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Technological breakthroughs and policy measures targeting energy efficiency and clean energy alone will not suffice to deliver Paris Agreement-compliant greenhouse gas emissions trajectories in the next decades. Strong cases have recently been made for acknowledging the decarbonisation potential lying in transforming linear economic models into closed-loop industrial ecosystems and in shifting lifestyle patterns towards this direction. This perspective highlights the research capacity needed to inform on the role and potential of the circular economy for climate change mitigation and to enhance the scientific capabilities to quantitatively explore their synergies and trade-offs. This begins with establishing conceptual and methodological bridges amongst the relevant and currently fragmented research communities, thereby allowing an interdisciplinary integration and assessment of circularity, decarbonisation, and sustainable development. Following similar calls for science in support of climate action, a transdisciplinary scientific agenda is needed to co-create the goals and scientific processes underpinning the transition pathways towards a circular, net-zero economy with representatives from policy, industry, and civil society. Here, it is argued that such integration of disciplines, methods, and communities can then lead to new and/or structurally enhanced quantitative systems models that better represent critical industrial value chains, consumption patterns, and mitigation technologies. This will be a crucial advancement towards assessing the material implications of, and the contribution of enhanced circularity performance to, mitigation pathways that are compatible with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and the transition to a circular economy. © 2021 The Authors

Although the transition to renewable energies will intensify the global competition for land, the potential impacts driven by solar energy remain unexplored. In this work, the potential solar land requirements and related land use change emissions are computed for the EU, India, Japan and South Korea. A novel method is developed within an integrated assessment model which links socioeconomic, energy, land and climate systems. At 25 80% penetration in the electricity mix of those regions by 2050, we find that solar energy may occupy 0.5 5% of total land. The resulting land cover changes, including indirect effects, will likely cause a net release of carbon ranging from 0 to 50 gCO2/kWh, depending on the region, scale of expansion, solar technology efficiency and land management practices in solar parks. Hence, a coordinated planning and regulation of new solar energy infrastructures should be enforced to avoid a significant increase in their life cycle emissions through terrestrial carbon losses. © 2021, The Author(s).

Europe’s capacity to explore the envisaged pathways that achieve its near- and long-term energy and climate objectives needs to be significantly enhanced. In this perspective, we discuss how this capacity is supported by energy and climate-economy models, and how international modelling teams are organised within structured communication channels and consortia as well as coordinate multi-model analyses to provide robust scientific evidence. Noting the lack of such a dedicated channel for the highly active yet currently fragmented European modelling landscape, we highlight the importance of transparency of modelling capabilities and processes, harmonisation of modelling parameters, disclosure of input and output datasets, interlinkages among models of different geographic granularity, and employment of models that transcend the highly harmonised core of tools used in model inter-comparisons. Finally, drawing from the COVID-19 pandemic, we discuss the need to expand the modelling comfort zone, by exploring extreme scenarios, disruptive innovations, and questions that transcend the energy and climate goals across the sustainability spectrum. A comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model framework offers a real example of “collective” science diplomacy, as an instrument to further support the ambitious goals of the EU Green Deal, in compliance with the EU claim to responsible research.

Low carbon transition pathways entail diverse uncertainties and risks in the underlying environmental, social, political, economic and technological factors. Inadequate information about such risks could affect the achievement of climate change mitigation targets negatively. This paper provides a novel experiment in which quantitative tools and stakeholder engagement are combined in order to identify the barriers between stakeholders and scientists concerning climate change mitigation aspects. Technological risks are captured by simulating different low carbon scenarios with limited technology options. Stakeholders are asked about their preferences on technology options regarding a low carbon future. After providing them with the simulation results, they are asked again in order to see whether those initial preferences had changed. Results prove the necessity for better communication between modelers and stakeholders. Closing the gaps between both communities is essential to remove barriers for more ambitious action against climate change. © 2020 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

La lucha contra el cambio climático requiere una descarbonización urgente de la economía global. En el País Vasco si bien se han reducido las emisiones en los últimos años de manera conjunta, las correspondientes al sector del transporte han aumentado, poniendo de manifiesto que las actuales políticas de reducción de emisiones son insuficientes para alcanzar los objetivos establecidos para este sector. El sector público juega un papel esencial en la lucha contra el cambio climático y debe ser ejemplo y referente para el conjunto de la economía. En este trabajo se contempla la electrificación como la herramienta más eficiente para descarbonizar las flotas de vehículos de las Administraciones públicas y contribuir de esta manera a la descarbonización del sector público. Para ello, se ha realizado un análisis coste-beneficio económico, energético y ambiental de la electrificación de la flota de autobuses urbanos de Vitoria de la empresa Tuvisa. El principal resultado del estudio es que la tecnología eléctrica es más competitiva que la convencional si se elimina la devolución parcial del impuesto de hidrocarburos para las Administraciones públicas y se internalizan los costes ambientales derivados de los combustibles fósiles. Para avanzar en el proceso de electrificación de las flotas de vehículos, se proponen tres medidas fundamentales: fomentar la compra conjunta de vehículos eléctricos para reducir los costes iniciales; internalizar los costes externos derivados de las actividades del transporte; y promover la compra pública verde. Las implicaciones y recomendaciones obtenidas para este caso particular son extrapolables también para otras ciudades que pretendan fomentar la electrificación del transporte público.