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8 results on '"Gonzalez Aleman, Juan Jesus"'

1. Abrupt and persistent atmospheric circulation changes in the North Atlantic under La Ni\~na conditions

Author

García-Burgos, Marina, Gómara, Iñigo, Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén, González-Alemán, Juan Jesús, Zurita-Gotor, Pablo, and Ayarzagüena, Blanca

Subjects
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Abstract

Several recent studies have linked the exceptional North Atlantic and Eurasian atmospheric evolution during late February and March 2018 to the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) that took place a few weeks earlier. February 2018 was characterized by an abrupt transition from the positive to the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a subsequent persistence of the negative NAO for several weeks. This paper investigates the contribution of atmospheric and oceanic phenomena to both the 2018 event and a set of 19 identified analogues (including the former) for the period 1959-2022. Evidence is given that La Ni\~na conditions in the tropical Pacific and upstream North Atlantic cyclones play an important role as a trigger for these events. Ensuing two-way tropospheric-stratospheric coupling and eddy feedbacks provide extended-range persistence for negative NAO conditions. These results may help improve the prediction of such exceptional events.

Published
2024
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2. An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones

Author

Camargo, Suzana J., Murakami, Hiroyuki, Bloemendaal, Nadia, Chand, Savin S., Deshpande, Medha S., Dominguez-Sarmiento, Christian, González-Alemán, Juan Jesús, Knutson, Thomas R., Lin, I.-I., Moon, Il-Ju, Patricola, Christina M., Reed, Kevin A., Roberts, Malcolm J., Scoccimarro, Enrico, Tam, Chi Yung (Francis), Wallace, Elizabeth J., Wu, Liguang, Yamada, Yohei, Zhang, Wei, and Zhao, Haikun

Published
2023
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3. Supplementary material to "The crucial representation of deep convection for the cyclogenesis of medicane Ianos"

Author

Pantillon, Florian, primary, Davolio, Silvio, additional, Avolio, Elenio, additional, Calvo-Sancho, Carlos, additional, Carrió, Diego S., additional, Dafis, Stavros, additional, Flaounas, Emmanouil, additional, Gentile, Emanuele Silvio, additional, Gonzalez-Aleman, Juan Jesus, additional, Gray, Suzanne, additional, Miglietta, Mario Marcello, additional, Patlakas, Platon, additional, Pytharoulis, Ioannis, additional, Ricard, Didier, additional, Ricchi, Antonio, additional, and Sanchez, Claudio, additional

Published
2024
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5. A model intercomparison project to improve predictions of Mediterranean cyclones

Author

Pantillon, Florian, Davolio, Silvio, Avolio, Elenio, Carrió, Diego, Dafis, Stavros, Flaounas, Emmanouil, Gonzalez Aleman, Juan Jesus, Gray, Suzanne, Miglietta, Mario Marcello, Patlakas, Platon, Pytharoulis, Ioannis, Ricard, Didier, Ricchi, Antonio, Sanchez, Claudio, and Steeneveld, Gert-Jan

Abstract

Cyclones are essential elements of the climate system and water cycle but also major natural hazards in the densely populated Mediterranean basin. In the framework of the COST Action "European network for Mediterranean cyclones in weather and climate - MedCyclones", a model intercomparison project investigates the dynamics and predictability of case studies using modelling setups that are not yet available to operational forecasting systems. The intercomparison involves 10 sets of simulations based on 5 mesoscale models and multiple combinations of physical parameterizations. All sets include the same sensitivity simulations to initial and lateral boundary conditions and horizontal resolution. Here we focus on tropical-like cyclone (Medicane) Ianos that hit Greece in mid September 2020 and was poorly predicted by operational forecasts. Models systematically perform better when initialized from operational IFS analysis data compared to the widely used ERA5 reanalysis. Reducing horizontal grid spacing from 10 km (convection-parameterized) to 2 km (convection-permitting) further improves the cyclone track and intensity. This highlights the critical organization of convection during the early cyclogenesis for the phasing with an upper-level jet. Higher resolution enhances convective activity and favorably preconditions the jet, which controls the subsequent cyclone intensification and evolution.The 10 sets of simulations show robust agreement but also reveal model specificities such as the possible need for a convective parameterization even at 2 km horizontal grid spacing. While they require generalization to other cases of Mediterranean cyclones, the results shall provide guidance for the next generation of global convection-permitting models in weather and climate., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)

Published
2023

6. Assessing the coastal hazard of medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling.

Author

Ferrarin, Christian, Pantillon, Florian, Davolio, Silvio, Bajo, Marco, Miglietta, Mario Marcello, Avolio, Elenio, Carrio, Diego S., Pytharoulis, Ioannis, Sanchez, Claudio, Patlakas, Platon, Gonzalez-Aleman, Juan Jesus, and Flaounas, Emmanouil

Subjects
OCEAN waves, SEA level, FLOOD damage, LANDFALL, FLOOD risk, CYCLONES, DISEASE complications, FLAME spread
Abstract

On 18 September 2020, medicane Ianos hit the western coast of Greece resulting in flooding and severe damage at several coastal locations. In this work, we aim at evaluating its impact on sea conditions and the associated uncertainty through the use of an ensemble of numerical simulations. We applied a coupled wave-current model to an unstructured mesh representing the whole Mediterranean Sea, with a grid resolution increasing in the Ionian Sea along the cyclone path and the landfall area. To investigate the uncertainty of modelling sea levels and waves for such an intense event, we performed a multimodel ensemble of ocean simulations using several coarse (10 km) and high-resolution (2 km) meteorological forcings from different mesoscale models. The performance of the ocean and wave models was evaluated against observations retrieved from fixed monitoring stations and satellites. All model runs emphasized the occurrence of severe sea conditions along the cyclone path and at the coast. Due to the rugged and complex coastline, extreme sea levels are localised at specific coastal sites. However, numerical results show a large spread of the simulated sea conditions for both the sea level and waves highlighting the large uncertainty in simulating this kind of extreme event. The multi-model / multi-physics approach allows us to assess how the uncertainty propagates from meteorological to ocean variables and the subsequent coastal impact. The ensemble mean and standard deviation were combined to prove the hazard scenarios of the potential impact of such an extreme event to be used in a flood risk management plan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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7. Regional climate downscaling over Europe : perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community

Author

Jacob, Daniela, Teichmann, Claas, Sobolowski, Stefan, Katragkou, Eleni, Anders, Ivonne, Belda, Michal, Benestad, Rasmus, Boberg, Fredrik, Buonomo, Erasmo, Cardoso, Rita M., Casanueva, Ana, Christensen, Ole B., Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Coppola, Erika, De Cruz, Lesley, Davin, Edouard L., Dobler, Andreas, Dominguez, Marta, Fealy, Rowan, Fernandez, Jesus, Gaertner, Miguel Angel, Garcia-Diez, Markel, Giorgi, Filippo, Gobiet, Andreas, Goergen, Klaus, Jose Gomez-Navarro, Juan, Gonzalez Aleman, Juan Jesus, Gutierrez, Claudia, Gutierrez, Jose M., Guttler, Ivan, Haensler, Andreas, Halenka, Tomas, Jerez, Sonia, Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro, Jones, Richard G., Keuler, Klaus, Kjellström, Erik, Knist, Sebastian, Kotlarski, Sven, Maraun, Douglas, van Meijgaard, Erik, Mercogliano, Paola, Pedro Montavez, Juan, Navarra, Antonio, Nikulin, Grigory, de Noblet-Ducoudre, Nathalie, Panitz, Hans-Juergen, Pfeifer, Susanne, Piazza, Marie, Pichelli, Emanuela, Pietikaeinen, Joni-Pekka, Prein, Andreas F., Preuschmann, Swantje, Rechid, Diana, Rockel, Burkhardt, Romera, Raquel, Sanchez, Enrique, Sieck, Kevin, Soares, Pedro M. M., Somot, Samuel, Srnec, Lidija, Sorland, Silje Lund, Termonia, Piet, Truhetz, Heimo, Vautard, Robert, Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten, Wulfmeyer, Volker, Jacob, Daniela, Teichmann, Claas, Sobolowski, Stefan, Katragkou, Eleni, Anders, Ivonne, Belda, Michal, Benestad, Rasmus, Boberg, Fredrik, Buonomo, Erasmo, Cardoso, Rita M., Casanueva, Ana, Christensen, Ole B., Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Coppola, Erika, De Cruz, Lesley, Davin, Edouard L., Dobler, Andreas, Dominguez, Marta, Fealy, Rowan, Fernandez, Jesus, Gaertner, Miguel Angel, Garcia-Diez, Markel, Giorgi, Filippo, Gobiet, Andreas, Goergen, Klaus, Jose Gomez-Navarro, Juan, Gonzalez Aleman, Juan Jesus, Gutierrez, Claudia, Gutierrez, Jose M., Guttler, Ivan, Haensler, Andreas, Halenka, Tomas, Jerez, Sonia, Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro, Jones, Richard G., Keuler, Klaus, Kjellström, Erik, Knist, Sebastian, Kotlarski, Sven, Maraun, Douglas, van Meijgaard, Erik, Mercogliano, Paola, Pedro Montavez, Juan, Navarra, Antonio, Nikulin, Grigory, de Noblet-Ducoudre, Nathalie, Panitz, Hans-Juergen, Pfeifer, Susanne, Piazza, Marie, Pichelli, Emanuela, Pietikaeinen, Joni-Pekka, Prein, Andreas F., Preuschmann, Swantje, Rechid, Diana, Rockel, Burkhardt, Romera, Raquel, Sanchez, Enrique, Sieck, Kevin, Soares, Pedro M. M., Somot, Samuel, Srnec, Lidija, Sorland, Silje Lund, Termonia, Piet, Truhetz, Heimo, Vautard, Robert, Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten, and Wulfmeyer, Volker

Abstract

The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11 degrees EUR-11 and 0.44 degrees EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empirical-statistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe.

Published
2020
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8. Regional climate downscaling over Europe:perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community

Author

Jacob, Daniela, Teichmann, Claas, Sobolowski, Stefan, Katragkou, Eleni, Anders, Ivonne, Belda, Michal, Benestad, Rasmus, Boberg, Fredrik, Buonomo, Erasmo, Cardoso, Rita M., Casanueva, Ana, Christensen, Ole B., Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Coppola, Erika, De Cruz, Lesley, Davin, Edouard L., Dobler, Andreas, Dominguez, Marta, Fealy, Rowan, Fernandez, Jesus, Gaertner, Miguel Angel, Garcia-Diez, Markel, Giorgi, Filippo, Gobiet, Andreas, Goergen, Klaus, Jose Gomez-Navarro, Juan, Gonzalez Aleman, Juan Jesus, Gutierrez, Claudia, Gutierrez, Jose M., Guttler, Ivan, Haensler, Andreas, Halenka, Tomas, Jerez, Sonia, Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro, Jones, Richard G., Keuler, Klaus, Kjellstrom, Erik, Knist, Sebastian, Kotlarski, Sven, Maraun, Douglas, van Meijgaard, Erik, Mercogliano, Paola, Pedro Montavez, Juan, Navarra, Antonio, Nikulin, Grigory, de Noblet-Ducoudre, Nathalie, Panitz, Hans-Juergen, Pfeifer, Susanne, Piazza, Marie, Pichelli, Emanuela, Pietikaeinen, Joni-Pekka, Prein, Andreas F., Preuschmann, Swantje, Rechid, Diana, Rockel, Burkhardt, Romera, Raquel, Sanchez, Enrique, Sieck, Kevin, Soares, Pedro M. M., Somot, Samuel, Srnec, Lidija, Sorland, Silje Lund, Termonia, Piet, Truhetz, Heimo, Vautard, Robert, Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten, Wulfmeyer, Volker, Jacob, Daniela, Teichmann, Claas, Sobolowski, Stefan, Katragkou, Eleni, Anders, Ivonne, Belda, Michal, Benestad, Rasmus, Boberg, Fredrik, Buonomo, Erasmo, Cardoso, Rita M., Casanueva, Ana, Christensen, Ole B., Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Coppola, Erika, De Cruz, Lesley, Davin, Edouard L., Dobler, Andreas, Dominguez, Marta, Fealy, Rowan, Fernandez, Jesus, Gaertner, Miguel Angel, Garcia-Diez, Markel, Giorgi, Filippo, Gobiet, Andreas, Goergen, Klaus, Jose Gomez-Navarro, Juan, Gonzalez Aleman, Juan Jesus, Gutierrez, Claudia, Gutierrez, Jose M., Guttler, Ivan, Haensler, Andreas, Halenka, Tomas, Jerez, Sonia, Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro, Jones, Richard G., Keuler, Klaus, Kjellstrom, Erik, Knist, Sebastian, Kotlarski, Sven, Maraun, Douglas, van Meijgaard, Erik, Mercogliano, Paola, Pedro Montavez, Juan, Navarra, Antonio, Nikulin, Grigory, de Noblet-Ducoudre, Nathalie, Panitz, Hans-Juergen, Pfeifer, Susanne, Piazza, Marie, Pichelli, Emanuela, Pietikaeinen, Joni-Pekka, Prein, Andreas F., Preuschmann, Swantje, Rechid, Diana, Rockel, Burkhardt, Romera, Raquel, Sanchez, Enrique, Sieck, Kevin, Soares, Pedro M. M., Somot, Samuel, Srnec, Lidija, Sorland, Silje Lund, Termonia, Piet, Truhetz, Heimo, Vautard, Robert, Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten, and Wulfmeyer, Volker

Published
2020

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