239 results on '"Goelzer, Heiko"'
Search Results
2. Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets
- Author
-
Hanna, Edward, Topál, Dániel, Box, Jason E., Buzzard, Sammie, Christie, Frazer D. W., Hvidberg, Christine, Morlighem, Mathieu, De Santis, Laura, Silvano, Alessandro, Colleoni, Florence, Sasgen, Ingo, Banwell, Alison F., van den Broeke, Michiel R., DeConto, Robert, De Rydt, Jan, Goelzer, Heiko, Gossart, Alexandra, Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar, Lindbäck, Katrin, Miles, Bertie, Mottram, Ruth, Pattyn, Frank, Reese, Ronja, Rignot, Eric, Srivastava, Aakriti, Sun, Sainan, Toller, Justin, Tuckett, Peter A., and Ultee, Lizz
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise
- Author
-
Edwards, Tamsin L, Nowicki, Sophie, Marzeion, Ben, Hock, Regine, Goelzer, Heiko, Seroussi, Hélène, Jourdain, Nicolas C, Slater, Donald A, Turner, Fiona E, Smith, Christopher J, McKenna, Christine M, Simon, Erika, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Gregory, Jonathan M, Larour, Eric, Lipscomb, William H, Payne, Antony J, Shepherd, Andrew, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Anderson, Brian, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bliss, Andrew, Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Champollion, Nicolas, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Fujita, Koji, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R, Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J, Humbert, Angelika, Huss, Matthias, Huybrechts, Philippe, Immerzeel, Walter, Kleiner, Thomas, Kraaijenbrink, Philip, Le clec’h, Sébastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter R, Little, Christopher M, Lowry, Daniel P, Malles, Jan-Hendrik, Martin, Daniel F, Maussion, Fabien, Morlighem, Mathieu, O’Neill, James F, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F, Quiquet, Aurélien, Radić, Valentina, Reese, Ronja, Rounce, David R, Rückamp, Martin, Sakai, Akiko, Shafer, Courtney, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Shannon, Sarah, Smith, Robin S, Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D, Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik, van den Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zekollari, Harry, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, and Zwinger, Thomas
- Subjects
Earth Sciences ,Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience ,Climate Action ,General Science & Technology - Abstract
The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2-8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.
- Published
- 2021
4. Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP)
- Author
-
Sun, Sainan, Pattyn, Frank, Simon, Erika G, Albrecht, Torsten, Cornford, Stephen, Calov, Reinhard, Dumas, Christophe, Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien, Goelzer, Heiko, Golledge, Nicholas R, Greve, Ralf, Hoffman, Matthew J, Humbert, Angelika, Kazmierczak, Elise, Kleiner, Thomas, Leguy, Gunter R, Lipscomb, William H, Martin, Daniel, Morlighem, Mathieu, Nowicki, Sophie, Pollard, David, Price, Stephen, Quiquet, Aurélien, Seroussi, Hélène, Schlemm, Tanja, Sutter, Johannes, van de Wal, Roderik SW, Winkelmann, Ricarda, and Zhang, Tong
- Subjects
Earth Sciences ,Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience ,Geology ,Climate Action ,Antarctic glaciology ,ice-sheet modelling ,ice shelves ,Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ,Physical geography and environmental geoscience - Abstract
Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their 'buttressing' effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the 'end-member' scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1-12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91-5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.
- Published
- 2020
5. Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
- Author
-
Levermann, Anders, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Albrecht, Torsten, Goelzer, Heiko, Golledge, Nicholas R, Greve, Ralf, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jordan, Jim, Leguy, Gunter, Martin, Daniel, Morlighem, Mathieu, Pattyn, Frank, Pollard, David, Quiquet, Aurelien, Rodehacke, Christian, Seroussi, Helene, Sutter, Johannes, Zhang, Tong, Van Breedam, Jonas, Calov, Reinhard, DeConto, Robert, Dumas, Christophe, Garbe, Julius, Gudmundsson, G Hilmar, Hoffman, Matthew J, Humbert, Angelika, Kleiner, Thomas, Lipscomb, William H, Meinshausen, Malte, Ng, Esmond, Nowicki, Sophie MJ, Perego, Mauro, Price, Stephen F, Saito, Fuyuki, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Sun, Sainan, and van de Wal, Roderik SW
- Subjects
Earth Sciences ,Oceanography ,Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience ,Geology ,Climate Action ,Atmospheric Sciences ,Climate change science ,Geoinformatics - Abstract
The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 °C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles.We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.
- Published
- 2020
6. Historically consistent mass loss projections of the Greenland ice sheet
- Author
-
Rahlves, Charlotte, primary, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Born, Andreas, additional, and Langebroek, Petra M., additional
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
7. Supplementary material to "Historically consistent mass loss projections of the Greenland ice sheet"
- Author
-
Rahlves, Charlotte, primary, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Born, Andreas, additional, and Langebroek, Petra M., additional
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
8. The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through ISMIP6 framework: Sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction
- Author
-
Jager, Eliot, primary, Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien, additional, Champollion, Nicolas, additional, Millan, Romain, additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, and Mouginot, Jérémie, additional
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
9. Supplementary material to "The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through ISMIP6 framework: Sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction"
- Author
-
Jager, Eliot, primary, Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien, additional, Champollion, Nicolas, additional, Millan, Romain, additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, and Mouginot, Jérémie, additional
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
10. Abrupt increase in Greenland melt governed by atmospheric wave change
- Author
-
Graversen, Rune Grand, primary, Heiskanen, Tuomas, additional, Bintanja, Richard, additional, and Goelzer, Heiko, additional
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
11. Investigating the evolution and stability of the Greenland ice sheet using remapped surface mass balance forcing
- Author
-
Rahlves, Charlotte, primary, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, and Petrini, Michele, additional
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
12. Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison.
- Author
-
Goelzer, Heiko, Nowicki, Sophie, Edwards, Tamsin, Beckley, Matthew, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Aschwanden, Andy, Calov, Reinhard, Gagliardini, Olivier, Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien, Golledge, Nicholas R, Gregory, Jonathan, Greve, Ralf, Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Kennedy, Joseph H, Larour, Eric, Lipscomb, William H, Clećh, Sébastien Le, Lee, Victoria, Morlighem, Mathieu, Pattyn, Frank, Payne, Antony J, Rodehacke, Christian, Rückamp, Martin, Saito, Fuyuki, Schlegel, Nicole, Seroussi, Helene, Shepherd, Andrew, Sun, Sainan, van de Wal, Roderik, and Ziemen, Florian A
- Subjects
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ,Oceanography ,Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience - Abstract
Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g., those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of the initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of 1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and 2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly), and should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap, but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.
- Published
- 2019
13. Uncertain Pathways to a Future Safe Climate
- Author
-
Sherwood, Steven, primary, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L, additional, Holland, Elisabeth, additional, Hegerl, Gabriele, additional, Renwick, James Arthur, additional, Reed, Kevin A., additional, Kim, Hyungjun, additional, Harris, Neil, additional, Bracconot, Pascale, additional, Nobre, Paulo, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Wel, Narelle van der, additional, Mitchell, Molly, additional, and Naish, Tim, additional
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
14. Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
- Author
-
Seroussi, Hélène, primary, Verjans, Vincent, additional, Nowicki, Sophie, additional, Payne, Antony J., additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Agosta, Cécile, additional, Albrecht, Torsten, additional, Asay-Davis, Xylar, additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Calov, Reinhard, additional, Cullather, Richard, additional, Dumas, Christophe, additional, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K., additional, Gladstone, Rupert, additional, Golledge, Nicholas R., additional, Gregory, Jonathan M., additional, Greve, Ralf, additional, Hattermann, Tore, additional, Hoffman, Matthew J., additional, Humbert, Angelika, additional, Huybrechts, Philippe, additional, Jourdain, Nicolas C., additional, Kleiner, Thomas, additional, Larour, Eric, additional, Leguy, Gunter R., additional, Lowry, Daniel P., additional, Little, Chistopher M., additional, Morlighem, Mathieu, additional, Pattyn, Frank, additional, Pelle, Tyler, additional, Price, Stephen F., additional, Quiquet, Aurélien, additional, Reese, Ronja, additional, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Smith, Robin S., additional, Straneo, Fiammetta, additional, Sun, Sainan, additional, Trusel, Luke D., additional, Van Breedam, Jonas, additional, Van Katwyk, Peter, additional, van de Wal, Roderik S. W., additional, Winkelmann, Ricarda, additional, Zhao, Chen, additional, Zhang, Tong, additional, and Zwinger, Thomas, additional
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
15. Mass balance of the ice sheets and glaciers – Progress since AR5 and challenges
- Author
-
Hanna, Edward, Pattyn, Frank, Navarro, Francisco, Favier, Vincent, Goelzer, Heiko, van den Broeke, Michiel R., Vizcaino, Miren, Whitehouse, Pippa L., Ritz, Catherine, Bulthuis, Kevin, and Smith, Ben
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
16. A topographically-controlled tipping point for complete Greenland ice-sheet melt
- Author
-
Petrini, Michele, primary, Scherrenberg, Meike, additional, Muntjewerf, Laura, additional, Vizcaino, Miren, additional, Sellevold, Raymond, additional, Leguy, Gunter, additional, Lipscomb, William, additional, and Goelzer, Heiko, additional
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
17. Insights on the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
- Author
-
Seroussi, Hélène, primary, Verjans, Vincent, additional, Nowicki, Sophie, additional, Payne, Antony J., additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Abe Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Agosta, Cécile, additional, Albrecht, Torsten, additional, Asay-Davis, Xylar, additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Calov, Reinhard, additional, Cullather, Richard, additional, Dumas, Christophe, additional, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K., additional, Gladstone, Rupert, additional, Golledge, Nicholas R., additional, Gregory, Jonathan M., additional, Greve, Ralf, additional, Hatterman, Tore, additional, Hoffman, Matthew J., additional, Humbert, Angelika, additional, Huybrechts, Philippe, additional, Jourdain, Nicolas C., additional, Kleiner, Thomas, additional, Larour, Eric, additional, Leguy, Gunter R., additional, Lowry, Daniel P., additional, Little, Chistopher M., additional, Morlighem, Mathieu, additional, Pattyn, Frank, additional, Pelle, Tyler, additional, Price, Stephen F., additional, Quiquet, Aurélien, additional, Reese, Ronja, additional, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Smith, Robin S., additional, Straneo, Fiametta, additional, Sun, Sainan, additional, Trusel, Luke D., additional, Van Breedam, Jonas, additional, Van Katwyk, Peter, additional, van de Wal, Roderik S. W., additional, Winkelmann, Ricarda, additional, Zhao, Chen, additional, Zhang, Tong, additional, and Zwinger, Thomas, additional
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
18. Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to temperature overshoot scenarios
- Author
-
Petrini, Michele, primary, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Langebroek, Petra, additional, Rahlves, Charlotte, additional, and Schwinger, Jörg, additional
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
19. The effect of an evolving Greenland ice sheet in NorESM2 projections
- Author
-
Haubner, Konstanze, primary, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Langebroek, Petra, additional, and Born, Andreas, additional
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
20. Uncertainties in Greenland ice sheet evolution and related sea-level projections until 2100
- Author
-
Rahlves, Charlotte, primary, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Langebroek, Petra, additional, and Born, Andreas, additional
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
21. Recent Progress in Greenland Ice Sheet Modelling
- Author
-
Goelzer, Heiko, Robinson, Alexander, Seroussi, Helene, and van de Wal, Roderik S.W.
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
22. Insights on the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty.
- Author
-
Seroussi, Hélène, Verjans, Vincent, Nowicki, Sophie, Payne, Antony J., Goelzer, Heiko, Lipscomb, William H., Ouchi, Ayako Abe, Agosta, Cécile, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Barthel, Alice, Calov, Reinhard, Cullather, Richard, Dumas, Christophe, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K., Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, and Hatterman, Tore
- Abstract
The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from -5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to 5 changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52% of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14% for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56% for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13% of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet, but varies between 4% for Thwaites glacier and 53% for Whillans ice stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice-climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22% of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale, but reaches 36 and 39% for Institute ice stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
23. Improving interpretation of sea-level projections through a machine-learning-based local explanation approach
- Author
-
Rohmer, Jeremy, primary, Thieblemont, Remi, additional, Le Cozannet, Goneri, additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, and Durand, Gael, additional
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
24. Process-based estimate of global-mean sea-level changes in the Common Era
- Author
-
Gangadharan, Nidheesh, primary, Goosse, Hugues, additional, Parkes, David, additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Maussion, Fabien, additional, and Marzeion, Ben, additional
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
25. initMIP-Antarctica: an Ice Sheet Model Initialization Experiment of ISMIP6
- Author
-
Seroussi, Helene, Nowicki, Sophie, Simon, Erika, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Albrecht, Torsten, Brondex, Julien, Cornford, Stephen, Dumas, Christophe, Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien, Goelzer, Heiko, Golledge, Nicholas R, Gregory, Jonathan M, Greve, Ralf, Hoffman, Matthew J, Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Kleiner, Thomas, Larour, Eric, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H, Lowry, Daniel, Mengel, Matthias, Morlighem, Mathieu, Pattyn, Frank, Payne, Anthony J, Pollard, David, Price, Stephen F, Quiquet, Aurélien, Reerink, Thomas J, Reese, Ronja, Rodehacke, Christian B, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Shepherd, Andrew, Sun, Sainan, Sutter, Johannes, Breedam, Jonas Van, Wal, Roderik S. W. van de, Winkelmann, Ricarda, and Zhang, Tong
- Subjects
Geosciences (General) - Abstract
Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
26. Benchmarking the vertically integrated ice-sheet model IMAU-ICE (version 2.0)
- Author
-
Berends, Constantijn J., primary, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Reerink, Thomas J., additional, Stap, Lennert B., additional, and van de Wal, Roderik S. W., additional
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
27. The Utrecht Finite Volume Ice-Sheet Model: UFEMISM (version 1.0)
- Author
-
Berends, Constantijn J., Goelzer, Heiko, Van De Wal, Roderik S.W., Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, and Marine and Atmospheric Research
- Subjects
QE1-996.5 ,Finite volume method ,Computer science ,Heuristic ,Computation ,Earth and Planetary Sciences(all) ,Geology ,Glaciologie ,Grid ,Physics::Geophysics ,Ice-sheet model ,Modelling and Simulation ,Triangle mesh ,Point (geometry) ,Image resolution ,Algorithm - Abstract
Improving our confidence in future projections of sea-level rise requires models that can simulate ice-sheet evolution both in the future and in the geological past. A physically accurate treatment of large changes in ice-sheet geometry requires a proper treatment of processes near the margin, like grounding line dynamics, which in turn requires a high spatial resolution in that specific region, so that small-scale topographical features are resolved. This leads to a demand for computationally efficient models, where such a high resolution can be feasibly applied in simulations of 105-107 years in duration. Here, we present and evaluate a new ice-sheet model that solves the hybrid SIA-SSA approximation of the stress balance, including a heuristic rule for the groundingline flux. This is done on a dynamic adaptive mesh which is adapted to the modelled ice-sheet geometry during a simulation. Mesh resolution can be configured to be fine only at specified areas, such as the calving front or the grounding line, as well as specified point locations such as ice-core drill sites. This strongly reduces the number of grid points where the equations need to be solved, increasing the computational efficiency. A high resolution allows the model to resolve small geometrical features, such as outlet glaciers and sub-shelf pinning points, which can significantly affect large-scale ice-sheet dynamics. We show that the model reproduces the analytical solutions or model intercomparison benchmarks for a number of schematic ice-sheet configurations, indicating that the numerical approach is valid. Because of the unstructured triangular mesh, the number of vertices increases less rapidly with resolution than in a squaregrid model, greatly reducing the required computation time for high resolutions. A simulation of all four continental ice sheets during an entire 120 kyr glacial cycle, with a 4 km resolution near the grounding line, is expected to take 100- 200 wall clock hours on a 16-core system (1600-3200 core hours), implying that this model can be feasibly used for high-resolution palaeo-ice-sheet simulations., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published
- Published
- 2021
28. Rising Oceans Guaranteed: Arctic Land Ice Loss and Sea Level Rise
- Author
-
Moon, Twila, Ahlstrøm, Andreas, Goelzer, Heiko, Lipscomb, William, and Nowicki, Sophie
- Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology - Abstract
This paper reviews sea level contributions from land ice across the Arctic, including Greenland. We summarize ice loss measurement methods, ice loss mechanisms, and recent observations and projections, and highlight research advances over the last 3-5 years and remaining scientific challenges.
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
29. Coupled Greenland ice sheet-climate simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2)
- Author
-
Goelzer, Heiko, primary, Langebroek, Petra, additional, and Born, Andreas, additional
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
30. Modelling the 3-D evolution of glaciers at regional to global scales: challenges and opportunities
- Author
-
Zekollari, Harry, primary, Huss, Matthias, additional, Compagno, Loris, additional, Pattyn, Frank, additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Lhermitte, Stef, additional, Wouters, Bert, additional, and Farinotti, Daniel, additional
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
31. Reduced mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet under stratospheric aerosol injection
- Author
-
Greve, Ralf, primary, Moore, John C., additional, Zwinger, Thomas, additional, Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien, additional, Yue, Chao, additional, Zhao, Liyun, additional, and Goelzer, Heiko, additional
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
32. Supplementary material to "Process-based Estimate of Global-mean Sea-level Changes in the Common Era"
- Author
-
Nidheesh, Gangadharan, primary, Goosse, Hugues, additional, Parkes, David, additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Maussion, Fabien, additional, and Marzeion, Ben, additional
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
33. Process-based Estimate of Global-mean Sea-level Changes in the Common Era
- Author
-
Nidheesh, Gangadharan, primary, Goosse, Hugues, additional, Parkes, David, additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Maussion, Fabien, additional, and Marzeion, Ben, additional
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
34. A high-end estimate of sea-level rise for practitioners
- Author
-
van de Wal, Roderik S. W., primary, Nicholls, Robert James, additional, Behar, David, additional, Mcinnes, Kathleen Lynne, additional, Stammer, Detlef, additional, Lowe, Jason A., additional, Church, John Alexander, additional, DeConto, Robert M., additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Haasnoot, Marjolijn, additional, Haigh, Ivan David, additional, Hinkel, Jochen, additional, Horton, Benjamin P, additional, James, T S, additional, Jenkins, Adrian, additional, Le Cozannet, Gonéri, additional, Levermann, Anders, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Marzeion, Ben, additional, Pattyn, Frank, additional, Payne, Antony J, additional, Pfeffer, W. Tad, additional, Price, Stephen, additional, Seroussi, Helene, additional, Sun, S, additional, Veatch, W, additional, and White, Kathleen, additional
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
35. Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise
- Author
-
Shannon, Sarah R., Payne, Antony J., Bartholomew, Ian D., van den Broeke, Michiel R., Edwards, Tamsin L., Fettweis, Xavier, Gagliardini, Olivier, Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien, Goelzer, Heiko, Hoffman, Matthew J., Huybrechts, Philippe, Mair, Douglas W. F., Nienow, Peter W., Perego, Mauro, Price, Stephen F., Smeets, C. J. P. Paul, Sole, Andrew J., van de Wal, Roderik S. W., and Zwinger, Thomas
- Published
- 2013
36. Snowball Earth Bifurcations in a Fully-Implicit Earth System Model
- Author
-
Mulder, Thomas E., Goelzer, Heiko, Wubs, Fred W., Dijkstra, Henk A., Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Sub Physical Oceanography, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Sub Physical Oceanography, Marine and Atmospheric Research, and Computational and Numerical Mathematics
- Subjects
010506 paleontology ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,snowball Earth ,Applied Mathematics ,Geophysics ,Geological evidence ,01 natural sciences ,Physics::Geophysics ,Earth system model ,Bifurcation analysis ,Modeling and Simulation ,Modelling and Simulation ,Physics::Space Physics ,Snowball Earth ,Earth (chemistry) ,Astrophysics::Earth and Planetary Astrophysics ,General ,Engineering (miscellaneous) ,Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics ,Geology ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
There is now much geological evidence that the Earth was fully glaciated during several periods in the geological past (about 700[Formula: see text]Myr ago) and attained a so-called Snowball Earth (SBE) state. Additional support for this idea has come from climate models of varying complexity that show transitions to SBE states and undergo hysteresis under changes in solar radiation. In this paper, we apply large-scale bifurcation analyses to a novel, fully-implicit Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (I-EMIC) to study SBE transitions. The I-EMIC contains a primitive equation ocean model, a model for atmospheric heat and moisture transport, a sea ice component and formulations for the adjustment of albedo over snow and ice. With the I-EMIC, high-dimensional branches of the SBE bifurcation diagram are obtained through parameter continuation. We are able to identify stable and unstable equilibria and uncover an intricate bifurcation structure associated with the ice-albedo feedback. Moreover, large-scale linear stability analyses are performed near major bifurcations, revealing the spatial nature of destabilizing perturbations.
- Published
- 2021
37. Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
- Author
-
Payne, Antony J., primary, Nowicki, Sophie, additional, Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Agosta, Cécile, additional, Alexander, Patrick, additional, Albrecht, Torsten, additional, Asay‐Davis, Xylar, additional, Aschwanden, Andy, additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., additional, Calov, Reinhard, additional, Chambers, Christopher, additional, Choi, Youngmin, additional, Cullather, Richard, additional, Cuzzone, Joshua, additional, Dumas, Christophe, additional, Edwards, Tamsin L., additional, Felikson, Denis, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K., additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Gladstone, Rupert, additional, Golledge, Nicholas R., additional, Gregory, Jonathan M., additional, Greve, Ralf, additional, Hattermann, Tore, additional, Hoffman, Matthew J., additional, Humbert, Angelika, additional, Huybrechts, Philippe, additional, Jourdain, Nicolas C., additional, Kleiner, Thomas, additional, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, additional, Larour, Eric, additional, Le clec'h, Sebastien, additional, Lee, Victoria, additional, Leguy, Gunter, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Little, Christopher M., additional, Lowry, Daniel P., additional, Morlighem, Mathieu, additional, Nias, Isabel, additional, Pattyn, Frank, additional, Pelle, Tyler, additional, Price, Stephen F., additional, Quiquet, Aurélien, additional, Reese, Ronja, additional, Rückamp, Martin, additional, Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne, additional, Seroussi, Hélène, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Slater, Donald, additional, Smith, Robin S., additional, Straneo, Fiammetta, additional, Sun, Sainan, additional, Tarasov, Lev, additional, Trusel, Luke D., additional, Van Breedam, Jonas, additional, van de Wal, Roderik, additional, van den Broeke, Michiel, additional, Winkelmann, Ricarda, additional, Zhao, Chen, additional, Zhang, Tong, additional, and Zwinger, Thomas, additional
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
38. Two-way coupling of an ENSO model to the global climate model CLIMBER-3 [formula omitted]
- Author
-
Goelzer, Heiko, Levermann, Anders, and Rahmstorf, Stefan
- Published
- 2009
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
39. Correlations Between Sea-Level Components Are Driven by Regional Climate Change
- Author
-
Lambert, Erwin, Le Bars, Dewi, Goelzer, Heiko, van de Wal, Roderik S.W., Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Sub Physical Oceanography, Proceskunde, and Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res
- Subjects
projections ,correlations ,model ensemble ,Environmental Science(all) ,regional climate ,Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) ,sea level ,uncertainty - Abstract
The accurate quantification of uncertainties in regional sea-level projections is essential for guiding policy makers. As climate models do not currently simulate total sea level, these uncertainties must be quantified through summation of uncertainties in individual sea-level components. This summation depends on the correlation between the components, which has previously been prescribed or derived from each individual component's dependence on global mean surface temperature. In this study, we quantify, for the first time, regional correlations between sea-level components based on regional climate change projections. We compute regional sea-level projections consistent with climate projections from an ensemble of 14 Earth System Models. From the multi-model spread, we estimate the uncertainty in the regional climate's response to greenhouse forcing. To quantify the total uncertainty, we add the uncertainty in the response of sea-level components to this regional climate change. This approach reveals how regional climate processes impose correlations between sea-level components, affecting the total uncertainty. One example is an anti-correlation between North Atlantic sterodynamic change and Antarctic dynamic mass loss, suggesting a teleconnection established by the large-scale ocean circulation. We find that prescribed correlations, applied in the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, lead to a global overestimation in the uncertainty in regional sea-level projections on the order of 20%. Regionally, this overestimation exceeds 100%. We conclude that accurate uncertainty estimates of regional sea-level change must be based on projections of regional climate change and cannot be derived from global indicators such as global mean surface temperature.
- Published
- 2021
40. The Utrecht Finite Volume Ice-Sheet Model: UFEMISM
- Author
-
Berends, Tijn, primary, van de Wal, Roderik, additional, and Goelzer, Heiko, additional
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
41. Global Mean Sea-level Changes in the Last Two Millennia
- Author
-
Gangadharan, Nidheesh, primary, Goosse, Hugues, additional, Parkes, David, additional, and Goelzer, Heiko, additional
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
42. GrSMBMIP: Intercomparison of the modelled 1980-2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet
- Author
-
Fettweis, Xavier, Hofer, Stefan, Krebs-Kanzow, Uta, Amory, Charles, Aoki, Teruo, Berends, Constantijn J., Born, Andreas, Box, Jason E., Delhasse, Alison, Fujita, Koji, Gierz, Paul, Goelzer, Heiko, Hanna, Edward, Hashimoto, Akihiro, Huybrechts, Philippe, Kapsch, Marie Luise, King, Michalea D., Kittel, Christoph, Lang, Charlotte, Langen, Peter L., Lenaerts, Jan T.M., Liston, Glen E., Lohmann, Gerrit, Mernild, Sebastian H., Mikolajewicz, Uwe, Modali, Kameswarrao, Mottram, Ruth H., Niwano, Masashi, Noël, Brice, Ryan, Jonathan C., Smith, Amy, Streffing, Jan, Tedesco, Marco, Jan Van De Berg, Willem, Van Den Broeke, Michiel, Van De Wal, Roderik S.W., Van Kampenhout, Leo, Wilton, David, Wouters, Bert, Ziemen, Florian, Zolles, Tobias, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, and Marine and Atmospheric Research
- Subjects
Water Science and Technology ,Earth-Surface Processes - Abstract
Observations and models agree that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) has decreased since the end of the 1990s due to an increase in meltwater runoff and that this trend will accelerate in the future. However, large uncertainties remain, partly due to different approaches for modelling the GrIS SMB, which have to weigh physical complexity or low computing time, different spatial and temporal resolutions, different forcing fields, and different ice sheet topographies and extents, which collectively make an inter-comparison difficult. Our GrIS SMB model intercomparison project (GrSMBMIP) aims to refine these uncertainties by intercomparing 13 models of four types which were forced with the same ERA-Interim reanalysis forcing fields, except for two global models. We interpolate all modelled SMB fields onto a common ice sheet mask at 1 km horizontal resolution for the period 1980-2012 and score the outputs against (1) SMB estimates from a combination of gravimetric remote sensing data from GRACE and measured ice discharge; (2) ice cores, snow pits and in situ SMB observations; and (3) remotely sensed bare ice extent from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Spatially, the largest spread among models can be found around the margins of the ice sheet, highlighting model deficiencies in an accurate representation of the GrIS ablation zone extent and processes related to surface melt and runoff. Overall, polar regional climate models (RCMs) perform the best compared to observations, in particular for simulating precipitation patterns. However, other simpler and faster models have biases of the same order as RCMs compared with observations and therefore remain useful tools for long-term simulations or coupling with ice sheet models. Finally, it is interesting to note that the ensemble mean of the 13 models produces the best estimate of the present-day SMB relative to observations, suggesting that biases are not systematic among models and that this ensemble estimate can be used as a reference for current climate when carrying out future model developments. However, a higher density of in situ SMB observations is required, especially in the south-east accumulation zone, where the model spread can reach 2 m w.e. yr-1 due to large discrepancies in modelled snowfall accumulation.
- Published
- 2020
43. ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
- Author
-
Seroussi, Helene, Nowicki, Sophie, Payne, Antony J., Goelzer, Heiko, Lipscomb, William H., Abe Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cecile, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Barthel, Alice, Calov, Reinhard, Cullather, Richard, Dumas, Christophe, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas, Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hatterman, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Larour, Eric, Leguy, Gunter R., Lowry, Daniel P., Little, Chistopher M., Morlighem, Mathieu, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Trusel, Luke D., Breedam, Jonas, Wal, Roderik S. W., Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, and Zwinger, Thomas
- Abstract
Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and inform on the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimated the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes and the forcings employed. This study presents results from 18 simulations from 15 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100, forced with different scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) representative of the spread in climate model results. The contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). The evolution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss up to 21.0 cm SLE in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.5 and 16.5 cm SLE, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional mass loss of 8 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 AOGCMs show an overall mass loss of 10 mm SLE compared to simulations done under present-day conditions, with limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
44. ISMIP6 Antarctica
- Author
-
Seroussi, Helene, Nowicki, Sophie, Payne, Antony J., Goelzer, Heiko, Lipscomb, William H., Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cecile, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Barthel, Alice, Calov, Reinhard, Cullather, Richard, Dumas, Christophe, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K., Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Larour, Eric, Leguy, Gunter R., Lowry, Daniel P., Little, Chistopher M., Morlighem, Mathieu, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurelien, Reese, Ronja, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik S. W., Winkelmann, Ricarda (Prof. Dr.), Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, and Zwinger, Thomas
- Subjects
Institut für Physik und Astronomie ,ddc:530 - Abstract
Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between 7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between 6 :1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
- Published
- 2020
45. Process-based Estimate of Global-mean Sea-level Changes in the Common Era.
- Author
-
Nidheesh, Gangadharan, Goosse, Hugues, Parkes, David, Goelzer, Heiko, Maussion, Fabien, and Marzeion, Ben
- Subjects
ICE sheets ,ANTARCTIC ice ,GREENLAND ice ,MELTWATER ,TEMPERATURE control ,SEA level ,GLACIERS - Abstract
Though the global-mean sea level (GMSL) rose over the twentieth century with a positive contribution from thermosteric and barystatic (ice sheets and glaciers) sources, driving processes of GMSL changes during the pre-industrial common era (PCE; 1-1850 CE) are largely unknown. Here, the contributions of glacier and ice sheet mass variations and ocean thermal expansion to GMSL in the common era (1-2000 CE) are estimated based on simulations with different physical models. Although the twentieth-century global-mean thermosteric sea level (GMTSL) is mainly associated with temperature variations in the upper 700 meters (86 % in reconstruction and 74±8 % in model), GMTSL in the PCE is equally controlled by temperature changes below 700 meters. GMTSL does not vary more than ±2 cm during the PCE. GMSL contributions from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets tend to cancel each other during the PCE owing to their differing response to atmospheric conditions. The uncertainties of sea-level contribution from land-ice mass variations are large, especially over the first millennium. Despite underestimating the twentieth-century model GMSL, there is a general agreement between the model and reconstructed GMSL in the CE. Although the uncertainties remain large over the first millennium, model simulations point to glaciers as the dominant source of GMSL changes during the PCE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
46. Correlations Between Sea‐Level Components Are Driven by Regional Climate Change
- Author
-
Lambert, Erwin, primary, Le Bars, Dewi, additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, and van de Wal, Roderik S.W., additional
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
47. Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
- Author
-
Payne, Antony J, primary, Nowicki, Sophie, additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Agosta, Cécile, additional, Alexander, Patrick M., additional, Albrecht, Torsten, additional, Asay-Davis, Xylar S, additional, Aschwanden, Andy, additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., additional, Calov, Reinhard, additional, Chambers, Christopher, additional, Choi, Youngmin, additional, Cullather, Richard I., additional, Cuzzone, Joshua K, additional, dumas, Christophe, additional, Edwards, Tamsin, additional, Felikson, Denis, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin Keith, additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Gladstone, Rupert, additional, Golledge, Nicholas R., additional, Gregory, Jonathan M., additional, Greve, Ralf, additional, Hattermann, Tore, additional, Hoffman, Matthew J., additional, Humbert, Angelika, additional, Huybrechts, Philippe, additional, Jourdain, Nicolas C, additional, Kleiner, Thomas, additional, Kuipers Munneke, Peter, additional, Larour, Eric Yves, additional, Le clec'h, Sebastien, additional, Lee, Victoria, additional, Leguy, Gunter, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Little, Christopher M, additional, Lowry, Daniel P, additional, Morlighem, Mathieu, additional, Nias, Isabel, additional, Pattyn, Frank, additional, Pelle, Tyler, additional, Price, Stephen, additional, Quiquet, Aurelien, additional, Reese, Ronja, additional, Rückamp, Martin, additional, Schlegel, Nicole -J., additional, Seroussi, Helene, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Slater, Donald A, additional, Smith, Robin, additional, Straneo, Fiamma, additional, Sun, Sainan, additional, Tarasov, Lev, additional, Trusel, Luke, additional, Van Breedam, Jonas, additional, van de Wal, Roderik S. W., additional, van den Broeke, Michiel R., additional, Winkelmann, Ricarda, additional, Zhao, Chen, additional, Zhang, Tong, additional, and Zwinger, Thomas, additional
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
48. Remapping of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance anomalies for large ensemble sea-level change projections
- Author
-
Goelzer, Heiko, Noël, Brice P.Y., Edwards, Tamsin L., Fettweis, Xavier, Gregory, Jonathan M., Lipscomb, William H., Van De Wal, Roderik S.W., Van Den Broeke, Michiel R., Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, and Marine and Atmospheric Research
- Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Greenland ice sheet ,Forcing (mathematics) ,010502 geochemistry & geophysics ,01 natural sciences ,Physics::Geophysics ,Glacier mass balance ,lcsh:Environmental sciences ,Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Water Science and Technology ,Earth-Surface Processes ,lcsh:GE1-350 ,geography ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,Anomaly (natural sciences) ,lcsh:QE1-996.5 ,Elevation ,Glaciologie ,Geophysics ,lcsh:Geology ,Ice-sheet model ,13. Climate action ,Climate model ,Ice sheet ,Geology - Abstract
Future sea-level change projections with process-based stand-alone ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance (SMB) forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the geometry used by the climate model. We present a method for applying SMB forcing from climate models to a wide range of Greenland ice sheet models with varying and temporally evolving geometries. In order to achieve that, we translate a given SMB anomaly field as a function of absolute location to a function of surface elevation for 25 regional drainage basins, which can then be applied to different modelled ice sheet geometries. The key feature of the approach is the non-locality of this remapping process. The method reproduces the original forcing data closely when remapped to the original geometry. When remapped to different modelled geometries it produces a physically meaningful forcing with smooth and continuous SMB anomalies across basin divides. The method considerably reduces non-physical biases that would arise by applying the SMB anomaly derived for the climate model geometry directly to a large range of modelled ice sheet model geometries., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published
- Published
- 2020
49. Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution
- Author
-
Slater, Donald A., Felikson, Denis, Straneo, Fiamma, Goelzer, Heiko, Little, Christopher M., Morlighem, Mathieu, Fettweis, Xavier, Nowicki, Sophie, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of St Andrews. School of Geography & Sustainable Development, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, and Marine and Atmospheric Research
- Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Greenland ice sheet ,Climate change ,010502 geochemistry & geophysics ,01 natural sciences ,SDG 13 - Climate Action ,Sea level ,lcsh:Environmental sciences ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Water Science and Technology ,Earth-Surface Processes ,GC ,lcsh:GE1-350 ,geography ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,GE ,lcsh:QE1-996.5 ,Glacier ,DAS ,Future sea level ,Glaciologie ,Ice-sheet model ,lcsh:Geology ,Sea surface temperature ,Climatology ,GC Oceanography ,Ice sheet ,GE Environmental Sciences - Abstract
Changes in ocean temperature and salinity are expected to be an important determinant of the Greenland ice sheet's future sea level contribution. Yet, simulating the impact of these changes in continental-scale ice sheet models remains challenging due to the small scale of key physics, such as fjord circulation and plume dynamics, and poor understanding of critical processes, such as calving and submarine melting. Here we present the ocean forcing strategy for Greenland ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), the primary community effort to provide 21st century sea level projections for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Beginning from global atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, we describe two complementary approaches to provide ocean boundary conditions for Greenland ice sheet models, termed the “retreat” and “submarine melt” implementations. The retreat implementation parameterises glacier retreat as a function of projected subglacial discharge and ocean thermal forcing, is designed to be implementable by all ice sheet models and results in retreat of around 1 and 15 km by 2100 in RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The submarine melt implementation provides estimated submarine melting only, leaving the ice sheet model to solve for the resulting calving and glacier retreat and suggests submarine melt rates will change little under RCP2.6 but will approximately triple by 2100 under RCP8.5. Both implementations have necessarily made use of simplifying assumptions and poorly constrained parameterisations and, as such, further research on submarine melting, calving and fjord–shelf exchange should remain a priority. Nevertheless, the presented framework will allow an ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models to be systematically and consistently forced by the ocean for the first time and should result in a significant improvement in projections of the Greenland ice sheet's contribution to future sea level change., info:eu-repo/semantics/published
- Published
- 2020
50. Tropical versus high latitude freshwater influence on the Atlantic circulation
- Author
-
Goelzer, Heiko, Mignot, Juliette, Levermann, Anders, and Rahmstorf, Stefan
- Published
- 2006
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
Catalog
Discovery Service for Jio Institute Digital Library
For full access to our library's resources, please sign in.