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Background: Colorectal cancer screening programmes worldwide have been disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to estimate the impact of hypothetical disruptions to organised faecal immunochemical test-based colorectal cancer screening programmes on short-term and long-term colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in three countries using microsimulation modelling. Methods: In this modelling study, we used four country-specific colorectal cancer microsimulation models–Policy1-Bowel (Australia), OncoSim (Canada), and ASCCA and MISCAN-Colon (the Netherlands)—to estimate the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to screening on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in Australia, Canada, and the Netherlands annually for the period 2020–24 and cumulatively for the period 2020–50. Modelled scenarios varied by duration of disruption (3, 6, and 12 months), decreases in screening participation after the period of disruption (0%, 25%, or 50% reduction), and catch-up screening strategies (within 6 months after the disruption period or all screening delayed by 6 months). Findings: Without catch-up screening, our analysis predicted that colorectal cancer deaths among individuals aged 50 years and older, a 3-month disruption would result in 414–902 additional new colorectal cancer diagnoses (relative increase 0·1–0·2%) and 324–440 additional deaths (relative increase 0·2–0·3%) in the Netherlands, 1672 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·3%) and 979 additional deaths (relative increase 0·5%) in Australia, and 1671 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·2%) and 799 additional deaths (relative increase 0·3%) in Canada between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. A 6-month disruption would result in 803–1803 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·2–0·4%) and 678–881 additional deaths (relative increase 0·4–0·6%) in the Netherlands, 3552 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·6%) and 1961 additional deaths (relative increase 1·0%)

Aim: To develop a decision model for the population-level evaluation of strategies to improve the selection of stage II colon cancer (CC) patients who benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: A Markov cohort model with a one-month cycle length and a lifelong time horizon was developed. Five health states were included; diagnosis, 90-day mortality, death other causes, recurrence and CC death. Data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry were used to parameterize the model. Transition probabilities were estimated using parametric survival models including relevant clinical and pathological covariates. Subsequently, biomarker status was implemented using external data. Treatment effect was incorporated using pooled trial data. Model development, data sources used, parameter estimation, and internal and external validation are described in detail. To illustrate the use of the model, three example strategies were evaluated in which allocation of treatment was based on (A) 100% adherence to the Dutch guidelines, (B) observed adherence to guideline recommendations and (C) a biomarker-driven strategy. Results: Overall, the model showed good internal and external validity. Age, tumor growth, tumor sidedness, evaluated lymph nodes, and biomarker status were included as covariates. For the example strategies, the model predicted 83, 87 and 77 CC deaths after 5 years in a cohort of 1000 patients for strategies A, B and C, respectively. Conclusion: This model can be used to evaluate strategies for the allocation of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage II CC patients. In future studies, the model will be used to estimate population-level long-term health gain and cost-effectiveness of biomarker-based selection strategies.

Background: A substantial proportion of all pheochromocytomas is currently detected during the evaluation of an adrenal incidentaloma. Recently, it has been suggested that biochemical testing to rule out pheochromocytoma is unnecessary in case of an adrenal incidentaloma with an unenhanced attenuation value ≤10Hounsfield Units (HU) at computed tomography (CT). Objectives: We aimed to determine the sensitivity of the 10HU threshold value to exclude a pheochromocytoma. Methods: Retrospective multicenter study with systematic reassessment of preoperative unenhanced CT scans performed in patients in whom a histopathologically proven pheochromocytoma had been diagnosed. Unenhanced attenuation values were determined independently by two experienced radiologists. Sensitivity of the 10HU threshold was calculated, and interobserver consistency was assessed using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Results: 214 patients were identified harboring a total number of 222 pheochromocytomas. Maximum tumor diameter was 51 (39–74)mm. The mean attenuation value within the region of interest was 36±10HU. Only one pheochromocytoma demonstrated an attenuation value ≤10HU, resulting in a sensitivity of 99.6% (95% CI: 97.5–99.9). ICC was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.75–0.86) with a standard error of measurement of 7.3HU between observers. Conclusion: The likelihood of a pheochromocytoma with an unenhanced attenuation value ≤10HU on CT is very low. The interobserver consistency in attenuation measurement is excellent. Our study supports the recommendation that in patients with an adrenal incidentaloma biochemical testing for ruling out pheochromocytoma is only indicated in adrenal tumors with an unenhanced attenuation value >10HU.

Background: No assessment of the National Bowel Screening Program (NBCSP) in Australia, which considers all downstream benefits, costs, and harms, has been done. We aimed to use a comprehensive natural history model and the most recent information about cancer treatment costs to estimate long-term benefits, costs, and harms of the NBCSP (2 yearly immunochemical faecal occult blood testing screening at age 50-74 years) and evaluat

Purpose: Pharmacokinetics of docetaxel can be measured in vivo using positron emission tomography (PET) and a microdose of radiolabeled docetaxel ([11C]docetaxel). The objective of this study was to investigate whether a [11C]docetaxel PET microdosing study could predict tumor uptake of therapeutic doses of docetaxel. Experimental Design: Docetaxel-näve lung cancer patients underwent 2 [11C]docetaxel PET scans; one after bolus injection of [11C]docetaxel and another during combined infusion of [11C]docetaxel and a therapeutic dose of docetaxel (75 mgm 2). Compartmental and spectral analyses were used to quantify [11C]docetaxel tumor kinetics. [11C]docetaxel PET measurements were used to estimate the area under the curve (AUC) of docetaxel in tumors. Tumor response was evaluated using computed tomography scans. Results: Net rates of influx (Ki) of [11C]docetaxel in tumors were comparable during microdosing and therapeutic scans. [11C]docetaxel AUCTumor during the therapeutic scan could be predicted reliably using an impulse response function derived from the microdosing scan together with the plasma curve of [11C]docetaxel during the therapeutic scan. At 90 minutes, the accumulated amount of docetaxel in tumors was less than 1% of the total infused dose of docetaxel. [11C]docetaxel Ki derived from the microdosing scan correlated with AUCTumor of docetaxel (Spearman r = 0.715; P = 0.004) during the therapeutic scan and with tumor response to docetaxel therapy (Spearman r = 0.800; P = 0.010). Conclusions: Microdosing data of [11C]docetaxel PET can be used to predict tumor uptake of docetaxel during chemotherapy. The present study provides a framework for investigating the PET microdosing concept for radiolabeled anticancer drugs in patients.