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In addition to the omnipresent Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs), sudden solar energetic particle (SEP) events present considerable health hazards for manned space missions. These events not only contribute to an increased long-term cancer risk, but can, in extreme cases, cause acute radiation syndromes. Forecasting their imminent occurrence could significantly reduce radiation exposure by warning astronauts to move to shelter. However, all currently available tools are primarily designed for the Earth or Earth-Moon system, which limits their applicability to future Mars missions. To address this, we developed a nowcasting system for SEP events applicable in deep space and on the Martian surface, which serves as a reliable last-resort backup when forecasts fail. The methodology of this system is based on dose rates measured by the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) onboard the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), which recorded 5 SEP events during the seven-month flight to Mars and 16 since its landing on Mars on August 6, 2012. An SEP event is triggered, and an astronaut is warned as soon as dose rates exceed the omnipresent background level by at least 25%. This approach suggests that our system can provide astronauts with at least 30 minutes to avoid both peak radiation exposure and the majority of the cumulative dose from SEP events. Our nowcasting system is robust, easily implementable in real-life scenarios, and achieves a near-zero false alarm rate both in deep space and on the Martian surface.

Recently, we witnessed how the synergy of small satellite technology and solar sailing propulsion enables new missions. Together, small satellites with lightweight instruments and solar sails offer affordable access to deep regions of the solar system, also making it possible to realize hard-to-reach trajectories that are not constrained to the ecliptic plane. Combining these two technologies can drastically reduce travel times within the solar system, while delivering robust science. With solar sailing propulsion capable of reaching the velocities of ~5-10 AU/yr, missions using a rideshare launch may reach the Jovian system in two years, Saturn in three. The same technologies could allow reaching solar polar orbits in less than two years. Fast, cost-effective, and maneuverable sailcraft that may travel outside the ecliptic plane open new opportunities for affordable solar system exploration, with great promise for heliophysics, planetary science, and astrophysics. Such missions could be modularized to reach different destinations with different sets of instruments. Benefiting from this progress, we present the "Sundiver" concept, offering novel possibilities for the science community. We discuss some of the key technologies, the current design of the Sundiver sailcraft vehicle and innovative instruments, along with unique science opportunities that these technologies enable, especially as this exploration paradigm evolves. We formulate policy recommendations to allow national space agencies, industry, and other stakeholders to establish a strong scientific, programmatic, and commercial focus, enrich and deepen the space enterprise and broaden its advocacy base by including the Sundiver paradigm as a part of broader space exploration efforts., Comment: 35 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables

Solaris is a transformative Solar Polar Discovery-class mission concept to address crucial outstanding questions that can only be answered from a polar vantage. Solaris will image the Sun's poles from ~75 degree latitude, providing new insight into the workings of the solar dynamo and the solar cycle, which are at the foundation of our understanding of space weather and space climate. Solaris will also provide enabling observations for improved space weather research, modeling and prediction, revealing a unique, new view of the corona, coronal dynamics and CME eruptions from above., Comment: This White Paper was submitted in 2022 to the United States National Academies Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) Decadal Survey

Despite investments in multiple space and ground-based solar observatories by the global community, the Sun's polar regions remain unchartered territory - the last great frontier for solar observations. Breaching this frontier is fundamental to understanding the solar cycle - the ultimate driver of short-to-long term solar activity that encompasses space weather and space climate. Magnetohydrodynamic dynamo models and empirically observed relationships have established that the polar field is the primary determinant of the future solar cycle amplitude. Models of solar surface evolution of tilted active regions indicate that the mid to high latitude surges of magnetic flux govern dynamics leading to the reversal and build-up of polar fields. Our theoretical understanding and numerical models of this high latitude magnetic field dynamics and plasma flows - that are a critical component of the sunspot cycle - lack precise observational constraints. This limitation compromises our ability to observe the enigmatic kilo Gauss polar flux patches and constrain the polar field distribution at high latitudes. The lack of these observations handicap our understanding of how high latitude magnetic fields power polar jets, plumes, and the fast solar wind that extend to the boundaries of the heliosphere and modulate solar open flux and cosmic ray flux within the solar system. Accurate observation of the Sun's polar regions, therefore, is the single most outstanding challenge that confronts Heliophysics. This paper argues the scientific case for novel out of ecliptic observations of the Sun's polar regions, in conjunction with existing, or future multi-vantage point heliospheric observatories. Such a mission concept can revolutionize the field of Heliophysics like no other mission concept has - with relevance that transcends spatial regimes from the solar interior to the heliosphere., Comment: This White Paper was submitted in 2022 to the United States National Academies Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) Decadal Survey

We present a new method of removing PSF artifacts and improving the resolution of multidimensional data sources including imagers and spectrographs. Rather than deconvolution, which is translationally invariant, this method is based on sparse matrix solvers. This allows it to be applied to spatially varying PSFs and also to combining observations from instruments with radically different spatial, spectral, or thermal response functions (e.g., SDO/AIA and RHESSI). It was developed to correct PSF artifacts in Solar Orbiter SPICE, so the motivation, presentation of the method, and the results revolve around that application. However, it can also be used as a more robust (e.g., WRT a varying PSFs) alternative to deconvolution of 2D image data and similar problems, and is relevant to more general linear inversion problems., Comment: 27 pages, 14 figures. Submitted to Astronomy & Astrophysics special issue. This first replacement version switches to A&A style and adds a funding acknowledgement

A mission to view the solar poles from high helio-latitudes (above 60$^\circ$) will build on the experience of Solar Orbiter as well as a long heritage of successful solar missions and instrumentation (e.g. SOHO \cite{SOHO}, STEREO \cite{stereo}, Hinode \cite{Hinode}, SDO \cite{SDO}), but will focus for the first time on the solar poles, enabling scientific investigations that cannot be done by any other mission. One of the major mysteries of the Sun is the solar cycle. The activity cycle of the Sun drives the structure and behaviour of the heliosphere and is, of course, the driver of space weather. In addition, solar activity and variability provides fluctuating input into the Earth climate models, and these same physical processes are applicable to stellar systems hosting exoplanets. One of the main obstructions to understanding the solar cycle, and hence all solar activity, is our current lack of understanding of the polar regions. In this White Paper, submitted to the European Space Agency in response to the Voyage 2050 call, we describe a mission concept that aims to address this fundamental issue. In parallel, we recognise that viewing the Sun from above the polar regions enables further scientific advantages, beyond those related to the solar cycle, such as unique and powerful studies of coronal mass ejection processes, from a global perspective, and studies of coronal structure and activity in polar regions. Not only will these provide important scientific advances for fundamental stellar physics research, they will feed into our understanding of impacts on the Earth and other planets' space environment., Comment: 29 pages, 9 figures, White paper for ESA Voyage 2050

The Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD), onboard the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover Curiosity, has been measuring the energetic charged and neutral particles and the radiation dose rate on the surface of Mars since the landing of the rover in August 2012. In contrast to charged particles, neutral particles (neutrons and gamma-rays) are measured indirectly: the energy deposition spectra produced by neutral particles are complex convolutions of the incident particle spectra with the detector response functions. An inversion technique has been developed and applied to jointly unfold the deposited energy spectra measured in two scintillators of different types (CsI for high gamma detection efficiency, and plastic for neutrons) to obtain the neutron and gamma-ray spectra. This result is important for determining the biological impact of the Martian surface radiation contributed by neutrons, which interact with materials differently from the charged particles. These first in-situ measurements on Mars provide (1) an important reference for assessing the radiation-associated health risks for future manned missions to the red planet and (2) an experimental input for validating the particle transport codes used to model the radiation environments within spacecraft or on the surface of planets. Here we present neutral particle spectra as well as the corresponding dose and dose equivalent rates derived from RAD measurement during a period (November 15, 2015 to January 15, 2016) for which the surface particle spectra have been simulated via different transport models.

Space radiation is a major risk for humans, especially on long-duration missions to outer space, e.g., a manned mission to Mars. Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) contribute a predictable radiation background, the main risk is due to the highly variable and currently unpredictable flux of solar energetic particles (SEPs). Such sporadic SEP events may induce acute health effects and are thus considered a critical mission risk for future human exploration of Mars. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to study, model, and predict the surface radiation environment during such events. It is well known that the deep-space SEP differential energy spectrum at high energies is often given by a power law. We use a measurement-validated particle transport code to show that, for large SEP events with proton energy extending above ~ 500 MeV with a power-law distribution, it is sufficient to measure the SEP flux at a pivot energy of ~ 300 MeV above the Martian atmosphere to predict the dose rate on the Martian surface. In conjunction with a validation by in-situ measurements from the Martian surface, this remarkable simplification and elegant quantification could enable instant predictions of the radiation environment on the surface of Mars upon the onset of large SEP events.

Forbush decreases (FDs), which are short-term drops in the flux of galactic cosmic rays, are caused by the shielding from strong and/or turbulent magnetic structures in the solar wind, especially interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and their associated shocks, as well as corotating interaction regions. Such events can be observed at Earth, for example, using neutron monitors, and also at many other locations in the solar system, such as on the surface of Mars with the Radiation Assessment Detector instrument onboard Mars Science Laboratory. They are often used as a proxy for detecting the arrival of ICMEs or corotating interaction regions, especially when sufficient in situ solar wind measurements are not available. We compare the properties of FDs observed at Earth and Mars, focusing on events produced by ICMEs. We find that FDs at both locations show a correlation between their total amplitude and the maximum hourly decrease, but with different proportionality factors. We explain this difference using theoretical modeling approaches and suggest that it is related to the size increase of ICMEs, and in particular their sheath regions, en route from Earth to Mars. From the FD data, we can derive the sheath broadening factor to be between about 1.5 and 1.9, agreeing with our theoretical considerations. This factor is also in line with previous measurements of the sheath evolution closer to the Sun.

The Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) instrument onboard the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission's Curiosity rover has been measuring galactic cosmic rays (GCR) as well as solar energetic particles (SEP) on the surface of Mars for more than 6 years since its landing in August 2012. The observations include a large number of Forbush decreases (FD) caused by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and/or their associated shocks shielding away part of the GCR particles with their turbulent and enhanced magnetic fields while passing Mars. This study combines MSL/RAD FD measurements and remote tracking of ICMEs using the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) Heliospheric Imager (HI) telescopes in a statistical study for the first time. The large data set collected by HI makes it possible to analyze 149 ICMEs propagating toward MSL both during its 8-month cruise phase and after its landing on Mars. We link 45 of the events observed at STEREO-HI to their corresponding FDs at MSL/RAD and study the accuracy of the ICME arrival time at Mars predicted from HI data using different methods. The mean differences between the predicted arrival times and those observed using FDs range from -11 to 5 hr for the different methods, with standard deviations between 17 and 20 hr. These values for predictions at Mars are very similar compared to other locations closer to the Sun and also comparable to the precision of some other modeling approaches.

We explore new opportunities for solar physics that could be realized by future missions providing sustained observations from vantage points away from the Sun-Earth line. These include observations from the far side of the Sun, at high latitudes including over the solar poles, or from near-quadrature angles relative to the Earth (e.g., the Sun-Earth L4 and L5 Lagrangian points). Such observations fill known holes in our scientific understanding of the three-dimensional, time-evolving Sun and heliosphere, and have the potential to open new frontiers through discoveries enabled by novel viewpoints.

On 2017-09-10, solar energetic particles (SEPs) originating from the active region 12673 were registered as a ground level enhancement (GLE) at Earth and the biggest GLE on the surface of Mars as observed by the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) since the landing of the Curiosity rover in August 2012. Based on multi-point coronagraph images, we identify the initial 3D kinematics of an extremely fast CME and its shock front as well as another 2 CMEs launched hours earlier (with moderate speeds) using the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model. These three CMEs interacted as they propagated outwards into the heliosphere and merged into a complex interplanetary CME (ICME). The arrival of the shock and ICME at Mars caused a very significant Forbush Decrease (FD) seen by RAD only a few hours later than that at Earth which is about 0.5 AU closer to the Sun. We investigate the propagation of the three CMEs and the consequent ICME together with the shock using the Drag Based Model (DBM) and the WSA-ENLIL plus cone model constrained by the in-situ SEP and FD/shock onset timing. The synergistic modeling of the ICME and SEP arrivals at Earth and Mars suggests that in order to better predict potentially hazardous space weather impacts at Earth and other heliospheric locations for human exploration missions, it is essential to analyze 1) the CME kinematics, especially during their interactions and 2) the spatially and temporally varying heliospheric conditions, such as the evolution and propagation of the stream interaction regions.

The propagation of 15 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from Earth's orbit (1 AU) to Mars (~ 1.5 AU) has been studied with their propagation speed estimated from both measurements and simulations. The enhancement of magnetic fields related to ICMEs and their shock fronts cause the so-called Forbush decrease, which can be de- tected as a reduction of galactic cosmic rays measured on-ground. We have used galactic cosmic ray (GCR) data from in-situ measurements at Earth, from both STEREO A and B as well as GCR measurements by the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) instrument onboard Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) on the surface of Mars. A set of ICME events has been selected during the periods when Earth (or STEREO A or B) and Mars locations were nearly aligned on the same side of the Sun in the ecliptic plane (so-called opposition phase). Such lineups allow us to estimate the ICMEs' transit times between 1 and 1.5 AU by estimating the delay time of the corresponding Forbush decreases measured at each location. We investigate the evolution of their propagation speeds before and after passing Earth's orbit and find that the deceleration of ICMEs due to their interaction with the ambient solar wind may continue beyond 1 AU. We also find a substantial variance of the speed evolution among different events revealing the dynamic and diverse nature of eruptive solar events. Furthermore, the results are compared to simulation data obtained from two CME propagation models, namely the Drag-Based Model and ENLIL plus cone model.

The energetic particle environment on the Martian surface is influenced by solar and heliospheric modulation and changes in the local atmospheric pressure (or column depth). The Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) on board the Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity on the surface of Mars has been measuring this effect for over four Earth years (about two Martian years). The anticorrelation between the recorded surface Galactic Cosmic Ray-induced dose rates and pressure changes has been investigated by Rafkin et al. (2014) and the long-term solar modulation has also been empirically analyzed and modeled by Guo et al. (2015). This paper employs the newly updated HZETRN2015 code to model the Martian atmospheric shielding effect on the accumulated dose rates and the change of this effect under different solar modulation and atmospheric conditions. The modeled results are compared with the most up-to-date (from 14 August 2012 to 29 June 2016) observations of the RAD instrument on the surface of Mars. Both model and measurements agree reasonably well and show the atmospheric shielding effect under weak solar modulation conditions and the decline of this effect as solar modulation becomes stronger. This result is important for better risk estimations of future human explorations to Mars under different heliospheric and Martian atmospheric conditions.

The Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD), on board Mars Science Laboratory's (MSL) Curiosity rover, has been measuring ground level particle fluxes along with the radiation dose rate at the surface of Mars since August 2012. Similar to neutron monitors at Earth, RAD sees many Forbush decreases (FDs) in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) induced surface fluxes and dose rates. These FDs are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and/or stream/corotating interaction regions (SIRs/CIRs). Orbiting above the Martian atmosphere, the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft has also been monitoring space weather conditions at Mars since September 2014. The penetrating particle flux channels in the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) instrument onboard MAVEN can also be employed to detect FDs. For the first time, we study the statistics and properties of a list of FDs observed in-situ at Mars, seen both on the surface by MSL/RAD and in orbit detected by the MAVEN/SEP instrument. Such a list of FDs can be used for studying interplanetary CME (ICME) propagation and SIR evolution through the inner heliosphere. The magnitudes of different FDs can be well-fitted by a power-law distribution. The systematic difference between the magnitudes of the FDs within and outside the Martian atmosphere may be mostly attributed to the energy-dependent modulation of the GCR particles by both the pass-by ICMEs/SIRs and the Martian atmosphere.

The Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD), on board Mars Science Laboratory's (MSL) rover Curiosity, measures the {energy spectra} of both energetic charged and neutral particles along with the radiation dose rate at the surface of Mars. With these first-ever measurements on the Martian surface, RAD observed several effects influencing the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) induced surface radiation dose concurrently: [a] short-term diurnal variations of the Martian atmospheric pressure caused by daily thermal tides, [b] long-term seasonal pressure changes in the Martian atmosphere, and [c] the modulation of the primary GCR flux by the heliospheric magnetic field, which correlates with long-term solar activity and the rotation of the Sun. The RAD surface dose measurements, along with the surface pressure data and the solar modulation factor, are analysed and fitted to empirical models which quantitatively demonstrate} how the long-term influences ([b] and [c]) are related to the measured dose rates. {Correspondingly we can estimate dose rate and dose equivalents under different solar modulations and different atmospheric conditions, thus allowing empirical predictions of the Martian surface radiation environment.

Aims: To predict the cruise radiation environment related to future human missions to Mars, the correlation between solar modulation potential and the dose rate measured by the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) has been analyzed and empirical models have been employed to quantify this correlation. Methods: The instrument RAD, onboard Mars Science Laboratory's (MSL) rover Curiosity, measures a broad spectrum of energetic particles along with the radiation dose rate during the 253-day cruise phase as well as on the surface of Mars. With these first ever measurements inside a spacecraft from Earth to Mars, RAD observed the impulsive enhancement of dose rate during solar particle events as well as a gradual evolution of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) induced radiation dose rate due to the modulation of the primary GCR flux by the solar magnetic field, which correlates with long-term solar activities and heliospheric rotation. Results: We analyzed the dependence of the dose rate measured by RAD on solar modulation potentials and estimated the dose rate and dose equivalent under different solar modulation conditions. These estimations help us to have approximate predictions of the cruise radiation environment, such as the accumulated dose equivalent associated with future human missions to Mars. Conclusions: The predicted dose equivalent rate during solar maximum conditions could be as low as one-fourth of the current RAD cruise measurement. However, future measurements during solar maximum and minimum periods are essential to validate our estimations., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures

Identifying the two physical mechanisms behind the production and sustenance of the quiescent solar corona and solar wind poses two of the outstanding problems in solar physics today. We present analysis of spectroscopic observations from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory that are consistent with a single physical mechanism being responsible for a significant portion of the heat supplied to the lower solar corona and the initial acceleration of the solar wind; the ubiquitous action of magnetoconvection-driven reprocessing and exchange reconnection of the Sun's magnetic field on the supergranular scale. We deduce that while the net magnetic flux on the scale of a supergranule controls the injection rate of mass and energy into the transition region plasma it is the global magnetic topology of the plasma that dictates whether the released ejecta provides thermal input to the quiet solar corona or becomes a tributary that feeds the solar wind., Comment: 34 pages, 13 figures - In press Astrophysical Journal (Jan 1 2007)