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Key Points: Question: Can development of an individualized treatment rule identify patients presenting to emergency departments/urgent care with suicidal ideation or suicide attempts who are likely to benefit from psychiatric hospitalization? Findings: A decision analytic model found that hospitalization was associated with reduced suicide attempt risk among patients who attempted suicide in the past day but not among others with suicidality. Accounting for heterogeneity, suicide attempt risk was found to increase with hospitalization in 24% of patients and decrease in 28%. Meaning: Results of this study suggest that implementing an individualized treatment rule could identify many additional patients who may benefit from or be harmed by hospitalization. Importance: Psychiatric hospitalization is the standard of care for patients presenting to an emergency department (ED) or urgent care (UC) with high suicide risk. However, the effect of hospitalization in reducing subsequent suicidal behaviors is poorly understood and likely heterogeneous. Objectives: To estimate the association of psychiatric hospitalization with subsequent suicidal behaviors using observational data and develop a preliminary predictive analytics individualized treatment rule accounting for heterogeneity in this association across patients. Design, Setting, and Participants: A machine learning analysis of retrospective data was conducted. All veterans presenting with suicidal ideation (SI) or suicide attempt (SA) from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2015, were included. Data were analyzed from September 1, 2022, to March 10, 2023. Subgroups were defined by primary psychiatric diagnosis (nonaffective psychosis, bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder, and other) and suicidality (SI only, SA in past 2-7 days, and SA in past day). Models were trained in 70.0% of the training samples and tested in the remaining 30.0%. Exposures: Psychiatric hospitalization vs nonhospitalization. Main Outcomes and Measures: Fatal and nonfatal SAs within 12 months of ED/UC visits were identified in administrative records and the National Death Index. Baseline covariates were drawn from electronic health records and geospatial databases. Results: Of 196 610 visits (90.3% men; median [IQR] age, 53 [41-59] years), 71.5% resulted in hospitalization. The 12-month SA risk was 11.9% with hospitalization and 12.0% with nonhospitalization (difference, −0.1%; 95% CI, −0.4% to 0.2%). In patients with SI only or SA in the past 2 to 7 days, most hospitalization was not associated with subsequent SAs. For patients with SA in the past day, hospitalization was associated with risk reductions ranging from −6.9% to −9.6% across diagnoses. Accounting for heterogeneity, hospitalization was associated with reduced risk of subsequent SAs in 28.1% of the patients and increased risk in 24.0%. An individualized treatment rule based on these associations may reduce SAs by 16.0% and hospitalizations by 13.0% compared with current rates. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that psychiatric hospitalization is associated with reduced average SA risk in the immediate aftermath of an SA but not after other recent SAs or SI only. Substantial heterogeneity exists in these associations across patients. An individualized treatment rule accounting for this heterogeneity could both reduce SAs and avert hospitalizations. This predictive analytics model develops a preliminary individualized treatment rule to estimate the association between psychiatric hospitalization and subsequent suicidal behaviors in patients at risk for suicide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Untreated mental disorders are important among low- and middle-income country (LMIC) university students in Latin America, where barriers to treatment are high. Scalable interventions are needed. This study compared transdiagnostic self-guided and guided internet-delivered cognitive behavioral therapy (i-CBT) with treatment as usual (TAU) for clinically significant anxiety and depression among undergraduates in Colombia and Mexico. Method: 1,319 anxious, as determined by the Generalized Anxiety Disorder–7 (GAD-7) = 10+ and/or depressed, as determined by the Patient Health Questionnaire–9 (PHQ-9) = 10+, undergraduates (mean [SD] age = 21.4 [3.2]); 78.7% female; 55.9% first-generation university student) from seven universities in Colombia and Mexico were randomized to culturally adapted versions of self-guided i-CBT (n = 439), guided i-CBT (n = 445), or treatment as usual (TAU; n = 435). All randomized participants were reassessed 3 months after randomization. The primary outcome was remission of both anxiety (GAD-7 = 0–4) and depression (PHQ-9 = 0–4). We hypothesized that remission would be higher with guided i-CBT than with the other interventions. Results: Intent-to-treat analysis found significantly higher adjusted (for university and loss to follow-up) remission rates (ARD) among participants randomized to guided i-CBT than either self-guided i-CBT (ARD = 13.1%, χ12 = 10.4, p =.001) or TAU (ARD = 11.2%, χ12 = 8.4, p =.004), but no significant difference between self-guided i-CBT and TAU (ARD = −1.9%, χ12 = 0.2, p =.63). Per-protocol sensitivity analyses and analyses of dimensional outcomes yielded similar results. Conclusions: Significant reductions in anxiety and depression among LMIC university students could be achieved with guided i-CBT, although further research is needed to determine which students would most likely benefit from this intervention. What is the public health significance of this article?: Anxiety and depression are significant public health problems in LMIC universities. A culturally adapted transdiagnostic-guided i-CBT could help alleviate these problems as a low-threshold intervention component of a stepped-care treatment delivery model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The transition from military service to civilian life is a high-risk period for suicide attempts (SAs). Although stressful life events (SLEs) faced by transitioning soldiers are thought to be implicated, systematic prospective evidence is lacking. Methods: Participants in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS) completed baseline self-report surveys while on active duty in 2011–2014. Two self-report follow-up Longitudinal Surveys (LS1: 2016–2018; LS2: 2018–2019) were subsequently administered to probability subsamples of these baseline respondents. As detailed in a previous report, a SA risk index based on survey, administrative, and geospatial data collected before separation/deactivation identified 15% of the LS respondents who had separated/deactivated as being high-risk for self-reported post-separation/deactivation SAs. The current report presents an investigation of the extent to which self-reported SLEs occurring in the 12 months before each LS survey might have mediated/modified the association between this SA risk index and post-separation/deactivation SAs. Results: The 15% of respondents identified as high-risk had a significantly elevated prevalence of some post-separation/deactivation SLEs. In addition, the associations of some SLEs with SAs were significantly stronger among predicted high-risk than lower-risk respondents. Demographic rate decomposition showed that 59.5% (s.e. = 10.2) of the overall association between the predicted high-risk index and subsequent SAs was linked to these SLEs. Conclusions: It might be possible to prevent a substantial proportion of post-separation/deactivation SAs by providing high-risk soldiers with targeted preventive interventions for exposure/vulnerability to commonly occurring SLEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A better understanding of the extent to which prior occurrences of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and major depressive episode (MDE) predict psychopathological reactions to subsequent traumas might be useful in targeting posttraumatic preventive interventions. Methods: Data come from 1306 patients presenting to 29 U.S. emergency departments (EDs) after a motor vehicle collision (MVC) in the advancing understanding of recovery after trauma study. Patients completed self‐reports in the ED and 2‐weeks, 8‐weeks, and 3‐months post‐MVC. Associations of pre‐MVC probable PTSD and probable MDE histories with subsequent 3‐months post‐MVC probable PTSD and probable MDE were examined along with mediation through intervening peritraumatic, 2‐, and 8‐week disorders. Results: 27.6% of patients had 3‐month post‐MVC probable PTSD and/or MDE. Pre‐MVC lifetime histories of these disorders were not only significant (relative risk = 2.6–7.4) but were dominant (63.1% population attributable risk proportion [PARP]) predictors of this 3‐month outcome, with 46.6% prevalence of the outcome among patients with pre‐MVC disorder histories versus 9.9% among those without such histories. The associations of pre‐MVC lifetime disorders with the 3‐month outcome were mediated largely by 2‐ and 8‐week probable PTSD and MDE (PARP decreasing to 22.8% with controls for these intervening disorders). Decomposition showed that pre‐MVC lifetime histories predicted both onset and persistence of these intervening disorders as well as the higher conditional prevalence of the 3‐month outcome in the presence of these intervening disorders. Conclusions: Assessments of pre‐MVC PTSD and MDE histories and follow‐ups at 2 and 8 weeks could help target early interventions for psychopathological reactions to MVCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Importance: The suicide rate of military servicemembers increases sharply after returning to civilian life. Identifying high-risk servicemembers before they leave service could help target preventive interventions., Objective: To develop a model based on administrative data for regular US Army soldiers that can predict suicides 1 to 120 months after leaving active service., Design, Setting, and Participants: In this prognostic study, a consolidated administrative database was created for all regular US Army soldiers who left service from 2010 through 2019. Machine learning models were trained to predict suicides over the next 1 to 120 months in a random 70% training sample. Validation was implemented in the remaining 30%. Data were analyzed from March 2023 through March 2024., Main Outcome and Measures: The outcome was suicide in the National Death Index. Predictors came from administrative records available before leaving service on sociodemographics, Army career characteristics, psychopathologic risk factors, indicators of physical health, social networks and supports, and stressors., Results: Of the 800 579 soldiers in the cohort (84.9% male; median [IQR] age at discharge, 26 [23-33] years), 2084 suicides had occurred as of December 31, 2019 (51.6 per 100 000 person-years). A lasso model assuming consistent slopes over time discriminated as well over all but the shortest risk horizons as more complex stacked generalization ensemble machine learning models. Test sample area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.87 (SE = 0.06) for suicides in the first month after leaving service to 0.72 (SE = 0.003) for suicides over 120 months. The 10% of soldiers with highest predicted risk accounted for between 30.7% (SE = 1.8) and 46.6% (SE = 6.6) of all suicides across horizons. Calibration was for the most part better for the lasso model than the super learner model (both estimated over 120-month horizons.) Net benefit of a model-informed prevention strategy was positive compared with intervene-with-all or intervene-with-none strategies over a range of plausible intervention thresholds. Sociodemographics, Army career characteristics, and psychopathologic risk factors were the most important classes of predictors., Conclusions and Relevance: These results demonstrated that a model based on administrative variables available at the time of leaving active Army service can predict suicides with meaningful accuracy over the subsequent decade. However, final determination of cost-effectiveness would require information beyond the scope of this report about intervention content, costs, and effects over relevant horizons in relation to the monetary value placed on preventing suicides.

Background: The period after psychiatric hospital discharge is one of elevated risk for suicide-related behaviors (SRBs). Post-discharge clinical outreach, although potentially effective in preventing SRBs, would be more cost-effective if targeted at high-risk patients. To this end, a machine learning model was developed to predict post-discharge suicides among Veterans Health Administration (VHA) psychiatric inpatients and target a high-risk preventive intervention., Methods: The Veterans Coordinated Community Care (3C) Study is a multicenter randomized controlled trial using this model to identify high-risk VHA psychiatric inpatients (n = 850) randomized with equal allocation to either the Coping Long Term with Active Suicide Program (CLASP) post-discharge clinical outreach intervention or treatment-as-usual (TAU). The primary outcome is SRBs over a 6-month follow-up. We will estimate average treatment effects adjusted for loss to follow-up and investigate the possibility of heterogeneity of treatment effects., Results: Recruitment is underway and will end September 2024. Six-month follow-up will end and analysis will begin in Summer 2025., Conclusion: Results will provide information about the effectiveness of CLASP versus TAU in reducing post-discharge SRBs and provide guidance to VHA clinicians and policymakers about the implications of targeted use of CLASP among high-risk psychiatric inpatients in the months after hospital discharge., Clinical Trials Registration: ClinicalTrials.Gov identifier: NCT05272176 (https://www., Clinicaltrials: gov/ct2/show/NCT05272176)., (© 2024 The Author(s). International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Study Objectives: The standard of care for military personnel with insomnia is cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBT-I). However, only a minority seeking insomnia treatment receive CBT-I, and little reliable guidance exists to identify those most likely to respond. As a step toward personalized care, we present results of a machine learning (ML) model to predict CBT-I response., Methods: Administrative data were examined for n = 1,449 nondeployed US Army soldiers treated for insomnia with CBT-I who had moderate-severe baseline Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) scores and completed 1 or more follow-up ISIs 6-12 weeks after baseline. An ensemble ML model was developed in a 70% training sample to predict clinically significant ISI improvement (reduction of at least 2 standard deviations on the baseline ISI distribution). Predictors included a wide range of military administrative and baseline clinical variables. Model accuracy was evaluated in the remaining 30% test sample., Results: 19.8% of patients had clinically significant ISI improvement. Model area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (standard error) was 0.60 (0.03). The 20% of test-sample patients with the highest probabilities of improvement were twice as likely to have clinically significant improvement compared with the remaining 80% (36.5% vs 15.7%; χ 2 1 = 9.2, P = .002). Nearly 85% of prediction accuracy was due to 10 variables, the most important of which were baseline insomnia severity and baseline suicidal ideation., Conclusions: Pending replication, the model could be used as part of a patient-centered decision-making process for insomnia treatment. Parallel models will be needed for alternative treatments before such a system is of optimal value., Citation: Gabbay FH, Wynn GH, Georg MW, et al. Toward personalized care for insomnia in the US Army: a machine learning model to predict response to cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia. J Clin Sleep Med . 2024;20(6):921-931., (© 2024 American Academy of Sleep Medicine.)