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When healthcare interventions prolong life, people consume medical and non-medical goods during the years of life they gain. It has been argued that the costs for medical consumption should be included in cost-effectiveness analyses from both a healthcare and societal perspective, and the costs for non-medical consumption should additionally be included when a societal perspective is applied. Standardized estimates of these so-called future costs are available in only a few countries and the impact of inclusion of these costs is likely to differ between countries. In this paper we present and compare future costs for five European countries and estimate the impact of including these costs on the cost-effectiveness of life-prolonging interventions. As countries differ in the availability of data, we illustrate how both individual- and aggregate-level data sources can be used to construct standardized estimates of future costs. Results show a large variation in costs between countries. The medical costs for the Netherlands, Germany, and the United Kingdom are large compared to Spain and Greece. Non-medical costs are higher in Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom than in Greece. The impact of including future costs on the ICER similarly varied between countries, ranging from €1000 to €35,000 per QALY gained. The variation between countries in impact on the ICER is largest when considering medical costs and indicate differences in both structure and level of healthcare financing in these countries. Case study analyses were performed in which we highlight the large impact of including future costs on ICER relative to willingness-to-pay thresholds.

Background In 2015, the Dutch government implemented a long-term care (LTC) reform primarily designed topromote older adults to age-in-place. Increased proportions of older adults living in the community might haveresulted in more and longer acute hospitalisations. The aims of this study were to evaluate whether the Dutch 2015LTC reform was associated with immediate and longitudinal increases in the monthly rate of acute clinicalhospitalisation and monthly average hospital length of stay (LOS) in adults aged 65 years or older.Methods In this interrupted time series analysis of national hospital data (2009–18), we evaluated the association ofthe Dutch 2015 LTC reform with the monthly rate of acute clinical hospitalisation and monthly average LOS for olderadults (aged ≥65 years). Patient-level episodic hospital data were provided by Dutch Hospital Data. Records wereincluded that were defined as an acute clinical hospital admission for which a medical specialist decided treatmentwas necessary within 24 h. The analysis controlled for population growth (Dutch population data was provided byStatistics Netherlands) and seasonality, and calculated adjusted incident rate ratios (IRR).Findings Before the 2015 LTC reform, the rate of acute monthly hospitalisation was increasing (IRR 1·002 [95% CI1·001–1·002]). A positive average reform effect was observed (1·116 [1·070–1·165]), accompanied by a negative changein trend (0·997 [0·996–0·998]) that resulted in a decreasing trend over the post-reform period (0·998 [0·998–0·999]).The pre-reform trend of LOS was decreasing (0·998 [0·997–0·998]), and the 2015 reform exhibited a positive changein trend (1·002 [1·002–1·003]) that resulted in a stabilisation of LOS in the post-reform period (0·999 [0·999–1·000]).Interpretation Our findings suggest that the increase in the rate of acute hospitalisation after the reformimplementation was temporary, whereas the increase in LOS post-reform appeared to last longer than expected.These results have the potential to inform policy makers about effects of ageing-in-place LTC strategies on health andcurative care.

The prevalence of multimorbidity among rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients is increasing and associated with worse outcomes. Therefore, management of multimorbid patients requires a multidisciplinary approach. However, healthcare systems consist of mono-disciplinary subsystems, which limits collaboration across subsystems. To study the importance of a multidisciplinary, integrated approach, associations between expenditures and multimorbidity are assessed in real-life data. Retrospective data on RA patients from a Dutch single-hospital are analyzed and compared to the Dutch RA population data. The Elixhauser index is used to measure the multimorbidity prevalence. Regression analyses were conducted to derive the relationship between multimorbidity, healthcare costs and self-reported quality of life (e.g. EQ-5D). When analyzing the impact of multimorbidity within RA patients in context of a single-hospital context, multimorbidity is only partially captured: 13% prevalence versus 24% of the Dutch population. Multimorbidity is associated with higher care expenditures. Depending on the type of multimorbidity, expenditures are €43–€5821 higher in a single-hospital and from €2259–€9648 in population data. Finally, medication use associated with chronic diseases and self-reported aspects of well-being are associated with similar increases in healthcare expenditures as multimorbidity based on hospital care. Within RA, a single-hospital approach underestimates the association between multimorbidity and healthcare expenditures as 43% of healthcare utilization and expenditures are missed. To overcome a single-provider perspective in healthcare and efficiently coordinate multimorbid patients, besides providing holistic care, professionals also need to use data providing comprehensive pictures of patients.

Background The prevalence of excess weight has been increasing globally in the last decades, affecting disproportionally adults from low socio-economic backgrounds and putting undue pressure on health systems and societal resources. In England, tackling unfair and unjust health inequalities is at the heart of national public health policy, and a prerequisite for enabling these decision makers to set policy priorities is an understanding of the prevalence and determinants of excess weight inequalities in their local population. Methods We conducted both pooled (England) and regional-level (nine regions: North-East, North-West, Yorkshire and Humber, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East and South West) analyses of individual level data from a nationally representative sample of adults (N = 6,387). We used the Corrected Concentration Index (CCI) to measure absolute inequalities in excess weight across three dimensions of socio-economic deprivation: neighbourhood-level deprivation, occupational status and educational qualification. We used a Shapley decomposition method to evaluate their relative contribution to inequality. Results At a national level, all three dimensions of socio-economic deprivation were found to be positively associated with excess weight across the adult population, as measured by the CCI, with educational qualification ranking first [CCI: -0.090, p p Conclusions While socio-economic inequalities in excess weight exist in the English adult population, our findings underscore the importance of considering multiple dimensions of deprivation and the unique needs of different populations when developing policies to address overweight and obesity. Targeted interventions for adults with overweight and obesity with long-lasting illnesses and women can generate both short-term and long-term economic benefits, by reducing healthcare costs and increasing workforce productivity.

Health-related discrete choice experiments (DCEs) information can be used to inform decision-making on the development, authorisation, reimbursement and marketing of drugs and devices as well as treatments in clinical practice. Discrete choice experiment is a stated preference method based on random utility theory (RUT), which imposes strong assumptions on respondent choice behaviour. However, respondents may use choice processes that do not adhere to the normative rationality assumptions implied by RUT, applying simplifying decision rules that are more selective in the amount and type of processed information (i.e., simplifying heuristics). An overview of commonly detected simplifying heuristics in health-related DCEs is lacking, making it unclear how to identify and deal with these heuristics; more specifically, how researchers might alter DCE design and modelling strategies to accommodate for the effects of heuristics. Therefore, the aim of this paper is three-fold: (1) provide an overview of common simplifying heuristics in health-related DCEs, (2) describe how choice task design and context as well as target population selection might impact the use of heuristics, (3) outline DCE design strategies that recognise the use of simplifying heuristics and develop modelling strategies to demonstrate the detection and impact of simplifying heuristics in DCE study outcomes.

BackgroundIn the Netherlands in 2020, COVID-19 deaths were more concentrated among individuals with a lower income. At the same time, COVID-19 was a new cause that also displaced some deaths from other causes, potentially reducing income-related inequality in non-COVID deaths. Our aim is to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the income-related inequality in total mortality and decompose this into the inequality in COVID-attributed deaths and changes in the inequality in non-COVID causes.MethodsWe estimate excess deaths (observed minus trend-predicted deaths) by sex, age and income group for the Netherlands in 2020. Using a measure of income-related inequality (the concentration index), we decompose the inequality in total excess mortality into COVID-19 versus non-COVID causes.ResultsCause-attributed COVID-19 mortality exceeded total excess mortality by 12% for the 65–79 age group and by about 35% for 80+ in the Netherlands in 2020, implying a decrease in the number of non-COVID deaths compared with what was predicted. The income-related inequality in all-cause mortality was higher than predicted. This increase in inequality resulted from the combination of COVID-19 mortality, which was more unequally distributed than predicted total mortality, and the inequality in non-COVID causes, which was less unequal than predicted.ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic has led to an increase in income-related inequality in all-cause mortality. Non-COVID mortality was less unequally distributed than expected due to displacement of other causes by COVID-19 and the potentially unequal broader societal impact of the pandemic.

Objectives: In cost-effectiveness analysis of health technologies, health state utilities are needed. They are often elicited with acomposite time trade-off (cTTO) method, particularly for the widely used EQ-5D-5L. Unfortunately, cTTO discriminatorypower is hindered by (1) respondents’ nontrading (NT) of time for quality, (2) censoring of utilities at 21, and (3) poorcorrelation of negative utilities with state severity. We investigated whether modifying cTTO can mitigate these effects.Methods: We interviewed online 478 students (February to April, 2021) who each valued the same 10 EQ-5D-5L health statesin 1 of 3 arms. Arm A used a standard cTTO, expanded with 2 questions to explore reasons for NT and censoring. Arms B and Cused a time trade-off with modified alternatives offered to overcome loss aversion, to unify the tasks for positive and negativeutilities, and to enable eliciting utilities , 21.Results: In arms B and C, we observed less NT than in A (respectively, 4% and 4% vs 10%), more strictly negative utilities (38%and 40% vs 25%), and more utilities # 21 (18% and 30% vs 10%). The average utility of state 55555 dropped to 22.15 and 22.52from 20.53. Enabling finer trades in arm A reduced NT by 70%. Arms B and C yielded an intuitive association betweennegative utilities and state severity. These arms were considered more difficult and resulted in more inconsistencies.Conclusions: The discriminatory power of cTTO can be improved, but it may require increasing the difficulty of the task. Thestandard cTTO may overestimate the utilities, especially of severe states.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: EQ-5D-Y-3L health states are commonly valued by asking adults to complete stated preference tasks, 'given their views about a 10-year-old child' (hereafter referred to as proxy 1). The use of this perspective has been a source of debate. In this paper, we investigated an alternative proxy perspective: i.e. adults considered what they think a 10-year old-child would decide for itself (hereafter, proxy 2 (substitute)]. Our main objective was to explore how the outcomes, dispersion and response patterns of a composite time trade-off valuation differ between proxy 1 and proxy 2.METHODS: A team of four trained interviewers completed 402 composite time trade-off interviews following the EQ-5D-Y-3L protocol. Respondents were randomly allocated to value health states in either the proxy 1 or proxy 2 (substitute) perspective. Each respondent valued ten health states with the perspective they were assigned to, as well as one health state with the alternative perspective (33333).RESULTS: The use of different proxy perspectives yielded differences in EQ-5D-Y-3L valuation. For states in which children had considerable pain and were very worried, sad or unhappy, respondents' valuations were lower in proxy 1 than in proxy 2 (substitute) perspectives, by about 0.2. Within-subject variation across health states was lower for proxy 2 (substitute) than proxy 1 perspectives. Analyses of response patterns suggest that data for proxy 2 (substitute) perspectives were less clustered.CONCLUSIONS: There are systematic differences between composite time trade-off responses given by adults deciding for children and adults considering what children would want for themselves. In addition to warranting further qualitative exploration, such differences contribute to the ongoing normative discussion surrounding the source and perspective used for valuation of child and adolescent health.

Permanent nursing home (NH) admissions are a frequent and major life event aimed at maintaining quality of life in old age. Yet, insights into the impact of a NH admission on well-being are scarce and inconclusive. We evaluate the effect of a NH admission on domains of well-being among those who are admitted using event study methodology for cross-sections combined with inverse probability weighting. We apply this doubly robust approach to Dutch survey data on well-being linked to extensive administrative data on NH admissions, health, and socio-economic status. We find that a NH admission leads to a temporary increase in loneliness, the risk of anxiety and depression, and a loss of control over one's life. However, these scores revert to pre-admission levels after 6 months. These findings may contribute to better-informed individual-level and policy decisions about potential NH entry and aging in place policies.

In the Netherlands, about one-third of the adult population provides unpaid care. Providing informal caregiving can be very straining in normal times, but the impact of a public health crisis on caregivers is largely unknown. This study focuses on the question of how caregiver burden changed following the COVID-19 pandemic, and what characteristics were related to these changes. We use self-reported data from a sample of 965 informal caregivers from the Netherlands 3 months into the pandemic to investigate how the objective burden (i.e. hours spent on caregiving) and the subjective burden had changed, and what their care-related quality of life (CarerQol) was. We found that on average the subjective burden had increased slightly (from 4.75 to 5.04 on a 0–10 scale). However, our analysis revealed that some caregivers were more affected than others. Most affected caregivers were women, and those with low income, better physical health, decreased psychological health, childcare responsibilities, longer duration of caregiving and those caring for someone with decreased physical and psychological health. On average, time spent on care remained the same (a median of 15 h per week), but certain groups of caregivers did experience a change, being those caring for people in an institution and for people with a better psychological health before the pandemic. Furthermore, caregivers experiencing changes in objective burden did not have the same characteristics as those experiencing changes in perceived burden and quality of life. This shows that the consequences of a public health crisis on caregivers cannot be captured by a focus on either objective or subjective burden measures or quality of life alone. Long-term care policies aiming to support caregivers to persevere during a future crisis should target caregivers at risk of increased subjective burden and a lower CarerQol, such as women, people with a low income and people with childcare responsibilities. Such policies should consider that reducing objective burden may not necessarily lead to a reduction in subjective burden for all caregivers.

Measuring performance in healthcare remains a challenge. The use of health outcomes rather than structure and process indicators is considered as the way forward, but outcome-based results risk being biased by selection. Accounting for such selection bias is more difficult in settings with small-sized providers and low chances of resident health improvement, like in the case of nursing homes. In this paper we (i) measure the health outcomes of Dutch nursing homes in terms of mortality and avoidable hospitalizations among residents, (ii) we adopt a novel approach to test for selection bias and (iii) we examine the relationship between outcomes and other nursing home quality indicators and characteristics. Using administrative data from more than 110,000 residents, we estimate the performance of the 849 largest nursing homes in the Netherlands in the period 2015–2019. Controlling for an extensive set of observable case-mix variables, we first test for the presence of selection bias using a distance-based instrumental variable. We do not find any evidence for such a structural bias. While the wide confidence intervals of the estimates display considerable imprecision, our results do reveal substantial differences between top and bottom performing nursing homes. Because the outcome-based estimates turn out to be only weakly correlated with other quality indicators, we conclude that our mortality and avoidable hospitalization-based indicators provide important complementary information. When small sample issues and case-mix differences are adequately accounted for, outcome-based indicators can provide useful policy guidance for quality improvement in nursing homes.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: There is increasing interest in preference-accompanied measures of health for paediatric populations. The child-friendly EQ-5D version, EQ-5D-Y-3L, is one such instrument, but the lack of a Dutch value set prevents its use in economic evaluations of healthcare interventions in the Netherlands. This study aims at covering this gap by collecting preferences using a standardised protocol for deriving EQ-5D-Y-3L value sets.METHODS: Composite time trade-off data were collected using videoconferencing interviews, with each respondent completing ten composite time trade-off tasks. Discrete choice experiment data were collected using an online survey, with respondents each completing 15 paired comparisons. Respondents completed these tasks considering what they prefer for a hypothetical 10-year-old child. Discrete choice experiment data were analysed using a ten-parameter mixed-logit model and anchored to the quality-adjusted life-year scale using the mean observed composite time trade-off values.RESULTS: The study collected preferences for 197 respondents using composite time trade-off and for 959 respondents using a discrete choice experiment. The discrete choice experiment sample was representative for the Dutch population in terms of age and sex. The level 3 weight for pain/discomfort was the largest, followed by feeling worried, sad or unhappy, usual activities, mobility and self-care. Health state values ranged between -0.218 and 1.CONCLUSIONS: This study generated a Dutch value set for the EQ-5D-Y-3L, which can be used for the computation of quality-adjusted life-years for economic evaluations of healthcare interventions in paediatric populations.

Objectives: The estimation of lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) requires the extrapolation of both length and quality of life (QoL). The extrapolation of QoL has received little attention in the literature. Here we explore the predictive value of “time to death” (TTD) for extrapolating QoL in oncology. Methods: We used QoL and survival data from the Patient Reported Outcomes Following Initial Treatment and Long-Term Evaluation of Survivorship registry, which is linked to The Netherlands Cancer Registry. QoL was assessed with EQ-5D and SF-6D. We tested the relationship between TTD and QoL using linear, 2-part, and beta regression models. Incremental QALYs were compared using the TTD approach and an annual age-related disutility approach using artificial survival data with varying mortality rates. Results: A total of 6 samples with >100 patients each were used for the analysis. A declining pattern in QoL was observed when patients were closer to death, confirming the predictive value of TTD for QoL. The declining pattern in QoL was most pronounced when QoL was measured with SF-6D. Proximity to death had a larger impact on QoL than age. Incremental QALYs were higher using the TTD approach than annual age-related disutility, ranging from +0.139 to +0.00003 depending on mortality rates. Conclusions: TTD is a predictor variable for QoL. Using TTD allows cost-effectiveness models that lack QoL data to extrapolate morbidity using overall survival estimates. The TTD approach generates more incremental QALYs than an annual age-related disutility, most notably for longer survival periods.

Health economists have written extensively on the design and implementation of coverage with evidence development (CED) schemes and have proposed theoretical frameworks based on cost-effectiveness modeling and value of information analysis. CED may aid decision-makers when there is uncertainty about the (cost-)effectiveness of a new health technology at the time of reimbursement. Medical devices are potential candidates for CED schemes, as regulatory regimes do not usually require the same level of efficacy and safety data normally needed for pharmaceuticals. The purpose of this research is to assess whether the actual practice of CED for medical devices in Europe meets the theoretical principles proposed by health economists and whether theory and practice can be more closely aligned. Based on decision-makers' perceptions of the challenges associated with CED schemes, plus examples from the schemes themselves, we discuss a series of proposals for assessing the desirability of schemes, their design, implementation, and evaluation. These proposals, while reflecting the practical challenges with developing CED programs, embody many of the principles suggested by economists and should support decision-makers in dealing with uncertainty about the real-world performance of devices.

We study the appeal of basic preference conditions that underpin health inequality indices, including the widely used concentration index. We did a lab experiment in which 349 respondents had to choose repeatedly between two policies that generated a distribution of income and health among five groups in society. We found stronger support for preference conditions that focus on inequality in the marginal distribution of health (and income) than for preference conditions that favor reduced correlation between both dimensions. Respondents’ choices were more in line with the principle of income related health transfers when policies did not affect the ranking of groups in terms of health. Respondents also expressed more concern about the correlation between income and health when health was expressed as a shortfall rather than an attainment. Support for the preference conditions was unaffected when all groups in society experienced the same absolute or relative health change.

Background: Dexamethasone is a cornerstone of paediatric acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) treatment, although it can induce serious side-effects. Our previous study suggests that children who suffer most from neurobehavioural side-effects might benefit from physiological hydrocortisone in addition to dexamethasone treatment. This study aimed to validate this finding. Methods: Our phase three, double-blind, randomised controlled trial with cross-over design included ALL patients (3–18 years) during medium-risk maintenance therapy in a national tertiary hospital between 17th May 2018 and 5th August 2020. A baseline measurement before and after a 5-day dexamethasone course was performed, whereafter 52 patients with clinically relevant neurobehavioural problems were randomised to receive an intervention during four subsequent dexamethasone courses. The intervention consisted of two courses hydrocortisone (physiological dose 10 mg/m2/d in circadian rhythm), followed by two courses placebo, or vice versa. Neurobehavioural problems were assessed before and after each course using the parent-reported Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) as primary end-point. Secondary end-points were sleep problems, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), hunger feeling, and parental stress, measured with questionnaires and actigraphy. A generalised mixed model was estimated to study the intervention effect. Results: The median age was 5.5 years (range 3.0–18.8) and 61.5% were boys. The SDQ filled in by 51 primary caregivers showed no difference between hydrocortisone and placebo in reducing dexamethasone-induced neurobehavioral problems (estimated effect -2.05 (95% confidence interval (CI) -6.00–1.90). Also, no benefit from hydrocortisone compared to placebo was found for reducing sleep problems, hunger, parental stress or improving HRQoL. Conclusions: Hydrocortisone, when compared to placebo, had no additional effect in reducing clinically relevant dexamethasone-induced neurobehavioural problems. Therefore, hydrocortisone is not advised as standard of care for children with ALL who experience dexamethasone-induced neurobehavioural problems. Trial registration: Netherlands Trial Register NTR6695/NL6507 (https://trialsearch.who.int/) and EudraCT 2017–002738–22 (https://eudract.ema.europa.eu/).

Objectives Disease transmission models are used in impact assessment and economic evaluations of infectious disease prevention and treatment strategies, prominently so in the COVID-19 response. These models rarely consider dimensions of equity relating to the differential health burden between individuals and groups. We describe concepts and approaches which are useful when considering equity in the priority setting process, and outline the technical choices concerning model structure, outputs, and data requirements needed to use transmission models in analyses of health equity. Methods We reviewed the literature on equity concepts and approaches to their application in economic evaluation and undertook a technical consultation on how equity can be incorporated in priority setting for infectious disease control. The technical consultation brought together health economists with an interest in equity-informative economic evaluation, ethicists specialising in public health, mathematical modellers from various disease backgrounds, and representatives of global health funding and technical assistance organisations, to formulate key areas of consensus and recommendations. Results We provide a series of recommendations for applying the Reference Case for Economic Evaluation in Global Health to infectious disease interventions, comprising guidance on 1) the specification of equity concepts; 2) choice of evaluation framework; 3) model structure; and 4) data needs. We present available conceptual and analytical choices, for example how correlation between different equity- and disease-relevant strata should be considered dependent on available data, and outline how assumptions and data limitations can be reported transparently by noting key factors for consideration. Conclusions Current developments in economic evaluations in global health provide a wide range of methodologies to incorporate equity into economic evaluations. Those employing infectious disease models need to use these frameworks more in priority setting to accurately represent health inequities. We provide guidance on the technical approaches to support this goal and ultimately, to achieve more equitable health policies.

This thesis consists of studies in behavioural health economics which examine the effects of preferences and perceptions on decision-making. It argues that humans are prone to reasoning failures, which can lead to non-optimal outcomes in health-related decisions. The first part of this thesis shows how deviations from conventionally defined rationality may exist in the area of health and welfare and suggests some ways forward. The second part, using insights from behavioural health economics, focuses on preferences and perceptions of people in the context of health decisions related to COVID-19, suggesting their relevance in (expected) health behaviours.

A cost-effectiveness analysis has become an important method to inform allocation decisions and reimbursement of new technologies in healthcare. A cost-effectiveness analysis requires a threshold to which the cost effectiveness of a new intervention can be compared. In principle, the threshold ought to reflect opportunity costs of reimbursing a new technology. In this paper, we contrast the practical use of this threshold within a CEA with its theoretical underpinnings. We argue that several assumptions behind the theoretical models underlying this threshold are violated in practice. This implies that a simple application of the decision rules of CEA using a single estimate of the threshold does not necessarily improve population health or societal welfare. Conceptual differences regarding the interpretation of the threshold, widely varying estimates of its value, and an inconsistent use within and outside the healthcare sector are important challenges in informing policy makers on optimal reimbursement decision and setting appropriate healthcare budgets.

Purpose To investigate health-related quality of life (HRQoL) over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in seven European countries and its association with selected sociodemographic as well as COVID-19-related variables. Methods We used longitudinal data from nine quarterly waves collected between April 2020 and January 2022 (sample size per wave ranging from N = 7025 to 7300) of the European COvid Survey (ECOS), a representative survey of adults in Germany, United Kingdom, Denmark, Netherlands, France, Portugal and Italy. HRQoL was measured using the EQ-5D-5L. The association of self-reported COVID-19 infection, perceived health risk from COVID-19, selected sociodemographic variables and the COVID-19 stringency index with HRQoL was analyzed by logistic and linear fixed effects regressions. Results On average across all nine waves, the proportion of respondents reporting any problems in at least one of the EQ-5D dimensions ranged between 63.8% (Netherlands) and 71.0% (Denmark). Anxiety/depression was the most frequently affected EQ-5D dimension in four countries (Portugal: 52.0%; United Kingdom: 50.2%; Italy: 49.2%; France: 49.0%), whereas pain/discomfort ranked first in three countries (Denmark: 58.3%; Germany: 55.8%; Netherlands: 49.0%). On average across all nine waves, the EQ-VAS score ranged from 70.1 in the United Kingdom to 78.4 in Portugal. Moreover, the EQ-5D-5L index ranged from .82 in Denmark to .94 in France. The occurrence of COVID-19 infection, changes in the perceived risk to one’s own health from COVID-19, the occurrence of income difficulties and an increase in the COVID-19 stringency index were associated with increased likelihood of problems in EQ-5D dimensions, reduced EQ-VAS score and reduced EQ-5D-5L index. Conclusions Across seven European countries, we found large proportions of respondents reporting problems in HRQoL dimensions throughout the pandemic, especially for anxiety/depression. Various sociodemographic and COVID-19-related variables were associated with HRQoL in longitudinal analysis.

BACKGROUND: Disease modifying treatments (DMTs) currently under development for Alzheimer's disease, have the potential to prevent or postpone institutionalization and more expensive care and might delay institutionalization of persons with dementia. OBJECTIVE: The current study estimates costs of living in a nursing home for persons with dementia in the Netherlands to help inform economic evaluations of future DMTs. METHODS: Data were collected during semi-structured interviews with healthcare professionals and from the financial administration of a healthcare organization with several nursing homes. Personnel costs were calculated using a bottom-up approach by valuing the time estimates. Non-personnel costs were calculated using information from the financial administration of the healthcare organization. RESULTS: Total costs of a person with dementia per 24 hours, including both care staff and other healthcare providers, were € 151 for small-scale living wards and € 147 for independent living wards. Non-personnel costs were € 37 per day. CONCLUSION: This study provides Dutch estimates for total healthcare costs per day for institutionalized persons with dementia. These cost estimates can be used in cost-effectiveness analyses for future DMTs in dementia.

Societies face the challenge of providing appropriate arrangements for individuals who need living support due to their mental disorders. We estimate the effects of eligibility to the Dutch supported housing program (Beschermd Wonen), which offers a structured living environment in the community as an intermediate alternative to independent housing and inpatient care. For this, we use exogenous variation in eligibility based on conditionally random assignment of applications to assessors, and the universe of applications to supported housing in the Netherlands, linked to rich administrative data. Supported housing eligibility increases the probability of moving into supported housing and decreases the use of home care, resulting in higher total care expenditures. This increase is primarily due to the costs of supported housing, but potentially also higher consumption of curative mental health care. Supported housing eligibility reduces the total personal income and income from work. Findings do also suggest lower participation in the labor market by the individuals granted eligibility, but the labor participation of their parents increases in the long-run. Our study highlights the trade-offs of access to supported housing for those at the margin of eligibility, informing the design of long-term mental health care systems around the world.

Low insurance take-up in low-income populations is not easily explained by the standard single-period expected utility model of insurance that overlooks the relevance of time preference when liquidity is constrained. We design field survey instruments to elicit quasi-hyperbolic time preferences, as well as prospect theory risk preferences, and use them to examine whether time preferences explain health insurance behavior of low-income Filipinos. Consistent with theory, those with stronger parameterized time preference are less likely to insure and the partial association is most pronounced at low wealth where liquidity is most likely to be constrained. Among those with better understanding of insurance, lower take-up is also associated with present bias. We do not find that insurance is significantly associated with risk preferences.

ObjectivesThe COVID-19 pandemic forms an unprecedented public health, economic, and social crisis. Uptake of vaccination is critical for controlling the pandemic. Nevertheless, vaccination hesitancy is considerable, requiring policies to promote uptake. We investigate Dutch citizens’ preferences for policies that aim to promote vaccination through facilitating choice of vaccination, profiling it as the norm, making vaccination more attractive through rewards, or punishing people who reject vaccination.MethodsWe conducted a discrete choice experiment in which 747 respondents were asked to choose between policies to promote vaccination uptake and their impacts on the number of deaths, people with permanent health problems, households with income loss, and a tax increase.ResultsRespondents generally had a negative preference for policies that promote vaccination. They particularly disliked policies that punish those who reject the vaccine and were more favorable toward policies that reward vaccination, such as awarding additional rights to vaccinated individuals through vaccination passports. Respondents who reject vaccination were in general much more negative about the policy options than respondents who consider accepting the vaccine. Nevertheless, vaccination passports are supported by both respondents who accept the vaccine, those who reject vaccination, and those who are unsure about vaccination.ConclusionsThis study provides concrete directions for governments attempting to increase the vaccination uptake in ways that are supported by the public. Our results could encourage policy makers to focus on policy options that make vaccination easier and reward people who take the vaccine, as especially the implementation of vaccination passports was supported.

Objectives: Following protocol, adults value EQ-5D-Y-3L health states from the perspective of a 10-year-old child. It remains unclear why adults value health states differently for themselves than for a 10-year-old child and whether the latter perspective is representative of adults’ preferences for the 8 to 15 years age range of the EQ-5D-Y-3L. This study examines the reasons underlying (potential) differences in adults’ health-state preferences for themselves, a 10-year-old child, and 15-year-old adolescent. Methods: We conducted semistructured interviews using a think-aloud protocol with 25 participants who performed valuation tasks in July 2020 to August 2020. Using the Framework Method, we developed 28 categories grouped under 5 themes that illustrated the differences emerging from the interviews. Results: Participants (A) deemed it more straining to perform valuation tasks for a 10-year-old child and 15-year-old adolescent than for themselves, (B) had a stable self-image, but varied in whom they imagined as 10-year-old child and 15-year-old adolescent, (C) focused on different dimensions and levels for a 15-year-old adolescent than for a 10-year-old child and themselves, (D) had various thoughts about nonhealth-related factors that influenced their preferences, and (E) gave up relatively few life-years for a 10-year-old child and 15-year-old adolescent, also to avoid others bearing a grudge against them. Conclusions: Our results indicate that differences in adults’ health-state preferences for themselves and a 10-year-old child largely result from differences in thoughts about nonhealth-related factors. They further indicate that health-state preferences for a 10-year-old child may not be representative of such preferences for the full EQ-5D-Y-3L age range.

Introduction Currently, it is not known what attributes of health care interventions citizens consider important in disinvestment decision-making (i.e. decisions to discontinue reimbursement). Therefore, this study aims to investigate the preferences of citizens of the Netherlands toward the relative importance of attributes of health care interventions in the context of disinvestment. Methods A participatory value evaluation (PVE) was conducted in April and May 2020. In this PVE, 1143 Dutch citizens were asked to save at least €100 million by selecting health care interventions for disinvestment from a list of eight unlabeled health care interventions, described solely with attributes. A portfolio choice model was used to analyze participants' choices. Results Participants preferred to disinvest health care interventions resulting in smaller gains in quality of life and life expectancy that are provided to older patient groups. Portfolios (i.e. combinations of health care interventions) resulting in smaller savings were preferred for disinvestment over portfolios with larger savings. Conclusion The disinvestment of health care interventions resulting in smaller health gains and that are targeted at older patient groups is likely to receive most public support. By incorporating this information in the selection of candidate interventions for disinvestment and the communication on disinvestment decisions, policymakers may increase public support for disinvestment.

There were no estimates of the prevalence of pain and its treatment in the older population of India obtained from face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample. We addressed this evidence gap by using data on 63,931 individuals aged 45 years and older from the 2017/2018 Longitudinal Ageing Study in India. We identified pain from an affirmative response to the question: Are you often troubled by pain? We also identified those who reported pain that limited usual activities and who received treatment for pain. We estimated age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of pain, pain limiting usual activity and treatment, and compared these estimates across states and sociodemographic groups. We used a multivariable probit model to estimate full adjusted differences in the probability of each outcome across states and sociodemographic groups. We estimated that 36.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 35.3-37.8) of older adults in India were often troubled by pain and 25.2% (95% CI: 24.2-26.1) experienced pain limiting usual activity. We estimated that 73.3% (95% CI: 71.9-74.6) of those often troubled by pain and 76.4% (95% CI: 74.9-78.0) of those with pain that limited usual activity received treatment. There was large variation in each outcome across states. Fully adjusted prevalence of pain and pain limiting usual activity were higher among individuals who were female, older, less educated, rural residents, and poorer. Prevalence of treatment among those troubled by pain was lower among socially disadvantaged groups.

Aim: Estimating the burden of obesity in five European countries (Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK) and the potential health benefits and changes in health care costs associated with a reduction in body mass index (BMI). Materials and Methods: A Markov model was used to estimate the long-term burden of obesity. Health states were based on the occurrence of diabetes, ischaemic heart disease and stroke. Multiple registries and literature sources were used to derive the demographic, epidemiological and cost input parameters. For the base-case analyses, the model was run for a starting cohort of healthy obese people with a BMI of 30 and 35 kg/m2 aged 40 years to estimate the lifetime impact of obesity and the impact of a one-unit decrease in BMI. Different scenario and sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: The base-case analyses showed that total lifetime health care costs (for obese people aged 40 and BMI 35 kg/m2) ranged from €75 376 in Greece to €343 354 in the Netherlands, with life expectancies ranging from 37.9 years in Germany to 39.7 years in Spain. A one-unit decrease in BMI showed gains in life expectancy ranging from 0.65 to 0.68 year and changes in total health care costs varying from −€1563 to +€4832. Conclusions: The economic burden of obesity is substantial in the five countries. Decreasing BMI results in health gains, reductions in obesity-related health care costs, but an increase in non-obesity related health care costs, which emphasizes the relevance of including all costs in decision making on implementation of preventive interventions.

Efficiently allocating scarce healthcare resources requires nuanced understanding of individual and collective interests as well as relative concerns, which may overlap or conflict. This paper is the first to empirically investigate whether and to what extent self-interest (SI), positional concerns (PC) and distributional considerations (DC) simultaneously explain individual decision making related to access to healthcare services. Our investigation is based on a stated choice experiment conducted in two countries with different healthcare systems, the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK). The choice experiment is on allocation of medical treatment waiting times for a hypothetical disease. We carry out the investigation under two different perspectives: (i) in a socially inclusive personal perspective decision makers were asked to choose between waiting time distributions for themselves and (ii) in a social perspective decision makers were asked to make similar choices for a close relative or friend of opposite gender. The results obtained by estimating a variety of advanced choice models indicate that DC, SI and PC, in this order of importance, are significant drivers of choice behaviour in our empirical context. These findings are consistent regardless of the choice perspective and the country where decision makers live. Comparing the results from different choice perspectives, we find that US respondents who chose for their close relative or friend attach significantly larger weight to their close relative’s or friend’s waiting times as well as to the overall distribution of waiting times than US respondents who chose for themselves. Looking at differences between countries, our results show that UK respondents who made choices for themselves placed significantly larger weight on SI and DC than US respondents, while US respondents, in turn, displayed relatively stronger but not significantly different positional concerns than UK respondents. In addition, we observe that UK respondents who chose for their close relative or friend put a larger weight on DC than their US counterparts. We conclude that the methodological (data collection and analysis) approach allows for disentangling the relative importance of the three motivations and discusses the potential implications of these findings for healthcare decision making.

We estimate the relationship between household mortgage debt and consumption for the period 2006 to 2015. Using Dutch administrative data, we find that the average consumption of households with high mortgage debt prior to the financial crisis has decreased much more during the crisis than that of other households. We also find that the willingness or ability among households to use new mortgage debt to finance one-off high consumption decreased during the crisis. On the macro-level, the drop in Dutch consumption during the financial crisis is predominantly driven by households who were already in high debt. They are responsible for a 7 percentage points drop in macro-consumption at the worst point of the financial crisis. Within this group, the drop in consumption of households with negative home equity explains 6 percentage point of the total drop in macro-consumption.

In this paper, we use the risk apportionment technique of Eeckhoudt, Rey and Schlesinger (2007) to study higher order risk preferences for others’ health as well as ex-ante and ex-post inequality preferences for social risky distributions, and their interaction. In an experiment on a sample of university students acting as impartial spectators, we observe risk aversion towards social health losses and a dislike of ex-ante inequality. In addition, evidence for ex-post inequality seeking is much weaker than evidence for ex-ante inequality aversion. Because ex-ante inequality aversion is unrelated to risk aversion, we conclude that simple forms of utilitarianism are not relevant for individual judgment of social risk over health. Last, our investigation of precautionary distribution, which would occur when one particular group in the society suffers from background health risk, shows substantial polarization of preferences.

Stressful working conditions in health care put the well-being of healthcare professionals at risk. This well-being is increasingly being supported by diverse initiatives in the Netherlands. However, these initiatives are dispersed across micro-, meso- and macro-levels and not equally accessible to all health care professionals. A national, integral approach is lacking in which initiatives across levels are more effectively combined. Therefore, we suggest the initiation of a national program "Caring for Healthcare Professionals", which structurally supports the well-being of healthcare professionals. We reflect on science- and practice-based insights from interventions in three domains: (a) workplace management, (b) self-care, and (c) treatment and recovery. We propose to translate the lessons learned in these domains into a national program combining best practices, aiming to structurally support healthcare professionals' well-being.

Background Primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) increasingly relies on monitoring global CVD risk scores. Lack of evidence on socioeconomic inequality in these scores and the contributions that specific risk factors make to this inequality impedes effective targeting of CVD prevention. We aimed to address this evidence gap by measuring and decomposing socioeconomic inequality in CVD risk in the Philippines. Methods We used data on 8462 individuals aged 40–74 years from the Philippines National Nutrition Survey and the laboratory-based Globorisk equation to predict 10-year risk of a CVD event from sex, age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high blood glucose, and smoking. We used a household wealth index to proxy socioeconomic status and measured socioeconomic inequality with a concentration index that we decomposed into contributions of the risk factors used to predict CVD risk. We measured socioeconomic inequalities in these risk factors and decomposed them into contributions of more distal risk factors: body mass index, fat share of energy intake, low physical activity, and drinking alcohol. We stratified by sex. Results Wealthier individuals, particularly males, had greater exposure to all risk factors, with the exception of smoking, and had higher CVD risks. Total cholesterol and high blood glucose accounted for 58% and 34%, respectively, of the socioeconomic inequality in CVD risk among males. For females, the respective estimates were 63% and 69%. Systolic blood pressure accounted for 26% of the higher CVD risk of wealthier males but did not contribute to inequality among females. If smoking prevalence had not been higher among poorer individuals, then the inequality in CVD risk would have been 35% higher for males and 75% higher for females. Among distal risk factors, body mass index and fat intake contributed most to inequalities in total cholesterol, high blood sugar, and, for males, systolic blood pressure. Conclusions Wealthier Filipinos have higher predicted CVD risks and greater exposure to all risk factors, except smoking. There is need for a nuanced approach to CVD prevention that targets anti-smoking programmes on the poorer population while targeting diet and exercise interventions on the wealthier.

ImportanceDifferences in the organization and financing of health systems may produce more or less equitable outcomes for advantaged vs disadvantaged populations. We compared treatments and outcomes of older high- and low-income patients across 6 countries.ObjectiveTo determine whether treatment patterns and outcomes for patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction differ for low- vs high-income individuals across 6 countries.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsSerial cross-sectional cohort study of all adults aged 66 years or older hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction from 2013 through 2018 in the US, Canada, England, the Netherlands, Taiwan, and Israel using population-representative administrative data.ExposuresBeing in the top and bottom quintile of income within and across countries.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThirty-day and 1-year mortality; secondary outcomes included rates of cardiac catheterization and revascularization, length of stay, and readmission rates.ResultsWe studied 289 376 patients hospitalized with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 843 046 hospitalized with non-STEMI (NSTEMI). Adjusted 30-day mortality generally was 1 to 3 percentage points lower for high-income patients. For instance, 30-day mortality among patients admitted with STEMI in the Netherlands was 10.2% for those with high income vs 13.1% for those with low income (difference, −2.8 percentage points [95% CI, −4.1 to −1.5]). One-year mortality differences for STEMI were even larger than 30-day mortality, with the highest difference in Israel (16.2% vs 25.3%; difference, −9.1 percentage points [95% CI, −16.7 to –1.6]). In all countries, rates of cardiac catheterization and percutaneous coronary intervention were higher among high- vs low-income populations, with absolute differences ranging from 1 to 6 percentage points (eg, 73.6% vs 67.4%; difference, 6.1 percentage points [95% CI, 1.2 to 11.0] for percutaneous intervention in England for STEMI). Rates of coronary artery bypass graft surgery for patients with STEMI in low- vs high-income strata were similar but for NSTEMI were generally 1 to 2 percentage points higher among high-income patients (eg, 12.5% vs 11.0% in the US; difference, 1.5 percentage points [95% CI, 1.3 to 1.8 ]). Thirty-day readmission rates generally also were 1 to 3 percentage points lower and hospital length of stay generally was 0.2 to 0.5 days shorter for high-income patients.Conclusions and RelevanceHigh-income individuals had substantially better survival and were more likely to receive lifesaving revascularization and had shorter hospital lengths of stay and fewer readmissions across almost all countries. Our results suggest that income-based disparities were present even in countries with universal health insurance and robust social safety net systems.

ObjectiveTo find a consensus on clinicians’ and patients’ activities that underpin an ideal value-based outpatient specialty consultation, among clinicians.MethodsA three-round online Delphi study was conducted. A purposive sample of nineteen clinicians from a Dutch university hospital judged activities on importance. Consensus was defined at 80% agreement. Activities were thematically analyzed to derive conceptual themes.ResultsThe expert panel agreed on 63 activities as being important for an ideal value-based outpatient specialty consultation and two activities as being unimportant. They failed to reach a consensus on 11 activities. Conceptual themes for activities that were considered important regard: 1) empowerment, 2) patient-reported biopsychosocial outcomes, 3) the patient as a person, 4) the patient’s kin, 5) shared power and responsibility, 6) optimization, 7) coordination, 8) therapeutic relationships, and 9) resource-consciousness.ConclusionA value-based outpatient specialty consultation requires contextual decision-making, is person-centered, and focusses attention on care optimization and intelligent resource allocation. No importance is attributed to healthcare’s societal burden and climate footprint. Disparities existed in various areas including the role of patient reported experience measures, “patient-like-me” data, and healthcare costs.Practice implicationsThis study contributes a toolbox to guide and evaluate clinicians’ and patients’ behaviors in value-based outpatient specialty consultations and reveals opportunities to enhance facilitation.

The introduction of rapid exome sequencing (rES) for critically ill neonates admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit has made it possible to impact clinical decision-making. Unbiased prospective studies to quantify the impact of rES over routine genetic testing are, however, scarce. We performed a clinical utility study to compare rES to conventional genetic diagnostic workup for critically ill neonates with suspected genetic disorders. In a multicenter prospective parallel cohort study involving five Dutch NICUs, we performed rES in parallel to routine genetic testing for 60 neonates with a suspected genetic disorder and monitored diagnostic yield and the time to diagnosis. To assess the economic impact of rES, healthcare resource use was collected for all neonates. rES detected more conclusive genetic diagnoses than routine genetic testing (20% vs. 10%, respectively), in a significantly shorter time to diagnosis (15 days (95% CI 10–20) vs. 59 days (95% CI 23–98, p < 0.001)). Moreover, rES reduced genetic diagnostic costs by 1.5% (€85 per neonate). Conclusion: Our findings demonstrate the clinical utility of rES for critically ill neonates based on increased diagnostic yield, shorter time to diagnosis, and net healthcare savings. Our observations warrant the widespread implementation of rES as first-tier genetic test in critically ill neonates with disorders of suspected genetic origin.What is Known:• Rapid exome sequencing (rES) enables diagnosing rare genetic disorders in a fast and reliable manner, but retrospective studies with neonates admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) indicated that genetic disorders are likely underdiagnosed as rES is not routinely used.• Scenario modeling for implementation of rES for neonates with presumed genetic disorders indicated an expected increase in costs associated with genetic testing.What is New:• This unique prospective national clinical utility study of rES in a NICU setting shows that rES obtained more and faster diagnoses than conventional genetic tests.• Implementation of rES as replacement for all other genetic tests does not increase healthcare costs but in fact leads to a reduction in healthcare costs.

In toenemende mate wordt verwacht dat mantelzorgers een actieve rol spelen in de zorg, ook als hun familielid verhuist naar een zorginstelling. Dit vraagt om samenwerking tussen mantelzorgers, cliënten en professionals. Deze samenwerking gaat niet vanzelf goed. Wat is belangrijk bij het verbeteren van de samenwerking? Dat laten we in dit artikel zien

Statins are effective drugs that can reduce the risk of new cardiovascular events. Although in randomized, placebo-controlled trials statins are associated with a low risk of mild muscle complaints such as myalgia, in daily practice up to 30% of patients report complaints attributed to statin use. Two recent studies have shown statin-associated muscle complaints are mainly related to the nocebo effect. The nocebo effect is a decrease in benefit and/or a new onset or worsening of adverse effects due to an expectation of harm associated with the treatment. Statins face reputational challenges due to a vast amount of negative attention on the internet. We need to address the nocebo effect by managing the perception of statins and provide patients with objective information about statin treatment, reduce the negative expectations, and placing discussion about the likelihood of adverse effects into the context of treatment benefit.

Background: Productivity costs can form a large and influential component of total costs in an economic evaluation taking a societal perspective. In calculating productivity costs, estimating productivity losses is a central element. Compensation mechanisms and multiplier effects may influence these losses but remain understudied. Compensation mechanisms could reduce productivity losses while multiplier effects may increase them. Methods: Data on productivity losses were collected in 2015 using an online survey among a sample of persons aged 15–65 years in The Netherlands who worked at least 12 h per week and reported to have experienced absenteeism and/or presenteeism during the past 4 weeks. A total of 877 respondents completed the survey that contained questions on productivity losses, compensation mechanisms, and multiplier effects. Results: We found that 45.5% of the respondents reported absenteeism (average 6.5 days) during the past 4 weeks, losing on average 48.7 working hours, while presenteeism was experienced by 75.9% of respondents, with an average loss of 10.7 working hours. Compensation mechanisms were reported by 76.9% of respondents, compensating almost 80% of their lost production, while multiplier effects were reported by 23.6% of respondents, reducing the productivity of 4.2 colleagues by 27.8% on average, implying a multiplier of 2.1 in that subgroup. Conclusions: This study highlights that compensation mechanisms and multiplier effects are common and may substantially affect production losses. Investigating these mechanisms and effects further, as well as their interactions, remains important. Translating these findings into productivity cost calculations in economic evaluations is not straightforward and requires attention, especially since compensation mechanisms may not be costless and, for multiplier effects, the value of hours of colleagues may not be similar to that of the person experiencing health problems.

Policy makers need to make decisions regarding the allocation of scarce healthcare resources. We study preferences for investment in additional healthcare capacity and allocation between two regions, focusing on reducing waiting time for elective surgery for a physical health problem. We elicit preferences from a societal and an individual perspective, with unequal initial waiting times between the two regions. In an online survey, 1039 respondents were randomly assigned to one of three versions of the experiment: (1) a social planner perspective, placing respondents in the role of a policy maker; (2) an individual perspective where the respondent's own region was better off regarding initial waiting times; (3) an individual perspective where the individual's own region was worse off regarding initial waiting times. Respondents were asked to rank the status quo and five scenarios where the investment in additional capacity led to different distributions of shorter waiting times between regions. For all allocations we presented both the reduction in waiting time and the resulting final waiting time for both regions. We find that in version 1 of the experiment, preferences were in line with inequality aversion and Rawlsian preferences regarding final waiting time. In version 3, similar preferences were found, although here they also align with individualistic preferences. In version 2, preferences were more heterogeneous, with both individualistic and egalitarian preferences present. Concluding, individualistic and egalitarian preferences mostly concerned final waiting time. We therefore recommend policy makers to focus on the effect on final waiting time instead of the reduction of waiting time.

The original article that was published contains errors in the abstract and result section head. Please find the corrected text with section heading.

In the valuation of EQ-5D-Y-3L, adult respondents are asked to complete composite time trade-off (cTTO) tasks for a 10-year-old child. Earlier work has shown that cTTO utilities elicited in such a child perspective are generally higher than when adults take their own perspective. We explore how differences in time preference in child and adult perspectives could explain this effect. Furthermore, as cTTO valuation in a child perspective involves explicit consideration of immediate death for a child, we also consider how cTTO utilities could be affected by decision-makers lexicographically avoiding death in children. We report the results of an experiment in which 219 respondents valued 5 health states in both adult and child perspectives with either a standard cTTO or a lead-time TTO only approach, in which immediate death is less focal. Time preferences were measured in both perspectives. Our results suggest that utilities were lower when lead-time TTO, rather than cTTO, was used. We find large heterogeneity in time preference in both perspectives, with predominantly negative time preference. The influence of time preferences on utilities, however, was small, and correcting for time preferences did not reduce differences between utilities elicited in both perspectives. Surprisingly, we found more evidence for differences in utilities between adult and child perspectives when lead-time TTO was used. Overall, these results suggest that time and lexicographic preferences affect time trade-off valuation in child and adult perspectives, but are not the explanation for differences between these perspectives. We discuss the implications of our findings for EQ-5D-Y-3L valuation.

Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic has increased mortality worldwide considerably in 2020. Nevertheless, it is unknown how the increase in mortality translates into a loss in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), which is a function of age and the health condition of the deceased patient at time of death. We estimate the QALYs lost in The Netherlands as a result of deaths because of COVID-19 in 2020. Methods: As a starting point, we use estimates of underlying diseases and the number of COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes as a proxy for underlying health status. In a next step, these are combined with estimates of excess mortality rates and quality of life for different groups to calculate QALYs lost. We compare the results with an alternative scenario, in which COVID-19 deaths occurred randomly across the population regardless of underlying conditions. For this alternative scenario, we use population mortality and average quality of life by age and sex. Results: Accounting for underlying health status, we estimate that QALYs lost because of COVID-19 mortality are on average 3.9 per death for men and 3.5 for women. This is approximately 3.5 QALYs less than when not taking selective mortality into account. Given 16 308 excess deaths, this translates into 61 032 QALYs lost because of COVID-19. Conclusions: We conclude that QALYs lost because of COVID-19 mortality are still substantial, even if mortality is strongly concentrated in people with poor health.

Time trade-off utilities have been suggested to be biased upwards. This bias is a result of the method being applied assuming linear utility of life duration, which is violated when individuals discount future life years or are loss averse for health. Applying a “corrective approach”, that is, measuring individuals' discount function and loss aversion and correcting time trade-off utilities for these individual characteristics, may reduce this bias in utilities. Earlier work has developed this approach for time trade-off in a student sample. In this study, the corrective approach was extended to composite time trade-off (cTTO) methodology, which enabled correcting utilities for health states worse than dead. In digital interviews a sample of 150 members of the general public completed cTTO tasks for six health states, and afterward they completed measurements of loss aversion and discounting. cTTO utilities were corrected using these measurements under multiple specifications. Respondents were also asked to reflect on and adjust their cTTO utilities directly. Our results show considerable loss aversion and both positive and negative discounting were prevalent. As predicted, correction generally resulted in lower utilities. This was in accordance with the direction of adjustments made by respondents themselves.

Co‐payments for long‐term care (LTC) can impose a substantial financial burden on the elderly. How this burden is distributed across income groups depends on the design of the co‐payment. We estimate the lifecycle dynamics of LTC using Dutch administrative data. These estimates are inputs in a stochastic lifecycle decision model. Using the model, we analyze the welfare effects of the Dutch income‐ and wealth‐ dependent co‐payment system and compare it to alternative systems. We find that the Dutch co‐payment system redistributes income to low‐income groups, who use the most care over their life but contribute the least co‐payments, from high‐income groups, who pay the most. Moreover, the Dutch system protects the middle‐income groups relatively well against financial risk: although alternative co‐payment systems hardly affect these groups average payments, they induce welfare losses of 2% to 4% due to an increased risk of very high co‐payments.

Information on attitudes to risk could increase understanding of and explain risky health behaviors. We investigate two approaches to eliciting risk preferences in the health domain, a novel “indirect” lottery elicitation approach with health states as outcomes and a “direct” approach where respondents are asked directly about their willingness to take risks. We compare the ability of the two approaches to predict health-related risky behaviors in a general adult population. We also investigate a potential framing effect in the indirect lottery elicitation approach. We find that risk preferences elicited using the direct approach can better predict health-related risky behavior than those elicited using the indirect approach. Moreover, a seemingly innocuous change to the framing of the lottery question results in significantly different risk preference estimates, and conflicting conclusions about the ability of the indicators to predict risky health behaviors.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the need for effective infectious disease outbreak prevention. This could entail installing an integrated, international early warning system, aiming to contain and mitigate infectious diseases outbreaks. The amount of resources governments should spend on such preventive measures can be informed by the value citizens attach to such a system. This was already recognized in 2018, when a contingent valuation willingness to pay (WTP) experiment was fielded, eliciting the WTP for such a system in six European countries. We replicated that experiment in the spring of 2020 to test whether and how WTP had changed during an actual pandemic (COVID-19), taking into account differences in infection rates and stringency of measures by government between countries. Overall, we found significant increases in WTP between the two time points, with mean WTP for an early warning system increasing by about 50% (median 30%), from around €20 to €30 per month. However, there were marked differences between countries and subpopulations, and changes were only partially explained by COVID-19 burden. We discuss possible explanations for and implication of our findings. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10198-021-01353-6.

Identifying sources of inaccuracy in probability judgments can help correct decision errors. We combine the lens model with the Brier Score to decompose this measure of inaccuracy into (a) difficulty of judgment task, (b) outcome predictability, (c) bias, (d) inappropriate weighting of cues, (e) private information, and (f) noise. Private information refers to discriminatory power of judgments uncorrelated with observable, modeled cues. Its identification can be particularly valuable to explain inaccuracy of laypersons’ judgments about personal events, and to gauge the knowledge of experts predicting impersonal events. We illustrate this new decomposition by using it to explain the accuracy of professional forecasters in predicting economic recession and the grossly inaccurate judgments of older Americans about their longevity. In both applications, judgment difficulty makes the largest contributions to inaccuracy and its variation, although this is partially offset by outcome predictability. Inappropri-ate weighting of cues is substantial and helps explain heterogeneity in inaccuracy. In the longevity application, low discriminatory power of the judgments is partly due to insufficient responsiveness to mortality risk factors, particularly among the least educated. In both applications, noise in judgment residuals (net of predictions from cues) is an important source of inaccuracy and its variation. This noise is partially offset by nonnegligible (private) information these residuals contain on the outcome

Background Costs of informal care are ignored in many cost-efectiveness analyses (CEAs) conducted from a societal perspective; however, these costs are relevant for lifesaving interventions targeted at the older population. In this study, weestimated informal care costs by age and proximity to death across European regions and showed how these estimates can be included in CEAs.Methods We estimated informal care costs by age and proximity to death using generalised linear mixed-efects models. For this, we selected deceased singles from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement, which we grouped by four European regions. We combined the estimates of informal care costs with life tables to illustrate the impact of including informal care costs on the incremental cost-efectiveness ratio (ICER) of a hypothetical intervention that prevents a death at different ages.Results Informal care use, and hence informal care costs, increase when approaching death and with increasing age. The impact of including informal care costs on the ICER varies between €200 and €17,700 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. The impact increases with age and is stronger for women and in southern European countries.Conclusion Our estimates of informal care costs facilitate including informal care costs in CEAs of life-extending healthcare interventions. Including these costs may infuence decisions as it leads to reranking of life-extending interventions compared with interventions improving quality of life.