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Vapaa-ajan asuminen on merkittävä osa suomalaisten vapaa-ajan viettoa ja matkailua. Suomessa on yli puoli miljoonaa vapaa-ajan asuntoa ja on arvioitu, että jopa 2,4 miljoonaa suomalaista viettää aikaa vapaa-ajan asunnoilla vuosittain. Teemme tässä artikkelissa katsauksen vapaa-ajan asumisen tutkimukseen Suomessa. Tämä katsaus perustuu kirjallisuuslähteiden ohella omakohtaiseen kokemukseemme vapaa-ajan asumisen tutkimuksen alalta, jota on kertynyt viimeisten kahdenkymmenen vuoden aikana lukuisista erilaisista tutkimushankkeista, kotimaisista ja kansainvälisistä tapahtumista, tutkijavaihdoista, mediahaastatteluista sekä osallistumisesta alueelliseen ja valtakunnalliseen kehittämistoimintaan ja päätöksentekoa tukevaan tutkimukseen. Lyhyen vapaa-ajan asumisen tutkimuksen historian jälkeen esittelemme viimeisten kahdenkymmenen vuoden aikana tehtyä tutkimusta ja keskeisiä vapaa-ajan asumisen tutkijoita ja tutkimusryhmiä. Tämän jälkeen arvioimme viime vuosien globaalien kriisien vaikutuksia vapaa-ajan asumisen tutkimukseen. Johtopäätösluvussa pohdimme matkailututkimuksen ja Matkailututkimus-lehden merkitystä vapaa-ajan tutkimuksen keskustelukenttänä ja edistäjänä ja nostamme esiin havaintojamme tutkimusaukoista ja -tarpeista.

Abstract The geometric phase for classical electromagnetic light beams, in its original formulation as introduced by Pancharatnam, concerns fields experiencing cyclic, discrete in-phase polarization-state changes. A similar phase was later recognized by Berry to govern the behavior of adiabatic quantum systems, with consequent extensions to nonadiabatic and noncyclic evolutions of the quantum state. However, no optical counterpart for the noncyclic, adiabatic (continuous) evolution has been demonstrated. Here we employ a modified Young’s two-pinhole setup with controlled pinhole polarizations and intensities to generate on interference an arbitrary continuous spatial evolution of the polarization state, an optical analogue to the adiabatic case. The customized arrangement allows separating at any point the accumulated dynamical and geometric phases from the total phase, enabling a detailed study of the noncyclic Pancharatnam–Berry phase in a continuous transformation. Our theoretical and experimental results are in excellent agreement and consistent with the geodesic rule for noncyclic evolutions.

In this editorial, we focus on the importance of knowledge in the dynamic and constantly changing tourism industry. Although more knowledge is available than ever before, its application in the development of the tourism industry has been challenging. Leading with knowledge requires an understanding of how knowledge can influence decision-making, strategic development, and the innovation of new services. The use of knowledge should not be confined to analytics and reports; it is a creative process that demands the courage to try new things and learn from mistakes. The tourism industry still needs to develop a culture that encourages experimentation and innovation, as well as managerial practices in leading with knowledge. Through these approaches, the tourism industry can fully utilise the enormous potential of knowledge and propel itself towards a sustainable and successful future.

In this editorial we describe the advantages of AI use in research, such as help with quick processing of big research data, managing and analysing data, develop modelling methods and future scenarios. AI can support researchers’ work in many ways, but it should be used with caution. One of the most critical aspects in using AI is the importance of interpretation of the results that it offers. There are still questions about personal data and security risks in using AI. Perspectives on the use of AI in research vary significantly. While Italy has banned the use of ChatGPT, the University of Calgary offers courses on the use of ChatGPT in academic publishing and grant writing. AI is here to stay, so we have to learn our ways to understand and use it appropriately.

Abstract Background Clavicle fractures in children have traditionally been treated non-operatively. In adults, a great increase in operative treatment has been reported. We aimed to analyze the respective trend and potential explanatory factors in children. Methods This is a single-institution retrospective study in a subregion in Northern Finland. The ICD-code S42.0 was used to identify the cases in the hospital registry. Altogether, 214 children, aged 15 mm and a shortening of > 15 mm were associated with the increased risk of surgery but did not change during the study period. Age > 9 years increased the risk of surgery; the mean age increased from 5.5 years (2008–10) to 8.5 years (2017–19). There was a 3.6-fold increase in sports-related fractures (95% CI 7.4 to 26.4). The severity of the fractures did not change. Conclusions There has been an increasing trend in the surgical fixation of pediatric middle shaft clavicle fractures since 2008. The available literature does not support the trend.

Vuosittain järjestettävillä Tiedejulkaisemisen päivillä keskustellaan monipuolisesti tiedejulkaisemiseen liittyvistä aiheista. Tänä vuonna lokakuun alussa vietetyillä päivillä keskusteltiin paneelissa muun muassa kotimaisten tiedelehtien vaikuttavuudesta. Matkailututkimus oli yksi mukana olleista kotimaisista tiedelehdistä. Keskustelu toi esiin monipuolisesti syitä sille miksi kotimaisia tiedelehtiä on olemassa, ja mikä niiden vaikutus on.

This paper represents a scoping review of angling tourism. Using the Google Scholar search engine and Scopus search, the paper reviews 98 journal articles on angling tourism in terms of year of publication, geographic locations of case studies, disciplinary foci, scientific fields and research themes. Studies on angling tourism focus on different facets of this tourism activity and comprise three major research themes: Angling tourism management, General angling tourism and Impacts both of and on angling tourism. This review shows that tourism studies and journals on tourism management/geography have, by and large, ignored angling tourism as a tourism activity across the globe, despite its significant contribution to the tourism economy. Future research on angling tourism development requires broadening the geographical scope of studies, understanding anglers as tourists with subsequent research from tourism studies perspectives, acquiring and mining of quality data for sustainable site-specific tourism offerings as well as focusing on the issues of global environmental change for implementing effective management and adaptation mechanisms. Significantly more studies are required to understand this tourism activity fully. The review supports the use of Google Scholar search as a reliable tool for accessing scientific publications.

Abstract Background Cognitively straining conditions such as disruptions, interruptions, and information overload are related to impaired task performance and diminished well-being at work. It is therefore essential that we reduce their harmful consequences to individual employees and organizations. Our intervention study implements practices for managing the cognitive strain typical to office work tasks and working conditions in offices. We will examine the effects of a cognitive ergonomics intervention on working conditions, workflow, well-being, and productivity. Methods/design The study is a stratified cluster randomized trial. The clusters are work units, for example, teams or offices. The four participating organizations entered a total of 36 clusters, and we invited all 1169 knowledge employees of these units to participate. We randomly allocated the clusters into an intervention group (cognitive ergonomics) or an active control group (recovery supporting). We invited an additional 471 participants to join a passive control group only for baseline and follow-up measurements, with no intervention. The study consists of a baseline survey and interviews and observations at the workplace, followed by an intervention. It starts with a workshop defining the specific actions for the intervention implementation stage, during which we send task reminder questionnaires to all employees to support behaviour change at the individual and team levels. The primary outcome measure is perceived frequency of cognitive strain from working conditions; the secondary outcome measures include subjective cognitive load, well-being, workflow/productivity, and cognitive stress symptoms. Process evaluation uses the quantitative and qualitative data obtained during the implementation and evaluation phases. The baseline measurements, intervention phase, and end-of-treatment measurements are now complete, and follow-up will continue until November 2019. Discussion There is a need to expand the research of cognitive strain, which poses a considerable risk to work performance and employee well-being in cognitively demanding tasks. Our study will provide new information about factors that contribute to such strain. Most importantly, the results will show which evidence-based cognitive ergonomic practices support work performance in knowledge work, and the project will provide concrete examples of how to improve at work. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03573674. Registered 29 June 2018.

An early symptom of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is an impaired sense of smell, for which the molecular basis remains elusive. Here, we generated human olfactory neurosphere-derived (ONS) cells from people with AD and mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and performed global RNA sequencing to determine gene expression changes. ONS cells expressed markers of neuroglial differentiation, providing a unique cellular model to explore changes of early AD-associated pathways. Our transcriptomics data from ONS cells revealed differentially expressed genes (DEGs) associated with cognitive processes in AD cells compared to MCI, or matched healthy controls (HC). A-Kinase Anchoring Protein 6 (AKAP6) was the most significantly altered gene in AD compared to both MCI and HC, and has been linked to cognitive function. The greatest change in gene expression of all DEGs occurred between AD and MCI. Gene pathway analysis revealed defects in multiple cellular processes with aging, intellectual deficiency and alternative splicing being the most significantly dysregulated in AD ONS cells. Our results demonstrate that ONS cells can provide a cellular model for AD that recapitulates disease-associated differences. We have revealed potential novel genes, including AKAP6 that may have a role in AD, particularly MCI to AD transition, and should be further examined.

Background: The gut microbiome is a complex system within the human gastrointestinal tract. The bacteria play a significant role in human health, and some can promote inflammation and pathologic processes through chemical interactions or metabolites. Gut microbiome dysbiosis has been linked to some neurological and other diseases. Here we aimed to examine microbiome differences between patients with a progressive neurological disorder, idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH), compared with healthy controls (CO). Methods: We recruited 37 neurologically healthy CO and 10 patients with shunted iNPH. We evaluated these participants' cognition using the CERAD-NB test battery and CDR test, and collected a variety of information, including about dietary habits and health. We also collected fecal samples, which were subjected to 16S amplicon sequencing to analyze differences in gut microbiome composition. Results: We found that the iNPH group exhibited significantly different abundances of 10 bacterial genera compared with the CO group. The Escherichia/Shigella and Anaeromassilibacillus genera were most remarkably increased. Other increased genera were Butyrivibrio , Duncaniella , and an unidentified genus. The decreased genera were Agathobaculum , Paramuribaculum , Catenibacterium , and 2 unidentified genera. Conclusions: Here we report the first identified microbiome differences in iNPH patients compared with healthy controls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Proximal humerus fractures comprise approximately 2% of all pediatric fractures. In general, upper extremity fractures have increased in children. However, recent trends of proximal humerus fractures are not analyzed yet. The aim was to study the incidence and treatment trends of proximal humerus fractures in children. Methods All 300 children, aged

Abstract Background The elbow is the joint that most usually dislocates in children. In contrast to the widely known recent increase in the incidence of upper-extremity fractures and their operative treatment in children, potential trends in elbow dislocation are not clear. In this study we aimed to clarify the recent epidemiology of childhood elbow dislocation, in particular the potential change in incidence and treatment. Methods A population-based study was performed to evaluate the annual incidence and the characteristics of injury, patients and treatment. All children

This study examines German-speaking second home owners on Gran Canaria, Spain as an example of one of the growing groups of non-conventional tourists. International second home ownership has been increasing rapidly over the last decades with Spain and particularly the Canary Islands being a hot spot for residential tourism. Despite the maturity of the destination, there are few studies on second home tourists on the Canary Islands. Moreover, while second home tourism, including its international forms, has been present as a distinct type of tourism, academic attention has not sufficiently compared and counterposed mass and residential tourism. The aim of this paper is to investigate distinctions between second home and mass tourists to define the features of non-conventional travellers in light of the contemporary growth of alternative ways to engage in recreation. This paper argues that second home tourism reflects the emerging tourism trends of “home stay tourism” and “living like a local” that will reshape the nature of mass tourism as well as receiving destinations. In order to understand the features of rapidly growing alternative or non-mass tourists, this paper examines the experiences of German-speaking second home owners on Gran Canaria. The results reveal a number of distinctive features that collectively help to understand contemporary non-conventional tourists.

Olfactory function, orchestrated by the cells of the olfactory mucosa at the rooftop of the nasal cavity, is disturbed early in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Biometals including zinc and calcium are known to be important for sense of smell and to be altered in the brains of AD patients. Little is known about elemental homeostasis in the AD patient olfactory mucosa. Here we aimed to assess whether the disease-related alterations to biometal homeostasis observed in the brain are also reflected in the olfactory mucosa. We applied RNA sequencing to discover gene expression changes related to metals in olfactory mucosal cells of cognitively healthy controls, individuals with mild cognitive impairment and AD patients, and performed analysis of the elemental content to determine metal levels. Results demonstrate that the levels of zinc, calcium and sodium are increased in the AD olfactory mucosa concomitantly with alterations to 17 genes related to metal-ion binding or metal-related function of the protein product. A significant elevation in alpha-2-macroglobulin, a known metal-binding biomarker correlated with brain disease burden, was observed on the gene and protein levels in the olfactory mucosa cells of AD patients. These data demonstrate that the olfactory mucosa cells derived from AD patients recapitulate certain impairments of biometal homeostasis observed in the brains of patients.

Introduction: Humeral shaft fractures have traditionally been treated non-operatively due to their good union and low rate of functional impairment. In the recent years, upper extremity fractures and their operative treatment have increased in children. Nevertheless, the trends of humeral shaft fractures are not clear.Materials and Methods: All children aged

Olfaction is orchestrated by olfactory mucosal cells located in the upper nasal cavity. Olfactory dysfunction manifests early in several neurodegenerative disorders including Alzheimer’s disease, however, disease-related alterations to the olfactory mucosal cells remain poorly described. The aim of this study was to evaluate the olfactory mucosa differences between cognitively healthy individuals and Alzheimer’s disease patients. We report increased amyloid-beta secretion in Alzheimer’s disease olfactory mucosal cells and detail cell-type-specific gene expression patterns, unveiling 240 differentially expressed disease-associated genes compared to the cognitively healthy controls, and five distinct cell populations. Overall, alterations of RNA and protein metabolism, inflammatory processes, and signal transduction were observed in multiple cell populations, suggesting their role in Alzheimer’s disease-related olfactory mucosa pathophysiology. Furthermore, the single-cell RNA-sequencing proposed alterations in gene expression of mitochondrially located genes in AD OM cells, which were verified by functional assays, demonstrating altered mitochondrial respiration and a reduction of ATP production. Our results reveal disease-related changes of olfactory mucosal cells in Alzheimer’s disease and demonstrate the utility of single-cell RNA sequencing data for investigating molecular and cellular mechanisms associated with the disease.

Russian second home purchases in Finland have grown rapidly since 2000, and have been the source of a contested social debate. This study represents the first investigation of Russian second home ownership in Finland. The aim is to investigate how Russian trans-border second home mobility is produced (its elements and trajectories), challenged, and what are its socio-economic and spatial outcomes at the local and regional levels. The phenomenon is approached theoretically applying the concepts of constellations of mobility and mobility regime. While these theoretical approaches have been used to address leisure mobilities that originate in the West, Russian second home ownership in Finland represents a different mobility pattern, from East to West. The findings emphasise the increasing role of the border in the production and practice, as well as in the outcomes of such mobility. This study shows that the perceived outcome of Russian ownership presented through the social debate has been detached from the actual phenomenon. The empirical part of the dissertation – four research papers – uncovers the driving factors in Russian second home mobility, its challenges, and its socio-economic and spatial outcome, which collectively help address the social debate and inform policy makers. Simultaneously, the empirical study re-interprets Western mobility approaches in relation to Russian trans-border mobility and reveals peculiarities of the East-to-West mobility trajectory.

Browning of surface waters, also known as brownification, is a process of decreasing water transparency, particularly in boreal lakes surrounded by intensively managed forests and wetlands. In this paper, we review the ecological consequences and ecosystem‐based management (EBM) of browning through a systematic review approach and adopt an interdisciplinary approach to formulating new governance of this complex phenomenon. To understand the effects of browning on the recreational value of freshwaters, we present primary survey data on public perceptions of recreational fishing tourists on water quality in Finland. We identify a need to develop EBM beyond the EU's Water Framework Directive (WFD) to fully account for the extensive implications of browning. We also highlight the need for a better understanding of the within‐lake microbial processes to estimate the browning‐associated changes in the greenhouse gas balance of lakes. Tourist perceptions of the quality of waterbodies in Finland were largely in agreement with the general proportion of waterbodies classified in a good or excellent ecological status class, but these perceptions may be detached from biological quality assessment criteria. Consequently, we suggest that the EBM of inland waters should improve the utilization of information on not only biogeochemical processes but also users' perspectives on aquatic ecosystems beyond the EU WFD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This short reflection on the keynote speech given by Henk van Houtum at the Annual Meeting of Finnish Geographers enhances discussion on bordering and border construction, both within the European Union (EU) and via the external border of the EU in the northeast, specifically the Finnish-Russian border. And it focuses attention upon the problem of Eurocentric geographies, and a dominant Western perspective of the rest of the world.

YKL-40, a chitinase-like glycoprotein associated with inflammation and tissue remodeling, is produced by joint tissues and recognized as a candidate auto-antigen in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In the present study, we investigated YKL-40 as a potential biomarker of disease activity in patients with early RA at baseline and during intensive treatment aiming for early remission.Ninety-nine patients with early DMARD-naïve RA participated in the NEO-RACo study. For the first four weeks, the patients were treated with the combination of sulphasalazine, methotrexate, hydroxychloroquine and low dose prednisolone (FIN-RACo DMARD combination), and subsequently randomized to receive placebo or infliximab added on the treatment for further 22 weeks. Disease activity was evaluated using the 28-joint disease activity score and plasma YKL-40 concentrations were measured by immunoassay.At the baseline, plasma YKL-40 concentration was 57 ± 37 (mean ± SD) ng/ml. YKL-40 was significantly associated with the disease activity score, interleukin-6 and erythrocyte sedimentation rate both at the baseline and during the 26 weeks' treatment. The csDMARD combination decreased YKL-40 levels already during the first four weeks of treatment, and there was no further reduction when the tumour necrosis factor-α antagonist infliximab was added on the combination treatment.High YKL-40 levels were found to be associated with disease activity in early DMARD-naïve RA and during intensive treat-to-target therapy. The present results suggest YKL-40 as a useful biomarker of disease activity in RA to be used to steer treatment towards remission.

Aim: The study aimed to assess the effects of diabetes-related risk factors, especially severe hypoglycaemia, on the academic skills of children with early-onset type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). Method: The study comprised 63 children with T1DM (31 females, 32 males; mean age 9y 11mo, SD 4mo) and 92 comparison children without diabetes (40 females, 52 males; mean age 9y 9mo, SD 3mo). Children were included if T1DM had been diagnosed before the age of 5 years and if they were aged between 9 and 10 years at the time of study. Children were not included if their native language was not Finnish and if they had a diagnosed neurological disorder that affected their cognitive development. Among the T1DM group, 37 had and 26 had not experienced severe hypoglycaemia and 26 had avoided severe hypoglycaemia. Severe hypoglycaemia, diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), and glycaemic control were used as T1DM-related factors. Task performance in reading, spelling, and mathematics was compared among the three groups, and the effects of the T1DM-related factors were analysed with general linear models. Results: The groups with (p less than 0.001) and without (p = 0.001) severe hypoglycaemia demonstrated a poorer performance than the comparison group in spelling, and the group without severe hypoglycaemia showed a poorer performance than the comparison group in mathematics (p = 0.003). Severe hypoglycaemia, DKA, and recent glycaemic control were not associated with poorer skills, but poorer first-year glycaemic control was associated with poorer spelling (p = 0.013). Interpretation: An early onset of T1DM can increase the risk of learning problems, independently of the history of severe hypoglycaemia or DKA. Poorer glycaemic control after the first year of T1DM is associated with a poorer acquisition of academic skills indicating the effect of the timing of metabolic aberrations on cognitive development.

Beating is a simple physical phenomenon known for long in the context of sound waves but remained surprisingly unexplored for light waves. When two monochromatic optical beams of different frequencies and states of polarization interfere, the polarization state of the superposition field exhibits temporal periodic variation—polarization beating. In this work, we reveal a foundational and elegant phase structure underlying such polarization beating. We show that the phase difference over a single beating period decomposes into the Pancharatnam–Berry geometric phase and a dynamical phase of which the former depends exclusively on the intensities and polarization states of the interfering beams whereas the sum of the phases is determined solely by the beam frequencies. Varying the intensity and polarization characteristics of the beams, the relative contributions of the geometric and dynamical phases can be adjusted. The geometric phase inherent in polarization beating is governed by a compact expression containing only the Stokes parameters of the interfering waves and can alternatively be obtained from the individual beam intensities and the amplitude of the intensity beats. We demonstrate both approaches experimentally by using an interferometer with a fast detector and a specific polarimetric arrangement. Polarization beating has a unique character that the geometric and dynamical phases are entangled, i.e. variation in one unavoidably leads to a change in the other. Our work expands geometric phases into a new domain and offers important novel insight into the role of polarization in interference of electromagnetic waves.

Aim: Basic verbal and academic skills can be adversely affected by early-onset diabetes, although these skills have been studied less than other cognitive functions. This study aimed to explore the mechanism of learning deficits in children with diabetes by assessing basic verbal and academic skills in children with early-onset diabetes and in comparison children. In addition, the incidence of dyslexia (less than or equal to 10th centile in reading speed or reading-spelling accuracy) was studied. Method: The performance of 51 children with early-onset diabetes (25 females, 26 males; mean age 9y 11mo, SD 4mo; range 9-10y) was compared with that of 92 children without diabetes (40 females, 52 males; mean age 9y 10mo, SD 3mo; range 9-10y) in the tasks of phonological processing, short-term memory, rapid automatized naming, reading, spelling, and mathematics. Results: The performance of children with diabetes was poorer than that of the comparison children in phonological processing (p = 0.001), spelling accuracy (p less than 0.001), and mathematics (p = 0.024). They learned to read later (p = 0.013), but reading performance and the incidence of dyslexia in the third grade (aged 9-10y) were similar in the two groups. Interpretation: Children with early-onset diabetes are prone to minor learning difficulties in their early school years as a result of deficits in phonological processing.

Objective: To describe a one-stop, integrated rheumatology service and assess patient satisfaction. Methods: A descriptive report and patient satisfaction survey of a rheumatology clinic model first developed in 1996 to enhance the patient “journey” through rheumatology services. A patient-satisfaction survey over a 3-week period assessed several aspects of care including quality of services, consultations, and patient education. Results: All referrals are screened by a rheumatologist to pre-schedule laboratory/radiology/other tests for the visit. Upon arrival to the clinic, patients check-in at an electronic desk, and then complete the electronic GoTreatIT monitoring system which assesses patient-reported outcomes. The patient is reviewed by a doctor in a 30- to 60-min consultation, and then by a nurse (for diagnosis/treatment education, vaccinations). An ultrasound machine and capillaroscopy are available for use in the clinic. Patients can be scheduled on the same day to see a nutritionist, physiotherapist, or other heath professionals as necessary. An “early-rheumatoid arthritis treatment path” is available to ensure early, intensive treatment. A patient satisfaction survey revealed high rating of the overall service (90.6/100). None of the patients felt that they lacked education on their disease or medication. Only 6% of the respondents gave negative feedback, reasons including feeling overwhelmed with information or not being given a cause for their symptoms. The multi-disciplinary approach was highly valued and only 3% would rather see a doctor and nurse on separate days. Conclusion: The specific clinic model provides an ideal setting for a one-stop service, avoiding unnecessary visits, collecting patient data, and enhancing the patient experience and journey through the system. Where possible, the specific clinic model could be used or adapted to build similar models in other rheumatology departments. The clinic model could also form the basis for services in other specialties dealing with chronic conditions.

Background: Functional defects in eye movements and reduced reading speed in neurodegenerative diseases represent a potential new biomarker to support clinical diagnosis. We investigated whether computer-based eye-tracking (ET) analysis of the King-Devick (KD) test differentiates persons with idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH) from cognitively unimpaired [control (CO)] and persons with Alzheimer's disease (AD).Methods: We recruited 68 participants (37 CO, 10 iNPH, and 21 AD) who underwent neurological examination, the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease neuropsychological test battery (CERAD-NB), and a Clinical Dementia Rating interview. The KD reading test was performed using computer-based ET. We analyzed the total time used for the reading test, number of errors, durations of fixation and saccade, and saccade amplitudes.Results: The iNPH group significantly differed from the CO group in the KD test mean total time (CO 69.3 s, iNPH 87.3 s; P ≤0.009) and eye-tracking recording of the mean saccade amplitude (CO 3.6 degree, iNPH 3.2 degree; P ≤0.001). The AD group significantly differed from the CO group in each tested parameter. No significant differences were detected between the iNPH and AD groups.Conclusion: For the first time, we demonstrated altered reading ability and saccade amplitudes in patients with iNPH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates forecasting accuracy of four different hedonic approaches, when vacant urban land prices are predicted in local markets. The investigated hedonic approaches are: 1) ordinary least squares estimation, 2) robust MM‐estimation, 3) structural time series estimation and 4) robust local regression. Post‐sample predictive testing indicated that more accurate predictions are obtained if the unorthodox methods of this paper are used instead of the conventional least squares estimation. In particular, the predictive unbiassness can significantly be improved when using the unconventional hedonic methods of the study. The paper also studied the structure of urban land prices. The most important attribute variables in explaining land prices were permitted building volume, house price index, northing and easting. The influence of parcel size variable and different indicator variables on land prices were much weaker. Santrauka Nagrinėjama, kokiu tikslumu keturi skirtingi hedonistiniai metodai prognozuoja laisvų žemės plotų kainas vietinėse miestų rinkose. Nagrinėti tokie hedonistiniai metodai: 1) mažiausiųjų kvadratų metodas, 2) daugybinių modelių vertinimas, 3) struktūrinių laiko eilučių vertinimas, 4) lokalinė regresinė analizė. Post-sample prognostinis testas parodė, kad tikslesnės prognozės gaunamos taikant netradicinius šiame darbe nurodytus metodus, o ne įprastą mažiausiųjų kvadratų metodą. Taikant netradicinius hedonistinius tyrimo metodus, gali gerokai padidėti prognozių nešališkumas. Darbe nagrinėta ir žemės kainų mieste struktūra. Aiškinant žemės kainas iš būdingų kintamųjų svarbiausi buvo leidžiamas pastato dydis, būsto kainų indeksas, sklypo padėtis. Sklypo dydžio kintamasis ir įvairių rodiklių kintamieji žemės kainoms turėjo daug mažesnę įtaką. First published online: 18 Oct 2010

This paper analyses the low‐frequency temporal variation of unit land prices in two single localities, the municipalities of Espoo and Nurmijärvi, of the Finnish real estate markets by the use of the wavelet transforms. These transforms are nonparametric orthogonal series estimators, which are capable of providing the necessary time and frequency information of land prices simultaneously in a highly flexible fashion. In the empirical section of this paper both the raw and the quality‐adjusted unit price series are analysed. The estimated cycles and trends are all nonlinear and, in particular, the behavior of cyclical component is highly curvelinear and transient in time. The findings strongly suggest that the sub‐markets in question are not in a steady state, but are continuously evolving in time. It seems that much of the temporal variation present in the untransformed series is, in fact, explained by the quality differences in the attribute variables. The use of quality corrections produced significant improvements in the internal reliability of results. Žemės sklypų kainų tendencijų ir ciklų analizė taikant Wavelet transformaciją Santruka Šiame darbe, naudojant Wavelet transformacija, analizuojamas mažo dažnio laikinas žemes sklypų kainų svyravimas dviejose skirtingose Suomijos nekilnojamojo turto rinkos dalyse: Espoo ir Nurmijärvi savivaldybėse. Šios transformacijos yra beparamtelės stačiakampės sekų vertintojos, kurios padeda vienu metu ir labai lanksčiai pateikti reikiamą informaciją apie laiką bei dažnumą, kai kalbama apie sklypų kainas. Empirinėje šio darbo dalyje analizuojamos tiek neapdorotos, tiek kokybiškai pakoreguotos vieneto kainų sekos. Visi apskaičiuoti ciklai ir tendencijos yra netiesiniai: labai svyruoja ciklinio komponento elgsenos kreivė, o pokyčių dažnis labai didelis. Išvadose teigiama, kad aptariamosios rinkos dalys nėra stabilios, o nuolat kinta. Panašu, kad didžioji laikinų variacijų, esančių netransformuotose sekose, dalis realiai gali būti paaiškinta kokybiniais kintamųjų skirtumais. Panaudojus kokybines korekcijas, gerokai išaugo vidinis rezultatų patikimumas. First Published Online: 18 Oct 2010

This paper analyses spatio‐temporal variation of land prices in two single localities by means of structural time series modelling formalism that combines the flexibility of a time series model with that of the interpretation of a regression analysis. The extension of conventional hedonic models by introducing unobserved components for trend and cycle resulted to significant improvements in their post‐sample predictive accuracy. In predictive testing, for most model formulations the unobserved component approach generated only a marginal average prediction error when compared to the orthodox hedonic models, which, in contrast, yielded to a considerable amount of systematic prediction error. It therefore seems that the structural time‐series modelling paradigm offers a more viable alternative to the hedonic analysis of land prices than the conventional approach based on least squares estimates. The effect of slope component in the trend specification was found to be statistically insignificant, which implies that the elementary local level model would be the most adequate description of the long‐term land price movements. Žemės kainos analizė: struktūrinis laiko eilučių metodas Santrauka Šiame darbe analizuojami erdviniai ir laiko žemes kainu pokyčiai dviejose skirtingose vietovese, taikant struktūrini laiko eilučiu modeli, derinanti ir šio modelio lankstuma, ir regresines analizes interpretavima. Iprastiniu hedoniniu modeliu prapletimas nestebimais trendo ir ciklo komponentais reikšmingai pagerino prognozavimo tiksluma poatrankinio tyrimo metu. Nestebimu komponentu naudojimas daugelyje modeliu, atliekant prognostinius bandymus, dave tik nedidele vidutine prognozavimo paklaida, o tradiciniai hedoniniai modeliai pateikdavo daug sisteminiu prognozavimo paklaidu. Panašu, kad struktūriniu laiko eilučiu modelio paradigma yra pranašesne už hedonine žemes kainu metodika, pagrista iprastine mažiausiuju kvadratu analize. Nustatyta, kad nuolydžio komponento efektas trendo specifikacijoje yra statistiškai nereikšmingas, o tai reiškia, kad elementaraus lokalinio lygmens modelis adekvačiausiai aprašytu ilgalaikius žemes kainos pokyčius. First Published online: 18 Oct 2010