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The Blue Crab, Callinectes sapidus, is a commercially, culturally, and ecologically significant species in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), whose offshore stages were likely impacted by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DWH). To test for DWH effects and to better understand the planktonic ecology of this species, we monitored Callinectes spp. megalopal settlement and condition at sites within and outside of the spill extent during and one year after the DWH. We tested for DWH effects by comparing 2010 settlement against baseline data available for two sites, and by testing for differences in settlement and condition inside and outside of the spill extent. We also developed time series models to better understand natural drivers of daily settlement variation (seasonal and lunar trends, hydrodynamics, wind) during 2010 and 2011. Overall, we found that neither megalopal settlement nor body weight were significantly reduced at oiled sites, but that high unexplained variation and low statistical power made detection of even large effects unlikely. Time series models revealed remarkably consistent and relatively strong seasonal and lunar trends within sites (explaining on average 28% and 9% of variation, respectively), while wind and hydrodynamic effects were weak (1–5% variation explained) and variable among sites. This study provides insights into DWH impacts as well as the natural drivers of Callinectes spp. megalopal settlement across the northern GOM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim In terrestrial plant communities, the relationship between native species diversity and exotic success is typically scale-dependent. It is often proposed that within local neighbourhoods, high native diversity limits resources, thereby inhibiting exotic success. However, environmental variation that manifests over space or time can create positive correlations between native diversity and exotic success at larger scales. In marine habitats, there have been few multi-scale surveys of this pattern, so it is unclear how diversity, resource limitation and the environment influence the success of exotic species in these systems. Location Washington, USA. Methods I analysed nested spatial and temporal surveys of fouling communities, which are assemblages of sessile marine invertebrates, to test whether the relationships between native richness, resource availability and exotic cover supported the diversity-stability and diversity-resistance theories, to test whether these relationships changed with spatio-temporal scale, and to explore the temperature preferences of native and exotic fouling species. Results Survey data failed to support diversity-stability theory: space availability actually increased with native richness at the local neighbourhood scale, and neither space availability nor variability decreased with native richness across larger spatio-temporal scales. I did find support for diversity-resistance theory, as richness negatively correlated with exotic cover in local neighbourhoods. Unexpectedly, this negative correlation disappeared at intermediate scales, but emerged again at the regional scale. This scale-dependent pattern could be partially explained by contrasting water temperature preferences of native and exotic species. Main conclusions Within local neighbourhoods, native diversity may inhibit exotic abundance, but the mechanism is unlikely related to resource limitation. At the largest scale, correlations suggest that native richness is higher in cooler environments, whereas exotic richness is higher in warmer environments. This large-scale pattern contrasts with the typical plant community pattern, and has important implications for coastal management in the face of global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has been fixed in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The introduction and establishment of nonindigenous species (NIS) through global ship movements poses a significant threat to marine ecosystems and economies. While ballast-vectored invasions have been partly addressed by some national policies and an international agreement regulating the concentrations of organisms in ballast water, biofouling-vectored invasions remain largely unaddressed. Development of additional efficient and cost-effective ship-borne NIS policies requires an accurate estimation of NIS spread risk from both ballast water and biofouling. We demonstrate that the first-order Markovian assumption limits accurate modeling of NIS spread risks through the global shipping network. In contrast, we show that higher-order patterns provide more accurate NIS spread risk estimates by revealing indirect pathways of NIS transfer using Species Flow Higher-Order Networks (SF-HON). Using the largest available datasets of non-indigenous species for Europe and the United States, we then compare SF-HON model predictions against those from networks that consider only first-order connections and those that consider all possible indirect connections without consideration of their significance. We show that not only SF-HONs yield more accurate NIS spread risk predictions, but there are important differences in NIS spread via the ballast and biofouling vectors. Our work provides information that policymakers can use to develop more efficient and targeted prevention strategies for ship-borne NIS spread management, especially as management of biofouling is of increasing concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exotic species introduced through the pet trade pose an ecological and economic threat to the Great Lakes region. Trachemys scripta elegans, the red-eared slider turtle, is a globally invasive species already present in the Great Lakes basin whose distribution and potential for spread is poorly known. We assembled a detailed dataset on T. s. elegans occurrence and establishment in the region and created a niche model to assess the potential for the spread of this species under current climate conditions and future scenarios. We found T. s. elegans occurs throughout the Great Lakes basin and suitable area will likely increase from 26% to 39-50% of the entire basin by 2050, with Lake Erie at greatest risk with ∼95% of its total area suitable for T. s. elegans by 2050. These findings highlight the need for further research to assess impacts of T. s. elegans on native species and proactive efforts to prevent its further spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hemigrapsus sanguineus is an invasive species of crab (family: Grapsidae) in the north Atlantic basin. The species has spread rapidly since it was first discovered in North America in the late 1980s; however, the mechanisms of this range expansion remain unclear. This study attempts to predict the vertical distribution and, thus, ultimate transport of H. sanguineus larvae by examining larval responses to gravity and pressure. Geotaxis was determined by measuring the response of individual larvae to gravity in the absence of other tactic stimuli. Barokinesis was determined by measuring changes in swimming speed of larvae upon step-wise changes in pressure. Geotactic response of the larvae changes ontogenetically; early stage larvae are negatively geotactic (orienting towards the surface), while late stage larvae are positively geotactic (orienting towards the bottom). Larvae show a response to pressure that would aid in depth regulation. Early-stage larvae increase activity upon a change in pressure and orient their movement to gravity. However, the larvae show a relatively low sensitivity to pressure change. The evidence predicts an export-and-return model of larval transport, similar to that of Uca spp. in the Middle Atlantic Bight. This model supports the hypothesis that H. sanguineus larvae have the potential for high dispersal and will continue to invade new regions through larval transport. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper evaluates the potential effects of future commercial shipping through the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage on the spread of nonindigenous species (NIS) between Europe, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific region. We modeled NIS spread risk as a function of two factors: NIS introduction and NIS establishment. The change in risk of NIS introduction from one region to another is based on the expected commodity trade flow between the two regions given Arctic shipping routes. The risk of NIS establishment is based on current marine climate similarities between regions and projected 2030 terrestrial climate similarities. Results indicate that the United States, China, and Japan are at greatest risk for increased terrestrial and marine NIS spread to and from one another given their relatively high levels of trading activity and terrestrial and marine climate similarities. While increased trade between European and Asia-Pacific countries is expected in the future, only Japan has terrestrial climate similar enough to that of European countries to be considered a substantial terrestrial NIS spread risk, while China has the potential to increase the risk of marine NIS species spread in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Because significant global changes are currently underway in the Arctic, creating a large‐scale standardized database for Arctic marine biodiversity is particularly pressing. This study evaluates the potential of aquatic environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding to detect Arctic coastal biodiversity changes and characterizes the local spatio‐temporal distribution of eDNA in two locations. We extracted and amplified eDNA using two COI primer pairs from ~80 water samples that were collected across two Canadian Arctic ports, Churchill and Iqaluit, based on optimized sampling and preservation methods for remote regions surveys. Results demonstrate that aquatic eDNA surveys have the potential to document large‐scale Arctic biodiversity change by providing a rapid overview of coastal metazoan biodiversity, detecting nonindigenous species, and allowing sampling in both open water and under the ice cover by local northern‐based communities. We show that DNA sequences of ~50% of known Canadian Arctic species and potential invaders are currently present in public databases. A similar proportion of operational taxonomic units was identified at the species level with eDNA metabarcoding, for a total of 181 species identified at both sites. Despite the cold and well‐mixed coastal environment, species composition was vertically heterogeneous, in part due to river inflow in the estuarine ecosystem, and differed between the water column and tide pools. Thus, COI‐based eDNA metabarcoding may quickly improve large‐scale Arctic biomonitoring using eDNA, but we caution that aquatic eDNA sampling needs to be standardized over space and time to accurately evaluate community structure changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following decades of ecologic and economic impacts from a growing list of nonindigenous and invasive species, government and management entities are committing to systematic early- detection monitoring (EDM). This has reinvigorated investment in the science underpinning such monitoring, as well as the need to convey that science in practical terms to those tasked with EDM implementation. Using the context of nonindigenous species in the North American Great Lakes, this article summarizes the current scientific tools and knowledge – including limitations, research needs, and likely future developments – relevant to various aspects of planning and conducting comprehensive EDM. We begin with the scope of the effort, contrasting target-species with broad-spectrum monitoring, reviewing information to support prioritization based on species and locations, and exploring the challenge of moving beyond individual surveys towards a coordinated monitoring network. Next, we discuss survey design, including effort to expend and its allocation over space and time. A section on sample collection and analysis overviews the merits of collecting actual organisms versus shed DNA, reviews the capabilities and limitations of identification by morphology, DNA target markers, or DNA barcoding, and examines best practices for sample handling and data verification. We end with a section addressing the analysis of monitoring data, including methods to evaluate survey performance and characterize and communicate uncertainty. Although the body of science supporting EDM implementation is already substantial, research and information needs (many already actively being addressed) include: better data to support risk assessments that guide choice of taxa and locations to monitor; improved understanding of spatiotemporal scales for sample collection; further development of DNA target markers, reference barcodes, genomic workflows, and synergies between DNA-based and morphology-based taxonomy; and tools and information management systems for better evaluating and communicating survey outcomes and uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk analysis of species invasions links biology and economics, is increasingly mandated by international and national policies, and enables improved management of invasive species. Biological invasions proceed through a series of transition probabilities (i.e., introduction, establishment, spread, and impact), and each of these presents opportunities for management. Recent research advances have improved estimates of probability and associated uncertainty. Improvements have come from species-specific trait-based risk assessments (of estimates of introduction, establishment, spread, and impact probabilities, especially from pathways of commerce in living organisms), spatially explicit dispersal models (introduction and spread, especially from transportation pathways), and species distribution models (establishment, spread, and impact). Results of these forecasting models combined with improved and cheaper surveillance technologies and practices [e.g., environmental DNA (eDNA), drones, citizen science] enable more efficient management by focusing surveillance, prevention, eradication, and control efforts on the highest-risk species and locations. Bioeconomic models account for the interacting dynamics within and between ecological and economic systems, and allow decision makers to better understand the financial consequences of alternative management strategies. In general, recent research advances demonstrate that prevention is the policy with the greatest long-term net benefit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid climate change has wide-ranging implications for the Arctic region, including sea ice loss, increased geopolitical attention, and expanding economic activity resulting in a dramatic increase in shipping activity. As a result, the risk of harmful non-native marine species being introduced into this critical region will increase unless policy and management steps are implemented in response. Using data about shipping, ecoregions, and environmental conditions, we leverage network analysis and data mining techniques to assess, visualize, and project ballast water-mediated species introductions into the Arctic and dispersal of non-native species within the Arctic. We first identify high-risk connections between the Arctic and non-Arctic ports that could be sources of non-native species over 15 years (1997–2012) and observe the emergence of shipping hubs in the Arctic where the cumulative risk of non-native species introduction is increasing. We then consider how environmental conditions can constrain this Arctic introduction network for species with different physiological limits, thus providing a tool that will allow decision-makers to evaluate the relative risk of different shipping routes. Next, we focus on within-Arctic ballast-mediated species dispersal where we use higher-order network analysis to identify critical shipping routes that may facilitate species dispersal within the Arctic. The risk assessment and projection framework we propose could inform risk-based assessment and management of ship-borne invasive species in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]