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Chrysophyte cyst assemblages from sediment trap and surface sediment samples of 50 lakes in northern Poland were related to environmental variables using multivariate numerical analyses (DCA, CCA). Water electric conductivity, total nitrogen, total phosphorous, turbidity, and cation and anion compositions (Ca2+, HCO3 −) accounted for significant and independent variations in the chrysophyte cyst assemblages. The first canonical axis was related to the gradient of Ca2+ while the second axis was correlated with total nitrogen. A quantitative transfer function was then developed to estimate Ca2+ (log10 transformed) from modern chrysophyte cyst assemblages using weighted-averaging regression with classical deshrinking. The bootstrapped regression coefficient ( $$ {\text{R}}_{\text{boot}}^{2} $$ R boot 2 ) was 0.68, with a root-mean square error of prediction of 0.143 (log10 units). The calibration model was applied to a varved sedimentary sequence (AD 1898-2010) from Lake Żabińskie, Masurian Lakeland (NE Poland). Observational data from this lake show that the Ca2+ variability in the epilimnion depends on the efficiency of Ca2+ scavenging by CaCO3 precipitation in early summer, which in turn is a function of water column stratification, temperature and the wind regime from late spring to early fall. The spring-fall wind regime drives the water column mixing. In Lake Żabińskie, cyst-inferred warm-season lake water Ca2+ concentrations are significantly negatively correlated with calcite precipitation (CaCO3 concentrations in sediments; R=−0.49, padj<0.001; AD 1898-2010; 3-year filtered), and cyst-inferred lake water Ca2+ concentrations are significantly correlated with zonal wind speed (ms−1) (R=0.50; padj<0.001; AD 1898-2010; 3-year filtered). This study demonstrates that chrysophyte cyst assemblages in Polish lakes respond to hydrochemical factors driven by climate variability.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric interannual variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extra-tropics. Here, we assess the stationarity of SAM spatial correlations with instrumental and paleoclimate proxy data for the past millennium. The instrumental period shows that temporal non-stationarities in SAM teleconnections are not consistent across the SH land areas. This suggests that the influence of the SAM index is modulated by regional effects. However, within key-regions with good proxy data coverage (South America, Tasmania, New Zealand), teleconnections are mostly stationary over the instrumental period. Using different stationarity criteria for proxy record selection, we provide new austral summer and annual mean SAM index reconstructions over the last millennium. Our summer SAM reconstructions are very robust to changes in proxy record selection and the selection of the calibration period, particularly on the multi-decadal timescale. In contrast, the weaker performance and lower agreement in the annual mean SAM reconstructions point towards changing teleconnection patterns that may be particularly important outside the summer months. Our results clearly portend that the temporal stationarity of the proxy-climate relationships should be taken into account in the design of comprehensive regional and hemispherical climate reconstructions. The summer SAM reconstructions show no significant relationship to solar, greenhouse gas and volcanic forcing, with the exception of an extremely strong negative anomaly following the AD 1257 Samalas eruption. Furthermore, reconstructed pre-industrial summer SAM trends are very similar to trends obtained by model control simulations. We find that recent trends in the summer SAM lie outside the 5–95% range of pre-industrial natural variability.

We statistically reconstruct austral summer (winter) surface air temperature fields back to ad 900 (1706) using 22 (20) annually resolved predictors from natural and human archives from southern South America (SSA). This represents the first regional-scale climate field reconstruction for parts of the Southern Hemisphere at this high temporal resolution. We apply three different reconstruction techniques: multivariate principal component regression, composite plus scaling, and regularized expectation maximization. There is generally good agreement between the results of the three methods on interannual and decadal timescales. The field reconstructions allow us to describe differences and similarities in the temperature evolution of different sub-regions of SSA. The reconstructed SSA mean summer temperatures between 900 and 1350 are mostly above the 1901-1995 climatology. After 1350, we reconstruct a sharp transition to colder conditions, which last until approximately 1700. The summers in the eighteenth century are relatively warm with a subsequent cold relapse peaking around 1850. In the twentieth century, summer temperatures reach conditions similar to earlier warm periods. The winter temperatures in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries were mostly below the twentieth century average. The uncertainties of our reconstructions are generally largest in the eastern lowlands of SSA, where the coverage with proxy data is poorest. Verifications with independent summer temperature proxies and instrumental measurements suggest that the interannual and multi-decadal variations of SSA temperatures are well captured by our reconstructions. This new dataset can be used for data/model comparison and data assimilation as well as for detection and attribution studies at sub-continental scales

High-resolution (annual to sub-decadal) quantitative reconstructions of climate variables are needed from a variety of paleoclimate archives across the world to place current climate change in the context of long-term natural climate variability. Rapid, high-resolution, non-destructive scanning techniques are required to produce such high-resolution records from lake sediments. In this study we explored the potential of scanning reflectance spectroscopy (VIS-RS; 380-730nm) to produce quantitative summer temperature reconstructions from minerogenic sediments of proglacial, annually laminated Lake Silvaplana, in the eastern Swiss Alps. The scanning resolution was 2mm, which corresponded to sediment deposition over 1-2years. We found correlations up to r=0.84 (p<0.05) for the calibration period 1864-1950, between six reflectance-dependent variables and summer (JJAS) temperature. These reflectance-dependent variables (e.g. slope of the reflectance 570/630nm, indicative of illite, biotite and chlorite; minimum reflectance at 690nm indicative of chlorite) indicate the mineralogical composition of the clastic sediments, which is, in turn, related to climate in the catchment of this particular proglacial lake. We used multiple linear regression (MLR) to establish a calibration model that explains 84% of the variance of summer (JJAS) temperature during the calibration period 1864-1950. We then applied the calibration model downcore to develop a quantitative summer temperature reconstruction extending back to AD 1177. This temperature reconstruction is in good agreement with two independent temperature reconstructions based on documentary data that extend back to AD 1500 and tree ring data that extend back to AD 1177. This study confirms the great potential of in situ scanning reflectance spectroscopy as a novel non-destructive technique to rapidly acquire high-resolution quantitative paleoclimate information from minerogenic lake sediments

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850-2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850-2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.