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2. Global Distribution of Alveolar and Cystic Echinococcosis

Author

Deplazes, P., primary, Rinaldi, L., additional, Alvarez Rojas, C.A., additional, Torgerson, P.R., additional, Harandi, M.F., additional, Romig, T., additional, Antolova, D., additional, Schurer, J.M., additional, Lahmar, S., additional, Cringoli, G., additional, Magambo, J., additional, Thompson, R.C.A., additional, and Jenkins, E.J., additional

Published
2017
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3. Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning.

Author

Cromwell E.A., Osborne J.C.P., Unnasch T.R., Basanez M., Gass K.M., Barbre K.A., Hill E., Johnson K.B., Donkers K.M., Shirude S., Schmidt C.A., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Afarideh M., Ahmadpour E., Beshir Ahmed M., Yihunie Akalu T., Al-Aly Z., Alanezi F.M., Alanzi T.M., Alipour V., Andrei C.L., Ansari F., Ansha M.G., Anvari D., Yaw Appiah S.C., Arabloo J., Arnold B.F., Ausloos M., Ayanore M.A., Amin Baig A., Banach M., Barac A., Barnighausen T.W., Bayati M., Bhattacharyya K., Bhutta Z.A., Bibi S., Bijani A., Bohlouli S., Bohluli M., Brady O.J., Bragazzi N.L., Butt Z.A., Carvalho F., Chatterjee S., Chattu V.K., Chattu S.K., Cormier N.M., Dahlawi S.M.A., Damiani G., Daoud F., Darwesh A.M., Daryani A., Deribe K., Dharmaratne S.D., Diaz D., Do H.T., El Sayed Zak M., El Tantawi M., Elemineh D.A., Faraj A., Harandi M.F., Fatahi Y., Feigin V.L., Fernandes E., Foigt N.A., Foroutan M., Franklin R.C., Mohialdeen Gubari M.I., Guido D., Guo Y., Haj-Mirzaian A., Abdullah K.H., Hamidi S., Herteliu C., De Hidru H.D., Higazi T.B., Hossain N., Hosseinzadeh M., Househ M., Ilesanmi O.S., Ilic M.D., Ilic I.M., Iqbal U., Naghibi Irvani S.S., Jha R.P., Joukar F., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir Z., Kalankesh L.R., Kalhor R., Matin B.K., Karimi S.E., Kasaeian A., Kavetskyy T., Kayode G.A., Karyani A.K., Kelbore A.G., Keramati M., Khalilov R., Khan E.A., Nuruzzaman Khan M.N., Khatab K., Khater M.M., Kianipour N., Kibret K.T., Kim Y.J., Kosen S., Krohn K.J., Kusuma D., Vecchia C.L., Lansingh V.C., Lee P.H., Legrand K.E., Li S., Longbottom J., Abd El Razek H.M., Abd El Razek M.M., Maleki A., Mamun A.A., Manafi A., Manafi N., Mansournia M.A., Martins-Melo F.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., Meharie B.G., Mendoza W., Mengesha E.W., Mengistu D.T., Mereta S.T., Mestrovic T., Miller T.R., Miri M., Moghadaszadeh M., Hafshejani A.M., Mohammadpourhodki R., Mohammed S., Moradi M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Mosser J.F., Naderi M., Nagarajan A.J., Naik G., Negoi I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen T.H., Nikbakhsh R., Oancea B., Olagunju T.O., Olagunju A.T., Bali A.O., Onwujekwe O.E., Pana A., Pourjafar H., Rahim F., Ur Rahman M.H., Rathi P., Rawaf S., Rawaf D.L., Rawassizadeh R., Resnikoff S., Reta M.A., Rezapour A., Rubagotti E., Rubino S., Sadeghi E., Saghafipour A., Sajadi S.M., Samy A.M., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sawhney M., Schipp M.F., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi K., Sheikh A., Kumar Shetty B.S., Shin J.I., Shivakumar K.M., Simonetti B., Singh J.A., Skiadaresi E., Soheili A., Soltani S., Spurlock E.E., Sufiyan M.B., Tabuchi T., Tapak L., Thompson R.L., Thomson A.J., Traini E., Tran B.X., Ullah I., Ullah S., Uneke C.J., Unnikrishnan B., Uthman O.A., Melchers N.V.S.V., Violante F.S., Wolde H.F., Wonde T.E., Yamada T., Yaya S., Yazdi Feyzabadi V., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yousof H.-A.S.A., Yu C., Yu Y., Yusefzadeh H., Zaki L., Zaman S.B., Zamanian M., Zhang Z.-J., Zhang Y., Ziapour A., Hay S.I., Pigott D.M., Cromwell E.A., Osborne J.C.P., Unnasch T.R., Basanez M., Gass K.M., Barbre K.A., Hill E., Johnson K.B., Donkers K.M., Shirude S., Schmidt C.A., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Afarideh M., Ahmadpour E., Beshir Ahmed M., Yihunie Akalu T., Al-Aly Z., Alanezi F.M., Alanzi T.M., Alipour V., Andrei C.L., Ansari F., Ansha M.G., Anvari D., Yaw Appiah S.C., Arabloo J., Arnold B.F., Ausloos M., Ayanore M.A., Amin Baig A., Banach M., Barac A., Barnighausen T.W., Bayati M., Bhattacharyya K., Bhutta Z.A., Bibi S., Bijani A., Bohlouli S., Bohluli M., Brady O.J., Bragazzi N.L., Butt Z.A., Carvalho F., Chatterjee S., Chattu V.K., Chattu S.K., Cormier N.M., Dahlawi S.M.A., Damiani G., Daoud F., Darwesh A.M., Daryani A., Deribe K., Dharmaratne S.D., Diaz D., Do H.T., El Sayed Zak M., El Tantawi M., Elemineh D.A., Faraj A., Harandi M.F., Fatahi Y., Feigin V.L., Fernandes E., Foigt N.A., Foroutan M., Franklin R.C., Mohialdeen Gubari M.I., Guido D., Guo Y., Haj-Mirzaian A., Abdullah K.H., Hamidi S., Herteliu C., De Hidru H.D., Higazi T.B., Hossain N., Hosseinzadeh M., Househ M., Ilesanmi O.S., Ilic M.D., Ilic I.M., Iqbal U., Naghibi Irvani S.S., Jha R.P., Joukar F., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir Z., Kalankesh L.R., Kalhor R., Matin B.K., Karimi S.E., Kasaeian A., Kavetskyy T., Kayode G.A., Karyani A.K., Kelbore A.G., Keramati M., Khalilov R., Khan E.A., Nuruzzaman Khan M.N., Khatab K., Khater M.M., Kianipour N., Kibret K.T., Kim Y.J., Kosen S., Krohn K.J., Kusuma D., Vecchia C.L., Lansingh V.C., Lee P.H., Legrand K.E., Li S., Longbottom J., Abd El Razek H.M., Abd El Razek M.M., Maleki A., Mamun A.A., Manafi A., Manafi N., Mansournia M.A., Martins-Melo F.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., Meharie B.G., Mendoza W., Mengesha E.W., Mengistu D.T., Mereta S.T., Mestrovic T., Miller T.R., Miri M., Moghadaszadeh M., Hafshejani A.M., Mohammadpourhodki R., Mohammed S., Moradi M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Mosser J.F., Naderi M., Nagarajan A.J., Naik G., Negoi I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen T.H., Nikbakhsh R., Oancea B., Olagunju T.O., Olagunju A.T., Bali A.O., Onwujekwe O.E., Pana A., Pourjafar H., Rahim F., Ur Rahman M.H., Rathi P., Rawaf S., Rawaf D.L., Rawassizadeh R., Resnikoff S., Reta M.A., Rezapour A., Rubagotti E., Rubino S., Sadeghi E., Saghafipour A., Sajadi S.M., Samy A.M., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sawhney M., Schipp M.F., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi K., Sheikh A., Kumar Shetty B.S., Shin J.I., Shivakumar K.M., Simonetti B., Singh J.A., Skiadaresi E., Soheili A., Soltani S., Spurlock E.E., Sufiyan M.B., Tabuchi T., Tapak L., Thompson R.L., Thomson A.J., Traini E., Tran B.X., Ullah I., Ullah S., Uneke C.J., Unnikrishnan B., Uthman O.A., Melchers N.V.S.V., Violante F.S., Wolde H.F., Wonde T.E., Yamada T., Yaya S., Yazdi Feyzabadi V., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yousof H.-A.S.A., Yu C., Yu Y., Yusefzadeh H., Zaki L., Zaman S.B., Zamanian M., Zhang Z.-J., Zhang Y., Ziapour A., Hay S.I., and Pigott D.M.

Abstract

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 x 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5x5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ult

Published
2021

4. Old lake versus young taxa: a comparative phylogeographic perspective on the evolution of Caspian Sea gastropods (Neritidae: Theodoxus)

Author

Sands, A.F., Neubauer, T.A., Nasibi, S., Harandi, M.F., Anistratenko, Vitaliy, Wilke, T., Albrecht, C., and Staff publications

Subjects
molluscs, Pontocaspian, PRIDE, lake-level fluctuations, ancient lakes, Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, Grant agreement no: 642973, Action: H2020-MSCA-ITN-2014, salinity
Abstract

The Caspian Sea has been a highly dynamic environment throughout the Quaternary and witnessed major oscillations in lake level, which were associated with changes in salinity and habitat availability. Such environmental pressures are considered to drive strong phylogeographic structures in species by forcing populations into suitable refugia. However, little is actually known on the effect of lake-level fluctuations in the Caspian Sea on its aquatic biota. We compared the phylogeographic patterns of the aquatic Neritidae snail genus Theodoxus across the Pontocaspian region with refugial populations in southern Iran. Three gene fragments were used to determine relationships and divergence times between the sampled populations in both groups. A dated phylogeny and statistical haplotype networks were generated in conjunction with the analyses of molecular variance and calculations of isolation by distance using distance-based redundancy analyses. Extended Bayesian skyline plots were constructed to assess demographic history. Compared with the southern Iranian populations, we found little phylogeographic structure for the Pontocaspian Theodoxus group, with more recent diversification, homogeneity of haplotypes across the Pontocaspian region and a relatively stable demographic history since the Middle Pleistocene. Our results argue against a strong influence of Caspian Sea low stands on the population structure post the early Pleistocene, whereas high stands may have increased the dispersal possibilities and homogenization of haplotypes across the Pontocaspian region during this time. However, during the early Pleistocene, a more dramatic low stand in the Caspian Sea, around a million years ago, may have caused the reduction in Theodoxus diversity to a single lineage in the region. In addition, our results provide new insights into Theodoxus taxonomy and outlooks for regional conservation.

Published
2019

5. Global distribution of alveolar and cystic echinococcosis

Author

Deplazes, P., Rinaldi, L., Alvarez Rojas, C.A., Torgerson, P.R., Harandi, M.F., Romig, T., Antolova, D., Schurer, J.M., Lahmar, S., Cringoli, G., Magambo, J., Thompson, R.C.A., Jenkins, E.J., Deplazes, P., Rinaldi, L., Alvarez Rojas, C.A., Torgerson, P.R., Harandi, M.F., Romig, T., Antolova, D., Schurer, J.M., Lahmar, S., Cringoli, G., Magambo, J., Thompson, R.C.A., and Jenkins, E.J.

Abstract

Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) and cystic echinococcosis (CE) are severe helminthic zoonoses. Echinococcus multilocularis (causative agent of AE) is widely distributed in the northern hemisphere where it is typically maintained in a wild animal cycle including canids as definitive hosts and rodents as intermediate hosts. The species Echinococcus granulosus, Echinococcus ortleppi, Echinococcus canadensis and Echinococcus intermedius are the causative agents of CE with a worldwide distribution and a highly variable human disease burden in the different endemic areas depending upon human behavioural risk factors, the diversity and ecology of animal host assemblages and the genetic diversity within Echinococcus species which differ in their zoonotic potential and pathogenicity. Both AE and CE are regarded as neglected zoonoses, with a higher overall burden of disease for CE due to its global distribution and high regional prevalence, but a higher pathogenicity and case fatality rate for AE, especially in Asia. Over the past two decades, numerous studies have addressed the epidemiology and distribution of these Echinococcus species worldwide, resulting in better-defined boundaries of the endemic areas. This chapter presents the global distribution of Echinococcus species and human AE and CE in maps and summarizes the global data on host assemblages, transmission, prevalence in animal definitive hosts, incidence in people and molecular epidemiology.

Published
2017

9. Molecular and morphological characterization of Echinococcus granulosus of human and animal origin in Iran

Author

Harandi, M.F., Hobbs, R.P., Adams, P.J., Mobedi, I., Morgan-Ryan, U.M., Thompson, R.C.A., Harandi, M.F., Hobbs, R.P., Adams, P.J., Mobedi, I., Morgan-Ryan, U.M., and Thompson, R.C.A.

Abstract

Iran is an important endemic focus of cystic hydatid disease (CHD) where several species of intermediate host are commonly infected with Echinococcus granulosus. Isolates of E. granulosus were collected from humans and other animals from different geographical areas of Iran and characterized using both DNA (PCR-RFLP of ITS1) and morphological criteria (metacestode rostellar hook dimensions). The sheep and camel strains/genotypes were shown to occur in Iran. The sheep strain was shown to be the most common genotype of E. granulosus affecting sheep, cattle, goats and occasionally camels. The majority of camels were infected with the camel genotype as were 3 of 33 human cases. This is the first time that cases of CHD in humans have been identified in an area where a transmission cycle for the camel genotype exists. In addition, the camel genotype was found to cause infection in both sheep and cattle. Results also demonstrated that both sheep and camel strains can be readily differentiated on the basis of hook morphology alone.

Published
2002

10. Molecular and morphological characterization of the tapeworm Taenia hydatigena (Pallas, 1766) in sheep from Iran.

Author

Rostami, S., Salavati, R., Beech, R.N., Babaei, Z., Sharbatkhori, M., Baneshi, M.R., Hajialilo, E., Shad, H., and Harandi, M.F.

Subjects
TAPEWORM physiology, TAENIA, SHEEP physiology, MOLECULAR genetics, SLAUGHTERING, CALIBRATION
Abstract

Although Taenia hydatigena is one of the most prevalent taeniid species of livestock, very little molecular genetic information exists for this parasite. Up to 100 sheep isolates of T. hydatigena were collected from 19 abattoirs located in the provinces of Tehran, Alborz and Kerman. A calibrated microscope was used to measure the larval rostellar hook lengths. Following DNA extraction, fragments of cytochrome c oxidase 1 (CO1) and 12S rRNA genes were amplified by the polymerase chain reaction method and the amplicons were subjected to sequencing. The mean total length of large and small hooks was 203.4 μm and 135.9 μm, respectively. Forty CO1 and 39 12S rRNA sequence haplotypes were obtained in the study. The levels of pairwise nucleotide variation between individual haplotypes of CO1 and 12S rRNA genes were determined to be between 0.3–3.4% and 0.2–2.1%, respectively. The overall nucleotide variation among all the CO1 haplotypes was 9.7%, and for all the 12S rRNA haplotypes it was 10.1%. A significant difference was observed between rostellar hook morphometry and both CO1 and 12S rRNA sequence variability. A significantly high level of genetic variation was observed in the present study. The results showed that the 12S rRNA gene is more variable than CO1. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Published
2015
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11. Genetic characterization of Echinococcus granulosus in camels, cattle and sheep from the south-east of Iran indicates the presence of the G3 genotype.

Author

Hajialilo, E., Harandi, M.F., Sharbatkhori, M., Mirhendi, H., and Rostami, S.

Subjects
*ECHINOCOCCUS granulosus, *ANIMAL diseases, *EPIDEMIOLOGY, *MITOCHONDRIA, *GENETICS, *POLYMERASE chain reaction, *HOSTS (Biology), *SLAUGHTERING
Abstract

Echinococcus granulosus, the aetiologic agent of cystic echinococcosis (CE), is one of the most important zoonotic helminthes worldwide. Isolates of the parasite show considerable genetic variation in different intermediate hosts. Several genotypes and species are described in different eco-epidemiological settings. This study investigated E. granulosus genotypes existing in livestock and humans from the province of Kerman, located in south-eastern Iran, using sequencing data of cox1 and nad1 mitochondrial genes. Fifty-eight E. granulosus isolates, including 35 from sheep, 11 from cattle, 9 from camels and 3 from goats, were collected from slaughterhouses throughout Kerman. One human isolate was obtained from a surgical case of CE. Mitochondrial cox1 and nad1 regions were amplified using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and 38 isolates were sequenced. Genotypes G1 (73.7%), G3 (13.2%) and G6 (13.1%) were identified from the isolates. G1 was the most common genotype from sheep (86.7%), cattle (80%), camels (44.4%) and goats (100%). Sheep, cattle and camels were also found to be infected with the G3 genotype (buffalo strain). The human isolate was identified as the G6 genotype. Results showed that the G3 genotype occurred in different animal hosts in addition to G1 and G6 genotypes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2012
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12. Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Author

Fereshteh Ansari, Richard C. Franklin, Naznin Hossain, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Mahdi Bohluli, Irena Ilic, Anwar Faraj, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Sanni Yaya, Hagos Degefa Hidru, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Ehsan Sadeghi, Bach Xuan Tran, Leila Zaki, Mohammad Miri, Maha El Tantawi, Maciej Banach, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Kira A Barbre, Chigozie Jesse Uneke, Mehdi Naderi, Behzad Karami Matin, Yunquan Zhang, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Zahid A Butt, Nuruzzaman Khan, Robert L. Thompson, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Rovshan Khalilov, Usman Iqbal, K M Shivakumar, Leili Tapak, Chris A Schmidt, Priya Rathi, Shanshan Li, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Chuanhua Yu, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Davood Anvari, Hoa Thi Do, Abdullah Al Mamun, Obinna Onwujekwe, Serge Resnikoff, Majid Fasihi Harandi, Joshua C. P. Osborne, Farahnaz Joukar, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Rohollah Kalhor, Turki Alanzi, Katie M Donkers, Amir Kasaeian, Eirini Skiadaresi, Aleksandra Barac, Simon I. Hay, Paul S. F. Yip, Tomislav Mestrovic, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Katherine Gass, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Gurudatta Naik, Joshua Longbottom, Somayeh Bohlouli, Aziz Rezapour, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Khaled Khatab, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Ahmed Omar Bali, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Paul H. Lee, Vahid Alipour, Kebede Deribe, Megan F. Schipp, Ziyad Al-Aly, Biagio Simonetti, Masoud Moradi, Jalal Arabloo, Reza Rawassizadeh, Saif Ullah, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Demelash Abewa Elemineh, Abedin Saghafipour, Fakher Rahim, Tinuke O Olagunju, Kimberly B. Johnson, Souranshu Chatterjee, Salvatore Rubino, Nataliya Foigt, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Taras Kavetskyy, Carlo La Vecchia, Eduarda Fernandes, Mohsen Mazidi, Claudiu Herteliu, Sojib Bin Zaman, Aziz Sheikh, Yong Yu, David Laith Rawaf, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Natalie V S Vinkeles Melchers, Samath D Dharmaratne, Enrico Rubagotti, Fahad Alanezi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Masoud Foroutan, B. Suresh Kumar Shetty, Milena Ilic, Melese Abate Reta, Dian Kusuma, Ali Manafi, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Giovanni Damiani, Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Van C. Lansingh, Till Bärnighausen, Benjamin F. Arnold, Natalie Maria Cormier, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Ahmad Daryani, Ali Bijani, Jae Il Shin, Samer Hamidi, Jasvinder A. Singh, Mohsen Bayati, Tomohide Yamada, Zubair Kabir, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Jonathan F. Mosser, Gbenga A. Kayode, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Shahin Soltani, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Salah Eddin Karimi, Alan J Thomson, Daniel Diaz, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Adrian Pana, Salman Rawaf, Oliver J. Brady, Birhanu Geta Meharie, Yousef Fatahi, Sadia Bibi, Bogdan Oancea, Masoud Moghadaszadeh, Kelemu Tilahun Kibret, Valery L. Feigin, Saad M.A. Dahlawi, Ted R. Miller, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Atif Amin Baig, Maryam Zamanian, Kate E. LeGrand, Salahuddin Mohammed, Yuming Guo, Irfan Ullah, Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof, Mowafa Househ, Ionut Negoi, Naohiro Yonemoto, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Hadi Pourjafar, Navid Manafi, Neda Kianipour, Abraham Getachew Kelbore, Victor Adekanmbi, Seid Tiku Mereta, Olalekan A. Uthman, Arash Ziapour, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Francesco Saverio Violante, Monika Sawhney, Paula Moraga, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, María-Gloria Basáñez, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Mona M. Khater, Andrew T Olagunju, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Davide Guido, Kiomars Sharafi, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Tarig B. Higazi, Afshin Maleki, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Soewarta Kosen, Amin Soheili, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Thomas R. Unnasch, Mohsen Afarideh, Takahiro Tabuchi, Shreya Shirude, Marcel Ausloos, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Amira Shaheen, Shafiu Mohammed, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Eugenio Traini, Leila R Kalankesh, Kris J. Krohn, Colm McAlinden, Walter Mendoza, Maryam Keramati, Ravi Prakash Jha, David M. Pigott, Elex Hill, Abdallah M. 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Subjects
Oncocercosis, Decision Analysis, RC955-962, Onchocerciasis, law.invention, Geographical Locations, Medical Conditions, 0302 clinical medicine, law, Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, Medicine and Health Sciences, 030212 general & internal medicine, Onchocerca, 11 Medical and Health Sciences, Data Management, biology, Pharmaceutics, wc_695, Enfermedades Parasitarias, Onchocerciasi, 3. Good health, Infectious Diseases, Geography, Transmission (mechanics), Helminth Infections, Engineering and Technology, Mass Drug Administration, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270, Management Engineering, Cartography, Human, Research Article, Neglected Tropical Diseases, Computer and Information Sciences, Drug Administration, 030231 tropical medicine, Decision tree, wa_395, Dermatology, wc_765, Environment, wc_885, Research and Analysis Methods, Skin Diseases, 03 medical and health sciences, Drug Therapy, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, Diagnostic Medicine, Tropical Medicine, Parasitic Diseases, medicine, Humans, Disease Eradication, Spatial analysis, Ivermectin, Data collection, Receiver operating characteristic, Data Visualization, Decision Trees, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, 06 Biological Sciences, Elimination planning, Africa, Implementation units, Public health, Tropical Diseases, medicine.disease, biology.organism_classification, Health Care, ROC Curve, People and Places, Health Statistics, Morbidity, Scale (map), Forecasting
Abstract

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify., Author summary As of 2018, it was unknown if onchocerciasis transmission occurred among approximately 2 400 implementation units (IUs; typically, second administrative-level units, such as districts) considered potentially endemic. These IUs have either never been surveyed for onchocerciasis or historical data are not sufficient to define contemporary endemicity status. Given the large number of IUs for which baseline data collection is likely required to achieve continental elimination, there is a need to prioritise areas for surveys to ensure that those suitable for endemic transmission, and therefore potentially eligible for mass drug administration, are able to initiate interventions as soon as possible. We used boosted regression trees to predict environmental suitability for onchocerciasis, with corresponding measures of uncertainty. We summarized the fine scale spatial predictions at the IU level by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to identify a threshold that maximized agreement with the occurrence locations to identify IUs that may warrant prioritisation for mapping surveys. This analysis suggests that approximately half of the IUs considered for surveys could be classified as environmentally suitable for onchocerciasis. In order to develop an elimination strategy, many national onchocerciasis elimination programmes (NOEPs) need a mechanism to synthesise historical data to define priority areas for surveys.

Published
2021
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