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This study elaborates on the measures to improve preparedness for natural disasters by elucidating the present situation of preparedness for natural disasters at home in Japan as well as the effective factors to promote such preparedness. An Internet monitoring survey was conducted throughout Japan, and valid responses (n=1,599) were obtained. To measure preparedness for natural disasters at home, we used 31 items, including the ones in the "public opinion poll on disaster management" conducted by the Cabinet Office, Government of Japan. The Internet monitoring survey revealed that approximately 30% of the respondents arranged for articles they may require in the event of a disaster and had contemplated their evacuation actions immediately after a disaster. The Internet monitoring survey results were compared with the results of the Cabinet Office, Government of Japan's public opinion poll. It revealed that the internet monitoring survey results better represent the tendency of the Japanese people as a whole. A multiple regression analysis was conducted to determine six independent variables—age, marital status, prior disaster experience, awareness of hazard maps, disaster imminence, and communal exchanges—statistically significant as effective factors to improve preparedness for natural disasters at home. Particularly, considering a large standardizing coefficient (β) for awareness of hazard maps, it is proposed that the most effective measure to improve preparedness for natural disasters at home to comprehend the risks posed to one's community and own house is by using the opportunities of disaster prevention education and drill rather than simply viewing the hazard maps aimlessly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing magnitude of monetary and life losses caused by urban floods worldwide has sparked a deeper interest among researchers in comprehending these phenomena. Accurate modeling and forecasting of floods play a pivotal role in developing effective strategies for flood damage mitigation and management, thereby reducing associated hazards. A critical concern in this endeavor is optimizing the trade-off between computation time and accuracy when simulating real-time flood events. This paper aims to establish the superiority of the sub-grid approach in achieving accurate simulation results of real-time flood events within minimal computational time. By conducting simulations of one experimental test and two real-world flood events using the HEC-RAS flow simulation model, we demonstrate that the sub-grid approach significantly reduces computation time by approximately 90% while faithfully capturing the dynamics of urban flood. In contrast, the non-sub-grid approach often over-predicts flow dynamics in urban areas and fails to effectively trace building footprints, resulting in unrealistic flow patterns and under or overstating the hazard maps. In a nutshell, the sub-grid hydraulic modeling approach enables better hazard analysis and mapping. The outcomes of this research provide valuable guidance to modelers and authorities, suggesting the adoption of the sub-grid approach for accurate and reliable real-time urban flood modeling, inundation forecasting, and hazard zoning in the context of urban flood hazard analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last 60 years, six landslides with volumes from 105 m3 to 5.3 × 107 m3 have occurred around Qwelqwelústen (Mount Meager Volcanic Complex; MMVC), southwestern British Columbia, Canada. The dormant volcanic massif has experienced significant uplift leading to exposed and incised Miocene and older basement rocks and volcanic rocks associated with the MMVC. The topographic relief and variation in rock types creates a complex environment where the interplay between lithology and landslide initiation can be captured. We developed models using logistic regression and random forest methods to assess the most critical parameters affecting inter-eruptive landslide susceptibility in the area. Both approaches indicate that Devastator Peak and Plinth Peak volcanic assemblages are of notably higher landslide susceptibility. Large landslides originated in higher areas, but long runout poses the main hazard. Results support the need for detailed geological mapping for landslide susceptibility assessments in elevated volcanic massifs worldwide.

Several ground fissures have developed in the east and southeast of Semnan city, posing a serious threat to vital infrastructure, such as roads, railways, and pipelines. This study was undertaken to assess the mechanism of earth fissuring and to prepare hazard and risk maps as guidelines for decision-makers in environmental management. The research involved various stages, including a desk study, site investigation, laboratory tests, and engineering assessment of the results from the previous stages, leading to the preparation of maps. Laboratory test results indicated that most parts of the area are covered with silty soils, and their collapse potential (Ic) values varied from 15.4 to 27.4%, indicating a severe collapse potential. Results from Crumb, pinhole, and double hydrometer tests revealed that much of the collapsible loess also has a moderate dispersion potential. In conclusion, the presence of problematic soils with high erosion potential, coupled with the accumulation of surface water due to the construction of roads and railways with limited culverts, leads to tunnel erosion. This phenomenon is proposed as the main reason for earth fissuring in the area. The hazard map, based on the proposed model, identifies a heart-shaped area in the southeast of Semnan city with very high susceptibility to earth fissuring. The risk map categorizes four areas, including the region between the railway and gas pipeline to the east of Semnan city, the southern part of Semnan airport, Ala village, and the garrison to the south of the plain, as falling into the high-risk category, necessitating monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is one of the main natural hazards affecting large areas' economies and the environment. Therefore, it is necessary to study the different aspects of the drought on the land with several indices like the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) index which can clarify the existing conditions for decisions and planning. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial pattern of drought by SPI index in the Fars Province located in the Southern part of Iran. In this paper, according to the data from 42 stations in Fars Province, during 1990-2019, the pattern of drought hazard is evaluated. In the presented model, several drought hazard criteria were used including the maximum severity of drought in the period, the trend of drought, and the maximum number of sequential arid years. The final drought risk map was obtained with an arithmetic mean of 3 criteria: intensity, continuity, and trend. The three criteria maps and final hazard map were interpolated by the Inverse Distance Weightage (IDW) method and classified into five hazard classes none, slight, moderate, severe, and very severe. The obtained maps showed that the intensity, trend, and continuity of drought increases from the southeast to the northwest. The final vulnerability map shows that moderate hazard areas (36% of the region) observed in the Southern parts of the region are less widespread than areas under severe and very severe hazard (64% of the region) observed in the northern and central parts of the region. Preparation of these hazard maps may prove to be helpful for regional managers, and policymakers for environmental and agricultural strategies, not only in Iran but also in other countries facing this hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effect of the recognition of various disaster scenarios on the disaster management behavior of people. It analyzes the data (n = 1,900) of the social surveys, conducted by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED) in seven districts of Japan (Hokkaido/Tohoku, Kanto, Chubu, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu). The study indicates that the experience of victims, recognition of earthquake occurrence in the region and of earthquake hazard maps, as well as the factors, "life threatening," "difficulties in daily life," and "induced disasters," in the disaster scenarios are related to their disaster management behavior. The greater their recognition of "life threatening" and "difficulties in daily life," the more people will adopt disaster management behaviors. This study suggests that, added to the experience of victims and the recognition of the occurrence of earthquakes and of hazard maps, the image of the damage through specific disaster scenarios affects people's disaster management behavior. On the other hand, it has become apparent that creating images of "induced disasters" that are caused by earthquakes, with their unclear association, may lead to psychological confusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A basic plan for evacuation in the case of Mt. Fuji eruption was formulated because the hazard map for Mt. Fuji eruption was revised. For the formulation of the evacuation plan, it was designed that evacuation to save lives is the top priority, and evacuation to protect livelihoods is also taken into consideration to the greatest extent possible. In order to eliminate the delay of evacuation by traffic jam, it was recommended for healthy persons to evacuate on foot rather than using their own cars. This rule is essential to confirm the safe evacuation for evacuee requiring special support by automobile. Timing of the evacuation was designed depending on the characteristics of the eruption phenomena, target group and the volcanic alert level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The IAVCEI Working Group on Hazard Mapping has been active since 2014 and has facilitated several activities to enable sharing of experiences of how volcanic hazard maps are developed and used around the world. One key activity was a global survey of 90 map makers and practitioners to collect data about official, published volcanic hazard maps and how they were developed. The survey asked questions about map content, design, and input data, as well as about the map development process and key lessons learned. Here we present the results of this global survey, which are then used to quantitatively describe and summarise current practices in volcanic hazard map development. We received entries related to 89 volcanic hazard maps (78% long-term/background maps and 22% short-term/crisis hazard maps), covering a total of 80 volcanoes across 28 countries. Although most maps captured in the survey are volcano-scale maps of stratovolcanoes that show similar types of content, such as primary hazard footprints or zones, they vary greatly in input data, communication style, format, appearance, scale, content, and visual design. This diversity stems from a range of factors, including differences in map purpose, the methodology used, the level of understanding of past eruptive history, the prevailing scientific and cartographic practice at the time, the state of volcanic activity, and variations in culture, national map standards and legal requirements. Experiences and lessons shared by our respondents can be divided into six main themes: map design considerations; the process of map development; map audience and map user needs; hazard assessment approach; map availability and accessibility; and external (e.g., political) influences. Insights shared included the importance of: visual design elements, map testing and evaluation, working with stakeholders and end users to improve a map’s efficacy and relevance, and considering possible unanticipated uses of hazard maps. These free-form text insights (i.e., responses to open-ended questions) from map makers and practitioners familiar with the maps lend depth and clarity to our results. They provide a rich complement to our more quantitative analysis of design elements and of approaches used to determine and delineate map zones. Results from our global survey of hazard map makers and practitioners, together with insights from other key initiatives of the Working Group on Hazard Mapping such as the Volcanic Hazard Maps Database (VHMD; https://volcanichazardmaps.org/ ), provide a snapshot of the wide variety of volcanic hazard maps generated over the past decades, and improve our understanding of the diversity across volcanic hazard mapping practices. These initiatives represent important steps towards fulfilling the aims of the Working Group, namely, to construct a framework for a classification scheme for volcanic hazard maps and to promote harmonized terminology, as well as to identify and categorise good practices and considerations for volcanic hazard mapping.

AbstractDespite their protracted periods of inactivity, long-dormant volcanoes may be highly hazardous, as their reactivation can be characterized by violent explosive eruptions. An example of such volcanoes is the Colli Albani caldera, onto which deposits Rome Capital City is built, Italy. Its last volcanic activity was characterized by voluminous maar-forming phreatomagmatic eruptions dated between 36 and 25ka, but the volcano has produced several maar lake overflows during the Holocene till historical times. Presently, Colli Albani is affected by recurrent seismic events, anomalous heat flow, ground uplifts, hydrothermal circulation and gas emissions. For these reasons, the Italian Civil Protection has recently listed Colli Albani among the ten active volcanoes of Italy, but products for the evaluation of its volcanic hazards lacking. This work presents the first study on vent opening susceptibility mapping at Colli Albani. We explore the potential of an available geological dataset for building, through geographic information system analysis, an index that classifies areas at different vents opening susceptibility (low, moderate and high). Such result highlights as a solid geological mapping is a prerequisite for the volcanic hazard assessment, especially in remote or poorly studied long-dormant volcanoes such as caldera systems where the location of new vents could occur in different volcano sectors.

Infrastructures in coastal areas are often prone to several hazards, and thus the elaboration of effective risk management plans in such zones are possible if all relevant threats are considered and analyzed. In this context, the assessment of the corrosion hazard attributable to airborne chlorides is of utmost importance since the resulting deterioration phenomena can heavily jeopardize both reliability and resilience of the infrastructures. Therefore, this contribution aims at proposing the preliminary version of a possible framework for the elaboration of corrosion hazard maps at regional scale for coastal areas, with focus on reinforced concrete bridges. The proposed approach encompasses three main steps. First, the relevant stock of infrastructures vulnerable to chloride‐induced corrosion is identified and quantified. This requires the collection of relevant features, such as construction type, position, and age. Environmental conditions are examined next, including data about sea waves and salinity, wind, temperature, humidity, rainfall, and chloride deposition rate. Finally, the corrosion hazard is estimated in probabilistic sense. The proposed methodology is presented together with the preliminary results obtained from a relevant case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering devastating events like the 2003 Bam earthquake (M_w~6.6), it is essential to develop up-to-date earthquake hazard maps to design structures in this area. In this study, a seismic catalog including historical and instrumental events was compiled and then 21 seismic sources were identified in Kerman province and its surrounding. Seismicity parameters were estimated for all 21 source zones and an attenuation relationship was selected to obtain local site effect-based seismic hazard maps. Finally, seismic hazard maps, which is one of the basic requirements of seismic design and seismic regulations, were presented in form of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) measures for the return period of 475 and 2475 years, and the high risk areas in Kerman Province were introduced. To investigate the depth of events on Iranian plateau, according to the studies conducted in this study, it is suggested to use only the data obtained from local seismic networks. The results were presented as seismic hazard maps for the parameters of maximum intensity of horizontal ground acceleration, taking into account construction effects with a probability of 2% and 10% over 50 years for all parts of Kerman province to provide all design needs according to 2800 regulations. Using the obtained maps, the earthquake parameter in the Iranian Seismic Code (Code 2800) can be updated. Results showed that, as expected, two areas in Kerman province are with the highest accelerations: The first is the Kuhbanan-Golbaf-Bam fault systems with a northwest-southeast trend and the second is the northeast termination of Zagros toward Makran. Both of these ranges are seismic and of great importance in seismic surveys. These areas include Kuhbanan-Golbaf-Bam fault systems and Jiroft-Kahnooj. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study is part of the context in which Romania adopted the European Parliament Directive 2007/60/EC on flood risk assessment and management. Therefore, the aim of this research is to assess the risk induced by a hydrological hazard, expressed by a financial value estimation, for the Turcu River in the northern sector of the Bran–Dragoslavele transcarpathian corridor (Romania), an important tourist axis where the pressure on land has increased considerably. As a result, the intra-village areas of Moieciu de Sus, Cheia, Moieciu de Jos, Bran and Tohanu Nou have also expanded into areas vulnerable to flooding. There are currently no studies on the areas potentially affected as well as the extent of the possible damage. For this reason, we proceeded to model the water level corresponding to the maximum flow value with a probability exceeding 1%, using HEC-RAS and ArcGIS software. The results of the implementation of the spatial analysis model resulted in the delineation of the floodplain and the assessment of the potential financial loss related to the minimum market value of the land with the related real estate infrastructures. The research reveals that in the 1% band area (78.7841 ha) with water depth > 0.5 m, more than 433 infrastructures are at high risk of flooding, most of them with high real estate value, i.e., 5.61 km of roads for which a cost of EUR 3,402,666.90 was calculated for restoration. A knowledge of financial vulnerability to flooding becomes important for the community; local authorities involved in making decisions for insuring real estate at risk and planning/managing investments work to prevent/combat the effects of flooding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to delimit potential rockfall propagation zones based on simulated 2 m resolution rockfall trajectories using Rockyfor3D for block volume scenarios ranging from 0.05–30 m3, with explicit inclusion of the barrier effect of standing trees, for an area of approx. 7200 km2 in Switzerland and Liechtenstein. For the determination of the start cells, as well as the slope surface characteristics, we used the terrain morphology derived from a 1 m resolution digital terrain model, as well as the topographic landscape model geodataset of swisstopo and information from geological maps. The forest structure was defined by individual trees with their coordinates, diameters, and tree type (coniferous or broadleaved). These were generated from detected individual trees combined with generated trees on the basis of statistical relationships between the detected trees, remote sensing-based forest structure type definitions, and stem numbers from field inventory data. From the simulated rockfall propagation zones we delimited rockfall hazard indication zones (HIZ), as called by the practitioners (because they serve as a basis for the Swiss hazard index map), on the basis of the simulated reach probability rasters. As validation, 1554 mapped past rockfall events were used. The results of the more than 89 billion simulated trajectories showed that 94% of the mapped silent witnesses could be reproduced by the simulations and at least 82% are included in the delimited HIZ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 1979, Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion) has erupted on average two times per year, with 95 % of these eruptions occurring within an uninhabited caldera. However, lava flows have occasionally impacted populated regions on the island, as in 1977 and 1986. Since 2014, an integrated satellite data–driven multinational response to effusive crises has been developed to rapidly assess lava inundation area and flow runout distance. In 2018, this protocol was implemented as a standalone software to provide a lava flow hazard map showing the probability of flow coverage and runouts as a function of discharge rate. Since 2019, the produced short-term hazard map is shared with local civil protection in the first few hours following the start of an eruption to aid in mitigation actions. Multiple exchanges between scientists, the observatory, and civil protection has improved the delivered hazard map, ensuring a common understanding, a product which is of use and usable, and helping to build effective mitigation strategies at Piton de la Fournaise. In this work we illustrate this effective near real-time protocol with case studies and document how the produced short-term hazard map has been tailored to meet the needs of civil protection.

Landslides and slope failures are often caused by earthquakes. This study proposes a method to map earthquake-induced slope failure hazards that uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and a geographic information system (GIS) for four districts where many slope failures were induced by earthquakes (the 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi, 2016 Kumamoto, 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku, and 2004 Mid Niigata Prefecture earthquakes). The assessment system, which was based on the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience landslide distribution maps, was analyzed using the methods of previously published. We considered the relationships between the earthquake-induced slope failure distributions and landslide hazard factors (elevation, slope angle, slope type, catchment degree, geology, and vegetation). These relationships were utilized for pairwise comparisons of the factors in the AHP analysis. The slope angle, slope type, and catchment degree exerted the highest effects on the slope failure distribution in the four districts. The four earthquake-induced slope failure distributions were highly consistent with the slope failure hazard rank. These results provide a practical method for evaluating earthquake-induced slope-failure hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is among the natural disasters that seriously impact the environment and human life. This study aims to explore the spatial pattern of drought using the percent of normal precipitation index (PNPI) in Fars Province, located in the Southern part of Iran. To this end, a drought risk model based on data from 42 stations in Fars province from 1990 to 2019 was evaluated. The model includes three criteria of maximum drought intensity in the period, drought trend, and a maximum number of consecutive dry years. The final drought risk map was obtained with an arithmetic mean of three indicators of intensity, continuity, and trend. The final hazard map and the 3-criteria map were interpolated by the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method and were classified into five risk classes: none, mild, moderate, severe, and very severe. The final vulnerability map shows that moderate hazard areas (5% of the region), which are observed in the Sothern parts of the region, are less widespread than areas under severe hazard (83% of the region), which are observed in almost all parts of the region. According to the final vulnerability map, about 94% of the area of Fars province is under severe and very severe conditions. Overall, this study, regarding its simplicity and considering different dimensions of drought, may be utilised as a basic framework to evaluate drought hazards for other locations worldwide. In this respect, it is necessary to study the multiple sights of this phenomenon for land use planning, resource management, and prevention of water and food crises. Therefore, this model can help users and administrations with executive initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aims to assess flood hazard in the Oued Laou basin. It is a catchment on the Mediterranean coast (Northern part of Morocco) potentially periled by flash floods and accelerated development of anthropogenic activities. In this study, two complementary methodologies were applied; the first one introduces a new topographic wetness index (TWI-Ks) that aims to identify flood prone-areas executed on the basin scale. Then were validated using sentinel-1 images. The second one is a two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic model applied on a locale scale (plain of Oued Laou), to describe and calculate the flood parameters and mapping flow indicators based on a high grid resolution (DTM) generated using Arial photogrammetry. The results highlight that the new approach of TWI-Ks model provides more reliable results than the classic TWI in terms of delineating areas at potential risk. Even though, both of them provide reliable susceptibility mapping. The analyses of the 200-year flood event simulated by 2D hydrodynamic HEC-RAS model, revealed that the flood inundation extent consequently affected almost all floodplain assets. Especially, crop fields and road N16, as tends to present danger even on buildings as a result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The southeastern coastal region of China frequently faces typhoon attacks, posing significant threats to its ever-growing infrastructure. Quantifying multiple typhoon-induced hazards in terms of wind, wave, and surge would provide valuable data to support structural design, risk assessments, and disaster mitigation. This study simulated the evolution of wave and surge driven by typhoon wind fields using the SWAN + ADCIRC coupling model, generating extreme samples of wind speed, significant wave height, and surge height. Trivariate joint probability distributions were established at six typical coastal stations (Hong Kong, Xiamen, Fuzhou, Wenzhou, Zhoushan, and Shanghai) based on optimal copula functions. Using the environmental contour and conditional return period methods, appropriate combinations of design environmental loads were analyzed for a specific return period. The results revealed two reasonable combination types for the 100-year design period. One involves the combination of the 100-year dominant variable value computed using a univariate probability distribution, with two 20-year secondary variable values calculated using the second conditional return period. The second combination selects a variable group corresponding to the maximum value of the dominant variable on the environmental surface. These methods and findings were further extended to the entire computational area to develop hazard maps covering the Southeast Sea area of China. The hazard maps show that the design values of significant wave height increase with distance from the coast. In contrast, the spatial distribution of surge presents the opposite pattern. This study provides a novel perspective on structural design values subjected to multiple disasters and offers a reference for offshore engineering construction in the sea area of southeast China. • Typhoon-induced multi-hazard maps along Southeast China are developed. • A database of typhoon-induced wind, wave and surge along Southeast China from 1987 to 2022 is developed. • Trivariate joint probability distribution of wind speed, significant wave height and surge height is analyzed. • Two combination methods of multiple environmental loads are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hazard maps are a critical component in determining the regional disease pressure for fusiform rust disease [caused by the fungal pathogen Cronartium quercuum (Berk.) Miyabe ex Shirai f. sp. fusiforme ], which is considered the most important disease of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) in the southeastern United States. Genetically improved fusiform rust resistant stock should be deployed in areas that are estimated to be at a high hazard for the disease, while stocks with lower resistance to the disease, but perhaps other favorable traits, can be deployed in areas with a lower estimated hazard. Current hazard maps are based on the historic presence of the disease but do not consider the effect of host genotype or climate which can influence the presence and distribution of fungal pathogens. Here, we aim to improve current hazard maps for fusiform rust by identifying, modeling, and predicting the relationship between the disease and yearly climate indicators. Different loblolly pine genotypes were tested: one family improved for resistance and non-improved checklots for each location. We found that, for the non-improved genotypes, location, potential evapotranspiration, consecutive cloud cover, diurnal temperature range, and a yearly available water indicator can explain 89.2 % of the deviance for disease occurrence. For the improved family, we found that longitude, yearly water deficit, yearly consecutive frost days, yearly consecutive cloud cover, and yearly diurnal temperature range explain 93.1 % deviance for disease incidence. We produce two rust hazard maps based on each model, illustrating the probability of the incidence of the disease. With this project, we pave the way for a better-informed determination of where and what loblolly pine resistant stock should be deployed to limit the damage and costs associated with the management of fusiform rust disease. • Fusiform rust is the most important disease in southeastern U.S. pine forests. • Current hazard maps neglect climate or host genotype for incidence estimates. • We identify potential spatial and climatic variables explaining the disease hazard. • We model and predict fusiform rust hazard for different host genotypes. • Our improved hazard maps explain up to 93.1 % of the deviance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study is part of the context in which Romania adopted the European Parliament Directive 2007/60/EC on flood risk assessment and management. Therefore, the aim of this research is to assess the risk induced by a hydrological hazard, expressed by a financial value estimation, for the Turcu River in the northern sector of the Bran–Dragoslavele transcarpathian corridor (Romania), an important tourist axis where the pressure on land has increased considerably. As a result, the intra-village areas of Moieciu de Sus, Cheia, Moieciu de Jos, Bran and Tohanu Nou have also expanded into areas vulnerable to flooding. There are currently no studies on the areas potentially affected as well as the extent of the possible damage. For this reason, we proceeded to model the water level corresponding to the maximum flow value with a probability exceeding 1%, using HEC-RAS and ArcGIS software. The results of the implementation of the spatial analysis model resulted in the delineation of the floodplain and the assessment of the potential financial loss related to the minimum market value of the land with the related real estate infrastructures. The research reveals that in the 1% band area (78.7841 ha) with water depth > 0.5 m, more than 433 infrastructures are at high risk of flooding, most of them with high real estate value, i.e., 5.61 km of roads for which a cost of EUR 3,402,666.90 was calculated for restoration. A knowledge of financial vulnerability to flooding becomes important for the community; local authorities involved in making decisions for insuring real estate at risk and planning/managing investments work to prevent/combat the effects of flooding.

The aim of this study was to delimit potential rockfall propagation zones based on simulated 2 m resolution rockfall trajectories using Rockyfor3D for block volume scenarios ranging from 0.05–30 m3, with explicit inclusion of the barrier effect of standing trees, for an area of approx. 7200 km2 in Switzerland and Liechtenstein. For the determination of the start cells, as well as the slope surface characteristics, we used the terrain morphology derived from a 1 m resolution digital terrain model, as well as the topographic landscape model geodataset of swisstopo and information from geological maps. The forest structure was defined by individual trees with their coordinates, diameters, and tree type (coniferous or broadleaved). These were generated from detected individual trees combined with generated trees on the basis of statistical relationships between the detected trees, remote sensing-based forest structure type definitions, and stem numbers from field inventory data. From the simulated rockfall propagation zones we delimited rockfall hazard indication zones (HIZ), as called by the practitioners (because they serve as a basis for the Swiss hazard index map), on the basis of the simulated reach probability rasters. As validation, 1554 mapped past rockfall events were used. The results of the more than 89 billion simulated trajectories showed that 94% of the mapped silent witnesses could be reproduced by the simulations and at least 82% are included in the delimited HIZ.

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Landslide is a natural disaster that occurs mostly in hill areas. Landslide hazard mapping is used to classify the prone areas to mitigate the risk of landslide hazards. This paper aims to compare spatial landslide prediction performance using an artificial neural network (ANN) model based on different data input configurations, different numbers of hidden neurons, and two types of normalization techniques on the data set of Penang Island, Malaysia. The data set involves twelve landslide influencing factors in which five factors are in continuous values, while the remaining seven are in categorical/discrete values. These factors are considered in three different configurations, i.e., original (OR), frequency ratio (FR), and mixed-type (MT) data, which act as an input to train the ANN model separately. A significant effect on the final output is the number of hidden neurons in the hidden layer. In addition, three data configurations are processed using two different normalization methods, i.e., mean-standard deviation (Mean-SD) and Min-Max. The landslide causative data often consist of correlated information caused by overlapping of input instances. Therefore, the principal component analysis (PCA) technique is used to eliminate the correlated information. The area under the receiver of characteristics (ROC) curve, i.e., AUC is also applied to verify the produced landslide hazard maps. The best result of AUC for both Mean-SD and Min-Max with PCA schemes are 96.72% and 96.38%, respectively. The results show that Mean-SD with PCA of MT data configuration yields the best validation accuracy, AUC, and lowest AIC at 100 number of hidden neurons. MT data configuration with the Mean-SD normalization and PCA scheme is more robust and stable in the MLP model's training for landslide prediction.

Chemical parks which hold large inventories of hazardous materials have become one important type of urban critical infrastructure. The hazardous chemical leakage such as toxic gas leakage has emerged in recent years, resulting in not only serious environmental pollution but also catastrophic consequences to certain urban areas. It is critical to make scientific risk assessment for such events to reduce negative effects. To address this issue, an integrated urban risk assessment (IURA) method coupling consequences of chemical leakage accidents and the vulnerability of local population is proposed in this work. The threat zones and hazard maps of toxic gas dispersion are present by using the ALOHA software. The population vulnerability is decided by three indicators including exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of residents in affected areas, the Grey Correlation-TOPSIS (GC-TOPSIS) method is used to rank the vulnerability of different regions. The ArcGIS software is applied to generate an integrated risk map through superimposing the hazard map and the population vulnerability map. The original risk matrix evaluation results were subdivided using the Borda count method. A case about an industrial city in Hubei, China is analyzed to test the method. Result shows the new integrated risk assessment method is more accurate and effective, which is beneficial for the government to develop emergency plans and enhance the safety of people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Objectives: Predicting the hydraulic behavior of the river in the face of possible floods is of particular importance to reduce the risk and damage to urban areas, facilities under construction, farms and other uses around the river. Hydraulic models are the most efficient tool for planning and developing structural and non-structural methods of flood management and reduction. Simulation of river hydraulic behavior is necessary to predict hazardous points and determine flood damage in different conditions as well as flood insurance. The purpose of this study is to use the LISFLOOD-FP two-dimensional hydraulic model and a 5m high digital elevation model to provide a flood zone with a return period of 500 years and then hazard and damage maps for the Araz Kooseh area on the southwest side of Gonbad city. Materials and Methods: In this study, the area of Chehel Chay River located at Araz Kooseh is studied. The LISFLOOD-FP two-dimensional hydraulic model outputs are used to calculate the risks associated with flooding, including the risks of water flooding, its severity, and the depth of water flooding that affects people or the environment. After collecting the data and using a series of equations, the risk is calculated and the data are graphically represented as hazard maps. The calculated risk includes flood risk to people, buildings, infrastructure, and a building damage map. Results: In this study, for floods with a return period of 500 years, the highest probability of mortality is 10.08% and the highest probability of bodily injury is 34.81% and the highest amount of damage to buildings is estimated at 8300 million Rials. Conclusion: Based on theoretical experiences, one of the appropriate methods for flood management is to determine the extent of flood progress and its height relation to the ground and also to determine the characteristics of floods. These characteristics include the speed and direction of flood progress in different return periods, which are called hazard maps. Determining these criteria can lead to a reduction in flood damage in different areas. All four hazard maps including Risk of fatality, Risk of injury to people and Physical Risk Assessment for buildings as well as Economic flood risk to buildings maps showed that the northeast side of the river is the most vulnerable part of the study area. Due to high density construction in those areas, weakness in the strength of buildings and the antiquity of some buildings, awareness of the people and municipalities about the severity of flood risk and understanding the hydraulic behavior of the river is important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comprehensive deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA) of the north and central Himalayas (NCH) is attempted in the current study using recently developed strong-motion data-based region-specific ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Two source models, linear and point sources are used for hazard assessment. An updated seismotectonic map of the NCH is developed by identifying and merging the seismic sources from the Seismotectonic Atlas (SEISAT 2000) developed by the Geological Survey of India and recent literature, and a homogenized, declustered up-to-date earthquake catalogue with events since 250 BC. The NCH is divided into grids of size approximately 5 km × 5 km, and the bedrock level peak ground acceleration (PGA) at the center of each grid point is estimated using a region-specific GMPE considering both source models. The PGA values estimated at these points are exported to a GIS platform to develop a seismic hazard map of the region, separately for different sources, average and maximum of both the sources. It is observed from the current study that the PGA estimated is apparently greater than what is recommended in the codal provisions for seismic zonation and estimation of design horizontal acceleration for the NCH. Research highlights: SHA based on the state of the art DSHA technique has been carried out using various source models and recently developed region-specific GMPEs with an updated homogenized and declustered catalogue. Deterministic Seismic Hazard contour maps have been developed representing the bedrock level horizontal acceleration developed using linear and point sources. The newly developed hazard maps for the North and Central Himalayas shows higher PGA in the range of 0.4g to 0.7g towards the plate boundary region and a decreasing trend towards the peninsular shield region and the southern alluvial plains, except at the National Capital Region. The PGA estimated are comparatively higher than the design horizontal acceleration prescribed for these regions in BIS 1893. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the global trend of climate change mitigation, Japan has been rapidly increasing its share of renewable energy, in particular, its share of solar energy. However, Japan has limited flat land area that is suitable for solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation and a high risk of natural disasters. There is a possibility that some of its newly built solar power plants are located in areas where landslides and floods are likely to occur. Therefore, it is important to study the locations for solar PV from the perspective of disaster risk management. Previous studies have reported a number of incidents where solar PV installations were damaged as a result of natural disasters. One study utilized geographical analysis technology to reveal the overlapping of solar PV powerplant locations and disaster-prone areas in Fukuoka prefecture in Japan. However, to our best knowledge, no previous research about the solar PV locations' hazard risks has been done on a national scale. This paper investigates the risks stemming from landslides and floods for the existing solar PV power plants in Japan. We compare the geographical data of disaster risks in Japan with the location data of solar PV power plants to investigate the number of solar PV power plants located in disaster risk areas. Our results show that the shares of medium and large-scale solar PV power plants located in areas where landslides and floods are likely to occur are about 8.5 and 9.1% respectively.

Recently developed region-specific GMPEs are used for a comprehensive seismic hazard analysis (SHA) of the North and Central Himalayas (NCH) using a probabilistic approach considering two source models. Vulnerable seismic sources in the areas are identified based on the Seismotectonic Atlas (Dasgupta et al. 2000), published by the Geological Survey of India. An up to date, homogenized and declustered earthquake catalogue is compiled from various sources, with earthquake data since 250 BC, to create a new digitized seismotectonic representation of the region. Regional seismic zones having similar seismicity are recognized based on the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) parameters and the region is delineated into 5 seismic zones. The study area is divided into grids of size 0.05° × 0.05° and the hazard in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at the centre of each grid point is estimated and presented as hazard maps for individual seismic sources, maximum of all sources, and average of both sources. From the current study, it could be concluded that the PGA estimated in the regions is comparatively higher than what is reported in the codal provisions for seismic zonation and estimation of design horizontal acceleration for the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The city of Constantine (NE Algeria), the third largest city of the country (2.374 inhabitants/km2) is facing frequent damaging landslides that constitute a constraint to future development and land use planning. The main goals of this study are to evaluate the effect of land use changes on the spatial distribution of landslide hazard occurrence and give an example of landslide hazard assessment as useful tool within the context of long-term land use planning in the urban area of Constantine. For this purpose, the adopted methodology requires four steps: (i) Data collection and construction of a spatial database related to the historical landslides, land use, building and population inventory; (ii) landslide inventory and land use mapping for the period of 1970 to 2011 based on the analysis of aerial photographs, high resolution satellite images, historical records verified and completed by extensive field observations, (iii) analysis of the effects of land use changes on the spatial distribution of landslide occurrence for different periods 1970 and 2011; (iv) landslide hazard map, obtained by using the frequency ration (FR) under GIS and (v) evaluate the impact of human-induced land use changes on hazard occurrence. For that, we, firstly, compared the landslide inventory map with land use maps of different periods of 1970 and 2011 that showed that since 1970, the density of landslides increases with increasing of urban areas. In 2011, the high landslide density is concentrated on the following four layers: the urban area layer (41%), the agriculture land layer (39%), the grass area layer (15%) and the forest land layer (5%). The effect of the expansion of urban zone in agriculture, grass and pasture area have increase landslide densities over time. Secondly, we compared the landslide hazard map to these land use maps and we found that 40% of the high hazard zones and 50% of the moderate hazard zones fall in the urbanized area. The obtained results show a clear impact of the changed land use where human action is an important triggering and/or accelerating factor of landslides in the urban area of Constantine. Nowadays, about 72,749 inhabitants and 25,255 buildings are located in landslides threatened area. Therefore, landslide hazard maps should, always, guide the land use and urbanization in landslides prone areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural phenomena may lead to a huge disaster that is affected by triggering phenomenon and the following phenomena that occured afterward. Nevertheless, following single scenario of disaster to create a disaster emergency plan might lead to an incomparable estimation of risk. The decision maker could reduce the risk and perform an efficient evacuation, By understanding disaster prone area based on hazard assessment. This study proposed a multi-period shelter selection and relocation by considering possible impact due to cascading effect and secondary disaster. The objective was to minimize the cost associated with transport and relocation shelter during the evacuation process. A simple yet powerful Simulated Annealing was proposed to solve the model. This study compared the cost that occurred based on two approaches, hazard assessment map, and radius based map. The result showed that model with hazard map generated a better result in comparison with radius based map. Hazard map could offer different subsets of the shelters identified in the first stage to be selected, thereby producing a minimum number of evacuees.

Abstract Traditionally volcanic-hazard assessments have been applied to stratovolcanoes, where volcanic hazard maps represent important tools for volcanic crisis management and land-use planning. In recent years, several improvements have been made for monogenetic volcanic fields focused on, among other things, the development of spatial models to deal with one of the main problems in these areas, namely the unknown vent location. However, volcanic hazard maps of monogenetic volcanic fields present some significant differences with respect to those developed for stratovolcanoes, including the fact that they commonly represent multiple eruptive processes spread over the possible vent opening area. Likewise, the scientific communication of the volcanic-hazard assessment and how this information is comprehended are critical issues in the development of mitigation strategies for monogenetic volcanic fields. In this research, we focused on developing volcanic hazard maps using simple numerical hazard models in combination with a random approach for vent location to cover the whole vent opening area. We added some spatial methods to better manage potentially affected areas. The maps were designed for use in a digital environment (Geographic Information System) by Civil Protection professionals in high-risk monogenetic volcanic fields on small oceanic islands. The methodology presented does not use susceptibility base maps for hazard assessment to avoid possible underestimation of low probability areas by Civil Protection. The methodology represents an attempt to respond to the most important questions of where, when and how a new eruption might take place in a monogenetic volcanic field. The example presented here was developed for La Palma (Canary Islands).

The paper meets the requirements of Directive 2007/60 / EC of the European Parliament and Council from 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks, namely making hazard maps and flood risk maps at individual river basin scale detailed for localities along Sulina and Sf. Gheorghe Branches. The designed hydraulic scenarios simulate real situations with breaches in the protective embankment of a width of 20m for 1 day. In total, were made 42 scenarios for Sulina Branch and 33 for Sf. Gheorghe Branch starting from the minimum to the maximum flooding levels with a step of increasing the water level at 25cm. Based on flood hazard maps, there were also made flood risk maps using the vulnerability curves for the analyzed categories: buildings, agriculture, road, forest, grassland.

Floods, as a major natural disaster, affect many parts of the world, not including developed countries. Due to this natural disaster, every year there are losses of human life and damage to the territory for millions of euros. Damage and losses can be prevented and limited by providing reliable information to institutions and citizens through flood hazard models and maps (Demir, 2015). Hydraulic models and digital cartography are essential for municipal planning, for civil protection emergency plans, for a correct design of works to prevent hydrogeological phenomena (Goodell and Warren, 2006). In the first days of November 2018, Sicily was affected by a phase of disturbed weather, characterized by intense and abundant rains that caused serious damage to the community and the territory. Geographical information systems (GIS) using spatial data are able to integrate hydraulic models for the simulation of flood events and are capable of drawing up maps of hydraulic hazard and estimating damage from hydrogeological instability (Demir, 2015). The GIS integrated with the hydraulic model is able to estimate the flood profile with a fixed return time. The hydraulic model used was developed after 1970 by the River Software Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydrological engineering center of the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and is now widely used in Europe and America. GIS and HEC-RAS models have been successfully used to obtain flood maps of the Waller River in Texas (Tate et al., 2002), Ohio Swan River Basin (Wiles and Levine, 2002), Atrato River in Colombia (Mosquera-Machado and Ahmad, 2007), Vistula River in Warsaw, Poland (Gutry-Korycka et al., 2006), the Gordon River in France (Sheffer et al., 2008), northwestern Colombia (Mosquera-Machado and Ahmad, 2007), central-eastern Dhaka in Bangladesh (Masood and Takeuchi, 2012), and Onaville in Haiti (Heimhuber, 2015). Celik et al. analyzed the Kozdere Stream 2004 flood in Istanbul using HEC-RAS and GIS (Celik et al., 2012). Sole et al. they have drawn up risk maps of the Basilicata region (Italy), generating profiles of free-flowing currents for different return times (30, 200 and 500 years) (Sole et al., 2007). Masood and Takeuchi used HEC-RAS and GIS to assess flood danger, vulnerability and hydraulic risk in Middle East Dhaka (Masood and Takeuchi, 2012), obtaining flood maps for floods with a 100-year return time. Sarhadi et al. investigated forecasting models of flooding in rivers in southeastern Iran using HEC-RAS and GIS (Sarhadi et al., 2012). Heimhuber et al. they used HEC-RAS and GIS to perform the simulations in one-dimensional and non-stationary motion conditions for the design of the large Lan Couline channel (Heimhuber et al., 2015). The aim of this study is to study models to simulate scenarios for flood events in the Milicia River basin using the GIS and HEC-RAS for different return periods (50, 100 and 300).