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The long-term multilocus sequence typing (MLST) analysis of the population structure and dynamics of Finnish human Campylobacter jejuni isolates, as well as chicken isolates, is described. The results have shown that the importance of chicken as a reservoir for strains associated with human infections has declined despite the increase in the consumption of domestic chicken meat.

Shiga toxin-producing, sorbitol-fermenting Escherichia coli O157 ( SF O157) has emerged as a cause of severe human illness. Despite frequent human findings, its transmission routes and reservoirs remain largely unknown. Foodborne transmission and reservoir in cattle have been suspected, but with limited supporting evidence. This study describes the outbreak of SF O157 that occurred in Finland in 2012. The outbreak originated from a recreational farm selling unpasteurized milk, as revealed by epidemiologic and microbiological investigations, and involved six hospitalized children and two asymptomatic adults with culture-confirmed infection. An identical strain of SF O157 was isolated from patients, cattle and the farm environment, and epidemiologic analysis suggested unpasteurized milk as the vehicle of transmission. This study reports the first milkborne outbreak of SF O157, provides supporting evidence of cattle as a reservoir and highlights the health risks related to the consumption of unpasteurized milk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prevalence of human pathogenic Yersinia enterocolitica was determined in tonsil and intestinal content samples from 388 healthy fattening pigs at the four biggest Finnish slaughterhouses. These slaughterhouses process 73% of pigs in Finland. Tonsil samples were tested by PCR targeted for yadA, and intestinal samples were cultured. All pathogenic Y. enterocolitica isolates represented bioserotype 4/O:3. The prevalence of Y. enterocolitica in tonsil samples was 60% (95% confidence limit, 55.4 to 65.1%), and its prevalence in intestinal samples was 26% (95% confidence limit, 22.1 to 31.2%). The prevalence of Y. enterocolitica in tonsil and intestinal samples varied between the four slaughterhouses. The tonsil prevalence of Y. enterocolitica was higher in slaughterhouse B, and the prevalence in intestinal content was higher in slaughterhouse C. There were more positive results in both tonsil and intestinal samples in pigs coming from fattening farms than in pigs coming from farrowing-and-fattening farms. A seasonal variation was observed in the prevalence of Y. enterocolitica in intestinal samples, with the highest prevalence during July and August, but no seasonal variation was detected in tonsil samples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of Yersinia pseudotuberculosis infection have been epidemiologically linked to fresh produce, but the bacterium has not been recovered from the food items implicated. In May 2003, a cluster of gastrointestinal illness and erythema nodosum was detected among schoolchildren who had eaten lunches prepared by the same institutional kitchen. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study and trace-back, environmental, and laboratory investigations. Case patients had culture-confirmed Y. pseudotuberculosis O:1 infection, erythema nodosum, or reactive arthritis. Bacterial isolates from clinical and environmental samples were compared using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). RESULTS: Of 7392 persons at risk, 111 (1.5%) met the case definition; 76 case patients and 172 healthy control subjects were enrolled in the case-control study. Only raw grated carrots were significantly associated with illness in a logistic-regression model (multivariable odds ratio, 5.7 [95% confidence interval, 1.7-19.5]); a dose response was found for increasing amount of consumption. Y. pseudotuberculosis O:1 isolates from 39 stool specimens and from 5 (42%) of 12 soil samples that contained carrot residue and were obtained from peeling and washing equipment at the production farm were indistinguishable by PFGE. CONCLUSIONS: Carrots contaminated early in the production process caused a large point-source outbreak. Our findings enable the development of evidence-based strategies to prevent outbreaks of this emerging foodborne pathogen. Copyright © 2006 Infectious Diseases Society of America [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foodborne pathogen Listeria monocytogenes may cause serious, life-threatening disease in susceptible persons. We combined data from Finnish national listeriosis surveillance, patient interview responses, and laboratory data of patient samples and compared them to listeria findings from food and food production plants collected as part of outbreak investigations during 2011-2021. The incidence of invasive listeriosis in Finland (1.3/100000 in 2021) is higher than the EU average (0.5/100000 in 2021), and most cases are observed in the elderly with a predisposing condition. Many cases reported consuming high-risk foods as well as improper food storage. Since ongoing patient interviews and whole genome sequencing were introduced, several listeriosis outbreaks were detected and food sources identified. Recommendations about high-risk foods for listeriosis and proper food storage should be better communicated to susceptible people. In Finland, patient interviews and typing and comparing listeria isolates in foods and patient samples are crucial in solving outbreaks and determining measures to control invasive listeriosis.

Small mammals are known to carry Campylobacter spp.; however, little is known about the genotypes and their role in human infections. We studied intestinal content from small wild mammals collected in their natural habitats in Finland in 2010-2017, and in close proximity to 40 pig or cattle farms in 2017. The animals were trapped using traditional Finnish metal snap traps. Campylobacter spp. were isolated from the intestinal content using direct plating on mCCDA. A total of 19% of the captured wild animals ( n = 577) and 41% of the pooled farm samples ( n = 227) were positive for C. jejuni , which was the only Campylobacter species identified. The highest prevalence occurred in yellow-necked mice ( Apodemus flavicollis ) and bank voles ( Myodes glareolus ) which carried Campylobacter spp. in 66.3 and 63.9% of the farm samples and 41.5 and 24.4% of individual animals trapped from natural habitats, respectively. Interestingly, all house mouse ( Mus musculus ) and shrew ( Sorex spp.) samples were negative for Campylobacter spp. C. jejuni isolates ( n = 145) were further characterized by whole-genome sequencing. Core genome multilocus sequence typing (cgMLST) clustering showed that mouse and vole strains were separated from the rest of the C. jejuni population (636 and 671 allelic differences, 94 and 99% of core loci, respectively). Very little or no alleles were shared with C. jejuni genomes described earlier from livestock or human isolates. FastANI results further indicated that C. jejuni strains from voles are likely to represent a new previously undescribed species or subspecies of Campylobacter . Core-genome phylogeny showed that there was no difference between isolates originating from the farm and wild captured animals. Instead, the phylogeny followed the host species-association. There was some evidence (one strain each) of livestock-associated C. jejuni occurring in a farm-caught A. flavicollis and a brown rat ( Rattus norvegicus ), indicating that although small mammals may not be the original reservoir of Campylobacter colonizing livestock, they may sporadically carry C. jejuni strains occurring mainly in livestock and be associated with disease in humans., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Olkkola, Rossi, Jaakkonen, Simola, Tikkanen, Hakkinen, Tuominen, Huitu, Niemimaa, Henttonen and Kivistö.)

Campylobacter jejuni has caused several campylobacteriosis outbreaks via raw milk consumption. This study reports follow-up of a milk-borne campylobacteriosis outbreak that revealed persistent C. jejuni contamination of bulk tank milk for seven months or longer. Only the outbreak-causing strain, representing sequence type (ST) 883, was isolated from milk, although other C. jejuni STs were also isolated from the farm. We hypothesized that the outbreak strain harbors features that aid its environmental transmission or survival in milk. To identify such phenotypic features, the outbreak strain was characterized for survival in refrigerated raw milk and in aerobic broth culture by plate counting and for biofilm formation on microplates by crystal violet staining and quantification. Furthermore, whole-genome sequences were studied for such genotypic features. For comparison, we characterized isolates representing other STs from the same farm and an ST-883 isolate that persisted on another dairy farm, but was not isolated from bulk tank milk. With high inocula (105 CFU/ml), ST-883 strains survived in refrigerated raw milk longer (4-6 days) than the other strains (≤3 days), but the outbreak strain showed no outperformance among ST-883 strains. This suggests that ST-883 strains may share features that aid their survival in milk, but other mechanisms are required for persistence in milk. No correlation was observed between survival in refrigerated milk and aerotolerance. The outbreak strain formed a biofilm, offering a potential explanation for persistence in milk. Whether biofilm formation was affected by pTet-like genomic element and phase-variable genes encoding capsular methyltransferase and cytochrome C551 peroxidase warrants further study. This study suggests a phenotypic target candidate for interventions and genetic markers for the phenotype, which should be investigated further with the final aim of developing control strategies against C. jejuni infections., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

In November 2016, an elderly patient was diagnosed with Listeria monocytogenes bacteremia in Finland. Grocery store loyalty card records and microbiological investigation of foods found in the home fridge and freezer of the patient revealed commercial, modified-atmosphere packaged meatballs as the source of the infection. Investigation of the meatball production plant revealed that the floor drain samples were contaminated with the same L. monocytogenes strain as those isolated from the patient and meatballs. Ready-to-eat meatballs were likely contaminated after heat treatment from the production environment before packaging. Long-term cold storage, modified-atmosphere conditions, and the absence of competing bacteria presumably enhanced the growth of L. monocytogenes . We recommend that collection of shopping details and home fridge and freezer sampling should be part of surveillance of all cases of L. monocytogenes infections to complement information obtained from in-depth interviews.

Packaged raw milk contaminated with Yersinia pseudotuberculosis mediated a large yersiniosis outbreak in southern Finland in 2014. The outbreak was traced back to a single dairy farm in southern Finland. Here we explore risk factors leading to the outbreak through epidemiologic investigation of the outbreak farm and through genomic and phenotypic characterization of the farm's outbreak and non-outbreak associated Y. pseudotuberculosis strains. We show that the outbreak strain persisted on the farm throughout the 7-month study, whereas the non-outbreak strains occurred sporadically. Phylogenomic analysis illustrated that the outbreak strain was related to previously published genomes of wild animal isolates from Finland, implying that wild animals were a potential source of the outbreak strain to the farm. We observed allelic differences between the farm's outbreak and non-outbreak strains in several genes associated with virulence, stress response and biofilm formation, and found that the outbreak strain formed biofilm in vitro and maintained better growth fitness during cold stress than the non-outbreak strains. Finally, we demonstrate the rapid growth of the outbreak strain in packaged raw milk during refrigerated storage. This study provides insight of the risk factors leading to the Y. pseudotuberculosis outbreak, highlights the importance of pest control to avoid the spread of pathogens from wild to domestic animals, and demonstrates that the cold chain is insufficient as the sole risk management strategy to control Y. pseudotuberculosis risk associated with raw drinking milk.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) and Campylobacter jejuni are notable health hazards associated with the consumption of raw milk. These bacteria may colonize the intestines of asymptomatic cattle and enter bulk tank milk via fecal contamination during milking. We studied the frequency of STEC O157:H7 and C. jejuni contamination in tank milk ( n  = 785) and the in-line milk filters of milking machines ( n  = 631) versus the frequency of isolation from cattle feces ( n  = 257) on three Finnish dairy farms for 1 year. Despite simultaneous isolation of STEC O157:H7 (17%) or C. jejuni (53%) from cattle, these bacteria were rarely isolated from milk filters (2% or <1%, respectively) and milk (0%). As revealed by phylogenomics, one STEC O157:H7 strain at a time was detected on each farm and persisted for ≤12 months despite rigorous hygienic measures. C. jejuni strains of a generalist sequence type (ST-883 and ST-1080) persisted in the herds for ≥11 months, and several other C. jejuni types were detected sporadically. The stx gene carried by STEC was detected more frequently from milk filters (37%) than from milk (7%), suggesting that milk filters are more suitable sampling targets for monitoring than milk. A questionnaire of on-farm practices suggested lower stx contamination of milk when major cleansing in the barn, culling, or pasturing of dairy cows was applied, while a higher average outdoor temperature was associated with higher stx contamination. Because pathogen contamination occurred despite good hygiene and because pathogen detection from milk and milk filters proved challenging, we recommend heat treatment for raw milk before consumption. IMPORTANCE The increased popularity of raw milk consumption has created demand for relaxing legislation, despite the risk of contamination by pathogenic bacteria, notably STEC and C. jejuni However, the epidemiology of these milk-borne pathogens on the herd level is still poorly understood, and data are lacking on the frequency of milk contamination on farms with cattle shedding these bacteria in their feces. This study suggests (i) that STEC contamination in milk can be reduced, but not prevented, by on-farm hygienic measures while fecal shedding is observable, (ii) that milk filters are more suitable sampling targets for monitoring than milk although pathogen detection from both sample matrices may be challenging, and (iii) that STEC and C. jejuni genotypes may persist in cattle herds for several months. The results can be utilized in developing and targeting pathogen monitoring and risk management on the farm level and contributed to the revision of Finnish legislation in 2017., (Copyright © 2019 Jaakkonen et al.)

The molecular epidemiology of Listeria monocytogenes was investigated in a longitudinal study of three Finnish dairy farms during 2013 to 2016. A total of 186 bulk tank milk (BTM), 224 milk filter sock (MFS), and 1,702 barn environment samples were analyzed, and isolates of L. monocytogenes were genotyped using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. L. monocytogenes occurred throughout the year in all sample types, and the prevalence in MFS increased significantly during the indoor season. L. monocytogenes was more prevalent in MFS (29%) than in BTM (13%) samples. However, the prevalence of L. monocytogenes varied more between farms in samples of MFS (13 to 48%) than in BTM (10 to 16%). For each farm, the L. monocytogenes genotypes detected were classified by persistence (defined as persistent if isolated from ≥3 samples during ≥6 months) and predominance (defined as predominant if >5% prevalence on at least one farm visit). The prevalence of sporadic genotypes was 4 to 5% on all three farms. In contrast, the prevalence of persistent predominant genotypes varied between farms by 4% to 16%. The highest prevalence of persistent predominant genotypes was observed on the farm with the poorest production hygiene. Persistent predominant genotypes were most prevalent on feeding surfaces, water troughs, and floors. Genotypes isolated from the milking system or from cow udders had a greater relative risk of occurring in BTM and MFS than genotypes that only occurred elsewhere in the farm, supporting the hypothesis that L. monocytogene s is transmitted to milk from contamination on the udder surface or in the milking equipment. IMPORTANCE Listeria monocytogenes is a ubiquitous environmental bacterium and the causative agent of a serious foodborne illness, listeriosis. Dairy products are common vehicles of listeriosis, and dairy cattle farms harbor L. monocytogenes genotypes associated with human listeriosis outbreaks. Indeed, dairy cattle farms act as a reservoir of L. monocytogenes , and the organism is frequently detected in bulk tank milk (BTM) and in the feces of clinically healthy cows. The ecology of L. monocytogenes in the farm environment is complex and poorly understood. Isolates of the same L. monocytogenes genotype can occur in the farm for years, but the factors contributing to the persistence of genotypes on dairy farms are unknown. Knowledge of the persistence patterns and contamination routes of L. monocytogenes on dairy farms can improve management of the contamination pressure in the farm environment and aid in the development of focused control strategies to reduce BTM contamination., (Copyright © 2018 American Society for Microbiology.)

A Bayesian statistical temporal-prevalence-concentration model (TPCM) was built to assess the prevalence and concentration of pathogenic campylobacter species in batches of fresh chicken and turkey meat at retail. The data set was collected from Finnish grocery stores in all the seasons of the year. Observations at low concentration levels are often censored due to the limit of determination of the microbiological methods. This model utilized the potential of Bayesian methods to borrow strength from related samples in order to perform under heavy censoring. In this extreme case the majority of the observed batch-specific concentrations was below the limit of determination. The hierarchical structure was included in the model in order to take into account the within-batch and between-batch variability, which may have a significant impact on the sample outcome depending on the sampling plan. Temporal changes in the prevalence of campylobacter were modeled using a Markovian time series. The proposed model is adaptable for other pathogens if the same type of data set is available. The computation of the model was performed using OpenBUGS software., (© 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.)

The decreased costs of genome sequencing have increased the capability to apply whole-genome sequencing to epidemiological surveillance of zoonotic Campylobacter jejuni. However, knowledge of the genetic diversity of this bacteria is vital for inferring relatedness between epidemiologically linked isolates and a necessary prerequisite for correct application of this methodology. To address this issue in C. jejuni we investigated the spatial and temporal signals in the genomes of a major clonal complex and generalist lineage, ST-45 CC, by analysing the population structure and genealogy as well as applying genome-wide association analysis of 340 isolates from across Europe collected over a wide time range. The occurrence and strength of the geographical signal varied between sublineages and followed the clonal frame when present, while no evidence of a temporal signal was found. Certain sublineages of ST-45 formed discrete and genetically isolated clades containing isolates with extremely similar genomes regardless of time and location of sampling. Based on a separate data set, these monomorphic genotypes represent successful C. jejuni clones, possibly spread around the globe by rapid animal (migrating birds), food or human movement. In addition, we observed an incongruence between the genealogy of the strains and multilocus sequence typing (MLST), challenging the existing clonal complex definition and the use of whole-genome gene-by-gene hierarchical nomenclature schemes for C. jejuni .

Campylobacter jejuni is the leading cause of bacterial gastroenteritis and chicken is considered a major reservoir and source of human campylobacteriosis. In this study, we investigated temporally related Finnish human (n=95), chicken (n=83) and swimming water (n=20) C. jejuni isolates collected during the seasonal peak in 2012 using multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and whole-genome MLST (wgMLST). Our objective was to trace domestic human C. jejuni infections to C. jejuni isolates from chicken slaughter batches and swimming water. At MLST level, 79% of the sequence types (STs) of the human isolates overlapped with chicken STs suggesting chicken as an important reservoir. Four STs, the ST-45, ST-230, ST-267 and ST-677, covered 75% of the human and 64% of the chicken isolates. In addition, 50% of the swimming water isolates comprised ST-45, ST-230 and ST-677. Further wgMLST analysis of the isolates within STs, accounting their temporal relationship, revealed that 22 of the human isolates (24%) were traceable back to C. jejuni positive chicken slaughter batches. None of the human isolates were traced back to swimming water, which was rather sporadically sampled. The highly discriminatory wgMLST, together with the patient background information and temporal relationship data with possible sources, offers a new, accurate approach to trace back the origin of domestic campylobacteriosis. Our results suggest that potentially a substantial proportion of campylobacteriosis cases during the seasonal peak most probably are due to other sources than chicken meat consumption. These findings warrant further wgMLST-based studies to reassess the role of other reservoirs in the Campylobacter epidemiology both in Finland and elsewhere., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Consumption and handling of chicken meat are well-known risk factors for acquiring campylobacteriosis. This study aimed to describe the Campylobacter jejuni population in Finnish chickens and to investigate the distribution of C. jejuni genotypes on Finnish chicken farms over a period of several years. We included 89.8% of the total C. jejuni population recovered in Finnish poultry during 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2012 and used multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) to characterize the 380 isolates. The typing data was combined with isolate information on collection-time and farm of origin. The C. jejuni prevalence in chicken slaughter batches was low (mean 3.0%, CI95% [1.8%, 4.2%]), and approximately a quarter of Finnish chicken farms delivered at least one positive chicken batch yearly. In general, the C. jejuni population was diverse as represented by a total of 63 sequence types (ST), but certain predominant MLST lineages were identified. ST-45 clonal complex (CC) accounted for 53% of the isolates while ST-21 CC and ST-677 CC covered 11% and 9% of the isolates, respectively. Less than half of the Campylobacter positive farms (40.3%) delivered C. jejuni-contaminated batches in multiple years, but the genotypes (ST and PFGE types) generally varied from year to year. Therefore, no evidence for a persistent C. jejuni source for the colonization of Finnish chickens emerged. Finnish chicken farms are infrequently contaminated with C. jejuni compared to other European Union (EU) countries, making Finland a valuable model for further epidemiological studies of the C. jejuni in poultry flocks.

Drug metabolism can result in the formation of highly reactive metabolites that are known to play a role in toxicity resulting in a significant proportion of attrition during drug development and clinical use. Thus, the earlier such reactivity was detected, the better. This review summarizes our multi-year project, together with pertinent literature, to examine a battery of in vitro tests capable of detecting the formation of reactive metabolites. Principal prerequisites for such tests were delineated: chemicals known/not known to cause tissue injury and produce reactive metabolites, activation system (mainly human-derived), small- and large-molecular targets (small-molecular trappers, peptides, proteins), analytical techniques (mass spectrometry), and cellular toxicity biomarkers. The current status of in vitro tools to detect reactive intermediates is the following: 1. Small-molecular trapping agents such glutathione or cyanide detect the production of reactive species with high sensitivity by proper MS technique. However, it seems that also putative "negatives" give rise to corresponding adducts. 2. Results from peptide and dG (DNA targeting) trapper studies are generally in line with those of small-molecular trappers, although also important differences exist. These two trapping platforms do not overlap. 3. It is anticipated that the in vitro adduct studies could be fully interpreted only in conjunction with toxicity biomarker (such as the Nrf2 pathway) information from whole cells or tissues. However, while there are tools to characterize the chemical liability and there are correlation between individual/integrated endpoints and toxicity, there are still severe gaps in understanding the mechanisms behind the link between reactive metabolites and adverse effects.

In March 2014, a Yersinia pseudotuberculosis (YP) outbreak was detected by a municipal authority in southern Finland. We conducted epidemiological, microbiological and traceback investigations to identify the source. We defined a case as a person with YP infection notified to the National Infectious Disease Registry between February and April 2014, or their household member, with abdominal pain and fever≥38 °C or erythema nodosum. Healthy household members were used as household-matched controls. We identified 43 cases and 50 controls. The illness was strongly associated with the consumption of raw milk from a single producer. The odds ratio of illness increased with the amount of raw milk consumed. Also previously healthy adults became infected by consuming raw milk. Identical YP strains were identified from cases' stool samples, raw milk sampled from a case's refrigerator and from the milk filter at the producer's farm. The producer fulfilled the legal requirements for raw milk production and voluntarily recalled the raw milk and stopped its production. We advised consumers to heat the raw milk to 72 °C for 15 s. Current legislation for raw milk producers should be reviewed and public awareness of health risks linked to raw milk consumption should be increased.

Background: Waterborne Campylobacter jejuni outbreaks are common in the Nordic countries, and PFGE (pulsed field gel electrophoresis) remains the genotyping method of choice in outbreak investigations. However, PFGE cannot assess the clonal relationship between isolates, leading to difficulties in molecular epidemiological investigations. Here, we explored the applicability of whole genome sequencing to outbreak investigation by re-analysing three C. jejuni strains (one isolated from water and two from patients) from an earlier resolved Finnish waterborne outbreak from the year 2000., Results: One of the patient strains had the same PFGE profile, as well as an identical overall gene synteny and three polymorphisms in comparison with the water strain. However, the other patient isolate, which showed only minor differences in the PFGE pattern relative to the water strain, harboured several polymorphisms as well as rearrangements in the integrated element CJIE2. We reconstructed the genealogy of these strains with ClonalFrame including in the analysis four C. jejuni isolated from chicken in 2012 having the same PFGE profile and sequence type as the outbreak strains. The three outbreak strains exhibited a paraphyletic relationship, implying that the drinking water from 2000 was probably contaminated with at least two different, but related, C. jejuni strains., Conclusions: Our results emphasize the capability of whole genome sequencing to unambiguously resolve the clonal relationship between isolates of C. jejuni in an outbreak situation and evaluate the diversity of the C. jejuni population.

The genetic diversity of Campylobacter jejuni strains isolated from Finnish patients was studied by typing 508 strains by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis: 311 were isolated from domestically acquired infections and 197 from travel-related infections. The strains were systematically selected from a larger collection of previously serotyped strains isolated during two 1-year sampling periods. The four most common SmaI profiles accounted for 45% of the domestic strains but only 3% of the travel-related strains. Of the domestic strains, 69% belonged to SmaI subtypes found during both sampling periods. The predominating SmaI subtypes and strains that were not digested by SmaI were typed by KpnI. Analyzing the temporal diversity of the pulsed-field gel electrophoresis profiles revealed six common persistent SmaI/KpnI subtypes among the domestic strains. Five of them have been identified in cattle, and two in chickens with a temporal association with human infections.

Statistical source attribution approaches of food-related zoonoses can generally be based on reported diagnosed human cases and surveillance results from different food sources or reservoirs of bacteria. The attribution model, or probabilistic classifier, can thus be based on the (sub)typing information enabling comparison between human infections and samples derived from source surveillance. Having time series of both data allows analyzing temporal patterns over time providing a repeated natural experiment. A Bayesian approach combining both sources of information over a long time series is presented in the case of Campylobacter in Finland and Norway. The full model is transparently presented and derived from the Bayes theorem. Previous statistical source attribution approaches are here advanced (1) by explicit modeling of the cases not associated with any of the sources under surveillance over time, (2) by modeling uncertain prevalence in a food source by bacteria type over time, and (3) by implementing formal model fit assessment using posterior predictive discrepancy functions. Large proportion of all campylobacteriosis can be attributed to broiler, but considerable uncertainty remains over time. The source attribution is inherently incomplete if only the sources under surveillance are included in the model. All statistical source attribution approaches should include a model fit assessment for judgment of model performance with respect to relevant quantities of interest. It is especially relevant when the model aims at a synthesis of several incomplete information sources under significant uncertainty of explanatory variables., (© 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.)

To evaluate the effectiveness of bagging of the rectum in mitigating the contamination of carcasses with enteropathogenic Yersinia at the slaughterhouse and to estimate the hidden prevalences of these pathogens in different farm types and capacities, samples from pigs, carcasses, and slaughterhouse environment were collected, and a Bayesian probability model was constructed. In addition, the contamination routes were studied with molecular typing of the isolated strains. According to the model, bagging of the rectum reduced carcass contamination significantly with pathogenic Yersinia enterocolitica, but not with Yersinia pseudotuberculosis, and alone it was insufficient to completely prevent the carcass contamination with enteropathogenic Yersinia. The hidden prevalence of pathogenic Y. enterocolitica was higher at high production capacity than it was in low production capacity, but the 95 % credible intervals overlapped. Slaughterhouse environments can contaminate carcasses with enteropathogenic Yersinia, but the plausible main contamination source is the pig carrying the pathogen.