37 results on '"Hansen, Gerrit"'
Search Results
2. A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs).
- Author
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Meinshausen, Malte, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Beyer, Kathleen, Bodeker, Greg, Boucher, Olivier, Canadell, Josep G., Daniel, John S., Diongue-Niang, Aïda, Driouech, Fatima, Fischer, Erich, Forster, Piers, Grose, Michael, Hansen, Gerrit, Hausfather, Zeke, Ilyina, Tatiana, Kikstra, Jarmo S., Kimutai, Joyce, King, Andrew D., Lee, June-Yi, and Lennard, Chris
- Subjects
PARIS Agreement (2016) ,CONTRACTS ,GOVERNMENT policy on climate change ,PHYSIOLOGICAL adaptation ,EARTH (Planet) ,GROUP work in research - Abstract
In every Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group reports and special reports, as well as their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the Working Groups and scientific research domains based on a small set of "framing pathways" such as the so-called representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This perspective, initiated by discussions at the IPCC Bangkok workshop in April 2023 on the "Use of Scenarios in AR6 and Subsequent Assessments", is intended to serve as one of the community contributions to highlight the needs for the next generation of framing pathways that is being advanced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) umbrella, which will influence or even predicate the IPCC AR7 consideration of framing pathways. Here we suggest several policy research objectives that such a set of framing pathways should ideally fulfil, including mitigation needs for meeting the Paris Agreement objectives, the risks associated with carbon removal strategies, the consequences of delay in enacting that mitigation, guidance for adaptation needs, loss and damage, and for achieving mitigation in the wider context of societal development goals. Based on this context, we suggest that the next generation of climate scenarios for Earth system models should evolve towards representative emission pathways (REPs) and suggest key categories for such pathways. These framing pathways should address the most critical mitigation policy and adaptation plans that need to be implemented over the next 10 years. In our view, the most important categories are those relevant in the context of the Paris Agreement long-term goal, specifically an immediate action (low overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway and a delayed action (high overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway. Two other key categories are a pathway category approximately in line with current (as expressed by 2023) near- and long-term policy objectives, as well as a higher-emission category that is approximately in line with "current policies" (as expressed by 2023). We also argue for the scientific and policy relevance in exploring two "worlds that could have been". One of these categories has high-emission trajectories well above what is implied by current policies and the other has very-low-emission trajectories which assume that global mitigation action in line with limiting warming to 1.5 °C without overshoot had begun in 2015. Finally, we note that the timely provision of new scientific information on pathways is critical to inform the development and implementation of climate policy. Under the Paris Agreement, for the second global stocktake, which will occur in 2028, and to inform subsequent development of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) up to 2040, scientific inputs are required by 2027. These needs should be carefully considered in the development timeline of community modelling activities, including those under CMIP7. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Machine-learning-based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies
- Author
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Callaghan, Max, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Nath, Shruti, Lejeune, Quentin, Knutson, Thomas R., Reichstein, Markus, Hansen, Gerrit, Theokritoff, Emily, Andrijevic, Marina, Brecha, Robert J., Hegarty, Michael, Jones, Chelsea, Lee, Kaylin, Lucas, Agathe, van Maanen, Nicole, Menke, Inga, Pfleiderer, Peter, Yesil, Burcu, and Minx, Jan C.
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Rapid systematic assessment of the detection and attribution of regional anthropogenic climate change
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Stone, Dáithí A and Hansen, Gerrit
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Climate Action ,Atmospheric Sciences ,Oceanography ,Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience ,Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences - Abstract
Despite being a well-established research field, the detection and attribution of observed climate change to anthropogenic forcing is not yet provided as a climate service. One reason for this is the lack of a methodology for performing tailored detection and attribution assessments on a rapid time scale. Here we develop such an approach, based on the translation of quantitative analysis into the “confidence” language employed in recent Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. While its systematic nature necessarily ignores some nuances examined in detailed expert assessments, the approach nevertheless goes beyond most detection and attribution studies in considering contributors to building confidence such as errors in observational data products arising from sparse monitoring networks. When compared against recent expert assessments, the results of this approach closely match those of the existing assessments. Where there are small discrepancies, these variously reflect ambiguities in the details of what is being assessed, reveal nuances or limitations of the expert assessments, or indicate limitations of the accuracy of the sort of systematic approach employed here. Deployment of the method on 116 regional assessments of recent temperature and precipitation changes indicates that existing rules of thumb concerning the detectability of climate change ignore the full range of sources of uncertainty, most particularly the importance of adequate observational monitoring.
- Published
- 2016
5. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change
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Hansen, Gerrit and Stone, Dáithí
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Climate Action ,Atmospheric Sciences ,Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience ,Environmental Science and Management - Abstract
Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is still weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.
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- 2016
6. Linking local impacts to changes in climate: a guide to attribution
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Hansen, Gerrit, Stone, Dáithí, Auffhammer, Maximilian, Huggel, Christian, and Cramer, Wolfgang
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Climate Action ,Observed impacts of climate change ,Impact detection ,Attribution ,Human and managed systems ,Multiple drivers ,Ecology - Abstract
Assessing past impacts of observed climate change on natural, human and managed systems requires detailed knowledge about the effects of both climatic and other drivers of change, and their respective interaction. Resulting requirements with regard to system understanding and long-term observational data can be prohibitive for quantitative detection and attribution methods, especially in the case of human systems and in regions with poor monitoring records. To enable a structured examination of past impacts in such cases, we follow the logic of quantitative attribution assessments, however, allowing for qualitative methods and different types of evidence. We demonstrate how multiple lines of evidence can be integrated in support of attribution exercises for human and managed systems. Results show that careful analysis can allow for attribution statements without explicit end-to-end modeling of the whole climate-impact system. However, care must be taken not to overstate or generalize the results and to avoid bias when the analysis is motivated by and limited to observations considered consistent with climate change impacts.
- Published
- 2016
7. A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)
- Author
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Meinshausen, Malte, primary, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, additional, Beyer, Kathleen, additional, Bodeker, Greg, additional, Boucher, Olivier, additional, Canadell, Josep G., additional, Daniel, John S., additional, Diongue-Niang, Aïda, additional, Driouech, Fatimah, additional, Fischer, Erich, additional, Forster, Piers, additional, Grose, Michael, additional, Hansen, Gerrit, additional, Hausfather, Zeke, additional, Ilyina, Tatiana, additional, Kikstra, Jarmo S., additional, Kimutai, Joyce, additional, King, Andrew, additional, Lee, June-Yi, additional, Lennard, Chris, additional, Lissner, Tabea, additional, Nauels, Alexander, additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Pirani, Anna, additional, Plattner, Gian-Kasper, additional, Pörtner, Hans, additional, Rogelj, Joeri, additional, Rojas, Maisa, additional, Roy, Joyashree, additional, Samset, Bjørn H., additional, Sanderson, Benjamin M., additional, Séférian, Roland, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia, additional, Smith, Christopher J., additional, Szopa, Sophie, additional, Thomas, Adelle, additional, Urge-Vorsatz, Diana, additional, Velders, Guus J. M., additional, Yokohata, Tokuta, additional, Ziehn, Tilo, additional, and Nicholls, Zebedee, additional
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- 2023
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8. On the Attribution of a Single Event to Climate Change
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Hansen, Gerrit, Auffhammer, Maximilian, and Solow, Andrew R
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Climate Action ,Climate change ,Statistics ,Atmospheric Sciences ,Oceanography ,Geomatic Engineering ,Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences - Abstract
There is growing interest in assessing the role of climate change in observed extreme weather events. Recent work in this area has focused on estimating a measure called attributable risk. A statistical formulation of this problem is described and used to construct a confidence interval for attributable risk. The resulting confidence is shown to be surprisinglywide even in the case where the event of interest is unprecedented in the historical record.
- Published
- 2014
9. IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
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Calvin, Katherine, additional, Dasgupta, Dipak, additional, Krinner, Gerhard, additional, Mukherji, Aditi, additional, Thorne, Peter W., additional, Trisos, Christopher, additional, Romero, José, additional, Aldunce, Paulina, additional, Barret, Ko, additional, Blanco, Gabriel, additional, Cheung, William W.L., additional, Connors, Sarah L., additional, Denton, Fatima, additional, Diongue-Niang, Aïda, additional, Dodman, David, additional, Garschagen, Matthias, additional, Geden, Oliver, additional, Hayward, Bronwyn, additional, Jones, Christopher, additional, Jotzo, Frank, additional, Krug, Thelma, additional, Lasco, Rodel, additional, Lee, Yune-Yi, additional, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, additional, Meinshausen, Malte, additional, Mintenbeck, Katja, additional, Mokssit, Abdalah, additional, Otto, Friederike E.L., additional, Pathak, Minal, additional, Pirani, Anna, additional, Poloczanska, Elvira, additional, Pörtner, Hans-Otto, additional, Revi, Aromar, additional, Roberts, Debra C., additional, Roy, Joyashree, additional, Ruane, Alex C., additional, Skea, Jim, additional, Shukla, Priyadarshi R., additional, Slade, Raphael, additional, Slangen, Aimée, additional, Sokona, Youba, additional, Sörensson, Anna A., additional, Tignor, Melinda, additional, van Vuuren, Detlef, additional, Wei, Yi-Ming, additional, Winkler, Harald, additional, Zhai, Panmao, additional, Zommers, Zinta, additional, Hourcade, Jean-Charles, additional, Johnson, Francis X., additional, Pachauri, Shonali, additional, Simpson, Nicholas P., additional, Singh, Chandni, additional, Thomas, Adelle, additional, Totin, Edmond, additional, Alegría, Andrés, additional, Armour, Kyle, additional, Bednar-Friedl, Birgit, additional, Blok, Kornelis, additional, Cissé, Guéladio, additional, Dentener, Frank, additional, Eriksen, Siri, additional, Fischer, Erich, additional, Garner, Gregory, additional, Guivarch, Céline, additional, Haasnoot, Marjolijn, additional, Hansen, Gerrit, additional, Hauser, Mathias, additional, Hawkins, Ed, additional, Hermans, Tim, additional, Kopp, Robert, additional, Leprince-Ringuet, Noëmie, additional, Lewis, Jared, additional, Ley, Debora, additional, Ludden, Chloé, additional, Niamir, Leila, additional, Nicholls, Zebedee, additional, Some, Shreya, additional, Szopa, Sophie, additional, Trewin, Blair, additional, van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar, additional, Winter, Gundula, additional, Witting, Maximilian, additional, Birt, Arlene, additional, and Ha, Meeyoung, additional
- Published
- 2023
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10. The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems
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Stone, Dáithí, Auffhammer, Maximilian, Carey, Mark, Hansen, Gerrit, Huggel, Christian, Cramer, Wolfgang, Lobell, David, Molau, Ulf, Solow, Andrew, Tibig, Lourdes, and Yohe, Gary
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Climate Action ,Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences - Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change has triggered impacts on natural and human systems world-wide, yet the formal scientific method of detection and attribution has been only insufficiently described. Detection and attribution of impacts of climate change is a fundamentally cross-disciplinary issue, involving concepts, terms, and standards spanning the varied requirements of the various disciplines. Key problems for current assessments include the limited availability of long-term observations, the limited knowledge on processes and mechanisms involved in changing environmental systems, and the widely different concepts applied in the scientific literature. In order to facilitate current and future assessments, this paper describes the current conceptual framework of the field and outlines a number of conceptual challenges. Based on this, it proposes workable cross-disciplinary definitions, concepts, and standards. The paper is specifically intended to serve as a baseline for continued development of a consistent cross-disciplinary framework that will facilitate integrated assessment of the detection and attribution of climate change impacts. © 2013 The Author(s).
- Published
- 2013
11. Die klimaresiliente Gesellschaft – Transformation und Systemänderungen
- Author
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Hirschfeld, Jesko, Hansen, Gerrit, Messner, Dirk, Brasseur, Guy P., editor, Jacob, Daniela, editor, and Schuck-Zöller, Susanne, editor
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- 2017
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12. Loss and damage attribution
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Huggel, Christian, Stone, Dáithí, Auffhammer, Maximilian, and Hansen, Gerrit
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Climate Action ,Atmospheric Sciences ,Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience ,Environmental Science and Management - Published
- 2013
13. A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs).
- Author
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Meinshausen, Malte, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Beyer, Kathleen, Bodeker, Greg, Boucher, Olivier, Canadell, Josep G., Daniel, John S., Diongue-Niang, Aïda, Driouech, Fatimah, Fischer, Erich, Forster, Piers, Grose, Michael, Hansen, Gerrit, Hausfather, Zeke, Ilyina, Tatiana, Kikstra, Jarmo S., Kimutai, Joyce, King, Andrew, June-Yi Lee, and Lennard, Chis
- Subjects
PARIS Agreement (2016) ,CONTRACTS ,GOVERNMENT policy on climate change ,PHYSIOLOGICAL adaptation ,EARTH (Planet) ,GROUP work in research - Abstract
In every IPCC Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group and Special Reports and their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the Working Groups and scientific research domains based on a small set of 'framing pathways', such as the so-called RCP pathways from the Fifth IPCC Assessment report (AR5) and the SSP-RCP scenarios in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This perspective, initiated by discussions at the IPCC Bangkok workshop in April 2023 on the "Use of Scenarios in AR6 and Subsequent Assessments", is intended to serve as one of the community contributions to highlight needs for the next generation of framing pathways that is being advanced under the CMIP umbrella for use in the IPCC AR7. Here we suggest a number of policy research objectives that such a set of framing pathways should ideally fulfil, including mitigation needs for meeting the Paris Agreement objectives, the risks associated with carbon removal strategies, the consequences of delay in enacting that mitigation, guidance for adaptation needs, loss and damage, and for achieving mitigation in the wider context of Societal Development goals. Based on this context we suggest that the next generation of climate scenarios for Earth System Models should evolve towards 'Representative Emission Pathways' (REPs) and suggest key categories for such pathways. These 'framing pathways' should address the most critical mitigation policy and adaptation needs over the next 5-10 years. In our view the most important categories are those relevant in the context of the Paris Agreement long-term goal, specifically an immediate action (low overshoot) 1.5°C pathway, and a delayed action (high overshoot) 1.5°C pathway. Two other key categories are a pathway category approximately in line with current (as expressed by 2023) near- and long-term policy objectives, and a higher emissions category that is approximately in line with "current policies" (as expressed by 2023). We also argue for the scientific and policy relevance in exploring two 'worlds that could have been'. One of these categories has high emission trajectories well above what is implied by current policies, and the other has very low emission trajectories that assume that global mitigation action in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C without overshoot had begun in 2015. Finally, we note that timely provision of new scientific information on pathways is critical to inform the development and implementation of climate policy. For the second Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement in 2028, and to inform subsequent development of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2040, scientific inputs are required well before 2028. These needs should be carefully considered in the development timeline of community modelling activities including those under CMIP7. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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- View/download PDF
14. Wissenspolitik im Kontext der internationalen Klimaverhandlungen: Der IPCC-Synthesebericht wird die COP28 und den Global Stocktake prägen
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Hansen, Gerrit and Geden, Oliver
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SPM ,IPCC ,Nationally Determined Contributions ,Summary for Policymakers ,burning embers ,Globale Bestandsaufnahme ,Weltklimarat ,Klimawandelfolgen ,Synthesebericht ,overshoot ,UNFCCC ,Global Stocktake ,ddc:320 ,Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ,Anpassung ,NDCs ,UN-Klimarahmenkonvention ,Netto-Null-Emissionen - Abstract
Mit der Veröffentlichung seines Syntheseberichts im März 2023 hat der Weltklimarat IPCC sein Arbeitsprogramm im sechsten Berichtszyklus abgeschlossen. Die IPCC-Berichte, und insbesondere deren politische Zusammenfassungen, liefern eine wissenschaftliche Basis für die Verhandlungen im Rahmen der UN-Klimarahmenkonvention (UNFCCC). Sie sind ein zentraler Orientierungspunkt der globalen Klimadebatte. Der jüngste Synthesebericht (SYR) gilt als eine der wichtigsten Informationsquellen für die im Pariser Abkommen vorgesehene erste Globale Bestandsaufnahme, die auf der UNFCCC-Vertragsstaatenkonferenz in Dubai (COP 28) im Dezember 2023 abgeschlossen werden soll. Die wissenspolitischen Kontroversen, die bei der Verabschiedung der Zusammenfassung sichtbar wurden, spiegeln Interessengegensätze wider, die die anstehende Runde neuer Emissionsminderungs- und Finanzierungszusagen prägen werden.
- Published
- 2023
15. Knowledge politics in the context of international climate negotiations
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Hansen, Gerrit and Geden, Oliver
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international climate negotiations ,COP28 ,carbon capture and storage (CCS) ,ddc:320 ,IPCC Synthesis Report ,Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ,Paris Agreement ,Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ,global warming ,United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - Abstract
With the publication of its Synthesis Report in March 2023, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has completed its work programme for the sixth assessment cycle. The IPCC reports, and in particular the respective Summary for Policy Makers (SPM), provide a scientific basis for negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are a key reference in the global climate debate. The most recent Synthesis Report (SYR) is considered one of the most important sources of information for the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, which is to be concluded at the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP28) in Dubai in December 2023. The knowledge politics surfacing in controversies that were visible during the report's adoption reflect the conflicting interests that will shape the upcoming round of new emission reduction and financing pledges.
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- 2023
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16. Destruktive Ambiguität bremst Fortschritte im UN-Klimaprozess
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Hansen, Gerrit
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- 2023
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17. Chapter scientists in the IPCC AR5 — experience and lessons learned
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Schulte-Uebbing, Lena, Hansen, Gerrit, Hernández, Ariel Macaspac, and Winter, Marten
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- 2015
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18. The evolution of the evidence base for observed impacts of climate change
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Hansen, Gerrit
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- 2015
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19. Sustainable Development as a Cornerstone of a Future Energy System
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Hansen, Gerrit, Jakob, Michael, Kadner, Susanne, Edenhofer, Ottmar, editor, Wallacher, Johannes, editor, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, editor, Reder, Michael, editor, Knopf, Brigitte, editor, and Müller, Johannes, editor
- Published
- 2012
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20. Machine learning-based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies
- Author
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Callaghan, Max, primary, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, additional, Nath, Shruti, additional, Lejeune, Quentin, additional, Knutson, Thomas R., additional, Reichstein, Markus, additional, Hansen, Gerrit, additional, Theokritoff, Emily, additional, Andrijevic, Marina, additional, Brecha, Robert J., additional, Hegarty, Michael, additional, Jones, Chelsea, additional, Lee, Kaylin, additional, Lucas, Agathe, additional, Maanen, Nicole van, additional, Menke, Inga, additional, Pfleiderer, Peter, additional, Yesil, Burcu, additional, and Minx, Jan C., additional
- Published
- 2022
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21. Die klimaresiliente Gesellschaft – Transformation und Systemänderungen
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Hirschfeld, Jesko, primary, Hansen, Gerrit, additional, and Messner, Dirk, additional
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- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
22. Potential and limitations of the attribution of climate change impacts for informing loss and damage discussions and policies
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Huggel, Christian, Stone, Dáithí, Eicken, Hajo, and Hansen, Gerrit
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- 2015
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23. Machine learning-based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies
- Author
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Callaghan, Max, primary, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, additional, Nath, Shruti, additional, Lejeune, Quentin, additional, Knutson, Thomas R., additional, Reichstein, Markus, additional, Hansen, Gerrit, additional, Theokritoff, Emily, additional, Andrijevic, Marina, additional, Brecha, Robert J., additional, Hegarty, Michael, additional, Jones, Chelsea, additional, Lee, Kaylin, additional, Lucas, Agathe, additional, Maanen, Nicole van, additional, Menke, Inga, additional, Pfleiderer, Peter, additional, Yesil, Burcu, additional, and Minx, Jan C., additional
- Published
- 2021
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24. Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts
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Cramer, Wolfgang, Yohe, Gary W, Auffhammer, Maximilian, Huggel, Christian, Molau, Ulf, Faus da Silva Dias, Maria Assuncao, Solow, Andrew, Stone, Daithi A, Tibig, Lourdes, Bouwer, Laurens, Carey, Mark, Cogley, Graham, Coumou, Dim, Estrada, Yuka Otsuki, Faust, Eberhard, Hansen, Gerrit, Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove, House, Joanna, Hsiang, Solomon, Hughes, Lesley, Kovats, Sari, Leadley, Paul, Lobell, David, Parmesan, Camille, Poloczanska, Elvira, Poertner, Hans Otto, and Reisinger, Andy
- Abstract
Introduction This chapter synthesizes the scientific literature on the detection and attribution of observed changes in natural and human systems in response to observed recent climate change. For policy makers and the public, detection and attribution of observed impacts will be a key element to determine the necessity and degree of mitigation and adaptation efforts. For most natural and essentially all human systems, climate is only one of many drivers that cause change-other factors such as technological innovation, social and demographic changes, and environmental degradation frequently play an important role as well. Careful accounting of the importance of these and other confounding factors is therefore an important part of the analysis. At any given location, observed recent climate change has happened as a result of a combination of natural, longer term fluctuations and anthropogenic alteration of forcings. To inform about the sensitivity of natural and human systems to ongoing climate change, the chapter assesses the degree to which detected changes in such systems can be attributed to all aspects of recent climate change. For the development of adaptation policies, it is less important whether the observed changes have been caused by anthropogenic climate change or by natural climate fluctuations. Where possible, the relative importance of anthropogenic drivers of climate change is assessed as well. 18.1.1. Scope and Goals of the Chapter Previous assessments, notably in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4; Rosenzweig et al., 2007), indicated that numerous physical and biological systems are affected by recent climate change. Owing to a limited number of published studies, human systems received comparatively little attention in these assessments, with the exception of the food system, which is a coupled human-natural system. This knowledge base is growing rapidly, for all types of impacted systems, but the disequilibrium remains (see also Section 1.1.1, Figure 1-1). The great majority of published studies attribute local to regional changes in affected systems to local to regional climate change.
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- 2014
25. Renewable Energy in the Context of Sustainable Development
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Sathaye, Jayant, primary, Lucon, Oswaldo, additional, Rahman, Atiq, additional, Christensen, John, additional, Denton, Fatima, additional, Fujino, Junichi, additional, Heath, Garvin, additional, Mirza, Monirul, additional, Rudnick, Hugh, additional, Schlaepfer, August, additional, Shmakin, Andrey, additional, Angerer, Gerhard, additional, Bauer, Christian, additional, Bazilian, Morgan, additional, Brecha, Robert, additional, Burgherr, Peter, additional, Clarke, Leon, additional, Creutzig, Felix, additional, Edmonds, James, additional, Hagelüken, Christian, additional, Hansen, Gerrit, additional, Hultman, Nathan, additional, Jakob, Michael, additional, Kadner, Susanne, additional, Lenzen, Manfred, additional, Macknick, Jordan, additional, Masanet, Eric, additional, Nagai, Yu, additional, Olhoff, Anne, additional, Olsen, Karen, additional, Pahle, Michael, additional, Rabl, Ari, additional, Richels, Richard, additional, Roy, Joyashree, additional, Schei, Tormod, additional, von Stechow, Christoph, additional, Steckel, Jan, additional, Warner, Ethan, additional, Wilbanks, Tom, additional, Zhang, Yimin, additional, Demkine, Volodymyr, additional, Elgizouli, Ismail, additional, and Logan, Jeffrey, additional
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- 2011
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26. From Targets to Action: Rolling up our Sleeves after Paris
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Knopf, Brigitte, primary, Fuss, Sabine, additional, Hansen, Gerrit, additional, Creutzig, Felix, additional, Minx, Jan, additional, and Edenhofer, Ottmar, additional
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- 2017
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27. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change
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Hansen, Gerrit, primary and Stone, Dáithí, additional
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- 2015
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28. Rapid systematic assessment of the detection and attribution of regional anthropogenic climate change
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Stone, Dáithí A., primary and Hansen, Gerrit, additional
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- 2015
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29. Global distribution of observed climate change impacts
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Hansen, Gerrit, primary and Cramer, Wolfgang, additional
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- 2015
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30. Linking local impacts to changes in climate: a guide to attribution
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Hansen, Gerrit, primary, Stone, Dáithí, additional, Auffhammer, Maximilian, additional, Huggel, Christian, additional, and Cramer, Wolfgang, additional
- Published
- 2015
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31. Heutiges Handeln entscheidet Zukunft im und am Meer.
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HANSEN, GERRIT
- Published
- 2019
32. Rapid systematic assessment of the detection and attribution of regional anthropogenic climate change
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Hansen, Gerrit [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)]
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- 2015
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33. Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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Edenhofer, Ottmar, editor, Pichs-Madruga, Ramón, editor, Sokona, Youba, editor, Seyboth, Kristin, editor, Kadner, Susanne, editor, Zwickel, Timm, editor, Eickemeier, Patrick, editor, Hansen, Gerrit, editor, Schlömer, Steffen, editor, von Stechow, Christoph, editor, and Matschoss, Patrick, editor
- Published
- 2011
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34. Linking local impacts to changes in climate: a guide to attribution
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Maximilian Auffhammer, Gerrit Hansen, Christian Huggel, Wolfgang Cramer, Dáithí Stone, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Climate Systems Analysis Group [Cape Town] (CSAG), University of Cape Town, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [Berkeley] (LBNL), Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich (UZH), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Zurich, and Hansen, Gerrit
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Human systems engineering ,Computer science ,[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes ,Climate change ,2306 Global and Planetary Change ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,Natural (archaeology) ,Impact Detection ,Human and Managed Systems ,Attribution ,Multiple drivers ,MD Multidisciplinary ,910 Geography & travel ,Human and managed systems ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Global and Planetary Change ,Ecology ,business.industry ,Environmental resource management ,Impact detection ,Climate Action ,Observed Impacts of Climate Change ,10122 Institute of Geography ,Observed impacts of climate change ,13. Climate action ,Nature Conservation ,Observational study ,[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology ,business ,Qualitative research - Abstract
© 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Assessing past impacts of observed climate change on natural, human and managed systems requires detailed knowledge about the effects of both climatic and other drivers of change, and their respective interaction. Resulting requirements with regard to system understanding and long-term observational data can be prohibitive for quantitative detection and attribution methods, especially in the case of human systems and in regions with poor monitoring records. To enable a structured examination of past impacts in such cases, we follow the logic of quantitative attribution assessments, however, allowing for qualitative methods and different types of evidence. We demonstrate how multiple lines of evidence can be integrated in support of attribution exercises for human and managed systems. Results show that careful analysis can allow for attribution statements without explicit end-to-end modeling of the whole climate-impact system. However, care must be taken not to overstate or generalize the results and to avoid bias when the analysis is motivated by and limited to observations considered consistent with climate change impacts.
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- 2016
35. Mitigation Potential and Costs
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Gunnar Luderer, Erin Baker, Ilkka Savolainen, Leon Clarke, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Makoto Akai, Roberto Schaeffer, Raymond Wright, Akintayo Adedoyin, Sven Teske, Thomas Bruckner, Manfred Fischedick, Keywan Riahi, Volker Krey, Edenhofer, Ottomar, Madruga, Ramón Pichs, Sokona, Youba, Seyboth, Kirstin, Matschoss, Patrick, Kadner, Susanne, Zwickel, Timm, Eickemeier, Patrick, Hansen, Gerrit, Schlömer, Steffen, and von Stechow, Christoph
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Cost–benefit analysis ,Environmental economics ,Nameplate capacity ,SDG 13 - Climate Action ,Economics ,SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy ,Cost curve ,Social discount rate ,Baseline (configuration management) ,Cost of electricity by source ,Externality ,Average cost - Abstract
Renewable energy (RE) has the potential to play an important and increasing role in achieving ambitious climate mitigation targets. Many RE technologies are increasingly becoming market competitive, although some innovative RE technologies are not yet mature, economic alternatives to non-RE technologies. However, assessing the future role of RE requires not only consideration of the cost and performance of RE technologies, but also an integrative perspective that takes into account the interactions between various forces and the overall systems behaviours.An increasing number of integrated scenario analyses are available in the published literature. They are able to provide relevant insights into the potential contribution of RE to future energy supplies and climate change mitigation. A review of 164 scenarios from 16 different large-scale integrated models was conducted through an open call. Although a collection of scenarios from the literature does not represent a truly random sample suitable for rigorous statistical analysis, a scenario overview can provide some critical and strategic insights about the role of RE in climate mitigation, in spite of the uncertainties involved.Although it is not possible to precisely link long-term climate goals and global RE deployment levels, RE deployment significantly increases in the scenarios with ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration stabilization levels. Ambitious GHG concentration stabilization levels lead on average to higher RE deployment compared to the baseline. However, for any given long-term GHG concentration goal, the scenarios exhibit a wide range of RE deployment levels.
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- 2011
36. Bioenergy
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Maxwell Mapako, Tomoaki Minowa, David Dawe, Martin Kumar Patel, Ranyee Chiang, Benoit Gabrielle, Göran Berndes, Martin Junginger, José Roberto Moreira, Alison Goss Eng, Garvin Heath, Hongmin Dong, Omar Masera Cerutti, David Paré, Richard Bain, André Faaij, Joyce Yang, Terry McIntyre, Suzana Kahn Ribeiro, Helena L. Chum, Kim Pingoud, Wolfgang Lucht, Parveen Dhamija, Ethan Warner, Edenhofer, Ottomar, Madruga, Ramón Pichs, Sokona, Youba, Seyboth, Kristin, Kadner, Susanne, Zwickel, Timm, Eickemeier, Patrick, Hansen, Gerrit, Schlömer, Steffen, von Stechow, Christoph, and Matschoss, Patrick
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010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Political economy of climate change ,010501 environmental sciences ,7. Clean energy ,01 natural sciences ,12. Responsible consumption ,Bioenergy ,11. Sustainability ,SDG 13 - Climate Action ,Environmental policy ,SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy ,Environmental planning ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,SDG 15 - Life on Land ,2. Zero hunger ,business.industry ,Environmental impact of the energy industry ,15. Life on land ,Renewable energy ,Climate change mitigation ,13. Climate action ,Environmental science ,business - Abstract
Bioenergy has a significant greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential, provided that the resources are developed sustainably and that efficient bioenergy systems are used. Certain current systems and key future options including perennial cropping systems, use of biomass residues and wastes and advanced conversion systems are able to deliver 80 to 90% emission reductions compared to the fossil energy baseline. However, land use conversion and forest management that lead to a loss of carbon stocks (direct) in addition to indirect land use change (d+iLUC) effects can lessen, and in some cases more than neutralize, the net positive GHG mitigation impacts. Impacts of climate change through temperature increases, rainfall pattern changes and increased frequency of extreme events will influence and interact with biomass resource potential. This interaction is still poorly understood, but it is likely to exhibit strong regional differences. Climate change impacts on biomass feedstock production exist but if global temperature rise is limited to less than 2°C compared with the pre-industrial record, it may pose few constraints. Combining adaptation measures with biomass resource production can offer more sustainable opportunities for bioenergy and perennial cropping systems.Biomass is a primary source of food, fodder and fibre and as a renewable energy (RE) source provided about 10.2% (50.3 EJ) of global total primary energy supply (TPES) in 2008. Traditional use of wood, straws, charcoal, dung and other manures for cooking, space heating and lighting by generally poorer populations in developing countries accounts for about 30.7 EJ, and another 20 to 40% occurs in unaccounted informal sectors including charcoal production and distribution.
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- 2011
37. Integration of Renewable Energy into Present and Future Energy Systems
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Ralph Sims, Pedro Mercado, Wolfram Krewitt, Gouri Bhuyan, Damian Flynn, Hannele Holttinen, Gilberto Jannuzzi, Smail Khennas, Yongqian Liu, Lars J. Nilsson, Joan Ogden, Kazuhiko Ogimoto, Mark O'Malley, Hugh Outhred, Øystein Ulleberg, Frans van Hulle, Morgan Bazilian, Milou Beerepoot, Trevor Demayo, Eleanor Denny, David Infield, Andrew Keane, Arthur Lee, Michael Milligan, Andrew Mills, Michael Power, Paul Smith, Lennart Söder, Aidan Tuohy, Falko Ueckerdt, Jingjing Zhang, Jim Skea, Kai Strunz, Edenhofer, Ottmar, Pichs-Madruga, Ramon, Sokona, Youba, Seyboth, Kristin, Matschoss, Patrick, Kadner, Susanne, Zwickel, Timm, Eickemeier, Patrick, Hansen, Gerrit, Schlomer, Steffen, and von Stechow, Christoph
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Engineering ,Wind power ,business.industry ,Environmental economics ,Solar energy ,Civil engineering ,Energy engineering ,Renewable energy ,Electricity generation ,Marine energy ,Energy supply ,SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy ,business ,Hydropower - Abstract
To achieve higher renewable energy (RE) shares than the low levels typically found in present energy supply systems will require additional integration efforts starting now and continuing over the longer term. These include improved understanding of the RE resource characteristics and availability, investments in enabling infrastructure and research, development and demonstrations (RD&D), modifications to institutional and governance frameworks, innovative thinking, attention to social aspects, markets and planning, and capacity building in anticipation of RE growth.
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- 2011
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