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This report provides a descriptive analysis of the African swine fever (ASF) Genotype II epidemic in the affected Member States in the EU and two neighbouring countries for the period from 1 September 2020 to 31 August 2021. ASF continued to spread in wild boar in the EU, it entered Germany in September 2020, while Belgium became free from ASF in October 2020. No ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs nor cases in wild boar have been reported in Greece since February 2020. In the Baltic States, overall, there has been a declining trend in proportions of polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive samples from wild boar carcasses in the last few years. In the other countries, the proportions of PCR-positive wild boar carcasses remained high, indicating continuing spread of the disease. A systematic literature review revealed that the risk factors most frequently significantly associated with ASF in domestic pigs were pig density, low levels of biosecurity and socio-economic factors. For wild boar, most significant risk factors were related to habitat, socio-economic factors and wild boar management. The effectiveness of different control options in the so-named white zones, areas where wild boar densities have been drastically reduced to avoid further spread of ASF after a new introduction, was assessed with a stochastic model. Important findings were that establishing a white zone is much more challenging when the area of ASF incursion is adjacent to an area where limited control measures are in place. Very stringent wild boar population reduction measures in the white zone are key to success. The white zone needs to be far enough away from the affected core area so that the population can be reduced in time before the disease arrives and the timing of this will depend on the wild boar density and the required population reduction target in the white zone. Finally, establishing a proactive white zone along the demarcation line of an affected area requires higher culling effort

African swine fever (ASF) infection is circulating in Eurasia since a decade within wild boar populations without a demonstrated vector host. Further the infection was recurrently translocated by spatio‐temporal dynamics that is incompatible with wild boar movement characteristics. Management actions are required in areas affected by ASF. Control measures address areas with recent focal introduction and areas with ASF circulating several seasons or endemic occurrence. In view of acknowledged gaps in understanding ecology and epidemiology of ASF in Eurasian wild boar, mechanistic modelling was applied. A comparative assessment of alternative control efforts in the focal situations was performed, considering pre‐emptive hunting, carcass detection and removal as well as fencing of selected zones. The individual‐based model was applied to test whether inclusion of natural barriers would affect the similarity with ADNS notification data when simulating the landscape scale spread in the Baltics and Poland. The tendency of barriers to improve the explicit space‐time predictions of the model could not be proven, more research is needed here. The comparative assessment revealed that in the focal scenario the increasing removal of carcasses will provide the greatest return on investment (given carcasses being involved in the transmission). Culling of the inner zones, usually with ASF detections, should be organised early if biosecurity standards could be guaranteed. Preventive hunting around the zones affected by ASF was an inevitable measure to cope with the risk of undetected release of the infection, although the measure alone was unable to terminate the spread. Fences assumed not wild boar proof contributed only marginally to the success but may act as demarcation of management zones in practice. The focal approach appears useful and practical to address ASF after local introductions.

EFSA assisted four countries in the analysis of epidemiological data on African swine fever (ASF), collected until September 2017. The temporal analysis demonstrated that the average proportions of PCR and antibody-ELISA positive samples from the hunted wild boar remained below 3.9 and 6.6, respectively. A peak in the ASF incidence was observed 6 months after the first observed case, followed by a significant reduction of the number of cases and low levels of African swine fever virus (ASFV) circulation at the end of 38 months follow-up period at different spatial resolutions. The spatial analysis concluded that human-mediated spread of ASFV continues to play a critical role in the ASF epidemiology, despite all measures currently taken. ‘Wild boar density’, ‘total road length’ (as proxy for human activity) and ‘average suitable wild boar habitat availability’ were identified as predictors for the occurrence of ASF in Estonia by a Bayesian hierarchical model, whereas ‘wild boar density’ and ‘density of pig farms’ were predictors according to a generalised additive model. To evaluate the preventive strategies proposed in EFSA's Scientific Opinion (2015) to stop the spread of ASFV in the wild boar population, a simulation model, building on expert knowledge and literature was used. It was concluded that reduction of wild boar population and carcass removal to stop the spread of ASFV in the wild boar population are more effective when applied preventively in the infected area. Drastic depopulation, targeted hunting of female wild boar and carcass removal solely implemented as measures to control ASF in the wild boar population need to be implemented in a highly effective manner (at or beyond the limit of reported effectivity in wild boar management) to sustainably halt the spread of ASF.

African swine fever (ASF) virus was introduced in Latvia in June 2014. Thirty-two outbreaks in domestic pigs and 217 cases in wild boar were notified in 2014. Twenty-eight outbreaks (87.5%) were primary outbreaks. The contagiosity within pig herds was low. Failure to use simple biosecurity measures to reduce the chance of virus introduction, for example by inadvertent feeding of locally produced virus contaminated fodder were the main causes for the outbreaks in backyard holdings. The infection in wild boar survived locally in two different areas with a low prevalence and a slow spread. The persistence of the infection in wild boar within an area was most probably linked to wild boar scavenging the carcasses of infected wild boar. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd

Classical swine fever (CSF) is among the most detrimental diseases for the swine industry worldwide. Infected wild boar populations can play a crucial role in CSF epidemiology and controlling wild reservoirs is of utmost importance for preventing domestic outbreaks. Oral mass vaccination (OMV) has been implemented to control CSF in wild boars and limit the spill over to domestic pigs. This retrospective overview of vaccination experiences illustrates the potential for that option. The C-strain live vaccine was confirmed to be highly efficacious and palatable baits were developed for oral delivery in free ranging wild boars. The first field trials were performed in Germany in the 1990’s and allowed deploying oral baits at a large scale. The delivery process was further improved during the 2000’s among different European countries. Optimal deployment has to be early regarding disease emergence and correctly designed regarding the landscape structure and the natural food sources that can compete with oral baits. OMV deployment is also highly dependent on a local veterinary support working closely with hunters, wildlife and forestry agencies. Vaccination has been the most efficient strategy for CSF control in free ranging wild boar when vaccination is wide spread and lasting for a sufficient period of time. Alternative disease control strategies such as intensified hunting or creating physical boundaries such as fences have been, in contrast, seldom satisfactory and reliable. However, monitoring outbreaks has been challenging during and after vaccination deployment since OMV results in a low probability to detect virus-positive animals and the live-vaccine currently available does not allow serological differentiation of infected from vaccinated animals. The development of a new marker vaccine and companion test is thus a promising option for better monitoring outbreaks during OMV deployment as well as help to better determine when to stop vaccination efforts. After rab