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In this paper, distinct patterns of boreal winter convection anomalies over the tropical Pacific and associated wave trains in the extratropics are addressed. The first leading mode (EOF1) of convection anomalies as measured by outgoing longwave radiation demonstrates an east-west oscillation of deep convection with centers over the equatorial central Pacific (CP) and over the tropical western North Pacific and the Maritime Continent. The second leading mode (EOF2) is also a dipole pattern with opposite centers straddling 170°W, possibly modifying EOF1 to some extent. Combining the first two leading modes, five major categories of tropical convection anomalies can be identified for the period 1979/80-2012/13. The comparison between these five categories and the corresponding SST anomaly patterns indicates a nonlinear relationship between convection and SST. The combination of EOF1 and EOF2 with in-phase PCs exhibits an east-west dipole pattern with opposite signs over west of the dateline and the Maritime Continent. The negative phase of the two PCs, named La Niña pattern, induces a negative Pacific/North American—positive North Atlantic Oscillation teleconnection in the extratropics. Approximately opposite responses can be detected in its positive phase, named CP El Niño pattern. The negative PC2 superposing positive PC1, named EP El Niño pattern, shows the strongest convection anomalies with enhanced (depressed) convection over the eastern (western) Pacific and leads to a Tropical/Northern Hemisphere-like teleconnection pattern and an anomalous anticyclone extending from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic. The positive PC2 with neutral PC1, named western CP pattern, shows weakly enhanced convection to the west of the dateline as a response to local SST warming around the dateline. This convection anomaly pattern, although weak, is important and excites a northeastward wave train from the tropics to Greenland, resulting in surface air temperature cooling covering the northeastern North America and warmer and wetter conditions over Western Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climatic consequences of the Young Toba Tuff (YTT) eruption about 73 ka are a crucial argument in the current discussion about the fate of modern humans, especially in Africa and Asia. Earth system model (ESM) simulations of the YTT eruption are used to investigate its regional climate impacts, in particular focusing on areas relevant to human evolutionary issues during that time. Uncertainties concerning the stratospheric sulphur emission for the YTT eruption are addressed by comparing ESM simulations of a 100 times Pinatubo-like eruption as an upper and a 3 times Pinatubo-like (Tambora) eruption as a lower estimate. Information about transient changes in vegetation types after the YTT eruption are obtained by forcing an offline dynamical global vegetation model with the climate anomalies simulated by the ESM under both glacial and interglacial background climate conditions. The simulated temperature changes in those areas that were inhabited by humans suggest thermal discomfort, but not a real challenge for survival. Precipitation is reduced in all regions during the first two years but recovers quickly thereafter. Some catchments in these regions (Ganges/Brahmaputra, Nile), experience an over-compensation in precipitation during the third to fifth post-eruption years which is also reflected in anomalously strong river runoffs. Change in vegetation composition may have created the biggest pressure on humans, who had to adapt to more open space with fewer trees and more grasses for some decades especially in the African regions. The strongest environmental impacts of the YTT eruption are simulated under interglacial background conditions suggesting that the climate effects of the YTT eruption did not impact humans on a major scale and for a period long enough to have dramatic consequences for their survival. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Using 1958-2002 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, we investigate stationary and transient planetary wave propagation and its role in wave-mean flow interaction which influences the state of the polar vortex (PV) in the stratosphere in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter. This is done by analyzing the Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux and its divergence. We find that the stationary and transient waves propagate upward and equatorward in NH winter, with stronger upward propagation of stationary waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere, and stronger equatorward propagation of transient waves from mid-latitudes to the subtropics in the troposphere. Stationary waves exhibit more upward propagation in the polar stratosphere during the weak polar vortex regime (WVR) than during the strong polar vortex regime (SVR). On the other hand, transient waves have more upward propagation during SVR than during WVR in the subpolar stratosphere, with a domain of low frequency waves. With different paths of upward propagation, both stationary and transient waves contribute to the maintenance of the observed stratospheric PV regimes in NH winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper describes a convection parameterization employing a new formulation of the quasi-equilibrium closure hypothesis of Arakawa and Schubert. The scheme models a full spectrum of different cumulus clouds and its evolution within one time step of the host global climate model. Each cloud is simulated using a one-dimensional Lagrangian entraining parcel model, which includes mixed phase microphysics and vertical velocity. Hence, the model delivers explicit information on distribution of vertical velocities, precipitation intensities, cloud heights, and cloud coverage. The parameterization is evaluated in the ECHAM single-column model for midlatitude summer and tropical convection. Results show an improved temporal distribution, including the diurnal cycle, of convective heating and moistening in comparison to the Tiedtke--Nordeng scheme, which is the standard convection parameterization within ECHAM. The amount and temporal distribution of precipitation are clearly improved compared with the original parameterization. The convective cloud field model (CCFM) does not produce spurious convection events occurring with the standard parameterization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the land cover changes on the Tibetan Plateau during the last 50 years partly caused by natural climate change and, more importantly, influenced by human activities. Recent warming trends on the plateau directly influence the permafrost and snow melting and will impact on the local ecosystem greatly. Human activities increased rapidly on the plateau during the last half century and have significant impacts on land use. Significant land cover changes on the Tibetan Plateau include permafrost and grassland degradation, urbanization, deforestation and desertification. These changes not only impact on local climate and environment, but also have important hydrological implications for the rivers which originate from the plateau. The most noticeable disasters include the flooding at the upper reaches of Yangtze River and droughts along the middle and lower reaches of Yellow River. Future possible land cover changes under future global climate warming are important but hard to assess due to the deficits of global climate model in this topographically complex area. Integrated investigation of climate and ecosystems, including human-beings, are highly recommended for future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydrological impact of forest removal on the southeast Tibetan Plateau during the second half of the last century is investigated in this study using an atmospheric general circulation model. The effects of deforestation are investigated by examining the differences between the forest replacement and control experiments. Model results demonstrate that deforestation of the southeast Tibetan Plateau would influence the local and the remote climate as well. It would lead to decreased transpiration and increased summer precipitation in the deforested area and a wetter and warmer climate on the Tibetan Plateau in summer. This may produce more runoff into the rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau and worsen flooding disasters in the downstream areas. The numerical experiments also show that deforestation would remotely impact Asian climate, and even global climate, although the statistical significance is small. A strong drought is found at middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, where livelihoods and economics have suffered from recent droughts. Ecosystem research on the Tibetan Plateau is a relatively new topic and needs further interdisciplinary investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A general atmospheric circulation model (ECHAM5) has been applied to investigate the impact of land use changes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on local and global climate. The “control” simulation with current land cover reasonably represents the large-scale circulation and state of the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau and the surrounding region. Modifying the land cover to a hypothetical non-anthropogenically-influenced vegetation cover shows significant modifications to the local and remote climate. Compared to this scenario, the TP is warmer and drier under present conditions. The Indian summer monsoon is intensified and the East China summer monsoon is weakened due to human-induced land cover change on the TP. The mean global temperature has almost no variation, whereas precipitation slightly increases. Our study indicates that human-induced land use changes on the Tibetan Plateau have had a significant impact on local to regional, and to a lesser extent global, climate. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

From recent satellite observations, it is evident that an increase in cloud condensation nuclei—for instance, due to biomass burning—can substantially reduce rain efficiency of convective clouds. This is potentially important for the global climate since the release of latent heat due to condensation of water vapour and fallout of rain from cumulus convection is the most important source for available potential energy in the free troposphere. Beyond this, cumulus convection is a key process in controlling the water vapour content of the atmosphere. The sensitivity of the global climate to modification in rain efficiency of convective clouds due to the suppression of drop coalescence by anthropogenic aerosols is studied by using the atmospheric general circulation model (A-GCM), ECHAM4. This paper presents results from a 15-year sensitivity study, which considers the aerosol effect on warm precipitation formation. Effects on ice processes are not included yet, and therefore the results likely underestimate the magnitude of the full effects due to suppression of precipitation. Instantaneous forcing is large locally (up to 100% reduction of precipitation and the related latent heat release) but confined to small areas, leading to small large-scale mean anomalies in the convective heating and therefore the vertical temperature gradient. We found a definite perturbation of the global circulation, showing distinct sensitivity to the impact of aerosols on suppressing rainfall. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Information on a workshop titled "Concepts for Convective Parameterizations in Large-Scale Models IV: Convective Organisation" held in Cambridge, England on March 23-25, 2011 is presented. The focus of the workshop was a discussion of issues pertaining to atmospheric convective organization and the implications for parameterization from both a theoretical and operational perspective. Presentations on the perspectives of theoretical physics and of meteorological phenomenology are discussed.

Aerosols have an important effect on atmospheric chemistry throughout the troposphere and lower stratosphere. The interaction of aerosols in smoke from biomass burning with clouds in Amazonia, describes the additional effects that potentially have significant impact on climate at the regional to continental scale. As aerosols, mainly from biomass burning in the tropics, affect the efficiency of precipitation and latent heat release in these latitudes, changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere, namely of the tropical systems of Hadley and Walker circulation is also expected.

The present study investigates different impacts of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) on surface air temperature (Ts) in North America (NA) during ENSO and neutral ENSO episodes. In neutral ENSO years, the EAWM shows a direct impact on the Ts anomalies in NA on an interannual time scale. Two Rossby wave packets appear over the Eurasian–western Pacific (upstream) and North Pacific–NA (downstream) regions associated with a strong EAWM. Further analysis suggests that the downstream wave packet is caused by reflection of the upstream wave packet over the subtropical western Pacific and amplified over the North Pacific. Also, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream (EAJS) is intensified in the central and downstream region over the central North Pacific. Hence, increased barotropic kinetic energy conversion and the interaction between transient eddies and the EAJS tend to maintain the circulation anomaly over the North Pacific. Therefore, a strong EAWM tends to result in warm Ts anomalies in northwestern NA via the downstream wave packet emanating from the central North Pacific toward NA. A weak EAWM tends to induce cold Ts anomalies in western-central NA with a smaller magnitude. However, in ENSO years, an anomalous EAJS is mainly confined over East Asia and does not extend into the central North Pacific. The results confirm that the EAWM has an indirect impact on the Ts anomalies in NA via a modulation of the tropical convection anomalies associated with ENSO. Our results indicate that, for seasonal prediction of Ts anomalies in NA, the influence of the EAWM should be taken into account. It produces different responses in neutral ENSO and in ENSO years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, mechanisms for the formation of quasi-stationary extratropical wave trains associated with four distinct winter patterns of seasonal mean tropical Pacific convection anomalies, including the western CP (W-CP) pattern, La Niña (LN) pattern, CP El Niño (CPEN) pattern and EP El Niño (EPEN) pattern, are investigated by utilizing observational and six Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (AMIP5) high-skilled models (ACCESS1.0, CanAM4, CCSM4, CMCC-CM, HadGEM2-A, MPI-ESM-LR) datasets. The observational results show that tropical Pacific forcing induces upper-level anomalous Rossby wave source that force vorticity over the central North Pacific through modulating the local Hadley circulation, then excite eastward propagation of quasi-stationary planetary waves penetrating into the North Atlantic, and finally establish the associated teleconnections in mid- and high-latitudes by local synoptic eddy–mean flow interaction. Different structures of wave trains may be explained by evident differences in intensity and scale of the extratropical vorticity forcing originating from distinct convection anomalies over the tropical Pacific. The MME results further confirm the possible physical processes obtained from observations, but there still exist some significant differences. These cover the North Pacific and North America and can possibly be attributed to the models' simulation ability of extratropical vorticity forcing and local storm track intensity. In addition, the stratosphere–troposphere interaction plays an important role for extratropical atmospheric circulation anomalies. The stratospheric polar vortex not only modulates the underlying wave train, especially for the North Atlantic/Europe sector, but is also affected by the upper-tropospheric disturbance in high-latitudes through the upward wave activity flux. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the performance of 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models forced by observational SSTs in simulating the tropical Pacific convective variation and the atmospheric responses in the extratropics are assessed. The multi-model ensemble mean results of 18 CMIP5 models show that five major patterns of tropical Pacific convection anomaly in winter can indeed be well reproduced, however, the simulation of the corresponding extratropical responses for each pattern exists some deficiency except for the La Niña pattern compared with observations. We defined an optimized subset of well performing models (ACCESS1.0, CanAM4, CCSM4, CMCC-CM, HadGEM2-A, MPI-ESM-MR) in tropical Pacific deep convection according to the ranking of model skill score. These models exhibit approximately identical convection anomaly patterns in both amplitude and spatial structure to the observation, which potentially might improve the representation of extratropical teleconnections with the tropical Pacific, especially for the CP El Niño (CPEN), EP El Niño (EPEN) and western CP (W-CP) patterns. Both evident atmospheric anomalies of CPEN and EPEN patterns over the NA/E sector and the northeastward propagating wave trains of W-CP pattern can be quite well simulated in the high-skilled models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A cross-validated statistical model has been developed to produce hindcasts for the 1980-2016 November-December-January (NDJ; assumed El Niño peak) mean Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). A linear combination of two parameters is sufficient to successfully predict the peak SSTA: 1) the 5°N-5°S, 130°E-180°, 5-250-m oceanic potential temperature anomalies in February and 2) the 5°N-5°S, 140°E-160°W cumulative zonal wind anomalies (ZWA), integrated from November (one year before) up to the prediction month. This model is simple but is comparable to, or even outperforms, many NOAA Climate Prediction Center's statistical models during the boreal spring predictability barrier. In contrast to most statistical models, the predictand Niño-3.4 SSTA is not used as a predictor. The explained variance between observed and predicted NDJ Niño-3.4 SSTA at a lead time of 8 months is 57% using 5 yr for cross validation and 63% in full hindcast mode.Predictive skill is lower after 2000 when the mean climate state is more La Niña-like because of stronger equatorial easterly ZWA. Strengthened Pacific subtropical highs are observed, with weaker westerly ZWA that emerge at a later time during El Niño. The western Pacific is more recharged, with stronger upwelling over the eastern Pacific. The resulting strong zonal subsurface temperature gradient provides a high potential for Kelvin waves being triggered without strong westerly ZWA. However, the persistent easterly ZWA lead to more central Pacific-like El Niños. These are more difficult to predict because the contribution of the thermocline feedback is reduced. Overall, the authors find that the importance of the recharge state for ENSO prediction has increased after 2000, contradicting some previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This article investigates the year-to-year variability of the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon ( SCSSM) and the possible influences exerted by the surface temperature anomalies over land and sea. Early and late monsoon onsets are related to the temperature anomalies in different regions. It is found that an early onset follows negative sea surface temperature ( SST) anomalies in the central tropical Pacific ( CP) Ocean during the preceding winter and spring, corresponding to a CP La Niña. In contrast, a late onset is preceded by the negative surface air temperature anomalies over land in the central Asian continent. Negative SST anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and the associated warming in the western Pacific induce an anomalously enhanced Walker circulation. This anomalous Walker cell leads to an increase in convection, causing more latent heat release and a subsequent decrease of surface pressure. The anomalous Walker cell and the enhanced latent heat release weaken the Western North Pacific subtropical high and the Philippine Sea anticyclone, favouring a westerly flow from the Indian Ocean, resulting in an early SCSSM onset. On the other hand, negative land surface temperature anomalies cool the atmosphere over land, and locally modify the Hadley circulation, accompanied by the anomalous divergence in the low-level atmosphere over the western equatorial Pacific. This divergence anomaly reduces the latent heat release and strengthens the anticyclone in the Philippine Sea, thus preventing the westward extension of the westerlies from the Indian Ocean and causing a late SCSSM onset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different types of El Niño (EN) events have recently been discussed. Based on NCEP-NOAA reanalysis data this analysis explores a number of key parameters that cause a range of EN types over the period 1980-2013. EN events are divided into three types depending on the spatial and temporal evolution of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA): Central Pacific (CPEN), Eastern Pacific (EPEN), and Hybrid (HBEN). We find that EN is a continuous spectrum of events with CPEN and EPEN as the end members. This spectrum mainly depends on two key parameters: the 130°E-160°E Western Pacific 5-250 m subsurface oceanic potential temperature anomaly about 1 year before the EN peak (typically January and February), and the 140°E-160°W cumulative zonal wind anomaly (ZWA) between onset and peak of the EN event. Using these two parameters, about 70 % of the total variance of the maximum SSTA realised in different Niño regions can already be explained up to 6 months before the maximum SSTA occurs. This offers a rather simple potential for ENSO prediction. A necessary condition for the evolution of an EPEN, the Western Pacific is in the recharged state. Strong and sustained westerly wind anomalies in Western Pacific can then trigger a Kelvin wave propagating to the eastern Pacific. Both parameters, potential temperature and zonal wind anomaly, constructively interfere. For a CPEN, these parameters are much less important. Kelvin wave propagation is not involved in the evolution of the event. Instead, the Central Pacific warming is caused locally by a zonal advection feedback and local air-sea interaction as already demonstrated in previous studies. The HBEN occurs when both parameters interfere in different ways: (1) Western Pacific is weakly charged, but strong westerly ZWA are observed that reduce the equatorial upwelling in the Central Pacific while the triggered Kelvin wave is too weak to have a significant effect; (2) Western Pacific is strongly charged but only weak westerly ZWA develop, so that the resulting Kelvin wave cannot fully extend into the eastern-most Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The presented turbulence scheme was developed for the Active Tracer High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (ATHAM) to parameterize the effect of subgrid-scale turbulence. In contrast to the commonly used assumption of local isotropy in high-resolution atmospheric modeling, this scheme differentiates between horizontal and vertical turbulent exchange to represent the strong influence of buoyancy forces and vertical transports. Its computational efficiency is similar to classical turbulent kinetic energy approaches while preserving one of the main feature of higher-order schemes. The present extensions to include anisotropic effects in a turbulent kinetic energy approach do not need any ad hoc assumptions and are equivalent to the classical formulation in the isotropic limit. The presence of high tracer concentrations in a particle-laden plume is taken into account, as well as supersonic effects at low Mach numbers. The turbulent exchange coefficients used in the equations of motion are derived from a set of three coupled differential equations for the horizontal and vertical turbulent energy and the turbulent length scale. No turbulent equilibrium is assumed. All turbulent quantities are treated prognostically. Numerical simulations of convective plumes of a typical Plinian volcanic eruption with the nonhydrostatic plume model ATHAM reveal that a complex treatment of turbulent quantities is necessary in order to capture the bulk characteristics of the plume, such as the plume height, the horizontal extent, and plume development in time. Anisotropic effects of turbulence have a significant impact on the stability and internal structure of the plume. For the first time, results from a fully three-dimensional simulation of a volcanic plume are presented. Because of its general formulation the presented turbulence scheme is suitable for a wide range of atmospheric applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study reveals a close relation between the interannual variation of Aleutian low intensity (ALI) in March and the subsequent winter El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). When March ALI is weaker (stronger) than normal, an El Niño (a La Niña)–like sea surface temperature (SST) warming (cooling) tends to appear in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific during the subsequent winter. The physical process linking March ALI to the following winter ENSO is as follows. When March ALI is below normal, a notable atmospheric dipole pattern develops over the North Pacific, with an anticyclonic anomaly over the Aleutian region and a cyclonic anomaly over the subtropical west-central Pacific. The formation of the anomalous cyclone is attributed to feedback of the synoptic-scale eddy-to-mean-flow energy flux and associated vorticity transportation. Specifically, easterly wind anomalies over the midlatitudes related to the weakened ALI are accompanied by a decrease in synoptic-scale eddy activity, which forces an anomalous cyclone to its southern flank. The accompanying westerly wind anomalies over the tropical west-central Pacific induce SST warming in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific during the following summer–autumn via triggering eastward-propagating warm Kelvin waves, which may sustain and develop into an El Niño event during the following winter via positive air–sea feedback. The relation of March ALI with the following winter ENSO is independent of the preceding tropical Pacific SST, the preceding-winter North Pacific Oscillation, and the spring Arctic Oscillation. The results of this analysis may provide an additional source for the prediction of ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract With 450,000 km2 Kobresia (syn. Carex) pygmaea dominated pastures in the eastern Tibetan highlands are the world's largest pastoral alpine ecosystem forming a durable turf cover at 3000–6000 m a.s.l. Kobresia 's resilience and competitiveness is based on dwarf habit, predominantly below-ground allocation of photo assimilates, mixture of seed production and clonal growth, and high genetic diversity. Kobresia growth is co-limited by livestock-mediated nutrient withdrawal and, in the drier parts of the plateau, low rainfall during the short and cold growing season. Overstocking has caused pasture degradation and soil deterioration over most parts of the Tibetan highlands and is the basis for this man-made ecosystem. Natural autocyclic processes of turf destruction and soil erosion are initiated through polygonal turf cover cracking, and accelerated by soil-dwelling endemic small mammals in the absence of predators. The major consequences of vegetation cover deterioration include the release of large amounts of C, earlier diurnal formation of clouds, and decreased surface temperatures. These effects decrease the recovery potential of Kobresia pastures and make them more vulnerable to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Traditional migratory rangeland management was sustainable over millennia, and possibly still offers the best strategy to conserve and possibly increase C stocks in the Kobresia turf. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Kobresia pygmaea is co-limited by low rainfall, short growing season and livestock. • Overstocking has caused pasture degradation and soil deterioration. • Natural autocyclic processes of turf erosion are initiated by polygonal cracking. • C & nutrient release, earlier diurnal cloud formation, surface temperature decrease. • Traditional migratory rangeland management offers best strategy for conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacial-state greenhouse gas concentrations and Southern Hemisphere climate conditions persisted until ~17.7 ka, when a nearly synchronous acceleration in deglaciation was recorded in paleoclimate proxies in large parts of the Southern Hemisphere, with many changes ascribed to a sudden poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies and subsequent climate impacts. We used high-resolution chemical measurements in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide, Byrd, and other ice cores to document a unique, ~192-y series of halogen-rich volcanic eruptions exactly at the start of accelerated deglaciation, with tephra identifying the nearby Mount Takahe volcano as the source. Extensive fallout from these massive eruptions has been found >2,800 km from Mount Takahe. Sulfur isotope anomalies and marked decreases in ice core bromine consistent with increased surface UV radiation indicate that the eruptions led to stratospheric ozone depletion. Rather than a highly improbable coincidence, circulation and climate changes extending from the Antarctic Peninsula to the subtropics--similar to those associated with modern stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica--plausibly link the Mount Takahe eruptions to the onset of accelerated Southern Hemisphere deglaciation ~17.7 ka. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sichuan basin is one of the most densely populated regions of China, making the area particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts associated with future climate change. As such, climate models are important for understanding regional and local impacts of climate change and variability, like heat stress and drought. In this study, climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are validated over the Sichuan basin by evaluating how well each model can capture the phase, amplitude, and variability of the regionally observed mean, maximum, and minimum temperature between 1979 and 2005. The results reveal that the majority of the models do not capture the basic spatial pattern and observed means, trends, and probability distribution functions. In particular, mean and minimum temperatures are underestimated, especially during the winter, resulting in biases exceeding −3°C. Models that reasonably represent the complex basin topography are found to generally have lower biases overall. The five most skillful climate models with respect to the regional climate of the Sichuan basin are selected to explore twenty-first-century temperature projections for the region. Under the CMIP5 high-emission future climate change scenario, representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), the temperatures are projected to increase by approximately 4°C (with an average warming rate of +0.72°C decade−1), with the greatest warming located over the central plains of the Sichuan basin, by 2100. Moreover, the frequency of extreme months (where mean temperature exceeds 28°C) is shown to increase in the twenty-first century at a faster rate compared to the twentieth century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combined impacts of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and two types of La Niña on climate anomalies in Europe are studied. Particularly, the conjunction of the negative PDO phase and two different types of La Niña events favors strong and significant North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern anomalies with opposite polarity. For the central Pacific (CP) La Niña, a clear positive NAO signal can be detected, which is accompanied by positive surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly and a dipolar structure of precipitation anomalies in Europe. In addition, a typical negative Pacific-North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern forms, including a high pressure anomaly over the southeastern United States, which may contribute to the development and maintenance of the NAO anomaly by strengthening the baroclinicity and the local eddy-mean flow interaction. However, for the eastern Pacific (EP) La Niña, a zonal wave train in the high latitudes can be observed, which is quite different from the typical PNA structure. Here, an anomalous anticyclone over southern Greenland supports a negative NAO pattern through the local eddy-mean flow interaction and the associated vorticity advection. Hence, reversed SAT and precipitation anomalies occur over Europe. Further analyses indicate that the wave trains emanating from the North Pacific and the synoptic eddy-mean flow interaction play essential roles in forming the anomalous NAO phases. The different wave trains for the CP and EP La Niña events may be attributed to the differences in the location and intensity of anomalous convection induced by different types of SST anomaly as well as by the corresponding background westerly wind anomalies in the upper troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A decadal change in summer rainfall in the Asian inland plateau (AIP) region is identified around 1999. This decadal change is characterized by an abrupt decrease in summer rainfall of about 15.7% of the climatological average amount, leading to prolonged drought in the Asian inland plateau region. Both the surface air temperature and potential evapotranspiration in the AIP show a significant increase, while the soil moisture exhibits a decrease, after the late 1990s. Furthermore, the normalized difference vegetation index shows an apparent decreasing trend during 1999-2007. Three different drought indices-the standardized precipitation index, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index-present pronounced climate anomalies during 1999-2007, indicating dramatic drought exacerbation in the region after the late 1990s. This decadal change in the summer rainfall may be attributable to a wave-like teleconnection pattern from Western Europe to Asia. A set of model sensitivity experiments suggests that the summer warming sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic could induce this teleconnection pattern over Eurasia, resulting in recent drought in the AIP region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long-term atmospheric cycling and fete of persistent organic pollutants under the influence of a changing climate is a concern. A GCM's realization of present-day (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate, the latter under a medium scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, is used to study meridional transports and their correlations with the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations (AO and NAO). Regions of import and export maxima into the Arctic are identified along the Arctic Circle. It is found that, under future climate conditions, the net export of PCB153 out of the Arctic will increase. The meridional net flux pattern of this substance is expected to become independent of AO and NAO. For DDT, a trend of decreasing net Arctic import will reverse to an increasing trend 100 years after peak emission, which is partly due to more frequent AO and NAO positive phases. It is concluded that the long-term accumulation trends in the Arctic of other persistent pollutants, including so-called emerging pollutants, are subject to the substances' specific behavior and fate in the environment and need to be studied specifically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the cloud resolving Active Tracer High-resolution Atmospheric Model coupled to the interactive surface model Hybrid in order to investigate the diurnal development of a lake-breeze system at the Nam Co Lake on the Tibetan Plateau. Simulations with several background wind speeds are conducted, and the interaction of the lake breeze with topography and background wind in triggering moist and deep convection is studied. The model is able to adequately simulate the systems most important dynamical features such as turbulent surface fluxes and the development of a lake breeze for the different wind conditions. We identify two different mechanisms for convection triggering that are dependent on the direction of the background wind: triggering over topography, when the background wind and the lake breeze have the same flow direction, and triggering due to convergence between the lake-breeze front and the background wind. Our research also suggests that precipitation measurements at the centre of the basins on the Tibetan Plateau are not representative for the basin as a whole as precipitation is expected to occur mainly in the vicinity of the topography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This forum article is the product of interdisciplinary discussion at a conference on climate histories held in Cambridge, United Kingdom, in early 2011, with the specific aim of building a network around the issue of communicating cultural knowledge of environmental change. The lead articles, by Kirsten Hastrup as an anthropologist and Simon Schaffer as a historian of science, highlight the role of agents and proxies. These are followed by five interdisciplinary commentaries, which engage with the lead articles through new ethnographic material, and a set of shorter commentaries by leading scholars of different disciplines. Finally, the lead authors respond to the discussion. In this debate, climate change does not emerge as a single preformed "problem." Rather, different climate knowledges appear as products of particular networks and agencies. Just as the identification of proxies creates agents (ice, mountains, informants) by inserting them into new networks, we hope that these cross-disciplinary exchanges will produce further conversations and new approaches to action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]