1. Study of the driving factors of the abnormal influenza A (H3N2) epidemic in 2022 and early predictions in Xiamen, China
- Author
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Hansong Zhu, Feifei Qi, Xiaoying Wang, Yanhua Zhang, Fangjingwei Chen, Zhikun Cai, Yuyan Chen, Kaizhi Chen, Hongbin Chen, Zhonghang Xie, Guangmin Chen, Xiaoyuan Zhang, Xu Han, Shenggen Wu, Si Chen, Yuying Fu, Fei He, Yuwei Weng, and Jianming Ou
- Subjects
Influenza ,Meteorological factors ,Air quality ,Phylogenetic analysis ,LSTM ,Random forest (RF) ,Infectious and parasitic diseases ,RC109-216 - Abstract
Abstract Background Influenza outbreaks have occurred frequently these years, especially in the summer of 2022 when the number of influenza cases in southern provinces of China increased abnormally. However, the exact evidence of the driving factors involved in the prodrome period is unclear, posing great difficulties for early and accurate prediction in practical work. Methods In order to avoid the serious interference of strict prevention and control measures on the analysis of influenza influencing factors during the COVID-19 epidemic period, only the impact of meteorological and air quality factors on influenza A (H3N2) in Xiamen during the non coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) period (2013/01/01-202/01/24) was analyzed using the distribution lag non-linear model. Phylogenetic analysis of influenza A (H3N2) during 2013–2022 was also performed. Influenza A (H3N2) was predicted through a random forest and long short-term memory (RF-LSTM) model via actual and forecasted meteorological and influenza A (H3N2) values. Results Twenty nine thousand four hundred thirty five influenza cases were reported in 2022, accounting for 58.54% of the total cases during 2013–2022. A (H3N2) dominated the 2022 summer epidemic season, accounting for 95.60%. The influenza cases in the summer of 2022 accounted for 83.72% of the year and 49.02% of all influenza reported from 2013 to 2022. Among them, the A (H3N2) cases in the summer of 2022 accounted for 83.90% of all A (H3N2) reported from 2013 to 2022. Daily precipitation(20–50 mm), relative humidity (70–78%), low (≤ 3 h) and high (≥ 7 h) sunshine duration, air temperature (≤ 21 °C) and O3 concentration (≤ 30 µg/m3, > 85 µg/m3) had significant cumulative effects on influenza A (H3N2) during the non-COVID-19 period. The daily values of PRE, RHU, SSD, and TEM in the prodrome period of the abnormal influenza A (H3N2) epidemic (19–22 weeks) in the summer of 2022 were significantly different from the average values of the same period from 2013 to 2019 (P
- Published
- 2024
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