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Background. Validated microsimulation models have been shown to be useful tools in providing support for colorec- tal cancer (CRC) screening decisions. Aiming to assist European co

Objective: The national population-based colorectal cancer screening programme in Hungary was initiated in December 2018. We aimed to evaluate the current programme and investigate the costs and benefits of potential future changes to overcome the low coverage of the target population. Methods: We performed an economic evaluation from a healthcare payer perspective using an established micro-simulation model (Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon). We simulated costs and benefits of screening with fecal immunochemical test in the Hungarian population aged 50–100, investigating also the impact of potential future scenarios which were assumed to increase invitation coverage: improvement of the IT platform currently used by GPs or distributing the tests through pharmacies instead of GPs. Results: The model predicted that the current screening programme could

The aim of this thesis is to first describe the steps that are required to standardize the structure of a microsimulation model (as MISCAN-Colon) and make it as the core of an online user-friendly model application. Briefly, these steps include: i) assessing effectiveness of CRC screening in different screening settings; ii) validating the model structure and its assumptions; and iii) building an online user-friendly platform that allow users to easily upload country-specific data, adjust a model, and simulate future outcomes of CRC screening in their countries. Subsequently, this thesis aims to demonstrate how models can be used to help policymakers in their decisions about CRC screening regarding populations at different risk of CRC.

Background: Organised cervical cancer (CC) screening programmes are delivered in many different ways across the European Union and its regions. Our aim was to systematically review the impact of these programs on CC mortality. Methods: Two independent reviewers identified all eligible studies investigating the effect of organised screening on CC mortality in Europe. Six databases including Embase, Medline and Web of Science were searched (March 2018) with predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Only original studies with at least five years of follow-up were considered. Validated tools

Background: The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of organised mammography screening on breast cancer mortality across European regions. Therefore, a systematic review was performed including different types of studies from all European regions and stringently used clearly defined quality appraisal to summarise the best evidence. Methods: Six databases were searched including Embase, Medline and Web of Science from inception to March 2018. To identify all eligible studies which assessed the effect of organised screening on breast cancer mortality, two reviewers independently applied predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Original studies in English with a minimum follow-up of five years that were randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or observational studies were included. The Cochrane risk of bias instrument and the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale were used to assess the risk of bias. Results: Of the 5015 references initially retrieved, 60 were included in the final analysis. Those comprised 3

Background: Populations differ with respect to their cancer risk and screening preferences, which may influence the performance of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs. This review aims to systematically compare the mortality effect of CRC screening across European regions. Methods: Six databases including Embase, Medline, Web of Science, PubMed publisher, Google Scholar and Cochrane Library were searched for relevant studies published before March 2018. Bibliographic searches were conducted to select studies assessing the effect of various screening tests (guaiac fecal occult blood test [gFOBT]; flexible sigmoidoscopy [FS]; fecal immunochemical test [FIT] and colonoscopy) on CRC mortality in Europe (PROSPERO protocol: CRD42016042433). Abstract reviewing, data extraction and risk of bias assessment were conducted independently by two reviewers. Results: A total of 18 studies were included; of which, 11 were related to gFOBT, 4 to FS, 2 to FIT and 1 to colonoscopy; 8 were randomised clinical trials, and 10, observational studies, and an approximately equal number of studies represented Northern, Western and Southern European regions. Among individuals invited to screening, CRC mortality reductions varied from 8% to 16% for gFOBT and from 21% to 30% for FS. When studies with a high risk of bias were considered, ranges were more extensive. The estimated effectiveness of gFOBT and FS screening appeared similar across different European regions. Conclusions: CRC mortality impact of inviting individuals with similar adopted screening strategies (gFOBT or FS) may be consistent across several European settings.

Background: All-cause mortality has been suggested as an end-point in cancer screening trials in order to avoid biases in attributing the cause of death. The aim of this study was to investigate which sample size and follow-up is needed to find a significant reduction in all-cause mortality. Methods: A literature review was conducted to identify previous studies that modeled the effect of screening on all-cause mortality. Microsimulation modeling was used to simulate breast cancer, lung cancer, and colorectal cancer screening trials. Model outputs were: cancer-specific deaths, all-cause deaths, and life-years gained per year of follow-up. Results: There were large differences between the evaluated cancers. For lung cancer, when 40 000 high-risk people are randomized to each arm, a significant reduction in all-cause mortality could be expected between 11 and 13 years of follow-up. For breast cancer, a significant reduction could be found between 16 and 26 years of follow-up for a sample size of over 300 000 women in each arm. For colorectal cancer, 600 000 persons in each arm were required to be followed for 15-20 years. Our systematic literature review identified seven papers, which showed highly similar results to our estimates. Conclusion: Cancer screening trials are able to demonstrate a significant reduction in all-cause mortality due to screening, but require very large sample sizes. Depending on the cancer, 40 000-600 000 pa

Background & Aims: Individuals with cystic fibrosis are at increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) compared with the general population, and risk is higher among those who received an organ transplant. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine optimal CRC screening strategies for patients with cystic fibrosis. Methods: We adjusted the existing Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon model to reflect increased CRC risk and lower life expectancy in patients with cystic fibrosis. Modeling was performed separately for individuals who never received an organ transplant and patients who had received an organ transplant. We modeled 76 colonoscopy screening strategies that varied the age range and screening interval. The optimal screening strategy was determined based on a willingness to pay threshold of $100,000 per life-year gained. Sensitivity and supplementary analyses were performed, including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) as an alternative test, earlier ages of transplantation, and increased rates of colonoscopy complications, to assess if optimal screening strategies would change. Results: Colonoscopy every 5 years, starting at an age of 40 years, was the optimal colonoscopy strategy for patients with cystic fibrosis who never received an organ transplant; this strategy prevented 79% of deaths from CRC. Among patients with cystic fibrosis who had received an organ transplant, optimal colonoscopy screening should start at an age of 30 or 35 years, depending on the patient's age at time of transplantation. Annual FIT screening was predicted to be cost-effective for patients with cystic fibrosis. However, the level of accuracy of the FIT in this population is not clear. Conclusions: Using a Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon model, we found screening of patients with cystic fibrosis for CRC to be cost effective. Because of the higher risk of CRC in these patients, screening should start at an earlier age with a shorter screening interval. The fi