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At active volcanoes, distinct eruptions are preceded by complex and different precursory patterns; in addition, there are precursory signals that do not necessarily lead to an eruption. The main purpose of this paper is to present an unprecedented application of the recently developed code named BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree_Eruption Forecasting) to the quantitative estimate of the eruptive hazard at Mt. Etna volcano. We tested the model for the case history of the July-August 2001 flank eruption. Anomalies in geophysical, geochemical and volcanological monitoring parameters were observed more than a month in advance of the effective onset of the eruption. As a consequence, eruption probabilities larger than 90% were estimated. An important feature of the application of BET_EF to Mt. Etna was the probabilistic estimate of opening vent locations. The methodology allowed a clear identification of assumptions and the monitoring of parameter thresholds and provided rational means for their revision if new data or information are incoming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Major results of post-intrusive GPS monitoring of the 5 months encompassing and following the onset of 2002–03 Mt. Etna eruption are presented and discussed here. The overall ground deformation pattern is characterized by a time-dependent relaxation function. We evaluated two different parametrizations of relaxation functions, each one linked to a different relaxation process: i) viscoelastic relaxation and ii) after-slip mechanism. The former indicated that the process occurred within a weak layer characterized by viscosity values ranging between 7.1 · 1014 Pa s and 1.3 · 1015 Pa s. The latter evidenced that frictional processes occurred beneath a layer of velocity-strengthening having a thickness with values ranging between 0.4 km and 1.7 km. Either model may explain the observed time-dependent deformation, both from the statistical point of view and the comparison with geologic and seismic information. Although we are unable to favour one model rather than the other, these results indicate that the mechanism, responsible for the observed post-intrusive deformation, occurs within a sliding “zone” located inside the clayey sedimentary basement. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

On July 18, 2001, two main eruptive vents opened on the southern flank of Mount Etna volcano (Italy) at ∼2100 m and ∼2550 m a.s.l., respectively. The former vent fed mild strombolian activity and lava flows, while the latter represented the main explosive vent, producing strong phreato-magmatic explosions. Explosions at this latter vent, however, shifted to a strombolian style in the following days, before switching back to phreato-magmatic activity towards the end of the eruption, which ended on August 9, 2001.On August 3, a small seismoacoustic array was deployed close to the eruptive vents. The array was composed of three stations, which recorded seismic and infrasonic waves coming from both of the eruptive vents. A further seismoacoustic station, equipped with a thermal-infrared sensor, was also installed several kilometers north of the first array. Seismic signals relating to the strombolian activity at the 2100-m vent were characterized by a strong decompression at the source. Analysis of the time delays between seismic, infrasonic and infrared event onsets also revealed that ejection velocities during explosions from both vents were subsonic. Time delays between the onset of explosive events apparent in the infrared and infrasound data indicated that the explosion source at the 2550-m vent was located 220–250 m below the crater rim. In comparison, the depth of the seismic source was estimated to be between 230 and 335 m below the rim. This converts to 120–150 and 130–235 m below the preexisting ground surface. In addition, time delays between seismic and infrasonic signals recorded for the lower (2100 m) vent also revealed a seismic source that was no more than a few tens of meters deeper than the fragmentation surface. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We analyzed about 150 local earthquakes recorded in Southeastern Sicily from 1994 to 2001 and estimated coda-Q, intrinsic and scattering attenuation. We used the single scattering assumption to fit the amplitude envelopes of the coda at different frequency bands, obtaining a Qc varying with frequency as generally observed in tectonically active areas. Lapse time dependence has been also studied for the area, with the coda waves analyzed at window lengths ranging from 15 to 50 s, provided the coda duration permitted it. We found that Q0 (Qc at 1 Hz) increases with lapse time and we interpreted this as due to increasing Qc with depth. Conversely, the frequency dependence coefficient n is mostly stationary at all the lapse time window lengths.Finally, using the independent estimates of Qc and the total Q (QT) previously obtained for the area by other authors from direct S-waves of the same data set, we separated the intrinsic (Qi-1) from the scattering (Qsc-1) attenuation factor. The results suggest that in Southeastern Sicily intrinsic dissipation plays a predominant role with respect to scattering phenomena. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The beginning of the 1991–1993 large eruption at Mt. Etna was marked by a seismic swarm and a sudden increase of volcanic tremor amplitude. Several earthquakes were recognized as clusters of shallow events with nearly identical waveforms (multiplets). We have analyzed these signals with a cross-spectral technique that allows us to locate the relative position of the events within a multiplet, obtaining a precision higher than with traditional routines. The relocated shocks occurred some kilometers away from the propagating eruptive fracture, east of both the summit craters and the modeled eruptive dykes. They clustered in a relatively small volume, elongated in the NNW–SSE direction, the depth of which ranged from about 1100 to 2000 m below sea level. These earthquakes are interpreted as the passive brittle response of the volcanic basement to the intrusion of the eruptive dyke, rather than being directly linked to the magma transport. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The attenuation of P- and S-waves in Southeastern Sicily was estimated by applying two different methods in time and frequency domains. We analyzed waveforms from about 290 local events (0.6≤ML≤4.6) recorded at a three-component digital network.By applying the pulse broadening method to the first P-wave pulse, we found an average Qp value of ca. 140. The application of the frequency decay method provided a Qp value of ca. 120, in the low-frequency band (3–9 Hz). Conversely, in the high frequency range (16–27 Hz) the average Qp is significantly larger (ca. 640). The frequency decay method was also applied to S-waves spectra. In the low frequency range (2–5 Hz) the estimated average Qs is ca. 190. As for Qp, also Qs, in the high frequency range (16–27 Hz), is larger (ca. 700). These results evidenced a frequency dependence of both the quality factors Qp and Qs, as commonly observed in tectonically active zones characterized by high degree of heterogeneity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In the last 30years, numerous eruptions and associated deformation episodes have occurred at Mt. Etna volcano. Datasets recorded by continuous monitoring of these episodes provide a unique opportunity to study the relationships between volcanism, flank instability and faulting activity. We have investigated the stress triggering mechanism between magmatic reservoir inflation, intrusive episodes and flank dynamics. Using three-dimensional numerical Boundary Elements Models we simulated volcano-tectonic events and calculated Coulomb stress changes. Using this modeling approach, we analyzed four realistic scenarios that are representative of recent kinematics occurring at Mt. Etna. The main results obtained highlight how (1) the inflation of a deep spherical magma source transfers elastic stress to a sliding plane and faults, (2) the opening of the NE Rift and S Rift (to a less efficient extent) favors movements of the instable sector and may encourage seismicity on the eastern flank faults, and (3) flank instability may trigger the uprising of magma. Defining the effects of the elastic stress transfer and relationships among the main forces acting on volcano, may help to forecast possible eruption scenarios during future episodes of unrest at Mount Etna and provide an important tool for decision makers during volcanic emergencies involving the highly populated areas of the volcano. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Combined GPS measurements and radar interferometry (InSAR) have been applied at Mt. Etna to study the ground deformation affecting the volcano both over the long- (1993–2000) and short-term (1997–1998 and 1998–2000). The aim was to better understand the dynamics of the volcano during the magma-recharging phase following the 1991–93 eruption. Since 1993, InSAR and GPS data indicate that Mt. Etna has undergone an inflation. A deep intrusion was detected by InSAR, on the western flank of the volcano, between March and May 1997. In the following months, this intrusion rose up leading to a seismic swarm occurring in January 1998 in the western sector. This now shallow intrusion is confirmed by GPS data. From 1998 to 2000, a general deflation affecting the upper part of the volcano was detected. Over the whole study period, a continuous eastward to south-eastward motion of the eastern sector of the volcano was also evidenced. The analytical inversions of GPS data inferred a plane dipping about 12°ESE, located beneath the eastern flank of the volcano at a depth of 1.4 km b.s.l. The movement along this plane is able to reproduce the observed south-eastward motion of a sector bounded northward by the Pernicana fault, westward by the North–East Rift and the South Rift, and southward by the Mascalucia–Tremestieri–Trecastagni fault system. InSAR data have validated this model. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We have studied the volcanic tremor recorded at Mt. Etna during January–June 1999, by using three-component seismic stations. This time period was characterised by both explosive and effusive eruptions occurring at the summit craters. We found significant time variations in the trend of the overall spectral amplitude of tremor, as well as in the dominant spectral peaks. Moreover, the tremor wavefield features (polarization, particle motion and ratios between the amplitude of the three components of the ground velocity) have been studied too, confirming significant time variations. This leads us to suggest the existence of at least two tremor sources: a shallow one, mainly characterised by relatively high frequencies (3.5–7 Hz), is linked to the upper portions of the active conduits, and directly related to the observed eruptive activity. The latter deeper source was active for only a few weeks, and characterised by frequencies lower than about 2.5 Hz. It had no relationship with the observed eruptive activity, and was speculatively related to the gas exsolution from fresh magma refilling a small batch. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A seismic array of 11 stations maintained for 9 years—from 1985 to 1994—provided data that were exploited for the investigation of the 3-D structure of the upper crust in the Gioia Tauro basin, south-western Calabria, Italy. A data set of 207 local earthquakes that were located with a minimum of seven observations, a traveltime residual of ≤0.3 s rms and an azimuthal gap ≤180° was used to compute first a minimum 1-D velocity model for the Gioia Tauro region, which served as initial model for the subsequent 3-D inversion. The inversion for 3-D P-velocity crustal structure was performed by iteratively solving the coupled hypocentre-velocity problem in a least-squares sense. Careful analysis of the resolution capability of our data set outlines the well-resolved features for interpretation. The resulting 3-D velocity model of the Gioia Tauro region shows, in the upper crust, generally higher average velocities in the south and lower average velocities in the north. A pronounced northeast-southwest trending zone of low velocities in the upper 12 km was identified in the area of the Cittanova fault zone (CFZ). Because of the limited dimensions of the seismic array the half graben of Gioia Tauro basin could not be recognized in the tomographic images. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic wave attenuation in southeastern Sicily was investigated by using a data set of about 180 local earthquakes recorded in the period 1994–2003. We first estimated the quality factor of S waves and clarified its frequency dependence by means of the coda-normalization method, applied in the frequency range 1.5–15 Hz. The average as function of frequency is given by . A detailed separation of scattering attenuation from intrinsic absorption was also attempted by applying the multiple lapse time window analysis (MLTWA), under the hypothesis of multiple isotropic scattering with uniform distribution of scatterers. Intrinsic absorption dominates over scattering in the attenuation process at high frequencies (above 3 Hz). Below 3 Hz scattering is the predominant attenuation effect in the region, at the scale length of these frequencies. However, some discrepancies have been observed between the theoretical model and the observations. This indicates that models with depth-dependent velocity structure and/or non isotropic scattering should be taken into account in order to remove ambiguities in the interpretation of the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An investigation was undertaken at St. Agata la Vetere church in Catania, dating back to 333 D.C, in order to obtain essential information for the planned restoration works. In fact, the 1693 earthquake totally destroyed both the church and the adjoining monastery, which when rebuilt changed their original appearance enormously. As a preliminary step, a mineralogic petrographic characterization of the materials was carried out. Optical Microscopy (OM), X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and Thermo-Gravimetric (TG) analyses were performed on samples of bricks, plasters and mortars. At the same time, ground penetrating radar (GPR) investigations allowed a series of anomalies in the soils to be discovered which can be attributed to the presence of buried structures under the pavement of the church. Lastly, by collecting and collectively interpreting all the results obtained by in situ drillings and tomographic prospections, it was possible to reproduce the substratum behaviour and to localise areas with electric anomalies confirming the existence of hidden structures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The pattern of volcanic tremor accompanying the 1989 September eruption at the south-east summit crater of Mount Etna is studied. In specific, sixteen episodes of lava fountaining, which occurred in the first phase of the eruption, are analysed. Their periodic behaviour, also evidenced by autocorrelation, allows us to define the related tremor amplitude increases as intermittent volcanic tremor episodes. Focusing on the regular intermittent behaviour found for both lava fountains and intermittent volcanic tremors, we tried an a posteriori forecast using simple statistical methods based on linear regression and the Student’ t-test. We performed the retrospective statistical forecast, and found that several eruptions would have been successfully forecast. In order to focus on the source mechanism of tremor linked to lava fountains, we investigated the relationship between volcanic and seismic parameters. A mechanism based on a shallow magma batch ‘regularly’ refilled from depth is suggested. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The mechanism of seismic attenuation for shear waves was studied through the separate measure of the intrinsic dissipation and scattering coefficients. A modified version of the Multiple Lapse Time Window Analysis (MLTWA) was applied to about 5000 local earthquakes with magnitude 1.5 ≤ Ml ≤ 4.8 occurred in the period 2006–2017 in both the tectonic (Peloritani Mountains and Hyblean Plateau) and volcanic (Aeolian Islands and Mt Etna) areas of eastern Sicily. Observed data, processed via direct Fourier Transform instead of the filtering and averaging procedures utilized in the ordinary MLTWA technique, were fit to the correspondent Paasschens solution of the Energy Transport model in 3D. Model parameters B 0, the seismic albedo, and Le , the extinction length, in turn associated with the intrinsic (Qi) and scattering (Qs) quality factors for S waves, are thus obtained from the fit in the frequency bands centred at 1.5, 3, 6 and 12 Hz. Finally, the corrections to these estimates in case of an opaque layer (the crust) overlying a uniform and transparent mantle, were applied in order to obtain more realistic estimates of the seismic attenuation in the areas investigated. Obtained results are first interpreted in terms of the characteristics of each domain and then compared by the same point of view with a huge set of measurements of the same parameters carried out in other tectonic and volcanic domains through the world. Results show how the rock heterogeneity characterizes the tectonic domain and determines the value of total attenuation coefficient, which, on the other hand, is a crucial parameter in the estimation of the seismic hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On December 13th 1990 a magnitude 5.6 seismic event, felt throughout Sicily, and having maximum seismic intensity VII-VIII, occurred. Although, it is classified as moderate magnitude, it caused causalities and the collapse of a few buildings. Two of the most struck cities were Carlentini and Lentini, located in south-eastern Sicily at about 20 km from the instrumental epicenter. In order to evaluate the influence of ground features on the damage distribution, both vulnerability and damage maps were drawn using information collected in about 6000 forms coming from official ascertainments. Significant damage observed in some portions of the investigated areas, appears related to the modest quality of the buildings that were classified as medium to high vulnerability. To evaluate the role played by the geologic setting, two sites were instrumented to measure shear-wave velocity of the main lithotypes. Sixty-three ambient vibrations measurements were also performed both in free field and inside some buildings. Moreover, using information coming from geological and geophysical surveys, 1D numerical modelling were done to achieve information about the main ground motion parameters. The results highlight the occurrence of significant site effects and the potential presence of resonance phenomena between site and structure during the occurrence of a seismic event. Seismic site amplifications together with the buildings' vulnerability, observed through damage surveys, contributed to enhance the inherent seismic risk of the investigated area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we derived the first 3-D P-wave seismic attenuation images (QP) as well as new 3-D VP and VP/VS models for the crust in southeastern Sicily. We used a large data set of local seismic events occurring in the time span 1994-2013. The results of this tomographic study have important implications on the seismic behaviour of the region. Based on velocity and attenuation images, we identified distinct volumes characterized by different fluid content, which correlate well with seismicity distribution. Moreover, the obtained velocity and attenuation tomographies help us to provide a more complete picture of the crustal structure of the area. High VP, high QP and high VP/VS values have been obtained in the crustal basement, below a depth of 8 km, and may be interpreted as due to the presence of serpentinized peridotites. Accordingly, the new model for the degree of serpentinization, retrieved from VP values, shows that the basement has an average serpentinization value of 96 ± 3 vol.% at 8 km, decreasing to 44 ± 5 vol.% at about 18-20 km. Our joint interpretation of geophysical and petrophysical evidence suggests that the nature and composition of the Hyblean upper lithosphere may differ from accepted and longestablished geological models, which consider this lithospheric block a continuation of the Africa continental plate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies performed on Mt. Etna on short and discontinuous time intervals indicate the North East Crater (NEC) as the most active source of infrasound. The source mechanism of NEC infrasound events was modeled as a double resonance. This lead to infer the connection between the NEC and both the southeast crater (SEC) and the eruptive fissure (EF), that opened at the beginning of the 2008-2009 eruption. Nevertheless, there are still several open questions that need to be addressed. For instance, the steadiness of NEC event features should be studied, as well as the orderliness of spectral changes of NEC events time-related to eruptive activity of other vents. The investigation of such topics is strongly enhanced by the possibility of analysing infrasound signals during year-long time periods. With this aim about 40,000 infrasound events, recorded at Mt. Etna from August 2007 to December 2009 were analysed by using spectral and location techniques. It was noted in particular that the NEC events featured periods with very steady waveforms and spectral characteristics lasting from days to months with slow or sudden variations. The most important eruptive episodes occurring at the SEC or the EF were accompanied by significant spectral changes in NEC events. In light of such systematic behaviour the connection between the NEC and the SEC/EF plumbing systems was not considered temporary but rather stable even during a relatively long time interval (2006-2009). Moreover, study of NEC event spectral features and their changes over multiple years supports the double resonance source model. Such a model, together with the inferred connections between NEC and SEC/EF feeding systems, implies that level fluctuations of a magma column inside the NEC conduit correspond to magmastatic pressure decrease/increase inside the main plumbing system. These findings open up new and interesting possibilities for monitoring magma pressure changes inside the Mt. Etna plumbing system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyzed digital seismic records in order to extend back in time the catalog of regional centroid moment tensors (RCMTs) for the Cyprus region. We applied the analysis and inversion methodology also used for the present-day seismicity on seismograms recorded at regional distance. We computed 18 new regional CMTs of earthquakes of moderate magnitude (4.8 ≤ M ≤ 5.5) which occurred in the Cyprus region for the time span 1977-1996. These new focal mechanisms improved the knowledge given by the previously computed solutions carried out by other institutions, as well as the dataset of available earthquake source parameters. The complete focal mechanism database contributed to better define the deformation styles in the study area and to obtain a detailed characterization of the geodynamics of the Cyprus area. New RCMTs support the hypothesis that Cyprus is located in the middle of the transition area from subduction to continental collision along the Africa-Arabian-Eurasian boundary. In particular, data confirm (a) this transition zone is strictly located west of Cyprus, probably related to a tear in the subduction system, and (b) the still active compression in the Cyprus Arc can be seen as a starting point of the continental collision eastward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ive volcanoes characterized by open conduit conditions generate sonic and infrasonic signals, whose investigation provides useful information for both monitoring purposes and studying the dynamics of explosive processes. In this work, we discuss the automatic procedures implemented for a real-time application to the data acquired by a permanent network of five infrasound stations running at Mt. Etna volcano. The infrasound signals at Mt. Etna consist in amplitude transients, called infrasound events. The adopted procedure uses a multi-algorithm approach for event detection, counting, characterization and location. It is designed for an efficient and accurate processing of infrasound records provided by single-site and array stations. Moreover, the source mechanism of these events can be investigated off-line or in near real-time by using three different models: (1) Strombolian bubble; (2) resonating conduit and (3) Helmholtz resonator. The infrasound waveforms allow us to choose the most suitable model, to get quantitative information about the source and to follow the time evolution of the source parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Almost 50,000 long period (LP) events were recorded at Mt. Etna from November 2003 to May 2006. We analysed these events, as well as very long period (VLP) events which were associated with some of them. During some intervals the spectral and wavefield features of LP events remained steady, with significant changes occurring between the intervals. Based on the times of the changes, we distinguish five different sub-periods. In particular, during sub-period III (June–November 2005) the wavefield at the stations nearest to the summit area was composed of P waves. Locations for 150 LP events occurring in sub-period III, determined using radial semblance, changed, at the same time as the events'' spectral features changed. It was during this sub-period that many of the LP events were associated with VLP events. Based on similarity of the waveforms, we distinguished two families of VLP events, with gradually evolving waveforms. The two families are located in slightly different places, but near the sources of the LP events. The change between the families occurred at the same time as the spectra of the LP events changed. Finally the source of the VLP events was investigated by performing complete waveform moment tensor inversion of stacks of the two families. Synthetic Green''s functions for the full moment tensor were calculated for a homogeneous half-space. For both families, the source region with the highest variance reduction lies approximately beneath the active craters, at 500m below the altitudes of the stations. The solutions for both families are very similar with sources that are between 60 and 70% isotropic. Attempts to determine deviatoric moment tensors produced consistently poorer fits. The remaining energy is poorly constrained and is likely to be noise. In conclusion, these results highlight changes in the LP and VLP events at Mt. Etna over time, and the causal relationship between them. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: During 1999, the volcanic activity at Mt. Etna was both explosive and effusive at the summit craters: Strombolian activity, lava fountains and lava flows affected different areas of the volcano, involving three of the four summit craters. Results from analysis of the 1999 volcanic tremor features are shown at two different time scales. First, the long-term time variation of the features of the volcanic tremor (including spectral and polarization parameters), during the entire year, was compared with the evolution of the eruptive activity. This approach demonstrated the good agreement between tremor data and observed eruptive activity; the activation of different tremor sources was suggested. Then, a more refined analysis of the volcanic tremor, recorded during 14 lava fountain eruptions, was performed. In particular, a shift of the dominant frequencies towards lower values was noted which corresponds with increasing explosive activity. Similar behaviour in the frequency content has already been observed in other explosive eruptions at Mt. Etna as well as on other volcanoes. This behaviour has been explained in terms of either an increase in the tremor source dimension or a decrease in the sound speed in the magma within the conduit. These results confirm that the volcanic tremor is a powerful tool for better understanding the physical processes controlling explosive eruptions at Mt. Etna volcano. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A geophysical survey was performed at the Roman Amphitheatre of Catania with the aim to study the lithological features of the foundation subsoil of the Amphitheatre and to identify possible underground voids, buried crypts and other heterogeneities. The survey consisted of a number of georadar prospections and of three mechanical drillings. In addition it was experimented a non-invasive technique (passive seismic stratigraphy), which allows to retrieve information on subsoil stratigraphy and on possible seismic site effects. The survey allowed to establish 1) the presence of clays below superficial lava layers in the foundation soil of the Amphitheatre, 2) the presence of 2-D structures below the external ambulatory and 3) the natural resonance frequencies of the structure and of the subsoil in the area of investigation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]