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Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease in children and is particularly severe in Guangxi, China. Meteorological conditions are known to play a pivotal role in the HFMD. Previous studies have reported numerous models to predict the incidence of HFMD. In this study, we proposed a new method for the HFMD prediction using GeoDetector and a Long Short-Term Memory neural network (LSTM). The daily meteorological factors and HFMD records in Guangxi during 2014–2015 were adopted. First, potential risk factors for the occurrence of HFMD were identified based on the GeoDetector. Then, region-specific prediction models were developed in 14 administrative regions of Guangxi, China using an optimized three-layer LSTM model. Prediction results (the R-square ranges from 0.39 to 0.71) showed that the model proposed in this study had a good performance in HFMD predictions. This model could provide support for the prevention and control of HFMD. Moreover, this model could also be extended to the time series prediction of other infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative studies of the multiple factors influencing the mountain-mass effect, which causes higher temperatures in mountainous than non-mountainous regions, remain insufficient. This study estimated the air temperature in the Yellow River Basin, which spans three different elevation ranges, using multi-source data to address the uneven distribution of regional meteorological stations. The differences in mountain-mass effect for different geomorphic regions at the same altitude were then compared. The Manner–Kendall nonparametric test was used to analyse time series changes in temperature. Moreover, we employed the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, with MODIS land-surface and air-temperature data, station-based meteorological data, vertical temperature gradients corresponding to the 2000–2015 period, and elevation data, to estimate the correlation between monthly mean surface temperature and air temperature in the Yellow River Basin. The following major results were obtained. (1) The GWR method and ground station-based observations enhanced the accuracy of air-temperature estimates with an error of only ± 0.74°C. (2) The estimated annual variations in the spatial distributions of 12-month average temperatures showed that the upper Tibetan Plateau is characterised by low annual air temperatures with a narrow spatial distribution, whereas north-eastern areas upstream of the Inner Mongolia Plateau are characterised by higher air temperatures. Changes in the average monthly air temperature were also high in the middle and lower reaches, with a narrow spatial distribution. (3) Considering the seasonal variation in the temperature lapse rate, the mountain-mass effect in the Yellow River Basin was very high. In the middle of each season, the variation of air temperature at a given altitude over the Tibetan Plateau was higher than that over the Loess Plateau and Jinji Mountain. The results of this study reveal the unique temperature characteristics of the Yellow River Basin according to its geomorphology. Furthermore, this research contributes to quantifying mountain-mass effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Asthma is a major public health concern throughout the world. Numerous researches have shown that the spatial-temporal patterns of asthma are inconsistent, leading to the suggestion that these patterns are determined by multiple factors. This study aims to detect spatial-temporal clusters of asthma and analyze socio-ecological factors associated with the asthma hospitalization rate in Guangxi, China. Asthma hospitalization and socio-ecological data for 88 counties/municipal districts in Guangxi, China in 2015 was collected. Space-time scan statistics were applied to identify the high-risk periods and areas of asthma hospital admissions. We further used GeoDetector and Spearman correlation coefficient to investigate the socio-ecological factors associated with the asthma hospitalization rates. There were a total of 7804 asthma admissions in 2015. The high-risk period was from April to June. The age groups of 0–4 and ≥65 years were both at the highest risk, with hospital admission rates of 45.0/105 and 46.5/105, respectively. High-risk areas were found in central and western Guangxi with relative risk (RR) values of asthma hospitalizations greater than 2.0. GDP per capita and altitude were positively associated with asthma hospitalizations, while air pressure and wind speed had a negative association. The explanatory powers of these factors (i.e., GDP per capita, altitude, air pressure, wind speed) were 22%, 20%, 14% and 10%, respectively. The GDP per capita appears to have the strongest correlation with asthma hospitalization rates. High-risk areas were identified in central and western Guangxi characterized by high GDP per capita. These findings may be helpful for authorities developing targeted asthma prevention policies for high-risk areas and vulnerable populations, especially during high-risk periods. • In Guangxi, the high-risk period for asthma was from April to June. • Age groups of 0–4 and ≥65 years were at the highest risk. • Hotspots were mainly found in central and western Guangxi where the GDP per capita was high. • GDP per capita played an important role in asthma, which was positively correlated with asthma hospitalization rate. • GeoDetector is suitable for detecting risk factors of disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]