Search

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, which has lasted for more than two years and significantly affected tourism, people’s yearning for better tourism has never weakened, and China’s Dual Carbon Strategy further enhanced their desire. At the end of 2020, Ding Zhen shot to stardom on the Internet because of his rugged good looks, further improving the reputation of Ganzi, Sichuan Province, and demonstrating tourists’ desire to appreciate authentic destinations. The following are worthy of research: the factors affecting tourists’ perceptions of the authenticity of destinations, the relationship between perceptions of authenticity and place attachment in potential tourists, and methods to strengthen the authenticity of a destination to enhance the place attachment of potential tourists. Taking Ganzi and Ding Zhen as the research subjects, this paper uses a co-occurrence network map analyzing the four kinds of authenticity perceived for tourist destinations, based on user-generated content, and uses the term frequency-inverse document frequency method to further calculate the weight score of factors. Finally, the paper verifies the influence of each dimension on place attachment by calculating comment sentiment scores. The results show that (1) natural landscapes, human characteristics, and preferential measures significantly impacted the perception of authenticity among potential tourists; (2) among the four kinds of authenticity perceptions, humanistic authenticity was the major promoting factor by which potential tourists formed place attachment. Based on the research results, the paper puts forward a series of suggestions to improve tourists’ emotional attachment to destinations, including creating cultural symbols of local differences, adopting preferential policies for local tickets in a timely manner, and emphasizing nature protection.

Tinggui Chen,1 Lijuan Peng,1 Xiaohua Yin,1 Bailu Jing,2 Jianjun Yang,3 Guodong Cong,4 Gongfa Li5 1School of Statistics and Mathematics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Management and E-Business, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Computer Science and Information Systems, University of North Georgia, Oakwood, GA 30566, USA; 4School of Tourism and Urban-Rural Planning, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, People’s Republic of China; 5Hubei Key Laboratory of Mechanical Transmission and Manufacturing Engineering, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430081, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Guodong Cong Email cgd@mail.zjgsu.edu.cnBackground and Aim: At the end of 2019, the outbreak of COVID-19 had a significant impact on China’s tourism industry, which was almost at a standstill in the short-term. After reaching the preliminarily stable state, the government and the scenic area management department implemented a series of incentive policies in order to speed up the recovery of the tourism industry. Therefore, analyzing all sorts of social effects after policy implementation is of guiding significance for the government and the scenic areas.Methods: Targeted as the social effect with the implementation of tourism promotion policy during the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper briefly analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the national cultural and tourism industry and selects several representative types of tourism policies, crawls the comment data of Weibo users, analyzes users’ perception and emotional preference to the policy, and thus mines the social effect of various policies. Subsequently, by identifying the social effects of various policies as dependent variables, a binarylogistic regression model is constructed to obtain the best combination of tourism promotion policies and promote the rapid revitalization of the cultural and tourism industry.Results: The results show that from the single policy, the social effect of the “safety” policy is the best. From the perspective of combination policies, the simultaneous release of “safety” policies and “economy” policies have the greatest social impact, which can dramatically accelerate the recovery of the cultural and tourism industry. Finally, this paper proposes suggestions for policy formulation to improve the ability of the cultural tourism industry to cope with crisis events.Conclusion: These results explain the perceived effects of the public on the government policies and can be used to judge whether the policies have been released in place. Based on the above results, corresponding suggestions are proposed as follows: 1) the combination of economic policies and security policies can achieve better results; and 2) the role of “opinion leaders” can be played to improve the perceived effect of policies.Keywords: online comments, social effects, combination optimization, data mining, binary logistic regression, COVID-19

Background and Aim: The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a number of instances of large-scale panic buying Taking the COVID-19 pandemic as an example, this paper explores the impact of panic in uncertain environments on panic buying behavior Under certain circumstances, the spread of rumors about shortage of goods is likely to cause large-scale panic buying This paper focuses on the study of such panic buying caused by online rumors Methods: Firstly, based on the improved BA network, this paper constructs a directed network for public opinion communication and integrates an offline communication network to build a two-layer synchronous coupling network based on online and offline communications Secondly, the individual decision model and the panic emotion transmission model under the uncertain environment are constructed Netizens judge the authenticity of network information, determine their own panic degree according to the above two models, and judge whether they participate in the panic buying based on the above factors Finally, the spread of the public opinion of goods buying under the panic state is simulated and analyzed Results: The experimental results of the two-layer synchronous network that integrates offline interaction are significantly different from the results of pure online interaction, which increases the speed of public opinions spread after offline interaction and affects a wider range of groups Under the condition of sufficient supplies, panic in local areas will not cause large-scale panic buying on the whole network However, the results under the same parameters suggest that if there is a shortage of supplies, panic will spread quickly across the network, leading to large-scale panic buying It is very important to ensure sufficient supply of materials at the beginning of the spread of rumors, which can reduce the number of buyers However, if there is a shortage of goods before the panic dissipates in the later stage, there will still be a large-scale rush purchase Conclusion: These results explain the reasons why it is difficult to stop the buying events in many areas under the COVID-19 pandemic Under the uncertain environment, the panic caused by people's fear of stock shortage promotes the occurrence of large-scale rush buying Therefore, in the event of major public health events, ensuring adequate supply of materials is the top priority

Currently, China is in the period of social transformation. Such transformation continuously results in high group polarization behaviors, which attracts many attentions. In order to explore the evolutionary mechanism and formation process of group polarization behavior, this paper proposes a group polarization model which is integrated into the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) epidemic model. In this paper, firstly, the SIRS epidemic model and the factors of relationship strength are introduced based on the J-A model (proposed by Jager and Amblard) to enhance the information transmission and interaction among individuals. In addition, the BA network (proposed by Barabasi and Albert) model is used as the agent adjacency model due to its closeness to the real social network structure. After that, the Monte Carlo method is applied to conduct experimental simulation. Subsequently, this paper analyzes the simulation results in threefold: (1) comparison of polarization processes with and without integration of the SIRS epidemic model; (2) adjusting the immune recovery parameter γ and the relationship strength z to explore the role of these two parameters in the polarization process; and (3) comparing the polarization effects of different network structures. Through the experiments, we find that BA network is more polarized than small-world network in the same scale. Finally, corresponding measures are proposed to prevent and mitigate the occurrence of group polarization.

COVID-19 that broke out at the end of 2019 continues to spread globally, with frequent occurrence of variant disease strains, thus epidemic prevention and control become a kind of routine job. At present, due to the prevention and control measures such as maintaining social distance and community blockades, there is a boom in material purchases in many places, which not only seriously endangers social order and public environmental safety, but also easily leads to the interruption of the supply chain and the shortage of social materials. This article aims to study the intervention methods to curb the spread and spread of panic buying behavior. Firstly, through crawler technology and LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) topic model, this article analyzes the intervention measures taken by various social forces in China to curb the spread of panic buying, and summarizes the multi-channel intervention measures including online and offline forms. Secondly, through the multi-Agent Monte Carlo method, the targeted intervention mechanism is supplemented in each propagation link of the panic buying propagation model, and a new social intervention model of panic buying under sudden epidemic is constructed. Then, through MATLAB modeling and simulation, the main factors affecting panic buying intervention are discussed. The simulation results show that: (1) The single plan with the best intervention effect is the supply monitoring. While the official response can play an immediate inhibitory effect, but it is affected by credibility and timeliness. The intervention effect of psychological counseling is limited, and it generally needs to be used in combination with other measures. (2) The combination strategy with the best intervention effect is “supply monitoring + official response + psychological counseling,” and the worst is “information review and guidance + psychological counseling.” Supply monitoring is a key measure to curb panic buying. At the same time, “information review and guidance” will have a certain counter-effect in the combined strategy. Finally, the effectiveness and universality of the proposed model are verified by examples of China and Britain.

Since 1 January 2021, China has banned nondegradable disposable straws in the catering industry. To promote the enforcement of the ban of plastic straws and improve the relationship between economic development and environmental protection, based on the evolutionary game method, this paper constructs the game model from the supply side and the demand side, respectively. Subsequently, through the dynamic equation, stable system evolution strategy is obtained. Furthermore, simulation is conducted to test the influence of the main parameters in the model on the evolution of system strategy. The results show that (1) the change of the government strategy mainly depends on its regulation costs and revenue, while the production strategy of a company is affected by the government and consumer strategies. (2) From the perspective of enterprise supply, government subsidies can promote technological innovation and develop new plastic straw substitutes. However, government penalties have little effect on violating enterprises. In addition, from the perspective of enterprise demand, with the collaboration of enterprises and consumers, it is easier for enterprises to carry out technological innovation. (3) Consumer acceptance of the substitutes for disposable plastic straws as well as online comments have a decisive influence on the enterprises’ selections for research and development (R&D) strategies.

With the rapid development of the Internet, the speed with which information can be updated and propagated has accelerated, resulting in wide variations in public opinion. Usually, after the occurrence of some newsworthy event, discussion topics are generated in networks that influence the formation of initial public opinion. After a period of propagation, some of these topics are further derived into new subtopics, which intertwine with the initial public opinion to form a multidimensional public opinion. This paper is concerned with the formation process of multi-dimensional public opinion in the context of derived topics. Firstly, the initial public opinion variation mechanism is introduced to reveal the formation process of derived subtopics, then Brownian motion is used to determine the subtopic propagation parameters and their propagation is studied based on complex network dynamics according to the principle of evolution. The formula of basic reproductive number is introduced to determine whether derived subtopics can form derived public opinion, thereby revealing the whole process of multi-dimensional public opinion formation. Secondly, through simulation experiments, the influences of various factors, such as the degree of information alienation, environmental forces, topic correlation coefficients, the amount of information contained in subtopics, and network topology on the formation of multi-dimensional public opinion are studied. The simulation results show that: (1) Environmental forces and the amount of information contained in subtopics are key factors affecting the formation of multi-dimensional public opinion. Among them, environmental forces have a greater impact on the number of subtopics, and the amount of information contained in subtopics determines whether the subtopic can be the key factor that forms the derived public opinion. (2) Only when the degree of information alienation reaches a certain level, will derived subtopics emerge. At the same time, the degree of information alienation has a greater impact on the number of derived subtopics, but it has a small impact on the dimensions of the final public opinion. (3) The network topology does not have much impact on the number of derived subtopics but has a greater impact on the number of individuals participating in the discussion of subtopics. The multidimensional public opinion dimension formed by the network topology with a high aggregation coefficient and small average path length is higher. Finally, a practical case verifies the rationality and effectiveness of the model proposed in this paper.

The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 at the end of 2019 has had a huge impact on people's lives all over the world, and the overwhelmingly negative information about the epidemic has made people panic for the future. This kind of panic spreads and develops through online social networks, and further spreads to the offline environment, which triggers panic buying behavior and has a serious impact on social stability. In order to quantitatively study this behavior, a two-layer propagation model of panic buying behavior under the sudden epidemic is constructed. The model first analyzes the formation process of individual panic from a micro perspective, and then combines the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Model to simulate the spread of group behavior. Then, through simulation experiments, the main factors affecting the spread of panic buying behavior are discussed. The experimental results show that: (1) the dissipating speed of individual panics is related to the number of interactions and there is a threshold. When the number of individuals involved in interacting is equal to this threshold, the panic of the group dissipates the fastest, while the dissipation speed is slower when it is far from the threshold; (2) The reasonable external information release time will affect the occurrence of the second panic buying, meaning providing information about the availability of supplies when an escalation of epidemic is announced will help prevent a second panic buying. In addition, when the first panic buying is about to end, if the scale of the second panic buying is to be suppressed, it is better to release positive information after the end of the first panic buying, rather than ahead of the end; and (3) Higher conformity among people escalates panic, resulting in panic buying. Finally, two cases are used to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model.

With the development of information technology, the Internet has become an important channel of public opinion for expressing public interests, emotion, and ideas. Public emergency usually spreads via network. Due to the temporal and spatial flexibility and the information amplification of network, the opinions from different regions and background are easy to be represented as network public opinion, and have important impact on social and economic life. Thus, studying the formation mechanism of network public opinion has important theoretical and practical significance. Taking the formation process of network public opinion under emergencies as the research object, this paper first identifies the key factors influencing the formation of network public opinion, namely the internal characteristics (include individual education level, individual stubbornness, individual initial opinion, and so on) and external information of individuals (include external information intensity). Second, information intensity is introduced to describe the influence of external information feature on the formation of network public opinion. Individual education level, individual stubbornness, and individual initial opinion are analyzed to describe the influence of individual internal factors on the formation, and then its model is constructed. Through the simulation experiments, this paper analyzes the influence of external information intensity, individual education level, individual stubbornness, individual initial opinion, and other factors on the formation of network public opinion. The simulation results show that: (1) the greater intensity of public emergency reporting causes the easier formation of network public opinion; (2) the higher individual education level leads to the shorter time for completing the final formation and stable state of online public opinions, and after the formation of online public opinions, the opinion of the event is mainly neutral; (3) the greater individual's stubbornness makes the shorter formation time of online public opinion. When online public opinion reaches a stable state, the neutral opinion group dominates and firmly controls the development trend of public opinion; (4) the difference of opinions among individuals is the most important factor affecting the formation of network public opinion. Finally, the rationality and validity of the proposed model are verified by a real case. Compared with previous studies on the formation mechanism of network public opinion, this paper divides the formation process of network public opinion into three stages: individual information perception, individual decision making, and individual opinion transmission. Meanwhile, the influence of individual internal factors and external information characteristics on the formation process of network public opinion is also considered.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, social education has shifted from face to face to online in order to avoid large gatherings and crowds for blocking the transmission of the virus. To analyze the impact of virus on user experience and deeply retrieve users&rsquo, requirements, this paper constructs a reasonable evaluation index system through obtaining user reviews about seven major online education platforms before and after the outbreak of COVID-19, and by combining the emotional analysis, hot mining technology, as well as relevant literature. At the same time, the variation coefficient method is chosen to weigh each index based on the difference of index values. Furthermore, this paper adopts the comprehensive evaluation method to analyze user experience before and after the outbreak of COVID-19, and finally finds out the change of users&rsquo, concerns regarding the online education platform. In terms of access speed, reliability, timely transmission technology of video information, course management, communication and interaction, and learning and technical support, this paper explores the supporting abilities and response levels of online education platforms during COVID-19, and puts forward corresponding measures to improve how these platforms function.

The outbreak of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in various countries at the end of last year has transferred traditional face-to-face teaching to online education platforms, which directly affects the quality of education. Taking user satisfaction on online education platforms in China as the research object, this paper uses a questionnaire survey and web crawler to collect experience data of online and offline users, constructs a customer satisfaction index system by analyzing emotion and the existing literature for quantitative analysis, and builds aback propagation (BP) neural network model to forecast user satisfaction. The conclusion shows that users&rsquo, personal factors have no direct influence on user satisfaction, while platform availability has the greatest influence on user satisfaction. Finally, suggestions on improving the online education platform are given to escalate the level of online education during the COVID-19 pandemic, so as to promote the reform of information-based education.

It is common that many roads in disaster areas are damaged and obstructed after sudden-onset disasters. The phenomenon often comes with escalated traffic deterioration that raises the time and cost of emergency supply scheduling. Fortunately, repairing road network will shorten the time of in-transit distribution. In this paper, according to the characteristics of emergency supplies distribution, an emergency supply scheduling model based on multiple warehouses and stricken locations is constructed to deal with the failure of part of road networks in the early postdisaster phase. The detailed process is as follows. When part of the road networks fail, we firstly determine whether to repair the damaged road networks, and then a model of reliable emergency supply scheduling based on bi-level programming is proposed. Subsequently, an improved artificial bee colony algorithm is presented to solve the problem mentioned above. Finally, through a case study, the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed model and algorithm are verified.

Social conflicts occur frequently during the social transition period and the polarization of public opinion happens occasionally. By introducing the social preference theory, the target of this paper is to reveal the micro-interaction mechanism of public opinion polarization. Firstly, we divide the social preferences of Internet users (network nodes) into three categories: egoistic, altruistic, and fair preferences, and adopt the revenue function to define the benefits obtained by individuals with different preferences among their interaction process so as to analyze their decision-making behaviors driven by the revenue. Secondly, the revenue function is used to judge the exit rules of nodes in a network, and then a dynamic network of spreading public opinion with the node (individual) exit mechanism is built based on a BA scale-free network. Subsequently, the influences of different social preferences, as well as individual revenue on the effect of public opinion polarization, are analyzed through simulation experiments. The simulation results show that (1) Different social preferences demonstrate different influences on the evolution of public opinions, (2) Individuals tend to interact with ones with different preferences, (3) The network with a single preference or a high aggregation is more likely to form public opinion polarization. Finally, the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed model are verified by a real case.

Emergency logistics plays an important role in the rescue process after sudden disasters. However, in the process of emergency logistics activities, risks may arise due to scheduling problems or insufficient supply of warehouse stocks, resulting in an insufficient rescue capacity. In addition, the risk of emergency logistics is random and may exist in a certain link or throughout the whole rescue process of emergency logistics. Consequently, the disaster site may be invaded by sudden disaster risk due to the lack of necessary material supplies. The entire emergency logistics system may be destroyed and cause even greater losses as well. Based on this phenomenon, this paper introduces reliability factors of materials and combines the complex network theory to build an emergency logistics network and analyze the emergency logistics risk propagation mechanism. This paper firstly builds an emergency logistics network based on complex network theory. Then, it combines the improved epidemic model to analyze the influencing factors of risk propagation in the emergency logistics network. Finally, this paper probes into the emergency logistics risk propagation mechanisms and processes in terms of network type, material reliability, rescue speed, etc. Furthermore, this paper identifies key factors for risk control and proposes countermeasures to further spread risks, thereby reducing the risk to loss of economic life.

Nowadays, hot issues are likely become bipolar or multipolar after heated discussion on the Internet. This article is focused on the study of the polarization phenomenon and establishes a public opinion polarization model with the considerations of individual heterogeneity and dynamic conformity. At first, this article introduces the dynamic changing function of an individual&rsquo, s conformity tendency to other&rsquo, s attitudes in the interaction process. It further defines the influential weight between different interactive individuals, and expands the interactive individual from complete homogeneity to initial attitude heterogeneity, and finally, conformity heterogeneity. Then, through simulation experiments, we find that the degree of changing in individual attitude is limited. That is, it is difficult for the individuals who have one directional attitude at the initial time to change into another opposite attitude through interaction. In addition, individuals with low conformity within a certain threshold are more likely to form polarization. Finally, the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed model are verified by the typical case &ldquo, Mimeng Event&rdquo

Purpose Nowadays, database management system has been applied in library management, and a great number of data about readers’ visiting history to resources have been accumulated by libraries. A lot of important information is concealed behind such data. The purpose of this paper is to use a typical data mining (DM) technology named an association rule mining model to find out borrowing rules of readers according to their borrowing records, and to recommend other booklists for them in a personalized way, so as to increase utilization rate of data resources at library. Design/methodology/approach Association rule mining algorithm is applied to find out borrowing rules of readers according to their borrowing records, and to recommend other booklists for them in a personalized way, so as to increase utilization rate of data resources at library. Findings Through an analysis on record of book borrowing by readers, library manager can recommend books that may be interested by a reader based on historical borrowing records or current book-borrowing records of the reader. Research limitations/implications If many different categories of book-borrowing problems are involved, it will result in large length of encoding as well as giant searching space. Therefore, future research work may be considered in the following aspects: introduce clustering method; and apply association rule mining method to procurement of book resources and layout of books. Practical implications The paper provides a helpful inspiration for Big Data mining and software development, which will improve their efficiency and insight on users’ behavior and psychology. Social implications The paper proposes a framework to help users understand others’ behavior, which will aid them better take part in group and community with more contribution and delightedness. Originality/value DM technology has been used to discover information concealed behind Big Data in library; the library personalized recommendation problem has been analyzed and formulated deeply; and a method of improved association rules combined with artificial bee colony algorithm has been presented.

With highly developed social media, English learning Applications have become a new type of mobile learning resources, and online comments posted by users after using them have not only become an important source of intellectual competition for enterprises, but can also help understand customers’ requirements, thereby improving product functionalities and service quality, and solve the pain points of product iteration and innovation. Based on this, this paper crawled the online user comments of three typical APPs (BaiCiZhan, MoMoBeiDanCi and BuBeiDanCi), through emotion analysis and hotspot mining technology, to obtain user requirements and then the K-means clustering method was used to analyze user requirements. Finally, quantile regression is used to find out which user needs have an impact on the downloads of English vocabulary APPs. The results show that: (1) Positive comments have a more significant impact on users’ downloads behavior than negative online comments. (2) English vocabulary APPs with higher downloads, both the 5-star user ratings and the increase of emotional requirement have a negative effect on the increase in APP downloads, while the enterprise’s service requirement improvement has a positive effect on the increase of APP downloads. (3) Regarding English vocabulary APPs with average or high downloads, improving the adaptability and Appearance requirements have significant negative impact on downloads. (4) The functional requirements to improve products will have a significant positive impact on the increase in downloads of English vocabulary APPs.

With the rapid development of “We media” technology, netizens can freely express their opinions regarding enterprise products on a network platform. Consequently, online public opinion about enterprises has become a prominent issue. Negative comments posted by some netizens may trigger negative public opinion, which can have a significant impact on an enterprise’s image. From the perspective of helping enterprises deal with negative public opinion, this paper combines user portrait technology and a random forest algorithm to help enterprises identify high-risk users who have posted negative comments and thus may trigger negative public opinion. In this way, enterprises can monitor the public opinion of high-risk users to prevent negative public opinion events. Firstly, we crawled the information of users participating in discussions of product experience, and we constructed a portrait of enterprise public opinion users. Then, the characteristics of the portraits were quantified into indicators such as the user’s activity, the user’s influence, and the user’s emotional tendency, and the indicators were sorted. According to the order of the indicators, the users were divided into high-risk, moderate-risk, and low-risk categories. Next, a supervised high-risk user identification model for this classification was established, based on a random forest algorithm. In turn, the trained random forest identifier can be used to predict whether the authors of newly published public opinion information are high-risk users. Finally, a back propagation neural network algorithm was used to identify users and compared with the results of model recognition in this paper. The results showed that the average recognition accuracy of the back propagation neural network is only 72.33%, while the average recognition accuracy of the model constructed in this paper is as high as 98.49%, which verifies the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed random forest recognition method.

With the development of Internet technology, the speed of information dissemination and accelerated updates result in frequent discussion of topics and expressions of public opinion. In general, multi-dimensional discussion topics related to the same event are often generated in the network, and the phenomenon of multi-dimensional public opinion polarization is formed under the mutual influence of groups. This paper targets the phenomenon of multi-dimensional public opinion polarization under topic-derived situations as the research object. Firstly, this paper identifies the factors influencing multi-dimensional public opinion polarization, including the mutual influence of different topic dimensions and the interaction of viewpoints within the same topic. Secondly, the topic correlation coefficient is introduced to describe the correlation among topics in different dimensions, and the individual topic support degree is used to measure the influence of topics in different dimensions and that of information from external intervention on individual attitudes. Thirdly, a multi-dimensional public opinion polarization model is constructed by further integrating multi-dimensional attitude interaction rules. Finally, the influence of individual participation, topic status, topic correlation coefficient and external intervention information on the multi-dimensional public opinion polarization process is analyzed through simulation experiments. The simulation results show that: (1) when there is a negative correlation between multi-dimensional topics, as the number of participants on different dimensional topics becomes more consistent, the conflict between multi-dimensional topics will weaken the polarization effect of overall public opinion. However, the effect of public opinion polarization will be enhanced alongwith the enhancement in the confidence of individual opinions. (2) The intervention of external intervention information in different dimensions at different times will further form a multi-dimensional and multi-stage public opinion polarization, and when the multi-dimensional topics are negatively correlated, the intervention of external intervention information will have a stronger impact on the multi-dimensional and multi-stage public opinion polarization process. Finally, the rationality and validity of the proposed model are verified by a real case.

The occurrence of popular social events causes fluctuations and changes of public emotions, while the rapid development of online social platforms and networks has made individual interactions more intense and further escalated public emotions into public opinion. However, there is a lack of consideration of individual emotions in the current research on online public opinion. Based on this, this paper firstly expounds the quantitative representation of attitude and emotion, analyzes the formation and propagation process of online public opinion by combining individual’s expression willingness, individual’s expression ability, attitude perception value, attitude change probability and other factors, and constructs a network public opinion propagation model that takes individual emotion into consideration. Finally, the main factors affecting the formation and propagation of network public opinion are discussed through simulation experiments. The results demonstrate that: (1) fear is conducive to the formation of online public opinion, but the speed is relatively slow, sadness is not conducive to the formation, but once enough people participate in the exchange of views, the formation of online public opinion will be faster, (2) the influence of online public opinion on individual emotions expands with the increase of the number of individual interactions, (3) different network structures impact differently on the propagation of public opinion. Among them, BA (BA network is a scale-free network model proposed by Barabasi and Albert in order to explain the generation mechanism of power law, BA model has two characteristics: growth and priority connection mechanism) and ER (ER network is a network with random connectivity proposed by Erdös-Renyi) random networks can promote the propagation of online public opinion, which is prone to “one-sided” online public opinion. WS small-world networks (proposed by Watts and Strogatz. It is a kind of network with short average path length and high clustering coefficient) and fully-connected networks have an inhibitory effect on the spread of online public opinion, easily maintaining the multi-dimensional nature of online public opinion.

Risks evaluation is critical for the success of IT offshore outsourcing. Based on fuzzy group decision-making (FGDM) and variable precision fuzzy rough set (VPFRS), this article proposes a new integrated model, variable precision fuzzy rough group decision-making (VPFRGDM), to evaluate the risk in IT offshore outsourcing. This model can improve the capability to handle potential errors fairness and efficiency of risk evaluation, and is verified by a numerical case.

With the great risk exposed in IT outsourcing, how to assess IT outsourcing risk becomes a critical issue. However, most of approaches to date need to further adapt to the particular complexity of IT outsourcing risk for either falling short in subjective bias, inaccuracy, or efficiency. This paper proposes a dynamic algorithm of risk assessment. It initially forwards extended three layers (risk factors, risks, and risk consequences) of transferring mechanism based on transaction cost theory (TCT) as the framework of risk analysis, which bridges the interconnection of components in three layers with preset transferring probability and impact. Then, it establishes an equation group between risk factors and risk consequences, which assures the “attribution” more precisely to track the specific sources that lead to certain loss. Namely, in each phase of the outsourcing lifecycle, both the likelihood and the loss of each risk factor and those of each risk are acquired through solving equation group with real data of risk consequences collected. In this “reverse” way, risk assessment becomes a responsive and interactive process with real data instead of subjective estimation, which improves the accuracy and alleviates bias in risk assessment. The numerical case proves the effectiveness of the algorithm compared with the approach forwarded by other references.