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Abstract Decomposing the responses of ecosystem structure and function in drylands to changes in human-environmental forcing is a pressing challenge. Though trend detection studies are extensive, these studies often fail to attribute them to potential spatiotemporal drivers. Most attribution studies use a single empirical model or a causal graph that cannot be generalized or extrapolated to larger scales or account for spatial changes and multiple independent processes. Here, we proposed and tested a multi-stage, multi-model framework that detects vegetation trends and attributes them to ten independent social-environmental system (SES) drivers in Kazakhstan (KZ). The time series segmented residual trend analysis showed that 45.71% of KZ experienced vegetation degradation, with land use change as the predominant contributor (22.54%; 0.54 million km2), followed by climate change and climate variability. Pixel-wise fitted Granger Causality and random forest models revealed that sheep & goat density and snow cover had dominant negative and positive impacts on vegetation in degraded areas, respectively. Overall, we attribute vegetation changes to SES driver impacts for 19.81% of KZ (out of 2.39 million km2). The identified vegetation degradation hotspots from this study will help identify locations where restoration projects could have a greater impact and achieve land degradation neutrality in KZ.

Many invasive shrubs in the eastern deciduous forests of the United States use the temporal niche before and after the native tree canopy leaf-on period (leafing out prior to most native species and retaining leaves after most natives senesce) to establish in the light-limited environment of the understory. To support an increased understanding of invasive shrub species’ ecology and distribution patterns and inform better management plans, this key phenological difference needs to be characterized in detail. Here we leveraged the high-resolution observations from the French-Israel VENµS mission to examine the phenological characteristics of a widespread invasive shrub species—Amur honeysuckle (AH; Lonicera maackii (Rupr.) Herder)—compared to native deciduous trees in Robinson Forest, Kentucky. VENµS offered daily superspectral (12 narrow bands) observations at 4 m resolution in a limited number of global sites, providing us with crucial data for the analysis. We identified three forest communities with respect to AH presence through field surveys (i.e., uninvaded forest stands, forest stands with AH understory, and AH shrub thickets) and compared their VENµS-derived spectral signatures and time series of vegetation indices. In 2023, AH shrub thickets greened up one month earlier than uninvaded forest stands (mid-March vs. mid-April). AH leaf growth advanced into full green before the canopy tree greenup started in early April, marking an optimal window for isolating areas with AH understory from the uninvaded forest using remote sensing. Based on the phenological differences identified, we predicted the distribution of AH in the study area using a two-date differencing model and a spectral mixture analysis. Our detailed findings using VENµS data offer insights into the temporal dynamics of invasive shrubs and native trees in a typical eastern deciduous forest. While our prediction of the AH distribution was confounded by the presence of native early greening and/or evergreen understory plants at a few locations, it was still moderately accurate (overall accuracy ∼ 70 %) and its abundance estimates agreed with observations in forest stands with minimal native understory growth. Moving forward, high-resolution remote sensing observations combined with a phenology-based approach will likely support more precise monitoring and management of invasive understory plants in native forest ecosystems.

Abstract As billions of nocturnal avian migrants traverse North America, twice a year they must contend with landscape changes driven by natural and anthropogenic forces, including the rapid growth of the artificial glow of the night sky. While airspaces facilitate migrant passage, terrestrial landscapes serve as essential areas to restore energy reserves and often act as refugia—making it critical to holistically identify stopover locations and understand drivers of use. Here, we leverage over 10 million remote sensing observations to develop seasonal contiguous United States layers of bird migrant stopover density. In over 70% of our models, we identify skyglow as a highly influential and consistently positive predictor of bird migration stopover density across the United States. This finding points to the potential of an expanding threat to avian migrants: peri-urban illuminated areas may act as ecological traps at macroscales that increase the mortality of birds during migration.

Increasing agricultural production is essential for reducing food insecurity, which continues to be a major challenge faced by many developing countries. Here, we examine agricultural production—both crop and livestock—in association with demographic and climate changes from 1990 through 2014 in Kyrgyzstan, an understudied, disadvantaged, mountainous Central Asian country that experienced dramatic changes in political and market structures, rapid demographic changes, and climatic changes during the study period. Results indicate that crop and livestock productions, which are correlated with food security, experienced dramatic changes in the study period. The total fertility rate was found to have a negative association with livestock production. Precipitation and temperature measures had statistically significant and strong correlations with both crop and livestock productions, but their significance diminished dramatically when considered together with socioeconomic factors, regional variation, and temporal change. There were strong correlations among demographic, climatic, and socioeconomic factors, making it challenging to separate their individual attributions to the changes of agricultural production. Overall, a wetter and colder climate was associated with agricultural production increases. However, the growing season from 1991 through 2014 in Kyrgyzstan has become drier and hotter, challenging future agricultural production. This study provides insights into agricultural production and food security in relation to demographic and climate changes in Central Asia.

Climate oscillation modes can shape weather across the globe due to atmospheric teleconnections. We built on the findings of a recent study to assess whether the impacts of teleconnections are detectable and significant in the early season dynamics of highland pastures across five rayons in Kyrgyzstan. Specifically, since land surface phenology (LSP) has already shown to be influenced by snow cover seasonality and terrain, we investigated here how much more explanatory and predictive power information about climatic oscillation modes might add to explain variation in LSP. We focused on seasonal values of five climate oscillation indices that influence vegetation dynamics in Central Asia. We characterized the phenology in highland pastures with metrics derived from LSP modeling using Landsat NDVI time series together with MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data: Peak Height (PH), the maximum modeled NDVI and Thermal Time to Peak (TTP), the quantity of accumulated growing degree-days based on LST required to reach PH. Next, we calculated two metrics of snow cover seasonality from MODIS snow cover composites: last date of snow (LDoS), and the number of snow covered dates (SCD). For terrain features, we derived elevation, slope, and TRASP index as linearization of aspect. First, we used Spearman’s rank correlation to assess the geographical differentiation of land surface phenology metrics responses to environmental variables. PH showed weak correlations with TTP (positive in western but negative in eastern rayons), and moderate relationships with LDoS and SCD only in one northeastern rayon. Slope was weakly related to PH, while TRASP showed a consistent moderate negative correlation with PH. A significant but weak negative correlation was found between PH and SCAND JJA, and a significant weak positive correlation with MEI MAM. TTP showed consistently strong negative relationships with LDoS, SCD, and elevation. Very weak positive correlations with TTP were found for EAWR DJF, AMO DJF, and MEI DJF in western rayons only. Second, we used Partial Least Squares regression to investigate the role of oscillation modes altogether. PLS modelling of TTP showed that thermal time accumulation could be explained mostly by elevation and snow cover metrics, leading to reduced models explaining 55 to 70% of observed variation in TTP. Variable selection indicated that NAO JJA, AMO JJA and SCAND MAM had significant relationships with TTP, but their input of predictive power was neglible. PLS models were able to explain up to 29% of variability in PH. SCAND JJA and MEI MAM were shown to be significant predictors, but adding them into models did not influence modeling performance. We concluded the impacts of climate oscillation anomalies were not detectable or significant in mountain pastures using LSP metrics at fine spatial resolution. Rather, at a 30 m resolution, the indirect effects of seasonal climatic oscillations are overridden by terrain influences (mostly elevation) and snow cover timing. Whether climate oscillation mode indices can provide some new and useful information about growing season conditions remains a provocative question, particularly in light of the multiple environmental challenges facing the agropastoralism livelihood in montane Central Asia.

Degradation in the highland pastures of the Kyrgyz Republic, a small country in Central Asia, has been reported in several studies relying on coarse spatial resolution imagery, primarily MODIS. We used the results of land surface phenology modeling at higher spatial resolution to characterize spatial and temporal patterns of phenometrics indicative of the seasonal peak in herbaceous vegetation. In particular, we explored whether proximity to villages was associated with substantial decreases in the seasonal peak values. We found that terrain features—elevation and aspect—modulated the strength of the influence of village proximity on the phenometrics. Moreover, using contrasting hotter/drier and cooler/wetter years, we discovered that the growing season weather can interact with aspect to attenuate the negative influences of dry conditions on seasonal peak values. As these multiple contingent and interactive factors that shape the land surface phenology of the highland pastures may be blurred and obscured in coarser spatial resolution imagery, we discuss some limitations with prior and recent studies of pasture degradation.

The new Moment Distance (MD) framework uses the backscattering profile captured in waveform LiDAR data to characterize the complicated waveform shape and highlight specific regions within the waveform extent. To assess the strength of the new metric for LiDAR application, we use the full-waveform LVIS data acquired over La Selva, Costa Rica in 1998 and 2005. We illustrate how the Moment Distance Index (MDI) responds to waveform shape changes due to variations in signal noise levels. Our results show that the MDI is robust in the face of three different types of noise—additive, uniform additive, and impulse. In effect, the correspondence of the MDI with canopy quasi-height was maintained, as quantified by the coefficient of determination, when comparing original to noise-affected waveforms. We also compare MDIs from noise-affected waveforms to MDIs from smoothed waveforms and found that windows of 1% to 3% of the total wave counts can effectively smooth irregularities on the waveform without risking of the omission of small but important peaks, especially those located in the waveform extremities. Finally, we find a stronger positive relationship of MDI with canopy quasi-height than with the conventional area under curve (AUC) metric, e.g., r2 = 0.62 vs. r2 = 0.35 for the 1998 data and r2 = 0.38 vs. r2 = 0.002 for the 2005 data.

There have been few approaches developed for the estimation of height using waveform LiDAR data. Unlike any existing methods, we illustrate how the new Moment Distance (MD) framework can characterize the canopy height based on the geometry and return power of the LiDAR waveform without having to go through curve modeling processes. Our approach offers the possibilities of using the raw waveform data to capture vital information from the variety of complex waveform shapes in LiDAR. We assess the relationship of the MD metrics to the key waveform landmarks—such as locations of peaks, power of returns, canopy heights, and height metrics—using synthetic data and real Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS) data. In order to verify the utility of the new approach, we use field measurements obtained through the DESDynI (Deformation, Ecosystem Structure and Dynamics of Ice) campaign. Our results reveal that the MDI can capture temporal dynamics of canopy and segregate generations of stands based on curve shapes. The method satisfactorily estimates the canopy height using the synthetic (r2 = 0.40) and the LVIS dataset (r2 = 0.74). The MDI is also comparable with existing RH75 (relative height at 75%) and RH50 (relative height at 50%) height metrics. Furthermore, the MDI shows better correlations with ground-based measurements than relative height metrics. The MDI performs well at any type of waveform shape. This opens the possibility of looking more closely at single-peaked waveforms that usually carries complex extremes.

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is a biotically important region of grassland, wetland, and cropland that traverses the Canada-US border. Significant amounts of grasslands and wetlands within the PPR have been converted to croplands in recent years due to increasing demand for biofuels. We characterized land dynamics across the US portion of the PPR (US–PPR) using the USDA Crop Data Layer (CDL) for 2006–2018. We also conducted a comparative analysis between two epochs (1998–2007 & 2008–2017) of the CDL data time series in the North Dakotan portion of the US–PPR. The CDL revealed the western parts of the US–PPR have been dominated by grass/pasture, to the north it was spring wheat, to the east and southern half, soybeans dominated, and to the south it was corn (maize). Nonparametric trend analysis on the major crop and land cover types revealed statistically significant net decreases in the grass/pasture class between 2006 and 2018, which accounts for more than a quarter of grass/pasture area within the US–PPR. Other crops experiencing significant decreases included sunflower (-5%), winter wheat (-3%), spring wheat (-2%), and durum wheat (-1%). The combined coverage of corn and soybeans exhibited significant net increases in 23.5% of its cover; whereas, the individual significant net increases were 5% for corn and 11% for soybeans. Hotspots of increase in corn and soybeans were distributed across North and South Dakota. Other crop/land covers with huge significant increases include other hay/non-alfalfa (15%), and alfalfa (11%), which appear to be associated with the sharp increase in larger dairy operations, mostly in Minnesota. Wetland area increased 5% in the US–PPR, due to increased precipitation as well as inundation associated with Devils Lake in North Dakota. Hotspots of decreasing grass/pasture area were evident across the study area. Comparative trend analysis of two epochs (1998–2007 vs. 2008–2017) in North Dakota revealed that grass/pasture cover showed a negligible net trend (-0.3 %) between 1998 and 2007; whereas, there was a statistically significant decrease of more than 30% between 2008 and 2017. Combined coverage of corn and soybeans experienced statistically significant net increases in both epochs: 11% greater during 1998–2007 and 17% greater during 2008–2017. Recent sharp losses of grasslands and smaller wetlands combined the expansion of corn, soybeans, and alfalfa bode ill for wildlife habitat and require a re-examination of agricultural and energy policies that have encouraged these land transitions.

Study Region: Brahmaputra River basin in South Asia.Study Focus: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to evaluate sensitivities and patterns in freshwater availability due to projected climate and land use changes in the Brahmaputra basin. The daily observed discharge at Bahadurabad station in Bangladesh was used to calibrate and validate the model and analyze uncertainties with a sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm. The sensitivities and impacts of projected climate and land use changes on basin hydrological components were simulated for the A1B and A2 scenarios and analyzed relative to a baseline scenario of 1988–2004.New hydrological insights for the region: Basin average annual ET was found to be sensitive to changes in CO2 concentration and temperature, while total water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were sensitive to changes in precipitation. The basin hydrological components were predicted to increase with seasonal variability in response to climate and land use change scenarios. Strong increasing trends were predicted for total water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge, indicating exacerbation of flooding potential during August–October, but strong decreasing trends were predicted, indicating exacerbation of drought potential during May–July of the 21st century. The model has potential to facilitate strategic decision making through scenario generation integrating climate change adaptation and hazard mitigation policies to ensure optimized allocation of water resources under a variable and changing climate. Keywords: Brahmaputra, Freshwater availability, SWAT, Streamflow, Climate change, Land use change

Land surface phenologies and seasonalities in the US Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) were characterized using land surface variables derived from the coarse spatial resolution (25 km) Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) blended data for 2003 to 2016 linked with the optically based USDA NASS Crop Data Layer (CDL) at a much finer spatial resolution. Two transects of AMSR pixels—one in east-central North Dakota and the other in eastern South Dakota—were selected for analysis. The AMSR data were grouped earlier (2003−2005, 2007) and later (2013−2016) to emphasize temporal change and to avoid data discontinuity in 2011−2012 and a major drought in 2006. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test on the CDL data revealed that area in grasslands and wetlands strongly decreased in both transects, while corn and soybean coverage strongly increased. In crop-dominated sites, the AMSR vegetation optical depth (VOD) time series caught the early spring growth, ploughing, and crop growth and senescence. In contrast, the VOD time series at grassland dominated sites exhibited a lower peak but extended growth period. Crop-dominated sites had significantly higher amplitude VODs in both periods and transects. Based on the paired two-sample t-test, neither the peak VOD amplitude nor the peak VOD timing measured in accumulated growing degree-days was significantly different between temporal groups in the North Dakota transect. In contrast, in South Dakota, both the peak VOD amplitude and its timing were significantly different with shifts to later peak timing during the 2013−2016 period. In addition, in South Dakota but not North Dakota, there were significantly earlier shifts in the timing of peak growing degree-days and peak precipitation water vapor. Both spatial and temporal changes in AMSR land surface variables are linked to shifts in land cover along the South Dakota transect as revealed in the CDL data. More research is required to understand the dynamics evident in the passive microwave time series.

Due to a rapid increase in accessible Earth observation data coupled with high computing and storage capabilities, multiple efforts over the past few years have aimed to map land use/land cover using image time series with promising outcomes. Here, we evaluate the comparative performance of alternative land cover classifications generated by using only (1) phenological metrics derived from either of two land surface phenology models, or (2) a suite of spectral band percentiles and normalized ratios (spectral variables), or (3) a combination of phenological metrics and spectral variables. First, several annual time series of remotely sensed data were assembled: Accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD) from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 8-day land surface temperature products, 2-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2), and the spectral variables from the Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2, as well as from the U.S. Landsat Analysis Ready Data surface reflectance products. Then, at each pixel, EVI2 time series were fitted using two different land surface phenology models: The Convex Quadratic model (CxQ), in which EVI2 = f(AGDD) and the Hybrid Piecewise Logistic Model (HPLM), in which EVI2 = f(day of year). Phenometrics and spectral variables were submitted separately and together to Random Forest Classifiers (RFC) to depict land use/land cover in Roberts County, South Dakota. HPLM RFC models showed slightly better accuracy than CxQ RFC models (about 1% relative higher in overall accuracy). Compared to phenometrically-based RFC models, spectrally-based RFC models yielded more accurate land cover maps, especially for non-crop cover types. However, the RFC models built from spectral variables could not accurately classify the wheat class, which contained mostly spring wheat with some fields in durum or winter varieties. The most accurate RFC models were obtained when using both phenometrics and spectral variables as inputs. The combined-variable RFC models overcame weaknesses of both phenometrically-based classification (low accuracy for non-vegetated covers) and spectrally-based classification (low accuracy for wheat). The analysis of important variables indicated that land cover classification for this study area was strongly driven by variables related to the initial green-up phase of seasonal growth and maximum fitted EVI2. For a deeper evaluation of RFC performance, RFC classifications were also executed with several alternative sampling scenarios, including different spatiotemporal filters to improve accuracy of sample pools and different sample sizes. Results indicated that a sample pool with less filtering yielded the most accurate predicted land cover map and a stratified random sample dataset covering approximately 0.25% or more of the study area were required to achieve an accurate land cover map. In case of data scarcity, a smaller dataset might be acceptable, but should not smaller than 0.05% of the study area.

The growing demand for biofuel production increased agricultural activities in South Dakota, leading to the conversion of grassland to cropland. Although a few land change studies have been conducted in this area, they lacked spatial details and were based on the traditional bi-temporal change detection that may return incorrect rates of conversion. This study aimed to provide a more complete view of land conversion in South Dakota using a trajectory-based analysis that considers the entire satellite-based land cover/land use time series to improve change detection. We estimated cropland expansion of 5447 km2 (equivalent to 14% of the existing cropland area) between 2007 and 2015, which matches much more closely the reports from the National Agriculture Statistics Service—NASS (5921 km2)—and the National Resources Inventory—NRI (5034 km2)—than an estimation from the bi-temporal approach (8018 km2). Cropland gains were mostly concentrated in 10 counties in northern and central South Dakota. Urbanizing Lincoln County, part of the Sioux Falls metropolitan area, is the only county with a net loss in cropland area over the study period. An evaluation of land suitability for crops using the Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) indicated a scarcity in high-quality arable land available for cropland expansion.

We present the Moment Distance (MD) method to advance spectral analysis in vegetation studies. It was developed to take advantage of the information latent in the shape of the reflectance curve that is not available from other spectral indices. Being mathematically simple but powerful, the approach does not require any curve transformation, such as smoothing or derivatives. Here, we show the formulation of the MD index (MDI) and demonstrate its potential for vegetation studies. We simulated leaf and canopy reflectance samples derived from the combination of the PROSPECT and SAIL models to understand the sensitivity of the new method to leaf and canopy parameters. We observed reasonable agreements between vegetation parameters and the MDI when using the 600 to 750 nm wavelength range, and we saw stronger agreements in the narrow red-edge region 720 to 730 nm. Results suggest that the MDI is more sensitive to the Chl content, especially at higher amounts (Chl > 40 mg/cm2) compared to other indices such as NDVI, EVI, and WDRVI. Finally, we found an indirect relationship of MDI against the changes of the magnitude of the reflectance around the red trough with differing values of LAI.

Detecting spatial patterns of land surface phenology (LSP) with high spatial and temporal resolutions is crucial for accurately estimating phenological response and feedback to climate change and biogeochemical cycles. Numerous studies have revealed LSP across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) using a variety of coarse-resolution satellite data. However, detailed phenological spatial patterns along with changes of mountain topography remain poorly understood, which greatly limits efforts to predict the impacts of climate change on vegetation growth and ecosystem productivity in complex terrain regions. Combining Landsat 7 ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) and Landsat 8 OLI (Operational Land Imager) observations in overlapping zones of adjacent images, this study detected Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)-based LSP metrics at a spatial resolution of 30 m, and explored how LSP varied with topographic factors along a 2600 km belt transect of the central QTP. The results show that the greenup onset date showed a delayed tendency with the increase of elevation at a mean rate of 1.52 days/100 m, while the dormancy onset date indicated an advanced tendency at a mean rate of −0.59 days/100 m. In general, greenup onset date was later but dormancy onset date was earlier on shaded slopes than on sunlit slopes in the meadow area. By contrast, greenup onset date did not significantly depend on aspect in the steppe area, while dormancy onset date indicated a similar response to aspect in the steppe area with that in the meadow area. With regard to the effect of slope on vegetation phenology in the meadow area, greenup onset date was significantly delayed but dormancy onset date significantly advanced with the increase of slope on both north and south slopes. In the steppe area, however, the influence pattern of slope on vegetation phenology was the opposite. Essentially, effects of topographical parameters on LSP were controlled by temperature and moisture combinations in complex terrain.

Across Eastern Africa, croplands cover 45 million ha. The regional economy is heavily dependent on small holder traditional rain-fed peasant agriculture (up to 90%), which is vulnerable to extreme weather events such as drought and floods that leads to food insecurity. Agricultural production in the region is moisture limited. Weather station data are scarce and access is limited, while optical satellite data are obscured by heavy clouds limiting their value to study cropland dynamics. Here, we characterized cropland dynamics in Eastern Africa for 2003–2015 using precipitation data from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and a passive microwave dataset of land surface variables that blends data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) from 2002 to 2011 with data from AMSR2 from 2012 to 2015 with a Chinese microwave radiometer to fill the gap. These time series were analyzed in terms of either cumulative precipitable water vapor-days (CVDs) or cumulative actual evapotranspiration-days (CETaDs), rather than as days of the year. Time series of the land surface variables displayed unimodal seasonality at study sites in Ethiopia and South Sudan, in contrast to bimodality at sites in Tanzania. Interannual moisture variability was at its highest at the beginning of the growing season affecting planting times of crops, while it was lowest at the time of peak moisture. Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) from the simple surface energy balance (SSEB) model was sensitive to track both unimodal and bimodal rainfall patterns. ETa as a function of CETaD was better fitted by a quadratic model (r2 > 0.8) than precipitable water vapor was by CVDs (r2 > 0.6). Moisture time to peak (MTP) for the land surface variables showed strong, logical correspondence among variables (r2 > 0.73). Land surface parameters responded to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole forcings. Area under the curve of the diel difference in vegetation optical depth showed correspondence to crop production and yield data collected by local offices, but not to the data reported at the national scale. A long-term seasonal Mann–Kendall rainfall trend showed a significant decrease for Ethiopia, while the decrement was not significant for Tanzania. While there is significant potential for passive microwave data to augment cropland status and food security monitoring efforts in the region, more research is needed before these data can be used in an operational environment.

Planting and harvesting times drive cropland phenology. There are few datasets that derive explicit phenological metrics, and these datasets use the visible to near infrared (VNIR) spectrum. Many different methods have been used to derive phenometrics such as Start of Season (SOS) and End of Season (EOS), leading to differing results. This discrepancy is partly due to spatial and temporal compositing of the VNIR satellite data to minimize data gaps resulting from cloud cover, atmospheric aerosols, and solar illumination constraints. Phenometrics derived from the downward Convex Quadratic model (CxQ) include Peak Height (PH) and Thermal Time to Peak (TTP), which are more consistent than SOS and EOS because they are minimally affected by snow and frost and other non-vegetation related issues. Here, we have determined PH using the vegetation optical depth (VOD) in three microwave frequencies (6.925, 10.65 and 18.7 GHz) and accumulated growing degree-days derived from AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS) data at a spatial resolution of 25 km. We focus on 50 AMSR-E cropland pixels in the major grain production areas of Northern Eurasia (Ukraine, southwestern Russia, and northern Kazakhstan) for 2003–2010. We compared the land surface phenologies of AMSR-E VOD and MODIS NDVI data. VOD time series tracked cropland seasonal dynamics similar to that recorded by the NDVI. The coefficients of determination for the CxQ model fit of the NDVI data were high for all sites (0.78 < R2 < 0.99). The 10.65 GHz VOD (VOD1065GHz) achieved the best linear regression fit (R2 = 0.84) with lowest standard error (SEE = 0.128); it is therefore recommended for microwave VOD studies of cropland land surface phenology. Based on an Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) analysis, the slopes from the linear regression fit were not significantly different by microwave frequency, whereas the intercepts were significantly different, given the different magnitudes of the VODs. PHs for NDVI and VOD were highly correlated. Despite their strong correspondence, there was generally a lag of AMSR-E PH VOD10.65GHz by about two weeks compared to MODIS peak greenness. To evaluate the utility of the PH determination based on maximum value, we correlated the CxQ derived and maximum value determined PHs of NDVI and found that they were highly correlated with R2 of 0.87, but with a one-week bias. Considering the one-week bias between the two methods, we find that PH of VOD10.65GHz lags PH of NDVI by three weeks. We conclude, therefore, that maximum-value based PH of VOD can be a complementary phenometric for the CxQ model derived PH NDVI, especially in cloud and aerosol obscured regions of the world.

We demonstrate the synergistic use of surface air temperature retrieved from AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on Earth observing satellite) and two vegetation indices (VIs) from the shorter wavelengths of MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) to characterize cropland phenology in the major grain production areas of Northern Eurasia from 2003–2010. We selected 49 AMSR-E pixels across Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan, based on MODIS land cover percentage data. AMSR-E air temperature growing degree-days (GDD) captures the weekly, monthly, and seasonal oscillations, and well correlated with station GDD. A convex quadratic (CxQ) model that linked thermal time measured as growing degree-days to accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD) was fitted to each pixel’s time series yielding high coefficients of determination (0.88 ≤ r2 ≤ 0.98). Deviations of observed GDD from the CxQ model predicted GDD by site corresponded to peak VI for negative residuals (period of higher latent heat flux) and low VI at beginning and end of growing season for positive residuals (periods of higher sensible heat flux). Modeled thermal time to peak, i.e., AGDD at peak GDD, showed a strong inverse linear trend with respect to latitude with r2 of 0.92 for Russia and Kazakhstan and 0.81 for Ukraine. MODIS VIs tracked similar seasonal responses in time and space and were highly correlated across the growing season with r2 > 0.95. Sites at lower latitude (≤49°N) that grow winter and spring grains showed either a bimodal growing season or a shorter unimodal winter growing season with substantial inter-annual variability, whereas sites at higher latitude (≥56°N) where spring grains are cultivated exhibited shorter, unimodal growing seasons. Sites between these extremes exhibited longer unimodal growing seasons. At some sites there were shifts between unimodal and bimodal patterns over the study period. Regional heat waves that devastated grain production in 2007 in Ukraine and in 2010 in Russia and Kazakhstan appear clearly anomalous. Microwave based surface air temperature data holds great promise to extend to parts of the planet where the land surface is frequently obscured by clouds, smoke, or aerosols, and where routine meteorological observations are sparse or absent.

A primary impact of urbanization on the local climate is evident in the phenomenon recognized as the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. This urban thermal anomaly can increase the health risks of vulnerable populations to heat waves. The surface UHI results from emittance in the longer wavelengths of the thermal infrared; however, there are also urban anomalies that are detectable from radiance in the shorter wavelengths (3–5 micron) of the Middle Infrared (MIR). Radiance in the MIR can penetrate urban haze which frequently obscures urban areas by scattering visible and near infrared radiation. We analyzed seasonal and spatial variations in MIR for three Central European cities from 2003 through 2012 using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) band 23 (~4 micron) to evaluate whether MIR radiance could be used to characterize heat anomalies associated with urban areas. We examined the seasonality of MIR radiance over urban areas and nearby croplands and found that the urban MIR anomalies varied due to time of year: cropland MIR could be larger than urban MIR when there was more exposed soil at planting and harvest times. Further, we compared monthly mean MIR with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to analyze contrasts between urban and rural areas. We found that the seasonal dynamic range of the MIR could exceed that of the NDVI. We explored the linkage between meteorological data and MIR radiance and found a range of responses from strong to weak dependence of MIR radiance on maximum temperature and accumulated precipitation. Our results extend the understanding of the anomalous characteristics of urban areas within a rural matrix.

Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature dynamics play a prominent role in Asian summer monsoon variability. Two interactive climate modes of the Indo-Pacific—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole mode—modulate the amount of precipitation over India, in addition to precipitation over Africa, Indonesia, and Australia. However, this modulation is not spatially uniform. The precipitation in southern India is strongly forced by the Indian Ocean dipole mode and ENSO. In contrast, across northern India, encompassing the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins, the climate mode influence on precipitation is much less. Understanding the forcing of precipitation in these river basins is vital for food security and ecosystem services for over half a billion people. Using 28 years of remote sensing observations, we demonstrate that (i) the tropical west-east differential heating in the Indian Ocean influences the Ganges precipitation and (ii) the north-south differential heating in the Indian Ocean influences the Brahmaputra precipitation. The El Niño phase induces warming in the warm pool of the Indian Ocean and exerts more influence on Ganges precipitation than Brahmaputra precipitation. The analyses indicate that both the magnitude and position of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean are important drivers for precipitation dynamics that can be effectively summarized using two new indices, one tuned for each basin. These new indices have the potential to aid forecasting of drought and flooding, to contextualize land cover and land use change, and to assess the regional impacts of climate change.

Urban heat islands (UHIs) have been long studied using both ground-based observations of air temperature and remotely sensed thermal infrared (TIR) data. While ground-based observations lack spatial detail even in the occasional “dense” urban network, skin temperature retrievals using TIR data have lower temporal coverage due to revisit frequency, limited swath width, and cloud cover. Algorithms have recently been developed to retrieve near-surface air temperatures using microwave radiometer data, which enables characterization of UHIs in metropolitan areas, major conurbations, and global megacities at regional to continental scales using temporally denser time series than those that have been available from TIR sensors. Here we examine how UHIs appear across the entire Western Hemisphere using surface air temperatures derived from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometers (AMSRs), AMSR-E onboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Aqua and AMSR2 onboard the Japan Aerospace eXploration Agency’s Global Change Observation Mission-Water1 (JAXA’s GCOM-W1) satellites. We compare these data with station observations from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) for 27 major cities across North America (in 83 urban-rural groupings) to demonstrate the capability of microwave data in a UHI study. Two measures of thermal time, accumulated diurnal and nocturnal degree-days, are calculated from the remotely sensed surface air temperature time series to characterize the urban-rural thermal differences over multiple growing seasons. Daytime urban thermal accumulations from the microwave data were sometimes lower than in adjacent rural areas. In contrast, station observations showed consistently higher day and night thermal accumulations in cities. UHIs are more pronounced at night, with 55% (AMSRs) and 93% (GHCN) of urban-rural groupings showing higher accumulated nocturnal degree-days in cities. While urban-rural thermal gradients may vary according to different datasets or locations, day-night differences in thermal time metrics were consistently lower (>90% of urban-rural groupings) in urban areas than in rural areas for both datasets. We propose that the normalized difference accumulated thermal time index (NDATTI) is a more robust metric for comparative UHI studies than simple temperature differences because it can be calculated from either station or remotely sensed data and it attenuates latitudinal effects.

Traditional studies of urban climate used air temperature observations from local urban/rural weather stations in order to analyze the general pattern of higher temperatures in urban areas compared with corresponding rural regions, also known as the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. More recently, satellite remote sensing datasets of land surface temperature have been exploited to monitor UHIs. While closely linked, air temperature and land surface temperature (LST) observations do not measure the same variables. Here we analyze land surface temperature vs. air temperature-based characterization and seasonality of the UHI and the surface UHI (SUHI) from 2003 to 2012 over the Upper Midwest region of the United States using LST from MODIS, and air temperature from the Daymet modeled gridded daily air temperature dataset, and compare both datasets to ground station data from first-order weather stations of the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) located in eleven urban areas spanning our study region. We first convert the temperature data to metrics of nocturnal, diurnal, and daily thermal time and their annual accumulations to draw conclusions on nighttime vs. daytime and seasonal dynamics of the UHI. In general, the MODIS LST-derived results are able to capture urban–rural differences in daytime, nighttime, and daily thermal time while the Daymet air temperature-derived results show very little urban–rural differences in thermal time. Compared to the GHCN ground station air temperature-derived observations, MODIS LST-derived results are closer in terms of urban–rural differences in nighttime thermal time, while the results from Daymet are closer to the observations from GHCN during the daytime. We also found differences in the seasonal dynamics of UHIs measured by air temperature observations and SUHIs measured by LST observations.