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Abstract—On February 6, 2023, two devastating earthquakes struck southern central Turkey, nine hours apart. The ground shaking from these earthquakes even swept over a significant part of northwestern Syria. In this paper, we consider the locations of the epicenters of these earthquakes against the prediction of the М ≥ 6.5 earthquake epicenters in Anatolia and adjacent regions, which was made in 1973 by I.M. Gelfand, V.I. Keilis-Borok and their colleagues using the Kora-3 pattern recognition algorithm based on morphostructural zoning data. We also present the results of early detection of the periods with an increased probability of the strongest earthquakes as determined by the medium-term prediction algorithm for the M8 earthquakes. It is found that the epicenters of the February 6, 2023 earthquakes occurred in a node identified in 1973 as potentially earthquake-prone for М ≥ 6.5, and both events occurred within the spatial and temporal coverage of the warning area diagnosed by the M8 algorithm in July 2021. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information about potential earthquake sources is a key issue for seismic hazard assessment. This study presents the application of a phenomenological approach based on pattern recognition to determine the possible locations of strong earthquakes in the Bulgarian region. The technique assumes the origin of strong earthquakes in morphostructural nodes formed around the intersections of morphostructural lineaments identified by morphostructural zoning. For the territory of the Bulgaria and neighbouring regions, 178 nodes were defined in this work. The CORA-3 pattern recognition algorithm identified 59 seismogenic nodes analysing a set of geophysical and geological node's characteristics. The identified seismogenic nodes are capable to generate earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than 6 and are located at the boundaries between the largest tectonic domains: Rila, Pirin, and Rhodope orogens; the Serbian-Macedonian massif; and in the Stara Planina belt. The set of characteristic features of seismogenic nodes indicates that the vicinity of potential nodes is characterized by a high contrast of neotectonic movements of the Earth's crust and the presence of deep heterogeneities in the Earth's crust. About 40% of the recognized nodes are not associated with any earthquakes, while the rest of the recognized seismogenic nodes are characterized by an area with a radius of 25 km where earthquakes are known to occur. Part of these "non active" seismogenic nodes are close to the historical events with magnitudes higher than 5.5 since the magnitude and location of historical events have large uncertainties. Another part of the seismogenic nodes may slightly change the location due to the uncertainties in morphostructural zonation. Other nodes may indicate unknown historical seismicity or paleoearthquakes. Defined M6+ seismogenic nodes can fill the potential gaps in the recorded seismicity on the territory of Bulgaria, thus to improve the seismic hazard assessment of the studied region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On February 6, 2023, two devastating earthquakes occurred in the southeast of Türkiye with an interval of 9 hours, which also affected the territory of Syria. The position of the epicenters of these earthquakes is discussed in connection with the forecast of M6.5+ earthquake locations for the territory of Anatolia and adjacent regions, obtained in 1974 by Gelfand et al., based on morphostructural zoning data employing the Cora-3 pattern recognition algorithm. It has been established that the epicenters of the earthquakes of February 6, 2023 were located in the node, which in 1974 was identified as capable of M6.5+. Since 1974, 36 M6.5+ events have been observed in the study region. The spatial distribution of these events is analyzed in relation to the seismogenic nodes recognized in 1974. It was found that the epicenters of 32 such events are located in the nodes recognized as dangerous for M6.5+ in 1974. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]