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Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative pest risk assessment to assess whether the import of cut roses provides a pathway for the introduction of Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) into the EU. The assessment was limited to the entry and establishment steps. A pathway model was used to assess how many T. leucotreta individuals would survive and emerge as adults from commercial or household wastes in an EU NUTS2 region climatically suitable in a specific season. This pathway model for entry consisted of three components: a cut roses distribution model, a T. leucotreta developmental model and a waste model. Four scenarios of timing from initial disposal of the cut roses until waste treatment (3, 7, 14 and 28 days) were considered. The estimated median number of adults escaping per year from imported cut roses in all the climatically suitable NUTS2 regions of the EU varied from 49,867 (90% uncertainty between 5,298 and 234,393) up to 143,689 (90% uncertainty between 21,126 and 401,458) for the 3- and 28-day scenarios. Assuming that, on average, a successful mating will happen for every 435 escaping moths, the estimated median number of T. leucotreta mated females per year from imported cut roses in all the climatically suitable NUTS2 regions of the EU would vary from 115 (90% uncertainty between 12 and 538) up to 330 (90% uncertainty between 49 and 923) for the 3- and 28-day scenarios. Due to the extreme polyphagia of T. leucotreta, host availability will not be a limiting factor for establishment. Climatic suitability assessment, using a physiologically based demographic modelling approach, identified the coastline extending from the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula through the Mediterranean as area suitable for establishment of T. leucotreta. This assessment indicates that cut roses provide a pathway for the introduction of T. leucotreta into the EU.

Tropical fruit flies are considered among the most economically important invasive species detected in temperate areas of the United States and the European Union. Detections often trigger quarantine and eradication programs that are conducted without a holistic understanding of the threat posed. Weather-driven physiologically-based demographic models are used to estimate the geographic range, relative abundance, and threat posed by four tropical tephritid fruit flies (Mediterranean fruit fly, melon fly, oriental fruit fly, and Mexican fruit fly) in North and Central America, and the European-Mediterranean region under extant and climate change weather (RCP8.5 and A1B scenarios). Most temperate areas under tropical fruit fly propagule pressure have not been suitable for establishment, but suitability is predicted to increase in some areas with climate change. To meet this ongoing challenge, investments are needed to collect sound biological data to develop mechanistic models to predict the geographic range and relative abundance of these and other invasive species, and to put eradication policies on a scientific basis.

Learning human anatomy may be a difficult task for students for a variety of reasons including the quantity of material in the course or discipline-specific factors such as understanding anatomical terminology or learning complex physiological processes. Additionally, students may find certain organ systems more challenging than others. While prior studies have assessed student perceptions of learning specific organ systems in a variety of settings, it is unknown what organ systems students in an undergraduate human anatomy course find most difficult to learn. The goals of this study were to determine what organ systems undergraduate human anatomy students find most and least challenging to learn and to determine the reasons why they feel as they do. The results of this study showed that students overwhelmingly found the peripheral nervous system to be the most difficult to learn because of complex structure-function relationships and their inability to visualize the system. Conversely, students thought that the cardiovascular and skeletal systems were the least challenging to learn because of prior exposure to them and ease of visualization. These findings allow for the development and alteration of instructional strategies to address the issues that students face when learning about difficult organ systems.

Coffee, after petroleum, is the most valuable commodity globally in terms of total value (harvest to coffee cup). Here, our bioeconomic analysis considers the multitude of factors that influence coffee production. The system model used in the analysis incorporates realistic field models based on considerable new field data and models for coffee plant growth and development, the coffee/coffee berry borer (CBB) dynamics in response to coffee berry production and the role of the CBB parasitoids and their interactions in control of CBB. Cultural control of CBB by harvesting, cleanup of abscised fruits, and chemical sprays previously considered are reexamined here to include biopesticides for control of CBB such as entomopathogenic fungi (Beauveria bassiana, Metarhizium anisopliae) and entomopathogenic nematodes (Steinernema sp., Heterorhabditis). The bioeconomic analysis estimates the potential of each control tactic singly and in combination for control of CBB. The analysis explains why frequent intensive harvesting of coffee is by far the most effective and economically viable control practice for reducing CBB infestations in Colombia and Brazil.

Before its eradication from North America, the subtropical-tropical new world screwworm fly Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel) invaded southwestern temperate areas of the U.S.A., where it caused myiasis in wildlife and livestock. Outbreaks of the fly occurred during years when adult migrants were carried northward on North American monsoon winds from the northern areas of Mexico and south Texas. We deconstruct, retrospectively, the biology and the effect of weather on the eradication of the fly in North America. Screwworm was found to be an ideal candidate for eradication using the sterile insect technique (SIT) because females mate only once, whereas males are polygynous, and, although it has a high reproductive potential, field population growth rates are low in tropical areas. In northern areas, eradication was enhanced by cool-cold weather, whereas eradication in tropical Mexico and Central America is explained by the SIT. Despite low average efficacy of SIT releases (approximately 1.7%), the added pressure of massive SIT releases reduced intrinsically low fly populations, leading to mate-limited extinction. Non-autochthonous cases of myiasis occur in North America and, if the fly reestablishes, climate warming by 2045-2055 will expand the area of favourability and increase the frequency and severity of outbreaks.

Parasitoids native to tropical Africa have been released in the Americas for the biological control of the coffee berry borer (CBB), but their establishment has been checkered. A tritrophic distributed maturation time model for the coffee plant – CBB – three parasitoids (Phymastichus coffea, Cephalonomia stephanoderis, Prorops nasuta) system was proposed by Gutierrez et al. (1998). Based on this pioneering work, and improved models for coffee and CBB (Rodríguez et al., 2011, 2013), we present an updated version of the parasitoid models. The new elements in this analysis include: 1. New data on the biology and behavior of the parasitoids are added.2. A fourth parasitoid (Cephalonomia hyalinipennis) is added to the system.3. Interspecific competitive interactions among parasitoids (e.g., dyadic contests, intra-guild predation and hyperparasitism) and their effects on the control of CBB are explored.Because field data on the effectiveness of the parasitoids on CBB control is sparse, we assessed the efficacy of the parasitoids for control of CBB heuristically. The results are compared to prior analyses, and are related to field observations. Specifically, we found: 1. Control of CBB by betilid parasitoids (Cephalonomia stephanoderis, Cephalonomia hyalinipennis and Prorops nasuta) is ineffective because of their low reproductive capacity relative to CBB, their host-feeding behavior, and phenological mismatches with CBB life stages.2. Of the parasitoids, the eulophid P. coffea has the greatest potential to suppress CBB infestation levels, though the fungal pathogen B. bassiana and insecticides are reported to have detrimental effects on its establishment and dynamics.

For over a decade, our research group has studied the biology of the native bumblebee, Bombus atratus, to investigate the feasibility of using it to pollinate crops such as tomato, strawberry, blackberry and peppers. Traditionally, captive breeding has depended on the use of captured wild queens to initiate the colonies. The goal of the current work is to investigate conditions required to produce new queens and drones in captivity. In this study, 31 colonies were evaluated under either greenhouse or open field conditions over a 15 month period. A total of 1492 drones (D) and 737 gynes (G, i.e., virgin queens) were produced by all colonies, with 16 colonies producing both drones and gynes (D&G), 11 producing only drones (D) and 4 producing neither. Some of the D&G colonies had more than one sexual phase, but no colonies produced exclusively gynes. More drones and fewer gynes were produced per colony under greenhouse conditions with the highest number of drones produced by D&G colonies. The numbers of immature stages per cell declined in colonies as increasingly more resources were allocated to the production of gynes and the maintenance of increased nest temperature.

The polyphagous Asian vinegar fly Drosophila suzukii (spotted wing Drosophila) is a native of Eastern and Southeastern Asia. It emerged as an important invasive insect pest of berries and stone fruits in the Americas and Europe beginning in 2008. Species distribution models are commonly used for analyzing the extant and potential range expansion of invasive species. Previous modeling efforts for D. suzukii include a degree-day model, a MaxEnt ecological niche model, a demographic model incorporating the effects of temperature, and a preliminary mechanistic physiologically-based demographic model (PBDM). In the present analysis, we refine the PBDM for D. suzukii based on biological data reported in the literature. The PBDM is used to assess the effects of temperature and relative humidity from a recently published global climate dataset (AgMERRA) on the prospective geographic distribution and relative abundance of the pest in the USA and Mexico, and in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. Our focus is on areas of recent invasion and of predicted higher invasiveness in these areas. Although the species is native to Asia and is of putative temperate origins, it has established in subtropical to north temperate zones worldwide where it infests a wide range of wild and domesticated berries and stone fruits. The model captures the observed phenology of D. suzukii at specific locations, as well as the potential geographic distribution and relative favorability across larger regions. The main limiting factor is cold winter temperature in northern areas, though high temperatures and low relative humidity may be limiting in arid areas. The effect of greater cold tolerance in winter morph adults is explored.

The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests.

The highly polyphagous light brown apple moth (LBAM) (Epiphyas postvittana (Walk.): Tortricidae) is indigenous to Australia and was first found in California in 2006. It is currently found in 15 coastal counties in California, but nowhere has it reached outbreak status. The USDA projects the geographic range of LBAM will include much of Arizona and California and the southern half of the US, which together with economic estimates of potential crop losses have been used as the rationale for an eradication program in California. We report a temperature-driven demographic model to predict the likely distribution and relative abundance of LBAM using the detailed biology reported by Danthanarayana and colleagues, and climate data from 151 locations in California and Arizona for the period 1995–2006. The predictions of our model suggest that the near coastal regions of California are most favorable for LBAM, the northern Central Valley of California being less favorable, and the desert regions of Arizona and California being unfavorable. The model also predicts that LBAM populations can develop at two of the hottest locations in SE Australia where it is has long been known to occur. This reassessment of the potential distribution of LBAM in California and Arizona suggests that its likely ecological and economic impacts would be less than previously assessed by USDA and that its current pest status warrants re-evaluation.

Proper functioning of the nervous system relies not only on the generation of a vast repertoire of distinct neural cell types but also on the precise neural circuitry within them. How the generation of highly diverse neural populations is regulated during development remains a topic of interest. Landmark studies in Drosophila have identified the genetic and temporal cues regulating neural diversity and thus have provided valuable insights into our understanding of temporal patterning of the central nervous system. The development of the Drosophila central complex, which is mostly derived from type II neural stem cell (NSC) lineages, showcases how a small pool of NSCs can give rise to vast and distinct progeny. Similar to the human outer subventricular zone (OSVZ) neural progenitors, type II NSCs generate intermediate neural progenitors (INPs) to expand and diversify lineages that populate higher brain centers. Each type II NSC has a distinct spatial identity and timely regulated expression of many transcription factors and mRNA binding proteins. Additionally, INPs derived from them show differential expression of genes depending on their birth order. Together type II NSCs and INPs display a combinatorial temporal patterning that expands neural diversity of the central brain lineages. We cover advances in current understanding of type II NSC temporal patterning and discuss similarities and differences in temporal patterning mechanisms of various NSCs with a focus on how cell-intrinsic and extrinsic hormonal cues regulate temporal transitions in NSCs during larval development. Cell extrinsic ligands activate conserved signaling pathways and extrinsic hormonal cues act as a temporal switch that regulate temporal progression of the NSCs. We conclude by elaborating on how a progenitor's temporal code regulates the fate specification and identity of distinct neural types. At the end, we also discuss open questions in linking developmental cues to neural identity, circuits, and underlying behaviors in the adult fly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of marginal land (ML) for lignocellulosic biofuel production is examined for system stability, resilience, and eco-social sustainability. A North American prairie grass system and its industrialization for maximum biomass production using biotechnology and agro-technical inputs is the focus of the analysis. Demographic models of ML biomass production and ethanol farmer/producers are used to examine the stability properties of the ML system. A bio-economic model that maximizes the utility of consumption having the dynamics of MLs and the farmer/producers as dynamic constraints is used to examine the effects of increased conversion efficiency, input costs, risk, and levels of base resources and inputs on the competitive and societal solutions for biomass production. We posit ML abandonment after biofuel production ceases could lead to permanent land degradation below initial levels that prohibit the establishment of the original flora and fauna. (Contains 1 table, 5 figures and 1 note.)

Transgenic insecticidal Bt crops are being increasingly used worldwide, and concern is increasing about resistance and their effects on nontarget organisms. The toxin acts as a weak pesticide and, hence, the effects are subtler than those of chemical biocides. However, the toxin is ever present, but concentrations vary with age of plant and plant subunit, causing varying lethal and sublethal effects on pest survival, developmental time, and fecundity. Refuges for susceptibility to Bt occur spatially in non-Bt hosts and temporally within the crop because of time-varying toxicity and pest tolerance. Natural enemies feeding on Bt-intoxicated prey may have reduced longevity and, likely, fecundity that reduces their efficacy in controlling pest populations, and pest resurgence and secondary pest outbreaks may occur that may require insecticide use. System modeling is proposed as an efficient tool for examining the use of extant and future biotechnologies in pest control.