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3. Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).

Author

Bernier, Natacha B., Hemer, Mark, Mori, Nobuhito, Appendini, Christian M., Breivik, Oyvind, de Camargo, Ricardo, Casas-Prat, Mercè, Duong, Trang Minh, Haigh, Ivan D., Howard, Tom, Hernaman, Vanessa, Huizy, Oleksandr, Irish, Jennifer L., Kirezci, Ebru, Kohno, Nadao, Lee, Jun-Whan, McInnes, Kathleen L., Meyer, Elke M.I., Marcos, Marta, Marsooli, Reza, Martin Oliva, Ariadna, Menendez, Melisa, Moghimi, Saeed, Muis, Sanne, Polton, Jeff A., Pringle, William J., Ranasinghe, Roshanka, Saillour, Thomas, Smith, Grant, Tadesse, Michael Getachew, Swail, Val, Tomoya, Shimura, Voukouvalas, Evangelos, Wahl, Thomas, Wang, Pengcheng, Weisse, Ralf, Westerink, Joannes J., Young, Ian, and Zhang, Y. Joseph

Published
2024
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4. Impacts of the Cryosphere and Atmosphere on Observed Microseisms Generated in the Southern Ocean

Author

Turner, Ross J., Gal, Martin, Hemer, Mark A., and Reading, Anya M.

Subjects
Physics - Geophysics
Abstract

The Southern Ocean (in the region 60-180$^\circ$E) south of the Indian Ocean, Australia, and the West Pacific is noted for the frequent occurrence and severity of its storms. These storms give rise to high-amplitude secondary microseisms from sources, including the deep ocean regions, and primary microseisms where the swells impinge on submarine topographic features. A better understanding of the varying microseism wavefield enables improvements to seismic imaging and development of proxy observables to complement sparse in situ wave observations and hindcast models of the global ocean wave climate. We analyze 12-26 years of seismic data from 11 seismic stations either on the East Antarctic coast or sited in the Indian Ocean, Australia, and New Zealand. The power spectral density of the seismic wavefield is calculated to explore how the time-changing microseism intensity varies with (i) sea ice coverage surrounding Antarctica and (ii) the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) climate index. Variations in sea ice extent are found to be the dominant control on the microseism intensity at Antarctic stations, which exhibit a seasonal pattern phase-shifted by 4-5 months compared to stations in other continents. Peaks in extremal intensity at East Antarctic stations occur in March-April, with the highest peaks for secondary microseisms occurring during negative SAM events. This relationship between microseism intensity and the SAM index is opposite to that observed on the Antarctic Peninsula. This work informs the complexity of microseism amplitudes in the Southern Hemisphere and assists ongoing interdisciplinary investigations of interannual variability and long-term trends., Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables; published in JGR Earth Surface

Published
2021
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5. Coastal Development: Resilience, Restoration and Infrastructure Requirements

Author

Steven, Andy, Addo, Kwasi Appeaning, Llewellyn, Ghislaine, Ca, Vu Thanh, Boateng, Isaac, Bustamante, Rodrigo, Doropoulos, Christopher, Gillies, Chris, Hemer, Mark, Lopes, Priscila, Kairo, James, Rahman, Munsur, Ravaoarinorotsihoarana, Lalao Aigrette, Saunders, Megan, Sumaila, U. Rashid, Sidik, Frida, Teh, Louise, Vanderklift, Mat, Vozzo, Maria, Lubchenco, Jane, editor, and Haugan, Peter M., editor

Published
2023
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7. The Ocean as a Solution to Climate Change: Five Opportunities for Action

Author

Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove, Caldeira, Ken, Chopin, Thierry, Gaines, Steve, Haugan, Peter, Hemer, Mark, Howard, Jennifer, Konar, Manaswita, Krause-Jensen, Dorte, Lovelock, Catherine E., Lindstad, Elizabeth, Michelin, Mark, Nielsen, Finn Gunnar, Northrop, Eliza, Parker, Robert W. R., Roy, Joyashree, Smith, Tristan, Some, Shreya, Tyedmers, Peter, Lubchenco, Jane, editor, and Haugan, Peter M., editor

Published
2023
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12. A global ensemble of ocean wave climate projections from CMIP5-driven models.

Author

Morim, Joao, Trenham, Claire, Hemer, Mark, Wang, Xiaolan L, Mori, Nobuhito, Casas-Prat, Mercè, Semedo, Alvaro, Shimura, Tomoya, Timmermans, Ben, Camus, Paula, Bricheno, Lucy, Mentaschi, Lorenzo, Dobrynin, Mikhail, Feng, Yang, and Erikson, Li

Abstract

This dataset, produced through the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP) phase 2, represents the first coordinated multivariate ensemble of 21st Century global wind-wave climate projections available (henceforth COWCLIP2.0). COWCLIP2.0 comprises general and extreme statistics of significant wave height (HS), mean wave period (Tm), and mean wave direction (θm) computed over time-slices 1979-2004 and 2081-2100, at different frequency resolutions (monthly, seasonally and annually). The full ensemble comprising 155 global wave climate simulations is obtained from ten CMIP5-based state-of-the-art wave climate studies and provides data derived from alternative wind-wave downscaling methods, and different climate-model forcing and future emissions scenarios. The data has been produced, and processed, under a specific framework for consistency and quality, and follows CMIP5 Data Reference Syntax, Directory structures, and Metadata requirements. Technical comparison of model skill against 26 years of global satellite measurements of significant wave height has been undertaken at global and regional scales. This new dataset provides support for future broad scale coastal hazard and vulnerability assessments and climate adaptation studies in many offshore and coastal engineering applications.

Published
2020

13. Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Author

Morim, Joao, Hemer, Mark, Wang, Xiaolan L, Cartwright, Nick, Trenham, Claire, Semedo, Alvaro, Young, Ian, Bricheno, Lucy, Camus, Paula, Casas-Prat, Mercè, Erikson, Li, Mentaschi, Lorenzo, Mori, Nobuhito, Shimura, Tomoya, Timmermans, Ben, Aarnes, Ole, Breivik, Øyvind, Behrens, Arno, Dobrynin, Mikhail, Menendez, Melisa, Staneva, Joanna, Wehner, Michael, Wolf, Judith, Kamranzad, Bahareh, Webb, Adrean, Stopa, Justin, and Andutta, Fernando

Subjects
Climate Action, Atmospheric Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Environmental Science and Management
Abstract

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.

Published
2019

18. Priorities for Wind-Waves Research

Author

Greenslade, Diana, Hemer, Mark, Babanin, Alex, Lowe, Ryan, Turner, Ian, Power, Hannah, Young, Ian, Ierodiaconou, Daniel, Hibbert, Greg, Williams, Greg, Aijaz, Saima, Albuquerque, João, Allen, Stewart, Banner, Michael, Branson, Paul, Buchan, Steve, Burton, Andrew, Bye, John, Cartwright, Nick, Chabchoub, Amin, Colberg, Frank, Contardo, Stephanie, Dufois, Francois, Earl-Spurr, Craig, Farr, David, Goodwin, Ian, Gunson, Jim, Hansen, Jeff, Hanslow, David, Harley, Mitchell, Hetzel, Yasha, Hoeke, Ron, Jones, Nicole, Kinsela, Michael, Liu, Qingxiang, Makarynskyy, Oleg, Marcollo, Hayden, Mazaheri, Said, McConochie, Jason, Millar, Grant, Moltmann, Tim, Moodie, Neal, Morim, Joao, Morison, Russel, Orszaghova, Jana, Pattiaratchi, Charitha, Pomeroy, Andrew, Proctor, Roger, Provis, David, Reef, Ruth, Rijnsdorp, Dirk, Rutherford, Martin, Schulz, Eric, Shayer, Jake, Splinter, Kristen, Steinberg, Craig, Strauss, Darrell, Stuart, Greg, Symonds, Graham, Tarbath, Karina, Taylor, Daniel, Taylor, James, Thotagamuwage, Darshani, Toffoli, Alessandro, Valizadeh, Alireza, van Hazel, Jonathan, da Silva, Guilherme Vieira, Wandres, Moritz, Whittaker, Colin, Williams, David, Winter, Gundula, Xu, Jiangtao, Zhong, Aihong, and Zieger, Stefan

Published
2020

19. 15 Priorities for Wind-Waves Research : An Australian Perspective

Author

Greenslade, Diana, Hemer, Mark, Babanin, Alex, Lowe, Ryan, Turner, Ian, Power, Hannah, Young, Ian, Ierodiaconou, Daniel, Hibbert, Greg, Williams, Greg, Aijaz, Saima, Albuquerque, João, Allen, Stewart, Banner, Michael, Branson, Paul, Buchan, Steve, Burton, Andrew, Bye, John, Cartwright, Nick, Chabchoub, Amin, Colberg, Frank, Contardo, Stephanie, Dufois, Francois, Earl-Spurr, Craig, Farr, David, Goodwin, Ian, Gunson, Jim, Hansen, Jeff, Hanslow, David, Harley, Mitchell, Hetzel, Yasha, Hoeke, Ron, Jones, Nicole, Kinsela, Michael, Liu, Qingxiang, Makarynskyy, Oleg, Marcollo, Hayden, Mazaheri, Said, McConochie, Jason, Millar, Grant, Moltmann, Tim, Moodie, Neal, Morim, Joao, Morison, Russel, Orszaghova, Jana, Pattiaratchi, Charitha, Pomeroy, Andrew, Proctor, Roger, Provis, David, Reef, Ruth, Rijnsdorp, Dirk, Rutherford, Martin, Schulz, Eric, Shayer, Jake, Splinter, Kristen, Steinberg, Craig, Strauss, Darrell, Stuart, Greg, Symonds, Graham, Tarbath, Karina, Taylor, Daniel, Taylor, James, Thotagamuwage, Darshani, Toffoli, Alessandro, Valizadeh, Alireza, van Hazel, Jonathan, da Silva, Guilherme Vieira, Wandres, Moritz, Whittaker, Colin, Williams, David, Winter, Gundula, Xu, Jiangtao, Zhong, Aihong, and Zieger, Stefan

Published
2020

22. Traversing the land‐sea interface: A climate change risk assessment of terrestrially breeding marine predators.

Author

Sojitra, Milan, Corney, Stuart, Hemer, Mark, Hamilton, Sheryl, McInnes, Julie, Thalmann, Sam, and Lea, Mary‐Anne

Subjects
CLIMATE change adaptation, RISK assessment of climate change, PREDATORY aquatic animals, COLONIES (Biology), EXTREME weather
Abstract

Terrestrially breeding marine predators have experienced shifts in species distribution, prey availability, breeding phenology, and population dynamics due to climate change worldwide. These central‐place foragers are restricted within proximity of their breeding colonies during the breeding season, making them highly susceptible to any changes in both marine and terrestrial environments. While ecologists have developed risk assessments to evaluate climate risk in various contexts, these often overlook critical breeding biology data. To address this knowledge gap, we developed a trait‐based risk assessment framework, focusing on the breeding season and applying it to marine predators breeding in parts of Australian territory and Antarctica. Our objectives were to quantify climate change risk, identify specific threats, and establish an adaptable assessment framework. The assessment considered 25 criteria related to three risk components: vulnerability, exposure, and hazard, while accounting for uncertainty. We employed a scoring system that integrated a systematic literature review and expert elicitation for the hazard criteria. Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify key factors contributing to overall risk. We identified shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta), southern rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome), Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), and Australian sea lions (Neophoca cinerea) with high climate urgency. Species breeding in lower latitudes, as well as certain eared seal, albatross, and penguin species, were particularly at risk. Hazard and exposure explained the most variation in relative risk, outweighing vulnerability. Key climate hazards affecting most species include extreme weather events, changes in habitat suitability, and prey availability. We emphasise the need for further research, focusing on at‐risk species, and filling knowledge gaps (less‐studied hazards, and/or species) to provide a more accurate and robust climate change risk assessment. Our findings offer valuable insights for conservation efforts, given that monitoring and implementing climate adaptation strategies for land‐dependent marine predators is more feasible during their breeding season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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40. Longshore sediment transport variability changes by the end of the 21st century.

Author

Vieira da Silva, Guilherme, Strauss, Darrell, Murray, Thomas, Alvarez, Fernando, Hemer, Mark, and Meucci, Alberto

Subjects
SEDIMENT transport, COASTAL engineering, COASTAL ecology, COASTS
Abstract

Projections of wave climate for the Gold Coast, Queensland suggest a reduction in wave height combined with an anticlockwise shift in wave direction which may lead to an overall local reduction in longshore sediment transport (LST). Understanding changes in LST variability into the future is crucial to better manage the coastline and prepare for future adaptation pathways. The aim of this paper is to analyse the variability of LST at the end of the 21st century and the implications it may have on coastal management. To do so, a benchmark model was established to assess the LST along the entire coast by using a Delft3D model, where boundary conditions are derived from a global wave hindcast forced with the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The Delft3D model was calibrated using the pumping rates of an artificial sand bypassing system at the northern Gold Coast for three representative years encompassing: low (2004), average (2001) and high (2003) LST rates. Then a hybrid wave downscaling technique was applied to obtain the wave data at the breaking point at three locations along the coast where the Coastal Engineering Research Center (CERC) equation was calibrated based on the benchmark model. Finally, future wave climate scenarios (Contributions to the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project, COWCliP) derived from CMIP5 (seven GCMs) and CMIP6 (two GCMs) were bias-corrected and used to generate ensembles to analyse future projected changes in the variability of LST along the Gold Coast by comparing historical and future projection model runs. The changes in interannual variability projections are inconclusive with the CMIP5 ensemble indicating a decrease in LST interannual variability while the CMIP6-derived models (ensemble with two members) indicate an increase. To allow for a fair comparison, more models to compose the CMIP6 ensemble are required. As for the seasonal variability, CMIP5-derived models suggest a decrease in LST between February and May and virtually no changes for the rest of the year, decreasing the seasonal variability in LST. Changes in LST and its variability may have flow-on effects for coastal management with changes to the creek dredging programs, potentially reduced input to the by- and back-passing systems on the coast and the dispersion of beach nourishment campaigns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023

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