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Abstract Ceratitis capitata, a major agricultural pest, is currently expanding its geographic distribution to northern, temperate areas of Europe. Its seasonal biology and invasion success depend on temperature, humidity and host availability. In coastal warmer Mediterranean regions and cooler temperature areas, bitter oranges and apples serve as overwintering hosts during the larval stage. We assessed the overwintering capacity of C. capitata populations obtained from different areas of the northern hemisphere by studying the survival and development rates of immature stages in both fruits under laboratory conditions. Eggs from each population were artificially inserted in the flesh of the two hosts and kept at 15, 20, or 25 °C until pupation and adult emergence. Climatic analysis of the area of the population origin showed combined effects of latitude, host and macroclimatic variables on immature survival and development rates. Egg to adult survival rates and developmental duration were longer in apples than in bitter oranges. For populations originated from southern-warmer areas, egg to adult developmental duration was prolonged and adult emergence reduced at 15 °C compared to those populations obtained from northern regions. Our findings reveal varying plastic responses of medfly populations to different overwintering hosts and temperatures highlighting the differential overwintering potential as larvae within fruits. This study contributes towards better understanding the medfly invasion dynamics in temperate areas of Northern Europe and other parts of the globe with similar climates.

The Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly), Ceratitis capitata, is considered one of the most destructive fruit pests worldwide. Female medflies prefer to lay eggs in ripening, ripe, or overripe fruits. In deciduous orchards of temperate regions, fruitlets (juvenile fruits) of early cultivars could represent the earliest spring resource with a potential host function for medflies. However, little is known about the medfly female’s ability to ovipositing and complete breeding in fruitlets. To clarify the possible role of fruitlets, the suitability of key-host fruitlets for the oviposition of medflies and the further development of immature stages were examined in laboratory conditions and an attempt was made to assess the degree of infection of fruitlets collected in the field. Additionally, the development of the overwintering medfly population and the putative use of fruitlets as a resource for early population growth were simulated using the PESTonFARM model optimized to reflect specific features of medfly biology and behavior. Our laboratory data demonstrate that nectarine and pear fruitlets can support the full development of medfly offspring. However, no medfly pupae were obtained from a sample of 14,000 fruitlets collected at the farm. The simulation showed that the sample number needed to detect with at least 95% certainty rare cases of medfly pupae or adults emerging from infected fruitlets is several tens of thousands, which is several times more than the actual number of fruitlets used in our study. Our research suggests that the fruitlets of some cultivated fruit species can potentially constitute a viable food resource for the development of the earliest generation of spring medflies, with implications for medfly Integrated Pest Management (IPM).