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30 results on '"Hauer, Mathew E."'

4. Mixed-Effects Negative Binomial Regression with Interval Censoring: A Simulation Study and Application to Aridity and All-Cause Mortality Among Black South Africans Over 1997–2013

Author

Landon, Christian M., Lyles, Robert H., Scovronick, Noah C., Abadi, Azar M., Bilotta, Rocky, Hauer, Mathew E., Bell, Jesse E., Gribble, Matthew O., Chen, (Din) Ding-Geng, Series Editor, Bekker, Andriëtte, Editorial Board Member, Coelho, Carlos A., Editorial Board Member, Finkelstein, Maxim, Editorial Board Member, Wilson, Jeffrey R., Editorial Board Member, and Zhao, Yichuan, editor

Published
2021
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14. Assessing population exposure to coastal flooding due to sea level rise

Author

Hauer, Mathew E.; Hardy, Dean; Kulp, Scott A.; Mueller, Valerie; Wrathall, David J.; Clark, Peter U., http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1246-2141 Mueller, Valerie, Hauer, Mathew E.; Hardy, Dean; Kulp, Scott A.; Mueller, Valerie; Wrathall, David J.; Clark, Peter U., and http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1246-2141 Mueller, Valerie

Abstract

PR, IFPRI3; ISI, DSGD, The exposure of populations to sea-level rise (SLR) is a leading indicator assessing the impact of future climate change on coastal regions. SLR exposes coastal populations to a spectrum of impacts with broad spatial and temporal heterogeneity, but exposure assessments often narrowly define the spatial zone of flooding. Here we show how choice of zone results in differential exposure estimates across space and time. Further, we apply a spatio-temporal flood-modeling approach that integrates across these spatial zones to assess the annual probability of population exposure. We apply our model to the coastal United States to demonstrate a more robust assessment of population exposure to flooding from SLR in any given year. Our results suggest that more explicit decisions regarding spatial zone (and associated temporal implication) will improve adaptation planning and policies by indicating the relative chance and magnitude of coastal populations to be affected by future SLR.

Published
2021

15. Sea-level rise and human migration

Author

Hauer, Mathew E.; Fussell, Elizabeth; Mueller, Valerie; Burkett, Maxine; Call, Maia; Abel, Kali; McLeman, Robert; Wrathall, David, http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1246-2141 Mueller, Valerie, Hauer, Mathew E.; Fussell, Elizabeth; Mueller, Valerie; Burkett, Maxine; Call, Maia; Abel, Kali; McLeman, Robert; Wrathall, David, and http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1246-2141 Mueller, Valerie

Abstract

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance, DSGD

Published
2020

19. Sea-level rise and human migration

Author

Hauer, Mathew E., primary, Fussell, Elizabeth, additional, Mueller, Valerie, additional, Burkett, Maxine, additional, Call, Maia, additional, Abel, Kali, additional, McLeman, Robert, additional, and Wrathall, David, additional

Published
2019
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20. Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway

Author

Hauer, Mathew E.

Subjects
Adult, Male, Statistics and Probability, Data Descriptor, Adolescent, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Leslie matrix, Library and Information Sciences, 01 natural sciences, Education, 03 medical and health sciences, Race (biology), Sociology, Age groups, Humans, Child, Socioeconomic status, Aged, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Aged, 80 and over, Socioeconomic scenarios, 0303 health sciences, Population Forecast, Age Factors, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Censuses, Middle Aged, Census, United States, Computer Science Applications, Projections of population growth, Geography, Socioeconomic Factors, Demographic change, Child, Preschool, Population projection, Female, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, Demography, Information Systems
Abstract

Small area and subnational population projections are important for understanding long-term demographic changes. I provide county-level population projections by age, sex, and race in five-year intervals for the period 2020–2100 for all U.S. counties. Using historic U.S. census data in temporally rectified county boundaries and race groups for the period 1990–2015, I calculate cohort-change ratios (CCRs) and cohort-change differences (CCDs) for eighteen five-year age groups (0–85+ ), two sex groups (Male and Female), and four race groups (White NH, Black NH, Other NH, Hispanic) for all U.S counties. I then project these CCRs/CCDs using ARIMA models as inputs into Leslie matrix population projection models and control the projections to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. I validate the methods using ex-post facto evaluations using data from 1969–2000 to project 2000–2015. My results are reasonably accurate for this period. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs for addressing questions involving sub-national demographic change in the United States. Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data (ISA-Tab format)

Published
2019
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24. Projections of social-inequalities due to sea level rise in the Continental United States.

Author

Saunders, R. Kyle and Hauer, Mathew E.

Subjects
SEA level, CRITICAL race theory, SOCIAL impact, EQUALITY, CLIMATE change, POPULATION forecasting
Abstract

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century and is likely to exacerbate social inequalities. Climate change impact studies typically focus on population totals or use current populations to discuss social inequalities of impacts. With the anticipated growth of minority groups in the United States, the potential inequalities that climate change is expected to exacerbate are still relatively undefined. Here, we use critical race theory coupled with detailed sociodemographic population projections to answer two primary research questions regarding social inequalities due to climate change impacts within the context of sea level rise. First, who is at the highest risk to SLR? Second, is climate change a new form of in- equality or is it simply a new avenue for current inequalities to continue to manifest? Our preliminary results suggest women, the elderly, and communities of color will likely account for most sea level rise displacement, in the absence of protective measures. Sea level rise is not simply a new avenue for current inequalities, but the magnitude of these inequalities suggest it could be considered a new form of inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019

28. Bayesian estimation of total fertility from a population's age-sex structure.

Author

Schmertmann, Carl P. and Hauer, Mathew E.

Subjects
*DEMOGRAPHIC surveys, *FERTILITY, *CHILD mortality, *DISTRIBUTION (Probability theory), *AGE distribution, *INDIGENOUS peoples
Abstract

We investigate a modern statistical approach to a classic deterministic demographic estimation technique. When vital event registration is missing or inadequate, it is possible to approximate a population's total fertility rate (TFR) from information about its distribution by age and sex. For example, if under-five child mortality is low then TFR is often close to seven times the child/woman ratio (CWR), the number of 0-4 year olds per 15-49-year-old woman. We analyse the formal relationship between CWR and TFR to identify sources of uncertainty in indirect estimates. We construct a Bayesian model for the statistical distribution of TFR conditional on the population's age-sex structure, in which unknown demographic quantities in the standard approximation are parameters with prior distributions. We apply the model in two case studies: to a small indigenous population in the Amazon region of Brazil that has extremely high fertility rates, and to the set of 159 counties in the US state of Georgia. A statistical approach yields important insights into the sources of error in indirect estimation, and their relative magnitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019
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30. The Suburbanization of Food Insecurity: An Analysis of Projected Trends in the Atlanta Metropolitan Area.

Author

Shannon, Jerry, Hauer, Mathew E., Weaver, Alexis, and Shannon, Sarah

Subjects
*FOOD security, *SUBURBANIZATION, *SOCIOECONOMICS, *POVERTY
Abstract

Although general patterns of food insecurity in the United States are known, few studies have attempted to estimate small area food security or account for ongoing socioeconomic changes. Here we address these issues by producing small area estimates of food insecurity in the Atlanta metropolitan area using two methodologies: fixed effects modeling and demographic metabolism. In both cases, we use county-level data from the Current Population Survey to determine the association between food insecurity and demographic predictors. These associations are then applied to tract-level data from the 2009 to 2013 American Community Survey and projected data for 2020 to create small area estimates of food insecurity. We find broad consensus between our two methods. For both time periods, food insecurity is highest in southern sections of the city of Atlanta and its neighboring suburbs. Projections to 2020, however, show that food insecurity rates are projected to increase in outer-ring suburbs east and west of the city while decreasing in the urban core. These results highlight the need to further adapt antihunger efforts for often sprawling suburban communities, where poverty rates are increasing but spatial mismatch combined with poor transit access might hinder access to food assistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
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