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The representation of the snow cover dynamics (including accumulation, redistribution, and compaction), due to their impact on the snow-albedo feedback, poses the central deficiency in distributed mass balance models for most temperate and land-terminating glaciers. Data quantity and quality both from ground measurements and from remote sensor systems have not yet been sufficient to resemble these actual processes on a glacier scale until now. This limits the calibration and evaluation of distributed mass balance models.Yet, we installed a permanently terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) system at the Hintereisferner glacier (Ötztal Alps, Austria), which provides a daily digital elevation model (DEM). These DEMs with an accuracy of about ±10 cm can serve as calibration and validation data of distributed glacier mass balance models.We present a case study of snow cover dynamics between 6 and 9 February 2021. Snow fall of approximately 50 cm was registered and moderate wind speeds were measured on these days. Furthermore, wind-blown snow and small avalanches are visible on the webcam pictures. Three high-quality DEMs (e.g. no clouds) were taken on these days. The snow fall and snow redistribution thereafter can be reconstructed with the these DEMs and data from automatic weather stations on Hintereisferner and its surrounding slopes. To support the process analysis, we simulated the case study days with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with a high-resolution setup of dx=48m. A recently implemented snow drift module allows to assess and understand wind-driven snow redistribution on the glacier.This high-resolution set-up, both on the observational and modelling side, allows an improved understanding of snow distribution over glaciers and has the potential to be applied at other glaciers as well.

In the hydrological year 2021/22 Alpine glaciers showed unprecedented mass loss. On Hintereisferner (Ötztal Alps, Austria), the glacier-wide mass balance was −3319 kg m−2. Near-daily observations of surface elevation changes from a permanent terrestrial laser scanning setup allowed determining the day when the mass balance of Hintereisferner started to become negative. This Glacier Loss Day (GLD) was already reached on 24 June in 2022 and gave way to a long ice ablation period. In 2021/22, this and the high cumulative positive degree days explain the record mass loss. By comparing the GLDs of 2019/20–2021/22, we found a gross yet expressive indicator of the glacier’s imbalance with the persistently warming climate.

A permanent long-range terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) system is installed at Hintereisferner, Ötztal Alps, Austria to validate snow cover dynamics such as simulated by high-resolution atmospheric models.Snow cover dynamics include several processes such as snow fall, compaction, metamorphism, snow redistribution by wind, avalanches and melt manifested in specific magnitudes and frequencies. To be able to quantify these surface changes, the smallest possible magnitude that can be measured by the TLS needs to be known.An uncertainty analysis of the system has been conducted acquiring its limitations. It was known before that atmospheric conditions, the scanning geometry and mechanical properties contribute to the total uncertainty, but so far, these error sources and the total uncertainty had not been quantified.It was assumed that the position of the TLS was stationary and thus, the georeferencing of the scan was automated with an unchanged transformation matrix. A case study of 29 hourly scans during 5 and 6 November 2020, with no surface changes due to external conditions, showed vertical differences between -0.62 m and +0.47 m relative to a selected reference scan. These deviations are related to ongoing minor movements of the scanner over the scope of day and result in errors of a few decimetres due to the long range acquisition.The accuracy of the scans improves after manual georeferencing (RiSCAN PRO), resulting in smaller deviations between -0.15 and +0.04 m relative to the selected reference scan.The total accuracy of the TLS system is ±10 cm (vertical direction) after manual georeferencing, but strongly depends on the range between target surface and TLS. This makes it possible to detect snow fall events, snow redistribution, melt, and avalanches with changes larger than one decimeter. Snow compaction and metamorphism are processes, which are over hourly to daily time steps too small to be detected by the TLS at Hintereisferner.Over all, the determined accuracy of the TLS shows the suitability of the system setup for validating high-resolution atmospheric models that explicitly compute snow redistribution by wind and thus significantly will improve the treatment of snow cover dynamics in future glacier mass balance research.

Elevation gradients of meteorological variables in mountains are of interest to a number of scientific disciplines and often required as parameters in modeling frameworks. Measurements of such gradients on glaciers, however, are particularly scarce and strongly skewed towards the midlatitudes and valley glaciers. This article adds a tropical perspective and presents 4 years of overlapping measurements at 5603 and 5873 m on Kersten Glacier, Kilimanjaro (East Africa), between 2009 and 2013. Mean gradients in near-surface air temperature (T), water vapor pressure (VP), and snow accumulation (ACC) per 100 m elevation are −0.75 ∘C, −0.16 hPa, and -114±16 mm w.e. yr−1, respectively. An intriguing feature is a strong diurnal cycle of the T and VP gradients, which are (depending on season) 2–4 times larger between early and late morning than in the hours of weak gradients. The ACC decrease with elevation, furthermore, is mostly the result of a lower recorded frequency of ACC events at the upper measurement site and not due to contrasting amounts at the two altitudes during events. A novel facet of our study is the linking of measured on-glacier gradients to a high-resolution atmospheric modeling data set, which reveals the importance of the mesoscale atmospheric circulation. A thermally direct circulation is established over the mountain in response to diabatic surface heating or cooling with upslope flow during the day and downslope flow in the night. This persistent circulation communicates heat and moisture changes in the lowlands to the higher elevations during morning and early afternoon, which is evident in the advection patterns of potential temperature and VP, and shapes the time variability in gradients as recorded by our weather stations on the glacier. A few local processes seem to matter as well (glacier sublimation, turbulent heat fluxes), yet they show a secondary influence only during limited time windows. Atmospheric model data also demonstrate that declining moist entropy and water vapor fluxes in the summit zone favor formation of the negative ACC gradient. The results extend the empirical basis of elevation gradients in high mountains, in particular over glacier surfaces, by the unusual case of a slope glacier on an equatorial, free-standing massif. Our measurement–model link, moreover, demonstrates an approach for future studies to put observations of elevation gradients more systematically in a multiscale process context.

The International Association of Cryospheric Sciences (IACS) became the eighth and most recent association of IUGG at the general assembly in Perugia, Italy, in July 2007. IACS was launched in recognition of the importance of the cryosphere within the Earth system, particularly at a time of significant global change. It was the first new association of the union to be formed in over 80 years and IACS celebrated its 10th anniversary only a year before the IUGG centennial. The forbearers of IACS, however, stretch back even further than IUGG, starting with the formation of the Commission Internationale des Glaciers (CIG) by the International Geological Congress in 1894. Here we record the history of the transition from CIG to IACS, the scientific objectives that drove activities and changes, and some of the key events and individuals involved.

Terrestrial laser scanners (TLSs) are increasingly used to monitor glaciers. Recent developments enabled longer ranged and more frequent measurements. The quality of these high resolution topography data, especially in high mountain environments, has not been assessed in detail up to now. An automated and permanent long-range TLS system is installed at Hintereisferner glacier (Ötztal, Austria) with the aim to detect changing snow surface patterns due to wind drift.The scanner is controlled from Innsbruck and data is transferred daily. The system covers 66.5% of the glacier area and scans can be conducted on demand in very high frequency (e.g. daily or hourly measurements). The measurement distances range between 660 and 4600 m and with an angular step width of 0.01° (vertical and horizontal), this leads to a point spacing of 35 cm at a distance of 2 km and a resulting point cloud of approx. 43 million points. The point cloud is converted into grids with a 1 meter resolution.Two main error sources of the system are indentified. First, the TLS used at Hintereisferner, a Riegl VZ-6000 is influenced by movements that cannot be corrected with the internal inclination sensors of the scanner. Small fluctuations in the roll and pitch of the scanner (ca. ±0.02°) result in deviations in decimetre range on the glacier. The movement of the scanner increases with increasing turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) measured with a nearby 3D sonic anemometer.Second, atmospheric conditions at the glacier influence the laser beam way. The TLS operates by emitting light pulses and measuring the time of flight for the pulse to return. The pulse travel time changes depending on the atmospheric properties. The changes of pressure, temperature and humidity in the atmosphere differ from accumulation zone to glacier tongue and influence the pathway between TLS and the glacier surface, leading to an uncertainty in the scanning data in centimetre range.The permanent and automated long-range TLS system promises high potential for the glaciological and environmental sciences, given the decimetre accuracy at a high spatiotemporal resolution. The first results of permanent TLS system at Hintereisferner show the ability to detect changing snow surface patterns and indicate the possibility of geodetic glacier mass balance acquisition.

Glacier mass loss is a key contributor to sea-level change1,2, slope instability in high-mountain regions3,4 and the changing seasonality and volume of river flow5–7. Understanding the causes, mechanisms and time scales of glacier change is therefore paramount to identifying successful strategies for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we use temperature and precipitation fields from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 output to force a glacier evolution model, quantifying mass responses to future climatic change. We find that contemporary glacier mass is in disequilibrium with the current climate, and 36 ± 8% mass loss is already committed in response to past greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, mitigating future emissions will have only very limited influence on glacier mass change in the twenty-first century. No significant differences between 1.5 and 2 K warming scenarios are detectable in the sea-level contribution of glaciers accumulated within the twenty-first century. In the long-term, however, mitigation will exert strong control, suggesting that ambitious measures are necessary for the long-term preservation of glaciers.

A comprehensive hydrometeorological and glaciological data set is presented, originating from a multitude of glaciological, meteorological, hydrological and laser scanning recordings at research sites in the Rofental (1891–3772 m a.s.l., Ötztal Alps, Austria). The data sets span a period of 150 years and hence represent a unique time series of rich high-altitude mountain observations. Their collection was originally initiated to support scientific investigation of the glaciers Hintereisferner, Kesselwandferner and Vernagtferner. Annual mass balance, glacier front variation, flow velocities and photographic records of the status of these glaciers were recorded. Later, additional measurements of meteorological and hydrological variables were undertaken, and over time a number of autonomous weather stations and runoff gauges were brought into operation; the available data now comprise records of temperature, relative humidity, short- and longwave radiation, wind speed and direction, air pressure, precipitation, and river water levels. Since 2001, a series of distributed (airborne and terrestrial) laser scans is available, along with associated digital surface models. In 2016 a permanent terrestrial laser scanner was installed on Im hintern Eis (3244 m a.s.l.) to continuously observe almost the entire area of Hintereisferner. The data and research undertaken at the sites of investigation in the Rofental area enable combined research of cryospheric, atmospheric and hydrological processes in complex terrain, and support the development of several state-of-the-art glacier mass balance and hydroclimatological models. The institutions taking part in the Rofental research framework promote their site in several international research initiatives. In INARCH (International Network for Alpine Research Catchment Hydrology, http://words.usask.ca/inarch), all original research data sets are now provided to the scientific community according to the Creative Commons Attribution License by means of the PANGAEA repository (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.876120).

A new and consistent time series of glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro over the last century has been established by re-interpreting two historical maps and processing nine satellite images, which removes uncertainty about the location and extent of past and present ice bodies. Three-dimensional visualization techniques were used in conjunction with aerial and ground-based photography to facilitate the interpretation of ice boundaries over eight epochs between 1912 and 2011. The glaciers have retreated from their former extent of 11.40 km2 in 1912 to 1.76 km2 in 2011, which represents a total loss of about 85% of the ice cover over the last 100 yr. The total loss of ice cover is in broad agreement with previous estimates, but to further characterize the spatial and temporal variability of glacier retreat a cluster analysis using topographical information (elevation, slope and aspect) was performed to segment the ice cover as observed in 1912, which resulted in three glacier zones being identified. Linear extrapolation of the retreat in each of the three identified glacier assemblages implies the ice cover on the western slopes of Kilimanjaro will be gone before 2020, while the remaining ice bodies on the plateau and southern slopes will most likely disappear by 2040. It is highly unlikely that any body of ice will be present on Kilimanjaro after 2060 if present-day climatological conditions are maintained. Importantly, the geo-statistical approach developed in this study provides us with an additional tool to characterize the physical processes governing glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro. It remains clear that, to use glacier response to unravel past climatic conditions on Kilimanjaro, the transition from growth to decay of the plateau glaciers must be further resolved, in particular the mechanisms responsible for vertical cliff development.

Records of glacier mass balance represent important data in climate science and their uncertainties affect calculations of sea level rise and other societally relevant environmental projections. In order to reduce and quantify uncertainties in mass balance series obtained by direct glaciological measurements, we present a detailed reanalysis workflow which was applied to the 10-year record (2004 to 2013) of seasonal mass balance of Langenferner, a small glacier in the European Eastern Alps. The approach involves a methodological homogenization of available point values and the creation of pseudo-observations of point mass balance for years and locations without measurements by the application of a process-based model constrained by snow line observations. We examine the uncertainties related to the extrapolation of point data using a variety of methods and consequently present a more rigorous uncertainty assessment than is usually reported in the literature. Results reveal that the reanalyzed balance record considerably differs from the original one mainly for the first half of the observation period. For annual balances these misfits reach the order of > 300 kg m−2 and could primarily be attributed to a lack of measurements in the upper glacier part and to the use of outdated glacier outlines. For winter balances respective differences are smaller (up to 233 kg m−2) and they originate primarily from methodological inhomogeneities in the original series. Remaining random uncertainties in the reanalyzed series are mainly determined by the extrapolation of point data to the glacier scale and are on the order of ±79 kg m−2 for annual and ±52 kg m−2 for winter balances with values for single years/seasons reaching ±136 kg m−2. A comparison of the glaciological results to those obtained by the geodetic method for the period 2005 to 2013 based on airborne laser-scanning data reveals that no significant bias of the reanalyzed record is detectable.

This study presents a reanalysis of the glaciologically obtained annual glacier mass balances at Hintereisferner, Ötztal Alps, Austria, for the period 2001–2011. The reanalysis is accomplished through a comparison with geodetically derived mass changes, using annual high-resolution airborne laser scanning (ALS). The grid-based adjustments for the method-inherent differences are discussed along with associated uncertainties and discrepancies of the two methods of mass balance measurements. A statistical comparison of the two datasets shows no significant difference for seven annual, as well as the cumulative, mass changes over the 10-year record. Yet, the statistical view hides significant differences in the mass balance years 2002/03 (glaciological minus geodetic records = +0.92 m w.e.), 2005/06 (+0.60 m w.e.), and 2006/07 (−0.45 m w.e.). We conclude that exceptional meteorological conditions can render the usual glaciological observational network inadequate. Furthermore, we consider that ALS data reliably reproduce the annual mass balance and can be seen as validation or calibration tools for the glaciological method.

Since the last complete glacier mapping of Mt. Kenya in 2004, strong glacier retreat and glacier disintegration have been reported. Here, we compile and present a new glacier inventory of Mt. Kenya to document recent glacier change. Glacier area and mass changes were derived from an orthophoto and digital elevation model extracted from Pléiades tri-stereo satellite images. We additionally explore the feasibility of using freely available imagery (Sentinel-2) and an alternative elevation model (TanDEM-X-DEM) for monitoring very small glaciers in complex terrain, but both proved to be inappropriate; Sentinel-2 because of its too coarse horizontal resolution compared to the very small glaciers, and TanDEM-X-DEM because of errors in the steep summit area of Mt. Kenya. During 2004–2016, the total glacier area on Mt. Kenya decreased by 121.0 × 10³ m² (44%). The largest glacier (Lewis) lost 62.8 × 10³ m² (46%) of its area and 1.35 × 10³ m³ (57%) of its volume during the same period. The mass loss of Lewis Glacier has been accelerating since 2010 due to glacier disintegration, which has led to the emergence of a rock outcrop splitting the glacier in two parts. If the current retreat rates prevail, Mt. Kenya’s glaciers will be extinct before 2030, implying the cessation of the longest glacier monitoring record of the tropics.

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climate variability in the tropical Andes, where recent Niño and Niña events left an observable footprint on glacier mass balance. The nature and strength of the relationship between ENSO and glacier mass balance, however, varies between regions and time periods, leaving several unanswered questions about its exact mechanisms. The starting point of this study is a 4-year long time series of distributed surface energy and mass balance (SEB/SMB) calculated using a process-based model driven by observations at Shallap Glacier (Cordillera Blanca, Peru). These data are used to calibrate a regression-based downscaling model that links the local SEB/SMB fluxes to atmospheric reanalysis variables on a monthly basis, allowing an unprecedented quantification of the ENSO influence on the SEB/SMB at climatological time scales (1980–2013, ERA-Interim period). We find a stronger and steadier anti-correlation between Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) and glacier mass balance than previously reported. This relationship is most pronounced during the wet season (December–May) and at low altitudes where Niño (Niña) events are accompanied with a snowfall deficit (excess) and a higher (lower) radiation energy input. We detect a weaker but significant ENSO anti-correlation with total precipitation (Niño dry signal) and positive correlation with the sensible heat flux, but find no ENSO influence on sublimation. Sensitivity analyses comparing several downscaling methods and reanalysis data sets resulted in stable mass balance correlations with Pacific SST but also revealed large uncertainties in computing the mass balance trend of the last decades. The newly introduced open-source downscaling tool can be applied easily to other glaciers in the tropics, opening new research possibilities on even longer time scales.

A comprehensive hydrometeorological and glaciological data set is presented, originating from a multitude of recordings at several intensively operated research sites in the Rofental (1891–3772 m a.s.l., Ötztal Alps, Austria). The data sets are spanning a period of 150 years and hence represent a unique, worldwide unprecedented pool of high mountain observations. Their collection has originally been initiated to support the scientific investigation of the glaciers Hintereis-, Kesselwand- and Vernagtferner. Later, additional measurements of meteorological and hydrological variables have been undertaken; data now comprise records of temperature, relative humidity, short- and longwave radiation, wind speed and direction, air pressure, precipitation and water levels. For the glaciers, annual mass balance, glacier front variation and flow velocities as well as photographic images of the glacier status have been recorded. Since 2001, a series of distributed (airborne and terrestrial) laserscans has been processed. Most recently, a permanent terrestrial laser scanner installed on "Im hintern Eis" (3244 m a.s.l.) enables to continuously observe almost the entire area of Hintereisferner. The data and research undertaken at the sites of investigation enable combined research of atmospheric, cryospheric and hydrological processes in complex terrain, and support the development of several state-of-the art hydroclimatological and glacier mass balance models. The institutions taking part in the Rofental research framework have joined to a cooperation consortium and promote their site in several international research initiatives. In the framework of INARCH, all original research data sets are now provided to the scientific community according to the Creative Commons Attribution License by means of the PANGAEA repository (https://doi.org/doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.876120).

This study presents a reanalysis of the glaciologically obtained 2001–11 annual glacier mass balances record at Hintereisferner, Ötztal Alps, Austria. The reanalysis is accomplished through a comparison with geodetically derived mass changes, using annual high-resolution airborne laser scanning (ALS). The grid based adjustments for the method-inherent differences are discussed along with associated uncertainties and discrepancies of the two forms of mass balance measurements. A statistical comparison of the two datasets shows no significant difference for seven annual as well as the cumulative mass changes over the ten years record. Yet, the statistical view hides significant differences in the mass balance years 2002/03 (glaciological minus geodetic records = +0.92 m w.e.), 2005/06 (+0.60 m w.e.) and 2006/07 (−0.45 m w.e.). The validity of the results is critically assessed and concludes that exceptional atmospheric circumstances can render the usual glaciological observational network inadequate. Furthermore, we consider that ALS data reliably reproduce the annual mass balance and can be seen as calibration tools of or, under certain circumstances, even as a substitute for the glaciological method.

Records of glacier mass balance represent important data in climate science and their uncertainties affect calculations of sea level rise and other societally relevant environmental projections. In order to reduce and quantify uncertainties in mass balance series obtained by direct glaciological measurements, we present a detailed reanalysis work-flow which was applied to the ten year record (2004 to 2013) of seasonal mass balance of Langenferner, a small glacier in the European Eastern Alps. The approach involves a methodological homogenization of available point values and the creation of pseudo-observations of point mass balance for years and locations without measurements by the application of a process-based model constrained by snow line observations. We examine the uncertainties related to the extrapolation of point data using a variety of methods, and consequently present a more rigorous uncertainty assessment than is usually reported in the literature. Results reveal that the reanalyzed balance record considerably differs from the original one mainly for the first half of the observation period. For annual balances these misfits reach the order of > 300 kg m−2 and could primarily be attributed to a lack of measurements in the upper glacier part and to the use of outdated glacier outlines. For winter balances respective differences are smaller (up to 233 kg m−2) and they originate primarily from methodological inhomogeneities in the original series. Remaining random uncertainties in the reanalized series are mainly determined by the extrapolation of point data to the glacier scale and are in the order of ±80 kg m−2 for annual and ±52 kg m−2 for winter balances with values for single years/seasons reaching ±13 kg m−2. A comparison of the glaciological results to those obtained by the geodetic method for the period 2005 to 2013 based on airborne laser scanning data, reveals that no significant bias of the reanalyzed record is detectable.

Estimating a glacier’s volume by inferring properties at depth (e.g. bed topography or basal slip) from properties observed at the surface (e.g. area and slope) creates a calculation instability that grows exponentially with the size of the glacier. Random errors from this inversion instability can overwhelm all other sources of error and can corrupt thickness and volume calculations, unless problematic short spatial wavelengths are specifically excluded. Volume/area scaling inherently filters these short wavelengths and automatically eliminates the instability, while numerical inversions can also give stable solutions by filtering the correct wavelengths explicitly, as is frequently done when ‘regularizing’ a model. Each of the scaling and numerical techniques has applications to which it is better suited, and there are trade-offs in resolution and accuracy; but when calculating volume, neither the modeling nor the scaling approach offers a fundamental advantage over the other. Both are significantly limited by the inherently ‘ill-posed’ inversion, and even though both provide stable volume solutions, neither can give unique solutions.

The Lewis Glacier on Mt Kenya is one of the best-studied tropical glaciers, but full understanding of the interaction of the glacier mass balance and its climatic drivers has been hampered by a lack of long-term meteorological data. Here we present 2.5 yr of meteorological data collected from the glacier surface from October 2009 to February 2012. The location of measurements is in the upper portion of Lewis Glacier, but this location experiences negative annual mass balance, and the conditions are comparable to those experienced in the lower ablation zones of South American glaciers in the inner tropics. In the context of other glaciated mountains of equatorial East Africa, the summit zone of Mt Kenya shows strong diurnal cycles of convective cloud development as opposed to the Rwenzoris, where cloud cover persists throughout the diurnal cycle, and Kilimanjaro, where clear skies prevail. Surface energy fluxes were calculated for the meteorological station site using a physical mass- and energy-balance model driven by measured meteorological data and additional input parameters that were determined by Monte Carlo optimization. Sublimation rate was lower than those reported on other tropical glaciers, and melt rate was high throughout the year, with the glacier surface reaching the melting point on an almost daily basis. Surface mass balance is influenced by both solid precipitation and air temperature, with radiation providing the greatest net source of energy to the surface. Cloud cover typically reduces the net radiation balance compared to clear-sky conditions, and thus the frequent formation of convective clouds over the summit of Mt Kenya and the associated higher rate of snow accumulation are important in limiting the rate of mass loss from the glacier surface. The analyses shown here form the basis for future glacier-wide mass and energy balance modeling to determine the climate proxy offered by the glaciers of Mt Kenya.

Original abstract: We explore the small-scale spatial and temporal transferability of model parameters between two points in the ablation zone of tropical Glaciar Shallap, Cordillera Blanca, Peru (9°S, -77° W; ~4800 m a.s.l.) in order to provide a robust assessment of the performance of a process-based glacier mass-balance model. Relative surface height change is calculated at hourly time-steps, and cumulative values are compared to surface height measurements made at irregular intervals (14–64 days) over the course of two continuous hydrological years (August 2006–August 2008). Best-performing parameter combinations were determined for each point from the outcome of 1000 model simulations for which parameters were varied randomly within a defined range. With these parameter combinations measurements for a specific location and time-span are well reproduced. Transferring the parameter combination as optimized for one location to the other location in the ablation zone increases the errors of modeled cumulative mass balance by 5–1326 mm ice eq.a-1. Transferring the parameter combinations as optimized for one year to the other year increases the modeled errors in cumulative mass balance by 18–3179 mm ice eq.a-1. Model errors generally increase during periods with frequent snowfall and snow cover. This could reflect either the inherent difficulty of modeling complex snow processes, or the inability of the model to correctly capture the pattern of albedo evolution at this site. The magnitude of errors associated with parameter transfer in space and time highlights the need for improving model performance for robust climatological and/or hydrological analyses on tropical glaciers. Artículo en acceso abierto Explora la transmisibilidad espacial y temporal a pequeña escala de los parámetros del modelo entre dos puntos en la zona de ablación del Glaciar Shallap tropical, Cordillera Blanca, Perú (9 ° S, -77 ° W; ~4800 msnm) para brindar una sólida evaluación del desempeño de un modelo de balance de masa de glaciares basado en procesos.

Pronounced hygric seasonality determines the regional climate and, thus, the characteristics of rain-fed agriculture in the Peruvian Callejón de Huaylas (Cordillera Blanca). Peasants in the Cuenca Auqui on the eastern slopes above the city of Huaraz attribute recently experienced challenges in agricultural production mainly to perceived changes in precipitation patterns. Statistical analyses of daily precipitation records at nearby Recuay (1964 to 2013) and Huaraz (1996 to 2013) stations do not corroborate the perceived changes. Either insufficient temporal resolution of available precipitation records or other environmental and sociopolitical factors impacting traditional farming methods may be the reason for the lack of concordance between the two information sources investigated in this study.

We present a minimal model of the glacier surface mass balance. The model relies solely on monthly precipitation and air temperatures as forcing. We first train the model individually for 15 glaciers with existing mass balance measurements. Based on a cross validation, we present a thorough assessment of the model's performance outside of the training period. The cross validation indicates that our model is robust, and our model's performance compares favorably to that from a less parsimonious model based on seasonal sensitivity characteristics. Then, the model is extended for application on glaciers without existing mass balance measurements. We cross validated the model again by withholding the mass balance information from each of the 15 glaciers above during the model training, in order to measure its performance on glaciers not included in the model training. This cross validation indicates that the model retains considerable skill even when applied on glaciers without mass balance measurements. As an exemplary application, the model is then used to reconstruct time series of interannual mass balance variability, covering the past two hundred years, for all glaciers in the European Alps contained in the extended format of the world glacier inventory. Based on this reconstruction, we present a spatially detailed attribution of the glaciers' mass balance variability to temperature and precipitation variability.

Although reliable figures are often missing, considerable detrimental changes due to shrinking glaciers are universally expected for water availability in river systems under the influence of ongoing global climate change. We estimate the contribution potential of seasonally delayed glacier melt water to total water availability in large river systems. We find that the seasonally delayed glacier contribution is largest where rivers enter seasonally arid regions and negligible in the lowlands of river basins governed by monsoon climates. By comparing monthly glacier melt contributions with population densities in different altitude bands within each river basin, we demonstrate that strong human dependence on glacier melt is not collocated with highest population densities in most basins.

Glaciers on Kilimanjaro’s highest peak, Kibo, are currently regarded as a persistent feature of the Holocene. Here we synthesize all available measurements, observations, and our understanding of current processes on Kibo — gained from intensive research over the past decade — to formulate an alternative hypothesis about the age of these ice fields. This suggests a shorter, discontinuous history of the tabular-shaped glaciers on Kibo’s plateau, where typical ‘life cycles’ of the ice may last only a few hundred years. If life cycles overlap, they are likely the cause of the observed steps in the plateau glaciers. Thus, it is likely that ice has come and gone repeatedly on Kibo’s summit plateau, throughout the Holocene. Such a cyclicity is supported by lake-derived proxy records.

Land-based ice cliffs are intriguing features at the margins of glaciers around the world, but little is known about mechanisms of their formation and maintenance. A review on those ice cliffs, which are mostly associated with dry calving events, is presented. The focus is on the persistent, rarely-calving ice cliffs on the plateau glaciers of Kibo, the main peak of the Kilimanjaro massif (3°S, 37°E), Tanzania. Areal glacier shrinkage on Africa’s highest peak is closely linked to the recession of these ice cliffs and in order to extract climate change details from the plateau glaciers on Kilimanjaro, the sensitivity of the cliffs to climate fluctuations must be understood. Modelling solar irradiance, in conjunction with on-site measurements, revealed that direct insolation is the reason for (1) the predominant zonal alignment of the ice cliffs and (2) their bimodal annual recession. The former peculiarity occurs because near the equator steep northand south-facing slopes receive only little solar energy, which prevents strong ablation. The bimodal recession pattern is caused by the particular annual path of the sun in the tropics, which either induces strong direct insolation on the Kilimanjaro ice cliffs from sunrise to sunset (“sunlit period”), or comparatively low (or no) direct insolation all day (“shaded period”). A 26 m high, 69° steep, and approximately south-facing sample cliff has been surveyed by terrestrial photogrammetry. The daily direct maximum insolation threshold between sunlit and shaded periods at the sample cliff is about 680 Wm-2. During the shaded period from March 4th to October 11th, where mean recession is only 1.4 cm/month, daily maximum insolation at the inclined sample cliff surface is below this threshold. During the sunlit period (mean recession rate ~13 cm/month) daily insolation maxima exceed this threshold.

Slope glaciers on Kilimanjaro (ca. 5000–6000 m MSL) reached their most recent maximum extent in the late nineteenth century (L19) and have receded since then. This study quantifies the climate signal behind the recession of Kersten Glacier, which generates information on climate change in the tropical midtroposphere between L19 and present. Multiyear meteorological measurements at 5873 m MSL serve to force and verify a spatially distributed model of the glacier’s mass balance (the most direct link between glacier behavior and atmospheric forcing). At present the glacier is losing mass (522 ± 105 kg m−2 yr−1), terminates at 5100 m, and the interannual variability of mass and energy budgets largely reflects variability in atmospheric moisture. Backward modeling of the L19 steady-state glacier extent (down to 4500 m) reveals higher precipitation (+160 to +240 mm yr−1), higher air humidity, and increased fractional cloud cover in L19 but no significant changes in local air temperature, air pressure, and wind speed. The atmosphere in the simulated L19 climate transfers more energy to the glacier surface through atmospheric longwave radiation and turbulent heat—but this is almost entirely balanced by the decrease in absorbed solar radiation (due to both increased cloudiness and higher surface albedo). Thus, the energy-driven mass loss per unit area (sublimation plus meltwater runoff) was not appreciably different from today. Higher L19 precipitation rates therefore dominated the mass budget and produced a larger glacier extent in the past.

Broadband radiation schemes (parameterizations) are commonly used tools in glacier mass-balance modelling, but their performance at high altitude in the tropics has not been evaluated in detail. Here we take advantage of a high-quality 2 year record of global radiation (G ) and incoming longwave radiation (L ↓) measured on Kersten Glacier, Kilimanjaro, East Africa, at 5873 m a.s.l., to optimize parameterizations of G and L ↓. We show that the two radiation terms can be related by an effective cloud-cover fraction neff , so G or L ↓ can be modelled based on neff derived from measured L ↓ or G, respectively. At neff = 1, G is reduced to 35% of clear-sky G, and L ↓ increases by 45–65% (depending on altitude) relative to clear-sky L ↓. Validation for a 1 year dataset of G and L ↓ obtained at 4850 m on Glaciar Artesonraju, Peruvian Andes, yields a satisfactory performance of the radiation scheme. Whether this performance is acceptable for mass-balance studies of tropical glaciers is explored by applying the data from Glaciar Artesonraju to a physically based mass-balance model, which requires, among others, G and L ↓ as forcing variables. Uncertainties in modelled mass balance introduced by the radiation parameterizations do not exceed those that can be caused by errors in the radiation measurements. Hence, this paper provides a tool for inclusion in spatially distributed mass-balance modelling of tropical glaciers and/or extension of radiation data when only G or L ↓ is measured.

Original abstract: A 41-year-long reconstructed annual mean glacier mass balance record from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, was investigated for its climate sensitivity toward temperature, humidity and precipitation, and its links with the large-scale atmospheric circulation. On interannual timescales precipitation variability appears to be the main driver for glacier mass balance fluctuations in the Cordillera Blanca. This is corroborated by an analysis of the relationship between mass balance variations and local- to regional-scale precipitation variability. Temperature tends to enhance precipitation in driving the mass balance signal, as dry years are often characterized by warm conditions, while wet years usually coincide with cold anomalies. In some years, however, warm and wet or cold and dry conditions coincide, under which circumstances temperature minimizes or even neutralizes the effects of precipitation. Surface energy balance studies have shown that changes in atmospheric humidity significantly affect the melt rates of tropical glaciers, but the lack of long and high-quality in-situ measurements precludes a detailed quantitative assessment of its role on interannual timescales in the Cordillera Blanca. Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific exert the dominant large-scale forcing on interannual time scales, leading to negative mass balance anomalies during El Nino and above average mass balance during La Nina episodes. In general the teleconnection mechanism linking ENSO with glacier mass balance is similar to what has previously been described for the Bolivian Altiplano region. Changes in the upper-tropospheric zonal flow aloft associated with ENSO conditions determine the amount of snowfall during the wet season and thereby significantly affect the glacier mass balance. Because this teleconnection mechanism is spatially unstable and oscillates latitudinally along the subtropical Andes, it affects the Cordillera Blanca in most, but not all years. The relationship between ENSO and glacier mass balance is therefore characterized by occasional ‘break downs’, more common since the mid-1970's, when El Nino years with above average mass balance and La Nina events with negative mass balance have been observed.

Meteorological and glaciological measurements obtained at 5873 m a.s.l. on Kersten Glacier, a slope glacier on the southern flanks of Kilimanjaro, are used to run a physically-based mass balance model for the period February 2005 to January 2006. This shows that net shortwave radiation is the most variable energy flux at the glacier-atmosphere interface, governed by surface albedo. The majority of the mass loss (∼65%) is due to sublimation (direct conversion of snow/ice to water vapour), with melting of secondary importance. Sensitivity experiments reveal that glacier mass balance is 2–4 times more sensitive to a 20% precipitation change than to a 1 °C air temperature change. These figures also hold when the model is run with input data representative of a longer term (1979–2004) mean period. Results suggest that a regional-scale moisture projection for the 21st century is crucial to a physically-based prediction of glacier retention on Africa's highest mountain. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

Monthly runoff from the 34.3% glacierized tropical catchment of Llanganuco in the tropical Cordillera Blanca, Peru, is successfully simulated and compared with a measured 44 year time series. In the investigation area, the climate is characterized by all-year round homogenous temperature conditions and a strong variability in air humidity and moisture content of the atmosphere. Thus, contrary to the mid latitudes, the seasonal variation in glacier melt strongly depends on moisture-related variables, rather than on air temperature. The here presented ITGG-2.0-R model aims for these requirements. The lack of moisture-related input data other than precipitation demands for an intermediate calibration step. Net shortwave radiation, the emissivity of the atmosphere and a sublimation/melt ratio are related to precipitation amounts. Runoff is well simulated and correlates with the measured record with r 2 = 0.76. Seasonally obtained r 2 are only slightly smaller. On a long-term, the cumulative deviation is minor, and the mean annual cycle of runoff is reproduced rather well ( r 2 = 0.99). Based on four different IPCC climate change scenarios, future runoff is simulated. All runoff scenarios are modelled for the respective steady-state glacier extent. This leads to a reduction in the glacier size and a decreased amount of glacier melt. On the other hand, direct runoff increases due to larger glacier free areas. Consequently, mean annual runoff remains almost unchanged, but the seasonality intensifies considerably with more runoff during the wet and less runoff during the dry season.

Eddy covariance data collected over a horizontal surface on the largest ice body on Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, over 26–29 July 2005 were used to assess the uncertainty of calculating sublimation with a surface energy balance (SEB) model. Data required for input to the SEB model were obtained from an existing automatic weather station. Surface temperatures that were solved iteratively by the SEB model were used to compute emitted longwave radiation, turbulent heat fluxes using the aerodynamic bulk method and the subsurface heat flux. Roughness lengths for momentum and temperature, which were found to be the most important input parameters controlling the magnitude of modelled (bulk method) turbulent heat fluxes, were obtained using eddy covariance data. The roughness length for momentum was estimated to be 1.7×10–3 m, while the length for temperature was one order of magnitude smaller. Modelled sensible and latent heat fluxes (bulk method) compared well to eddy covariance data, with root-mean-square differences between 3.1 and 4.8 Wm–2 for both turbulent heat fluxes. Modelled sublimation accounted for about 90% of observed ablation, confirming that mass loss by melting is much less important than sublimation on the horizontal surfaces of the remaining plateau glaciers on Kilimanjaro.

In recent years, Kilimanjaro and its vanishing glaciers have become an ‘icon’ of global warming, attracting broad interest. In this paper, a synopsis of (a) field observations made by the authors and (b) climatic data as reported in the literature (proxy and long-term instrumental data) is presented to develop a new concept for investigating the retreat of Kilimanjaro's glaciers, based on the physical understanding of glacier–climate interactions. The concept considers the peculiarities of the mountain and implies that climatological processes other than air temperature control the ice recession in a direct manner. A drastic drop in atmospheric moisture at the end of the 19th century and the ensuing drier climatic conditions are likely forcing glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro. Future investigations using the concept as a governing hypothesis will require research at different climatological scales. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society

A 41 years series of runoff and precipitation data from the Peruvian Cordillera Blanca demonstrates the high hygric seasonality in this tropical high mountain range. In this area, glaciers have a crucial impact on runoff which is of essential importance for the highly populated and cultivated valley of the Callejon de Huaylas particularly during the dry season. Whereas the mid latitudes glacier runoff amplifies the seasonal variation of runoff, the effect of glaciers in the low latitudes is a smoothing one. It decreases clearly with the decreasing degree of glaciation. In addition, particular circumstances of this tropical environment allow the reconstruction of a glacier mass balance history from the hydrological data for the second half of the 20th century. It shows a high synchronicity with the global trend of periods with glacier mass loss and gain. Comparison with length variations of three individual glaciers indicate a rather fast reaction of these glaciers to changes in mass balance. Although the mass balance variations show some differences among the individual catchment basins, the over all trend is uniform. A general positive correlation of mass balance variations with SOI is obvious but not regular.

Based on (i) the observation of spatially differential glacier retreats in the tropical Rwenzori Range (East Africa) during the 20th century, which are most striking on the mountains Baker and Speke, and (ii) the information on an abrupt climate change to drier conditions in East Africa at the end of the 19th century, the following hypothesis is derived: owing to a drier atmosphere than in a previous period, both accumulation (possibly supported by increasing air temperatures) and convective cloud activity have decreased. Consequently, increased incoming shortwave radiation, especially during the morning hours, induced a differentially increased ablation that could not be compensated by mass advection on the mountains Baker and Speke. The results obtained from a combined radiation–terrain model, run for one more humid and one drier climatic scenario, confirm the hypothesis by quantifying the correlation between increased incoming shortwave radiation and glacier surface area loss. In the context of modern climate fluctuations, the results are a further indicator for a drastic climatic dislocation in East Africa at the end of the 19th century, leaving a humid regime behind and leading to a relatively dry regime, which is forcing the recession of glaciers not only by less accumulation but also by less protection against shortwave radiation through clouds. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

In the low latitudes there is an absence of major thermal seasonality, yet there are three different climate regimes related to global circulation patterns and their seasonal oscillation: the humid inner tropics, the dry subtropics and, intermediate between these two, the outer tropics. For the respective glacier regimes the vertical profiles of specific mass balance (VBPs) are modeled considering vertical gradients of accumulation, air temperature and albedo, the duration of the ablation period and a factor for the ratio between melting and sublimation. The model is first calibrated with data from Hintereisferner, Austrian Alps, and is then applied to tropical conditions. The simulated VBP matches well the measured profiles from Irian jaya and Mount Kenya. Due to lack of field evidence, the subtropical VBP cannot be verified directly. However, application of the respective model versions separately to the humid and dry seasons of the outer-tropical Glaciar Uruashraju, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, provides reasonable results. Glaciers in the humid inner tropics are considered to be most sensitive to variations in air temperature, while dry subtropical glaciers are most sensitive to changes in air humidity. The two seasons of the outer tropics have to be viewed from these different perspectives.

The tropical climate is characterized by a homogeneous atmosphere without frontal activity, a lack of thermal seasonality, and by one to two differently pronounced precipitation seasons. Consequently, tropical climate has a characteristic impact on tropical glaciers, with glacier–climate interactions different from those of the mid- and high-latitudes. The glaciers of tropical South America, Africa and New Guinea had a general maximum extent during the Little Ice Age (LIA) and have receded since the second half of the 19th century. Since then the fluctuations have been differently pronounced in different regions, but their general behaviour has been largely synchronous. The retreat from the LIA extent slowed on many glaciers at the beginning of the 20th century, some of them even readvanced almost to the LIA extent. The 1930s and 1940s brought a marked loss of ice masses and were followed by a moderate retreat. Around 1970 the recession generally slowed. Some glaciers even advanced. The last decade was again characterized by a pronounced glacier recession on all tropical mountains which are under observation. The modern fluctuations of tropical glaciers are also quite synchronous to those of the glaciers in the mid-latitudes. A reduction in air humidity with all the consequent changes in energy and mass balance is suggested to be a major reason for the general recession of tropical glaciers since the end of LIA. The rise in air temperature explains only part of the glacier recession. The accelerated recession since the 1980s is most probably caused by increased air temperature and increased air humidity. Nevertheless, the knowledge of tropical glaciers is still scarce compared to those of the mid and high latitudes. This contribution reviews present knowledge of the fluctuations of tropical glaciers.