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Preserving biodiversity under rapidly changing climate conditions is challenging. One approach for estimating impacts and their magnitude is to model current relationships between genomic and environmental data and then to forecast those relationships under future climate scenarios. In this way, understanding future genomic and environmental relationships can help guide management decisions, such as where to establish new protected areas where populations might be buffered from high temperatures or major changes in rainfall. However, climate warming is only one of many anthropogenic threats one must consider in rapidly developing parts of the world. In Central Africa, deforestation, mining, and infrastructure development are accelerating population declines of rainforest species. Here we investigate multiple anthropogenic threats in a Central African rainforest songbird, the little greenbul (Andropadus virens). We examine current climate and genomic variation in order to explore the association between genome and environment under future climate conditions. Specifically, we estimate Genomic Vulnerability, defined as the mismatch between current and predicted future genomic variation based on genotype–environment relationships modeled across contemporary populations. We do so while considering other anthropogenic impacts. We find that coastal and central Cameroon populations will require the greatest shifts in adaptive genomic variation, because both climate and land use in these areas are predicted to change dramatically. In contrast, in the more northern forest–savanna ecotones, genomic shifts required to keep pace with climate will be more moderate, and other anthropogenic impacts are expected to be comparatively low in magnitude. While an analysis of diverse taxa will be necessary for making comprehensive conservation decisions, the species‐specific results presented illustrate how evolutionary genomics and other anthropogenic threats may be mapped and used to inform mitigation efforts. To this end, we present an integrated conceptual model demonstrating how the approach for a single species can be expanded to many taxonomically diverse species.

Because it is impossible to comprehensively characterize biodiversity at all levels of organization, conservation prioritization efforts need to rely on surrogates. As species distribution maps of relished groups as well as high-resolution remotely sensed data increasingly become available, both types of surrogates are commonly used. A good surrogate should represent as much of biodiversity as possible, but it often remains unclear to what extent this is the case. Here, we aimed to address this question by assessing how well bird species and habitat diversity represent one another. We conducted our study in Romania, a species-rich country with high landscape heterogeneity where bird species distribution data have only recently started to become available. First, we prioritized areas for conservation based on either 137 breeding bird species or 36 habitat classes, and then evaluated their reciprocal surrogacy performance. Second, we examined how well these features are represented in already existing protected areas. Finally, we identified target regions of high conservation value for the potential expansion of the current network of reserves (as planned under the new EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030). We found a limited reciprocal surrogacy performance, with bird species performing slightly better as a conservation surrogate for habitat diversity than vice versa. We could also show that areas with a high conservation value based on habitat diversity were represented better in already existing protected areas than areas based on bird species, which varied considerably between species. Our results highlight that taxonomic and environmental (i.e., habitat types) data may perform rather poorly as reciprocal surrogates, and multiple sources of data are required for a full evaluation of protected areas expansion.

BackgroundThe environment is a strong driver of genetic structure in many natural populations, yet often neglected in population genetic studies. This may be a particular problem in vagile species, where subtle structure cannot be explained by limitations to dispersal. These species might falsely be considered panmictic and hence potentially mismanaged. Here we analysed the genetic structure in an economically important and widespread pollinator, the buff-tailed bumble bee (Bombus terrestris), which is considered to be quasi-panmictic at mainland continental scales. We first quantified population structure in Romania and Bulgaria with spatially implicit Fst and Bayesian clustering analyses. We then incorporated environmental information to infer the influence of the permeability of the habitat matrix between populations (resistance distances) as well as environmental differences among sites in explaining population divergence.ResultsGenetic structure of the buff-tailed bumble bee was subtle and not detected by Bayesian clustering. As expected, geographic distance and habitat permeability were not informative in explaining the spatial pattern of genetic divergence. Yet, environmental variables related to temperature, vegetation and topography were highly informative, explaining between 33 and 39% of the genetic variation observed.ConclusionsWhere in the past spatially implicit approaches had repeatedly failed, incorporating environmental data proved to be highly beneficial in detecting and unravelling the drivers of genetic structure in this vagile and opportunistic species. Indeed, structure followed a pattern of isolation by environment, where the establishment of dispersers is limited by environmental differences among populations, resulting in the disruption of genetic connectivity and the divergence of populations through genetic drift and divergent natural selection. With this work, we highlight the potential of incorporating environmental differences among population locations to complement the more traditional approach of isolation by geographic distance, in order to obtain a holistic understanding of the processes driving structure in natural populations.

Background The environment is a strong driver of genetic structure in many natural populations, yet often neglected in population genetic studies. This may be a particular problem in vagile species, where subtle structure cannot be explained by limitations to dispersal. Consequently, these species might falsely be considered quasi-panmictic and hence potentially mismanaged. A species this might apply to, is the buff-tailed bumble bee (Bombus terrestris), an economically important and widespread pollinator, which is considered to be quasi-panmictic at mainland continental scales. Here we aimed to (i) quantify genetic structure in 21+ populations of the buff-tailed bumble bee, sampled throughout two Eastern European countries, and (ii) analyse the degree to which structure is explained by environmental differences, habitat permeability and geographic distance. Using 12 microsatellite loci, we characterised populations of this species with Fst analyses, complemented by discriminant analysis of principal components and Bayesian clustering approaches. We then applied generalized dissimilarity modelling to simultaneously assess the informativeness of geographic distance, habitat permeability and environmental differences among populations in explaining divergence. Results Genetic structure of the buff-tailed bumble bee quantified by means of Fst was subtle and not detected by Bayesian clustering. Discriminant analysis of principal components suggested insignificant but still noticeable structure that slightly exceeded estimates obtained through Fst analyses. As expected, geographic distance and habitat permeability were not informative in explaining the spatial pattern of genetic divergence. Yet, environmental variables related to temperature, vegetation and topography were highly informative, explaining between 33 and 39% of the genetic variation observed. Conclusions In contrast to previous studies reporting quasi-panmixia in continental populations of this species, we demonstrated the presence of subtle population structure related to environmental heterogeneity. Environmental data proved to be highly useful in unravelling the drivers of genetic structure in this vagile and opportunistic species. We highlight the potential of including these data to obtain a better understanding of population structure and the processes driving it in species considered to be quasi-panmictic. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-022-01963-5.

Because it is impossible to comprehensively characterize biodiversity at all levels of organization, conservation prioritization efforts need to rely on surrogates. As species distribution maps of relished groups as well as high-resolution remotely sensed data increasingly become available, both types of surrogates are commonly used. A good surrogate should represent as much of biodiversity as possible, but it often remains unclear to what extent this is the case. Here, we aimed to address this question by assessing how well bird species and habitat diversity represent one another. We conducted our study in Romania, a species-rich country with high landscape heterogeneity where bird species distribution data have only recently started to become available. First, we prioritized areas for conservation based on either 137 breeding bird species or 36 habitat classes, and then evaluated their reciprocal surrogacy performance. Second, we examined how well these features are represented in already existing protected areas. Finally, we identified target regions of high conservation value for the potential expansion of the current network of reserves (as planned under the new EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030). We found that bird species were a better surrogate for habitat diversity than vice versa. Highly ranked areas based on habitat diversity were represented better than areas based on bird species, which varied considerably between species. Our results highlight that taxonomic and environmental (i.e., habitat types) data may perform rather poorly as reciprocal surrogates, and multiple sources of data are required for a full evaluation of protected areas expansion.

Because it is impossible to comprehensively characterize biodiversity at all levels of organization, conservation prioritization efforts need to rely on surrogates. As species distribution maps of relished groups as well as high-resolution remotely sensed data increasingly become available, both types of surrogates are commonly used. A good surrogate should represent as much of biodiversity as possible, but it often remains unclear to what extent this is the case. Here, we aimed to address this question by assessing how well bird species and habitat diversity represent one another. We conducted our study in Romania, a species-rich country with high landscape heterogeneity where bird species distribution data have only recently started to become available. First, we prioritized areas for conservation based on either 137 breeding bird species or 36 habitat classes, and then evaluated their reciprocal surrogacy performance. Second, we examined how well these features are represented in already existing protected areas. Finally, we identified target regions of high conservation value for the potential expansion of the current network of reserves (as planned under the new EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030). We found a limited reciprocal surrogacy performance, with bird species performing slightly better as a conservation surrogate for habitat diversity than vice versa. We could also show that areas with a high conservation value based on habitat diversity were represented better in already existing protected areas than areas based on bird species, which varied considerably between species. Our results highlight that taxonomic and environmental (i.e., habitat types) data may perform rather poorly as reciprocal surrogates, and multiple sources of data are required for a full evaluation of protected areas expansion.

Understanding the environmental contributors to population structure is of paramount importance for conservation in urbanized environments. We used spatially explicit models to determine genetic population structure under current and future environmental conditions across a highly fragmented, human-dominated environment in Southern California to assess the effects of natural ecological variation and urbanization. We focused on 7 common species with diverse habitat requirements, home-range sizes, and dispersal abilities. We quantified the relative roles of potential barriers, including natural environmental characteristics and an anthropogenic barrier created by a major highway, in shaping genetic variation. The ability to predict genetic variation in our models differed among species: 11-81% of intraspecific genetic variation was explained by environmental variables. Although an anthropogenically induced barrier (a major highway) severely restricted gene flow and movement at broad scales for some species, genetic variation seemed to be primarily driven by natural environmental heterogeneity at a local level. Our results show how assessing environmentally associated variation for multiple species under current and future climate conditions can help identify priority regions for maximizing population persistence under environmental change in urbanized regions.

Migratory birds generally divide the annual cycle between discrete breeding and nonbreeding ranges. Itinerant breeders, however, reproduce twice at different geographic locations, migrating between them. This unusual flexibility in movement ecology and breeding biology suggests that some species can rapidly modulate the conflicting physiological and behavioral traits required for migration and reproduction. The Phainopepla (Phainopepla nitens), a songbird of the southwestern USA, has long been suspected to breed first in desert habitats in spring, then migrate to woodland habitats to breed again in summer. However, direct evaluation of movement and gene flow among individuals breeding in different locations has previously been logistically intractable. We deployed GPS tags on free-flying Phainopeplas in southern California, all of which migrated to hypothesized woodland breeding habitats after desert breeding (an average distance of 232 km). GPS data also revealed previously unknown fall and spring stopover sites. Population genomic analyses revealed no genetic differentiation among desert and woodland breeding populations, indicating significant movement and gene flow across the region. Finally, we used random forest analyses to quantify substantial environmental differences among temporal stages. Our results provide direct evidence that individual Phainopeplas do indeed move between 2 drastically different breeding habitats in the same year, representing a rare and extreme example of life-history flexibility.

Infectious diseases that originate from multiple wildlife hosts can be complex and problematic to manage. A full understanding is further limited by large temporal and spatial gaps in sampling. However, these limitations can be overcome, in part, by using historical samples, such as those derived from museum collections. Here, we screened over 1000 museum specimens collected over the past 120 years to examine the historical distribution and prevalence of monkeypox virus (MPXV) in five species of African rope squirrel ( Funisciurus sp.) collected across Central Africa. We found evidence of MPXV infections in host species as early as 1899, half a century earlier than the first recognized case of MPXV in 1958, supporting the suggestion that historic pox-like outbreaks in humans and non-human primates may have been caused by MPXV rather than smallpox as originally thought. MPX viral DNA was found in 93 of 1038 (9.0%) specimens from five Funisciurus species ( F. anerythrus , F. carruthersi , F. congicus , F. lemniscatus and F. pyrropus ), of which F. carruthersi and pyrropus had not previously been identified as potential MPXV hosts. We additionally documented relative prevalence rates of infection in museum specimens of Funisciurus and examined the spatial and temporal distribution of MPXV in these potential host species across nearly a hundred years (1899–1993).

Using next generation sequencing and high resolution melt analyses, we identified and typed 53 SNPs in Nazca boobies (Sula granti) from the Galapagos to build a pedigree.

Background This study aims to assess the role that Pleistocene refugia, rivers and local habitat conditions may have played in the evolutionary diversification of three central African duiker species (Cephalophus dorsalis, C. callipygus and Philantomba monticola). Genetic data from geo-referenced feces were collected from a wide range of sites across Central Africa. Historical patterns of population genetic structure were assessed using a ~ 650 bp fragment of the mitochondrial control region and contemporary patterns of genetic differentiation were evaluated using 12 polymorphic microsatellite loci. Results Mitochondrial analyses revealed that populations of C. callipygus and P. monticola in the Gulf of Guinea refugium are distinct from other populations in west central Africa. All three species exhibit signatures of past population expansion across much of the study area consistent with a history of postglacial expansion. There was no strong evidence for a riverine barrier effect in any of the three species, suggesting that duikers can readily cross major rivers. Generalized dissimilarity models (GDM) showed that environmental variation explains most of the nuclear genetic differentiation in both C. callipygus and P. monticola. The forest-savanna transition across central Cameroon and the Plateaux Batéké region in southeastern Gabon show the highest environmentally-associated turnover in genetic variability. A pattern of genetic differentiation was also evident between the coast and forest interior that may reflect differences in precipitation and/or vegetation. Conclusions Findings from this study highlight the historical impact of Pleistocene fragmentation and current influence of environmental variation on genetic structure in duikers. Conservation efforts should therefore target areas that harbor as much environmentally-associated genetic variation as possible in order to maximize species’ capacity to adapt to environmental change. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12862-017-1054-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A trophic radiation in the South-American annual killifish genus Austrolebias has led to the evolution of large specialized piscivores from small generalized carnivores. It has been proposed that this occurred in a single series of vicariant speciation events. An alternative hypothesis is denoted giant-dwarf speciation: piscivores would have evolved in sympatry by character displacement and cannibalism. We test the plausibility of both scenarios using size measures combined with distributional data and new phylogenetic trees based on mitochondrial and nuclear molecular markers.Our analysis uses historical biogeography models and Ornstein-Uehlenbeck processes describing trait evolution across the posterior distributions of phylogenetic trees. Large species most likely evolved three times from small ones. For the clade containing A. elongatus, we argue that vicariance was not involved in the origin of these large and specialized piscivores. They experience stabilizing selection with an optimum shifted towards larger bodies and longer jaws. The branch leading to this clade has the fastest evolving jaw lengths across the phylogeny, in agreement with expectations for giant-dwarf speciation. For A. wolterstorffi, the support for giant-dwarf speciation is weaker. When the species is placed at the root of Austrolebias, ancestral reconstructions are unreliable and vicariance cannot be ruled out. For the remaining large species, we can reject vicariance and giant dwarf speciation. Our results give rise to two new additional scenarios for the evolution of specialized piscivores. In the first, two successive speciation events in sympatry or parapatry produced large and piscivorous species. In the second, the immigration of a different annual killifish genus (Cynopoecilus) in the Patos area of endemism has contributed to in-situ diversification of Austrolebias species.

Both neutral and adaptive evolutionary processes can cause population divergence, but their relative contributions remain unclear. We investigated the roles of these processes in population divergence in house sparrows (Passer domesticus) from Romania and Bulgaria, regions characterized by high landscape heterogeneity compared to Western Europe. We asked whether morphological divergence, complemented with genetic data in this human commensal species, was best explained by environmental variation, geographic distance, or landscape resistance—the effort it takes for an individual to disperse from one location to the other—caused by either natural or anthropogenic barriers. Using generalized dissimilarity modeling, a matrix regression technique that fits biotic beta diversity to both environmental predictors and geographic distance, we found that a small set of climate and vegetation variables explained up to ~30% of the observed divergence, whereas geographic and resistance distances played much lesser roles. Our results are consistent with signals of selection on morphological traits and of isolation by adaptation in genetic markers, suggesting that selection by natural environmental conditions shapes population divergence in house sparrows. Our study thus contributes to a growing body of evidence that adaptive evolution may be a major driver of diversification.

Studies of both vertebrates and invertebrates have suggested that specialists, as compared to generalists, are likely to suffer more serious declines in response to environmental change. Less is known about the effects of environmental conditions on specialist versus generalist parasites. Here, we study the evolutionary strategies of malaria parasites (Plasmodium spp.) among different bird host communities. We determined the parasite diversity and prevalence of avian malaria in three bird communities in the lowland forests in Cameroon, highland forests in East Africa and fynbos in South Africa. We calculated the host specificity index of parasites to examine the range of hosts parasitized as a function of the habitat and investigated the phylogenetic relationships of parasites. First, using phylogenetic and ancestral reconstruction analyses, we found an evolutionary tendency for generalist malaria parasites to become specialists. The transition rate at which generalists become specialists was nearly four times as great as the rate at which specialists become generalists. We also found more specialist parasites and greater parasite diversity in African lowland rainforests as compared to the more climatically variable habitats of the fynbos and the highland forests. Thus, with environmental changes, we anticipate a change in the distribution of both specialist and generalist parasites with potential impacts on bird communities.

In the debate over modes of vertebrate diversification in tropical rainforests, two competing hypotheses of speciation predominate: those that emphasize the role of geographical isolation during glacial periods and those that stress the role of ecology and diversifying selection across ecotones or environmental gradients. To investigate the relative roles of selection versus isolation in refugia, we contrasted genetic and morphologic divergence of the olive sunbird (Cyanomitra olivacea) at 18 sites (approximately 200 individuals) across the forest-savanna ecotone of Central Africa in a region considered to have harboured three hypothesized refugia during glacial periods. Habitats were characterized using bioclimatic and satellite remote-sensing data. We found relatively high levels of gene flow between ecotone and forest populations and between refugia. Consistent with a pattern of divergence-with-gene-flow, we found morphological characters to be significantly divergent across the gradient [forest versus ecotone (mean ± SD): wing length 60.47 ± 1.81 mm versus 62.18 ± 1.35 mm; tarsus length 15.51 ± 0.82 mm versus 16.00 ± 0.57 mm; upper mandible length 21.77 ± 1.09 mm versus 23.19 ± 0.98 mm, respectively]. Within-habitat comparisons across forest and ecotone sites showed no significant differences in morphology. The results show that divergence in morphological traits is tied to environmental variables across the gradient and is occurring despite gene flow. The pattern of divergence-with-gene-flow found is similar to that described for other rainforest species across the gradient. These results suggest that neither refugia, nor isolation-by-distance have played a major role in divergence in the olive sunbird, although ecological differences along the forest and savanna ecotone may impose significant selection pressures on the phenotype and potentially be important in diversification.

Human-induced land use changes are causing extensive habitat fragmentation. As a result, many species are not able to shift their ranges in response to climate change and will likely need to adapt in situ to changing climate conditions. Consequently, a prudent strategy to maintain the ability of populations to adapt is to focus conservation efforts on areas where levels of intraspecific variation are high. By doing so, the potential for an evolutionary response to environmental change is maximized. Here, we use modeling approaches in conjunction with environmental variables to model species distributions and patterns of genetic and morphological variation in seven Ecuadorian amphibian, bird, and mammal species. We then used reserve selection software to prioritize areas for conservation based on intraspecific variation or species-level diversity. Reserves selected using species richness and complementarity showed little overlap with those based on genetic and morphological variation. Priority areas for intraspecific variation were mainly located along the slopes of the Andes and were largely concordant among species, but were not well represented in existing reserves. Our results imply that in order to maximize representation of intraspecific variation in reserves, genetic and morphological variation should be included in conservation prioritization.

Spatial analytical methods have been used by biologists for decades, but with new modelling approaches and data availability their application is accelerating. While early approaches were purely spatial in nature, it is now possible to explore the underlying causes of spatial heterogeneity of biological variation using a wealth of environmental data, especially from satellite remote sensing. Recent methods can not only make inferences regarding spatial relationships and the causes of spatial heterogeneity, but also create predictive maps of patterns of biological variation under changing environmental conditions. Here, we review the methods involved in making continuous spatial predictions from biological variation using spatial and environmental predictor variables, provide examples of their use and critically evaluate the advantages and limitations. In the final section, we discuss some of the key challenges and opportunities for future work.

Studies of rainforest diversification that simultaneously consider the effects of genetic drift and natural selection are rare. We use Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism genome scans of the African rainforest lizard Trachylepis affinis from Cameroon to examine the spatial patterns and environmental associations of both neutrally evolving loci and those thought to be under selection. Bayesian selection scans revealed that approximately 7% of the genome may be under divergent selection. Using non-linear environmental modelling techniques, we fit patterns of genetic differentiation recovered from the pooled neutral data and from individual loci showing a signature of natural selection. Neutral differentiation occurred along a cline from coastal lowland rainforest inland toward the gallery forests-savanna mosaic (ecotone), and was associated with both geographic distance and changing precipitation patterns. Loci under selection were differentiated predominantly along the forest-ecotone gradient-in concordance with morphological divergence in traits related to fitness. A second set of these loci was differentiated between lowland and montane habitats. A third set of loci was indicative of divergent selection between rainforest refugia. Niche models and demographic signals in mitochondrial sequence data support a population expansion out of a core rainforest area into savanna since the last glacial maximum. Our findings indicate adaptive diversification in T. affinis may be taking place along the forest-ecotone gradient during range expansions or contractions, and that refugial isolation augmented by divergent adaptation to different rainforest environments appears to play a less significant role.

To better understand how environment shapes phenotypic and genetic variation, we explore the relationship between environmental variables across Ecuador and genetic and morphological variation in the wedge-billed woodcreeper (Glyphorynchus spirurus), a common Neotropical rainforest bird species. Generalized dissimilarity models show that variation in amplified fragment length polymorphism markers was strongly associated with environmental variables on both sides of the Andes, but could also partially be explained by geographic distance on the western side of the Andes. Tarsus, wing, tail, and bill lengths and bill depth were well explained by environmental variables on the western side of the Andes, whereas only tarsus length was well explained on the eastern side. Regions that comprise the highest rates of genetic and phenotypic change occur along steep elevation gradients in the Andes. Such environmental gradients are likely to be particularly important for maximizing adaptive diversity to minimize the impacts of climate change. Using a framework for conservation prioritization based on preserving ecological and evolutionary processes, we found little overlap between currently protected areas in Ecuador and regions we predicted to be important in maximizing adaptive variation.

Several swiftlet species echolocate to navigate in the darkness of their nesting caves. We investigated whether swiftlets’ echo clicks and social vocalizations differed among species and whether they could be used in phylogenetic inference. We incorporated echo clicks of eight swiftlet species and social vocalizations of 27 echolocating and nonecholocating swifts and swiftlets. Characters in the frequency and time domain were used and analysed using nonparametric multivariate analysis of variance and stepwise discriminant analysis. We performed maximum parsimony analyses and character mapping to investigate phylogenetic signal and evolutionary patterns of swiftlet vocalizations. Echo clicks were species-specific. As well as in navigation, they may be used in recognition of conspecifics. Social vocalizations were species-specific also. However, the vocalizations contained no phylogenetic interpretable information. Maximum parsimony trees of echo clicks and of social vocalizations were almost completely unresolved. Moreover, resolved branches showed no congruence to a DNA-based tree that had been obtained previously. Mapping of the vocalization characters on the DNA-based tree revealed no consistent phylogenetic patterns. © 2006 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2006, 88, 631–643.

Due to a lack of distinctive morphological characters, swift taxonomy and phylogeny has always been an area of disagreement. To shed more light on this subject, we reconstructed swift(let) phylogeny based on 1143 bp of mitochondrial cytochrome-b DNA sequence. Although this is not the first attempt to reconstruct swift phylogeny using molecular data, our results show higher support for many of the branches due to our much longer sequences. However, placement of Hydrochous is still unexpected. Implementation of more conservative genetic regions and sampling of more taxa could solve this problem. Most importantly, the Collocaliini resolve as a monophyletic group. The internal structure of the group shows that non-echolocating Collocalia and echolocating Aerodramus form two distinct clades. This is in congruence with earlier classifications based on morphological characters, but in contrast with more recent classifications. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

The adaptive significance of zebra stripes has thus far eluded understanding. Many explanations have been suggested, including social cohesion, thermoregulation, predation evasion and avoidance of biting flies. Identifying the associations between phenotypic and environmental factors is essential for testing these hypotheses and substantiating existing experimental evidence. Plains zebra striping pattern varies regionally, from heavy black and white striping over the entire body in some areas to reduced stripe coverage with thinner and lighter stripes in others. We examined how well 29 environmental variables predict the variation in stripe characteristics of plains zebra across their range in Africa. In contrast to recent findings, we found no evidence that striping may have evolved to escape predators or avoid biting flies. Instead, we found that temperature successfully predicts a substantial amount of the stripe pattern variation observed in plains zebra. As this association between striping and temperature may be indicative of multiple biological processes, we suggest that the selective agents driving zebra striping are probably multifarious and complex.

Since first introduced to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has spread rapidly across the continent, threatening wildlife populations and posing serious health risks to humans. While WNV incidence has been linked to environmental factors, particularly temperature and rainfall, little is known about how future climate change may affect the spread of the disease. Using available data on WNV infections in vectors and hosts collected from 2003-2011 and using a suite of 10 species distribution models, weighted according to their predictive performance, we modeled the incidence of WNV under current climate conditions at a continental scale. Models were found to accurately predict spatial patterns of WNV that were then used to examine how future climate may affect the spread of the disease. Predictions were accurate for cases of human WNV infection in the following year (2012), with areas reporting infections having significantly higher probability of presence as predicted by our models. Projected geographic distributions of WNV in North America under future climate for 2050 and 2080 show an expansion of suitable climate for the disease, driven by warmer temperatures and lower annual precipitation that will result in the exposure of new and naive host populations to the virus with potentially serious consequences. Our risk assessment identifies current and future hotspots of West Nile virus where mitigation efforts should be focused and presents an important new approach for monitoring vector-borne disease under climate change.

Baird’s tapir (Tapirus bairdii) is one of the most emblematic mammals of Mesoamerica, but like other largebodied animals, it is facing an increasing risk of extinction due primarily to habitat loss. Mexico’s portion of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC-M) is located in one of the main strongholds for Baird’s tapir. To assess the MBC-M’s effectiveness for tapir conservation, we estimated the distribution of the species’ potential habitat by applying 2 modelling approaches (random forest and Maxent) to a set of uncorrelated environmental variables and a 157-point presence dataset. We calculated the extent of tapir habitat in within the MBC-M and modelled new corridors and conservation areas, which we compared to the MBC-M. Moreover, we assessed deforestation patterns in the region. Twenty-seven percent of highly suitable tapir habitat occurred in protected areas, 15% in corridors and 58.3% was outside the MBC-M and associated reserves. The spatial configuration of the MBC-M was partially concordant with the modelled set of conservation areas and corridors. The main dissimilarity was that the modelled corridors traversed forests in Belize and Guatemala to connect conservation areas. Analyses of deforestation since 1993 and human population density in the vicinity of the MBC-M indicated that future conservation efforts should give particular attention to the Montes Azules-El Triunfo Corridor due to greater habitat threat. The MBC-M has a great potential to play a prominent role in the conservation of tapir habitat but there is an urgent need to implement management plans that reinforce and complement this conservation initiative.

Although the incidence of human monkeypox has greatly increased in Central Africa over the last decade, resources for surveillance remain extremely limited. We conducted a geospatial analysis using existing data to better inform future surveillance efforts. Using active surveillance data collected between 2005 and 2007, we identified locations in Sankuru district, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) where there have been one or more cases of human monkeypox. To assess what taxa constitute the main reservoirs of monkeypox, we tested whether human cases were associated with (i) rope squirrels (Funisciurus sp.), which were implicated in monkeypox outbreaks elsewhere in the DRC in the 1980s, or (ii) terrestrial rodents in the genera Cricetomys and Graphiurus, which are believed to be monkeypox reservoirs in West Africa. Results suggest that the best predictors of human monkeypox cases are proximity to dense forests and associated habitat preferred by rope squirrels. The risk of contracting monkeypox is significantly greater near sites predicted to be habitable for squirrels (OR = 1.32; 95% CI 1.08–1.63). We recommend that semi-deciduous rainforests with oil-palm, the rope squirrel’s main food source, be prioritized for monitoring. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10393-010-0355-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Studies on the burden of human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) were last conducted from 1981 to 1986. Since then, the population that is immunologically naïve to orthopoxviruses has increased significantly due to cessation of mass smallpox vaccination campaigns. To assess the current risk of infection, we analyzed human monkeypox incidence trends in a monkeypox-enzootic region. Active, population-based surveillance was conducted in nine health zones in central DRC. Epidemiologic data and biological samples were obtained from suspected cases. Cumulative incidence (per 10,000 population) and major determinants of infection were compared with data from active surveillance in similar regions from 1981 to 1986. Between November 2005 and November 2007, 760 laboratory-confirmed human monkeypox cases were identified in participating health zones. The average annual cumulative incidence across zones was 5.53 per 10,000 (2.18–14.42). Factors associated with increased risk of infection included: living in forested areas, male gender, age < 15, and no prior smallpox vaccination. Vaccinated persons had a 5.2-fold lower risk of monkeypox than unvaccinated persons (0.78 vs. 4.05 per 10,000). Comparison of active surveillance data in the same health zone from the 1980s (0.72 per 10,000) and 2006–07 (14.42 per 10,000) suggests a 20-fold increase in human monkeypox incidence. Thirty years after mass smallpox vaccination campaigns ceased, human monkeypox incidence has dramatically increased in rural DRC. Improved surveillance and epidemiological analysis is needed to better assess the public health burden and develop strategies for reducing the risk of wider spread of infection.

Spatial analytical methods have been used by biologists for decades, but with new modelling approaches and data availability their application is accelerating. While early approaches were purely spatial in nature, it is now possible to explore the underlying causes of spatial heterogeneity of biological variation using a wealth of environmental data, especially from satellite remote sensing. Recent methods can not only make inferences regarding spatial relationships and the causes of spatial heterogeneity, but also create predictive maps of patterns of biological variation under changing environmental conditions. Here, we review the methods involved in making continuous spatial predictions from biological variation using spatial and environmental predictor variables, provide examples of their use and critically evaluate the advantages and limitations. In the final section, we discuss some of the key challenges and opportunities for future work.

Studies of rainforest diversification that simultaneously consider the effects of genetic drift and natural selection are rare. We use Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism genome scans of the African rainforest lizard Trachylepis affinis from Cameroon to examine the spatial patterns and environmental associations of both neutrally evolving loci and those thought to be under selection. Bayesian selection scans revealed that approximately 7% of the genome may be under divergent selection. Using non-linear environmental modelling techniques, we fit patterns of genetic differentiation recovered from the pooled neutral data and from individual loci showing a signature of natural selection. Neutral differentiation occurred along a cline from coastal lowland rainforest inland toward the gallery forests-savanna mosaic (ecotone), and was associated with both geographic distance and changing precipitation patterns. Loci under selection were differentiated predominantly along the forest-ecotone gradient-in concordance with morphological divergence in traits related to fitness. A second set of these loci was differentiated between lowland and montane habitats. A third set of loci was indicative of divergent selection between rainforest refugia. Niche models and demographic signals in mitochondrial sequence data support a population expansion out of a core rainforest area into savanna since the last glacial maximum. Our findings indicate adaptive diversification in T. affinis may be taking place along the forest-ecotone gradient during range expansions or contractions, and that refugial isolation augmented by divergent adaptation to different rainforest environments appears to play a less significant role.

Background Avian influenza virus (AIV) is an important public health issue because pandemic influenza viruses in people have contained genes from viruses that infect birds. The H5 and H7 AIV subtypes have periodically mutated from low pathogenicity to high pathogenicity form. Analysis of the geographic distribution of AIV can identify areas where reassortment events might occur and how high pathogenicity influenza might travel if it enters wild bird populations in the US. Modelling the number of AIV cases is important because the rate of co-infection with multiple AIV subtypes increases with the number of cases and co-infection is the source of reassortment events that give rise to new strains of influenza, which occurred before the 1968 pandemic. Aquatic birds in the orders Anseriformes and Charadriiformes have been recognized as reservoirs of AIV since the 1970s. However, little is known about influenza prevalence in terrestrial birds in the order Passeriformes. Since passerines share the same habitat as poultry, they may be more effective transmitters of the disease to humans than aquatic birds. We analyze 152 passerine species including the American Robin (Turdus migratorius) and Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus). Methods We formulate a regression model to predict AIV cases throughout the US at the county scale as a function of 12 environmental variables, sampling effort, and proximity to other counties with influenza outbreaks. Our analysis did not distinguish between types of influenza, including low or highly pathogenic forms. Results Analysis of 13,046 cloacal samples collected from 225 bird species in 41 US states between 2005 and 2008 indicates that the average prevalence of influenza in passerines is greater than the prevalence in eight other avian orders. Our regression model identifies the Great Plains and the Pacific Northwest as high-risk areas for AIV. Highly significant predictors of AIV include the amount of harvested cropland and the first day of the year when a county is snow free. Conclusions Although the prevalence of influenza in waterfowl has long been appreciated, we show that 22 species of song birds and perching birds (order Passeriformes) are influenza reservoirs in the contiguous US.

To better understand how environment shapes phenotypic and genetic variation, we explore the relationship between environmental variables across Ecuador and genetic and morphological variation in the wedge-billed woodcreeper (Glyphorynchus spirurus), a common Neotropical rainforest bird species. Generalized dissimilarity models show that variation in amplified fragment length polymorphism markers was strongly associated with environmental variables on both sides of the Andes, but could also partially be explained by geographic distance on the western side of the Andes. Tarsus, wing, tail, and bill lengths and bill depth were well explained by environmental variables on the western side of the Andes, whereas only tarsus length was well explained on the eastern side. Regions that comprise the highest rates of genetic and phenotypic change occur along steep elevation gradients in the Andes. Such environmental gradients are likely to be particularly important for maximizing adaptive diversity to minimize the impacts of climate change. Using a framework for conservation prioritization based on preserving ecological and evolutionary processes, we found little overlap between currently protected areas in Ecuador and regions we predicted to be important in maximizing adaptive variation.

The Oilbird and many Swiftlet species are unique among birds for their ability to echolocate. Echolocaters may benefit from improved hearing sensitivity. Therefore, morphological adaptations to echolocation might be present in echolocating birds’ middle ears. We studied the functional morphology of the tympano–ossicular chain of seven specimens of four echolocating Swiftlet species and one specimen each of five non-echolocating species. Three dimensional (3D) reconstructions were made from micro-Computer-Tomographic (μCT) scans. The reconstructions were used in functional morphological analyses and model calculations. A two dimensional (2D) rigid rod model with fixed rotational axes was developed to study footplate output-amplitudes and to describe how changes in the arrangement of the tympano–ossicular chain affect its function. A 3D finite element model was used to predict ossicular-chain movement and to investigate the justification of the 2D approach. No morphological adaptations towards echolocation were found in the middle-ear lever system or in the mass impedance of the middle ear. A wide range of middle-ear configurations result in maximum output-amplitudes and all investigated species are congruent with these predicted best configurations. Echolocation is unlikely to depend on adaptations in the middle ear tympano–ossicular chain.

We recently reconstructed the troublesome swiftlet phylogeny using cytochrome- b mitochondrial DNA sequences. The relationship of the giant swiftlet ( Hydrochous gigas ) with swiftlets of the genus Aerodramus was, however, unresolved. In an attempt to clarify this issue, we now incorporated mitochondrial 12S rRNA and nuclear β-fibrinogen intron 7 nuclear DNA sequences with the cyt- b sequences of six swiftlet, two swift, and one hummingbird outgroup species. A partition homogeneity (PH) test, used to determine the congruence of phylogenetic signal between two sets of sequences, suggested that cyt- b and Fib7 sequences were incongruent and therefore should not be combined. However, further analyses revealed that the apparent incongruence was probably due to the high amount of variation in cyt- b sequences. Separate and combined analyses of the three sequences unambiguously placed H. gigas as the sister-group of Aerodramus and supported monophyly of the swiftlets. These results were supported by analyses of combined NADH dehydrogenase subunit-2 (ND2) and cyt- b sequences of H. gigas in combination with sequences previously published by other workers. Recently, it was shown that the pygmy swiftlet ( C. troglodytes )—in our phylogenetic analyses consistently placed with other, non-echolocating, Collocalia species—is in fact able to echolocate. Echolocation thereby lost its value to distinguish between different swiftlet genera. Furthermore, the phylogenetic distribution of echolocation can be explained either by its single evolution at the base of the swiftlets, with subsequent loss, or by independent evolution in Aerodramus and C. troglodytes . Because yet unpublished data suggest that only the auditory nuclei in swiftlet brains show adaptations to echolocation, the latter explanation seems the more likely one.

Understanding the conditions underlying the proliferation of infectious diseases is crucial for mitigating future outbreaks. Since its arrival in North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has led to population-wide declines of bird species, morbidity and mortality of humans, and expenditures of millions of dollars on treatment and control. To understand the environmental conditions that best explain and predict WNV prevalence, we employed recently developed spatial modeling techniques in a recognized WNV hotspot, Orange County, California. Our models explained 85–95% of the variation of WNV prevalence in mosquito vectors, and WNV presence in secondary human hosts. Prevalence in both vectors and humans was best explained by economic variables, specifically per capita income, and by anthropogenic characteristics of the environment, particularly human population and neglected swimming pool density. While previous studies have shown associations between anthropogenic change and pathogen presence, results show that poorer economic conditions may act as a direct surrogate for environmental characteristics related to WNV prevalence. Low-income areas may be associated with higher prevalence for a number of reasons, including variations in property upkeep, microhabitat conditions conducive to viral amplification in both vectors and hosts, host community composition, and human behavioral responses related to differences in education or political participation. Results emphasize the importance and utility of including economic variables in mapping spatial risk assessments of disease.

Myzomela honeyeaters are distributed from eastern Austalia and Indonesia throughout the islands of the tropical Pacific, a biodiversity hotspot that is particularly vulnerable due to small population sizes, habitat destruction, and high levels of isolation between islands. We developed fourteen microsatellite loci for Myzomela honeyeaters from the tropical Pacific. Microsatellites were tested for polymorphism on a panel of 104 individuals. The number of alleles ranged from 3 to 23, observed heterozygosity from 0.067 to 0.913, and the fixation index from −0.143 to 0.634. Cross-amplification was tested in 18 different species and subspecies in the genus Myzomela from throughout the Pacific, Australia, and eastern Indonesian archipelago. These new microsatellites could potentially be useful in making informed conservation decisions regarding Myzomela honeyeaters on the islands of the tropical Pacific.

Predicting where threatened species occur is useful for making informed conservation decisions. However, because they are usually rare, surveying threatened species is often expensive and time intensive. Here, we show how regions where common species exhibit high genetic and morphological divergence among populations can be used to predict the occurrence of species of conservation concern. Intraspecific variation of common species of birds, bats and frogs from Ecuador were found to be a significantly better predictor for the occurrence of threatened species than suites of environmental variables or the occurrence of amphibians and birds. Fully 93 per cent of the threatened species analysed had their range adequately represented by the geographical distribution of the morphological and genetic variation found in seven common species. Both higher numbers of threatened species and greater genetic and morphological variation of common species occurred along elevation gradients. Higher levels of intraspecific divergence may be the result of disruptive selection and/or introgression along gradients. We suggest that collecting data on genetic and morphological variation in common species can be a cost effective tool for conservation planning, and that future biodiversity inventories include surveying genetic and morphological data of common species whenever feasible.

Background The mechanisms that underlie the diversification of tropical animals remain poorly understood, but new approaches that combine geo-spatial modeling with spatially explicit genetic data are providing fresh insights on this topic. Data about the diversification of tropical mammals remain particularly sparse, and vanishingly few opportunities exist to study endangered large mammals that increasingly exist only in isolated pockets. The chimpanzees of Cameroon represent a unique opportunity to examine the mechanisms that promote genetic differentiation in tropical mammals because the region is home to two chimpanzee subspecies: Pan troglodytes ellioti and P. t. trogolodytes. Their ranges converge in central Cameroon, which is a geographically, climatically and environmentally complex region that presents an unparalleled opportunity to examine the roles of rivers and/or environmental variation in influencing the evolution of chimpanzee populations. Results We analyzed microsatellite genotypes and mtDNA HVRI sequencing data from wild chimpanzees sampled at a fine geographic scale across Cameroon and eastern Nigeria using a spatially explicit approach based upon Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling. Both the Sanaga River and environmental variation were found to contribute to driving separation of the subspecies. The importance of environmental variation differed among subspecies. Gene-environment associations were weak in P. t. troglodytes, whereas environmental variation was found to play a much larger role in shaping patterns of genetic differentiation in P. t. ellioti. Conclusions We found that both the Sanaga River and environmental variation likely play a role in shaping patterns of chimpanzee genetic diversity. Future studies using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data are necessary to further understand how rivers and environmental variation contribute to shaping patterns of genetic variation in chimpanzees. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-014-0274-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.