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Objective To describe which combinations of long term conditions were associated with a higher risk of hospital admission or death during winter 2021-22 (the third wave of the covid-19 pandemic) in adults in England.Design Population based cohort study.Setting Linked primary and secondary care data from the General Practice Extraction Service Data for Pandemic Planning and Research (GDPPR) database, Hospital Episode Statistics, and Office for National Statistics death registry, comprising pseudoanonymised routinely collected electronic medical records from the whole population of England registered at a general practice, 1 December 2021 to 31 March 2022.Participants 48 253 125 individuals, registered in GDPPR in England, aged ≥18 years, and alive on 1 December 2021.Main outcomes measures All cause hospital admissions and deaths associated with combinations of multiple long term conditions compared with those with no long term conditions, during the winter season (1 December 2021 to 31 March 2022). Overdispersed Poisson regression models were used to estimate the incidence rate ratios after adjusting for age, sex, ethnic group, and index of multiple deprivation.Results Complete data were available for 48 253 125 adults, of whom 15 million (31.2%) had multiple long term conditions. Rates of hospital admissions and deaths among individuals with no long term conditions were 96.3 and 0.8 per 1000 person years, respectively. Compared with those with no long term conditions, the adjusted incidence rate ratio of hospital admissions were 11.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 9.4 to 12.7) for those with a combination of cancer, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes mellitus; 9.8 (8.3 to 11.4) for those with cancer, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, and osteoarthritis; and 9.6 (8.6 to 10.7) for those with cancer, chronic kidney disease, and cardiovascular disease. Compared with those with no long term conditions, the adjusted rate ratio of death was 21.4 (17.5 to 26.0) for those with chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, and dementia; 23.2 (17.5 to 30.3) for those with cancer, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, and dementia; and 24.3 (19.1 to 30.4) for those with chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, dementia, and osteoarthritis. Cardiovascular disease with dementia appeared in all of the top five combinations of multiple long term conditions for mortality, and this two disease combination was associated with a substantially higher rate of death than many three, four, and five disease combinations.Conclusions In this study, rates of hospital admission and death varied by combinations of multiple long term conditions and were substantially higher in those with than in those without any long term conditions. High risk combinations for prioritisation and preventive action by policy makers were highlighted to help manage the challenges imposed by winter pressures on the NHS.

Objective To explore the risk of a positive test result for the delta or omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in different occupations and deprivation groups in the UK.Design Analysis of the longitudinal COVID-19 Infection Survey.Setting COVID-19 Infection Survey, conducted by the Office for National Statistics and the University of Oxford, UK, a nationwide longitudinal survey to monitor SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community, 26 April 2020 to 31 January 2022.Participants Survey participants recruited from randomly selected households to reflect the UK population (England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland) were divided into the delta cohort (2 July 2020 to 19 December 2021) and the omicron variant (on or after 20 December 2021), the dominant variants during our study period.Main outcome measures Incidence rate and incidence rate ratio for the presence of the delta and omicron variants by area level deprivation and occupation sector. Multivariable Poisson regression models were fitted to estimate the adjusted incidence rate ratio after adjusting for age, sex, ethnic group, comorbid conditions, urban or rural residence, household size, patient or client facing job, and time (as quarters of the year).Results 329 356 participants were included in the delta cohort and 246 061 in the omicron cohort. The crude incidence rate for the presence of the delta and omicron variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus were higher in the most deprived group (based on the index of multiple deprivation divided by deciles; delta cohort 4.33 per 1000 person months, 95% confidence interval 4.09 to 4.58; omicron cohort 76.67 per 1000 person months, 71.60 to 82.11) than in the least deprived group (3.18, 3.05 to 3.31 and 54.52, 51.93 to 57.24, respectively); the corresponding adjusted incidence rate ratios were 1.37 (95% confidence interval 1.29 to 1.47) and 1.34 (1.24 to 1.46) during the delta and omicron variant dominant periods, respectively. The adjusted incidence rate ratios for a positive test result in the most deprived group compared with the least deprived group in the delta cohort were 1.59 (95% confidence interval 1.25 to 2.02) and 1.50 (1.19 to 1.87) in the healthcare and manufacturing or construction sectors, respectively. Corresponding values in the omicron cohort were 1.50 (1.15 to 1.95) and 1.43 (1.09 to 1.86) in the healthcare and teaching and education sectors, respectively. Associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection and other employment sectors were not significant or were not tested because of small numbers.Conclusion In this study, the risk of a positive test result for the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the delta and omicron cohorts was higher in the most deprived than in the least deprived group in the healthcare, manufacturing or construction, and teaching and education sectors.

Objectives To classify older adults into clusters based on accumulating long-term conditions (LTC) as trajectories, characterise clusters and quantify their associations with all-cause mortality.Design We conducted a longitudinal study using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing over 9 years (n=15 091 aged 50 years and older). Group-based trajectory modelling was used to classify people into clusters based on accumulating LTC over time. Derived clusters were used to quantify the associations between trajectory memberships, sociodemographic characteristics and all-cause mortality by conducting regression models.Results Five distinct clusters of accumulating LTC trajectories were identified and characterised as: ‘no LTC’ (18.57%), ‘single LTC’ (31.21%), ‘evolving multimorbidity’ (25.82%), ‘moderate multimorbidity’ (17.12%) and ‘high multimorbidity’ (7.27%). Increasing age was consistently associated with a larger number of LTCs. Ethnic minorities (adjusted OR=2.04; 95% CI 1.40 to 3.00) were associated with the ‘high multimorbidity’ cluster. Higher education and paid employment were associated with a lower likelihood of progression over time towards an increased number of LTCs. All the clusters had higher all-cause mortality than the ‘no LTC’ cluster.Conclusions The development of multimorbidity in the number of conditions over time follows distinct trajectories. These are determined by non-modifiable (age, ethnicity) and modifiable factors (education and employment). Stratifying risk through clustering will enable practitioners to identify older adults with a higher likelihood of worsening LTC over time to tailor effective interventions to prevent mortality.

Abstract Background Heterogeneous studies have demonstrated ethnic inequalities in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and adverse COVID-19 outcomes. This study evaluates the association between ethnicity and COVID-19 outcomes in two large population-based cohorts from England and Canada and investigates potential explanatory factors for ethnic patterning of severe outcomes. Methods We identified adults aged 18 to 99 years in the QResearch primary care (England) and Ontario (Canada) healthcare administrative population-based datasets (start of follow-up: 24th and 25th Jan 2020 in England and Canada, respectively; end of follow-up: 31st Oct and 30th Sept 2020, respectively). We harmonised the definitions and the design of two cohorts to investigate associations between ethnicity and COVID-19-related death, hospitalisation, and intensive care (ICU) admission, adjusted for confounders, and combined the estimates obtained from survival analyses. We calculated the ‘percentage of excess risk mediated’ by these risk factors in the QResearch cohort. Results There were 9.83 million adults in the QResearch cohort (11,597 deaths; 21,917 hospitalisations; 2932 ICU admissions) and 10.27 million adults in the Ontario cohort (951 deaths; 5132 hospitalisations; 1191 ICU admissions). Compared to the general population, pooled random-effects estimates showed that South Asian ethnicity was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 death (hazard ratio: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.09-2.44), hospitalisation (1.53; 1.32-1.76), and ICU admission (1.67; 1.23-2.28). Associations with ethnic groups were consistent across levels of deprivation. In QResearch, sociodemographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors accounted for 42.9% (South Asian) and 39.4% (Black) of the excess risk of COVID-19 death. Conclusion International population-level analyses demonstrate clear ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 risks. Policymakers should be cognisant of the increased risks in some ethnic populations and design equitable health policy as the pandemic continues.

Background: The range and scope of electronic health record (EHR) data assets in the UK has recently increased, which has been mainly in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Summarising and comparing the large primary care resources will help researchers to choose the data resources most suited to their needs. Aim: To describe the current landscape of UK EHR databases and considerations of access and use of these resources relevant to researchers. Design & setting: Narrative review of EHR databases in the UK. Method: Information was collected from the Health Data Research Innovation Gateway, publicly available websites and other published data, and from key informants. The eligibility criteria were population-based open-access databases sampling EHRs across the whole population of one or more countries in the UK. Published database characteristics were extracted and summarised, and these were corroborated with resource providers. Results were synthesised narratively. Results: Nine large national primary care EHR data resources were identified and summarised. These resources are enhanced by linkage to other administrative data to a varying extent. Resources are mainly intended to support observational research, although some can support experimental studies. There is considerable overlap of populations covered. While all resources are accessible to bona fide researchers, access mechanisms, costs, timescales, and other considerations vary across databases. Conclusion: Researchers are currently able to access primary care EHR data from several sources. Choice of data resource is likely to be driven by project needs and access considerations. The landscape of data resources based on primary care EHRs in the UK continues to evolve.

Objectives Uptake of influenza, pneumococcal and shingles vaccines in older adults vary across regions and socioeconomic backgrounds. In this study, we study the coverage and factors associated with vaccination uptake, as well as refusal in the unvaccinated population and their associations with ethnicity, deprivation, household size and health conditions.Design, setting and participants This is a cross-sectional study of adults aged 65 years or older in England, using a large primary care database. Associations of vaccine uptake and refusal in the unvaccinated with ethnicity, deprivation, household size and health conditions were modelled using multivariable logistic regression.Outcome measure Influenza, pneumococcal and shingles vaccine uptake and refusal (in the unvaccinated).Results This study included 2 054 463 patients from 1318 general practices. 1 711 465 (83.3%) received at least one influenza vaccine, 1 391 228 (67.7%) pneumococcal vaccine and 690 783 (53.4%) shingles vaccine. Compared with White ethnicity, influenza vaccine uptake was lower in Chinese (OR 0.49; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.53), ‘Other ethnic’ groups (0.63; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.65), black Caribbean (0.68; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.71) and black African (0.72; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.77). There was generally lower vaccination uptake among more deprived individuals, people living in larger household sizes (three or more persons) and those with fewer health conditions. Among those who were unvaccinated, higher odds of refusal were associated with the black Caribbean ethnic group and marginally with increased deprivation, but not associated with higher refusal in those living in large households or those with lesser health conditions.Conclusion Certain ethnic minority groups, deprived populations, large households and 'healthier' individuals were less likely to receive a vaccine, although higher refusal was only associated with ethnicity and deprivation but not larger households nor healthier individuals. Understanding these may inform tailored public health messaging to different communities for equitable implementation of vaccination programmes.

Abstract Background As the prevalence of older adults with multimorbidity increases, greater integration of services is necessary to manage the physical and psycho-social needs of this cohort. This study describes and summarises current evidence, clinical provision and progress towards integrated primary care and social services for older adults with multimorbidity in England. Methods A scoping review was conducted involving systematic searches of a range of electronic academic and policy databases. Articles were screened and extracted in duplicate by two independent reviewers. Data were extracted onto a charting sheet and thematic synthesis was used to summarise findings. Articles were included if published in English and related to primary care, social care and multimorbidity in older adults in England. Conceptually, the review was framed using the Rainbow Model of Integrated Care. Results The search yielded 7656 articles of which 84 were included. Three themes were identified: (1) a focus on individual level services rather than multi-level or multi-sector integration, with an increasing emphasis on the need to consider broader determinants of population health as critical to integrated care for older adults with multimorbidity; (2) the need for policymakers to allow time for integration to embed, to enable new structures and relationships to develop and mature; and (3) the inherent tension between top-down and bottom-up driven approaches to integrated care requires a whole-systems structure, while allowing for local flexibilities. Conclusions There is limited evidence of multi-level and multi-sector integration of services for older adults with multimorbidity in England. The literature increasingly acknowledges wider determinants of population health that are likely to require integration beyond primary care and social services. Improving clinical care in one or two sectors may not be as effective as simultaneously improving the organisation or design across services as one single system of provision. This may take time to establish and will require local input.

Biochemical remission of type 2 diabetes is achievable through dietary changes, physical activity and subsequent weight loss. We aim to identify distinct diabetes remission trajectories in a large population-based cohort over seven-years follow-up and to examine associations between remission trajectories and diabetes complications. Group-based trajectory modelling examined longitudinal patterns of HbA1c level (adjusting for remission status) over time. Multivariable Cox models quantified the association between each remission trajectory and microvascular complications, macrovascular complications, cardiovascular (CVD) events and all-cause mortality. Four groups were assigned. Group 1 (8,112 [13.5%]; achieving HbA1c 48 mmol/mol (6.5%)); Group 3 (36,557 [60.6%]; stable high HbA1c levels); Group 4 (9,249 [15.3%]; stable low HbA1c levels (

Background: Worldwide there are an estimated 463 million people with diabetes. In the UK people with diabetes are offered annual review, which includes monitoring of haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). This can identify people with diabetes who are not meeting their glycaemic targets, enabling early intervention. Those who do not attend these reviews often have poorer health outcomes. During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a 77% reduction in monitoring of HbA1c in the UK. Aim: It is hypothesised that people with diabetes could take finger-prick samples at home for measurement of HbA1c. This study will examine the agreement and correlation of capillary HbA1c values compared with a venous reference standard. It will explore reliability and repeatability of capillary HbA1c testing methods, as well as the direction of effect of storage variables. The study will also explore patient acceptability and safety. It will look at capillary blood methods that would be suitable for posting. Design & setting: A systematic review will be undertaken. Method: The core terms of ‘Diabetes’, ‘HbA1c’ and ‘Capillary sampling’ will be used to search MEDLINE, Embase, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Web of Science Core Collection, Google Scholar, OpenGrey, and other grey literature, from database inception until 2021. Risk of bias will be assessed using the ‘COSMIN Risk of Bias tool to assess the quality of studies on reliability and measurement error’. Conclusion: A narrative synthesis will be produced to explore whether there are viable postal alternatives to venous sampling, as well as exploring acceptability and safety of patient self-collection.

Background: A more comprehensive understanding and measurement of adult social care need could contribute to efforts to develop more effective, holistic personalised care, particularly for those with multiple long-term conditions (MLTC). Progress in this area faces the challenge of a lack of clarity in the literature relating to how social care need is assessed and coded within variables included in primary care databases. Aim: To explore how social care need is assessed and coded within variables included in primary care databases. Design & setting: An exploratory rapid scoping review of peer-reviewed articles and grey literature. Method: Articles were screened and extracted onto a charting sheet and findings were summarised descriptively. Articles were included if published in English and related to primary and social care using data from national primary care databases. Results: The search yielded 4010 articles. Twenty-seven were included. Six articles used the term ‘social care need’, although related terminology was identified including ‘need factors’, ‘social support’, and ‘social care support’. Articles mainly focused on specific components of social care need, including levels of social care usage or service utilisation and costs incurred to social care, primary care, and other providers in addressing needs. A limited range of database variables were found measuring social care need. Conclusion: Further research is needed on how social care need has been defined in a UK context and captured in primary care big databases. There is potential scope to broaden the definition of social care need, which captures social service needs and wider social needs.

Background: Practitioner expressions of optimism and empathy may improve treatment engagement, adherence, and patient satisfaction but are not delivered consistently amid the challenges of everyday clinical practice. Aim: To explore primary care practitioner (PCP) views about optimistic and empathic communication in consultations; and to identify behavioural, attitudinal, and/or contextual issues likely to encourage or deter PCPs from practising such communication. Design & setting: Qualitative interview study with 20 PCPs (GPs, practice nurses, and primary care physiotherapists). Method: Semi-structured telephone interviews with 20 PCPs. Data were analysed thematically. Results: A conceptual mismatch between optimism and patient expectations became apparent; when asked how PCPs communicate about the likely effects of a treatment, answers were focussed around managing patient expectations. When prompted, it became clear PCPs were open to communicating optimistically with patients, but emphasised the need for realism. Concerns arose that patients may not be receptive to optimistic messages, especially when holding negative expectations. PCPs felt that expressing empathy is fundamental to all clinical consultations, noting that it can be challenging. Some PCPs worried that increasing expressions of empathy might increase their risk of clinician burnout and felt guilty about (appropriately) communicating empathy while maintaining some emotional distance. Conclusion: PCPs agreed expressing realistic optimism during consultations could aid communication and would constitute a novel change to practice. PCPs strive for clinical empathy but can struggle to manage emotional self-protection. Specific training to help PCPs express realistic optimism and empathy, and better utilise efficient non-verbal skills could help these issues.

Abstract Background The successful management of hypertension requires sustained engagement in self-care behaviour such as adhering to medication regimens and diet. Bandura’s Social Cognitive Theory suggests that self-efficacy is a major determinant of engagement in self-care behaviour. Self-efficacy refers to an individual’s belief in their capacity to execute behaviours necessary to produce specific performance attainments. This systematic review of observational studies aims to summarise and evaluate the quality of evidence available to support the association between self-efficacy and engagement in self-care behaviour in hypertension. Methods Searches were performed of the Pubmed, MEDLINE, CINAHL and OpenSIGLE databases from database inception to January 2020. Reference lists and individual journals were also hand searched. Observational studies in English quantifying self-efficacy and self-care behaviour in hypertensive adults were included. The quality of included articles was assessed with the National Institute of Health Quality Assessment Tool for observational studies. Results The literature search identified 102 studies, of which 22 met the inclusion criteria for full-text review. There were 21 studies which reported that higher self-efficacy was associated with engagement in self-care behaviours including medication adherence (n = 9), physical activity (n = 2) and dietary changes (n = 1). Of these, 12 studies were rated as ‘good’ on the quality assessment tool and 10 were ‘fair’. A common limitation in these studies was a lack of objectivity due to their reliance on self-reporting of engagement in self-care behaviour. Conclusion Our review suggests an association between self-efficacy and self-care. However, the evidence supporting this association is of low to medium quality and is limited by heterogeneity. Our findings suggest the need for further well-designed interventional studies to investigate this association.

BackgroundMultiple long-term health conditions (multimorbidity) (MLTC-M) are increasingly prevalent and associated with high rates of morbidity, mortality, and health care expenditure. Strategies to address this have primarily focused on the biological aspects of disease, but MLTC-M also result from and are associated with additional psychosocial, economic, and environmental barriers. A shift toward more personalized, holistic, and integrated care could be effective. This could be made more efficient by identifying groups of populations based on their health and social needs. In turn, these will contribute to evidence-based solutions supporting delivery of interventions tailored to address the needs pertinent to each cluster. Evidence is needed on how to generate clusters based on health and social needs and quantify the impact of clusters on long-term health and costs. ObjectiveWe intend to develop and validate population clusters that consider determinants of health and social care needs for people with MLTC-M using data-driven machine learning (ML) methods compared to expert-driven approaches within primary care national databases, followed by evaluation of cluster trajectories and their association with health outcomes and costs. MethodsThe mixed methods program of work with parallel work streams include the following: (1) qualitative semistructured interview studies exploring patient, caregiver, and professional views on clinical and socioeconomic factors influencing experiences of living with or seeking care in MLTC-M; (2) modified Delphi with relevant stakeholders to generate variables on health and social (wider) determinants and to examine the feasibility of including these variables within existing primary care databases; and (3) cohort study with expert-driven segmentation, alongside data-driven algorithms. Outputs will be compared, clusters characterized, and trajectories over time examined to quantify associations with mortality, additional long-term conditions, worsening frailty, disease severity, and 10-year health and social care costs. ResultsThe study will commence in October 2021 and is expected to be completed by October 2023. ConclusionsBy studying MLTC-M clusters, we will assess how more personalized care can be developed, how accurate costs can be provided, and how to better understand the personal and medical profiles and environment of individuals within each cluster. Integrated care that considers “whole persons” and their environment is essential in addressing the complex, diverse, and individual needs of people living with MLTC-M. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)PRR1-10.2196/34405

Background Weight loss, hyperglycaemia and diabetes are known features of pancreatic cancer. We quantified the timing and the amount of changes in body mass index (BMI) and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), and their association with pancreatic cancer from five years before diagnosis. Methods A matched case-control study was undertaken within 590 primary care practices in England, United Kingdom. 8,777 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer (cases) between 1st January 2007 and 31st August 2020 were matched to 34,979 controls by age, gender and diabetes. Longitudinal trends in BMI and HbA1c were visualised. Odds ratios adjusted for demographic and lifestyle factors (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated with conditional logistic regression. Subgroup analyses were undertaken according to the diabetes status. Results Changes in BMI and HbA1c observed for cases on longitudinal plots started one and two years (respectively) before diagnosis. In the year before diagnosis, a 1 kg/m2 decrease in BMI between cases and controls was associated with aOR for pancreatic cancer of 1.05 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.06), and a 1 mmol/mol increase in HbA1c was associated with aOR of 1.06 (1.06 to 1.07). ORs remained statistically significant (p < 0.001) for 2 years before pancreatic cancer diagnosis for BMI and 3 years for HbA1c. Subgroup analysis revealed that the decrease in BMI was associated with a higher pancreatic cancer risk for people with diabetes than for people without (aORs 1.08, 1.06 to 1.09 versus 1.04, 1.03 to 1.05), but the increase in HbA1c was associated with a higher risk for people without diabetes than for people with diabetes (aORs 1.09, 1.07 to 1.11 versus 1.04, 1.03 to 1.04). Conclusions The statistically significant changes in weight and glycaemic control started three years before pancreatic cancer diagnosis but varied according to the diabetes status. The information from this study could be used to detect pancreatic cancer earlier than is currently achieved. However, regular BMI and HbA1c measurements are required to facilitate future research and implementation in clinical practice.

Background: Empathic communication and positive messages are important components of “placebo” effects and can improve patient outcomes, including pain. Communicating empathy and optimism to patients within consultations may also enhance the effects of verum, i.e., non-placebo, treatments. This is particularly relevant for osteoarthritis, which is common, costly and difficult to manage. Digital interventions can be effective tools for changing practitioner behavior. This paper describes the systematic planning, development and optimization of an online intervention—“Empathico”–to help primary healthcare practitioners enhance their communication of clinical empathy and realistic optimism during consultations.Methods: The Person-Based Approach to intervention development was used. This entailed integrating insights from placebo and behavior change theory and evidence, and conducting primary and secondary qualitative research. Systematic literature reviews identified barriers, facilitators, and promising methods for enhancing clinical empathy and realistic optimism. Qualitative studies explored practitioners' and patients' perspectives, initially on the communication of clinical empathy and realistic optimism and subsequently on different iterations of the Empathico intervention. Insights from the literature reviews, qualitative studies and public contributor input were integrated into a logic model, behavioral analysis and principles that guided intervention development and optimization.Results: The Empathico intervention comprises 7 sections: Introduction, Empathy, Optimism, Application of Empathico for Osteoarthritis, Reflection on my Consultations, Setting Goals and Further Resources. Iterative refinement of Empathico, using feedback from patients and practitioners, resulted in highly positive feedback and helped to (1) contextualize evidence-based recommendations from placebo studies within the complexities of primary healthcare consultations and (2) ensure the intervention addressed practitioners' and patients' concerns and priorities.Conclusions: We have developed an evidence-based, theoretically-grounded intervention that should enable practitioners to better harness placebo effects of communication in consultations. The extensive use of qualitative research throughout the development and optimization process ensured that Empathico is highly acceptable and meaningful to practitioners. This means that practitioners are more likely to engage with Empathico and make changes to enhance their communication of clinical empathy and realistic optimism in clinical practice. Empathico is now ready to be evaluated in a large-scale randomized trial to explore its impact on patient outcomes.

Background: The current GP workforce is insufficient to manage rising demand in patient care within out-of-hours (OOH) primary care services. To meet this challenge, non-medical practitioners (NMPs) are employed to fulfil tasks traditionally carried out by GPs. It is important to learn from experiences of task-shifting in this setting to inform optimal delivery of care. Aim: To synthesise qualitative evidence of experiences of task-shifting in the OOH primary care setting. Design & setting: Systematic review of qualitative studies and thematic synthesis. Method: Electronic searches were conducted across CINAHL (Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature), PsychINFO, Cochrane, MEDLINE, Embase, and OpenGrey for qualitative studies of urgent or OOH primary care services, utilising task-shifting or role delegation. Included articles were quality appraised and key findings collated through thematic synthesis. Results: A total of 2497 studies were screened, of which six met the inclusion criteria. These included interviews with 15 advanced nurse practitioners (ANPs), three physician assistants (PAs), two paramedics, and a focus group of 22 GPs, and focus groups with 33 nurses. Key findings highlight the importance of clearly defining and communicating the scope of practice of NMPs, and of building their confidence by appropriate training, support, and mentoring. Conclusion: While NMPs may have the potential to make a substantial contribution to OOH primary care services, there has been very little research on experiences of task-shifting. Evidence to date highlights the need for further training specific to OOH services. Mentorship and support to manage the sometimes challenging cases presenting to OOH could enable more effective OOH services and better patient care.

Abstract Aim To quantify the association between type 2 diabetes remission and 5‐year incidence of cardiovascular disease outcomes, overall and in pre‐defined subgroups. Methods Retrospective cohort analysis of 60,287 adults with type 2 diabetes from the Care and Health Information Analytics (CHIA) database. Multivariable Cox models were used to assess the association between remission within the first two years of follow‐up and incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes including events, microvascular and macrovascular complications at 7‐year follow‐up. Effect modification by age, sex, diabetes duration, pre‐existing CVD, baseline body mass index (BMI) and HbA1c level was assessed. Results 7489 (12.4%) people achieved remission during the first two years of follow‐up. Overall, remission was associated with lower risk of CVD outcomes. Remission was associated with lower risk of microvascular complications for younger compared with older age groups (eg aHR: 0.59 (0.41–0.84) and aHR: 0.78 (0.67–0.92) for those aged

Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) causes pain and disability. An empathic optimistic consultation approach can improve patient quality of life, satisfaction with care, and reduce pain. However, expressing empathic optimism may be overlooked in busy primary care consultations and there is limited understanding of patients’ views about this approach. Aim: To explore patients’ perspectives on clinician communication of empathy and optimism in primary care OA consultations. Design & setting: Vignette study with qualitative semi-structured interviews. Purposefully sampled patients (n = 33) aged >45 years with hip or knee OA from GP practices in Wessex (Hampshire, Dorest, Wiltshire, and Somerset). Method: Fifteen participants watched two filmed OA consultations with a GP, and 18 participants read two case vignettes. In both formats, one GP depicted an empathic optimistic approach and one GP had a ‘neutral’ approach. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with all participants and analysed using thematic analysis. Results: Patients recognised that empathic communication enhanced interactions, helping to engender a sense of trust in their clinician. They felt it was acceptable for GPs to convey optimism only if it was realistic, personalised, and embedded within an empathic consultation. Discussing patients’ experiences and views with them, and conveying an accurate understanding of these experiences improves the credibility of optimistic messages. Conclusion: Patients value communication with empathy and optimism, but it requires a fine balance to ensure messages remain realistic and trustworthy. Increased use of a realistic optimistic approach within an empathic consultation could enhance consultations for OA and other chronic conditions, and improve patient outcomes. Digital training to help GPs implement these findings is being developed.

Introduction Recent evidence suggests that ethnic minority groups are disproportionately at increased risk of hospitalisation and death from SARS-CoV-2 infection. Population-based evidence on potential explanatory factors across minority groups and within subgroups is lacking. This study aims to quantify the association between ethnicity and the risk of hospitalisation and mortality due to COVID-19.Methods and analysis This is a retrospective cohort study of adults registered across a representative and anonymised national primary care database (QResearch) that includes data on 10 million people in England. Sociodemographic, deprivation, clinical and domicile characteristics will be summarised and compared across ethnic subgroups (categorised as per 2011 census). Cox models will be used to calculate HR for hospitalisation and COVID-19 mortality associated with ethnic group. Potential confounding and explanatory factors (such as demographic, socioeconomic and clinical) will be adjusted for within regression models. The percentage contribution of distinct risk factor classes to the excess risks seen in ethnic groups/subgroups will be calculated.Ethics and dissemination The study has undergone ethics review in accordance with the QResearch agreement (reference OX102). Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed manuscripts, presentations at scientific meetings and conferences with national and international stakeholders.

Introduction Recent evidence suggests that influenza vaccination may offer protection against COVID-19 severity. Our aim was to quantify the association between influenza vaccination status and risk of hospitalisation or all-cause mortality in people diagnosed with COVID-19.Methods A retrospective cohort study using routinely collected health records from patients registered to a General Practitioner (GP) practice in South West England within the Electronic Care and Health Information Analytics database. The cohort included 6921 people with COVID-19 during the first wave of the pandemic (1 January–31 July 2020). Data on influenza vaccination, hospitalisation and all-cause mortality were ascertained through linked clinical and demographic records. We applied propensity score methods (stabilised inverse probability of treatment weight) to quantify the association between influenza vaccination status and COVID-19 outcomes (hospitalisation or all-cause mortality).Results 2613 (38%) participants received an influenza vaccination between 1 January 2019 and COVID-19 diagnosis. Receipt of influenza vaccination was associated with a significantly lower odds of hospitalisation or all-cause mortality (adjusted OR: 0.85, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.97, p=0.02), and 24% reduced odds of all-cause mortality (adjusted OR: 0.76, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.90).Discussion Influenza vaccination was associated with a 15%–24% lower odds of severe COVID-19 outcomes. The current UK influenza vaccination programme needs urgent expansion as an integral component of the ongoing response plans to the COVID-19 pandemic.

BackgroundTreatment burden is the effort required of patients to look after their health and the impact this has on their functioning and wellbeing. It is likely treatment burden changes over time as circumstances change for patients and health services. However, there are a lack of population-level studies of treatment burden change and factors associated with this change over time. Furthermore, there are currently no practical screening tools for treatment burden in time-pressured clinical settings or at population level.Methods and analysisThis is a three-year follow-up of a cross-sectional survey of 723 people with multimorbidity (defined as three or more long-term conditions; LTCs) registered at GP practices in in Dorset, England. The survey will repeat collection of information on treatment burden (using the 10-item Multimorbidity Treatment Burden Questionnaire (MTBQ) and a novel single-item screening tool), sociodemographics, medications, LTCs, health literacy and financial resource, as at baseline. Descriptive statistics will be used to compare change in treatment burden since the baseline survey in 2019 and associations of treatment burden change will be assessed using regression methods. Diagnostic test accuracy metrics will be used to evaluate the single-item treatment burden screening tool using the MTBQ as the gold-standard. Routine primary care data (including demographics, medications, LTCs, and healthcare usage data) will be extracted from medical records for consenting participants. A forward-stepwise, likelihood-ratio logistic regression model building approach will be employed in order to assess the utility of routine data metrics in quantifying treatment burden in comparison to self-reported treatment burden using the MTBQ.ImpactTo the authors' knowledge, this will be the first study investigating longitudinal aspects of treatment burden. Findings will improve understanding of the extent to which treatment burden changes over time for people with multimorbidity and factors contributing to this change, as well as allowing better identification of people at risk of high treatment burden.

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 virus causing COVID-19 binds human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors in human tissues. ACE2 expression may be associated with COVID-19 infection and mortality rates. Routinely prescribed drugs that up- or down-regulate ACE2 expression are, therefore, of critical research interest as agents that might promote or reduce risk of COVID-19 infection in a susceptible population. Aim: To collate evidence on routinely prescribed drug treatments in the UK that could up- or down-regulate ACE2, and thus potentially affect COVID-19 infection. Design & setting: Systematic review of studies published in MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature), the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science from inception to 1 April 2020. Method: A systematic review will be conducted in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. Inclusion criteria will be: (1) assesses the effect of drug exposure on ACE2 level of expression or activity; (2) the drug is included in the British National Formulary (BNF) and, therefore, available to prescribe in the UK; and (3) a control, placebo, or sham group is included as comparator. Exclusion criteria will be: (1) ACE2 measurement in utero; (2) ACE2 measurement in children aged