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Abstract Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 200 common genetic variants independently associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, but the causal variants and target genes are mostly unknown. We sought to fine-map all known CRC risk loci using GWAS data from 100,204 cases and 154,587 controls of East Asian and European ancestry. Our stepwise conditional analyses revealed 238 independent association signals of CRC risk, each with a set of credible causal variants (CCVs), of which 28 signals had a single CCV. Our cis-eQTL/mQTL and colocalization analyses using colorectal tissue-specific transcriptome and methylome data separately from 1299 and 321 individuals, along with functional genomic investigation, uncovered 136 putative CRC susceptibility genes, including 56 genes not previously reported. Analyses of single-cell RNA-seq data from colorectal tissues revealed 17 putative CRC susceptibility genes with distinct expression patterns in specific cell types. Analyses of whole exome sequencing data provided additional support for several target genes identified in this study as CRC susceptibility genes. Enrichment analyses of the 136 genes uncover pathways not previously linked to CRC risk. Our study substantially expanded association signals for CRC and provided additional insight into the biological mechanisms underlying CRC development.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Abstract Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expand PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS are 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1681-3651 cases and 8696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They are significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values

Abstract Introduction Lynch syndrome (LS) is a hereditary condition that increases the risk of colorectal (CRC) and extracolonic cancers that exhibit microsatellite instability (MSI‐H). MSI‐H is driven by defective mismatch repair (dMMR), and approximately 15% of nonhereditary CRCs also exhibit MSI‐H. Here, we aimed to better define mechanisms underlying tumor initiation in LS and MSI‐H cancers through multi‐omic analyses of LS normal colon organoids and MSI‐H tumors. Methods Right (n = 35) and left (n = 23) colon organoids generated from normal colon biopsies at routine colonoscopy of LS and healthy individuals were subjected to Illumina EPIC array. Differentially methylated region (DMR) analysis was performed by DMRcate. RNA‐sequencing (n = 16) and bisulfite‐sequencing (n = 15) were performed on a subset of right colon organoids. CRISPR‐cas9‐mediated editing of MMR genes in colon organoids of healthy individuals was followed by quantitative PCR of MSH4. The relationship between MSH4 expression and tumor mutational burden was further explored in three independent tumor data sets. Results We identified a hypermethylated region of MSH4 in both the right and left colon organoids of LS versus healthy controls, which we validated using bisulfite‐sequencing. DMR analysis in three gastrointestinal and one endometrial data set revealed that this region was also hypermethylated in MSI‐H versus microsatellite stable (MSS) tumors. MSH4 expression was increased in colon organoids of LS versus healthy subjects and in publicly available MSI‐H versus MSS tumors across four RNA‐seq and four microarray data sets. CRISPR‐cas9 editing of MLH1 and MSH2, but not MSH6, in normal colon organoids significantly increased MSH4 expression. MSH4 expression was significantly associated with tumor mutational burden in three publicly available data sets. Conclusions Our findings implicate DNA methylation and gene expression differences of MSH4 as a marker of dMMR and as a potential novel biomarker of LS. Our study of LS colon organoids supports the hypothesis that dMMR exists in the colons of LS subjects prior to CRC.

Abstract The role of the human gut microbiome in colorectal cancer (CRC) is unclear as most studies on the topic are unable to discern correlation from causation. We apply two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to estimate the causal relationship between the gut microbiome and CRC. We used summary-level data from independent genome-wide association studies to estimate the causal effect of 14 microbial traits (n = 3890 individuals) on overall CRC (55,168 cases, 65,160 controls) and site-specific CRC risk, conducting several sensitivity analyses to understand the nature of results. Initial MR analysis suggested that a higher abundance of Bifidobacterium and presence of an unclassified group of bacteria within the Bacteroidales order in the gut increased overall and site-specific CRC risk. However, sensitivity analyses suggested that instruments used to estimate relationships were likely complex and involved in many potential horizontal pleiotropic pathways, demonstrating that caution is needed when interpreting MR analyses with gut microbiome exposures. In assessing reverse causality, we did not find strong evidence that CRC causally affected these microbial traits. Whilst our study initially identified potential causal roles for two microbial traits in CRC, importantly, further exploration of these relationships highlighted that these were unlikely to reflect causality.

Abstract Observational studies have shown higher folate consumption to be associated with lower risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Understanding whether and how genetic risk factors interact with folate could further elucidate the underlying mechanism. Aggregating functionally relevant genetic variants in set-based variant testing has higher power to detect gene–environment (G × E) interactions and may provide information on the underlying biological pathway. We investigated interactions between folate consumption and predicted gene expression on colorectal cancer risk across the genome. We used variant weights from the PrediXcan models of colon tissue-specific gene expression as a priori variant information for a set-based G × E approach. We harmonized total folate intake (mcg/day) based on dietary intake and supplemental use across cohort and case–control studies and calculated sex and study specific quantiles. Analyses were performed using a mixed effects score tests for interactions between folate and genetically predicted expression of 4839 genes with available genetically predicted expression. We pooled results across 23 studies for a total of 13,498 cases with colorectal tumors and 13,918 controls of European ancestry. We used a false discovery rate of 0.2 to identify genes with suggestive evidence of an interaction. We found suggestive evidence of interaction with folate intake on CRC risk for genes including glutathione S-Transferase Alpha 1 (GSTA1; p = 4.3E−4), Tonsuko Like, DNA Repair Protein (TONSL; p = 4.3E−4), and Aspartylglucosaminidase (AGA: p = 4.5E−4). We identified three genes involved in preventing or repairing DNA damage that may interact with folate consumption to alter CRC risk. Glutathione is an antioxidant, preventing cellular damage and is a downstream metabolite of homocysteine and metabolized by GSTA1. TONSL is part of a complex that functions in the recovery of double strand breaks and AGA plays a role in lysosomal breakdown of glycoprotein.

Abstract Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a heterogeneous disease with evidence of distinct tumor types that develop through different somatically altered pathways. To better understand the impact of the host genome on somatically mutated genes and pathways, we assessed associations of germline variations with somatic events via two complementary approaches. We first analyzed the association between individual germline genetic variants and the presence of non-silent somatic mutations in genes in 1375 CRC cases with genome-wide SNPs data and a tumor sequencing panel targeting 205 genes. In the second analysis, we tested if germline variants located within previously identified regions of somatic allelic imbalance were associated with overall CRC risk using summary statistics from a recent large scale GWAS (n≃125 k CRC cases and controls). The first analysis revealed that a variant (rs78963230) located within a CNA region associated with TLR3 was also associated with a non-silent mutation within gene FBXW7. In the secondary analysis, the variant rs2302274 located in CDX1/PDGFRB frequently gained/lost in colorectal tumors was associated with overall CRC risk (OR = 0.96, p = 7.50e-7). In summary, we demonstrate that an integrative analysis of somatic and germline variation can lead to new insights about CRC.

Background & Aims: The association of genetic variation with tissue-specific gene expression and alternative splicing guides functional characterization of complex trait-associated loci and may suggest novel genes implicated in disease. Here, our aims were as follows: (1) to generate reference profiles of colon mucosa gene expression and alternative splicing and compare them across colon subsites (ascending, transverse, and descending), (2) to identify expression and splicing quantitative trait loci (QTLs), (3) to find traits for which identified QTLs contribute to single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based heritability, (4) to propose candidate effector genes, and (5) to provide a web-based visualization resource. Methods: We collected colonic mucosal biopsy specimens from 485 healthy adults and performed bulk RNA sequencing. We performed genome-wide SNP genotyping from blood leukocytes. Statistical approaches and bioinformatics software were used for QTL identification and downstream analyses. Results: We provided a complete quantification of gene expression and alternative splicing across colon subsites and described their differences. We identified thousands of expression and splicing QTLs and defined their enrichment at genome-wide regulatory regions. We found that part of the SNP-based heritability of diseases affecting colon tissue, such as colorectal cancer and inflammatory bowel disease, but also of diseases affecting other tissues, such as psychiatric conditions, can be explained by the identified QTLs. We provided candidate effector genes for multiple phenotypes. Finally, we provided the Colon Transcriptome Explorer web application. Conclusions: We provide a large characterization of gene expression and splicing across colon subsites. Our findings provide greater etiologic insight into complex traits and diseases influenced by transcriptomic changes in colon tissue.

Abstract Alcohol is a consistently identified risk factor for colon cancer. However, the molecular mechanism underlying its effect on normal colon crypt cells remains poorly understood. We employed RNA-sequencing to asses transcriptomic response to ethanol exposure (0.2% vol:vol) in 3D organoid lines derived from healthy colon (n = 34). Paired regression analysis identified 2,162 differentially expressed genes in response to ethanol. When stratified by colon location, a far greater number of differentially expressed genes were identified in organoids derived from the left versus right colon, many of which corresponded to cell-type specific markers. To test the hypothesis that the effects of ethanol treatment on colon organoid populations were in part due to differential cell composition, we incorporated external single cell RNA-sequencing data from normal colon biopsies to estimate cellular proportions following single cell deconvolution. We inferred cell-type-specific changes, and observed an increase in transit amplifying cells following ethanol exposure that was greater in organoids from the left than right colon, with a concomitant decrease in more differentiated cells. If this occurs in the colon following alcohol consumption, this would lead to an increased zone of cells in the lower crypt where conditions are optimal for cell division and the potential to develop mutations.

Abstract Background Higher adiposity increases the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), but whether this relationship varies by anatomical sub-site or by sex is unclear. Further, the metabolic alterations mediating the effects of adiposity on CRC are not fully understood. Methods We examined sex- and site-specific associations of adiposity with CRC risk and whether adiposity-associated metabolites explain the associations of adiposity with CRC. Genetic variants from genome-wide association studies of body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, unadjusted for BMI; N = 806,810), and 123 metabolites from targeted nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics (N = 24,925), were used as instruments. Sex-combined and sex-specific Mendelian randomization (MR) was conducted for BMI and WHR with CRC risk (58,221 cases and 67,694 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium, Colorectal Cancer Transdisciplinary Study, and Colon Cancer Family Registry). Sex-combined MR was conducted for BMI and WHR with metabolites, for metabolites with CRC, and for BMI and WHR with CRC adjusted for metabolite classes in multivariable models. Results In sex-specific MR analyses, higher BMI (per 4.2 kg/m2) was associated with 1.23 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08, 1.38) times higher CRC odds among men (inverse-variance-weighted (IVW) model); among women, higher BMI (per 5.2 kg/m2) was associated with 1.09 (95% CI = 0.97, 1.22) times higher CRC odds. WHR (per 0.07 higher) was more strongly associated with CRC risk among women (IVW OR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.08, 1.43) than men (IVW OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.81, 1.36). BMI or WHR was associated with 104/123 metabolites at false discovery rate-corrected P ≤ 0.05; several metabolites were associated with CRC, but not in directions that were consistent with the mediation of positive adiposity-CRC relations. In multivariable MR analyses, associations of BMI and WHR with CRC were not attenuated following adjustment for representative metabolite classes, e.g., the univariable IVW OR for BMI with CRC was 1.12 (95% CI = 1.00, 1.26), and this became 1.11 (95% CI = 0.99, 1.26) when adjusting for cholesterol in low-density lipoprotein particles. Conclusions Our results suggest that higher BMI more greatly raises CRC risk among men, whereas higher WHR more greatly raises CRC risk among women. Adiposity was associated with numerous metabolic alterations, but none of these explained associations between adiposity and CRC. More detailed metabolomic measures are likely needed to clarify the mechanistic pathways.

Abstract Background Bilirubin, a byproduct of hemoglobin breakdown and purported anti-oxidant, is thought to be cancer preventive. We conducted complementary serological and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate whether alterations in circulating levels of bilirubin are associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We decided a priori to perform analyses separately in men and women based on suggestive evidence that associations may differ by sex. Methods In a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), pre-diagnostic unconjugated bilirubin (UCB, the main component of total bilirubin) concentrations were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography in plasma samples of 1386 CRC cases and their individually matched controls. Additionally, 115 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated (P

In cancer many gene variants may contribute to disease etiology, but the impact of a given gene variant may have varied effect size. Here, the authors analyse summary statistics of genome-wide association studies from fourteen cancers, and show the utility of polygenic risk scores may vary depending on cancer type.

Abstract Background Body mass index (BMI) and diabetes are established risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC), likely through perturbations in metabolic traits (e.g. insulin resistance and glucose homeostasis). Identification of interactions between variation in genes and these metabolic risk factors may identify novel biologic insights into CRC etiology. Methods To improve statistical power and interpretation for gene‐environment interaction (G × E) testing, we tested genetic variants that regulate expression of a gene together for interaction with BMI (kg/m2) and diabetes on CRC risk among 26 017 cases and 20 692 controls. Each variant was weighted based on PrediXcan analysis of gene expression data from colon tissue generated in the Genotype‐Tissue Expression Project for all genes with heritability ≥1%. We used a mixed‐effects model to jointly measure the G × E interaction in a gene by partitioning the interactions into the predicted gene expression levels (fixed effects), and residual G × E effects (random effects). G × BMI analyses were stratified by sex as BMI‐CRC associations differ by sex. We used false discovery rates to account for multiple comparisons and reported all results with FDR

Abstract: Persons of African ancestry (AA) have a twofold higher risk for multiple myeloma (MM) compared with persons of European ancestry (EA). Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) support a genetic contribution to MM etiology in individuals of EA. Little is known about genetic risk factors for MM in individuals of AA. We performed a meta-analysis of 2 GWASs of MM in 1813 cases and 8871 controls and conducted an admixture mapping scan to identify risk alleles. We fine-mapped the 23 known susceptibility loci to find markers that could better capture MM risk in individuals of AA and constructed a polygenic risk score (PRS) to assess the aggregated effect of known MM risk alleles. In GWAS meta-analysis, we identified 2 suggestive novel loci located at 9p24.3 and 9p13.1 at P < 1 × 10−6; however, no genome-wide significant association was noted. In admixture mapping, we observed a genome-wide significant inverse association between local AA at 2p24.1-23.1 and MM risk in AA individuals. Of the 23 known EA risk variants, 20 showed directional consistency, and 9 replicated at P < .05 in AA individuals. In 8 regions, we identified markers that better capture MM risk in persons with AA. AA individuals with a PRS in the top 10% had a 1.82-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.56-2.11) increased MM risk compared with those with average risk (25%-75%). The strongest functional association was between the risk allele for variant rs56219066 at 5q15 and lower ELL2 expression (P = 5.1 × 10−12). Our study shows that common genetic variation contributes to MM risk in individuals with AA.

BackgroundEpidemiological studies have reported conflicting findings on the potential adverse effects of long-term antihypertensive medication use on cancer risk. Naturally occurring variation in genes encoding antihypertensive drug targets can be used as proxies for these targets to examine the effect of their long-term therapeutic inhibition on disease outcomes.Methods and findingsWe performed a mendelian randomization analysis to examine the association between genetically proxied inhibition of 3 antihypertensive drug targets and risk of 4 common cancers (breast, colorectal, lung, and prostate). Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in ACE, ADRB1, and SLC12A3 associated (P < 5.0 × 10-8) with systolic blood pressure (SBP) in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were used to proxy inhibition of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE), β-1 adrenergic receptor (ADRB1), and sodium-chloride symporter (NCC), respectively. Summary genetic association estimates for these SNPs were obtained from GWAS consortia for the following cancers: breast (122,977 cases, 105,974 controls), colorectal (58,221 cases, 67,694 controls), lung (29,266 cases, 56,450 controls), and prostate (79,148 cases, 61,106 controls). Replication analyses were performed in the FinnGen consortium (1,573 colorectal cancer cases, 120,006 controls). Cancer GWAS and FinnGen consortia data were restricted to individuals of European ancestry. Inverse-variance weighted random-effects models were used to examine associations between genetically proxied inhibition of these drug targets and risk of cancer. Multivariable mendelian randomization and colocalization analyses were employed to examine robustness of findings to violations of mendelian randomization assumptions. Genetically proxied ACE inhibition equivalent to a 1-mm Hg reduction in SBP was associated with increased odds of colorectal cancer (odds ratio (OR) 1.13, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.22; P = 3.6 × 10-4). This finding was replicated in the FinnGen consortium (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.92; P = 0.035). There was little evidence of association of genetically proxied ACE inhibition with risk of breast cancer (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.02, P = 0.35), lung cancer (OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.10; P = 0.93), or prostate cancer (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.13; P = 0.08). Genetically proxied inhibition of ADRB1 and NCC were not associated with risk of these cancers. The primary limitations of this analysis include the modest statistical power for analyses of drug targets in relation to some less common histological subtypes of cancers examined and the restriction of the majority of analyses to participants of European ancestry.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that genetically proxied long-term ACE inhibition was associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer, warranting comprehensive evaluation of the safety profiles of ACE inhibitors in clinical trials with adequate follow-up. There was little evidence to support associations across other drug target-cancer risk analyses, consistent with findings from short-term randomized controlled trials for these medications.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

In colorectal cancer (CRC), finding loci associated with risk may give insight into disease aetiology. Here, the authors report a genome-wide association analysis in Europeans of 34,627 CRC cases and 71,379 controls, and find 31 new risk loci and 17 new risk SNPs at previously reported loci.

Similarities in cancers can be studied to interrogate their etiology. Here, the authors use genome-wide association study summary statistics from six cancer types based on 296,215 cases and 301,319 controls of European ancestry, showing that solid tumours arising from different tissues share a degree of common germline genetic basis.

With an estimated $10.4 billion in medical costs and 31.4 million outpatient visits each year, influenza poses a serious burden of disease in the United States. To provide insights and advance warning into the spread of influenza, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) runs a challenge for forecasting weighted influenza-like illness (wILI) at the national and regional level. Many models produce independent forecasts for each geographical unit, ignoring the constraint that the national wILI is a weighted sum of regional wILI, where the weights correspond to the population size of the region. We propose a novel algorithm that transforms a set of independent forecast distributions to obey this constraint, which we refer to as probabilistically coherent. Enforcing probabilistic coherence led to an increase in forecast skill for 79% of the models we tested over multiple flu seasons, highlighting the importance of respecting the forecasting system's geographical hierarchy.

Summary: Homozygotes for the higher penetrance hemochromatosis risk allele, HFE c.845G>A (p.Cys282Tyr, or C282Y), have been reported to be at a 2- to 3-fold increased risk for colorectal cancer (CRC). These results have been reported for small sample size studies with no information about age at diagnosis for CRC. An association with age at diagnosis might alter CRC screening recommendations. We analyzed two large European ancestry datasets to assess the association of HFE genotype with CRC risk and age at CRC diagnosis. The first dataset included 59,733 CRC or advanced adenoma cases and 72,351 controls from a CRC epidemiological study consortium. The second dataset included 13,564 self-reported CRC cases and 2,880,218 controls from the personal genetics company, 23andMe. No association of the common hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) risk genotype and CRC was found in either dataset. The odds ratios (ORs) for the association of CRC and HFE C282Y homozygosity were 1.08 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91–1.29; p = 0.4) and 1.01 (95% CI, 0.78–1.31, p = 0.9) in the two cohorts, respectively. Age at CRC diagnosis also did not differ by HFE C282Y/C282Y genotype in either dataset. These results indicate no increased CRC risk in individuals with HH genotypes and suggest that persons with HH risk genotypes can follow population screening recommendations for CRC.

In this study we aimed to explore the potential biological effect of ethanol exposure on healthy colon epithelial cells using normal human colon 3D organoid "mini-gut" cultures. In numerous published studies ethanol use has been shown to be an environmental risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC) development; however, the influence of ethanol exposure on normal colon epithelial cell biology remains poorly understood. We investigated the potential molecular effects of ethanol exposure in normal colon 3D organoids in a small pilot study (n = 3) using RNA-seq and ATAC-seq. We identify 1965 differentially expressed genes and 2217 differentially accessible regions of chromatin in response to ethanol treatment. Further, by cross-referencing our results with previously published analysis in colorectal cancer cell lines, we have not only validated a number of reported differentially expressed genes, but also identified several novel candidates for future investigation. In summary, our data highlights the potential importance for the use of normal colon 3D organoid models as a novel tool for the investigation of the relationship between the effects of environmental risk factors associated with colorectal cancer and the molecular mechanisms through which they confer this risk.

Sensorineural hearing loss is one of the most common disabilities worldwide. Such prevalence necessitates effective tools for studying the molecular workings of cochlear cells. One prominent and effective vector for expressing genes of interest in research models is adeno-associated virus (AAV). However, AAV efficacy in transducing cochlear cells can vary for a number of reasons including serotype, species, and methodology, and oftentimes requires high multiplicity of infection which can damage the sensory cells. Reports in other systems suggest multiple approaches can be used to enhance AAV transduction including self-complementary vector design and pharmacological inhibition of degradation. Here we produced AAV to drive green fluorescent protein (GFP) expression in explanted neonatal mouse cochleae. Treatment with eeyarestatin I, tyrphostin 23, or lipofectamine 2000 did not result in increased transduction, however, self-complementary vector design resulted in significantly more GFP positive cells when compared to single-stranded controls. Similarly, self-complementary AAV2 vectors demonstrated enhanced transduction efficiency compared to single stranded AAV2 when injected via the posterior semicircular canal, in vivo. Self-complementary vectors for AAV1, 8, and 9 serotypes also demonstrated robust GFP transduction in cochlear cells in vivo, though these were not directly compared to single stranded vectors. These findings suggest that second-strand synthesis may be a rate limiting step in AAV transduction of cochlear tissues and that self-complementary AAV can be used to effectively target large numbers of cochlear cells in vitro and in vivo.

Seasonal influenza results in substantial annual morbidity and mortality in the United States and worldwide. Accurate forecasts of key features of influenza epidemics, such as the timing and severity of the peak incidence in a given season, can inform public health response to outbreaks. As part of ongoing efforts to incorporate data and advanced analytical methods into public health decision-making, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has organized seasonal influenza forecasting challenges since the 2013/2014 season. In the 2017/2018 season, 22 teams participated. A subset of four teams created a research consortium called the FluSight Network in early 2017. During the 2017/2018 season they worked together to produce a collaborative multi-model ensemble that combined 21 separate component models into a single model using a machine learning technique called stacking. This approach creates a weighted average of predictive densities where the weight for each component is determined by maximizing overall ensemble accuracy over past seasons. In the 2017/2018 influenza season, one of the largest seasonal outbreaks in the last 15 years, this multi-model ensemble performed better on average than all individual component models and placed second overall in the CDC challenge. It also outperformed the baseline multi-model ensemble created by the CDC that took a simple average of all models submitted to the forecasting challenge. This project shows that collaborative efforts between research teams to develop ensemble forecasting approaches can bring measurable improvements in forecast accuracy and important reductions in the variability of performance from year to year. Efforts such as this, that emphasize real-time testing and evaluation of forecasting models and facilitate the close collaboration between public health officials and modeling researchers, are essential to improving our understanding of how best to use forecasts to improve public health response to seasonal and emerging epidemic threats.

Over one hundred loci have been identified to be associated with the familial risk of prostate cancer but the functional effects are poorly understood. Here the authors use single-nucleotide variant and epigentic data to show an underlying genetic architecture marked by histone modification.

BACKGROUND:Clustering of breast and colorectal cancer has been observed within some families and cannot be explained by chance or known high-risk mutations in major susceptibility genes. Potential shared genetic susceptibility between breast and colorectal cancer, not explained by high-penetrance genes, has been postulated. We hypothesized that yet undiscovered genetic variants predispose to a breast-colorectal cancer phenotype. METHODS:To identify variants associated with a breast-colorectal cancer phenotype, we analyzed genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from cases and controls that met the following criteria: cases (n = 985) were women with breast cancer who had one or more first- or second-degree relatives with colorectal cancer, men/women with colorectal cancer who had one or more first- or second-degree relatives with breast cancer, and women diagnosed with both breast and colorectal cancer. Controls (n = 1769), were unrelated, breast and colorectal cancer-free, and age- and sex- frequency-matched to cases. After imputation, 6,220,060 variants were analyzed using the discovery set and variants associated with the breast-colorectal cancer phenotype at P

Regular aspirin use is associated with reduced risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Variation in aspirin's chemoprevention efficacy has been attributed to the presence of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We conducted a meta-analysis using two large population-based case-control datasets, the UK-Leeds Colorectal Cancer Study Group and the NIH-Colon Cancer Family Registry, having a combined total of 3325 cases and 2262 controls. The aim was to assess 42 candidate SNPs in 15 genes whose association with colorectal cancer risk was putatively modified by aspirin use, in the literature. Log odds ratios (ORs) and standard errors were estimated for each dataset separately using logistic regression adjusting for age, sex and study site, and dataset-specific results were combined using random effects meta-analysis. Meta-analysis showed association between SNPs rs6983267, rs11694911 and rs2302615 with CRC risk reduction (All P

BACKGROUND:The evaluation of less frequent genetic variants and their effect on complex disease pose new challenges for genomic research. To investigate whether epigenetic data can be used to inform aggregate rare-variant association methods (RVAM), we assessed whether variants more significantly associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) were preferentially located in non-coding regulatory regions, and whether enrichment was specific to colorectal tissues. METHODS:Active regulatory elements (ARE) were mapped using data from 127 tissues and cell-types from NIH Roadmap Epigenomics and Encyclopedia of DNA Elements (ENCODE) projects. We investigated whether CRC association p-values were more significant for common variants inside versus outside AREs, or 2) inside colorectal (CR) AREs versus AREs of other tissues and cell-types. We employed an integrative epigenomic RVAM for variants with allele frequency

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many genetic susceptibility loci for colorectal cancer (CRC). However, variants in these loci explain only a small proportion of familial aggregation, and there are likely additional variants that are associated with CRC susceptibility. Genome-wide studies of gene-environment interactions may identify variants that are not detected in GWAS of marginal gene effects. To study this, we conducted a genome-wide analysis for interaction between genetic variants and alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking using data from the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR) and the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO). Interactions were tested using logistic regression. We identified interaction between CRC risk and alcohol consumption and variants in the 9q22.32/HIATL1 (Pinteraction = 1.76×10-8; permuted p-value 3.51x10-8) region. Compared to non-/occasional drinking light to moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer among individuals with rs9409565 CT genotype (OR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.74-0.91]; P = 2.1×10-4) and TT genotypes (OR,0.62 [95% CI, 0.51-0.75]; P = 1.3×10-6) but not associated among those with the CC genotype (p = 0.059). No genome-wide statistically significant interactions were observed for smoking. If replicated our suggestive finding of a genome-wide significant interaction between genetic variants and alcohol consumption might contribute to understanding colorectal cancer etiology and identifying subpopulations with differential susceptibility to the effect of alcohol on CRC risk.

BackgroundObservational epidemiological studies have shown that high body mass index (BMI) is associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer in premenopausal women but an increased risk in postmenopausal women. It is unclear whether this association is mediated through shared genetic or environmental factors.MethodsWe applied Mendelian randomization to evaluate the association between BMI and risk of breast cancer occurrence using data from two large breast cancer consortia. We created a weighted BMI genetic score comprising 84 BMI-associated genetic variants to predicted BMI. We evaluated genetically predicted BMI in association with breast cancer risk using individual-level data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) (cases = 46,325, controls = 42,482). We further evaluated the association between genetically predicted BMI and breast cancer risk using summary statistics from 16,003 cases and 41,335 controls from the Discovery, Biology, and Risk of Inherited Variants in Breast Cancer (DRIVE) Project. Because most studies measured BMI after cancer diagnosis, we could not conduct a parallel analysis to adequately evaluate the association of measured BMI with breast cancer risk prospectively.ResultsIn the BCAC data, genetically predicted BMI was found to be inversely associated with breast cancer risk (odds ratio [OR] = 0.65 per 5 kg/m2 increase, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56-0.75, p = 3.32 × 10-10). The associations were similar for both premenopausal (OR = 0.44, 95% CI:0.31-0.62, p = 9.91 × 10-8) and postmenopausal breast cancer (OR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.46-0.71, p = 1.88 × 10-8). This association was replicated in the data from the DRIVE consortium (OR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.60-0.84, p = 1.64 × 10-7). Single marker analyses identified 17 of the 84 BMI-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in association with breast cancer risk at p ConclusionsBMI predicted by genome-wide association studies (GWAS)-identified variants is inversely associated with the risk of both pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer. The reduced risk of postmenopausal breast cancer associated with genetically predicted BMI observed in this study differs from the positive association reported from studies using measured adult BMI. Understanding the reasons for this discrepancy may reveal insights into the complex relationship of genetic determinants of body weight in the etiology of breast cancer.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with colorectal cancer risk. These SNPs may tag correlated variants with biological importance. Fine-mapping around GWAS loci can facilitate detection of functional candidates and additional independent risk variants. We analyzed 11,900 cases and 14,311 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium and the Colon Cancer Family Registry. To fine-map genomic regions containing all known common risk variants, we imputed high-density genetic data from the 1000 Genomes Project. We tested single-variant associations with colorectal tumor risk for all variants spanning genomic regions 250-kb upstream or downstream of 31 GWAS-identified SNPs (index SNPs). We queried the University of California, Santa Cruz Genome Browser to examine evidence for biological function. Index SNPs did not show the strongest association signals with colorectal tumor risk in their respective genomic regions. Bioinformatics analysis of SNPs showing smaller P-values in each region revealed 21 functional candidates in 12 loci (5q31.1, 8q24, 11q13.4, 11q23, 12p13.32, 12q24.21, 14q22.2, 15q13, 18q21, 19q13.1, 20p12.3, and 20q13.33). We did not observe evidence of additional independent association signals in GWAS-identified regions. Our results support the utility of integrating data from comprehensive fine-mapping with expanding publicly available genomic databases to help clarify GWAS associations and identify functional candidates that warrant more onerous laboratory follow-up. Such efforts may aid the eventual discovery of disease-causing variant(s).

Increasing evidence suggests that prostatic inflammation plays a key role in the development of prostate cancer. It remains controversial whether non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) reduce the risk of prostate cancer. Here, we investigate how a previously reported inverse association between NSAID use and the risk of aggressive prostate cancer is modulated by variants in several inflammatory genes. We found that NSAIDs may have differential effects on prostate cancer development, depending on one’s genetic makeup. Further study of these inflammatory pathways may clarify the mechanisms through which NSAIDs impact prostate cancer risk.

Height has an extremely polygenic pattern of inheritance. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed hundreds of common variants that are associated with human height at genome-wide levels of significance. However, only a small fraction of phenotypic variation can be explained by the aggregate of these common variants. In a large study of African-American men and women (n = 14,419), we genotyped and analyzed 966,578 autosomal SNPs across the entire genome using a linear mixed model variance components approach implemented in the program GCTA (Yang et al Nat Genet 2010), and estimated an additive heritability of 44.7% (se: 3.7%) for this phenotype in a sample of evidently unrelated individuals. While this estimated value is similar to that given by Yang et al in their analyses, we remain concerned about two related issues: (1) whether in the complete absence of hidden relatedness, variance components methods have adequate power to estimate heritability when a very large number of SNPs are used in the analysis; and (2) whether estimation of heritability may be biased, in real studies, by low levels of residual hidden relatedness. We addressed the first question in a semi-analytic fashion by directly simulating the distribution of the score statistic for a test of zero heritability with and without low levels of relatedness. The second question was addressed by a very careful comparison of the behavior of estimated heritability for both observed (self-reported) height and simulated phenotypes compared to imputation R2 as a function of the number of SNPs used in the analysis. These simulations help to address the important question about whether today's GWAS SNPs will remain useful for imputing causal variants that are discovered using very large sample sizes in future studies of height, or whether the causal variants themselves will need to be genotyped de novo in order to build a prediction model that ultimately captures a large fraction of the variability of height, and by implication other complex phenotypes. Our overall conclusions are that when study sizes are quite large (5,000 or so) the additive heritability estimate for height is not apparently biased upwards using the linear mixed model; however there is evidence in our simulation that a very large number of causal variants (many thousands) each with very small effect on phenotypic variance will need to be discovered to fill the gap between the heritability explained by known versus unknown causal variants. We conclude that today's GWAS data will remain useful in the future for causal variant prediction, but that finding the causal variants that need to be predicted may be extremely laborious.

The biologic aggressiveness of prostate tumors is an important indicator of prognosis. Chromosome 7g32-q33 was recently reported to show linkage to more aggressive prostate cancer, based on Gleason score, in a large sibling pair study. We report confirmation and narrowing of the linked region using finer-scale genotyping. We also report a high frequency of allelic imbalance. (AI) defined within this locus in a series of 48 primary prostate tumors from men unselected for family history or disease status. The highest frequency of AI was observed with adjacent markers D7S2531. (52%) and D7S1804. (36%). These two markers delineated a common region of AI, with 24 tumors exhibiting interstitial AI involving one or both markers. The 1.1-Mb candidate region contains relatively few transcripts. Additionally, we observed positive associations between interstitial AI at D7S1804 and early age at diagnosis. (P=.03) as well as a high combined Gleason score and tumor stage. (P=.06). Interstitial AI at D7S2531 was associated with a positive family history of prostate cancer. (P=.05). These data imply that we have localized a prostate cancer tumor aggressiveness loci to chromosome 7832-q33 that is involved in familial and nonfamilial forms of prostate cancer.

Dietary factors, including meat, fruits, vegetables and fiber, are associated with colorectal cancer; however, there is limited information as to whether these dietary factors interact with genetic variants to modify risk of colorectal cancer. We tested interactions between these dietary factors and approximately 2.7 million genetic variants for colorectal cancer risk among 9,287 cases and 9,117 controls from ten studies. We used logistic regression to investigate multiplicative gene-diet interactions, as well as our recently developed Cocktail method that involves a screening step based on marginal associations and gene-diet correlations and a testing step for multiplicative interactions, while correcting for multiple testing using weighted hypothesis testing. Per quartile increment in the intake of red and processed meat were associated with statistically significant increased risks of colorectal cancer and vegetable, fruit and fiber intake with lower risks. From the case-control analysis, we detected a significant interaction between rs4143094 (10p14/near GATA3) and processed meat consumption (OR = 1.17; p = 8.7E-09), which was consistently observed across studies (p heterogeneity = 0.78). The risk of colorectal cancer associated with processed meat was increased among individuals with the rs4143094-TG and -TT genotypes (OR = 1.20 and OR = 1.39, respectively) and null among those with the GG genotype (OR = 1.03). Our results identify a novel gene-diet interaction with processed meat for colorectal cancer, highlighting that diet may modify the effect of genetic variants on disease risk, which may have important implications for prevention.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of colorectal cancer (CRC) have led to the identification of a number of common variants associated with modest risk. Several risk variants map within the vicinity of TGFβ/BMP signaling pathway genes, including rs4939827 within an intron of SMAD7 at 18q21.1. A previous study implicated a novel SNP (novel 1 or rs58920878) as a functional variant within an enhancer element in SMAD7 intron 4. In this study, we show that four SNPs including novel 1 (rs6507874, rs6507875, rs8085824, and rs58920878) in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with the index SNP rs4939827 demonstrate allele-specific enhancer effects in a large, multi-component enhancer of SMAD7. All four SNPs demonstrate allele-specific protein binding to nuclear extracts of CRC cell lines. Furthermore, some of the risk-associated alleles correlate with increased expression of SMAD7 in normal colon tissues. Finally, we show that the enhancer is responsive to BMP4 stimulation. Taken together, we propose that the associated CRC risk at 18q21.1 is due to four functional variants that regulate SMAD7 expression and potentially perturb a BMP negative feedback loop in TGFβ/BMP signaling pathways.

In the last four years, Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) have identified sixteen low-penetrance polymorphisms on fourteen different loci associated with colorectal cancer (CRC). Due to the low risks conferred by known common variants, most of the 35% broad-sense heritability estimated by twin studies remains unexplained. Recently our group performed a case-control study for eight Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) in 4 CRC genes. The present investigation is a follow-up of that study. We have genotyped six SNPs that showed a positive association and carried out a meta-analysis based on eight additional studies comprising in total more than 8000 cases and 6000 controls. The estimated recessive odds ratio for one of the SNPs, rs3219489 (MUTYH Q338H), decreased from 1.52 in the original Swedish study, to 1.18 in the Swedish replication, and to 1.08 in the initial meta-analysis. Since the corresponding summary probability value was 0.06, we decided to retrieve additional information for this polymorphism. The incorporation of six further studies resulted in around 13000 cases and 13000 controls. The newly updated OR was 1.03. The results from the present large, multicenter study illustrate the possibility of decreasing effect sizes with increasing samples sizes. Phenotypic heterogeneity, differential environmental exposures, and population specific linkage disequilibrium patterns may explain the observed difference of genetic effects between Sweden and the other investigated cohorts.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 19 risk variants associated with colorectal cancer. As most of these risk variants reside outside the coding regions of genes, we conducted cis-expression quantitative trait loci (cis-eQTL) analyses to investigate possible regulatory functions on the expression of neighboring genes. Forty microsatellite stable and CpG island methylator phenotype-negative colorectal tumors and paired adjacent normal colon tissues were used for genome-wide SNP and gene expression profiling. We found that three risk variants (rs10795668, rs4444235 and rs9929218, using near perfect proxies rs706771, rs11623717 and rs2059252, respectively) were significantly associated (FDR q-value ≤0.05) with expression levels of nearby genes (

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have successfully identified a number of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. However, these susceptibility loci known today explain only a small fraction of the genetic risk. Gene-gene interaction (GxG) is considered to be one source of the missing heritability. To address this, we performed a genome-wide search for pair-wise GxG associated with CRC risk using 8,380 cases and 10,558 controls in the discovery phase and 2,527 cases and 2,658 controls in the replication phase. We developed a simple, but powerful method for testing interaction, which we term the Average Risk Due to Interaction (ARDI). With this method, we conducted a genome-wide search to identify SNPs showing evidence for GxG with previously identified CRC susceptibility loci from 14 independent regions. We also conducted a genome-wide search for GxG using the marginal association screening and examining interaction among SNPs that pass the screening threshold (p

Prostate cancer is the most frequent and second most lethal cancer in men in the United States. Innate immunity and inflammation may increase the risk of prostate cancer. To determine the role of innate immunity and inflammation in advanced prostate cancer, we investigated the association of 320 single nucleotide polymorphisms, located in 46 genes involved in this pathway, with disease risk using 494 cases with advanced disease and 536 controls from Cleveland, Ohio. Taken together, the whole pathway was associated with advanced prostate cancer risk (P = 0.02). Two sub-pathways (intracellular antiviral molecules and extracellular pattern recognition) and four genes in these sub-pathways (TLR1, TLR6, OAS1, and OAS2) were nominally associated with advanced prostate cancer risk and harbor several SNPs nominally associated with advanced prostate cancer risk. Our results suggest that the innate immunity and inflammation pathway may play a modest role in the etiology of advanced prostate cancer through multiple small effects.

A substantial proportion of familial colorectal cancer (CRC) is not a consequence of known susceptibility loci, such as mismatch repair (MMR) genes, supporting the existence of additional loci. To identify novel CRC loci, we conducted a genome-wide linkage scan in 356 white families with no evidence of defective MMR (i.e., no loss of tumor expression of MMR proteins, no microsatellite instability (MSI)-high tumors, or no evidence of linkage to MMR genes). Families were ascertained via the Colon Cancer Family Registry multi-site NCI-supported consortium (Colon CFR), the City of Hope Comprehensive Cancer Center, and Memorial University of Newfoundland. A total of 1,612 individuals (average 5.0 per family including 2.2 affected) were genotyped using genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism linkage arrays; parametric and non-parametric linkage analysis used MERLIN in a priori-defined family groups. Five lod scores greater than 3.0 were observed assuming heterogeneity. The greatest were among families with mean age of diagnosis less than 50 years at 4q21.1 (dominant HLOD = 4.51, α = 0.84, 145.40 cM, rs10518142) and among all families at 12q24.32 (dominant HLOD = 3.60, α = 0.48, 285.15 cM, rs952093). Among families with four or more affected individuals and among clinic-based families, a common peak was observed at 15q22.31 (101.40 cM, rs1477798; dominant HLOD = 3.07, α = 0.29; dominant HLOD = 3.03, α = 0.32, respectively). Analysis of families with only two affected individuals yielded a peak at 8q13.2 (recessive HLOD = 3.02, α = 0.51, 132.52 cM, rs1319036). These previously unreported linkage peaks demonstrate the continued utility of family-based data in complex traits and suggest that new CRC risk alleles remain to be elucidated.

Adult height is a classic polygenic trait of high heritability (h(2) approximately 0.8). More than 180 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), identified mostly in populations of European descent, are associated with height. These variants convey modest effects and explain approximately10% of the variance in height. Discovery efforts in other populations, while limited, have revealed loci for height not previously implicated in individuals of European ancestry. Here, we performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association (GWA) results for adult height in 20,427 individuals of African ancestry with replication in up to 16,436 African Americans. We found two novel height loci (Xp22-rs12393627, P = 3.4×10(-12) and 2p14-rs4315565, P = 1.2×10(-8)). As a group, height associations discovered in European-ancestry samples replicate in individuals of African ancestry (P = 1.7×10(-4) for overall replication). Fine-mapping of the European height loci in African-ancestry individuals showed an enrichment of SNPs that are associated with expression of nearby genes when compared to the index European height SNPs (P

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 14 tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tagSNPs) that are associated with the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), and several of these tagSNPs are near bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) pathway loci. The penalty of multiple testing implicit in GWAS increases the attraction of complementary approaches for disease gene discovery, including candidate gene- or pathway-based analyses. The strongest candidate loci for additional predisposition SNPs are arguably those already known both to have functional relevance and to be involved in disease risk. To investigate this proposition, we searched for novel CRC susceptibility variants close to the BMP pathway genes GREM1 (15q13.3), BMP4 (14q22.2), and BMP2 (20p12.3) using sample sets totalling 24,910 CRC cases and 26,275 controls. We identified new, independent CRC predisposition SNPs close to BMP4 (rs1957636, P = 3.93×10(-10)) and BMP2 (rs4813802, P = 4.65×10(-11)). Near GREM1, we found using fine-mapping that the previously-identified association between tagSNP rs4779584 and CRC actually resulted from two independent signals represented by rs16969681 (P = 5.33×10(-8)) and rs11632715 (P = 2.30×10(-10)). As low-penetrance predisposition variants become harder to identify-owing to small effect sizes and/or low risk allele frequencies-approaches based on informed candidate gene selection may become increasingly attractive. Our data emphasise that genetic fine-mapping studies can deconvolute associations that have arisen owing to independent correlation of a tagSNP with more than one functional SNP, thus explaining some of the apparently missing heritability of common diseases.

GWAS of prostate cancer have been remarkably successful in revealing common genetic variants and novel biological pathways that are linked with its etiology. A more complete understanding of inherited susceptibility to prostate cancer in the general population will come from continuing such discovery efforts and from testing known risk alleles in diverse racial and ethnic groups. In this large study of prostate cancer in African American men (3,425 prostate cancer cases and 3,290 controls), we tested 49 risk variants located in 28 genomic regions identified through GWAS in men of European and Asian descent, and we replicated associations (at p≤0.05) with roughly half of these markers. Through fine-mapping, we identified nearby markers in many regions that better define associations in African Americans. At 8q24, we found 9 variants (p≤6×10(-4)) that best capture risk of prostate cancer in African Americans, many of which are more common in men of African than European descent. The markers found to be associated with risk at each locus improved risk modeling in African Americans (per allele OR = 1.17) over the alleles reported in the original GWAS (OR = 1.08). In summary, in this detailed analysis of the prostate cancer risk loci reported from GWAS, we have validated and improved upon markers of risk in some regions that better define the association with prostate cancer in African Americans. Our findings with variants at 8q24 also reinforce the importance of this region as a major risk locus for prostate cancer in men of African ancestry.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

Ribonuclease L (RNase L) is an important effector of the innate antiviral response. Mutations or variants that impair function of RNase L, particularly R462Q, have been proposed as susceptibility factors for prostate cancer. Given the role of this gene in viral defense, we sought to explore the possibility that a viral infection might contribute to prostate cancer in individuals harboring the R462Q variant. A viral detection DNA microarray composed of oligonucleotides corresponding to the most conserved sequences of all known viruses identified the presence of gammaretroviral sequences in cDNA samples from seven of 11 R462Q-homozygous (QQ) cases, and in one of eight heterozygous (RQ) and homozygous wild-type (RR) cases. An expanded survey of 86 tumors by specific RT-PCR detected the virus in eight of 20 QQ cases (40%), compared with only one sample (1.5%) among 66 RQ and RR cases. The full-length viral genome was cloned and sequenced independently from three positive QQ cases. The virus, named XMRV, is closely related to xenotropic murine leukemia viruses (MuLVs), but its sequence is clearly distinct from all known members of this group. Comparison of gag and pol sequences from different tumor isolates suggested infection with the same virus in all cases, yet sequence variation was consistent with the infections being independently acquired. Analysis of prostate tissues from XMRV-positive cases by in situ hybridization and immunohistochemistry showed that XMRV nucleic acid and protein can be detected in about 1% of stromal cells, predominantly fibroblasts and hematopoietic elements in regions adjacent to the carcinoma. These data provide to our knowledge the first demonstration that xenotropic MuLV-related viruses can produce an authentic human infection, and strongly implicate RNase L activity in the prevention or clearance of infection in vivo. These findings also raise questions about the possible relationship between exogenous infection and cancer development in genetically susceptible individuals.