Search

Anthropogenic climate change has increased the frequency of drought, wildfire, and invasions of non-native species. Although high-severity fires linked to drought can inhibit recovery of native vegetation in forested ecosystems, it remains unclear how drought impacts the recovery of other plant communities following wildfire. We leveraged an existing rainfall manipulation experiment to test the hypothesis that reduced precipitation, fuel load, and fire severity convert plant community composition from native shrubs to invasive grasses in a Southern California coastal sage scrub system. We measured community composition before and after the 2020 Silverado wildfire in plots with three rainfall treatments. Drought reduced fuel load and vegetation cover, which reduced fire severity. Native shrubs had greater prefire cover in added water plots compared to reduced water plots. Native cover was lower and invasive cover was higher in postfire reduced water plots compared to postfire added and ambient water plots. Our results demonstrate the importance of fuel load on fire severity and plant community composition on an ecosystem scale. Management should focus on reducing fire frequency and removing invasive species to maintain the resilience of coastal sage scrub communities facing drought. In these communities, controlled burns are not recommended as they promote invasive plants.

Forest restoration through mechanical thinning, prescribed burning, and other management actions is vital to improving forest resilience to fire and drought across the Western United States, and yields benefits that can be monetized, including improvements in water supply and hydropower. Using California's Sierra Nevada as a study area, we assess the water and energy benefits of forest-restoration projects. By using a scalable top-down approach to track annual evapotranspiration following forest disturbance, coupled with hydropower simulations that include energy-price information, and marginal prices for water sales, we project the potential economic benefits of hydropower and water sales accruing to water-rights holders. The results found that water-related benefits from strategically planned fuels-reduction treatments now being carried out can be sufficient to offset costs of management actions aimed at forest restoration, especially in the face of climate change. Our findings justified investments in restoring forests and reinforce the central role of water and hydropower providers in partnerships for management of source-water watersheds. Results also highlighted the importance of accurate, scalable data and tools from the hydrology and water-resources community.

Wildfire modifies the short- and long-term exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, with impacts on ecosystem services such as carbon uptake. Dry western US forests historically experienced low-intensity, frequent fires, with patches across the landscape occupying different points in the fire-recovery trajectory. Contemporary perturbations, such as recent severe fires in California, could shift the historic stand-age distribution and impact the legacy of carbon uptake on the landscape. Here, we combine flux measurements of gross primary production (GPP) and chronosequence analysis using satellite remote sensing to investigate how the last century of fires in California impacted the dynamics of ecosystem carbon uptake on the fire-affected landscape. A GPP recovery trajectory curve of more than five thousand fires in forest ecosystems since 1919 indicated that fire reduced GPP by [Formula: see text] g C m[Formula: see text] y[Formula: see text]([Formula: see text]) in the first year after fire, with average recovery to prefire conditions after [Formula: see text] y. The largest fires in forested ecosystems reduced GPP by [Formula: see text] g C m[Formula: see text] y[Formula: see text] (n = 401) and took more than two decades to recover. Recent increases in fire severity and recovery time have led to nearly [Formula: see text] MMT CO[Formula: see text] (3-y rolling mean) in cumulative forgone carbon uptake due to the legacy of fires on the landscape, complicating the challenge of maintaining California's natural and working lands as a net carbon sink. Understanding these changes is paramount to weighing the costs and benefits associated with fuels management and ecosystem management for climate change mitigation.

Through their rooting profiles and water demands, plants affect the distribution of water in the soil profile. Simultaneously, soil water content controls plant development and interactions within and between plant communities. These plant-soil water feedbacks might vary across plant communities with different rooting depths and species composition. In semiarid environments, understanding these differences will be essential to predict how ecosystems will respond to drought, which may become more frequent and severe with climate change. In this study, we tested how plant-soil water feedbacks responded to drought in two contrasting ecosystem types—grassland and shrubland—in the coastal foothills of southern California. During years 5–8 of an ongoing precipitation manipulation experiment, we measured changes in plant communities and soil moisture up to 2 m depth. We observed different water use patterns in grassland and shrubland communities with distinct plant functional types and water use strategies. Drought treatment did not affect perennial, deep-rooted shrubs because they could access deep soil water pools. However, mid-rooted shrubs were sensitive to drought and experienced decreased productivity and die-off. As a result, water content actually increased with drought at soil depths from 50–150 cm. In grassland, biomass production by annual species, including annual grasses and forbs, declined with drought, resulting in lower water uptake from the surface soil layer. An opportunistic “live fast, die young“ life strategy allowed these species to recover quickly once water availability increased. Our results show how drought interacts with plant community composition to affect the soil water balance of semiarid ecosystems, information that could be integrated into global scale models.

Nature-based climate solutions are a vital component of many climate mitigation strategies, including California's, which aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. Most carbon offsets in California's cap-and-trade program come from improved forest management (IFM) projects. Since 2012, various landowners have set up IFM projects following the California Air Resources Board's IFM protocol. As many of these projects approach their 10th year, we now have the opportunity to assess their effectiveness, identify best practices, and suggest improvements toward future protocol revisions. In this study, we used remote sensing-based datasets to evaluate the carbon trends and harvest histories of 37 IFM projects in California. Despite some current limitations and biases, these datasets can be used to quantify carbon accumulation and harvest rates in offset project lands relative to nearby similar "control" lands before and after the projects began. Five lines of evidence suggest that the carbon accumulated in offset projects to date has generally not been additional to what might have otherwise occurred: (1) most forests in northwestern California have been accumulating carbon since at least the mid-1980s and continue to accumulate carbon, whether enrolled in offset projects or not; (2) harvest rates were high in large timber company project lands before IFM initiation, suggesting they are earning carbon credits for forests in recovery; (3) projects are often located on lands with higher densities of low-timber-value species; (4) carbon accumulation rates have not yet increased on lands that enroll as offset projects, relative to their pre-enrollment levels; and (5) harvest rates have not decreased on most project lands since offset project initiation. These patterns suggest that the current protocol should be improved to robustly measure and reward additionality. In general, our framework of geospatial analyses offers an important and independent means to evaluate the effectiveness of the carbon offsets program, especially as these data products continue improving and as offsets receive attention as a climate mitigation strategy.

Understanding potential response of forest carbon (C) and nutrient storage to warming is important for climate mitigation policies. Unfortunately, those responses are difficult to predict in seasonally dry forests, in part, because ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to both changes in temperature and precipitation. We investigated how warming might alter stocks of C, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in vegetation and the entire regolith (soil + weathered bedrock or “saprock”) using a space-for-time substitution along a bioclimatic gradient in the Sierra Nevada, California. The pine-oak and mixed-conifer forests between 1,160–2,015 m elevation have more optimal climates (not too dry or hot) for ecosystem productivity, soil weathering, and cycling of essential elements than the oak savannah (405 m) and subalpine forest (2,700 m). We found decreases in overstory vegetation nutrient stocks with decreasing elevation because of enhanced water limitation and greater occurrence of disturbances. Stocks of C, N, and P in the entire regolith peaked at the pine-oak and mixed-conifer forests across the bioclimatic gradient, driven by thicker regolith profiles and greater nutrient input rates. These observations suggest long-term warming will decrease ecosystem nutrient storage at the warmer, transitional pine-oak zone, but will increase nutrient storage at the colder, subalpine zone. Assuming steady-state conditions, we found the mean residence time of ecosystem C decreased with projected rising air temperatures and increased following a major drought event across the bioclimatic gradient. Our study emphasizes potentially elevation-dependent changes in nutrient storage and C persistence with warming in seasonally dry forests.

Wildland–urban interfaces (WUIs), the juxtaposition of highly and minimally developed lands, are an increasingly prominent feature on Earth. WUIs are hotspots of environmental and ecological change that are often priority areas for planning and management. A better understanding of WUI dynamics and their role in the coupling between cities and surrounding wildlands is needed to reduce the risk of environmental hazards, ensure the continued provisioning of ecosystem services, and conserve threatened biodiversity. To fill this need, we propose an expanded framework for WUIs that not only conceptualizes these interfaces as emergent and functional components of socioecological processes but also extends them vertically from the bedrock to the top of the vegetation and horizontally across heterogeneous landscapes. This framework encourages management that reconciles pervasive trade-offs between development and resulting multiple environmental impacts. Focusing on southern California as a case study, we use the framework to facilitate integration across disciplines and between scientists and managers.

California has experienced a rapid increase in burned area over the past several decades. Although fire behavior is known to be closely tied to ecosystem impacts, most analysis of changing fire regimes has focused solely on area burned. Here we present a standardized database of wildfire behavior, including daily fire rate-of-spread and fire radiative power for large, multiday wildfires in California during 2012-2018 using remotely-sensed active fire observations. We observe that human-ignited fires start at locations with lower tree cover and during periods with more extreme fire weather. These characteristics contribute to more explosive growth in the first few days following ignition for human-caused fires as compared to lightning-caused fires. The faster fire spread, in turn, yields a larger ecosystem impact, with tree mortality more than three times higher for fast-moving fires (>1 km day-1) than for slow moving fires (

Feedbacks between the intertwined water and carbon cycles in semi-arid mountain ecosystems can introduce large uncertainties into projections of carbon storage. In this study, we sought to understand the influence of key mechanisms on carbon balances, focusing on an ecosystem whose complex terrain and large interannual variability in precipitation adds to its vulnerability to warming. We applied a dynamic vegetation-ecosystem model (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) to simulate water-carbon interactions in the 104,512 km2 Mediterranean-climate ecosystems of California's Sierra Nevada for 1950–2099. Our 48 scenarios include a combination of carbon dioxide (CO2) increase, air temperature change, and varying plant rooting depths. We found that with warming (+2 and +5°C), water limitations on growth and enhanced soil respiration reduce carbon storage; however, CO2 fertilization and associated enhanced water-use efficiency offset this loss. Using the 4 km model resolution to capture steep mountain precipitation gradients, plus accounting for the several meters of actual root-accessible water storage in the region, were also important. With warming accompanied by CO2 fertilization our projections show that the Sierra Nevada sequestering at least 200 Tg (2 kg m−2) carbon, versus carbon loss with warming alone. The increase reflects coniferous forests growing at high elevations, and some increase in broadleaved forests at low-to-intermediate elevations. Importantly, uncertainty in fire disturbance could shift our finding from carbon sink to source. The improved mechanistic understanding of these feedbacks can advance modeling of carbon-water interactions in mountain-ecosystem under a warmer and potentially drier climate.

Changing wildfire regimes in the western US and other fire-prone regions pose considerable risks to human health and ecosystem function. However, our understanding of wildfire behavior is still limited by a lack of data products that systematically quantify fire spread, behavior and impacts. Here we develop a novel object-based system for tracking the progression of individual fires using 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire detections. At each half-daily time step, fire pixels are clustered according to their spatial proximity, and are either appended to an existing active fire object or are assigned to a new object. This automatic system allows us to update the attributes of each fire event, delineate the fire perimeter, and identify the active fire front shortly after satellite data acquisition. Using this system, we mapped the history of California fires during 2012-2020. Our approach and data stream may be useful for calibration and evaluation of fire spread models, estimation of near-real-time wildfire emissions, and as means for prescribing initial conditions in fire forecast models.

Burned area has increased across California, especially in the Sierra Nevada range. Recent fires there have had devasting social, economic, and ecosystem impacts. To understand the consequences of new extremes in fire weather, here we quantify the sensitivity of wildfire occurrence and burned area in the Sierra Nevada to daily meteorological variables during 2001–2020. We find that the likelihood of fire occurrence increases nonlinearly with daily temperature during summer, with a 1°C increase yielding a 19 to 22% increase in risk. Area burned has a similar, nonlinear sensitivity, with 1°C of warming yielding a 22 to 25% increase in risk. Solely considering changes in summer daily temperatures from climate model projections, we estimate that by the 2040s, fire number will increase by 51 ± 32%, and burned area will increase by 59 ± 33%. These trends highlight the threat posed to fire management by hotter and drier summers.

Abstract: Enhanced ecosystem carbon storage is a key component of many climate mitigation pathways. The State of California has set an ambitious goal of carbon neutrality by 2045, relying in part on enhanced carbon sequestration in natural and working lands. We used statistical modeling, including random forest and climate analog approaches, to explore the climate‐driven challenges and uncertainties associated with the goal of long‐term carbon sequestration in forests and shrublands. We found that seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation are strong controllers of the spatial distribution of aboveground live carbon. RCP8.5 projections of temperature and precipitation are estimated to drive decreases of 16.1% ± 7.5% in aboveground live carbon by the end of the century, with coastal areas of central and northern California and low/mid‐elevation mountain areas being most vulnerable. With RCP4.5 projections, declines are less severe, with 8.8% ± 5.3% carbon loss. In either scenario, increases in temperature systematically cause biomass declines, and the spread of projected precipitation across 32 CMIP5 models contributes to substantial uncertainty in the magnitude of that decline. Projected changes in the environmental niche for the 20 most biomass‐dominant tree species revealed widespread replacement of conifers by oak species in low elevation regions of central and northern California, with a corresponding decline in carbon storage depending on expected migration rates. The spatial patterns of vulnerability we identify may allow policymakers to assess where carbon sequestration in aboveground biomass is an appropriate part of a climate mitigation portfolio, and where future climate‐driven carbon losses may be a liability.

Plant community composition influences carbon, water, and energy fluxes at regional to global scales. Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) allow investigation of the effects of changing climate and disturbance regimes on vegetation composition and fluxes. Such investigation requires that the models can accurately resolve these feedbacks to simulate realistic composition. Vegetation in VDMs is composed of plant functional types (PFTs), which are specified according to plant traits. Defining PFTs is challenging due to large variability in trait observations within and between plant types and a lack of understanding of model sensitivity to these traits. Here we present an approach for developing PFT parameterizations that are connected to the underlying ecological processes determining forest composition in the mixed-conifer forest of the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. We constrain multiple relative trait values between PFTs, as opposed to randomly sampling within the range of observations. An ensemble of PFT parameterizations are then filtered based on emergent forest properties meeting observation-based ecological criteria under alternate disturbance scenarios. A small ensemble of alternate PFT parameterizations is identified that produces plausible forest composition and demonstrates variability in response to disturbance frequency and regional environmental variation. Retaining multiple PFT parameterizations allows us to quantify the uncertainty in forest responses due to variability in trait observations. Vegetation composition is a key emergent outcome from VDMs and our methodology provides a foundation for robust PFT parameterization across ecosystems.

Spatially resolved annual evapotranspiration was calculated across the 14 main river basins draining into California's Central Valley, USA, using a statistical model that combined satellite greenness, gridded precipitation, and flux-tower measurements. Annual evapotranspiration across the study area averaged 529 mm. Average basin-scale annual precipitation minus evapotranspiration was in good agreement with annual runoff, with deviations in wet and dry years suggesting withdrawal or recharge of subsurface water storage. Evapotranspiration peaked at lower elevations in the colder, northern basins, and at higher elevations in the southern high-Sierra basins, closely tracking the 12.3°C mean temperature isocline. Precipitation and evapotranspiration are closely balanced across much of the study region, and small shifts in either will cause disproportionate changes in water storage and runoff. The majority of runoff was generated below the rain-snow transition in northern basins, and originated in snow-dominated elevations in the southern basins. Climate warming that increases growing season length will increase evapotranspiration and reduce runoff across all elevations in the north, but only at higher elevations in the south. Feedback mechanisms in these steep mountain basins, plus over-year subsurface storage, with their steep precipitation and temperature gradients, provide important buffering of the water balance to change. Leave-one-out cross validation revealed that the statistical model for annual evapotranspiration is sensitive to the number and distribution of measurement sites, implying that additional strategically located flux towers would improve evapotranspiration predictions. Leave-one-out with individual years was less sensitive, implying that longer records are less important. This statistical top-down modeling of evapotranspiration provides an important complement to constraining water-balance measurements with gridded precipitation and unimpaired runoff, with applications such as quantifying water balance following forest die-off, management or wildfire.

Vegetation tolerance to drought depends on an array of site-specific environmental and plant physiological factors. This tolerance is poorly understood for many forest types despite its importance for predicting and managing vegetation stress. We analyzed the relationships between precipitation variability and forest die-off in California's Sierra Nevada and introduce a new measure of drought tolerance that emphasizes plant access to subsurface moisture buffers. We applied this metric to California's severe 2012-2015 drought, and show that it predicted the patterns of tree mortality. We then examined future climate scenarios, and found that the probability of droughts that lead to widespread die-off increases threefold by the end of the 21st century. Our analysis shows that tree mortality in the Sierra Nevada will likely accelerate in the coming decades and that forests in the Central and Northern Sierra Nevada that largely escaped mortality in 2012-2015 are vulnerable to die-off.

Globally, soils store two to three times as much carbon as currently resides in the atmosphere, and it is critical to understand how soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and uptake will respond to ongoing climate change. In particular, the soil-to-atmosphere CO2 flux, commonly though imprecisely termed soil respiration (RS ), is one of the largest carbon fluxes in the Earth system. An increasing number of high-frequency RS measurements (typically, from an automated system with hourly sampling) have been made over the last two decades; an increasing number of methane measurements are being made with such systems as well. Such high frequency data are an invaluable resource for understanding GHG fluxes, but lack a central database or repository. Here we describe the lightweight, open-source COSORE (COntinuous SOil REspiration) database and software, that focuses on automated, continuous and long-term GHG flux datasets, and is intended to serve as a community resource for earth sciences, climate change syntheses and model evaluation. Contributed datasets are mapped to a single, consistent standard, with metadata on contributors, geographic location, measurement conditions and ancillary data. The design emphasizes the importance of reproducibility, scientific transparency and open access to data. While being oriented towards continuously measured RS , the database design accommodates other soil-atmosphere measurements (e.g. ecosystem respiration, chamber-measured net ecosystem exchange, methane fluxes) as well as experimental treatments (heterotrophic only, etc.). We give brief examples of the types of analyses possible using this new community resource and describe its accompanying R software package.

We used Landsat-based measures of annual evapotranspiration (ET) to explore the effects of wildfires on vegetation water use across California’s Sierra Nevada. Wildfires decreased ET relative to unburned and pre-fire controls, in many areas this reduction persisted for at least 15 years. The ET reduction averaged 265 mm yr-1 (36% of pre-fire ET) during the first year after fire, and 169 mm yr-1 (23%) over the first 15 years after fire. The ET reduction varied with burn severity, pre-fire canopy density, and hydro-topographic environment. In areas burned at low severity the ET reduction in the first year after fire averaged 224 mm yr-1 (31% of pre-fire ET) whereas high severity were reduced a 362 mm yr-1 (50% ) for the first year. Forest stands that were denser pre-fire had a larger ET reduction across all burn severities. Evapotranspiration reduction following moderate-to-high-severity burns was greatest at 900-1300 m asl elevation. The combination of pre-fire canopy density and burn severity explained 70% of the spatial variation in first-year ET reduction. Forest restoration and a reintroduction of low-intensity fire have been proposed as management practices to mitigate fire risk and improve ecosystem health. Our findings illustrate that restoration and fire reintroduction may reduce the current total ET by up to 9%, with potential benefits for downstream water supply in a globally important food-producing region.

Climate and regional air quality models predict that Southern California will experience longer and more severe droughts, and possibly wetter, more intense storms and changing nitrogen (N) deposition. We investigated how the three major soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes respond to 4–6 years of exposure to a full-factorial experiment of reduced and augmented precipitation crossed with increased N in a semi-arid grassland in Irvine, CA, USA. The mean emission fluxes across all treatments were 249.8 mg CO2 m−2 h−1, -16.41 μg CH4 m−2 h−1, and 2.24 μg N2O m−2 h−1. Added N plots released 3.5 times more N2O than ambient N plots, and N treatment and soil moisture interacted, such that volumetric soil moisture in added N plots correlated positively with N2O release. Soil moisture, which was higher in the added water plots, correlated positively with respiration. CH4 consumption increased with soil moisture in the drought treatment, an opposite trend to that observed in most other studies.Our data suggest that CH4 consumption, N2O production, and soil respiration will decline if Southern California grasslands experience more frequent and extreme droughts. However, when drought is followed by high rainfall, the additional moisture will likely increase CH4 consumption and N2O release in periodic pulses. Overall, climatic shifts in this ecosystem may lead to a decrease in overall soil GHG emissions to the atmosphere. However, increased N deposition to Southern California will likely lead to increased N2O release and a shift in the dominant N loss pathway toward gaseous release of N. If N deposition continues to increase along with severity and duration of drought, our data predict a decrease in global warming potential (GWP) of 17.2% from this ecosystem.

Analysis of measured evapotranspiration shows that subsurface plant-accessible water storage (PAWS) can sustain evapotranspiration through multiyear dry periods. Measurements at 25 flux tower sites in the semiarid western United States, distributed across five land cover types, show both resistance and vulnerability to multiyear dry periods. Average (±standard deviation) evapotranspiration ranged from 660 ± 230 mm yr −1 (October–September) in evergreen needleleaf forests to 310 ± 200 mm yr −1 in grasslands and shrublands. More than 52% of the annual evapotranspiration in Mediterranean climates is supported on average by seasonal drawdown of subsurface PAWS, versus 29% in monsoon-influenced climates. Snowmelt replenishes dry-season PAWS by as much as 20% at sites with significant seasonal snow accumulation but was insignificant at most sites. Evapotranspiration exceeded precipitation in more than half of the observation years at sites below 35°N. Annual evapotranspiration at non-energy-limited sites increased with precipitation, reaching a mean wet-year evapotranspiration of 833 mm for evergreen needleleaf forests, 861 mm for mixed forests, 558 mm for woody savannas, 367 mm for grasslands, and 254 mm for shrublands. Thirteen sites experienced at least one multiyear dry period, when mean precipitation was more than one standard deviation below the historical mean. All vegetation types except evergreen needleleaf forests responded to multiyear dry periods by lowering evapotranspiration and/or significant year-over-year depletion of subsurface PAWS. Sites maintained wet-year evapotranspiration rates for 8–33 months before attenuation, with a corresponding net PAWS drawdown of as much as 334 mm. Net drawdown at many sites continued until the dry period ended, resulting in an overall cumulative withdrawal of as much as 558 mm. Evergreen needleleaf forests maintained high evapotranspiration during multiyear dry periods with no apparent PAWS drawdown; these forests currently avoid drought but may prove vulnerable to longer and warmer dry periods that reduce snowpack storage and accelerate evapotranspiration.

Growing season length (GSL) is a key unifying concept in ecology that can be estimated from eddy covariance-derived estimates of net ecosystem production (NEP). Previous studies disagree on how increasing GSLs may affect NEP in evergreen coniferous forests, potentially due to the variety of methods used to quantify GSL from NEP. We calculated GSL and GSL-NEP regressions at eleven evergreen conifer sites across a broad climatic gradient in western North America using three common approaches: (1) variable length (3-7 days) regressions of day of year versus NEP, (2) a smoothed threshold approach, and (3) the carbon uptake period, followed by a new approach of a method-averaged ensemble. The GSL and the GSL-NEP relationship differed among methods, resulting in linear relationships with variable sign, slope, and statistical significance. For all combinations of sites and methods, the GSL explained between 6% and 82% of NEP with p-values ranging from 0.45 to

We investigated the potential magnitude and duration of forest evapotranspiration (ET) decreases resulting from forest-thinning treatments and wildfire in west-slope watersheds of the Sierra Nevada range in California, USA, using a robust empirical relation between Landsat-derived mean-annual normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and ET measured at flux towers. Among forest treatments, the minimum observed NDVI change required to produce a significant departure from control plots with NDVI of about 0.70 was −0.09 units, corresponding to a basal-area reduction of 29.1 m2/ha (45% reduction) and equivalent to an estimated ET reduction of 153 mm/year (21% change; approximate mean annual precipitation = 1,000 mm). Intensive thinning in highly productive forests that approached prefire-exclusion densities reduced basal area by 40–50%, generating estimated ET reductions of 153–218 mm/year (21–27% change) over 5 years following treatment. Low-intensity underburn treatments resulted in no significant change in ET. Examining the cumulative impact of wildfires on ET between 1990 and 2008, we found that the lower and wetter American River basin (5,310 km2) generated more than twice the ET reduction per unit area than those in the higher and drier Kings River basin (4,790 km2), corresponding to greater water and energy limitations in the latter and greater fire severity in the former. A rough extrapolation of these results to the entire American River watershed suggests that ET reductions due to forest thinning by wildfire could approach 10% of full natural flows for dry years and 5% over all years.

Enhanced understanding of subsurface water storage will improve prediction of future impacts of climate change, including drought, forest mortality, wildland fire, and strained water security. Previous research has examined the importance of plant-accessible water in soil, but in upland landscapes within Mediterranean climates, soil often accounts for only a fraction of subsurface water storage. We draw insights from previous research and a case study of the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory to define attributes of subsurface storage; review observed patterns in their distribu-tion; highlight nested methods for estimating them across scales; and showcase the fundamental processes controlling their formation. We review observations that highlight how forest ecosystems subsist on lasting plant-accessible stores of subsurface water during the summer dry period and during multiyear droughts. The data suggest that trees in these forest ecosystems are rooted deeply in the weathered, highly porous saprolite or saprock, which reaches up to 10–20 m beneath the surface. This review confirms that the system harbors large volumes of subsurface water and shows that they are vital to supporting the ecosystem through the summer dry season and extended droughts. This research enhances understanding of deep subsurface water storage across landscapes and identifies key remaining challenges in predicting and managing response to climate and land use change in mountain ecosystems of the Sierra Nevada and in other Mediterranean climates worldwide. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Hydrological Processes Science of Water > Water Extremes Water and Life > Nature of Freshwater Ecosystems.

Mountain runoff ultimately reflects the difference between precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET), as modulated by biogeophysical mechanisms that intensify or alleviate drought impacts. These modulating mechanisms are seldom measured and not fully understood. The impact of the warm 2012-15 California drought on the heavily instrumented Kings River basin provides an extraordinary opportunity to enumerate four mechanisms that controlled the impact of drought on mountain hydrology. Two mechanisms intensified the impact: (i) evaporative processes have first access to local precipitation, which decreased the fractional allocation of P to runoff in 2012-15 and reduced P-ET by 30% relative to previous years, and (ii) 2012-15 was 1 °C warmer than the previous decade, which increased ET relative to previous years and reduced P-ET by 5%. The other two mechanisms alleviated the impact: (iii) spatial heterogeneity and the continuing supply of runoff from higher elevations increased 2012-15 P-ET by 10% relative to that expected for a homogenous basin, and iv) drought-associated dieback and wildfire thinned the forest and decreased ET, which increased 2016 P-ET by 15%. These mechanisms are all important and may offset each other; analyses that neglect one or more will over or underestimate the impact of drought and warming on mountain runoff.

Many regions on Earth are expected to become drier with climate change, which may impact nitrogen (N) cycling rates and availability. We used a meta-analytical approach on the results of field experiments that reduced precipitation and measured N supply (i.e., indices of N mineralization), soil microbial biomass, inorganic N pools (ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3−)), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. We hypothesized that N supply and N2O emissions would be relatively insensitive to precipitation reduction and that reducing precipitation would increase extractable NH4+ and NO3− concentrations because microbial processes continue, whereas plant N uptake diminishes with drought. In support of this hypothesis, extractable NH4+ increased by 25% overall with precipitation reduction; NH4+ also increased significantly with increasing magnitude of precipitation reduction. In contrast, N supply and extractable NO3− did not change and N2O emissions decreased with reduced precipitation. Across studies microbial biomass appeared unchanged, yet from the diversity of studies, it was clear that proportionally smaller precipitation reductions increased microbial biomass, whereas larger proportional reductions in rainfall reduced microbial biomass; there was a positive intercept (P = 0.005) and a significant negative slope (P = 0.0002) for the regression of microbial biomass versus % precipitation reduction (LnR = −0.009 × (% precipitation reduction) + 0.4021). Our analyses imply that relative to other N variables, N supply is less sensitive to reduced precipitation, whereas processes producing N2O decline. Drought intensity and duration, through sustained N supply, may control how much N becomes vulnerable to loss via hydrologic and gaseous pathways upon rewetting dry soils.

The frequency and intensity of drought are expected to increase in the future, yet the consequences for soil microbial communities and functioning remain unclear. Processes such as decomposition could be maintained if microbial communities become more drought tolerant. However, increased drought tolerance might involve physiological costs with uncertain consequences for ecosystem processes. Here we used the trait-based model DEMENT to quantify the sensitivity of microbial traits, community dynamics, and litter decomposition to variation in drought tolerance costs. These costs were imposed as a physiological tradeoff between drought tolerance and carbon use efficiency. We ran simulations across a range of drought tolerance costs and with climate forcing from ambient and drought treatments in a Southern California grassland that experiences seasonal summer drought. As expected, zero or low costs of tolerance allowed drought-tolerant taxa to increase in abundance under ambient simulation conditions. More drought tolerant communities had greater microbial biomass but lower extracellular enzyme investment due to biological feedbacks involving enzyme production. These two responses counteracted one another, leaving decomposition unchanged relative to virtual microbial communities with no drought tolerance. Simulated decomposition rates were one-third lower under drought treatment, but there were no differences in microbial drought tolerance compared to simulations forced with ambient climate. This model result suggests that seasonal drought is a more important environmental filter than reduced precipitation during the wet season in our Mediterranean climate system. Overall, our simulations indicate that microbial community responses to drought are not likely to increase decomposition rates, even if CUE costs are low. Using the simulation approach described here, the DEMENT model could be modified to incorporate additional mechanisms of microbial drought tolerance and their associated physiological costs as new empirical data become available.

Terrestrial ecosystem models assume that microbial communities respond instantaneously, or are immediately resilient, to environmental change. Here we tested this assumption by quantifying the resilience of a leaf litter community to changes in precipitation or nitrogen availability. By manipulating composition within a global change experiment, we decoupled the legacies of abiotic parameters versus that of the microbial community itself. After one rainy season, more variation in fungal composition could be explained by the original microbial inoculum than the litterbag environment (18% versus 5.5% of total variation). This compositional legacy persisted for 3 years, when 6% of the variability in fungal composition was still explained by the microbial origin. In contrast, bacterial composition was generally more resilient than fungal composition. Microbial functioning (measured as decomposition rate) was not immediately resilient to the global change manipulations; decomposition depended on both the contemporary environment and rainfall the year prior. Finally, using metagenomic sequencing, we showed that changes in precipitation, but not nitrogen availability, altered the potential for bacterial carbohydrate degradation, suggesting why the functional consequences of the two experiments may have differed. Predictions of how terrestrial ecosystem processes respond to environmental change may thus be improved by considering the legacies of microbial communities.

Soil microbial communities and pools of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) play an important role in ecosystem responses to precipitation variability and N deposition. In southern California, ecosystem vulnerability to these environmental change drivers may differ for grassland versus shrubland vegetation types. We hypothesized that (1) these vegetation types would differ in their responses to precipitation and N manipulation; (2) reduced precipitation (“drought treatment”) would have a negative effect on soil microbial abundance and alter microbial community composition, (3) these changes would be associated with reductions in soil C and N pools, (4) N addition would increase microbial abundance as well as soil C and N pools, and (5) combined drought and N deposition would have offsetting effects on soil properties. We tested these hypotheses at the Loma Ridge Global Change Experiment in southern California. Across vegetation types, we found that microbial biomass based on phospholipid fatty acids declined with drought and N addition. Microbial composition differed more strongly by vegetation type than with environmental change treatments. Added precipitation had little effect on microbial biomass but reduced labile C and N pools; these reductions were mitigated by N addition. Drought reduced labile forms of soil C and N, whereas N addition increased labile soil C pools and all soil N pools. Negative effects of drought and N addition were additive for microbial biomass, which could inhibit soil C cycling if both of these environmental changes occur together. Drought interacted with N addition to significantly increase the most labile N pool under the drought+N treatment, which suggests a build-up of available N under these conditions. These results imply that multiple environmental changes may combine non-additively to affect below-ground microorganisms and soil C and N pools, which may have important consequences for ecosystem services such as productivity, biodiversity, and soil quality in Mediterranean climate regimes of North America.

Global modeling efforts indicate semiarid regions dominate the increasing trend and interannual variation of net CO2 exchange with the atmosphere, mainly driven by water availability. Many semiarid regions are expected to undergo climatic drying, but the impacts on net CO2 exchange are poorly understood due to limited semiarid flux observations. Here we evaluated 121 site-years of annual eddy covariance measurements of net and gross CO2 exchange (photosynthesis and respiration), precipitation, and evapotranspiration (ET) in 21 semiarid North American ecosystems with an observed range of 100 - 1000 mm in annual precipitation and records of 4-9 years each. In addition to evaluating spatial relationships among CO2 and water fluxes across sites, we separately quantified site-level temporal relationships, representing sensitivity to interannual variation. Across the climatic and ecological gradient, photosynthesis showed a saturating spatial relationship to precipitation, whereas the photosynthesis-ET relationship was linear, suggesting ET was a better proxy for water available to drive CO2 exchanges after hydrologic losses. Both photosynthesis and respiration showed similar site-level sensitivity to interannual changes in ET among the 21 ecosystems. Furthermore, these temporal relationships were not different from the spatial relationships of long-term mean CO2 exchanges with climatic ET. Consequently, a hypothetical 100-mm change in ET, whether short term or long term, was predicted to alter net ecosystem production (NEP) by 64 gCm(-2) yr(-1). Most of the unexplained NEP variability was related to persistent, site-specific function, suggesting prioritization of research on slow-changing controls. Common temporal and spatial sensitivity to water availability increases our confidence that site-level responses to interannual weather can be extrapolated for prediction of CO2 exchanges over decadal and longer timescales relevant to societal response to climate change.

The mid-elevation forest of California's Sierra Nevada poses a bioclimatic paradox. Mid-elevation trees experience a montane Mediterranean climate, with near-freezing winter days and rain-free summers. The asynchrony between warmth and water input suggests low primary production, limited by photosynthetic dormancy in winter cold, and again in summer and early autumn with drought, yet this forest is characterized by tall trees and high biomass. We used eddy covariance in a mid-elevation Sierra stand to understand how winter cold and summer drought limit canopy photosynthesis and production. The trees exhibited canopy photosynthesis year-round. Trees avoided winter dormancy, and daytime CO2uptake continued despite a deep snowpack and near-freezing temperatures. Photosynthesis on sunny days continued at half of maximum rates when air temperature was 0 °C. Likewise, the vegetation avoided summer drought dormancy, and high rates of daytime CO2uptake and transpiration continued despite a 5-month period with only negligible water input. We attribute this drought avoidance to deep rooting and availability of deep soil water. Year-round photosynthesis helps explain the large biomass observed in the Sierra Nevada, and implies adaptive strategies that may contribute to the resiliency or vulnerability of Sierran vegetation to climate change.

Spatially explicit predictions of fuel moisture content are crucial for quantifying fire danger indices and as inputs to fire behaviour models. Remotely sensed predictions of fuel moisture have typically focused on live fuels; but regional estimates of dead fuel moisture have been less common. Here we develop and test the spatial application of a recently developed dead fuel moisture model, which is based on the exponential decline of fine fuel moisture with increasing vapour pressure deficit (D). We first compare the performance of two existing approaches to predict D from satellite observations. We then use remotely sensed D, as well as D estimated from gridded daily weather observations, to predict dead fuel moisture. We calibrate and test the model at a woodland site in South East Australia, and then test the model at a range of sites in South East Australia and Southern California that vary in vegetation type, mean annual precipitation (129-1404mmyear-1) and leaf area index (0.1-5.7). We found that D modelled from remotely sensed land surface temperature performed slightly better than a model which also included total precipitable water (MAE

Effects of hydraulic redistribution (HR) on hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological processes have been demonstrated in the field, but the current generation of standard earth system models does not include a representation of HR. Though recent studies have examined the effect of incorporating HR into land surface models, few (if any) have done cross-site comparisons for contrasting climate regimes and multiple vegetation types via the integration of measurement and modeling. Here, we incorporated the HR scheme of Ryel et al. (2002) into the NCAR Community Land Model Version 4.5 (CLM4.5), and examined the ability of the resulting hybrid model to capture the magnitude of HR flux and/or soil moisture dynamics from which HR can be directly inferred, to assess the impact of HR on land surface water and energy budgets, and to explore how the impact may depend on climate regimes and vegetation conditions. Eight AmeriFlux sites with contrasting climate regimes and multiple vegetation types were studied, including the Wind River Crane site in Washington State, the Santa Rita Mesquite savanna site in southern Arizona, and six sites along the Southern California Climate Gradient. HR flux, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture were properly simulated in the present study, even in the face of various uncertainties. Our cross-ecosystem comparison showed that the timing, magnitude, and direction (upward or downward) of HR vary across ecosystems, and incorporation of HR into CLM4.5 improved the modelmeasurement matches of evapotranspiration, Bowen ratio, and soil moisture particularly during dry seasons. Our results also reveal that HR has important hydrological impact in ecosystems that have a pronounced dry season but are not overall so dry that sparse vegetation and very low soil moisture limit HR.

The high diversity of microbial communities hampers predictions about their responses to global change. Here we investigate the potential for using a phylogenetic, trait-based framework to capture the response of bacteria and fungi to global change manipulations. Replicated grassland plots were subjected to 3+ years of drought and nitrogen fertilization. The responses of leaf litter bacteria and fungi to these simulated changes were significantly phylogenetically conserved. Proportional changes in abundance were highly correlated among related organisms, such that relatives with approximately 5% ribosomal DNA genetic distance showed similar responses to the treatments. A microbe's change in relative abundance was significantly correlated between the treatments, suggesting a compromise between numerical abundance in undisturbed environments and resistance to change in general, independent of disturbance type. Lineages in which at least 90% of the microbes shared the same response were circumscribed at a modest phylogenetic depth (τD 0.014-0.021), but significantly larger than randomized simulations predict. In several clades, phylogenetic depth of trait consensus was higher. Fungal response to drought was more conserved than was response to nitrogen fertilization, whereas bacteria responded equally to both treatments. Finally, we show that a bacterium's response to the manipulations is correlated with its potential functional traits (measured here as the number of glycoside hydrolase genes encoding the capacity to degrade different types of carbohydrates). Together, these results suggest that a phylogenetic, trait-based framework may be useful for predicting shifts in microbial composition and functioning in the face of global change.

Seasonally dry, water-limited regions are often co-dominated by distinct herbaceous and woody plant communities with contrasting ecohydrological properties. We investigated the shape of the above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) response to annual precipitation (Pa) for adjacent grassland and shrubland ecosystems in Southern California, with the goal of understanding the role of these ecohydrological properties on ecosystem function. Our synthesis of observations and modelling demonstrates grassland and shrubland exhibit distinct ANPP-Pa responses that correspond with characteristics of the long-term Pa distribution and mean water balance fluxes. For annual grassland, no ANPP occurs below a 'precipitation compensation point,' where bare soil evaporation dominates the water balance, and ANPP saturates above the Pa where deep percolation and runoff contribute to the modelled water balance. For shrubs, ANPP increases at a lower and relatively constant rate across the Pa gradient, while deep percolation and runoff account for a smaller fraction of the modelled water balance. We identify precipitation seasonality, root depth, and water stress sensitivity as the main ecosystem properties controlling these responses. Observed ANPP-Pa responses correspond to notably different patterns of rain-use efficiency (RUE). Grass RUE exceeds shrub RUE over a wide range of typical Pa values, whereas grasses and shrubs achieve a similar RUE in particularly dry or wet years. Inter-annual precipitation variability, and the concomitant effect on ANPP, plays a critical role in maintaining the balance of grass and shrub cover and ecosystem-scale productivity across this landscape.

Bacteria and fungi drive the decomposition of dead plant biomass (litter), an important step in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Here we investigate the sensitivity of litter microbial communities to simulated global change (drought and nitrogen addition) in a California annual grassland. Using 16S and 28S rDNA amplicon pyrosequencing, we quantify the response of the bacterial and fungal communities to the treatments and compare these results to background, temporal (seasonal and interannual) variability of the communities. We found that the drought and nitrogen treatments both had significant effects on microbial community composition, explaining 2-6% of total compositional variation. However, microbial composition was even more strongly influenced by seasonal and annual variation (explaining 14-39%). The response of microbial composition to drought varied by season, while the effect of the nitrogen addition treatment was constant through time. These compositional responses were similar in magnitude to those seen in microbial enzyme activities and the surrounding plant community, but did not correspond to a consistent effect on leaf litter decomposition rate. Overall, these patterns indicate that, in this ecosystem, temporal variability in the composition of leaf litter microorganisms largely surpasses that expected in a short-term global change experiment. Thus, as for plant communities, future microbial communities will likely be determined by the interplay between rapid, local background variability and slower, global changes.

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. Hyperspectral remote sensing provides unique and abundant spectral information for quantification of the land surface shortwave radiation budget, which can be used to calibrate climate models and to estimate surface energy budget for monitoring agriculture and urban environment. However, only single broadband or multispectral data have been used in previous studies. In the present study, two methods are proposed to estimate the instantaneous land surface net shortwave radiation (NSR) with high spatial resolutions using hyperspectral remote sensing observations from the Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data. Method A calculates the NSR based on separate estimation of downward radiation and surface broadband albedo, which requires ancillary information for aerosol optical depth; and Method B directly estimates the NSR from the observed radiance. Results based on radiative transfer simulations showed that the use of hyperspectral data can significantly improve NSR estimation compared with the multispectral data method. Atmospheric water vapor correction was applied to adjust the surface radiation estimation. Validation of AVIRIS NSR estimates against ground measurements from two flux networks for the period of 2006-2014 showed that the two methods were similar and had consistent accuracy in the all-sky instantaneous NSR estimation with root-mean-square-errors (RMSEs) of approximately 28-56W/m2. The pixel-based water vapor content estimation from AVIRIS data provided slightly different results than those obtained using coarse resolution remote sensing data. A simplified topographic correction algorithm was found to be able to improve the results generated from Method A; however, the degree of improvement provided by Method B was unclear, possibly because of the lack of consideration of horizontal atmospheric scattering effects from adjacent pixels. In general, hyperspectral remote sensing data have been shown to improve the NSR estimation accuracies compared with results obtained in previous studies. Additional efforts are needed to refine the NSR estimation for application to future satellite hyperspectral data.

The area burned by Southern California wildfires has increased in recent decades, with implications for human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem management. Meteorology and fuel structure are universally recognized controllers of wildfire, but their relative importance, and hence the efficacy of abatement and suppression efforts, remains controversial. Southern California's wildfires can be partitioned by meteorology: fires typically occur either during Santa Ana winds (SA fires) in October through April, or warm and dry periods in June through September (non-SA fires). Previous work has not quantitatively distinguished between these fire regimes when assessing economic impacts or climate change influence. Here we separate five decades of fire perimeters into those coinciding with and without SA winds. The two fire types contributed almost equally to burned area, yet SA fires were responsible for 80% of cumulative 1990-2009 economic losses ($3.1 Billion). The damage disparity was driven by fire characteristics: SA fires spread three times faster, occurred closer to urban areas, and burned into areas with greater housing values. Non-SA fires were comparatively more sensitive to age-dependent fuels, often occurred in higher elevation forests, lasted for extended periods, and accounted for 70% of total suppression costs. An improved distinction of fire type has implications for future projections and management. The area burned in non-SA fires is projected to increase 77% (±43%) by the mid-21st century with warmer and drier summers, and the SA area burned is projected to increase 64% (±76%), underscoring the need to evaluate the allocation and effectiveness of suppression investments.

The moisture content of vegetation and litter (fuel moisture) is an important determinant of fire risk, and predictions of dead fine fuel moisture content (fuel with a diameter