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1. Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024

Author

Bustamante, Mercedes, Roy, Joyashree, Ospina, Daniel, Achakulwisut, Ploy, Aggarwal, Anubha, Bastos, Ana, Broadgate, Wendy, Canadell, Josep G, Carr, Edward R, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen A, Ebi, Kristie L, Edwards, Clea, Farbotko, Carol, Fernández-Martínez, Marcos, Frölicher, Thomas L, Fuss, Sabine, Geden, Oliver, Gruber, Nicolas, Harrington, Luke J, Hauck, Judith, Hausfather, Zeke, Hebden, Sophie, Hebinck, Aniek, Huq, Saleemul, Huss, Matthias, Jamero, M Laurice P, Juhola, Sirkku, Kumarasinghe, Nilushi, Lwasa, Shuaib, Mallick, Bishawjit, Martin, Maria, McGreevy, Steven, Mirazo, Paula, Mukherji, Aditi, Muttitt, Greg, Nemet, Gregory F, Obura, David, Okereke, Chukwumerije, Oliver, Tom, Orlove, Ben, Ouedraogo, Nadia S, Patra, Prabir K, Pelling, Mark, Pereira, Laura M, Persson, Åsa, Pongratz, Julia, Prakash, Anjal, Rammig, Anja, Raymond, Colin, Redman, Aaron, Reveco, Cristobal, Rockström, Johan, Rodrigues, Regina, Rounce, David R, Schipper, E Lisa F, Schlosser, Peter, Selomane, Odirilwe, Semieniuk, Gregor, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Siddiqui, Tasneem A, Singh, Vartika, Sioen, Giles B, Sokona, Youba, Stammer, Detlef, Steinert, Norman J, Suk, Sunhee, Sutton, Rowan, Thalheimer, Lisa, Thompson, Vikki, Trencher, Gregory, van der Geest, Kees, Werners, Saskia E, Wübbelmann, Thea, Wunderling, Nico, Yin, Jiabo, Zickfeld, Kirsten, and Zscheischler, Jakob

Subjects
Development Studies, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, Environmental Sciences, Human Society, Climate change impacts and adaptation, Development studies
Abstract

Non-technical summary: We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary The IPCC Assessment Reports offer the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitute an unmatched resource for climate change researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding across diverse climate change research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesise essential research advances. We collected input from experts on different fields using an online questionnaire and prioritised a set of ten key research insights with high policy relevance. This year we focus on: (1) looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgency of phasing-out fossil fuels, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future of natural carbon sinks, (5) need for join governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in the science of compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We first present a succinct account of these Insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a report targeted to policymakers as a contribution to elevate climate science every year, in time for the UNFCCC COP. Social media summary We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research - with input from more than 200 experts 1.

Published
2023

8. Cyclone Gabrielle as a Design Storm for Northeastern Aotearoa New Zealand Under Anthropogenic Warming.

Author

Stone, Dáithí A., Noble, Christopher J., Bodeker, Greg E., Dean, Sam M., Harrington, Luke J., Rosier, Suzanne M., Rye, Graham D., and Tradowsky, Jordis S.

Subjects
RAINSTORMS, STORMS, WEATHER forecasting, TROPICAL cyclones, RAINFALL
Abstract

Cyclone Gabrielle passed along the northern coast of Aotearoa New Zealand in February 2023, producing historic rainfall accumulations and impacts. Gabrielle was an ex‐tropical cyclone that stalled and re‐energised off the north coast, resembling descriptions of worst case scenarios for the northeast of the country. Here we report on a comparison of the actual forecast of the storm against forecasts under conditions representative of a climate without anthropogenic interference and of a climate +2.0°C warmer than pre‐industrial (about 1.0°C cooler and warmer than present respectively). We find that regional total rainfall accumulations from a Gabrielle‐like storm are about 10% higher because of the historical anthropogenic warming, and will increase by a larger amount under similar future warming. These differences are driven by a 20% (relative to a non‐anthropogenic world) to 30% (relative to a +2.0°C world) rise in peak rainfall rates, which in turn is mainly driven by a more temporally concentrated column‐integrated moisture flux. The forecast model generates the larger increase for the +2.0°C world through greater precipitation efficiency, reflecting the importance of unresolved precipitation processes in the climate change response of rainfall extremes. Plain Language Summary: Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle formed in the Coral Sea in February 2023, then moved southeast and passed along the northern coast of Aotearoa New Zealand as an ex‐tropical cyclone. The storm's rainfall produced one of the worst natural disasters in the country's history. We compare the weather forecast of the storm against forecasts in which past anthropogenic warming is removed and in which future warming is added. We find that the storm would have dumped about 10% less total rainfall and 20% less peak hourly rainfall without human interference. A similar future amount of warming will result in a comparable total increase in storm rainfall but with about a 30% increase in the peak hourly rate. Key Points: Cyclone Gabrielle delivered large amounts of rain to northeastern Aotearoa New Zealand in February 2023Anthropogenic warming increases the total amount of rain delivered by a Gabrielle‐like storm by about 10%/°CAnthropogenic warming increases the peak amount of rain delivered by a Gabrielle‐like storm by about 20%–30%/°C [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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18. Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Author

Otto, Friederike EL, Zachariah, Mariam, Saeed, Fahad, Siddiqi, Ayesha, Kamil, Shahzad, Mushtaq, Haris, Arulalan, T, AchutaRao, Krishna, Chaithra, ST, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, Van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Harrington, Luke J, Clarke, Ben, European Climate Foundation, Commission of the European Communities, Otto, Friederike EL [0000-0001-8166-5917], Saeed, Fahad [0000-0003-1899-9118], Vautard, Robert [0000-0001-5544-9903], Koren, Gerbrand [0000-0002-2275-0713], Thalheimer, Lisa [0000-0002-3737-3586], Yang, Wenchang [0000-0003-0053-9527], Harrington, Luke J [0000-0002-1699-6119], Clarke, Ben [0000-0002-9498-6266], and Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository

Subjects
13 Climate Action, 3701 Atmospheric Sciences, 4101 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, 37 Earth Sciences, Climate-Related Exposures and Conditions, 41 Environmental Sciences
Abstract

As a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced the worst flooding in its history. We employ a probabilistic event attribution methodology as well as a detailed assessment of the dynamics to understand the role of climate change in this event. Many of the available state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate these rainfall characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show a much smaller change in likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall than the trend we found in the observations. This discrepancy suggests that long-term variability, or processes that our evaluation may not capture, can play an important role, rendering it infeasible to quantify the overall role of human-induced climate change. However, the majority of models and observations we have analysed show that intense rainfall has become heavier as Pakistan has warmed. Some of these models suggest climate change could have increased the rainfall intensity up to 50%. The devastating impacts were also driven by the proximity of human settlements, infrastructure (homes, buildings, bridges), and agricultural land to flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, limited ex-ante risk reduction capacity, an outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities driven by high poverty rates and socioeconomic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, and education), and ongoing political and economic instability. Both current conditions and the potential further increase in extreme peaks in rainfall over Pakistan in light of anthropogenic climate change, highlight the urgent need to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather in Pakistan.

Published
2023

19. Supplementary material to "Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 West-Central European soil drought"

Author

Schumacher, Dominik L., primary, Zachariah, Mariam, additional, Otto, Friederike, additional, Barnes, Clair, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Vahlberg, Maja, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Heinrich, Dorothy, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, van Aalst, Maarten, additional, Hauser, Mathias, additional, Hirschi, Martin, additional, Bessenbacher, Verena, additional, Gudmundsson, Lukas, additional, Beaudoing, Hiroko K., additional, Rodell, Matthew, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Vecchi, Gabriel A., additional, Harrington, Luke J., additional, Lehner, Flavio, additional, Balsamo, Gianpaolo, additional, and Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional

Published
2023
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20. Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Author

Otto, Friederike E L, Zachariah, Mariam, Saeed, Fahad, Siddiqi, Ayesha, Kamil, Shahzad, Mushtaq, Haris, Arulalan, T, AchutaRao, Krishna, Chaithra, S T, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Harrington, Luke J, Clarke, Ben, Otto, Friederike E L, Zachariah, Mariam, Saeed, Fahad, Siddiqi, Ayesha, Kamil, Shahzad, Mushtaq, Haris, Arulalan, T, AchutaRao, Krishna, Chaithra, S T, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Harrington, Luke J, and Clarke, Ben

Abstract

As a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced the worst flooding in its history. We employ a probabilistic event attribution methodology as well as a detailed assessment of the dynamics to understand the role of climate change in this event. Many of the available state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate these rainfall characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show a much smaller change in likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall than the trend we found in the observations. This discrepancy suggests that long-term variability, or processes that our evaluation may not capture, can play an important role, rendering it infeasible to quantify the overall role of human-induced climate change. However, the majority of models and observations we have analysed show that intense rainfall has become heavier as Pakistan has warmed. Some of these models suggest climate change could have increased the rainfall intensity up to 50%. The devastating impacts were also driven by the proximity of human settlements, infrastructure (homes, buildings, bridges), and agricultural land to flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, limited ex-ante risk reduction capacity, an outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities driven by high poverty rates and socioeconomic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, and education), and ongoing political and economic instability. Both current conditions and the potential further increase in extreme peaks in rainfall over Pakistan in light of anthropogenic climate change, highlight the urgent need to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather in Pakistan.

Published
2023

21. 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024

Author

Bustamante, Mercedes, Roy, Joyashree, Ospina, Daniel, Achakulwisut, Ploy, Aggarwal, Anubha, Bastos, Ana, Broadgate, Wendy, Canadell, Josep G., Carr, Edward R., Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen A., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea, Farbotko, Carol, Fernández-Martínez, Marcos, Frölicher, Thomas L., Fuss, Sabine, Geden, Oliver, Gruber, Nicolas, Harrington, Luke J., Hauck, Judith, Hausfather, Zeke, Hebden, Sophie, Hebinck, Aniek, Huq, Saleemul, Huss, Matthias, Jamero, Laurice P., Juhola, Sirkku, Kumarasinghe, Nilushi, Lwasa, Shuaib, Mallick, Bishawjit, Martin, Maria, McGreevy, Steven, Mirazo, Paula, Mukherji, Aditi, Muttitt, Greg, Nemet, Gregory F., Obura, David, Okereke, Chukwumerije, Oliver, Tom, Orlove, Ben, Ouedraogo, Nadia S., Patra, Prabir K., Pelling, Mark, Pereira, Laura M., Persson, Åsa, Pongratz, Julia, Prakash, Anjal, Rammig, Anja, Raymond, Colin, Redman, Aaron, Reveco, Cristobal, Rockström, Johan, Rodrigues, Regina, Rounce, David R., Schipper, Lisa F., Schlosser, Peter, Selomane, Odirilwe, Semieniuk, Gregor, Shin, Yunne Jai, Siddiqui, Tasneem A., Singh, Vartika, Sioen, Giles B., Sokona, Youba, Stammer, Detlef, Steinert, Norman J., Suk, Sunhee, Sutton, Rowan, Thalheimer, Lisa, Thompson, Vikki, Trencher, Gregory, Van Der Geest, Kees, Werners, Saskia E., Wübbelmann, Thea, Wunderling, Nico, Yin, Jiabo, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Zscheischler, Jakob, Blome, Tanja, Wolff, Maria, Bustamante, Mercedes, Roy, Joyashree, Ospina, Daniel, Achakulwisut, Ploy, Aggarwal, Anubha, Bastos, Ana, Broadgate, Wendy, Canadell, Josep G., Carr, Edward R., Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen A., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea, Farbotko, Carol, Fernández-Martínez, Marcos, Frölicher, Thomas L., Fuss, Sabine, Geden, Oliver, Gruber, Nicolas, Harrington, Luke J., Hauck, Judith, Hausfather, Zeke, Hebden, Sophie, Hebinck, Aniek, Huq, Saleemul, Huss, Matthias, Jamero, Laurice P., Juhola, Sirkku, Kumarasinghe, Nilushi, Lwasa, Shuaib, Mallick, Bishawjit, Martin, Maria, McGreevy, Steven, Mirazo, Paula, Mukherji, Aditi, Muttitt, Greg, Nemet, Gregory F., Obura, David, Okereke, Chukwumerije, Oliver, Tom, Orlove, Ben, Ouedraogo, Nadia S., Patra, Prabir K., Pelling, Mark, Pereira, Laura M., Persson, Åsa, Pongratz, Julia, Prakash, Anjal, Rammig, Anja, Raymond, Colin, Redman, Aaron, Reveco, Cristobal, Rockström, Johan, Rodrigues, Regina, Rounce, David R., Schipper, Lisa F., Schlosser, Peter, Selomane, Odirilwe, Semieniuk, Gregor, Shin, Yunne Jai, Siddiqui, Tasneem A., Singh, Vartika, Sioen, Giles B., Sokona, Youba, Stammer, Detlef, Steinert, Norman J., Suk, Sunhee, Sutton, Rowan, Thalheimer, Lisa, Thompson, Vikki, Trencher, Gregory, Van Der Geest, Kees, Werners, Saskia E., Wübbelmann, Thea, Wunderling, Nico, Yin, Jiabo, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Zscheischler, Jakob, Blome, Tanja, and Wolff, Maria

Abstract

Each year, Future Earth, the Earth League and the World Climate Research Programme gather leading scholars from around the world to review the most pressing findings in climate research. The result is the 10 New Insights in Climate Science, delivered as two self-standing products: a peer-reviewed scientific article and this policy report providing a rich and valuable synthesis for policymakers and society at large. The scientific evidence underpinning this year’s report was published between January 2022–June 2023. For policymakers responding to the urgent challenge of the climate crisis, the 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024 offers credible guidance through 2024 and beyond.

Published
2023

22. Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Author

Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Otto, Friederike E L, Zachariah, Mariam, Saeed, Fahad, Siddiqi, Ayesha, Kamil, Shahzad, Mushtaq, Haris, Arulalan, T, AchutaRao, Krishna, Chaithra, S T, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Harrington, Luke J, Clarke, Ben, Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Otto, Friederike E L, Zachariah, Mariam, Saeed, Fahad, Siddiqi, Ayesha, Kamil, Shahzad, Mushtaq, Haris, Arulalan, T, AchutaRao, Krishna, Chaithra, S T, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Wolski, Piotr, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, van Aalst, Maarten, Thalheimer, Lisa, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Harrington, Luke J, and Clarke, Ben

Published
2023

23. 2022 early-summer heatwave in Southern South America: 60 times more likely due to climate change

Author

Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Rivera, Juan Antonio, Arias, Paola A. A., Soerensson, Anna A. A., Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel A. A., Harrington, Luke J. J., Otto, Friederike E. L., Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Rivera, Juan Antonio, Arias, Paola A. A., Soerensson, Anna A. A., Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Raju, Emmanuel, Li, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel A. A., Harrington, Luke J. J., and Otto, Friederike E. L.

Published
2023

24. Law, justice and the role of courts in changing the social superstructure narrative in climate litigation:A Rejoinder to Benoit Mayer

Author

Otto, Friederike E.L., Minnerop, Petra, Raju, Emmanuel, Harrington, Luke J., Stuart-Smith, Rupert F., Boyd, Emily, James, Rachel, Jones, Richard G., Lauta, Kristian C., Otto, Friederike E.L., Minnerop, Petra, Raju, Emmanuel, Harrington, Luke J., Stuart-Smith, Rupert F., Boyd, Emily, James, Rachel, Jones, Richard G., and Lauta, Kristian C.

Abstract

In the article Causality and the fate of climate litigation: The role of the social superstructure narrative, we argue that an enhanced and wider understanding of attribution science will shape the social superstructure narrative of climate change. This social superstructure narrative influences courts in their decision-making. Benoit Mayer, in the same issue, has commented on our article. We use this rejoinder to clarify three elements of Mayer's comments in his response to help avoid any misconception of our argument or misunderstanding of the German Civil Code and thus hopefully enrich the discussion. These clarifications speak to the role of the courts first to preserve the rule of law and second in the context of climate change with the third clarification relating to the legal basis of a specific claim under German law., In the article Causality and the fate of climate litigation: The role of the social superstructure narrative, we argue that an enhanced and wider understanding of attribution science will shape the social superstructure narrative of climate change. This social superstructure narrative influences courts in their decision-making. Benoit Mayer, in the same issue, has commented on our article. We use this rejoinder to clarify three elements of Mayer's comments in his response to help avoid any misconception of our argument or misunderstanding of the German Civil Code and thus hopefully enrich the discussion. These clarifications speak to the role of the courts first to preserve the rule of law and second in the context of climate change with the third clarification relating to the legal basis of a specific claim under German law.

Published
2023

26. Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Author

Otto, Friederike E L, primary, Zachariah, Mariam, additional, Saeed, Fahad, additional, Siddiqi, Ayesha, additional, Kamil, Shahzad, additional, Mushtaq, Haris, additional, Arulalan, T, additional, AchutaRao, Krishna, additional, Chaithra, S T, additional, Barnes, Clair, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Vautard, Robert, additional, Koren, Gerbrand, additional, Pinto, Izidine, additional, Wolski, Piotr, additional, Vahlberg, Maja, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, van Aalst, Maarten, additional, Thalheimer, Lisa, additional, Raju, Emmanuel, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Harrington, Luke J, additional, and Clarke, Ben, additional

Published
2023
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30. Limited role of climate change in extreme low rainfall associated with southern Madagascar food insecurity, 2019–21

Author

Harrington, Luke J, primary, Wolski, Piotr, additional, Pinto, Izidine, additional, Ramarosandratana, Anzelà Mamiarisoa, additional, Barimalala, Rondrotiana, additional, Vautard, Robert, additional, Philip, Sjoukje, additional, Kew, Sarah, additional, Singh, Roop, additional, Heinrich, Dorothy, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, Raju, Emmanuel, additional, Thalheimer, Lisa, additional, Razanakoto, Thierry, additional, van Aalst, Maarten, additional, Li, Sihan, additional, Bonnet, Remy, additional, Yang, Wenchang, additional, Otto, Friederike E L, additional, and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, additional

Published
2022
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32. Climate change made record breaking early season heat in Argentina and Paraguay about 60 times more likely: World Weather Attribution Scientific Report

Author

Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Rivera, Juan Antonio, Arias, Paola A., Sörensson, Anna A., Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjouke, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Raju, Emmanuel, Yang, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel A., Harrington, Luke J., Otto, Friederike E.L., Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Rivera, Juan Antonio, Arias, Paola A., Sörensson, Anna A., Zachariah, Mariam, Barnes, Clair, Philip, Sjouke, Kew, Sarah, Vautard, Robert, Koren, Gerbrand, Pinto, Izidine, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Raju, Emmanuel, Yang, Sihan, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel A., Harrington, Luke J., and Otto, Friederike E.L.

Published
2022

33. Limited role of climate change in extreme low rainfall associated with southern Madagascar food insecurity, 2019–21

Author

Harrington, Luke J, Wolski, Piotr, Pinto, Izidine, Ramarosandratana, Anzelà Mamiarisoa, Barimalala, Rondrotiana, Vautard, Robert, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Singh, Roop, Heinrich, Dorothy, Arrighi, Julie, Raju, Emmanuel, Thalheimer, Lisa, Razanakoto, Thierry, Van Aalst, Maarten, Li, Sihan, Bonnet, Remy, Yang, Wenchang, Otto, Friederike E L, Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Harrington, Luke J, Wolski, Piotr, Pinto, Izidine, Ramarosandratana, Anzelà Mamiarisoa, Barimalala, Rondrotiana, Vautard, Robert, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Singh, Roop, Heinrich, Dorothy, Arrighi, Julie, Raju, Emmanuel, Thalheimer, Lisa, Razanakoto, Thierry, Van Aalst, Maarten, Li, Sihan, Bonnet, Remy, Yang, Wenchang, Otto, Friederike E L, and Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan

Abstract

Southern Madagascar recently experienced a severe food security crisis, made significantly worse by well below average rainfall from July 2019 to June 2021. This exceptional drought has affected a region with high pre-existing levels of vulnerability to food insecurity (subsistence agriculture and pastoralism in the region is rain-fed only), while impacts have been compounded further by COVID-19 restrictions and pest infestations. The rainy seasons of both 2019/20 and 2020/21 saw just 60% of normal rainfall across the Grand South region and was estimated as a 1-in-135 year dry event, only surpassed in severity by the devastating drought of 1990–92. Based on a combination of observations and climate modelling, the likelihood of experiencing such poor rains in the region was not significantly increased due to human-caused climate change: while the observations and models combine to indicate a small shift toward more droughts like the 2019–2021 event as a consequence of climate change, these trends remain overwhelmed by natural variability. This result is consistent with previous research, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Sixth Assessment Report concluding that any perceptible changes in drought will only emerge in this region if global mean temperatures exceed 2 °C above pre-industrial levels

Published
2022

34. Causality and the fate of climate litigation:The role of the social superstructure narrative

Author

Otto, Friederike E. L., Minnerop, Petra, Raju, Emmanuel, Harrington, Luke J., Stuart-Smith, Rupert F., Boyd, Emily, James, Rachel, Jones, Richard G., Lauta, Kristian Cedervall, Otto, Friederike E. L., Minnerop, Petra, Raju, Emmanuel, Harrington, Luke J., Stuart-Smith, Rupert F., Boyd, Emily, James, Rachel, Jones, Richard G., and Lauta, Kristian Cedervall

Published
2022

35. Climate Change made devastating early heat in India and Pakistan 30 times more likely

Author

Zachariah, Mariam, Arulalan, T., AchutaRao, Krishna, Saeed, Fahad, Jha, Roshan, Dhasmana, Manish Kumar, Mondal, Arpita, Bonnet, Remy, Vautard, Robert, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, Heinrich, Dorothy, Thalheimer, Lisa, Marghidan, Carolina Pereira, Kapoor, Aditi, van Aalst, Maarten, Raju, Emmanuel, lI, Sihan, Sun, Jingru, Vecchi, Gabriel, Yang, Wenchang, Hauser, Mathias, Schumacher, Dominik L., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Harrington, Luke J., Otto, Friederike E. L., Zachariah, Mariam, Arulalan, T., AchutaRao, Krishna, Saeed, Fahad, Jha, Roshan, Dhasmana, Manish Kumar, Mondal, Arpita, Bonnet, Remy, Vautard, Robert, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, Heinrich, Dorothy, Thalheimer, Lisa, Marghidan, Carolina Pereira, Kapoor, Aditi, van Aalst, Maarten, Raju, Emmanuel, lI, Sihan, Sun, Jingru, Vecchi, Gabriel, Yang, Wenchang, Hauser, Mathias, Schumacher, Dominik L., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Harrington, Luke J., and Otto, Friederike E. L.

Published
2022

36. Law, justice and the role of courts in changing the social superstructure narrative in climate litigation: A Rejoinder to Benoit Mayer 1.

Author

Otto, Friederike E. L., Minnerop, Petra, Raju, Emmanuel, Harrington, Luke J., Stuart‐Smith, Rupert F., Boyd, Emily, James, Rachel, Jones, Richard G., and Lauta, Kristian C.

Subjects
SOCIAL role change, GREENHOUSE gases, LAWYERS, ACTIONS & defenses (Law)
Abstract

In I Lliuya v RWE i , the claimant relies upon §1004 German Civil Code, a provision that belongs in the system of the German Civil Code to nuisance law, I not i to the law of torts. Lastly, it should be noted that nuisance law in accordance with §1004 Civil Code does not provide for considerations such as Mayer's suggestion that 'Lliuya himself might have benefitted indirectly from the economic impact of the economic development generated by RWE and other emission-intensive activities'. [Extracted from the article]

Published
2023
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40. Using Detection And Attribution To Quantify How Climate Change Is Affecting Health

Author

Ebi, Kristie L., Åström, Christofer, Boyer, Christopher J., Harrington, Luke J., Hess, Jeremy J., Honda, Yasushi, Kazura, Eileen, Stuart-Smith, Rupert F., Otto, Friederike E. L., Ebi, Kristie L., Åström, Christofer, Boyer, Christopher J., Harrington, Luke J., Hess, Jeremy J., Honda, Yasushi, Kazura, Eileen, Stuart-Smith, Rupert F., and Otto, Friederike E. L.

Abstract

The question of whether, how, and to what extent climate change is affecting health is central to many climate and health studies. We describe a set of formal methods, termed detection and attribution, used by climatologists to determine whether a climate trend or extreme event has changed and to estimate the extent to which climate change influenced that change. We discuss events where changing weather patterns were attributed to climate change and extend these analyses to include health impacts from heat waves in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and Japan, and we show how such impact attribution could be applied to melting ice roads in the Arctic. Documenting the causal chain from emissions of greenhouse gases to observed human health outcomes is important input into risk assessments that prioritize health system preparedness and response interventions and into financial investments and communication about potential risk to policy makers and to the public.

Published
2020
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41. Toward an inventory of the impacts of human-induced climate change

Author

Otto, Friederike EL, Harrington, Luke J, Frame, David, Boyd, Emily, Lauta, Kristian Cedervall, Wehner, Michael, Clarke, Ben, Raju, Emmanuel, Boda, Chad, Hauser, Mathias, James, Rachel A, Jones, Richard G, Otto, Friederike EL, Harrington, Luke J, Frame, David, Boyd, Emily, Lauta, Kristian Cedervall, Wehner, Michael, Clarke, Ben, Raju, Emmanuel, Boda, Chad, Hauser, Mathias, James, Rachel A, and Jones, Richard G

Published
2020
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