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The variability in the magnetic activity of the Sun is the main source of the observed changes in the plasma and electromagnetic environments within the heliosphere. The primary way in which solar activity affects the Earth's environment is via the solar wind and its transients. However, the relationship between solar activity and solar wind is not the same at the Space Weather and Space Climate time scales. In this work, we investigate this relationship exploiting five solar cycles data of Ca II K index and solar wind parameters, by taking advantage of the Hilbert-Huang Transform, which allows to separate the contribution at the different time scales. By filtering out the high frequency components and looking at decennial time scales, we confirm the presence of a delayed response of solar wind to Ca II K index variations, with a time lag of ~ 3.1-year for the speed and ~ 3.4-year for the dynamic pressure. To assess the results in a stronger framework, we make use of a Transfer Entropy approach to investigate the information flow between the quantities and to test the causality of the relation. The time lag results from the latter are consistent with the cross-correlation ones, pointing out the presence of a statistical significant information flow from Ca II K index to solar wind dynamic pressure that peaks at time lag of 3.6-year. Such a result could be of relevance to build up a predictive model in a Space Climate context.

Solar flares, along with other sun-originated events such as Coronal Mass Ejections, fast solar wind streams, and solar energetic particles are among the most relevant events in Space Weather. Moreover, solar flares are the most energetic processes that occur in our solar system. The in-depth study of their occurrence statistics, both over extended periods or during individual solar cycles, allows us to improve and constrain the basic physical models of their origin. Increasing the number of detected events, especially those of lower intensity, and the number of physical parameters that describe the detected flares is, therefore, a mandatory goal. In this paper, we present a computationally efficient algorithm for the detection of solar flares in the soft-X solar flux provided by the GOES (NASA/NOAA) satellite constellation. Our code produces a new flare catalogue increasing the number of events with respect to the official GOES list. In addition to increasing the number of identified events, the catalogue contains information such as: an estimate of the total energy released, start and end time of the event, possible overlap with other events, background level of the GOES X-ray emission close to the revealed event. After a detailed description of the detection algorithm, we carry out a preliminary analysis of the flares reported in our catalogue and compare our results with the official list of GOES for the period from 1998 to 2020., Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures

We present the results of the analysis of the photometric data collected in long and short-cadence mode by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) for GJ 504, a well studied planet-hosting solar-like star, whose fundamental parameters have been largely debated during the last decade. Several attempts have been made by the present authors to isolate the oscillatory properties expected on this main-sequence star, but we did not find any presence of solar-like pulsations. The suppression of the amplitude of the acoustic modes can be explained by the high level of magnetic activity revealed for this target, not only by the study of the photometric light-curve, but also by the analysis of three decades available of Mount Wilson spectroscopic data. In particular, our measurements of the stellar rotational period Prot=3.4 d and of the main principal magnetic cycle of 12 a confirm previous findings and allow us to locate this star in the early main sequence phase of its evolution during which the chromospheric activity is dominated by the superposition of several cycles before the transition to the phase of the magnetic-braking shutdown with the subsequent decrease of the magnetic activity.

The Earth's magnetosphere extension is controlled by the solar activity level via solar wind properties. Understanding such a relation in the Solar System is important for predicting also the condition of exoplanetary magnetospheres near Sun-like stars. We use measurements of a chromospheric proxy, the Ca II K index, and solar wind OMNI parameters to connect the solar activity variations, on the decennial time scales, to the solar wind properties. The data span over the time interval 1965-2021, which almost entirely covers the last 5 solar cycles. Using both cross-correlation and mutual information analysis, a 3.2-year lag of the solar wind speed with respect to the Ca II K index is found. Analogously, a 3.6-year lag is found once considering the dynamic pressure. A correlation between the solar wind dynamic pressure and the solar UV emission is found and used to derive the Earth's magnetopause standoff distance. Moreover, the advantage of using a chromospheric proxy, such as the Ca II K index, opens the possibility to extend the relation found for the Sun to Sun-like stars, by linking stellar variability to stellar wind properties. The model is applied to a sample of Sun-like stars as a case study, where we assume the presence of an Earth-like exoplanet at 1 AU. Finally, we compare our results with previous estimates of the magnetosphere extension for the same set of Sun-like stars., Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures

In recent years, ensemble modeling has been widely employed in space weather to estimate uncertainties in forecasts. We here focus on the ensemble modeling of CME arrival times and arrival velocities using a drag-based model, which is well-suited for this purpose due to its simplicity and low computational cost. Although ensemble techniques have previously been applied to the drag-based model, it is still not clear how to best determine distributions for its input parameters, namely the drag parameter and the solar wind speed. The aim of this work is to evaluate statistical distributions for these model parameters starting from a list of past CME-ICME events. We employ LASCO coronagraph observations to measure initial CME position and speed, and in situ data to associate them with an arrival date and arrival speed. For each event we ran a statistical procedure to invert the model equations, producing parameters distributions as output. Our results indicate that the distributions employed in previous works were appropriately selected, even though they were based on restricted samples and heuristic considerations. On the other hand, possible refinements to the current method are also identified, such as the dependence of the drag parameter distribution on the CME being accelerated or decelerated by the solar wind, which deserve further investigation., Comment: 25 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication by Space Weather Journal. The ICME catalog built for the analysis in Section 3, together with a tool for the data visualization and the module employed for running the PDBM simulations, can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5818470 (Napoletano et al., 2021)

Observation of auroras at low latitudes is an extremely rare event typically associated with major magnetic storms due to intense Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections. Since these energetic events represent one of the most important components of space weather their study is of paramount importance to understand the Sun-Earth connection. Due to the rarity of these events, being able to access all available information for the few cases studied is equally important. Especially if we refer to historical periods in which current accurate observations from ground-based instruments or from space were not available. Certainly, among these events we must include the great aurora of February 4, 1872. An event whose effects have been observed in different regions of the Earth. What we could consider today a global event, especially for its effects on the communication systems of the time, such as the transatlantic cable that allowed a connection between the United States and Europe since 1866. In this paper we describe the main results of the observations and studies carried out by Angelo Secchi at the Observatory of the Roman College and described in his "Memoria sull'Aurora Elettrica del 4 Febbraio 1872" for the Notes of the Pontifical Academy of new Lincei. This note is extremely modern both in its multi-instrumental approach to the study of these phenomena and in its association between solar-terrestrial connection and technological infrastructures on the Earth. The Secchi's note definitely represents the first example of analysis and study of an event on a global scale, such as the Atlantic cable, affecting the Earth. What we nowadays call an extreme space weather event., Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures

Solar flares emanate from solar active regions hosting complex and strong bipolar magnetic fluxes. Estimating the probability of an active region to flare and defining reliable precursors of intense flares is an extremely challenging task in the space weather field. In this work, we focus on two metrics as flare precursors, the unsigned flux R, tested on MDI/SOHO data and one of the most used parameters for flare forecasting applications, and a novel topological parameter D representing the complexity of a solar active region. More in detail, we propose an algorithm for the computation of the R value which exploits the higher spatial resolution of HMI maps. This algorithm leads to a differently computed R value, whose functionality is tested on a set of cycle 24th solar flares. Furthermore, we introduce a topological parameter based on the automatic recognition of magnetic polarity-inversion lines in identified active regions, and able to evaluate its magnetic topological complexity. We use both a heuristic approach and a supervised machine learning method to validate the effectiveness of these two descriptors to predict the occurrence of X- or M- class flares in a given solar active region during the following 24 hours period. Our feature ranking analysis shows that both parameters play a significant role in prediction performances. Moreover, the analysis demonstrates that the new topological parameter D is the only one, among 173 overall predictors, which is always present for all test subsets and is systematically ranked within the top-ten positions in all tests concerning the computation of the weighs with which each predictor impacts the flare forecasting., Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures, accepted in the Astrophysical Journal

The discovery of a planet orbiting around Proxima Centauri, the closest star to the Sun, opens new avenues for the remote observations of the atmosphere and surface of an exoplanet, Proxima b. To date, three-dimensional (3D) General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the best available tools to investigate the properties of the exo-atmospheres, waiting for the next generation of space and groundbased telescopes. In this work, we use the PlanetSimulator (PlaSim), an intermediate complexity 3D GCM, a flexible and fast model, suited to handle all the orbital and physical parameters of a planet and to study the dynamics of its atmosphere. Assuming an Earth-like atmosphere and a 1:1 spin/orbit configuration (tidal locking), our simulations of Proxima b are consistent with a day-side open ocean planet with a superrotating atmosphere. Moreover, because of the limited representation of the radiative transfer in PlaSim, we compute the spectrum of the exoplanet with an offline Radiative Transfer Code with a spectral resolution of 1 nm. This spectrum is used to derive the thermal phase curves for different orbital inclination angles. In combination with instrumental detection sensitivities, the different thermal phase curves are used to evaluate observation conditions at ground level (e.g., ELT) or in space (e.g., JWST). We estimated the exposure time to detect Proxima b (assuming an Earth-like atmosphere) thermal phase curve in the FIR with JWST with signal-to-noise ratio $\simeq$1. Under the hypothesis of total noise dominated by shot noise, neglecting other possible extra contribution producing a noise floor, the exposure time is equal to 5 hours for each orbital epoch., Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures, accepted in the Astrophysical Journal

The forecast of the time of arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) to Earth is of critical importance for our high-technology society and for any future manned exploration of the Solar System. As critical as the forecast accuracy is the knowledge of its precision, i.e. the error associated to the estimate. We propose a statistical approach for the computation of the time of arrival using the drag-based model by introducing the probability distributions, rather than exact values, as input parameters, thus allowing the evaluation of the uncertainty on the forecast. We test this approach using a set of CMEs whose transit times are known, and obtain extremely promising results: the average value of the absolute differences between measure and forecast is 9.1h, and half of these residuals are within the estimated errors. These results suggest that this approach deserves further investigation. We are working to realize a real-time implementation which ingests the outputs of automated CME tracking algorithms as inputs to create a database of events useful for a further validation of the approach., Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures

Hyperspectral imaging is an ubiquitous technique in solar physics observations and the recent advances in solar instrumentation enabled us to acquire and record data at an unprecedented rate. The huge amount of data which will be archived in the upcoming solar observatories press us to compress the data in order to reduce the storage space and transfer times. The correlation present over all dimensions, spatial, temporal and spectral, of solar data-sets suggests the use of a 3D base wavelet decomposition, to achieve higher compression rates. In this work, we evaluate the performance of the recent JPEG2000 Part 10 standard, known as JP3D, for the lossless compression of several types of solar data-cubes. We explore the differences in: a) The compressibility of broad-band or narrow-band time-sequence; I or V stokes profiles in spectropolarimetric data-sets; b) Compressing data in [x,y,$\lambda$] packages at different times or data in [x,y,t] packages of different wavelength; c) Compressing a single large data-cube or several smaller data-cubes; d) Compressing data which is under-sampled or super-sampled with respect to the diffraction cut-off.

The investigation of dynamics of the small scale magnetic field on the Sun photosphere is necessary to understand the physical processes occurring in the higher layers of solar atmosphere due to the magnetic coupling between the photosphere and the corona. We present a simulation able to address these phenomena investigating the statistics of magnetic loops reconnections. The simulation is based on N-body model approach and is divided in two computational layers. We simplify the convection problem, interpreting the larger convective scale, mesogranulation, as the result of the collective interaction of convective downflow of granular scale. The N-body advection model is the base to generate a synthetic time series of nanoflares produced by interacting magnetic loops. The reconnection of magnetic field lines is the result of the advection of the magnetic footpoints following the velocity field generated by the interacting downflows. The model gives a quantitative idea of how much energy is expected to be released by the reconfiguration of magnetic loops in the quiet Sun., Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures. To be published in "Journal of Physics: Conference Series" as part of the proceedings of the sixth edition of the Young Researcher Meeting (YRM), 12-14 October 2015, L'Aquila, Italy. http://www.yrmr.it/