1. A system dynamics-based scenario analysis of residential solid waste management in Kisumu, Kenya
- Author
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Hellen Gitau, Susan Michie, James Milner, Joanna Hale, L. Schäfer, Paul Wilkinson, B Mberu, Michael Davies, A. Gómez-Sanabria, K Dianati, Gregor Kiesewetter, Kanyiva Muindi, H. Langmaack, and Nici Zimmermann
- Subjects
COP, conference of the parties ,Municipal solid waste ,ICS, improved cookstove ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,SD, system dynamics ,System dynamics ,010501 environmental sciences ,MW, megawatt ,01 natural sciences ,SWM, solid waste management ,GWP, global warming potential ,Environmental protection ,HDI, human development index ,SSA, sub-Saharan Africa ,Waste Management and Disposal ,WtE, waste-to-energy ,SDG, sustainable development goals ,Health impact assessment ,GBD, Global Burden of Disease ,MSWM, municipal solid waste management ,Pollution ,LPG, liquefied petroleum gas ,Municipal solid waste management ,CO, carbon monoxide ,MSW, municipal solid waste ,Kisumu ,Environmental Engineering ,KNBS, Kenyan National Bureau of Statistics ,LCA, life cycle assessment ,Context (language use) ,IHD, ischaemic heart disease ,PM, particulate matter ,Article ,WHO, World Health Organization ,IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ,GHG accounting ,DOC, degradable organic carbon ,Biogas ,MJ, megajoule ,EU, European Union ,Greenhouse gas emissions ,Environmental Chemistry ,Scenario analysis ,Baseline (configuration management) ,LRI, lower respiratory infections ,KISWAMP, Kisumu Integrated Solid Waste Management Plan ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,AD, anaerobic digestion ,BC, black carbon ,Greenhouse gas ,Environmental science ,GHG, greenhouse gas - Abstract
The problem of solid waste management presents an issue of increasing importance in many low-income settings, including the progressively urbanised context of Kenya. Kisumu County is one such setting with an estimated 500 t of waste generated per day and with less than half of it regularly collected. The open burning and natural decay of solid waste is an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and atmospheric pollutants with adverse health consequences. In this paper, we use system dynamics modelling to investigate the expected impact on GHG and PM2.5 emissions of (i) a waste-to-biogas initiative and (ii) a regulatory ban on the open burning of waste in landfill. We use life tables to estimate the impact on mortality of the reduction in PM2.5 exposure. Our results indicate that combining these two interventions can generate over 1.1 million tonnes of cumulative savings in GHG emissions by 2035, of which the largest contribution (42%) results from the biogas produced replacing unclean fuels in household cooking. Combining the two interventions is expected to reduce PM2.5 emissions from the waste and residential sectors by over 30% compared to our baseline scenario by 2035, resulting in at least around 1150 cumulative life years saved over 2021–2035. The contribution and novelty of this study lies in the quantification of a potential waste-to-biogas scenario and its environmental and health impact in Kisumu for the first time., Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image, Highlights • We present a system dynamics study of solid waste management in Kisumu, Kenya. • Scenarios involve a waste-to-biogas initiative and a ban on open burning in landfill. • Combined scenario generates 1.1m tonnes cumulative GHG savings by 2035. • Largest contribution (42%) is from biogas substituting traditional cooking fuels. • Combined scenario may save 1,150 cumulative life years by 2035, plus ~220 more p.a.
- Published
- 2021