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Long-term analyses of biodiversity data highlight a ‘biodiversity conservation paradox’: biological communities show substantial species turnover over the past century1,2, but changes in species richness are marginal1,3,4,5. Most studies, however, have focused only on the incidence of species, and have not considered changes in local abundance. Here we asked whether analysing changes in the cover of plant species could reveal previously unrecognized patterns of biodiversity change and provide insights into the underlying mechanisms. We compiled and analysed a dataset of 7,738 permanent and semi-permanent vegetation plots from Germany that were surveyed between 2 and 54 times from 1927 to 2020, in total comprising 1,794 species of vascular plants. We found that decrements in cover, averaged across all species and plots, occurred more often than increments; that the number of species that decreased in cover was higher than the number of species that increased; and that decrements were more equally distributed among losers than were gains among winners. Null model simulations confirmed that these trends do not emerge by chance, but are the consequence of species-specific negative effects of environmental changes. In the long run, these trends might result in substantial losses of species at both local and regional scales. Summarizing the changes by decade shows that the inequality in the mean change in species cover of losers and winners diverged as early as the 1960s. We conclude that changes in species cover in communities represent an important but understudied dimension of biodiversity change that should more routinely be considered in time-series analyses.

Vegetation-plot resurvey data are a main source of information on terrestrial biodiversity change, with records reaching back more than one century. Although more and more data from re-sampled plots have been published, there is not yet a comprehensive open-access dataset available for analysis. Here, we compiled and harmonised vegetation-plot resurvey data from Germany covering almost 100 years. We show the distribution of the plot data in space, time and across habitat types of the European Nature Information System (EUNIS). In addition, we include metadata on geographic location, plot size and vegetation structure. The data allow temporal biodiversity change to be assessed at the community scale, reaching back further into the past than most comparable data yet available. They also enable tracking changes in the incidence and distribution of individual species across Germany. In summary, the data come at a level of detail that holds promise for broadening our understanding of the mechanisms and drivers behind plant diversity change over the last century.

Long-term analyses of biodiversity data highlight a ‘biodiversity conservation paradox’: biological communities show substantial species turnover over the past century1,2, but changes in species richness are marginal1,3,4,5. Most studies, however, have focused only on the incidence of species, and have not considered changes in local abundance. Here we asked whether analysing changes in the cover of plant species could reveal previously unrecognized patterns of biodiversity change and provide insights into the underlying mechanisms. We compiled and analysed a dataset of 7,738 permanent and semi-permanent vegetation plots from Germany that were surveyed between 2 and 54 times from 1927 to 2020, in total comprising 1,794 species of vascular plants. We found that decrements in cover, averaged across all species and plots, occurred more often than increments; that the number of species that decreased in cover was higher than the number of species that increased; and that decrements were more equally distributed among losers than were gains among winners. Null model simulations confirmed that these trends do not emerge by chance, but are the consequence of species-specific negative effects of environmental changes. In the long run, these trends might result in substantial losses of species at both local and regional scales. Summarizing the changes by decade shows that the inequality in the mean change in species cover of losers and winners diverged as early as the 1960s. We conclude that changes in species cover in communities represent an important but understudied dimension of biodiversity change that should more routinely be considered in time-series analyses.

Elevated atmospheric input of nitrogen (N) is currently affecting plant biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. The growth and survival of numerous plant species is known to respond strongly to N fertilisation. Yet, few studies have assessed the effects of N deposition on seed quality and reproductive performance, which is an important life-history stage of plants. Here we address this knowledge gap by assessing the effects of atmospheric N deposition on seed quality of the ancient forest herb Anemone nemorosa using two complementary approaches. By taking advantage of the wide spatiotemporal variation in N deposition rates in pan-European temperate and boreal forests over 2years, we detected positive effects of N deposition on the N concentration (percentage N per unit seed mass, increased from 2.8% to 4.1%) and N content (total N mass per seed more than doubled) of A.nemorosa seeds. In a complementary experiment, we applied ammonium nitrate to aboveground plant tissues and the soil surface to determine whether dissolved N sources in precipitation could be incorporated into seeds. Although the addition of N to leaves and the soil surface had no effect, a concentrated N solution applied to petals during anthesis resulted in increased seed mass, seed N concentration and N content. Our results demonstrate that N deposition on the petals enhances bioaccumulation of N in the seeds of A.nemorosa. Enhanced atmospheric inputs of N can thus not only affect growth and population dynamics via root or canopy uptake, but can also influence seed quality and reproduction via intake through the inflorescences.

Question: Below-ground processes are key determinants of above-ground plant population and community dynamics. Still, our understanding of how environmental drivers shape plant communities is mostly based on above-ground diversity patterns, bypassing below-ground plant diversity stored in seed banks. As seed banks may shape above-ground plant communities, we question whether concurrently analysing the above- and below-ground species assemblages may potentially enhance our understanding of community responses to environmental variation. Location: Temperate deciduous forests along a 2000 km latitudinal gradient in NW Europe. Methods: Herb layer, seed bank and local environmental data including soil pH, canopy cover, forest cover continuity and time since last canopy disturbance were collected in 129 temperate deciduous forest plots. We quantified herb layer and seed bank diversity per plot and evaluated how environmental variation structured community diversity in the herb layer, seed bank and the combined herb layer–seed bank community. Results: Seed banks consistently held more plant species than the herb layer. How local plot diversity was partitioned across the herb layer and seed bank was mediated by environmental variation in drivers serving as proxies of light availability. The herb layer and seed bank contained an ever smaller and ever larger share of local diversity, respectively, as both canopy cover and time since last canopy disturbance decreased. Species richness and β-diversity of the combined herb layer–seed bank community responded distinctly differently compared to the separate assemblages in response to environmental variation in, e.g. forest cover continuity and canopy cover. Conclusions: The seed bank is a below-ground diversity reservoir of the herbaceous forest community, which interacts with the herb layer, although constrained by environmental variation in e.g. light availability. The herb layer and seed bank co-exist as a single community by m

Ecological niches of organisms vary across geographical space, but niche shift patterns between regions and the underlying mechanisms remain largely unexplored. We studied shifts in the pH niche of 42 temperate forest plant species across a latitudinal gradient from northern France to boreo-nemoral Sweden. We asked 1) whether species restrict their niches with increasing latitude as they reach their northern range margin (environmental constraints); 2) whether species expand their niches with increasing latitude as regional plant species richness decreases (competitive release); and 3) whether species shift their niche position toward more acidic sites with increasing latitude as the relative proportion of acidic soils increases (local adaptation). Based on 1458 vegetation plots and corresponding soil pH values, we modelled species response curves using Huisman-Olff-Fresco models. Four niche measures (width, position, left and right border) were compared among regions by randomization tests. We found that with increasing latitude, neutrophilic species tended to retreat from acidic sites, indicating that these species retreat to more favorable sites when approaching their range margin. Alternatively, these species might benefit from enhanced nitrogen deposition on formerly nutrient-poor, acidic sites in southern regions or lag behind in post-glacial recolonization of potential habitats in northern regions. Most acidophilic species extended their niche toward more base-rich sites with increasing latitude, indicating competitive release from neutrophilic species. Alternatively, acidophilic species might benefit from optimal climatic conditions in the north where some have their core distribution area. Shifts in the niche position suggested that local adaptation is of minor importance. We conclude that shifts in the pH niche of temperate forest plants are the rule, but the directions of the niche shifts and possible explanations vary. Our study demonstrates that differe

Climate change is acting on several aspects of plant life cycles, including the sexual reproductive stage, which is considered amongst the most sensitive life-cycle phases. In temperate forests, it is expected that climate change will lead to a compositional change in community structure due to changes in the dominance of currently more abundant forest tree species. Increasing our understanding of the effects of climate change on currently secondary tree species recruitment is therefore important to better understand and forecast population and community dynamics in forests. Here, we analyse the interactive effects of rising temperatures and soil moisture reduction on germination, seedling survival and early growth of two important secondary European tree species, Acer pseudoplatanus and A.platanoides. Additionally, we analyse the effect of the temperature experienced by the mother tree during seed production by collecting seeds of both species along a 2200-km long latitudinal gradient. For most of the responses, A.platanoides showed higher sensitivity to the treatments applied, and especially to its joint manipulation, which for some variables resulted in additive effects while for others only partial compensation. In both species, germination and survival decreased with rising temperatures and/or soil moisture reduction while early growth decreased with declining soil moisture content. We conclude that although A.platanoides germination and survival were more affected after the applied treatments, its initial higher germination and larger seedlings might allow this species to be relatively more successful than A.pseudoplatanus in the face of climate change., AuthorCount:16

Climate projections indicate that temperatures will increase by up to 4.5 degrees C in Europe by the end of this century, and that more extreme rainfall events and longer intervening dry periods will take place. Climate change will likely affect all phases of the life cycle of plants, but plant reproduction has been suggested to be especially sensitive. Here, using a combination of approaches (soil heaters and different provenances along a latitudinal gradient), we analyzed the regeneration from seeds of Acer platanoides and A. pseudoplatanus, two tree species considered, from a management point of view, of secondary relevance. We studied germination, seedling survival and growth in a full-factorial experiment including warming and changes in watering frequency. Both species responded to warming, watering frequency and seed provenance, with stronger (negative) effects of warming and provenance than of watering frequency. In general, the central provenances performed better than the northernmost and southern-most provenances. We also detected interactive effects between warming, watering frequency and/or seed provenance. Based on these results, both species are expected to show dissimilar responses to the changes in the studied climatic factors, but also the impacts of climate change on the different phases of plant regeneration may differ in direction and magnitude. In general increases in the precipitation, frequency will stimulate germination while warming will reduce survival and growth. Moreover, the frequent divergent responses of seedlings along the latitudinal gradient suggest that climate change will likely have heterogeneous impacts across Europe, with stronger impacts in the northern and southern parts of the species' distribution ranges.

Changing temperature and precipitation can strongly influence plant reproduction. However, also biotic interactions might indirectly affect the reproduction and recruitment success of plants in the context of climate change. Information about the interactive effects of changes in abiotic and biotic factors is essential, but still largely lacking, to better understand the potential effects of a changing climate on plant populations. Here we analyze the regeneration from seeds of Acer platanoides and Acer pseudoplatanus, two currently secondary forest tree species from seven regions along a 2200 km-wide latitudinal gradient in Europe. We assessed the germination, seedling survival and growth during two years in a common garden experiment where temperature, precipitation and competition with the understory vegetation were manipulated. A. platanoides was more sensitive to changes in biotic conditions while A. pseudoplatanus was affected by both abiotic and biotic changes. In general, competition reduced (in A. platanoides) and warming enhanced (in A. pseudoplatanus) germination and survival, respectively. Reduced competition strongly increased the growth of A. platanoides seedlings. Seedling responses were independent of the conditions experienced by the mother tree during seed production and maturation. Our results indicate that, due to the negative effects of competition on the regeneration of A. platanoides, it is likely that under stronger competition (projected under future climatic conditions) this species will be negatively affected in terms of germination, survival and seedling biomass. Climate-change experiments including both abiotic and biotic factors constitute a key step forward to better understand the response of tree species' regeneration to climate change., AuthorCount:16

The nutrient concentration in seeds determines many aspects of potential success of the sexual reproductive phase of plants, including the seed predation probability, efficiency of seed dispersal and seedling performance. Despite considerable research interest in latitudinal gradients of foliar nutrients, a similar gradient for seeds remains unexplored. We investigated a potential latitudinal gradient in seed nutrient concentrations within the widespread European understorey forest herb Anemone nemorosa L. We sampled seeds of A. nemorosa in 15 populations along a 1900-km long latitudinal gradient at three to seven seed collection dates post-anthesis and investigated the relative effects of growing degree-hours > 5 degrees C, soil characteristics and latitude on seed nutrient concentrations. Seed nitrogen, nitrogen:phosphorus ratio and calcium concentration decreased towards northern latitudes, while carbon:nitrogen ratios increased. When taking differences in growing degree-hours and measured soil characteristics into account and only considering the most mature seeds, the latitudinal decline remained particularly significant for seed nitrogen concentration. We argue that the decline in seed nitrogen concentration can be attributed to northward decreasing seed provisioning due to lower soil nitrogen availability or greater investment in clonal reproduction. This pattern may have large implications for the reproductive performance of this forest herb as the degree of seed provisioning ultimately co-determines seedling survival and reproductive success., authorCount :19

Climate warming is already influencing plant migration in different parts of the world. Numerous models have been developed to forecast future plant distributions. Few studies, however, have investigated the potential effect of warming on the reproductive output of plants. Understorey forest herbs in particular, have received little attention in the debate on climate change impacts. This study focuses on the effect of temperature on sexual reproductive output (number of seeds, seed mass, germination percentage and seedling mass) of Anemone nemorosa L., a model species for slow colonizing herbaceous forest plants. We sampled seeds of A. nemorosa in populations along a 2400 km latitudinal gradient from northern France to northern Sweden during three growing seasons (2005, 2006 and 2008). This study design allowed us to isolate the effects of accumulated temperature (Growing Degree Hours; GDH) from latitude and the local abiotic and biotic environment. Germination and seed sowing trials were performed in incubators, a greenhouse and under field conditions in a forest. Finally, we disentangled correlations between the different reproductive traits of A. nemorosa along the latitudinal gradient. We found a clear positive relationship between accumulated temperature and seed and seedling traits: reproductive output of A. nemorosa improved with increasing GDH along the latitudinal gradient. Seed mass and seedling mass, for instance, increased by 9.7% and 10.4%, respectively, for every 1000 °C h increase in GDH. We also derived strong correlations between several seed and seedling traits both under field conditions and in incubators. Our results indicate that seed mass, incubator-based germination percentage (Germ%Inc) and the output of germinable seeds (product of number of seeds and Germ%Inc divided by 100) from plants grown along a latitudinal gradient (i.e. at different temperature regimes) provide valuable proxies to parameterize key population processes in models. We c

Predictions on displacement of suitable habitats due to climate change suggest that plant species with poor colonization ability may be unable to move fast enough to match forecasted climate-induced changes in habitat distribution. However, studies on early Holocene plant migration show fast migration of many plant species that are poor colonizers today We hypothesize that warmer temperatures during the early Holocene yielded higher seed quality, contributing to explaining the fast migration. We studied how the 3 seed quality variables, seed mass, germinability, and requirements for break of seed dormancy, vary for seeds of 11 forest herb species with varying colonization capacity collected along a 1400-km latitudinal gradient. Within species, seed mass showed a positive correlation with latitude, whereas germinability was more positively correlated with temperature (growing degree hours obtained at time of seed collection). Only slow-colonizing species increased germinability with temperature, whereas only fast-colonizing species increased germinability with latitude. These interactions were only detectable when analyzing germinability of the seeds, even though this trait and seed mass were correlated. The requirement for dormancy break did not correlate with latitude or temperature. The results indicate that seed development of slow colonizers may be favoured by a warmer climate, which in turn may be important for their migration capacity.

Aim To investigate the effect of temperature, latitude and local environment on the reproductive traits of widespread perennial forest herbs to better understand the potential impacts of rising temperatures on their population dynamics and colonization capacities. Location Six regions along a latitudinal gradient from France to Sweden. Methods Within each region, we collected data from three to five populations of up to six species. For each species, several variables were recorded in each region (temperature, latitude) and population (local abiotic and biotic environmental variables), and seed production and germination were estimated. Resource investment in reproduction (RIR) was quantified as seed number × seed mass, while germinable seed output (GSO) was expressed as seed number × germination percentage. We performed linear regression and mixed effect models to investigate the effects of temperature (growing degree hours), latitude and local abiotic and biotic environment on RIR and GSO. Results Temperature and latitude explained most of the variation in RIR and GSO for early flowering species with a northerly distribution range edge (Anemone nemorosa, Paris quadrifolia and Oxalis acetosella). Reproduction of the more southerly distributed species (Brachypodium sylvaticum, Circaea lutetiana and Primula elatior), in contrast, was independent of temperature/latitude. In the late summer species, B. sylvaticum and C. lutetiana, variation in RIR and GSO was best explained by local environmental variables, while none of the investigated variables appeared to be related to reproduction in P. elatior. Main conclusions We showed that reproduction of only two early flowering, northerly distributed species was related to temperature. This suggests that the potential reproductive response of forest herbs to climate warming partly depends on their phenology and distribution, but also that the response is to some extent species dependent. These findings should be taken into a

Myrmecochory, i.e. dispersal of seeds by ants towards and around their nests, plays an important role in temperate forests. Yet hardly any study has examined plant population spread over several years and the underlying joint contribution of a hierarchy of dispersal modes and plant demography. We used a seed-sowing approach with three replicates to examine colonization patterns of Melampyrum pratense, an annual myrmecochorous herb, in a mixed Scots pine forest in north-eastern Germany. Using a spatially explicit individual-based (SEIB) model population patterns over 4 years were explained by short-distance transport of seeds by small ant species with high nest densities, resulting in random spread. However, plant distributions in the field after another 4 years were clearly deviating from model predictions. Mean annual spread rate increased from 0.9 to 5.1 m per year, with a clear inhomogeneous component. Obviously, after a lag-phase of several years, non-random seed dispersal by large red wood ants (Formica rufa) was determining the species' spread, thus resulting in stratified dispersal due to interactions with different-sized ant species. Hypotheses on stratified dispersal, on dispersal lag, and on non-random dispersal were verified using an extended SEIB model, by comparison of model outputs with field patterns (individual numbers, population areas, and maximum distances). Dispersal towards red wood ant nests together with seed loss during transport and redistribution around nests were essential features of the model extension. The observed lag-phase in the initiation of non-random, medium-distance transport was probably due to a change of ant behaviour towards a new food source of increasing importance, being a meaningful example for a lag-phase in local plant species invasion. The results demonstrate that field studies should check model predictions wherever possible. Future research will show whether or not the M. pratense-ant system is representative for mig

The paper presents a simulation and parameter-estimation approach for evaluating stochastic patterns of population growth and spread of an annual forest herb, Melampyrum pratense (Orobanchaceae). The survival of a species during large-scale changes in land use and climate will depend, to a considerable extent, on its dispersal and colonisation abilities. Predictions on species migration need a combination of field studies and modelling efforts. Our study on the ability of M. pratense to disperse into so far unoccupied areas is based on experiments in secondary woodland in NE Germany. Experiments started in 1997 at three sites where the species was not yet present, with 300 seeds sown within 1 m2. Population development was then recorded until 2001 by mapping of individuals with a resolution of 5 cm. Additional observations considered density dependence of seed production. We designed a spatially explicit individual-based computer simulation model to explain the spatial patterns of population development and to predict future population spread. Besides primary drop of seeds (barochory) it assumed secondary seed transport by ants (myrmecochory) with an exponentially decreasing dispersal tail. An important feature of population-pattern explanation was the simultaneous estimation of both population-growth and dispersal parameters from consistent spatio-temporal data sets. As the simulation model produced stochastic time series and random spatially discrete distributions of individuals we estimated parameters by minimising the expectation of weighted sum of squares. These sums of squares criteria considered population sizes, radial population distributions around the area of origin and distributions of individuals within squares of 25 cm × 25 cm, the range of density action. Optimal parameter values, together with the precision of the estimates, were obtained from calculating sum of squares in regular grids of parameter values. Our modelling results showed that transport

Species turnover is ubiquitous. However, it remains unknown whether certain types of species are consistently gained or lost across different habitats. Here, we analysed the trajectories of 1827 plant species over time intervals of up to 78 years at 141 sites across mountain summits, forests, and lowland grasslands in Europe. We found, albeit with relatively small effect sizes, displacements of smaller- by larger-ranged species across habitats. Communities shifted in parallel towards more nutrient-demanding species, with species from nutrient-rich habitats having larger ranges. Because these species are typically strong competitors, declines of smaller-ranged species could reflect not only abiotic drivers of global change, but also biotic pressure from increased competition. The ubiquitous component of turnover based on species range size we found here may partially reconcile findings of no net loss in local diversity with global species loss, and link community-scale turnover to macroecological processes such as biotic homogenisation.