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The irregular satellites within the Jupiter system hold high scientific value due to their potential to contain clues about the early evolution of the solar system. This paper proposes an optimization algorithm for multiple irregular satellites flyby trajectories, which includes the powered gravity assist from Galilean moons. The algorithm is based on beam search and uses virtual trajectories to determine potential flyby targets, solving for trajectories that satisfy constraints on velocity increment, mission duration, and perijove radius. By changing the initial orbital period and optimizing the number of branches with Galilean moon gravity assist during branching, and comparing with the case without Galilean moon gravity assist, the effects of these factors on the number of irregular satellite flybys are summarized. The simulation results show that the algorithm can effectively solve for orbits that flyby multiple irregular satellites for initial orbits of different periods. The three trajectories obtained can serve as references for future missions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydroclimate variations over eastern China are affected by the Asian monsoon, exhibiting great variability and frequent extreme events occurrence. However, the driving mechanisms of their spatial and temporal variabilities are not fully understood due to the short period of available climate observation data. Here we used interpolated dry/wet grades dataset derived from Chinese historical documents and method of regional division to reconstruct a new annual hydroclimatic variation dataset dating back 1000 years, including nine regions of eastern China. This dataset reveals the spatial coverage and trend of long‐lasting extreme drought and flood events, and discloses the spatial patterns and similarities of interannual (2–7‐year) and interdecadal (15–35‐year) hydroclimate variations under the different temperature backgrounds of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Little Ice Age (LIA) and Current Warm Period. Although no obvious drying or wetting trends were detected in the past 1000 years, the frequencies of extreme flood and drought events during the two warm periods of 960–1300 and 1901–2000 were higher than those during the cold period of 1301–1900. There are 17 long‐lasting and even severe than 1637–1641 large spatial scale extreme drought events during the past 1000 years. The observed spatial dipole pattern of flooding in the south and drought in the north, or the opposite pattern, was rare during the historical period. However, it was the second leading mode explaining the low variances in the principal component analysis for 2–7‐year hydroclimatic variations, which were not related to temperature change. Moreover, the stability of the teleconnection between the hydroclimate over eastern China and the climatic modes of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation was further discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report a rare case of Cushing's syndrome induced by an ectopic adrenocortical adenoma. A 57-year-old woman was diagnosed with adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH)-independent Cushing's syndrome based on clinical manifestation and laboratory information. She was found to have a mass in the left renal hilum via contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT). The mass was negative, as seen in somatostatin receptor imaging with 99mTc-hydrazinonicotinyl-Tyr3-octreotide (HYNIC-TOC), and showed mild fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) activity via positron emission tomography (PET)/CT. The results of adrenal venous sampling suggested a left-side adrenal origin of hypercortisolism, possibly secreted by the mass in the renal hilum. Histopathology after surgical resection of the mass confirmed an ectopic adrenocortical adenoma, which was responsible for the patient's Cushing's syndrome. During the 8-month follow-up after surgery, no recurrence of Cushing's syndrome was found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An extreme drought occurred from 1876 to 1878 in most regions of northern China, leading to a series of social impacts, including harvest failures, price inflation, and population migration. Most regions of the Northern Hemisphere concurrently experienced extreme drought. Here, we use reconstructed high-resolution hydroclimatic (Palmer Drought Severity Index/precipitation) datasets and investigate the seasonal–annual hydroclimatic spatial patterns and drought intensity in North China from 1876 to 1878. Furthermore, we select combined sea surface temperature (SST) modes with positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño conditions from the 1200-year control run simulations of HadCM3 to determine the possible causes of this severe drought. The extent and intensity of the selected SST modes are similar to those in the Pacific and Indian oceans during the 1876–1878 period from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) dataset. The results show that the large-scale drought of 1876–1878 is mainly driven by El Niño and a positive PDO, while the effect of IOD is not significant. El Niño may trigger the circumglobal teleconnection of the Northern Hemisphere. And, the meridional disturbance of the eastward Rossby wave train at mid-latitudes may change the intensity of the troughs and ridges and further block water vapor transport from ocean to land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To develop and validate a machine learning model based on radiomic features derived from 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) images to preoperatively predict the pathological grade in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Methods: A total of 149 patients (83 men, 66 women, mean age 61 years old) with pathologically proven PDAC and a preoperative 18F-FDG PET/CT scan between May 2009 and January 2016 were included in this retrospective study. The cohort of patients was divided into two separate groups for the training (99 patients) and validation (50 patients) in chronological order. Radiomics features were extracted from PET/CT images using Pyradiomics implemented in Python, and the XGBoost algorithm was used to build a prediction model. Conventional PET parameters, including standardized uptake value, metabolic tumor volume, and total lesion glycolysis, were also measured. The quality of the proposed model was appraised by means of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and areas under the ROC curve (AUC). Results: The prediction model based on a twelve-feature-combined radiomics signature could stratify PDAC patients into grade 1 and grade 2/3 groups with AUC of 0.994 in the training set and 0.921 in the validation set. Conclusion: The model developed is capable of predicting pathological differentiation grade of PDAC based on preoperative 18F-FDG PET/CT radiomics features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ancient Silk Road has a history of more than 2000 years and gave birth to the diversities of culture between East and West. Climate change may have played a crucial role in this process and in the flourishing and decline of civilizations. In this work, high-resolution temperature reconstructions covering more than 1000 years along the Ancient Silk Road are reviewed, and the main characteristics of temperature and hydroclimatic changes are summarized. Four warm stages occurred that included the 1st–3rd centuries, the late 7th century to the early 11th century, the mid-12th century to the mid-13th century, and since the 20th century, and three cold stages, including the 4th century to the early 7th century, the middle of the 11th century to the early 12th century, and the end of the 13th century to the mid-19th century, occurred. Within these various stages, regional differences existed in amplitudes and starting–ending years of the cold/warm phases. Wetness and dryness variabilities during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) were greater than during the Little Ice Age in Northwestern China. The climate was dry during the MCA in Central Asia, South Scandinavia, and North-central Europe. In addition, the climate backgrounds of several famous kingdoms flowering and social events that flourished during these times, such as the Roman Empire, the Loulan Kingdom, the Tibetan Kingdom, and the three unprecedented Mongol westward conquests, are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconstructed hydroclimatic spatial patterns from historical documents, the chronology of El Niño events since 1525, Meiyu (a unique rainy season dominated by the East Asian summer monsoon in eastern China) series since 1736, and a 1000-year control simulation using the Community Earth System Model were used to analyze the occurrence of anomalous summer precipitation patterns over eastern China with El Niño events. The results show that the frequency of the south-flood north-drought during 1525–2005 was significantly higher during El Niño episodes. Specifically, the occurrences of the triple pattern with floods in the Yangtze River Valley but droughts in its north and south (FYRDNS) as well as the dipole pattern with floods in the south but droughts in the north (FSDN) divided by the Yangtze River both increased in El Niño developing years, while the occurrence of FSDN increased in El Niño decaying years. Among 44 severe and extreme Meiyu events over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in 1736–2016, 75% of events occurred during El Niño episodes. Especially, 80% of extreme Meiyu events occurred in El Niño decaying years. The 1000-year control simulation captured well the reconstructed triple pattern of FYRDNS in developing years and the dipole pattern of FSDN in decaying years, with more noticeable precipitation anomalies for developing years of very strong and extremely strong El Niño events. These results implicated that the El Niño is likely an early signal for the occurrence of the south-flood north-drought over eastern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has a significant impact on agrometeorological conditions. We analysed the winter wheat overwintering indices for the northern winter wheat production areas of China (NWPA), which include the percentage of extreme low‐temperature (daily minimum temperature ≤−22 °C) years, the first day of the overwintering period (FDO), sowing date (SD) and precipitation before winter (PBW). Then, we compared the differences of the four indices between the forecast period 2021–2050 and the baseline period 1961–1990 under the RCP4.5 scenario, which were based on the 0.5° × 0.5° grid daily meteorological data output provided by the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The results showed that the occurrence of extreme cold winters decreases the NWPA, which will result in the northern boundary of winter wheat moving north by 1–2 latitudes and in an increase in the potentially safe overwintering areas by 8.5%. The FDO will be delayed in 2021–2050 by an average of 7.7 days. Climate warming will change the meteorological conditions for winter wheat overwintering in the Huang‐Huai winter wheat area, especially near the southern boundary of the winter wheat planting area, and the areas and years with no obvious overwintering periods will experience an increase by 50% and 56%, respectively. The SD will be postponed by 8.6–9.0 days. The PBW will decrease as the accumulated temperature increases, especially in the Huang‐Huai winter wheat area. In the future, the possible northern boundary for winter wheat planting may move northward, and the northernmost tip may reach 46°N. South of the Huang‐Huai region, winter wheat planting may change from a semi‐winter to a spring variety. These findings will provide a reference for generating wheat planting and management strategies in China. Climate change has significantly influenced the winter wheat planting in northern China. In 2021–2050, climate warming would decrease the occurrence of extreme cold winters in the regions near northern planting boundary, which would result in the possible northern boundary (red and green lines) moving northward, and the northernmost tip may reach 46°N. However, south of the Huang‐Huai region (black oval areas), wheat planting may change from a semi‐winter to a spring variety due to temperature increase and precipitation reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Anatomical and molecular staging strategies are needed for the personalized treatment of localized pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). This study evaluated the performance of [68 Ga]Ga–FAPI-04 and [18F]F-FDG PET/CT on the disease staging and prognostic value of patients with localized PDAC on contrast-enhanced (CE)-CT images. Methods: Patients with suspected localized PDAC on CE-CT were recruited for static [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 and 18[F]F-FDG and PET/CT, and select patients underwent simultaneous 60-min dynamic 68 Ga-FAPI-04 PET/CT. The diagnostic and staging performances of the static PET/CT results were evaluated by delineating regions of interest in the primary tumor, whole pancreas, and distal pancreas in both types of scans and then evaluating correlations between the PET/CT findings and clinicopathological characteristics. Furthermore, Kaplan–Meier and hazard ratio (log-rank) methods were used to evaluate the prognostic value of the combined dynamic [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 and static [18F]F-FDG PET/CT method. Results: We included 49 patients with histologically confirmed PDAC adenocarcinomas; 32 underwent 60-min dynamic [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 PET/CT imaging simultaneously. The static [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 method had significantly higher accuracy and uptake values than the static [18F]F-FDG method for primary PDAC lesions, metastatic lymph nodes, and distal metastases. Furthermore, 18.4% and 10.2% of the patients' stages changed after using the [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 and [18F]F-FDG PET/CT methodologies, respectively, compared to the CE-CT-designated stage. The Ki values obtained from dynamic [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 PET/CT did not differ between PDAC and distal obstructive pancreatitis lesions. Pathologically enlarged tumor size, poor differentiation, and perineural invasion were associated with increased [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 uptake but not with [18F]F-FDG uptake. The preoperative prognostic performance of [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 was better than that of [18F]F-FDG. Interestingly, combined [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 and [18F]F-FDG uptake results in the whole pancreas could further stratify patients based on their postoperative prognosis. Conclusion: 6[68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 PET/CT was more sensitive and accurate than [18F]F-FDG PET/CT for tumor, node, and metastasis staging of PDAC identified on CE-CT. Additionally, [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 uptake was significantly associated with pathologically aggressive tumor features. Combined [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 and [18F]F-FDG PET/CT findings improved the prognostic value, potentially providing a non-invasive guide for clinical management. Finally, increased fibroblast activity in PDAC-induced obstructive pancreatitis may be associated with poor patient survival rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial patterns of precipitation anomalies in eastern China during both warm and cold periods over the past 2000 years were studied. Four warm periods (AD 650-750, AD 1000-1100, AD 1190-1290, and AD 1900-2000) and five cold periods (AD 440-540, AD 780-920, AD 1390-1460, AD 1600-1700, and AD 1800-1900) were selected on a centennial timescale, referring to the synthesized temperature changes over China and Northern Hemisphere. The regional differences in precipitation were analysed and compared using a data set consisting of the grades in severity of floods and droughts as derived from Chinese historical documents. The results showed that there has been no fixed spatial pattern of precipitation anomalies during either cold or warm periods in eastern China over the past 2000 years. For the most of warm periods, there existed coherence of spatial pattern with dry condition only occurred over north of the Yangtze River, and the consistent spatial patterns were found between the periods 650-750 and 1190-1290, 650-750, and 1000-1100. For the cold periods, the precipitation showed various spatial patterns, and similarities were only presented in the two periods of 1600-1700 and 1800-1900 featured by meridional distribution. Comparing the spatial patterns between cold and warm periods, inverse pattern of 440-540 and 1900-2000 over the most study area can be detected, but similar pattern was also found between the periods 1800-1900 and 1900-2000, and 1600-1700 and 1900-2000. Our results implicated that the relationship between temperature and spatial pattern of precipitation anomaly has high complexity, which would be of significance to understanding the spatial pattern of precipitation in the future climate change study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Our aim was to assess the prognostic value of [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 positron emission tomography (PET) uptake in PDAC and to evaluate the correlation between in vivo lesional radioactivity with pathological characteristics of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Methods: We retrospectively analyzed treatment‐naïve PDAC patients who underwent preoperative [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 PET/CT followed by pancreatectomy. The tracer uptake was determined as maximum tumor standardized uptake value (SUVmax), FAPI-avid tumor volume (FTV), total lesion FAP expression (TLF) as well total pancreatic uptake (TSUVmax), total FAPI-avid pancreatic volume (FPV), and total pancreatic FAP expression (TPF). Spearman's correlation analysis was performed to evaluate the association between [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 PET/CT imaging and ex vivo immunohistological FAP expression and pathological characteristics of surgical specimens (differentiation, size, vascularity, perineural invasion, and lymph node metastases). Kaplan–Meier and hazard ratio (HR, log-rank) methods were used to evaluate the prognostic value of [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 PET/CT and clinicopathological factors. Results: Thirty-seven surgical PDAC patients were included. The ex vivo expression of FAP was significantly associated with the tumor SUVmax and TLF. FAP expression was more abundant in poorly differentiated PDAC than in well- to moderately differentiated neoplasms. Tumor SUVmax or TLF and pancreatic TSUVmax or TPF were significantly correlated with tumor size, differentiation, and perineural invasion, respectively. SUVmax had a significant independent prognostic value for recurrence-free survival (HR = 2.46, P < 0.05), while [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 TPF predicted overall survival (HR = 12.82, P < 0.05). Conclusion: The in vivo [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 uptake in localized PDAC showed a significant correlation with ex vivo FAP expression and aggressive pathological characteristics. [68 Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 PET/CT also presented a potential for postoperative prognostication of PDAC. Elevated fibroblast activity induced by obstructive pancreatitis might be associated with the patient's survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on observational data and Asian monsoon intensity datasets from China, the relationships between the East Asian winter monsoon index and winter temperature, the East Asian summer monsoon index and Meiyu precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, were analyzed. We found that the monsoon signals were reflected in the temperature and Meiyu precipitation variations. Thus, we used the reconstructed Meiyu precipitation and winter temperature series for the past 300 years and detected the summer/winter monsoon intensity signals using multi-taper spectral estimation method and wavelet analysis. The main periodicities of Meiyu precipitation and winter temperature, such as interannual cycle with 2–7-year, interdecadal-centennial cycles with 30–40-year and 50–100-year, were found. The good relationships between the East Asian summer and winter monsoons suggested that they were in phase at 31-year cycle, while out of phase at 100-year cycle, but with 20-year phase difference. In addition, the winter monsoon intensity may be regulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the summer monsoon is closely related to the signal intensities of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Proxy-based precipitation reconstruction is essential to study the inter-annual to decadal variability and underlying mechanisms beyond the instrumental period that is critically needed for climate modeling, prediction and attribution. Based on 2912 annually resolved proxy series mainly derived from tree rings and historical documents, we present a set of standard precipitation index (SPI) reconstructions for each year (November–October), covering the whole of Asia, and for the wet season (i.e., November–April for western Asia and May–October for the others) since 1700, with the spatial resolution of 2.5 ∘. To screen the optimal candidate proxies for SPI reconstruction in each grid from available proxies in its connected region with a homogeneous rainfall regime and similar precipitation variability, a new approach is developed by adopting the grid-location-dependent division derived from the instrumental SPI data. The validation shows that these reconstructions are effective for most of Asia. The assessment of data quality compared with gauge precipitation before calibration time indicates that our reconstruction has high quality to show the precipitation variability in most of the study areas, except for a few grids in western Russia, the coastal area of southeast Asia and northern Japan. The full dataset can be obtained from https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.01829 (Y. Liu et al., 2022). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun (YXFC) is one of the government archives of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1911) in China. It records the beginning/ending dates, duration and rainfall infiltration depths into soil and snowfall accumulation for individual precipitation event. By comparing YXFC with instrumental data, a set of criteria used to identify the rainy season was established. This set of criteria was used to reconstruct the initial/final dates and length of rainy season during 1736–1900 and 1955–2000 at three sites (including Taiyuan, Datong and Yulin) based on both YXFC records and instrumental data. The results show that there is evident inter-decadal variation in rainy season length, with periodicity of 16–20a, 30–40a and 50–60a. The length of the rainy season gradually increases before the mid-19th century and decreases afterward, and the length of rainy season in 1736–1840 is statistically significantly longer than that in 1955–2000. These findings suggest that the intensity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) became weaker from the mid-19th century, reaching the weakest condition in 1955–2000 during the context of the past 260 years. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Based on the reconstructed precipitation series in North China from historical documents, the 1876--1878 drought was identified as the most severe and extreme one in North China over the past 300 years. Meanwhile, the spatial patterns of seasonal and annual precipitation during 1876--1877 were analyzed and the social and economic impacts related with this drought event were evaluated according to the descriptions in the historical documents. The results indicated that this long-lasting drought started by the spring of 1876 and did not stop until the spring of 1878. Within the three years, the harvest failures brought the rice price increased to 5--10 times than that in the normal year, and the total population in the five provinces over North China decreased by more than 20 million due to a large number of dead people and migrations. In addition, related investigations suggested that the 1876--1878 drought was prevalent worldwide, which has possible link with abnormal high SST in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, strong El Niño episode and positive AAO anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to extract and make the best use of rainfall information contained in the Chinese historical archives of Qing Dynasty, and reconstruct the precipitation series during 1736–1911. The study followed the Yu-Fen-Cun (rainfall infiltration depth) observation method in Qing Dynasty, to conduct soil infiltration experiment under the natural rainfall conditions during 2004–2006. The related parameters, such as precipitation, intensity, initial soil moisture content and infiltration depth have been measured at 10 stations (east of 105°E, 30°–40°N) with representative climatic conditions and soil physical texture in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley. The statistical results indicate that precipitation is the primary influencing factor to infiltration depth and is positively correlated with the infiltration depth. Additionally, the effects of every factor on infiltration depth are significantly different between the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley. Finally, the relationship equations of precipitation and infiltration depth are established for each site, most of which can pass over 60% of the variance explanations and provide quantitative models to reconstruct the precipitation series using Yu-Fen-Cun records in Qing Dynasty. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

It is crucial to investigate the characteristics of fire danger in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region to improve the accuracy of local fire danger monitoring, forecasting, and management. With the use of instrumental observation data from 173 national meteorological stations in the BTH region from 1991 to 2020, the fire weather index (FWI) is first calculated in this study, and its spatiotemporal characteristics are analyzed. The high- and low-fire danger periods based on the FWI occur in April and August, respectively, with significant decreasing and increasing trends throughout the BTH region over the past 30 years. Next, the contributions of different meteorological factors to the FWI are quantified via a detrending technique. Most regions are affected by precipitation during the high-fire danger period. Both the maximum surface air temperature (Tmax) and precipitation, however, notably contribute to the FWI trend changes during the low-fire danger period. Then, we assess the linkage with atmospheric circulation. Abundant water vapor from the Northwest Pacific and local upward motion jointly lead to increased precipitation and, as a consequence, a decreased FWI during the high-fire danger period. A lack of water vapor from the boreal zone and local downward movement could cause adiabatic subsidence and hence, amplify the temperature and FWI during the low-fire danger period. In contrast to shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 585, in which the FWI in the BTH region exhibits a north–south dipole during the low-fire danger period, SSP245 yields an east–west dipole during the low-fire danger period. This study reveals that there is a higher-than-expected probability of fire danger during the low-fire danger period. Therefore, it is essential to intensify research on the fire danger during the low-fire danger period to improve our ability to predict summer fire danger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is crucial to investigate the characteristics of fire danger in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region to improve the accuracy of local fire danger monitoring, forecasting, and management. With the use of instrumental observation data from 173 national meteorological stations in the BTH region from 1991 to 2020, the fire weather index (FWI) is first calculated in this study, and its spatiotemporal characteristics are analyzed. The high- and low-fire danger periods based on the FWI occur in April and August, respectively, with significant decreasing and increasing trends throughout the BTH region over the past 30 years. Next, the contributions of different meteorological factors to the FWI are quantified via a detrending technique. Most regions are affected by precipitation during the high-fire danger period. Both the maximum surface air temperature (Tmax) and precipitation, however, notably contribute to the FWI trend changes during the low-fire danger period. Then, we assess the linkage with atmospheric circulation. Abundant water vapor from the Northwest Pacific and local upward motion jointly lead to increased precipitation and, as a consequence, a decreased FWI during the high-fire danger period. A lack of water vapor from the boreal zone and local downward movement could cause adiabatic subsidence and hence, amplify the temperature and FWI during the low-fire danger period. In contrast to shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 585, in which the FWI in the BTH region exhibits a north–south dipole during the low-fire danger period, SSP245 yields an east–west dipole during the low-fire danger period. This study reveals that there is a higher-than-expected probability of fire danger during the low-fire danger period. Therefore, it is essential to intensify research on the fire danger during the low-fire danger period to improve our ability to predict summer fire danger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lateral movement of soil organic carbon (SOC) induced by soil erosion and runoff changes spatial distributions of SOC, and further changes the land‐atmosphere CO2 exchange and terrestrial carbon budget. However, current ecosystem models do not or only poorly integrate the process of SOC lateral movement and cannot simulate the impacts of soil erosion on the carbon cycle. This study integrated SOC erosion and deposition processes into a process‐based ecosystem model (i.e., Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS)), and separately simulated the lateral movements of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC). The model was evaluated in three river basins in Northeast China that are dominated by cropland, forest, and grassland. The results showed that the model reproduced well the production, erosion, and deposition of DOC and POC. The annual SOC lateral movement (1.34–7.22 g C m−2 yr−1) induced by erosion in the three tested basins was 0.27%–1.45% of the annual net primary production. The model developed in this study has great implications for simulating the lateral movements of SOC in terrestrial ecosystems, which can improve model performance in projecting the terrestrial carbon budget. Plain Language Summary: Lateral movement of soil organic carbon (SOC) with soil erosion and runoff is an important process in estimating land carbon budget. However, the current ecosystem models are not or poorly integrated this process, and cannot simulate the impacts of lateral movement of SOC on carbon cycle. This study integrates SOC erosion and deposition processes into a process‐based ecosystem model (Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS)), and separately simulates the lateral movements of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC). The model was evaluated at three river basins in Northeast China dominated by cropland, forest and grassland, respectively. The results showed the model can reproduce well the production, erosion, deposition of DOC and POC. The model developed in this study has great implications for simulating the lateral movements of SOC in terrestrial ecosystem, which can improve model performance on projecting terrestrial carbon budget. Key Points: Current ecosystem models inadequately depict the lateral movement of SOC, causing uncertainties in terrestrial carbon cycle modelingWe integrated SOC erosion and deposition into a process‐based ecosystem model and evaluated it in three Chinese river basinsModel simulations well represented observed data for the production, erosion, and deposition of organic carbon [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The 70-gene signature (70-GS, MammaPrint) test has been recommended by the main guidelines to evaluate prognosis and chemotherapy benefit of hormonal receptor positive human epidermal receptor 2 negative (HR + /Her2−) early breast cancer (BC). However, this expensive assay is not always accessible and affordable worldwide. Based on our previous study, we established nomogram models to predict the binary and quartile categorized risk of 70-GS. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed a consecutive cohort of 150 female patients with HR + /Her2− BC and eligible 70-GS test. Comparison of 40 parameters including the patients' medical history risk factors, imaging features and clinicopathological characteristics was performed between patients with high risk (N = 62) and low risk (N = 88) of 70-GS test, whereas risk calculations from established models including Clinical Treatment Score Post-5 years (CTS5), Immunohistochemistry 3 (IHC3) and Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) were also compared between high vs low binary risk of 70-GS and among ultra-high (N = 12), high (N = 50), low (N = 65) and ultra-low (N = 23) quartile categorized risk of 70-GS. The data of 150 patients were randomly split by 4:1 ratio with training set of 120 patients and testing set 30 patients. Univariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression were performed to establish the two nomogram models to predict the the binary and quartile categorized risk of 70-GS. Results: Compared to 70-GS low-risk patients, the high-risk patients had significantly less cardiovascular co-morbidity (p = 0.034), more grade 3 BC (p = 0.006), lower progesterone receptor (PR) positive percentage (p = 0.007), more Ki67 high BC (≥ 20%, p < 0.001) and no significant differences in all the imaging parameters of ultrasound and mammogram. The IHC3 risk and the NPI calculated score significantly correlated with both the binary and quartile categorized 70-GS risk classifications (both p < 0.001). The area under curve (AUC) of receiver-operating curve (ROC) of nomogram for binary risk prediction were 0.826 (C-index 0.903, 0.799–1.000) for training and 0.737 (C-index 0.785, 0.700–0.870) for validation dataset respectively. The AUC of ROC of nomogram for quartile risk prediction was 0.870 (C-index 0.854, 0.746–0.962) for training and 0.592 (C-index 0.769, 0.703–0.835) for testing set. The prediction accuracy of the nomogram for quartile categorized risk groups were 55.0% (likelihood ratio tests, p < 0.001) and 53.3% (p = 0.04) for training and validation, which more than double the baseline probability of 25%. Conclusions: To our knowledge, we are the first to establish easy-to-use nomograms to predict the individualized binary (high vs low) and the quartile categorized (ultra-high, high, low and ultra-low) risk classification of 70-GS test with fair performance, which might provide information for treatment choice for those who have no access to the 70-GS testing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using multiple proxy data of historical hydroclimate variations, this study first selects the five heaviest megadrought decades in North China during the last millennium and then depicts the spatial pattern of hydroclimate over the Northern Hemisphere through these five megadrought decades. The results shows that abnormally dry conditions existed in East Asia, North America, and Europe when megadroughts in North China during the last millennium. The intensity of dry conditions in North America was stronger than that in Europe. Then, through comparing the spatial patterns of hydroclimate from proxy data with ensemble modeling of nine CMIP5/PMIP3 models, we find that such megadroughts in North China, and the contemporaneously abnormal dry conditions over the Northern Hemisphere were very likely mainly induced by external forcing, i.e., large volcanic eruptions and weakened solar irradiation. These external forcing may lead to climate cooling and, hence, air motion downward at mid-lower layer of troposphere, inducing a much more stable troposphere; as well as, the land-ocean pressure differences were weakened, and, hence, there would be decreased water vapor flux from ocean to land. Both of intensified stability of troposphere and weakened vapor transportations to land would lead to precipitation decline and, as a result, would be favorable for drought. It is therefore necessary to consider these external forcing into future climate change predicting to improve our ability of predicting megadrought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We reconstructed a 500-year long winter (November to February) temperature series with a yearly resolution in southern China. The series is based on six types of proxies extracted from historical documents, including the southern limits of frost disaster, freezing disaster and snow, along with snowfall days and the first/last frost disaster dates. In the reconstruction, linear regression models are established among each proxy and regional winter temperature. Variance matching, minimum selection, and envelope analysis methods are performed to eliminate non-homogeneous effects because of different proxy types, missing data, and the changing amount of records. Compared with the average temperatures during 1851–1950, the reconstruction shows that southern China experienced a cold period in the first 40 years of the sixteenth century with an average of −0.40 °C with frequent extremes. An upturning occurred during the 1540s to mid-1560s, followed by a stable phase until the 1620s. Then the temperature started to fall from the 1630s and reached its lowest in 1660, where it dropped to −2.01 °C. Moreover, the mean value was −0.49 °C between the years 1648–1697, which was the coldest 50 years over the last five centuries. The temperatures during the eighteenth century to the middle of the twentieth century was characterized by annual to decadal fluctuations, with two moderately warm intervals in the 1770s and 1840s–1850s, as well as three moderately cold intervals in 1790s, 1830s, and 1870s to the mid-1890s. Over the recent century, the warming rate since 1901 was 0.56 °C/100a, whereas the temperature reached 0.32 °C/10a after 1979. The hottest five years during the last five centuries all occurred after 1990. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the southern limit of snowfall recorded in Chinese documents, chronologies of tree-ring width, and tree-ring stable oxygen isotope (δO), the annual temperature anomaly in southern China during 1850-2009 is reconstructed using the method of signal decomposition and synthesis. The results show that the linear trend was 0.47°C (100 yr) over 1871-2009, and the two most rapid warming intervals occurred in 1877-1938 and 1968-2007, at rates of 0.125°C (10 yr) and 0.258°C (10 yr), respectively. The decadal variation shows that the temperature in the moderate warm interval of the 1910s-1930s was notably lower than that of the 1980s-2000s, which suggests that the warming since the 1980s was unprecedented for the past 160 years, though a warming hiatus existed in the 2000s. Additionally, there was a rapid cooling starting from the 1860s, followed by a cold interval until the early 1890s, with the coldest years in 1892 and 1893. A slight temperature decline was also found from the 1940s to the late 1960s. This study provides an independent case to validate the global warming for the past 160 years and its hiatus recently, because the proxy data are not affected by urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We reconstructed the annual temperature anomaly series in Xinjiang during 1850–2001 based on three kinds of proxies, including 17 tree-ring width chronologies, one tree-ring δ13C series and two δ18O series of ice cores, and instrumental observation data. The low- and high-frequency signal decomposition for the raw temperature proxy data was obtained by a fast Fourier transform filter with a window size of 20 years, which was used to build a good relationship that explained the high variance between the temperature and the proxy data used for the reconstruction. The results showed that for 1850–2001, the temperature during most periods prior to the 1920s was lower than the mean temperature in the 20th century. Remarkable warming occurred in the 20th century at a rate of 0.85°C/100a, which was higher than that during the past 150 years. Two cold periods occurred before the 1870s and around the 1910s, and a relatively warm interval occurred around the 1940s. In addition, the temperature series showed a warming hiatus of approximately 20 years around the 1970s, and a rapid increase since the 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To determine the optimal imaging tool for clinical evaluation of pancreatic neoplasm by comparing the performance of 18F-FDG PET/MRI and PET/CT.Procedures: Patients with suspected pancreatic neoplasms underwent PET/MRI and PET/CT in the same day prior to resection or endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration. Histology served as the golden standard of lesion classification. Visual assessment on lesion type and lesion malignancy via PET/MRI and PET/CT images was compared. Standard uptake values (SUVs) of PET images from the two scanners were measured and their correlations were further evaluated.Results: Thirty-nine patients were included for the final analysis. In visual assessment, we found MRI achieved better performance than CT in differentiating solid and cystic neoplasms, with accuracy of 100% vs. 87%, respectively. In visual malignancy diagnosis, the accuracy of PET/CT was 92.3% for overall lesions and 90.9% for cysts, while the accuracy of PET/MRI was 92.3% and 86.4%, respectively. Besides, semi-quantitative analysis achieved better specificity than visual assessment for both hybrid modalities (100% vs. 87.5% for PET/CT; 100% vs. 81.5% for PET/MR). Furthermore, strong correlation of SUV was found between PET/CT and PET/MRI, with Pearson's correlation coefficients > 0.82.Conclusions: In this study, we found PET/MRI and PET/CT, both using 18F-FDG as tracer, had comparable overall performance in identification of pancreatic neoplasms. Interestingly, for patients who had suspected pancreatic neoplasm but invisible FDG uptake, PET/MRI had shown exceptionally better performance, probably because MR images could detect tiny abnormal structures to improve diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: SSaSS (Salt Substitute and Stroke Study), a 5-year cluster randomized controlled trial, demonstrated that replacing regular salt with a reduced-sodium, added-potassium salt substitute reduced the risks of stroke, major adverse cardiovascular events, and premature death among individuals with previous stroke or uncontrolled high blood pressure living in rural China. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness profile of the intervention.Methods: A within-trial economic evaluation of SSaSS was conducted from the perspective of the health care system and consumers. The primary health outcome assessed was stroke. We also quantified the effect on quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Health care costs were identified from participant health insurance records and the literature. All costs (in Chinese yuan [¥]) and QALYs were discounted at 5% per annum. Incremental costs, stroke events averted, and QALYs gained were estimated using bivariate multilevel models.Results: Mean follow-up of the 20 995 participants was 4.7 years. Over this period, replacing regular salt with salt substitute reduced the risk of stroke by 14% (rate ratio, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.77-0.96]; P=0.006), and the salt substitute group had on average 0.054 more QALYs per person. The average costs (¥1538 for the intervention group and ¥1649 for the control group) were lower in the salt substitute group (¥110 less). The intervention was dominant (better outcomes at lower cost) for prevention of stroke as well as for QALYs gained. Sensitivity analyses showed that these conclusions were robust, except when the price of salt substitute was increased to the median and highest market prices identified in China. The salt substitute intervention had a 95.0% probability of being cost-saving and a >99.9% probability of being cost-effective.Conclusions: Replacing regular salt with salt substitute was a cost-saving intervention for the prevention of stroke and improvement of quality of life among SSaSS participants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study discusses the interannual variation of spring precipitation in Northeast China (NECSP) from 1980 to 2016 and its relationship with Arctic sea ice based on observation data and numerical experiments. The observed results reveal that the leading mode of NECSP mainly exhibits a homogenous pattern with a significant interannual variation. The NECSP has a significant negative correlation with the preceding winter Barents Sea ice concentration (BSIC) at the interannual scale. In the preceding winter, the decreased BSIC resulted in positive geopotential height anomalies over the polar region, which could weaken the polar vortex and westerly winds, forming a cyclonic anomaly indirectly over West Siberia. The circulation anomalies resulted in a zonal dipole pattern of preceding winter snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies in the mid‐high latitudes of Eurasia with less SWE over Eastern Europe and more SWE over West Siberia. The SWE anomalies in winter could persist to the subsequent spring and facilitate more precipitation over Northeast China (NEC) by local thermal processes affecting circulation anomalies over Eurasia. On the other hand, the negative preceding winter BSIC anomalies can persist to spring, increasing the NECSP by strengthening the cyclonic anomalies over NEC. In this study, the response of the atmosphere to the thermal effect of SWE is further verified by using the linear baroclinic model (LBM). The response of NECSP to BSIC loss is tested by using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The general characteristics of climate changes over the past 2000 years in China, regional differences and uncertainties were analyzed based on the recently peer-reviewed high time-resolution climatic reconstructions. The results showed that there exists four warm periods of the temperature variation in China since the Qin Dynasty, including the western and eastern Han Dynasties (200 BC-AD 180), the Sui and Tang dynasties (541-810), the Song and Yuan dynasties (931-1320), and the 20th century, and three cold phases involving the Wei, Jin, and North-South Dynasties (181-540), the late Tang Dynasty (811-930), and the Ming and Qing dynasties (1321-1920). The Song and Yuan warm period is consistent with the Medieval Warm Period over the Northern Hemisphere, and the cold phases of the North-South Dynasties and the Ming and Qing dynasties are paralleled to the Dark Ages Cold Period and the Little Ice Age, respectively. The 13th-15th century could be a shift to the wet condition of the climate, and the low precipitation variability is exhibited in western China prior to 1500. In the context of the climate warming, the pattern of the drought in north and flood in south is prevalent over the eastern China. In addition, the published reconstructions have a high level of confidence for the past 500 years, but large uncertainties exist prior to the 16th century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Zheng, J., Ding, L., Hao, Z. & Ge, Q. 2012 (January): Extreme cold winter events in southern China during AD 1650-2000. Boreas, Vol. 41, pp. 1-12. 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2011.00225.x. ISSN 0300-9483. We defined extreme cold winter events as those with occurrence probabilities lower than the 10th percentile of the probability density function, based on observed winter temperatures in southern China since 1951. Subsequently, we constructed impact severity levels using documentary evidence for those events during 1951-2000, considering three indexes for the freezing of rivers/lakes, widespread snow/ice storms, and cold damage to subtropical/tropical crops. Using these criteria we identified 50 extreme cold winters for the period AD 1650-1949 based on ∼4000 pieces of comparable information extracted from local gazettes in southern China, after verification using data from three weather stations with long records. It was found that the frequencies of the extreme cold winter events since 1650 varied over time. The most frequent occurrences were found during AD 1650-1699 and in the first and second halves of the 19th century, with frequencies twice as high as in the second half of the 20th century. In contrast, the frequencies of extreme winters during the 18th century were close to that in the second half of the 20th century. High frequencies of extreme cold winters in AD 1650-1720 and AD 1795-1835 occurred during the sunspot Maunder and Dalton Minima. The intensities of some historical cold events, such as those during 1653-1654, 1670, 1690, 1861, 1892 and 1929, exceeded those of the coldest winter events since 1951. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using 24 proxy temperature series, the rates of temperature change in China are analyzed at the 30- to 100-year scales for the past 2000 years and at the 10-year scale for the past 500 years. The results show that, at the 100-year scale, the warming rate for the whole of China in the 20th century was only 0.6±1.6°C/100 a (interval at the 95% confidence level, which is used hereafter), while the peak warming rate for the period from the Little Ice Age (LIA) to the 20th century reached 1.1±1.2°C/100 a, which was the greatest in the past 500 years and probably the past 2000 years. At the 30-year scale, warming in the 20th century was quite notable, but the peak rate was still less than rates for previous periods, such as the rapid warming from the LIA to the 20th century and from the 270s-290s to 300s-320s. At the 10-year scale, the warming in the late 20th century was very evident, but it might not be unusual in the context of warming over the past 500 years. The exact timing, duration and magnitude of the warming peaks varied from region to region at all scales. The peak rates of the 100-year scale warming in the AD 180s-350s in northeastern China as well as those in the 260s-410s and 500s-660s in Tibet were all greater than those from the mid-19th to 20th century. Meanwhile, the rates of the most rapid cooling at scales of 30 to 100 years in the LIA were prominent, but they were also not unprecedented in the last 2000 years. At the 10-year scale, for the whole of China, the most rapid decadal cooling in the 20th century was from the 1940s to 1950s with a rate of −0.3±0.6°C/10 a, which was similar to rates for periods before the 20th century. For all regions, the rates of most rapid cooling in the 20th century were all less than those for previous periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential causes of megadroughts over North China (NC) in the preindustrial period were investigated using eight climate models evolved using CMIP5/PMIP3 and multiple proxy data. The full forcing experiments driven by both external forcing and internal variability show that megadroughts in NC were accompanied by extensive decadal drying over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), particularly in most of North America and Europe. The spatial pattern of hydroclimate matched well with the proxy-based illustration. However, such hydroclimate conditions over NH were difficult to reproduce in control experiments driven solely by internal variability. This finding suggests that external forcing may be a crucial factor leading to megadroughts in NC and simultaneous decadal drying over the NH. Moreover, external forcing may lead to climate cooling. Climate cooling weakened the pressure gradient from the West Pacific to East Asia and hence reduced the water vapor to land; meanwhile, local vertical downward movement occurred in the cooling climate background, which was unfavorable to air convection over NC. Both reduced water vapor and weakened air convection led to less precipitation. Meanwhile, there was a negative NAO, which intensified the eastward wave train at mid-latitudes. Consequently, the North American trough and European trough deepened, the northerlies in the post trough pattern intensified, and the water vapor from the high-latitude continent or polar areas was low, which was unfavorable to precipitation. This study implies that the megadrought in NC and simultaneous hydroclimatic spatial pattern over the NH may be underestimated in the CMIP5 climate prediction, which excludes external forcing. • Megadrought in North China co-occur with extensive dry anomaly over North Hemisphere. • The dry-anomaly hydroclimate pattern occurs in global cooling, declined water vapor. • Abnormal external forcing, e.g., volcanic eruption, is necessary for the dry-anomaly. • Effects of abnormal external forcing may be active through negative NAO pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is an extended editors’ commentary on the topical collection “Historical and recent change in extreme climate over East Asia”, which collects a total of 15 papers related to the change and variability of extreme climate events in East Asia over the last few hundreds years. The extreme climate events are broadly classified into three categories: temperature and extreme warmth/coldness, precipitation and floods/droughts and western North Pacific typhoons. This commentary briefly summarizes the main findings presented in each paper in this topical collection, and outlines the implications of these findings for monitoring, detecting and modeling of regional climate change and for studying climate change impacts and adaptability. It also assesses the uncertainties of these studies, as well as the remaining knowledge gaps that should be filled in the future. One solid conclusion we can draw from these studies is that there was a marked decadal to multi-decadal variability of extreme climate events in East Asia in recent history, and the extreme events as observed during the last decades of the instrumental era were still within the range of natural variability except for some of those related to temperature. More severe and enduring droughts occurred in the early 20 th century or the earlier periods of history, frequently leading to great famines in northern China. Uncertainties remain in reconstructing historical extreme climate events and analyzing the early instrumental records. Further research could focus on the improvement of methodology in proxy based reconstruction of multi-decadal variations of surface air temperature and precipitation/drought, the recovery, digitization, calibration and verification of the early instrumental records, and the mechanisms of the observed multi-decadal variability of extreme climate in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents an analysis of the change of plant phenophase in spring and the impact of climate warming on the plant phenophase in China for the last 40 years, based on plant phenology data from 26 stations of the Chinese Phenology Observation Network of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the climate data. Reconstruction of the geographical distribution models of phenophase in every decade; Study of the impact of climate warming on geographical distribution model of phenophase;. Description of the results. which show that (i) the response of phenophase advance or delay to temperature change is nonlinear.

Technological advances have the potential to balance climate change mitigation and economic development. However, it remains unclear how much technological advances alone can mitigate climate change and the associated economic losses in the future. Through designing a suite of technological advances scenarios and using an earth system model with an integrated assessment model, we illustrate that rapid technological progress without production control might achieve the 2°C global warming target in the 2100s. Relative to a world of stagnant technology, the frequency (intensity) of extreme warm events at the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) would be reduced by ∼21% (5.5°C) via rapid technological advances, with a reduction in extreme precipitation (droughts) by ∼41% (10 times). Furthermore, fast technological advances may reduce the global economic losses linked with climate change at 2081–2100 by ∼21% and those in China related to floods (droughts) by 86% (67%). Our results highlight the potential of technological advances to fill the emission gap between the Paris Agreement and unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions and hence to efficiently mitigate global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential causes of megapluvials over Yangtze–Huaihe River valley (YHRV) during the last millennium were investigated using the Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) simulation data and multiple proxy data (i.e., reconstruction and paleoclimate assimilation data). Herein, we first depicted the spatial hydroclimatic pattern over the Northern Hemisphere when megapluvials occurred in the YHRV during the last millennium. The proxy and simulation data both showed that megapluvials in YHRV were accompanied by extensive decadal drought in western Asia and northwestern India, also located in mid to low latitudes. Then, by diagnosing the dynamic processes, we found that the baroclinic structure over western Asia and northwestern India caused anomalous geopotential heights, and hence triggered the negative phase of the Circumglobal Teleconnection (CGT). The eastwards wave train at mid-latitudes disturbed by the CGT mode, triggered lower-level northerlies and upper-level southerlies over the northern part of the YHRV and, as a consequence, led to anomalous strong convection near the YHRV. Together with abundant water vapour from the Pacific Northwest, there was a synergistic effect on megapluvial events over the YHRV. Finally, we analysed the linkage of surface temperature in western Asia and northwestern India and megapluvials in the YHRV. Land surface heating over western Asia and northwestern India may largely stimulate the formation of a negative CGT mode through local feedback of air–land interactions and, as a result, affect precipitation anomalies downstream, such as in the YHRV. It is therefore necessary to consider anomalous high surface temperatures in western Asia and northwestern India as important predictors for interdecadal severe floods in the YHRV. • Abnormal drought existed in northwestern India (NI) and western Asia (WA) when megapluvials were present in the YHRV. • The CGT mode was triggered by the high temperature of NI and WA through air–land interactions. • Abundant water vapour from the Pacific Northwest and strong convection over the YHRV led to megapluvials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: 99mTc-PYP scintigraphy provides differential diagnosis of ATTR cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM) from light chain cardiac amyloidosis and other myocardial disorders without biopsy. This study was aimed to assess the diagnostic feasibility and the operator reproducibility of 99mTc-PYP quantitative SPECT. Method: Thirty-seven consecutive patients who underwent a 99mTc-PYP thorax planar scan followed by SPECT and CT scans to diagnose suspected ATTR-CM were enrolled. For the quantitative SPECT, phantom studies were initially performed to determine the image conversion factor (ICF) and partial volume correction (PVC) factor to recover 99mTc-PYP activity concentration in the myocardium for calculating the standardized uptake value (SUV) (unit: g/ml). SUVmax was compared among groups of ATTR-CM, AL cardiac amyloidosis, and other pathogens (others) and among categories of Perugini visual scores (grades 0–3). The intra- and inter-operator reproducibility of quantitative SPECT was verified, and the corresponded repeatability coefficient (RPC) was calculated. Results: The ICF was 79,327 Bq/ml to convert count rate in pixel to 99mTc activity concentration. PVC factor as a function of the measured activity concentration ratio in the myocardium and blood-pool was [y = 1.424 × (1 − exp(− 0.759 × x)) + 0.104]. SUVmax of ATTR-CM (7.50 ± 2.68) was significantly higher than those of AL (1.96 ± 0.35) and others (2.00 ± 0.74) (all p < 0.05). SUVmax of grade 3 (8.95 ± 1.89) and grade 2 (4.71 ± 0.23) were also significantly higher than those of grade 1 (1.92 ± 0.31) and grade 0 (1.59 ± 0.39) (all p < 0.05). Correlation coefficient (R2) of SUVmax reached 0.966 to 0.978 with only small systematic difference (intra = − 0.14; inter = − 0.23) between two repeated measurements. Intra- and inter-operator RPCs were 0.688 and 0.877. Conclusions: 99mTc-PYP quantitative SPECT integrated with adjustable PVC factors is feasible to quantitatively and objectively assess the burden of cardiac amyloidosis for diagnosis of ATTR-CM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming may impact agricultural production across Central Asia. We used the simulated daily data of average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and analyzed the current climate status and future projected changes of a set of climate extreme indices related to agricultural production under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming. In addition, the possible impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Central Asia were discussed. The results show that the annual mean temperature in Central Asia will increase by 1.48 °C and 2.34 °C at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels, respectively, compared to the base period (1986–2005), and the increasing trends are significant at the α = 0.01 level for all grids. The number of warm days and growing season length will increase. Under the 1.5 °C scenario, the mean annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation (R95P) will experience increases of 7.68% and 26.55%, respectively, and the consecutive dry days (CDD) will be reduced by 1.1 days. However, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) shows significant drought conditions in most of Central Asia (more than 60%). Under the 2 °C scenario, there will be a 3.89% increase in PRCPTOT and a 24.78% increase in R95P. Nevertheless, accompanying the increase in CDD (0.8 day) and the decrease in SPEI, drought conditions will be further exacerbated. These results indicate that Central Asia is likely to face more severe ecological problems in the future, which will threaten the regional agricultural production and the food security. Therefore, adaptation strategies should be implemented immediately to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on Central Asia's agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We identified regional differences over China of winter temperature response to large volcanic eruptions with different latitudes and seasons from 1956 to 2005, and investigated atmospheric circulations for corresponding spatial patterns of winter temperature anomalies using reanalysis data and simulations by the Community Earth System Model. Both observations and simulations show that spatial patterns of winter temperature anomalies over China are related to the latitudes and seasons of the eruptions. Tropical volcanic eruptions during summer led to winter temperature decreases of 0.4–1.6 °C in eastern China due to the increase of height gradient. Winter volcanic eruptions led to extensive warming over Tibet. Following summer volcanic eruptions at low latitude, there were warm winters in eastern China because of a weak Siberian high. An anomalous southerly wind caused slight warming over most of China following winter eruptions. With the typical "trough–ridge–trough" at high latitude of the Northern Hemisphere, the winter temperature decreased in northeastern China and increased in western China following summer eruptions at mid-latitude. However, temperature generally increased after winter eruptions. For summer eruptions at high latitude, winter temperature showed a coherent decrease over northwest and east-central China due to an intensified Siberian High and East Asian trough. The widespread warming occurred over China because of the meridional circulation between 65°N and 45°N was weaker following winter volcanic eruptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploring the impacts of climate change on agriculture is one of important topics with respect to climate change. We quantitatively examined the impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield in Northern China using the Cobb–Douglas production function. Utilizing time-series data of agricultural production and meteorological observations from 1981 to 2016, the impacts of climatic factors on wheat production were assessed. It was found that the contribution of climatic factors to winter wheat yield per unit area (WYPA) was 0.762–1.921% in absolute terms. Growing season average temperature (GSAT) had a negative impact on WYPA for the period of 1981–2016. A 1% increase in GSAT could lead to a loss of 0.109% of WYPA when the other factors were constant. While growing season precipitation (GSP) had a positive impact on WYPA, as a 1% increase in GSP could result in 0.186% increase in WYPA, other factors kept constant. Then, the impacts on WYPA for the period 2021–2050 under two different emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were forecasted. For the whole study area, GSAT is projected to increase 1.37°C under RCP4.5 and 1.54°C under RCP8.5 for the period 2021–2050, which will lower the average WYPA by 1.75% and 1.97%, respectively. GSP is tended to increase by 17.31% under RCP4.5 and 22.22% under RCP8.5 and will give a rise of 3.22% and 4.13% in WYPA. The comprehensive effect of GSAT and GSP will increase WYPA by 1.47% under RCP4.5 and 2.16% under RCP8.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The capacity of spot urine samples for detecting changes in population sodium and potassium excretion is unclear.Methods: Changes in urinary sodium and potassium excretion, over a 6-month to 2-year interval, were measured from 24-h urine samples and estimated from spot urine samples using several published methods in 3270 Chinese. Additional estimates were made by multiplying individual spot sodium and potassium concentrations by a single estimated 24-h urine volume derived from external data.Results: The measured difference in 24-h urinary excretion between intervention and control groups was -0.35 g (95% CI: -0.68 to -0.02; P = 0.039) for sodium and 0.66 g (95% CI: 0.52 to 0.80; P < 0.001) for potassium, based upon 24-h urine samples. The corresponding estimates of sodium differences for the Tanaka (-0.06 g), Kawasaki (-0.09 g), Intersalt without potassium (-0.09 g) and Intersalt with potassium (-0.14 g) equations were all smaller and identified no reduction in sodium excretion (all P > 0.10). The estimates were -0.65 g for sodium and 1.11 g for potassium using individual spot urine concentrations and an externally derived standard urine volume (both P < 0.01).Conclusions: The published equations were unable to detect the differences in sodium excretion measured by 24-h urine samples. A method based upon spot urine electrolyte concentrations and a standard urine volume may offer an alternative approach to measuring differences in sodium and potassium excretion between population groups without requiring 24-h urine, but will need further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Proxy-based reconstructions of the Asian Summer Monsoon exhibit variability over multiple scales, from inter-annual to centennial. The relationship between East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) variability and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the last millennium remains unclear and a focus of current research. This study investigates this relationship using observations, reanalysis data, proxy-based reconstructions, and a control simulation using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The results derived from both the observation/reanalysis/proxy-based reconstruction and the simulation show consistently that the relationship between EASM strength and Niño3.4 SST is divergent. The observation/reanalysis data illustrate strong negative correlations between Niño3.4 SST and EASM strength at an annual scale in the 1920s-1930s and 1980s-1990s, with weak correlations during other periods. The proxy-based reconstruction demonstrates strong negative correlations at inter-decadal scales from the 1360s to the 1530s, with either weak correlations or positive correlations during other periods. Moreover, the simulations reveal positive correlations in some periods and negative or weak correlations in other periods. The simulations demonstrate that the divergent relationship may be derived from multi-decadal variations in Pacific SST caused by internal variability in the climate system, likely due to the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The EASM variation is usually in (out of) phase with Niño3.4 SST during the positive (negative) phase of the IPO. In the positive phase of the IPO, there is a tripolar pattern expressed in a cyclone-anticyclone-cyclone arrangement at pressure level of 850 hPa from the tropics to mid-latitudes over the northwest Pacific. Warming of the Niño3.4 strengthens the tropical cyclone by weakening the trade winds and subsequently strengthening the subtropical anticyclone, leading to a strong Meiyu front, which suggests a strong EASM. However, in the negative phase of the IPO, a huge cyclone occupies the northwest Pacific. Warming of the Niño3.4 strengthens the cyclone by weakening the trade winds, which leads to a weak Meiyu front, which suggests a weak EASM. These results may be helpful in further understanding the mechanisms through which the ENSO and IPO impact the atmospheric circulations in the Asian Pacific, especially regarding the long-term variations in EASM at inter-annual to inter-decadal scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Most estimates of Chinese regional Surface Air Temperatures since the late-19th century have identified two relatively warm periods – 1920s–40s and 1990s–present. However, there is considerable debate over how the two periods compare to each other. Some argue the current warm period is much warmer than the earlier warm period. Others argue the earlier warm period was comparable to the present. In this collaborative paper, including authors from both camps, the reasons for this ongoing debate are discussed. Several different estimates of Chinese temperature trends, both new and previously published, are considered. A study of the effects of urbanization bias on Chinese temperature trends was carried out using the new updated version of the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) – version 4 (currently in beta production). It is shown that there are relatively few rural stations with long records, but urbanization bias artificially makes the early warm period seem colder and the recent warm period seem warmer. However, current homogenization approaches (which attempt to reduce non-climatic biases) also tend to have similar effects, making it unclear whether reducing or increasing the relative warmth of each period is most appropriate. A sample of 17 Chinese temperature proxy series (12 regional and 5 national) is compared and contrasted specifically for the period since the 19th century. Most proxy series imply a warm early-20th century period and a warm recent period, but the relative warmth of these two periods differs between proxies. Also, with some proxies, one or other of the warm periods is absent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To limit global warming to well below 2°C in accord with the Paris Agreement, countries throughout the world have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the next few decades. However, it remains unclear what the resulting climate change is in response to the proposed INDCs and subsequent emission reductions. In this study, the global and regional warming under the updated INDC scenarios was estimated from a range of comprehensive Earth system models (CMIP5) and a simpler carbon-climate model (MAGICC), based on the relationship of climate response to cumulative emissions. The global GHG emissions under the updated INDC pledges are estimated to reach 14.2∼15.0 GtC/year in 2030, resulting in a global mean temperature increase of 1.29∼1.55°C (median of 1.41°C) above the preindustrial level. By extending the INDC scenarios to 2100, global GHG emissions are estimated to be around 6.4∼9.0 GtC/year in 2100, resulting in a global mean temperature increase by 2.67∼3.74°C (median of 3.17°C). The Arctic warming is projected to be most profound, exceeding the global average by a factor of three by the end of this century. Thus, climate warming under INDC scenarios is projected to greatly exceed the long-term Paris Agreement goal of stabilizing the global mean temperature at to a low level of 1.5‐2.0°C above the pre-industrial. Our study suggests that the INDC emission commitments need to be adjusted and strengthened to bridge this warming gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents new high-resolution proxies and paleoclimatic reconstructions for studying climate changes in China for the past 2000 years. Multi-proxy synthesized reconstructions show that temperature variation in China has exhibited significant 50-70-yr, 100-120-yr, and 200-250-yr cycles. Results also show that the amplitudes of decadal and centennial temperature variation were 1.3°C and 0.7°C, respectively, with the latter significantly correlated with long-term changes in solar radiation, especially cold periods, which correspond approximately to sunspot minima. The most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870-2000, at a rate of 0.56° ± 0.42°C (100 yr); however, temperatures recorded in the 20th century may not be unprecedented for the last 2000 years, as data show records for the periods AD 981-1100 and AD 1201-70 are comparable to the present. The ensemble means of dryness/wetness spatial patterns in eastern China across all centennial warm periods illustrate a tripole pattern: dry south of 25°N, wet from 25°-30°N, and dry to the north of 30°N. However, for all centennial cold periods, this spatial pattern also exhibits a meridional distribution. The increase in precipitation over the monsoonal regions of China associated with the 20th century warming can primarily be attributed to a mega El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In addition, a significant association between increasing numbers of locusts and dry/cold conditions is found in eastern China. Plague intensity also generally increases in concert with wetness in northern China, while more precipitation is likely to have a negative effect in southern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main obstacles that hamper the application of zeolites is the high consumption of expensive structure-directing agent. Herein, we reported the mechanochemisty-mediated solventless synthesis of AlPO 4 -11 aluminophosphate molecular sieve with low dosage of diisopropylamine (DIPA) as the structure-directing agent. The influences of DIPA/Al 2 O 3 ratio, fluoride ions, seed crystals and high-energy mechanochemical pretreatment on the synthesis of AEL-type zeolite were investigated in detail. Both DIPA and fluoride ions are indispensable for the successful synthesis of AEL phase. The resultant AEL molecular sieves were characterized by XRD, SEM, TG-DTA, CHN elements analysis, and N 2 physisorption. The results indicate that the introduction of seed crystals cannot improve the phase purity and crystallinity of the resulting products. On the other hand, high-energy mechanochemical pretreatment not only can affect the morphology of AEL zeolite, but more importantly, can also reduce the consumption of structure-directing agent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Average sodium intake and stroke mortality in northern China are both among the highest in the world. An effective, low-cost strategy to reduce sodium intake in this population is urgently needed. Objective: We sought to determine the effects of a community-based sodium reduction program on salt consumption in rural northern China. Design: This study was a cluster-randomized trial done over 18 months in 120 townships (one village from each township) from five provinces. Sixty control villages were compared to 60 intervention villages that were given access to a reduced-sodium, added-potassium salt substitute in conjunction with a community-based health education program focusing on sodium reduction. The primary outcome was the difference in 24-hour urinary sodium excretion between randomized groups. Results: Among 1,903 people with valid 24-hour urine collections, mean urinary sodium excretion in intervention compared with control villages was reduced by 5.5% (-14mmol/day, 95% confidence interval -26 to -1; p = 0.03), potassium excretion was increased by 16% (+7mmol/day, +4 to +10; p<0.001), and sodium to potassium ratio declined by 15% (-0.9, -1.2 to -0.5; p<0.001). Mean blood pressure differences were -1.1 mm Hg systolic (-3.3 to +1.1; p = 0.33) and -0.7 mm Hg diastolic (-2.2 to +0.8, p = 0.35) and the difference in the proportion with hypertension was -1.3% (-5.1 to 2.5, p = 0.56). Conclusion: There were clear differences in population sodium and potassium intake between villages that were most likely a consequence of increased use of salt substitute. The absence of effects on blood pressure reflects the moderate changes in sodium and potassium intake achieved. Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydroclimatic patterns in eastern China (EC) over the past millennium, both influenced by solar activity and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), are presented based on the climatic reconstructions and simulations. For strong solar activity, a consistent pattern exists where drought appears in the majority of EC initialized from the cold PDO phase, which is related to less moisture caused by the negative East Asia/Pacific-like (EAP-like) pattern and the enhanced western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). When the initial condition with a neutral or warm PDO phase is set up, there is a tripole-like pattern from north to south, i.e., drought–flood–drought for the neutral PDO phase and flood–drought–flood for the warm PDO phase, which is related to the positive EAP-like pattern with various moisture transportation paths. For weak solar activity, there are dipole-like patterns where drought occurs in the northern part of the Yangtze River and flood appears in the southern part initialized from the cold or warm PDO phase, which is possibly related to the influence of the weakened WPSH. When the initial condition is the neutral PDO phase, there is a tripole-like pattern from north to south (flood–drought–flood) in EC affected by the weakened WPSH and the intensive India–Burma trough. Notably, the vertical velocity anomalies of airflow, representing the vertical moisture transportations, correspond well with the hydroclimatic patterns in EC whenever the various initialization strategies of PDO phases are employed. • Hydroclimatic patterns in eastern China (EC) are related to solar activity and PDO. • A consistent pattern in EC for strong solar period (SS) and cold PDO initial phase. • The tripole-like patterns for SS and the neutral or warm PDO initial phase. • A tripole-like pattern for weak solar period (WS) and neutral PDO initial phase. • The dipole-like patterns for WS and the cold or warm PDO initial phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern meteorological observations in South China from 1960 to 2009 show a strong correlation between winter temperatures and two snowfall parameters, the southern boundary of the snow and the number of snowy days. Based on this relationship, the variation in annual winter mean temperature in South China from 1736 to 2009 was reconstructed using data acquired from Chinese historical documents dating from the Qing dynasty, such as memos and local gazettes. The reconstructed time series were used to analyse variations in winter temperature in South China. Significant interannual and interdecadal changes were found. The maximum temperature difference between neighbouring years was 3.1 °C for 1958-2009 and 3.0 °C for 1736-1957, whereas the maximum temperature difference between adjacent decades was 0.8 °C for the 1960s-2000s and 0.6 °C for the 1740s-1950s. The 2000s was the warmest decade; the mean temperature was 1.6 °C higher than that of the 1870s, which was the coldest decade between the 1740s and the 2000s. The mean winter temperature was warmer in the 18th and 20th centuries and coldest in the 19th century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the reconstructed temperatures, precipitation changes, and occurrences of extreme climate events, together with historical records on fiscal deterioration, food crises, and the frequencies of popular unrest, rebellions and wars, we identified three principal ways in which climate change contributed to the collapse in the Ming dynasty. Firstly, cooling, aridification, and desertification during a cold period destroyed the military farm system, which was the main supply system for the provisioning of government troops on the northern frontiers; these impacts increased the military expenditure from 64 % of total government expenditure in 1548-1569 to 76 % in 1570-1589 and thus aggravated the national fiscal crisis that occurred during the late Ming dynasty. Secondly, climate deterioration (e.g., cooling, aridification, and an increase in the frequencies of frost- and drought-related disasters, etc.) led to a 20-50 % reduction in the per capita production of raw grain in most areas of China, which resulted in widespread food crises and exacerbated the vulnerability of social structures during the last several decades of the Ming dynasty. Thirdly, the severe droughts occurring in 1627-1643 were a key trigger to the peasantry uprising. These droughts also played a significant role to promote the peasantry uprising, especially reviving the peasantry troops by recruitment of famine victims when they nearly perished in 1633 and 1638, and severely disrupting the food supply for the government troops, resulting in the final defeat of the government troops by the peasantry troops. This study contributes to an understanding of the climate-related mechanisms behind the collapse of the Ming dynasty, and provides a historical case study that enhances our understanding of the nature of interactions between climate change and social vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Paddy rice expansion resulted in a net cooling through the growing season. • Asymmetric pattern of LST change was found in the day and night. • Considerable seasonal variability in the cooling effects. • Nonradiative cooling exceeded radiative warming in paddy rice expansion. The pending extensive rice expansion in northeastern Asia, especially in northeast China, affects regional climate by altering both biogeochemical and biophysical processes. While the biogeochemical effects (e.g., CO 2 , CH 4) of rice expansion have attracted plenty of attention, its biophysical effects have not been well documented, especially its influences on diurnal and seasonal land surface temperature (LST). In this study, we used a pair-wise comparison approach to examine biophysical effects of paddy rice expansion at different temporal scales (diurnal and seasonal) in northeast China, based on satellite-derived biophysical proxies and a high-resolution crop map in 2017. We found that the daily mean LST of rice paddies was 0.5 °C lower than that of corn and soybean fields during the growing season (from May to September), as a result of daytime cooling (-1.8 and -2.0 °C) and nighttime warming (0.8 and 1.1 °C), which subsequently led to a narrower diurnal LST range (-2.6 and -3.0 °C) than in upland crops (i.e. corn and soybean). The cooling effects were stronger in the early period of the growing season (May and June) than in the late season (July to September). Using a temperature response model, we found that the nonradiative processes (i.e., evapotranspiration and sensible heat) dominated the LST response in paddy rice, while the radiative process (i.e., albedo) played a secondary role. The daytime cooling and nighttime warming implies that we need to consider the unsymmetrical diurnal LST dynamics when evaluating the short-term effects of paddy rice expansion. Stronger cooling effects in the early growing season has to be accounted for when modeling its biophysical impacts at seasonal scale. This study explained the local climate effects of rice expansion through the biophysical mechanism with both radiative and nonradiative controls on the surface energy balance, which can contribute to improved modeling of biophysical effects of land use change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]