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The debate about whether sub-state actors have an interest in conducting a WMD attack using chemical or biological weapons is embedded within escalation theory, which holds that in order to maintain credibility terrorist groups must demonstrate a continued ability to conduct operations and inflict significant numbers of casualties on their enemy, maintaining a consistent, if not escalating, level of violence. This thesis uses E. coli in produce and foot and mouth disease in livestock case studies to evaluate U.S. Systems' ability to contain such an agroterror attack and to estimate likely results of such attacks. The analysis shows that neither a FMD attack on livestock nor an E. coli attack on produce is likely to cause sufficient casualties, economic disruption, and/or fear and panic to constitute escalation from recent conventional attacks for an established international terrorist organization, and therefore agroterror attacks are not likely to be particularly attractive for such organizations., http://archive.org/details/agriculturalterr109453171, US Air Force (USAF) author., Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Security Forces have transformed dramatically in the last twenty years. This transformation has been a continuous process, but may be broken into three distinct periods separated by key events: the 1996 attack on Khobar Towers, Saudi Arabia and the September 11, 2001 attack on the World Trade Centers and the Pentagon. Each distinct phase of Security Forces transformation differed with respect to mission, organization, deployments, and training, requiring Security Forces to change mission focus to meet the emerging challenges. Some view counterinsurgency (COIN) operations as community policing "on steroids," and therefore propose it as a logical next step for Security Forces. Security Forces have already demonstrated the ability to operate successfully outside an air base and build relations with the local populace. Security Forces have also demonstrated the ability to assume and execute new missions with great success. This thesis investigates the research question: "Can Security Forces assume the COIN mission; if so, what challenges must the force overcome and what changes must it enact to be effective?" In order to support a new mission, Security Forces must transform organizationally, solve the problem of increasing rates of deployment by resolving the inherent supply versus demand conflict, and refocus training on new mission sets to ensure deploying airmen are given the tools to be successful. The lessons learned from the challenges Security Forces faced and largely overcame during the transformations following the Khobar Towers and 9/11 attacks are significant. The Air Force must be mindful of these difficulties should it choose to have Security Forces adopt COIN operations as a new core competency., The original document contains color images.

The debate about whether sub-state actors have an interest in conducting a WMD attack using chemical or biological weapons is embedded within escalation theory, which holds that in order to maintain credibility terrorist groups must demonstrate a continued ability to conduct operations and inflict significant numbers of casualties on their enemy, maintaining a consistent, if not escalating, level of violence. This thesis uses E. coli in produce and foot and mouth disease in livestock case studies to evaluate U.S. systems' ability to contain such an agroterror attack and to estimate likely results of such attacks. The analysis shows that neither a FMD attack on livestock nor an E. coli attack on produce is likely to cause sufficient casualties, economic disruption, and/or fear and panic to constitute escalation from recent conventional attacks for an established international terrorist organization, and therefore agroterror attacks are not likely to be particularly attractive for such organizations., The original document contains color images.

The debate about whether sub-state actors have an interest in conducting a WMD attack using chemical or biological weapons is embedded within escalation theory, which holds that in order to maintain credibility terrorist groups must demonstrate a continued ability to conduct operations and inflict significant numbers of casualties on their enemy, maintaining a consistent, if not escalating, level of violence. This thesis uses E. coli in produce and foot and mouth disease in livestock case studies to evaluate U.S. Systems' ability to contain such an agroterror attack and to estimate likely results of such attacks. The analysis shows that neither a FMD attack on livestock nor an E. coli attack on produce is likely to cause sufficient casualties, economic disruption, and/or fear and panic to constitute escalation from recent conventional attacks for an established international terrorist organization, and therefore agroterror attacks are not likely to be particularly attractive for such organizations.