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It is increasingly common for therapies in oncology to be given in combination. In some cases, patients can benefit from the interaction between two drugs, although often at the risk of higher toxicity. A large number of designs to conduct phase I trials in this setting are available, where the objective is to select the maximum tolerated dose combination (MTC). Recently, a number of model-free (also called model-assisted) designs have provoked interest, providing several practical advantages over the more conventional approaches of rule-based or model-based designs. In this paper, we demonstrate a novel calibration procedure for model-free designs to determine their most desirable parameters. Under the calibration procedure, we compare the behaviour of model-free designs to a model-based approach in a comprehensive simulation study, covering a number of clinically plausible scenarios. It is found that model-free designs are competitive with the model-based design in terms of the proportion of correct selections of the MTC. However, there are a number of scenarios in which model-free designs offer a safer alternative. This is also illustrated in the application of the designs to a case study using data from a phase I oncology trial., Comment: 29 pages, 6 Figures, 2 Tables

We describe a new method for reducing the shape noise in weak lensing measurements by an order of magnitude. Our method relies on spectroscopic measurements of disk galaxy rotation and makes use of the Tully-Fisher relation in order to control for the intrinsic orientations of galaxy disks. For this new proposed method, so-called Kinematic Lensing (KL), the shape noise ceases to be an important source of statistical error. We use the CosmoLike software package to simulate likelihood analyses for two Kinematic Lensing survey concepts (roughly similar in scale to Dark Energy Survey Task Force Stage III and Stage IV missions) and compare their constraining power to a cosmic shear survey from the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). Our forecasts in seven-dimensional cosmological parameter space include statistical uncertainties resulting from shape noise, cosmic variance, halo sample variance, and higher-order moments of the density field. We marginalize over systematic uncertainties arising from photometric redshift errors and shear calibration biases considering both optimistic and conservative assumptions about LSST systematic errors. We find that even the KL-Stage III is highly competitive with the optimistic LSST scenario, while evading the most important sources of theoretical and observational systematic error inherent in traditional weak lensing techniques. Furthermore, the KL technique enables a narrow-bin cosmic shear tomography approach to tightly constrain time-dependent signatures in the dark energy phenomenon., Comment: Expanded derivation, numerical results unchanged

We use measurements of the stellar mass function, galaxy clustering, and galaxy-galaxy lensing within the COSMOS survey to constrain the stellar-to-halo mass relation (SHMR) of star forming and quiescent galaxies over the redshift range z=[0.2,1.0]. For massive galaxies, M*>~10^10.6 Msol, our results indicate that star-forming galaxies grow proportionately as fast as their dark matter halos while quiescent galaxies are outpaced by dark matter growth. At lower masses, there is minimal difference in the SHMRs, implying that the majority low-mass quiescent galaxies have only recently been quenched of their star formation. Our analysis also affords a breakdown of all COSMOS galaxies into the relative numbers of central and satellite galaxies for both populations. At z=1, satellite galaxies dominate the red sequence below the knee in the stellar mass function. But the number of quiescent satellites exhibits minimal redshift evolution; all evolution in the red sequence is due to low-mass central galaxies being quenched of their star formation. At M*~10^10 Msol, the fraction of central galaxies on the red sequence increases by a factor of ten over our redshift baseline, while the fraction of quenched satellite galaxies at that mass is constant with redshift. We define a "migration rate" to the red sequence as the time derivative of the passive galaxy abundances. We find that the migration rate of central galaxies to the red sequence increases by nearly an order of magnitude from z=1 to z=0. These results imply that the efficiency of quenching star formation for centrals is increasing with cosmic time, while the mechanisms that quench the star formation of satellite galaxies in groups and clusters is losing efficiency., Comment: 20 pages, submitted to ApJ, current draft includes referee's comments

While the star formation rates and morphologies of galaxies have long been known to correlate with their local environment, the process by which these correlations are generated is not well understood. Galaxy groups are thought to play an important role in shaping the physical properties of galaxies before entering massive clusters at low redshift, and transformations of satellite galaxies likely dominate the buildup of local environmental correlations. To illuminate the physical processes that shape galaxy evolution in dense environments, we study a sample of 116 X-ray selected galaxy groups at z=0.2-1 with halo masses of 10^13-10^14 M_sun and centroids determined with weak lensing. We analyze morphologies based on HST imaging and colors determined from 31 photometric bands for a stellar mass-limited population of 923 satellite galaxies and a comparison sample of 16644 field galaxies. Controlling for variations in stellar mass across environments, we find significant trends in the colors and morphologies of satellite galaxies with group-centric distance and across cosmic time. Specifically at low stellar mass (log(M_stellar/M_sun) = 9.8-10.3), the fraction of disk-dominated star-forming galaxies declines from >50% among field galaxies to <20% among satellites near the centers of groups. This decline is accompanied by a rise in quenched galaxies with intermediate bulge+disk morphologies, and only a weak increase in red bulge-dominated systems. These results show that both color and morphology are influenced by a galaxy's location within a group halo. We suggest that strangulation and disk fading alone are insufficient to explain the observed morphological dependence on environment, and that galaxy mergers or close tidal encounters must play a role in building up the population of quenched galaxies with bulges seen in dense environments at low redshift., Comment: Accepted to ApJ. Added a summary figure, references, and minor clarifications. Catalogs and pretty plots available at http://astro.berkeley.edu/~mgeorge/cosmos/ 11 pages, 7 figures

Locating the centers of dark matter halos is critical for understanding the mass profiles of halos as well as the formation and evolution of the massive galaxies that they host. The task is observationally challenging because we cannot observe halos directly, and tracers such as bright galaxies or X-ray emission from hot plasma are imperfect. In this paper we quantify the consequences of miscentering on the weak lensing signal from a sample of 129 X-ray selected galaxy groups in the COSMOS field with redshifts 0

Using observations in the COSMOS field, we report an intriguing correlation between the star formation activity of massive (~10^{11.4}\msol) central galaxies, their stellar masses, and the large-scale (~10 Mpc) environments of their group-mass (~10^{13.6}\msol) dark matter halos. Probing the redshift range z=[0.2,1.0], our measurements come from two independent sources: an X-ray detected group catalog and constraints on the stellar-to-halo mass relation derived from a combination of clustering and weak lensing statistics. At z=1, we find that the stellar mass in star-forming centrals is a factor of two less than in passive centrals at the same halo mass. This implies that the presence or lack of star formation in group-scale centrals cannot be a stochastic process. By z=0, the offset reverses, probably as a result of the different growth rates of these objects. A similar but weaker trend is observed when dividing the sample by morphology rather than star formation. Remarkably, we find that star-forming centrals at z~1 live in groups that are significantly more clustered on 10 Mpc scales than similar mass groups hosting passive centrals. We discuss this signal in the context of halo assembly and recent simulations, suggesting that star-forming centrals prefer halos with higher angular momentum and/or formation histories with more recent growth; such halos are known to evolve in denser large-scale environments. If confirmed, this would be evidence of an early established link between the assembly history of halos on large scales and the future properties of the galaxies that form inside them., Comment: resubmitted to ApJ Letters with referee's comments incorporated

Weak lensing is commonly measured using shear through galaxy ellipticities, or using the effect of magnification bias on galaxy number densities. Here, we report on the first detection of weak lensing magnification with a new, independent technique using the distribution of galaxy sizes and magnitudes. These data come for free in galaxy surveys designed for measuring shear. We present the magnification estimator and apply it to an X-ray selected sample of galaxy groups in the COSMOS HST survey. The measurement of the projected surface density \Sigma(r) is consistent with the shear measurements within the uncertainties, and has roughly 40% of the signal-to-noise of the latter. We discuss systematic issues and challenges to realizing the potential of this new probe of weak lensing., Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures; v2: references added; version accepted for publication in ApJ Letters

We report on the detection of gravitational lensing magnification by a population of galaxy groups, at a significance level of 4.9 sigma. Using X-ray selected groups in the COSMOS 1.64 deg^2 field, and high-redshift Lyman break galaxies as sources, we measure a lensing-induced angular cross-correlation between the samples. After satisfying consistency checks that demonstrate we have indeed detected a magnification signal, and are not suffering from contamination by physical overlap of samples, we proceed to implement an optimally weighted cross-correlation function to further boost the signal to noise of the measurement. Interpreting this optimally weighted measurement allows us to study properties of the lensing groups. We model the full distribution of group masses using a composite-halo approach, considering both the singular isothermal sphere and Navarro-Frenk-White profiles, and find our best fit values to be consistent with those recovered using the weak-lensing shear technique. We argue that future weak-lensing studies will need to incorporate magnification along with shear, both to reduce residual systematics and to make full use of all available source information, in an effort to maximize scientific yield of the observations., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, Accepted by ApJ

Gravitational lensing can provide pure geometric tests of the structure of space-time, for instance by determining empirically the angular diameter distance-redshift relation. This geometric test has been demonstrated several times using massive clusters which produce a large lensing signal. In this case, matter at a single redshift dominates the lensing signal, so the analysis is straightforward. It is less clear how weaker signals from multiple sources at different redshifts can be stacked to demonstrate the geometric dependence. We introduce a simple measure of relative shear which for flat cosmologies separates the effect of lens and source positions into multiplicative terms, allowing signals from many different source-lens pairs to be combined. Applying this technique to a sample of groups and low-mass clusters in the COSMOS survey, we detect a clear variation of shear with distance behind the lens. This represents the first detection of the geometric effect using weak lensing by multiple, low-mass systems. The variation of distance with redshift is measured with sufficient precision to constrain the equation of state of the universe under the assumption of flatness, equivalent to a detection of a dark energy component Omega_X at greater than 99% confidence for an equation-of-state parameter -2.5 < w < -0.1. For the case w = -1, we find a value for the cosmological constant density parameter Omega_Lambda = 0.85+0.044-0.19 (68% C.L.), and detect cosmic acceleration (q_0 < 0) at the 98% C.L.. We consider the systematic uncertainties associated with this technique and discuss the prospects for applying it in forthcoming weak-lensing surveys., Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures; submitted to ApJ

Understanding the mechanisms that lead dense environments to host galaxies with redder colors, more spheroidal morphologies, and lower star formation rates than field populations remains an important problem. As most candidate processes ultimately depend on host halo mass, accurate characterizations of the local environment, ideally tied to halo mass estimates and spanning a range in halo mass and redshift are needed. In this work, we present and test a rigorous, probabalistic method for assigning galaxies to groups based on precise photometric redshifts and X-ray selected groups drawn from the COSMOS field. The groups have masses in the range 10^13 < M_200c/M_sun < 10^14 and span redshifts 0

Measurements of the total amount of stars locked up in galaxies as a function of host halo mass contain key clues about the efficiency of processes that regulate star formation. We derive the total stellar mass fraction f_star as a function of halo mass M500c from z=0.2 to z=1 using two complementary methods. First, we derive f_star using a statistical Halo Occupation Distribution model jointly constrained by data from lensing, clustering, and the stellar mass function. This method enables us to probe f_star over a much wider halo mass range than with group or cluster catalogs. Second, we derive f_star at group scales using a COSMOS X-ray group catalog and we show that the two methods agree to within 30%. We quantify the systematic uncertainty on f_star using abundance matching methods and we show that the statistical uncertainty on f_star (~10%) is dwarfed by systematic uncertainties associated with stellar mass measurements (~45% excluding IMF uncertainties). Assuming a Chabrier IMF, we find 0.012

Using data from the COSMOS survey, we perform the first joint analysis of galaxy-galaxy weak lensing, galaxy spatial clustering, and galaxy number densities. Carefully accounting for sample variance and for scatter between stellar and halo mass, we model all three observables simultaneously using a novel and self-consistent theoretical framework. Our results provide strong constraints on the shape and redshift evolution of the stellar-to-halo mass relation (SHMR) from z=0.2 to z=1. At low stellar mass, we find that halo mass scales as Mh M*^0.46 and that this scaling does not evolve significantly with redshift to z=1. We show that the dark-to-stellar ratio, Mh/M*, varies from low to high masses, reaching a minimum of Mh/M*~27 at M*=4.5x10^10 Msun and Mh=1.2x10^12 Msun. This minimum is important for models of galaxy formation because it marks the mass at which the accumulated stellar growth of the central galaxy has been the most efficient. We describe the SHMR at this minimum in terms of the "pivot stellar mass", M*piv, the "pivot halo mass", Mhpiv, and the "pivot ratio", (Mh/M*)piv. Thanks to a homogeneous analysis of a single data set, we report the first detection of mass downsizing trends for both Mhpiv and M*piv. The pivot stellar mass decreases from M*piv=5.75+-0.13x10^10 Msun at z=0.88 to M*piv=3.55+-0.17x10^10 Msun at z=0.37. Intriguingly, however, the corresponding evolution of Mhpiv leaves the pivot ratio constant with redshift at (Mh/M*)piv~27. We use simple arguments to show how this result raises the possibility that star formation quenching may ultimately depend on Mh/M* and not simply Mh, as is commonly assumed. We show that simple models with such a dependence naturally lead to downsizing in the sites of star formation. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results in the context of popular quenching models, including disk instabilities and AGN feedback., Comment: 31 pages, 18 figures, 5 tables. Submitted to ApJ. Comments welcome

Studies of the diffuse X-ray emitting gas in galaxy clusters have provided powerful constraints on cosmological parameters and insights into plasma astrophysics. However, measurements of the faint cluster outskirts have become possible only recently. Using data from the Suzaku X-ray telescope, we determined an accurate, spatially resolved census of the gas, metals, and dark matter out to the edge of the Perseus Cluster. Contrary to previous results, our measurements of the cluster baryon fraction are consistent with the expected universal value at half of the virial radius. The apparent baryon fraction exceeds the cosmic mean at larger radii, suggesting a clumpy distribution of the gas, which is important for understanding the ongoing growth of clusters from the surrounding cosmic web., Comment: Accepted for publication

We present measurements of carbon monoxide emission in the central region of the nearby starburst NGC 6000 taken with the Submillimeter Array. The J=2-1 transition of 12CO, 13CO, and C18O were imaged at a resolution of ~3''x2'' (450x300 pc). We accurately determine the dynamical center of NGC 6000 at R.A(J2000.0)=15h49m49.5s and dec(J2000.0)=-29d23'13'' which agrees with the peak of molecular emission position. The observed CO dynamics could be explained in the context of the presence of a bar potential affecting the molecular material, likely responsible for the strong nuclear concentration where more than 85% of the gas is located. We detect a kinematically detached component of dense molecular gas at relatively high velocity which might be fueling the star formation. A total nuclear dynamical mass of 7x10^9 Msun is derived and a total mass of gas of 4.6x10^8 Msun, yielding a Mgas/Mdyn~6%, similar to other previously studied barred galaxies with central starbursts. We determined the mass of molecular gas with the optically thin isotopologue C18O and we estimate a CO-to-H2 conversion factor X(CO)=0.4x10^20 cm-2/(K km s-1) in agreement with that determined in other starburst galaxies., Comment: 31 pages, 7 figures. Accepted for publication in Astronomical Journal.

We present the results of an archival search for Trans-neptunian objects (TNOs) in an ecliptic field observed with Subaru in 2002. The depth of the search allowed us to find 20 new TNOs with magnitudes between R=24 and 27. We fit a double power law model to the data; the most likely values for the bright and faint power law exponents are alpha_1=0.73_{-0.09}^{+0.08} and alpha_2=0.20_{-0.14}^{+0.12}; the differential number density at R=23 is sigma_{23}=1.46_{-0.12}^{+0.14} and the break magnitude is R_{eq}=25.0_{-0.6}^{+0.8}. This is the most precise measurement of the break in the TNO luminosity function to date. The break in the size distribution corresponds to a diameter of D = 90+-30 km assuming a 4% albedo., Comment: Added references. 5 pages, 4 figures. apj submitted

We measure X-ray emission from the outskirts of the cluster of galaxies PKS 0745-191 with Suzaku, determining radial profiles of density, temperature, entropy, gas fraction, and mass. These measurements extend beyond the virial radius for the first time, providing new information about cluster assembly and the diffuse intracluster medium out to ~1.5 r_200, (r_200 ~ 1.7 Mpc ~ 15'). The temperature is found to decrease by roughly 70 per cent from 0.3-1 r_200. We also see a flattening of the entropy profile near the virial radius and consider the implications this has for the assumption of hydrostatic equilibrium when deriving mass estimates. We place these observations in the context of simulations and analytical models to develop a better understanding of non-gravitational physics in the outskirts of the cluster., Comment: 10 pages, 11 figures, accepted to MNRAS; expanded discussion of analysis and uncertainties, results qualitatively unchanged

We measure the correlation between sky coordinates of the Swift BAT catalogue of active galactic nuclei with the arrival directions of the highest energy cosmic rays detected by the Auger Observatory. The statistically complete, hard X-ray catalogue helps to distinguish between AGN and other source candidates that follow the distribution of local large-scale structure. The positions of the full catalogue are marginally uncorrelated with the cosmic ray arrival directions, but when weighted by their hard X-ray flux, AGN within 100 Mpc are correlated at a significance level of 98 per cent. This correlation sharply decreases for sources beyond ~100 Mpc, suggestive of a GZK suppression. We discuss the implications for determining the mechanism that accelerates particles to these extreme energies in excess of 10^19 eV., Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We present the results of a systematic search for gravitationally-lensed continuum Lyman break `drop-outs' beyond a redshift 7 conducted via very deep imaging through six foreground clusters undertaken with the Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescopes. The survey has yielded 10 z-band and 2 J-band drop-out candidates to photometric limits of J_110~=26.2 AB (5sigma). Taking into account the magnifications afforded by our clusters (1-4 magnitudes), we probe the presence of z>7 sources to unlensed limits of J_{110}~=30 AB, fainter than those charted in the Hubble Ultradeep Field. To verify the fidelity of our candidates we conduct a number of tests for instrumental effects which would lead to spurious detections, and carefully evaluate the likelihood of foreground contamination by considering photometric uncertainties in the drop-out signature, the upper limits from stacked IRAC data and the statistics of multiply-imaged sources. Overall, we conclude that we can expect about half of our sample of z-band drop-outs are likely to be at high redshift. An ambitious infrared spectroscopic campaign undertaken with the NIRSPEC spectrograph at the WM Keck Observatory for seven of the most promising candidates failed to detect any Lyman-alpha emission highlighting the challenge of making further progress in this field. While the volume density of high redshift sources will likely remain uncertain until more powerful facilities are available, our data provides the first potentially interesting constraints on the UV luminosity function at z~=7.5 at intrinsically faint limits. We discuss the implications of our results in the context of the hypothesis that the bulk of the reionizing photons in the era 7

Motivated by the recognition that variation in the optical transmission of the atmosphere is probably the main limitation to the precision of ground-based CCD measurements of celestial fluxes, we review the physical processes that attenuate the passage of light through the Earth's atmosphere. The next generation of astronomical surveys, such as PanSTARRS and LSST, will greatly benefit from dedicated apparatus to obtain atmospheric transmission data that can be associated with each survey image. We review and compare various approaches to this measurement problem, including photometry, spectroscopy, and LIDAR. In conjunction with careful measurements of instrumental throughput, atmospheric transmission measurements should allow next-generation imaging surveys to produce photometry of unprecedented precision. Our primary concerns are the real-time determination of aerosol scattering and absorption by water along the line of sight, both of which can vary over the course of a night's observations., Comment: 41 pages, 14 figures. Accepted PASP