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1. Insights on the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty

Author

Seroussi, Hélène, primary, Verjans, Vincent, additional, Nowicki, Sophie, additional, Payne, Antony J., additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Abe Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Agosta, Cécile, additional, Albrecht, Torsten, additional, Asay-Davis, Xylar, additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Calov, Reinhard, additional, Cullather, Richard, additional, Dumas, Christophe, additional, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K., additional, Gladstone, Rupert, additional, Golledge, Nicholas R., additional, Gregory, Jonathan M., additional, Greve, Ralf, additional, Hatterman, Tore, additional, Hoffman, Matthew J., additional, Humbert, Angelika, additional, Huybrechts, Philippe, additional, Jourdain, Nicolas C., additional, Kleiner, Thomas, additional, Larour, Eric, additional, Leguy, Gunter R., additional, Lowry, Daniel P., additional, Little, Chistopher M., additional, Morlighem, Mathieu, additional, Pattyn, Frank, additional, Pelle, Tyler, additional, Price, Stephen F., additional, Quiquet, Aurélien, additional, Reese, Ronja, additional, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Smith, Robin S., additional, Straneo, Fiametta, additional, Sun, Sainan, additional, Trusel, Luke D., additional, Van Breedam, Jonas, additional, Van Katwyk, Peter, additional, van de Wal, Roderik S. W., additional, Winkelmann, Ricarda, additional, Zhao, Chen, additional, Zhang, Tong, additional, and Zwinger, Thomas, additional

Published
2023
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2. Insights on the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty.

Author

Seroussi, Hélène, Verjans, Vincent, Nowicki, Sophie, Payne, Antony J., Goelzer, Heiko, Lipscomb, William H., Ouchi, Ayako Abe, Agosta, Cécile, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Barthel, Alice, Calov, Reinhard, Cullather, Richard, Dumas, Christophe, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K., Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, and Hatterman, Tore

Abstract

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from -5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to 5 changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52% of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14% for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56% for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13% of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet, but varies between 4% for Thwaites glacier and 53% for Whillans ice stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice-climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22% of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale, but reaches 36 and 39% for Institute ice stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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3. The Southern Ocean Freshwater release model experiments Initiative (SOFIA): Scientific objectives and experimental design.

Author

Swart, Neil, Martin, Torge, Beadling, Rebecca, Chen, Jia-Jia, England, Mathew H., Farneti, Riccardo, Griffies, Stephen M., Hatterman, Tore, Haumann, F. Alexander, Li, Qian, Marshall, John, Muilwijk, Morven, Pauling, Andrew G., Purich, Ariaan, Smith, Inga J., and Thomas, Max

Subjects
MELTWATER, SEA ice, ICE shelves, FRESH water, GLOBAL warming, ICE sheets, CLIMATE change, ANTARCTIC ice
Abstract

As the climate warms, the grounded ice sheet and floating ice shelves surrounding Antarctica are losing mass at an increasing rate and injecting the resulting meltwater into the Southern Ocean. This freshwater input could feed back onto climate change, particularly since the Southern Ocean is a key contributor to global heat and carbon uptake. Nonetheless, almost all existing coupled climate models have fixed ice sheets, and lack the physics required to represent the dominant sources of Antarctic melt. These missing ice dynamics represent a key uncertainty that is unaccounted for in current global climate change projections. Previous studies have inserted additional Antarctic meltwater into models, demonstrating that it can alter Southern Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice, as well as influence remote atmospheric circulation, tropical precipitation, and global temperature. However, these previous studies have used widely varying rates of freshwater forcing, been conducted using different climate models and configurations, and have reached differing conclusions on the magnitude of meltwater-climate feedbacks. The Southern Ocean Freshwater release model experiments InitiAtive (SOFIA) brings together a team of scientists to quantify the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater input. In this paper, we summarize the state of knowledge on meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves to the Southern Ocean and explain the scientific objectives of our initiative. We propose a series of coupled and ocean/sea-ice model experiments, including idealized meltwater experiments, historical experiments with observationally consistent meltwater input, and future scenarios driven by meltwater inputs derived from stand-alone ice sheet models. Through coordinating a multi-model ensemble of simulations, with data housed in a common archive, SOFIA will be able to produce a consistent estimate of the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater, as well as the uncertainty of this response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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4. ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Author

Seroussi, Helene, Nowicki, Sophie, Payne, Antony J., Goelzer, Heiko, Lipscomb, William H., Abe Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cecile, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Barthel, Alice, Calov, Reinhard, Cullather, Richard, Dumas, Christophe, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas, Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hatterman, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Larour, Eric, Leguy, Gunter R., Lowry, Daniel P., Little, Chistopher M., Morlighem, Mathieu, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Trusel, Luke D., Breedam, Jonas, Wal, Roderik S. W., Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, and Zwinger, Thomas

Abstract

Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and inform on the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimated the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes and the forcings employed. This study presents results from 18 simulations from 15 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100, forced with different scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) representative of the spread in climate model results. The contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). The evolution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss up to 21.0 cm SLE in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.5 and 16.5 cm SLE, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional mass loss of 8 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 AOGCMs show an overall mass loss of 10 mm SLE compared to simulations done under present-day conditions, with limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Published
2020
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5. ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21<sup>st</sup> century

Author

Seroussi, Helene, primary, Nowicki, Sophie, additional, Payne, Antony J., additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Abe Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Agosta, Cecile, additional, Albrecht, Torsten, additional, Asay-Davis, Xylar, additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Calov, Reinhard, additional, Cullather, Richard, additional, Dumas, Christophe, additional, Gladstone, Rupert, additional, Golledge, Nicholas, additional, Gregory, Jonathan M., additional, Greve, Ralf, additional, Hatterman, Tore, additional, Hoffman, Matthew J., additional, Humbert, Angelika, additional, Huybrechts, Philippe, additional, Jourdain, Nicolas C., additional, Kleiner, Thomas, additional, Larour, Eric, additional, Leguy, Gunter R., additional, Lowry, Daniel P., additional, Little, Chistopher M., additional, Morlighem, Mathieu, additional, Pattyn, Frank, additional, Pelle, Tyler, additional, Price, Stephen F., additional, Quiquet, Aurélien, additional, Reese, Ronja, additional, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Smith, Robin S., additional, Straneo, Fiammetta, additional, Sun, Sainan, additional, Trusel, Luke D., additional, Van Breedam, Jonas, additional, van de Wal, Roderik S. W., additional, Winkelmann, Ricarda, additional, Zhao, Chen, additional, Zhang, Tong, additional, and Zwinger, Thomas, additional

Published
2020
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6. Experimental protocol for sealevel projections from ISMIP6 standalone ice sheet models

Author

Nowicki, Sophie, primary, Payne, Antony J., additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Seroussi, Helene, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Agosta, Cecile, additional, Alexander, Patrick, additional, Asay-Davis, Xylar S., additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., additional, Cullather, Richard, additional, Felikson, Denis, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Gregory, Jonathan, additional, Hatterman, Tore, additional, Jourdain, Nicolas C., additional, Kuipers Munneke, Peter, additional, Larour, Eric, additional, Little, Christopher M., additional, Morlinghem, Mathieu, additional, Nias, Isabel, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Slater, Donald, additional, Smith, Robin, additional, Straneo, Fiammetta, additional, Trusel, Luke D., additional, van den Broeke, Michiel R., additional, and van de Wal, Roderik, additional

Published
2020
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