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Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.

It is a critical time to reflect on the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) science to date as well as envision what research can be done right now with NEON (and other) data and what training is needed to enable a diverse user community. NEON became fully operational in May 2019 and has pivoted from planning and construction to operation and maintenance. In this overview, the history of and foundational thinking around NEON are discussed. A framework of open science is described with a discussion of how NEON can be situated as part of a larger data constellation—across existing networks and different suites of ecological measurements and sensors. Next, a synthesis of early NEON science, based on >100 existing publications, funded proposal efforts, and emergent science at the very first NEON Science Summit (hosted by Earth Lab at the University of Colorado Boulder in October 2019) is provided. Key questions that the ecology community will address with NEON data in the next 10 yr are outlined, from understanding drivers of biodiversity across spatial and temporal scales to defining complex feedback mechanisms in human–environmental systems. Last, the essential elements needed to engage and support a diverse and inclusive NEON user community are highlighted: training resources and tools that are openly available, funding for broad community engagement initiatives, and a mechanism to share and advertise those opportunities. NEON users require both the skills to work with NEON data and the ecological or environmental science domain knowledge to understand and interpret them. This paper synthesizes early directions in the community’s use of NEON data, and opportunities for the next 10 yr of NEON operations in emergent science themes, open science best practices, education and training, and community building.

Ecosystem resilience to climate change is contingent on post-disturbance plant regeneration. Sparse gymnosperm regeneration has been documented in subalpine forests following recent wildfires and compounded disturbances, both of which are increasing. In the US Intermountain West, this may cause a shift to non-forest in some areas, but other forests may demonstrate adaptive resilience through increased quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx . ) dominance. However, this potential depends on ill-defined constraints of aspen sexual regeneration under current climate. We created an ensemble of species distribution models for aspen seedling distribution following severe wildfire to define constraints on establishment. We recorded P. tremuloides seedling locations across a post-fire, post-blowdown landscape. We used 3 algorithms (Mahalanobis Typicalities, Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network, and MaxEnt) to create spatial distribution models for aspen seedlings and to define constraints. Each model performed with high accuracy and was incorporated into an ensemble model, which performed with the highest overall accuracy of all the models. Populus tremuloides seedling distribution is constrained primarily by proximity to unburned aspen forest and annual temperature ranges, and secondarily by light availability, summer precipitation, and fire severity. Based on model predictions and validation data, P. tremuloides seedling regeneration is viable throughout 54% of the post-fire landscape, 97% of which was previously conifer-dominated. Aspen are less susceptible to many climatically-sensitive disturbances (e.g. fire, beetle outbreak, wind disturbance), thus, aspen expansion represents an important adaptation to climate change. Continued aspen expansion into post-disturbance landscapes through sexual reproduction at the level suggested by these results would represent an important adaptation to climate change and would confer adaptive forest resilience by maintaining forest cover, but would also alter future disturbance regimes, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]