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27. Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households

Author

Yuzuru Matsuoka, Gomi Kei, Yi-Ming Wei, and Biying Yu

Subjects
Consumption (economics), education.field_of_study, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Natural resource economics, 020209 energy, Time allocation, Population, Energy Engineering and Power Technology, Demographic transition, Context (language use), 02 engineering and technology, Energy consumption, Electronic, Optical and Magnetic Materials, Fuel Technology, Greenhouse gas, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Economics, education, China
Abstract

Population dynamics has been acknowledged as a key concern for projecting future emissions, partly because of the huge uncertainties related to human behaviour. However, the heterogeneous shifts of human behaviour in the process of demographic transition are not well explored when scrutinizing the impacts of population dynamics on carbon emissions. Here, we expand the existing population–economy–environment analytical structure to address the above limitations by representing the trend of demographic transitions to small-family and ageing society. We specifically accommodate for inter- and intra-life-stage variations in time allocation and consumption in the population rather than assuming a representative household, and take a less developed province, Sichuan, in China as the empirical context. Our results show that the demographic shift to small and ageing households will boost energy consumption and carbon emissions, driven by the joint variations in time-use and consumption patterns. Furthermore, biased pictures of changing emissions will emerge if the time effect is disregarded. Future demographic changes will impact on energy use and hence carbon emissions through time-use and consumption pattern shifts. Using representative national time-use data, Yu et al. model scenarios for demographic transitions in China to explore shifts in energy demand as households change in size and age.

Published
2018

31. The Way Forward

Author

Kainuma, Mikiko, Mangalagiu, Dana, Asrar, Ghassem R., Jacob, Klaus, Pereira, Laura, Rocamora, Alexis, van Vuuren, D.P., Hurley, Fintan, Hedden, Steve, Lucas, P.L., King, P., Gomi, Kei, Lucas, Robyn, Environment, UN, and Environmental Sciences

Published
2019

37. Exploring influential factors on transition process of vehicle ownership in developing Asian city, A case study in Bogor city Indonesia

Author

Nugroho, Sudarmanto Budi, primary, Zusman, Eric, additional, Nakano, Ryoko, additional, Takahashi, Kentaro, additional, Kaswanto, Regan Leonardus, additional, Arifin, Hadi Susilo, additional, Arifin, Nurhayati, additional, Munandar, Aris, additional, Muchtar, Mochamad, additional, Gomi, Kei, additional, and Fujita, Tsuyoshi, additional

Published
2017
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48. CO 2 mitigation in Thailand’s low-carbon society: The potential of renewable energy.

Author

Winyuchakrit, Pornphimol, Limmeechokchai, Bundit, Matsuoka, Yuzuru, Gomi, Kei, Kainuma, Mikiko, Fujino, Junichi, and Suda, Maiko

Subjects
CARBON products manufacturing, LIGHT elements, CARBON foams, RENEWABLE energy sources, ENVIRONMENTAL physics
Abstract

This study aims at the development of Thailand’s low-carbon society in 2030 by using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Extended Snap Shot model for analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation through renewable energy (RE) utilization. This article presents the potentials of RE in power generation, industrial, and transport sectors in Thailand for GHG mitigation in 2030. The deployment of the RE sources is used in the analyses with potentials of mini-hydro of 390 MW, wind power of 960 MW, solar power of 600 MW, biomass energy of 4,400 MW, biogas power of 144 MW, waste to power of 192 MW, bioenergy of 4,634 ktoe, and RE for thermal of 8,088 ktoe in 2030. According to the proposed development, the amount of GHG emissions is estimated based on business-as-usual (BAU) without mitigation measures and countermeasures with GHG mitigation options of adopted RE technologies available during 2005–2030. Results show that annual GHG emissions in the base year of 2005 are 185,983 kt-CO2. In 2030 the GHG emissions in the BAU scenario will increase to 563,730 kt-CO2or 3.03 times higher than the base year 2005. The GHG emissions in the 2030 can be decreased dramatically to 443,043 kt-CO2, and accounted for 21.4% of GHG reduction by deployment of RE technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2016
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