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Introduction The objective of this study was to estimate the lifetime risk of hospitalization associated with all major human papillomavirus (HPV)-related diseases in Italy. Moreover, a preliminary vaccination effect was also performed. Methods A retrospective, nonrandomized, observational study was developed based on patients hospitalized between 2006 and 2018 in Italy. All hospitalizations were identified through administrative archives, according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 CM). Information related to the hospital discharges of all accredited public and private hospitals, both for ordinary and day care regimes, was taken into account. We included hospitalizations related to resident patients presenting one of the ICD-9-CM codes as primary or secondary diagnosis: genital warts (GW); ‘cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)’ (067.32–067.33); ‘condyloma acuminatum’ (078.11); ‘anal cancers’ (AC) (154.2–154.8); oropharyngeal cancers (OC): ‘oropharyngeal cancer’(146.0–146.9) and ‘head, face and neck cancers’ (171.0); genital cancers (GC): ‘penis cancer’ (187.1–187.9) and ‘cervical cancer’ (180.0–180.9). Data were stratified by birth year and divided into two groups: (a) cohort born before 1996 (not vaccinable) and (b) cohort born after 1997 (vaccinable—first cohort that could be vaccinated at the beginning of immunization schedule in girls since 2008 in Italy). Disease-specific hospitalization risks for both groups were estimated by sex, year and age. Results Epidemiological data demonstrate that the peak hospitalization risk occurred at 24–26 years of age for GW (both male and female); 33–41 and 47–54 years for AC males and females, respectively; 53–59 and 52–58 years for OC males and females, respectively; and 54–60 and 39–46 years for GC males and females, respectively. Focusing on GW and GC, vaccinable females demonstrate a significant reduction in hospitalization risks (− 54% on average) compared to nonvaccinable females until 21 years of age (maximum follow-up available for girls born after 1997). Comparing the same birth cohort of males, no differences in hospitalization risk were found. Conclusions These results support the importance of primary prevention strategies in Italy and suggest that increased VCRs and time of observation (genital cancers for which vaccination is highly effective, have a latency of some decades) will provide useful information for decision-makers.

Biotechnology firms are often created on the premise of commercialising the results of research carried out by scientists with heterogeneous careers and research trajectories. Patents filed by company founders provide accessible information on the appropriation of knowledge through the assignment of intellectual property rights (IPR). In this study, we developed a new database of patents and publications by the founders of European, drug-originating biotech companies that reached IPO between 2013 and 2018. The founders' scientific human capital was analysed. We also developed a regression model to estimate whether the founders’ career trajectories, previous publications and patent characteristics explain the appropriation of knowledge by biotech start-ups. Our findings suggest that founders' scientific human capital and professional experience influence the way in which knowledge is captured for economic use. Compared to patents filed by industrial inventors, those filed by academics and mixed career scientists are more likely to be assigned to an inventor's own start-up company than owned by a scientist's employers. These findings lead to fundamental questions about biopharmaceutical innovation regarding issues such as whether risks and returns are appropriately shared between actors in the public and private sectors.

Background: The United Kingdom (UK) switched from using the 4-valent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine (Gardasil®) to the 9-valent vaccine (Gardasil 9®) in 2021. Objective: To estimate and compare the health and economic outcomes of 2 HPV vaccination programs in the UK targeting girls and boys aged 12-13 years from the perspective of the UK National Health Service. The 2 vaccination strategies were (1) universal vaccination 4-valent (UV4V), using the 4-valent HPV vaccine (4vHPV), and (2) universal vaccination 9-valent (UV9V), using the 9-valent HPV vaccine (9vHPV). Methods: A deterministic heterosexual compartmental disease transmission model was used to track health and economic outcomes over a 100-year time horizon. Outcomes were discounted at an annual rate of 3.5% and 1.5%. All costs were adjusted to 2020 British pounds (£). Health outcomes were measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the summary results were presented as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (£/QALY gained) when comparing UV4V with UV9V. Results: Using the same vaccine coverage for both programs, the total cumulative cases of HPV-related health outcomes tracked over the 100-year horizon indicated that the relative number of cases averted (UV9V vs UV4V) ranged from 4% (anal male cancers and deaths) to 56% (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN1]). Assuming that 9vHPV cost £15.18 more than 4vHPV (a cost differential based on discounted list prices), the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £8600/QALY gained when discounted at 3.5%, and £3300/QALY gained when discounted at 1.5%. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from the sensitivity analyses remained Discussion: Consistent with other published studies, the results from this study found that the 9vHPV vaccine prevented a substantial number of cases when compared with the 4vHPV vaccine and was highly cost-effective. Conclusions: These results demonstrate that replacing universal 4vHPV with 9vHPV can prevent a substantial additional number of HPV-related cases/deaths (in both women and men) and remain cost-effective over a range of 9vHPV price premiums.

Background Disparities in cross-regional coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) mortality remain poorly understood. The association between pre-epidemic health and epidemic mortality can inform a policy response to future outbreaks. Method We conducted an ecological study of the association between the cumulative deaths attributed to Covid-19 epidemic in the 20 Italian regions and nine determinants of population health derived from a systematic review of the literature. We used a multiple least square regression to predict the cross-regional variation in mortality observed from the onset of the epidemic to 23 September 2020. Results Four independent variables best explained the cross-regional differences in the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19: the force of infection, population density, number of elderly living in assisted facilities and the standard rate of diabetes. The semi-partial correlation coefficients suggest that the force of infection and the number of elderly residents in nursing homes were the dominant predictors of the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19. Statistical controls and validation confirmed the generalizability of the predictive model. Conclusions Our findings indicate that a significant reduction of social contacts in main metropolitan areas and the timely isolation of elderly and diabetic residents could significantly reduce the death toll of the next wave of Covid-19 infection in Italy.

The human papillomavirus (HPV) can cause a range of cancers as well as genital warts and recurrent respiratory papillomatosis in men and women. Most cases can be prevented by vaccination in adolescence. Many countries vaccinate girls and an increasing number, although still a minority, vaccinate both boys and girls. The case for vaccinating boys is based on arguments of public health, equity, ethics and cost-effectiveness. The selective vaccination of females does not protect males sufficiently and provides no protection at all for men who have sex with men. In the United Kingdom (UK), the government’s vaccination advisory committee (Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation [JCVI]) began to consider whether boys should be vaccinated as well as girls in 2013 and made clear in draft statements that it considered this not to be cost-effective. A campaign group, HPV Action, was established to advocate gender-neutral vaccination. This group became a coalition of over 50 organisations and used evidence-based arguments, political advocacy and media campaigning to make its case. One of its members initiated legal action against the government on the grounds of sex discrimination. In July 2018, the government agreed that boys in the UK should be vaccinated. The lessons for other campaigns in the men’s and public health fields include: be prepared for the long haul, focus on clear and specific goals, build alliances, align the objectives with existing policies, make a financial case for a change of policy, and use all legitimate means to exert pressure.

This paper examines earnings management in state-funded Italian healthcare trusts. Italy is unique in requiring trusts to have balanced budgets by law. Small negative and positive deviation...

COVID-19 spreads mainly among people who are in close contact. Policymakers mostly resorted to normative measures to limit close contacts and impose social distancing. Our study aimed to estimate the risk of exposure to COVID-19 by location and activity in crowded metropolitan areas. The risk of exposure to COVID-19 was defined as the product of crowding (people within a six feet distance) and exposure duration (fraction of 15 min). Our epidemiological investigation used aggregated and anonymized mobility data from Google Maps to estimate the visit duration. We collected visit duration data for 561 premises in the metropolitan area of Genoa, Italy from October 2020 to January 2021. The sample was then clustered into 14 everyday activities, from grocery shopping to the post office. Crowding data by activity were obtained from pre-existing building norms and new government measures to contain the pandemic. The study found significant variance in the risk of exposure to COVID-19 among activities and, for the same activity, among locations. The empirical determination of the risk of exposure to COVID-19 can inform national and local public health policies to contain the pandemic’s diffusion. Its simple numerical form can help policymakers effectively communicate difficult decisions affecting our daily lives. Most importantly, risk data by location can help us rethink our daily routine and make informed, responsible choices when we decide to go out.

Objective The main objective of this study was to evaluate the potential role of efficacy data and other information available at the time of price and reimbursement (P&R) decision-making process within the definition of oncology treatment costs in Italy. Methods The study included all P&R dossiers submitted to the Italian Medicines Agency between July 2015 and December 2017. It prospectively collected the data of the P&R process starting from dossier submission up to the Italian Health Service reimbursement decision. The cost of treatment per patient was estimated using both the list price (“gross cost”) and the confidential net price (“net cost”) of drug packages and applied to the median duration of treatment. A 2-sample stage Heckman decomposition model was used to evaluate the potential role of efficacy data and other information available at the time of P&R decision making on the gross and net cost. Results A total of 37 oncology drugs related to 58 therapeutic indications were analyzed. The multivariate model showed that the variation of progression-free survival is the only variable predictor statistically associated with treatment cost, but this effect was observed only when confidential net prices were used (P=.026). Conclusions Considering the perspective of a developed country having a public healthcare service with a central reimbursement negotiation is determined a relevant reduction in the treatment cost purchased by public payers. This is a useful approach to guarantee the affordability of innovative oncology drugs and to contain public expenditures on healthcare. Furthermore, the negotiation of confidential discounts and agreement clauses in managed entry agreements seemed to reward oncology drugs displaying an added therapeutic benefit.

The role of knowledge and technology transfer between academia and the industry has received increasing attention in the analysis of innovation. This article aims to explore the scientific literature concerning knowledge transport mechanisms and describe how the topic was organized by previous studies and terminologies applied. A systematic review was conducted in which the content of recent contributions best fitting these intensions was analysed. The characteristics of knowledge, individuals, organizations, and disciplines were found to be the main determinants in the adoption of transfer mechanisms. These were classified in terms of formalization, relational involvement, direction, and time. On the revealed multi-dimensionality of knowledge transfer and complementarity between transfer activities we framed a new taxonomy distinguishing between channels and processes. Future research may deepen these factors, such as the economic aspects driving the adoption of transfer mechanisms informing decisions on the funding of innovation.

Basic research creates new knowledge that fuels technological advances. However, budgetary concerns and escalating R&D prices are challenging organizations to show returns from investments in scientific research. Few attempts are made to analyse research that leads to pharmaceutical innovation. In particular, the financial contribution of public and private organizations to the riskiest stage of biomedical discovery has remained unclear and partially unexplored. This study is a first attempt to shed light on the financial support to basic research by public and private sectors using publications data. We conducted an exploratory analysis of funding acknowledgments on publications authored by the founding scientists of 91 ‘drug originator’ companies in United Kingdom. The nature and distribution of the support acknowledged to the research conducted before the company creation was analysed and the impact of publications and type of support were statistically tested. We found the majority of publications acknowledged public institutions, whereas, commercial organisations were likely to support those with privately affiliated authors. Based on these findings, we discussed the need to foster collaborative research and to set adequate incentives for shared risks and benefits from investments in knowledge creation.

We explore the relationship between foresight and managerial cognition and the contribution of foresight to the long‐term performance of organizations facing major sources of uncertainty. Our research setting is the automotive industry, a compelling research setting for illustrating and reflecting upon the role of foresight in strategic decision making, as the industry is currently experiencing major drivers of change and technological discontinuities. We carefully examined the most recent empirical and theoretical works in the field of foresight, by conducting a thorough literature review. We found that scholars and practitioners increasingly emphasize the ability of foresight to change the mental models of senior managers and the role of such ability in the long‐term adaptation to external changes. Overall, our study contributes to the development of a programmatic stream of research in the domain of foresight and future studies.

Acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSIs) have been defined by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2013 to include a subset of complicated skin and skin structure infections commonly treated with parenteral antibiotic therapy. Inpatient treatment of ABSSSIs involves a significant economic burden on the healthcare system. This study aimed to evaluate the economic impact on the National Health System associated with the management of non-severe ABSSSIs treated in hospitals with innovative long-acting dalbavancin compared to standard antibiotic therapy in Italy, Spain, and Austria.A budget impact analysis was developed to evaluate the direct costs associated with the management of ABSSSI from the national public health system perspective. The model considered the possibility of early discharge of patients directly from the Emergency Department (ED), after 1 night in the hospital, or after two or three nights in the hospital. A scenario with Standard of Care was compared with a dalbavancin scenario, where patients had the possibility of being discharged early. The epidemiological and cost parameters were extrapolated from national administrative databases and from a systematic literature review for each country. The analysis was conducted in a 3-year time horizon. A one-way deterministic sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the robustness of the results.The model estimated an average annual number of patients with non-severe ABSSSI in Italy, Spain, and Austria equal to 5396, 7884, and 1788, respectively. A total annual expenditure of about €9.9 million, €13.5 million, and €3.4 million was estimated for treating the full set of ABSSSI patients in Italy, Spain, and Austria, respectively. Dalbavancin reduced the in-hospital length of stay in each country. In the first year of its introduction, dalbavancin significantly reduced the total economic burden in Italy and Spain (- €352,252 and - €233,991, respectively), while it increased the total economic burden in Austria (€80,769, 0.7% of the total expenditure for these patients); in the third year of its introduction, dalbavancin reduced the total economic burden in each Country (- €1.1 million, - €810,650, and - €70,269, respectively).The introduction of dalbavancin in a new patient pathway to treat non-severe ABSSSI could generate a significant reduction in hospitalized patients and the overall patient length of stay in hospital.

Acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSIs) have been defined by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2013 to include a subset of complicated skin and skin structure infections commonly treated with parenteral antibiotic therapy. Inpatient treatment of ABSSSIs involves a significant economic burden on the healthcare system. This study aimed to evaluate the economic impact on the National Health System associated with the management of non-severe ABSSSIs treated in hospitals with innovative long-acting dalbavancin compared to standard antibiotic therapy in Italy, Spain, and Austria. A budget impact analysis was developed to evaluate the direct costs associated with the management of ABSSSI from the national public health system perspective. The model considered the possibility of early discharge of patients directly from the Emergency Department (ED), after 1 night in the hospital, or after two or three nights in the hospital. A scenario with Standard of Care was compared with a dalbavancin scenario, where patients had the possibility of being discharged early. The epidemiological and cost parameters were extrapolated from national administrative databases and from a systematic literature review for each country. The analysis was conducted in a 3-year time horizon. A one-way deterministic sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the robustness of the results. The model estimated an average annual number of patients with non-severe ABSSSI in Italy, Spain, and Austria equal to 5396, 7884, and 1788, respectively. A total annual expenditure of about €9.9 million, €13.5 million, and €3.4 million was estimated for treating the full set of ABSSSI patients in Italy, Spain, and Austria, respectively. Dalbavancin reduced the in-hospital length of stay in each country. In the first year of its introduction, dalbavancin significantly reduced the total economic burden in Italy and Spain (− €352,252 and − €233,991, respectively), while it increased the total economic burden in Austria (€80,769, 0.7% of the total expenditure for these patients); in the third year of its introduction, dalbavancin reduced the total economic burden in each Country (− €1.1 million, − €810,650, and − €70,269, respectively). The introduction of dalbavancin in a new patient pathway to treat non-severe ABSSSI could generate a significant reduction in hospitalized patients and the overall patient length of stay in hospital.

Background The protective (herd) effect of the selective vaccination of pubertal girls against human papillomavirus (HPV) implies a high probability that one of the two partners involved in intercourse is immunised, hence preventing the other from this sexually transmitted infection. The dynamic transmission models used to inform immunisation policy should include consideration of sexual behaviours and population mixing in order to demonstrate an ecological validity, whereby the scenarios modelled remain faithful to the real-life social and cultural context. The primary aim of this review is to test the ecological validity of the universal HPV vaccination cost-effectiveness modelling available in the published literature. Methods The research protocol related to this systematic review has been registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42016034145). Eight published economic evaluations were reviewed. Results None of the studies showed due consideration of the complexities of human sexual behaviour and the impact this may have on the transmission of HPV. Discussion Our findings indicate that all the included models might be affected by a different degree of ecological bias, which implies an inability to reflect the natural demographic and behavioural trends in their outcomes and, consequently, to accurately inform public healthcare policy. In particular, ecological bias have the effect to over-estimate the preference-based outcomes of selective immunisation. A relatively small (15–20%) over-estimation of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained with selective immunisation programmes could induce a significant error in the estimate of cost-effectiveness of universal immunisation, by inflating its incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) beyond the acceptability threshold. The results modelled here demonstrate the limitations of the cost-effectiveness studies for HPV vaccination, and highlight the concern that public healthcare policy might have been built upon incomplete studies.

Economic evaluations have a widespread application in many areas of clinical research and play a key role in the clinical decision-making process. However, economic analyses have been sometimes used to produce new 'evidence' that is not adequately tested in the target population. This is the case of data arising from a systematic review of clinical trials evaluating the use of direct acting oral anticoagulants for the prevention of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. Taking into account this example, here we discuss the concerns raised by the improper interpretation of the results. Our conclusions are three-fold. Data from economic analyses should not be shifted to a clinical recommendation. Simulation models should not be used to generate new 'evidence' that is not supported by experimental data and is misleading. Clinical judgment is therefore pivotal to interpret results emerging from economic analyses.

The aim of this study was to develop a spending predictor model to evaluate the direct costs associated with the management of ABSSSIs from the National health-care provider's perspective of Italy, Romania, and Spain.\ud \ud METHODOLOGY:\ud A decision-analytic model was developed to evaluate the diagnostic and clinical pathways of hospitalized ABSSSI patients based on scientific guidelines and real-world data. A Standard of Care (SoC) scenario was compared with a dalbavancin scenario in which the patients could be discharged early. The epidemiological and cost parameters were extrapolated from national administrative databases (i.e., hospital information system). A probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and one-way sensitivity analysis (OWA) were performed.\ud \ud RESULTS:\ud Overall, the model estimated an average annual number of patients with ABSSSIs of approximately 50,000 in Italy, Spain, and Romania. On average, the introduction of dalbavancin reduced the length of stay by 3.3 days per ABSSSI patient. From an economic perspective, dalbavancin did not incur any additional cost from the National Healthcare perspective, and the results were consistent among the countries. The PSA and OWA demonstrated the robustness of these results.\ud \ud CONCLUSION:\ud This model represents a useful tool for policymakers by providing information regarding the economic and organizational consequences of an early discharge approach in ABSSSI management.

The objectives of this study were to estimate the economic burden of HPV in Italy, accounting for total direct medical costs associated with nine major HPV-related diseases, and to provide a measure of the burden attributable to HPV 6, 11, 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, 58 infections. A cost-of-illness incidence-based model was developed to estimate the incidences and costs of invasive cervical cancer, cervical dysplasia, cancer of the vulva, vagina, anus, penis, oropharyngeal, anogenital warts, and recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP) in the context of the Italian National Health System (NHS). We used data from hospital discharge records (HDRs) of an Italian region and conducted a systematic literature review to estimate the lifetime cost per case, the number of incident cases, the prevalence of HPV9 types. Costs of therapeutic options not included in the diagnosis-related group (DRG) tariffs were estimated through a scenario analysis. In 2018, the total annual direct costs were €542.7 million, with a range of €346.7–€782.0 million. These costs could increase considering innovative therapies for cancer treatment (range €16.2–€37.5 million). The fraction attributable to the HPV9 genotypes without innovative cancers treatment was €329.5 million, accounting for 61% of the total annual burden of HPV-related diseases in Italy. Of this amount, €135.9 million (41%) was related to men, accounting for 64% of the costs associated with non-cervical conditions. The infections by HPV9 strains and the economic burden of non-cervical HPV-related diseases in men were found to be the main drivers of direct costs.

INTRODUCTION: \ud \ud Intentional rounding (IR) is a structured process whereby nurses in hospitals carry out regular checks, usually hourly, with individual patients using a standardised protocol to address issues of positioning, pain, personal needs and placement of items. The widespread implementation of IR across the UK has been driven by the recommendations of the Francis Inquiry although empirical evidence of its effectiveness is poor. This paper presents a protocol of a multimethod study using a realist evaluation approach to investigate the impact and effectiveness of IR in hospital wards on the organisation, delivery and experience of care from the perspective of patients, their family members and staff.\ud \ud METHODS AND ANALYSIS: \ud \ud The study will be conducted in four phases. Phase 1: theory development using realist synthesis to generate hypotheses about what the mechanisms of IR may be, what particular groups may benefit most or least and what contextual factors might be important to its success or failure which will be tested in subsequent phases of the study. Phase 2: a national survey of all NHS acute trusts to explore how IR is implemented and supported across England. Phase 3: case studies to explore how IR is implemented 'on the ground', including individual interviews with patients, family members and staff, non-participant observation, retrieval of routinely collected patient outcomes and cost analysis. Phase 4: accumulative data analysis across the phases to scrutinise data for patterns of congruence and discordance and develop an overall evaluation of what aspects of IR work, for whom and in what circumstances.\ud \ud ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: \ud \ud The study has been approved by NHS South East Coast-Surrey Research Ethics Committee. Findings will be published in a wide range of outputs targeted at key audiences, including patient and carer organisations, nursing staff and healthcare managers.

Introduction:The objectives of this study were to estimate the economic burden of human papillomavirus (HPV) in Italy, accounting for total direct medical costs associated with nine major HPV-related diseases, and to provide a measure of the burden attributable to HPV 6, 11, 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, 58 infections.Methods:A cost-of-illness incidence-based model was developed to estimate the incidences and costs of invasive cervical cancer, cervical dysplasia, cancer of the vulva, vagina, anus, penis, oropharyngeal, anogenital warts, and recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP) in the context of the Italian National Health System (NHS). We used data from hospital discharge records (HDRs) of an Italian region and conducted a systematic literature review to estimate the lifetime cost per case, the number of incident cases, the prevalence of HPV9 types. Costs of therapeutic options not included in the diagnosis-related group (DRG) tariffs were estimated through a scenario analysis.Results:The total annual direct costs were EUR 540.7 million, with a range of EUR 338.3 – EUR 789.7 million. These costs could increase considering innovative therapies for cancers treatment (range EUR 16.2 – EUR 37.6 million). The fraction attributable to the HPV9 genotypes without innovative cancers treatment was EUR 329.2 million (range EUR 150.1 – EUR 576.7 million), accounting for sixty-one percent of the total annual burden of HPV-related diseases in Italy. Of this amount, EUR 136.7 million (forty-two percent) was related to men, accounting for sixty-four percent of the costs associated with non-cervical conditions.Conclusions:The infections by HPV9 strains and the economic burden of non-cervical HPV-related diseases in men were found to be the main drivers of direct costs. The fraction of the total direct lifetime costs attributable to infections by HPV9 strains and the economic burden of non-cervical HPV-related diseases in men were found to be the main drivers of direct costs.

Introduction:Dalbavancin is a new innovative long-acting antimicrobial treatment that allows clinicians to endorse an early discharge program for patients suffering from acute bacterial skin and skin structure Infections (ABSSSI). The aim of this study was to develop a spending predictor model for evaluating the direct costs associated with the management of ABSSSI from the National Health Service (NHS) perspective of Italy, Spain, and Romania. The main purpose is to compare the hospitalization and drug costs due to the treatment of ABSSSI patients treated with standard antibiotics therapy or innovative long-acting treatment dalbavancin.Methods:A decision-analytic model was performed to evaluate the diagnostic and clinical pathways of ABSSSI patients in the hospital, based on clinicians’ expert opinion. The standard of care scenario was compared with the dalbavancin scenario. The epidemiological and cost parameters were extrapolated from national administrative databases (hospital information system) and from a systematic literature review for each country. Only direct costs in the national payer's perspective were considered. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and one-way sensitivity analysis (OSA) were performed to check the robustness of the model assumptions.Results:Overall, the model estimated an average annual number of patients with ABSSSI equal to around 50,000 in Italy, Spain, and Romania. The introduction of dalbavancin reduced the length of stay of, on average, 3.3 days per ABSSSI patient. From the economic point of view, dalbavancin did not incur any additional cost from the NHS perspective with homogenous results between countries. The PSA and OSA demonstrated the robustness of the results.Conclusions:The preliminary results highlight that the introduction of dalbavancin could generate a significant reduction in term of length of stay with no incremental cost from the NHS perspective. This model could represent a good tool for policymakers to provide information on the early discharge approach in the ABSSSI management.

BACKGROUND:\ud Human papillomavirus (HPV) plays a role in the development of benign and malign neoplasms in both sexes. The Italian recommendations for HPV vaccines consider only females. The BEST II study (Bayesian modelling to assess the Effectiveness of a vaccination Strategy to prevent HPV-related diseases) evaluates 1) the cost-effectiveness of immunization strategies targeting universal vaccination compared with cervical cancer screening and female-only vaccination and 2) the economic impact of immunization on various HPV-induced diseases.\ud \ud OBJECTIVE:\ud The objective of this study was to evaluate whether female-only vaccination or universal vaccination is the most cost-effective intervention against HPV.\ud \ud METHODS:\ud We present a dynamic Bayesian Markov model to investigate transmission dynamics in cohorts of females and males in a follow-up period of 55 years. We assumed that quadrivalent vaccination (against HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11) is available for 12-year-old individuals. The model accounts for the progression of subjects across HPV-induced health states (cervical, vaginal, vulvar, anal, penile, and head/neck cancer as well as anogenital warts). The sexual mixing is modeled on the basis of age-, sex-, and sexual behavioral-specific matrices to obtain the dynamic force of infection.\ud \ud RESULTS:\ud In comparison to cervical cancer screening, universal vaccination results in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €1,500. When universal immunization is compared with female-only vaccination, it is cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €11,600. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows a relatively large amount of parameter uncertainty, which interestingly has, however, no substantial impact on the decision-making process. The intervention being assessed seems to be associated with an attractive cost-effectiveness profile.\ud \ud CONCLUSIONS:\ud Universal HPV vaccination is found to be a cost-effective choice when compared with either cervical cancer screening or female-only vaccination within the Italian context.

Background The primary objective of this study was to derive cost comparators for the fourteen Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classes of drugs at first level, based on age-sex related weightings. Our aim was to develop an accurate analysis method of prescribing patterns in general practice and to be able to explain individual variations in prescribing costs based on the age/sex distribution of the population and individual clinical needs.

Cost management practices have been under substantial criticism for their lack of efficiency and capacity for coping with a rapidly evolving environment. Cost management applications generally fit into three major categories: diagnostic, re-engineering, or integrated cost management systems. Which of these costing systems should be regarded as the current best practices in cost management?

With discontinuity in technology, it can be frustrating to gauge its influence on Research and Development structure. What managers need, therefore, is a framework to help them understand significant advances in technology – something that will enable them to anticipate new innovation paradigms. This article examines the way that an explosion of biotechnologies has forced managers to question the relevance of the former pharmaceutical R&D model. For companies like Procter & Gamble, being able to recognise big discontinuities in the innovation model – and being proactive about implementing change strategies – has helped them reshape their innovation models whilst staying competitive.

This paper argues the advantages of Real Options thinking and by means of examples, exhibits the types of decision-making calculations that are distinctive to Real Options. However, in the process of clarifying the application of Real Options analysis to real decision making, a strong dependency upon scenario thinking is established. The value to decision makers of Real Options depends crucially on the substance and use of the scenarios on which it rests. The distinctive contribution of this paper consists in substantiating this view. By forging a critical link between Real Options analysis and scenario thinking, this paper illustrates how the beneficial application of Real Options to decision making brings it down from the esoteric heights of mathematics, converts it into a technique readily accessible to managers and qualifies it for inclusion in the curriculum of management education. Two cases drawn from personal experience are used to illustrate the approach recommended by the authors.

[This corrects the article on p. e49699 in vol. 7.]. In Table 5, the Total costs attributable to men (e + f + g + h + i) for columns a, b, and c were incorrect.

A large number of economic evaluations have already confirmed the cost-effectiveness of different human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies. Standard analyses might not capture the full economic value of novel vaccination programs because the cost-effectiveness paradigm fails to take into account the value of active management. Management decisions can be seen as real options, a term used to refer to the application of option pricing theory to the valuation of investments in nonfinancial assets in which much of the value is attributable to flexibility and learning over time.The aim of this article was to discuss the potential advantages shown by using the payoff method in the valuation of the cost-effectiveness of competing HPV immunization programs.This was the first study, to the best of our knowledge, to use the payoff method to determine the real option values of 4 different HPV vaccination strategies targeting female subjects aged 12, 15, 18, and 25 years. The payoff method derives the real option value from the triangular payoff distribution of the project's net present value, which is treated as a triangular fuzzy number. To inform the real option model, cost-effectiveness data were derived from an empirically calibrated Bayesian model designed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a multicohort HPV vaccination strategy in the context of the current cervical cancer screening program in Italy. A net health benefit approach was used to calculate the expected fuzzy net present value for each of the 4 vaccination strategies evaluated.Costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained seemed to be related to the number of cohorts targeted: a single cohort of girls aged 12 years (€10,955 [95% CI, -1,021 to 28,212]) revealed the lowest cost among the 4 alternative strategies evaluated. The real option valuation challenged the cost-effectiveness dominance of a single cohort of 12-year-old girls. The simultaneous vaccination of 2 cohorts of girls aged 12 and 15 years yielded a real option value (€17,723) equivalent to that attributed to a single cohort of 12-year-old girls (€17,460).The payoff method showed distinctive advantages in the valuation of the cost-effectiveness of competing health care interventions, essentially determined by the replacement of the nonfuzzy numbers that are commonly used in cost-effectiveness analysis models, with fuzzy numbers as an input to inform the real option pricing method. The real option approach to value uncertainty makes policy making in health care an evolutionary process and creates a new "space" for decision-making choices.