1. Sensitivity of structural damage to earthquake ground motion scenarios. The Torrevieja earthquake case study
- Author
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Juan Luis Soler-Llorens, D. H. Lang, I. Ferreiro-Prieto, Noelia Agea-Medina, J. A. Huesca, Sergio Molina-Palacios, Juan José Galiana-Merino, Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra y del Medio Ambiente, Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Expresión Gráfica, Composición y Proyectos, Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Construcciones Arquitectónicas, Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Física, Ingeniería de Sistemas y Teoría de la Señal, Grupo de Ingeniería y Riesgo Sísmico (GIRS), Arquitectura - Composición Arquitectónica (CA01), Grupo de Investigación Aplicada de Expresión Gráfica (INVESGRAFICA), and Grupo de Investigación en Restauración Arquitectónica de la Universidad de Alicante. GIRAUA-CICOP
- Subjects
Ground motion ,021110 strategic, defence & security studies ,Epistemic uncertainty ,Applied Mathematics ,Física de la Tierra ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,Computational Mechanics ,02 engineering and technology ,Analytical method ,Seismic vulnerability ,Earthquake damage ,Computer Science Applications ,Computational Mathematics ,Construcciones Arquitectónicas ,Seismic risk ,Modeling and Simulation ,Teoría de la Señal y Comunicaciones ,Sensitivity (control systems) ,Uncertainty quantification ,Geology ,Seismology ,Expresión Gráfica en la Ingeniería - Abstract
Structural damage computation using analytical methods requires the knowledge of the ground motion distribution in the urban area caused by a given earthquake. In this manuscript, the ground motion estimates (i.e. PGA and spectral acceleration values) are obtained through simulation of the 1829 Torrevieja earthquake using the NGA ground motion prediction equations (GMPE). The building stock under consideration has been classified according to the methodology presented in RISK-UE. The computations have been done using the last version of the software SELENA. The epistemic uncertainties of the analysis are accounted for by means of a logic tree computation scheme. The logic tree has two branches for the uncertainty in the earthquake scenario, two branches for the GMPEs and three branches to consider the uncertainties in average shear wave velocity Vs30 (soil conditions). Results indicate large differences derived for the different earthquake loss scenarios (ELE) obtained following each branch of the logic tree. The greatest structural damages and losses are obtained when the earthquake is located in the Bajo Segura fault zone, using Campbell and Bozorgnia GMPE and for soft soil conditions. This article has allowed us to see how the different possible input parameters for ELE should be carefully analyzed for each case study and the importance of providing ELE results in terms of mean values with corresponding uncertainty ranges. The present research has benefited from funding of the Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad through research project CGL2016-77688-R and the Generalitat Valenciana through the research project AICO/2016/098.
- Published
- 2018