Search

A new mega-port may force western Europeans to think differently about Georgia IT IS OFF-SEASON in Anaklia. The snack stands on the Black Sea promenade are shut, the hotels are [...]

2013[sup.a] 2014[sup.a] 2015[sup.a] 2016[sup.a] 2017[sup.b] 2018[sup.c] 2019[sup.c] GDP Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 16.1 16.5 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.2 17.1 Nominal GDP (Lari bn) 27 29 32 34 37 40 44 [...]

Inflation picked up to an average of 6% year on year in January-November 2017, from 2.1% in full-year 2016, driven by a recovery in global energy prices and an increase [...]

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Exchange rate Lari:US$ (av) 2015 1.94 2.09 2.19 2.26 2.32 2.26 2.26 2.32 2.40 2.39 2.40 2.40 2016 [...]

2015 2016 2017 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr General government finance (Lari m) Revenue & grants 2,381.8 2,210.1 2,295.8 [...]

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Economic growth (%) US GDP 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.8 1.8 1.9 OECD GDP 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.3 1.9 1.9 World GDP 2.9 2.7 2.8 [...]

Given the openness and small size of the Georgian economy, the lari exchange rate is driven by movements in the current account, including seasonal factors (such as tourism), and demand [...]

Forecast summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2015[sup.a] 2016[sup.b] 2017[sup.c] 2018[sup.c] Real GDP growth 2.8 2.7 3.5 2.9 Consumer price inflation (av) 4.0 2.0 3.6 4.9 Lending rate (%) 12.5 12.7 [...]

Real GDP grew by 2.8% in 2015, the slowest rate of growth since 2009, caused primarily by a contraction in Russian real wages, which depressed the value of remittances. Although [...]

Like the currencies of many countries in the region, the lari depreciated significantly in 2015. The recession in Russia and the devaluation of the rouble contributed to a reduction in [...]

2012[sup.a] 2013[sup.a] 2014[sup.a] 2015[sup.a] 2016[sup.b] GDP at market prices (Lari bn) 26.2 26.8 29.2 31.7 31.7 GDP (US$ bn) 15.8 16.1 16.5 14.0 13.5 Real GDP growth (%) 6.4 3.4 [...]

2014 2015 2016 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr General government finance (Lari m) Revenue & grants 2,287.5 2,080.0 2,136.9 [...]

Like the currencies of many countries in the region, the lari depreciated significantly in 2015. This has prompted the central bank to carry out several small foreign-exchange interventions since late [...]

Inflation accelerated to 4% on average in 2015, as weak global commodity and food prices were not able to compensate for the falling currency pushing up import prices. Despite weak [...]

Forecast summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2014[sup.a] 2015[sup.b] 2016[sup.c] 2017[sup.c] Real GDP growth 4.8 2.6 2.9 3.4 Consumer price inflation (av) 3.1 4.0[sup.a] 5.4 5.0 Lending rate (%) 11.9 12.4 [...]

We estimate that the current-account deficit was 11.8% of GDP in 2015, almost unchanged from 2014. The depreciation of the lari and weak domestic demand will continue to depress imports [...]

Monetary policy is officially focused on inflation-targeting, implying a freely floating exchange rate. Georgia has experienced sharp falls in its currency recently, which have put the central bank under pressure [...]

International assumptions summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2014 2015 2016 2017 GDP growth World 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.7 Russia 0.5 -3.7 -1.3 1.3 Turkey 2.9 3.9 3.5 3.8 Exchange rates [...]

Government spending plans are assessed on the basis of general government spending and revenue plus the acquisition and sale of non-financial assets. The deficit in 2014 stood at 2.1% of [...]

2014 2015 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr General government finance (Lari m) Revenue & grants 2,070.2 2,071.2 2,072.2 2,073.2 [...]

2011[sup.a] 2012[sup.a] 2013[sup.a] 2014[sup.a] 2015[sup.b] GDP at market prices (Lari bn) 24.3 26.2 26.8 29.2 31.4 GDP (US$ bn) 14.4 15.8 16.1 16.5 13.8 Real GDP growth (%) 7.2 6.2 [...]

Outlook for 2016-17 Political instability will be high in the run-up to the parliamentary election. The political environment will remain polarised. Administrative resources, violence, fraud and judicial pressure are likely [...]

Event The fall in the global price of oil has showed no sign of easing, and the EIU is reducing its forecast for the average price of dated Brent blend [...]

Forecast summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2013[sup.a] 2014[sup.b] 2015[sup.c] 2016[sup.c] Real GDP growth 3.2[sup.b] 5.1 3.0 3.6 Consumer price inflation (av) -0.5 3.3 5.5 4.8 Lending rate (%) 13.6 12.1 [...]

2012 2013 2014 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr Government finance (Lari m) Revenue & grants 2,036.6 1,753.1 1,707.4 1,873.2 [...]

Event Sharp falls in the lari in November and early December pushed the currency to Lari1.9:US$1 on December 8th. Analysis The slide in the currency's value, which had been stable [...]

Deflationary trends continued in 2013, with annual average consumer prices falling by 0.5%. Inflation picked up in 2014 as household incomes returned to growth. Consumer prices rose by 2.8% year [...]

The current-account deficit narrowed to 6.2% of GDP in 2013, from 12.1% in 2012, owing to strong export performance, with sales of goods and services growing by over 20% year [...]

The lari came under serious pressure in November and early December, falling by over 10% against the US dollar. On December 5th the lari stood at over Lari2:US$1, down by [...]

The economy grew by 3.2% in 2013, down from 6% in 2012. This was owing to a sharp contraction in public spending on goods and services in the first three [...]

International assumptions summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2013 2014 2015 2016 GDP growth World 3.0 3.1 3.7 3.8 Russia 1.3 0.6 0.0 1.5 Turkey 4.1 3.0 3.7 4.3 Exchange rates [...]

2010[sup.a] 2011[sup.a] 2012[sup.a] 2013[sup.a] 2014[sup.b] GDP at market prices (Lari bn) 20.7 24.3 26.2 26.8 29.0 GDP (US$ bn) 11.6 14.4 15.8 16.1 16.3 Real GDP growth (%) 6.2[sup.b] 7.0[sup.b] [...]

Outlook for 2015-16 Divisions are emerging within the Georgian Dream coalition, and between the government and president. These are likely to become more pronounced in 2015-16, which will undermine the [...]

Forecast summary -------------------------------------------------------------- 2012a 2013b 2014c 2015c Real GDP growth 6.1b 3.1 5.6 5.5 Consumer price inflation (av) -0.9 -0.5 5.6 5.8 Lending rate (%) 14.8 12.9 16.0 17.0 Government [...]

As in many emerging markets that have large current-account deficits, the lari fell significantly against the strengthening dollar in early 2014. Since the start of December 2013 the lari has [...]

Deflationary trends continued in 2013, with annual average consumer prices falling by 0.5%. Higher government spending in 2014, a recovery in overall domestic demand and a fall in the value [...]

The economy slowed steadily over the first three quarters of 2013, expanding by just 1.7% year on year in January-September, compared with 7.4% in the equivalent period of 2012. This [...]

Forecast summary --------------------------------------------------------------- 2011a 2012a 2013b 2014b Real GDP growth 7.2 6.1 4.5 6.7 Consumer price inflation (av) 8.5 -0.9 1.1 4.3 Lending rate (%) 22.2 22.1 20.6 20.3 Government [...]