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Massive flooding in the upper Mississippi and lower Missouri river basins last summer caused widespread human distress and provoked sober public questioning of the wisdom of the policies and progra...

The various threads of inquiry were drawn together again in 1968 by a collaborative investigation of natural hazards supported by the National Science Foundation. In examining the behavior and expressed perceptions of residents of a flood plain in the Tennessee Valley, RW Kates attempted to find out how people perceive the hazard, how they perceive the range of adjustments open to them, and what factors accounted for differences in their perceptions. Additional efforts were made to refine a model of bounded rationality, the most being that developed by Kates in connection with the collaborative research on natural hazards. The Chicago metropolitan area became the metropolitan area in the world to be completely mapped in terms of flood hazard. In the course of promoting and carrying out flood plain mapping through the Northeastern Illinois Metropolitan Planning Commission, further inquiries were made into the decision process.

Although loss of life from natural hazards has been declining, the property losses from those causes have been increasing. At the same time the volume of research on natural hazards and the books reviewing findings on the subject have also increased. Several major changes have occurred in the topics addressed. Emphasis has shifted from hazards to disasters. There has been increasing attention to vulnerability. Views of causation have changed. Four possible explanations are examined for the situation in which more is lost while more is known: (1) knowledge continues to be flawed by areas of ignorance; (2) knowledge is available but not used effectively; (3) knowledge is used effectively but takes a long time to have effect; and (4) knowledge is used effectively in some respects but is overwhelmed by increases in vulnerability and in population, wealth, and poverty.

In the roughly 70 yr since the concept of integrated water management in river basins replaced primarily single-purpose management, there has been increasing question by international science and policy agencies as to the full consequences of such strategies for both social and environmental systems and for fulfillment of the notions underlying sustainable development. The experience suggests there is continuing urgent need for expanding the range of management measures considered as part of the planning process; for deepening the quality of criteria to judge each measure for reconciling the various evaluation principles; and for making incisive, correct post-audits of what actually resulted from their applications. It also reminds us that realization of the full potential of truly integrated water management may be very long in coming. Problems of improved analysis and of necessary institutional reform are formidable.

The need for improved institutional arrangements has been recognized for many years; prior to Mar del Plata, and most recently at Dublin and Rio. Consensus seems to be em erging that a new global organization should be created from representatives of local, national, regional and international organizations embracing environmental, economic and political concerns. It would promote exchange of information and experience to define issues and methods deserving of attention, and would critically appraise previous actions in selected sectors and areas of water management. It should not duplicate existing organizations .

The socioeconomic investigations of possible impacts of the proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, have been unprecedented in several respects. They bear on the public decision that sooner or later will be made as to where and how to dispose permanently of the waste presently at military weapons installations and that continues to accumulate at nuclear power stations. No final decision has yet been made. There is no clear precedent from other countries. The organization of state and federal studies is unique. The state studies involve more disciplines than any previous efforts. They have been carried out in parallel to federal studies and have pioneered in defining some problems and appropriate research methods. A recent annotated bibliography provides interested scientists with a compact guide to the 178 published reports, as well as to relevant journal articles and related documents.

Editor's Note: This article is the first in a series of three articles based on apresentation to the Symposium on the International Decade for Natural DisasterReduction held 24 January 1994 in Nashville, Tennessee. The symposium washeld in conjunction with the 75th AMS Annual Meeting.