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Climate change poses a significant threat to women's health in sub-Saharan Africa, yet the impact of climate change on maternal health is rarely reported in the region. Using an existing Maternal Surveillance Platform (MATSurvey), we estimated the immediate impact of Cyclone Freddy on maternal health care service indicators in Malawi. We analysed facility-level data for pregnant women up to 42 weeks post-partum using the national MATSurvey database. We compared incidences of service utilisation before (1 January to 19 February 2023) and after (20 February to 30 March 2023) the cyclone using a negative binomial regression approach. Between 1 January and 30 March 2023, a total of 37,445 live births, 50,048 antenatal clinic attendances, 23,250 postnatal clinic attendances, 84 maternal deaths, and 1,166 neonatal deaths were recorded by 33 facilities in the MatSurvey database. There was an immediate reduction in service utilisation in the post-cyclone period, including the postnatal attendance per week (pre-cyclone median: 355.0 [IQR 279.0-552.0], post-cyclone median: 261.0 [IQR 154.3-305.5], RR 0.56 [95% CI 0.44-0.71, p <0.001]) and the antenatal attendance per week (pre-cyclone median: 860.0 [IQR 756.5-1060.0], post-cyclone median: 656.5 [IQR 486.5-803.3], RR 0.66 [95% CI 0.55-0.78, p <0.001]). Stratified analyses by geographical zones revealed a stronger reduction in postnatal clinic attendance in the Southwest (RR 0.50 [95% CI 0.29-0.85, p = 0.010]) and the North (RR 0.29 [95% CI 0.15-0.56, p <0.001]). Cyclone Freddy resulted in an immediate decline in utilisation of maternal health services in cyclone-affected regions in Malawi. We observe evidence of catastrophic climate events impacting on the healthcare of women and their babies. Policymakers, researchers, and health systems need to ensure that essential women's health services are maintained during these events and improve measures to support service resilience in the face of climate change., Competing Interests: The Wellcome Trust has provided a Strategic Award to the Malawi–Liverpool–Wellcome Clinical Research Programme (206545/Z/17/Z) that, in part, covers the salary and operational costs of the Statistical Support Unit at the programme, led by MYRH. All other authors have no competing interests to declare., (Copyright: © 2024 Twabi et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted tuberculosis (TB) health services, including treatment support and access to drugs, as patients were not able to access health facilities. While the effect of this disruption on treatment outcomes has been studied in isolated treatment centres, cities and provinces, the impact of the pandemic on TB treatment outcomes at a country and regional level has not been evaluated., Methods: We used treatment outcomes for new and relapse TB cases reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) from 49 high TB, TB/HIV and drug-resistant TB burden countries from 2012 to 2019. We developed multinomial logistic regression models for trends in TB treatment success, failure, death and loss to follow up. We predicted TB treatment outcomes for 2020 and 2021, comparing these to observations, by computing ratios between observed and predicted probabilities. We aggregated these risk ratios (RR) for six WHO-defined regions using random-effects meta-analysis., Results: Across 49 countries and four TB treatment outcomes, 17 (out of 196) country-outcome pairs in 2020 and 21 in 2021 had evidence of systematic differences between observed and predicted TB treatment outcome probabilities. Regionally, only four (out of 24) region-outcome pairs had evidence of systematic differences in 2020 and four in 2021, where the European region accounted for four of these in total. Globally, there was evidence of systematic differences in treatment failure in both 2020 (RR: 1.14, 95%CI: 1.01-1.28, p = 0.0381) and 2021 (RR: 1.36, 95%CI: 1.03-1.78, p = 0.0277), deaths in 2020 (RR: 1.08, 95%CI: 1.03-1.13, p = 0.0010) and losses to follow up in 2020 (RR: 0.91, 95%CI: 0.86-0.97, p = 0.0059)., Conclusions: While for some countries and regions there were significant differences between observed and predicted treatment outcomes probabilities, there was insufficient evidence globally to identify systematic differences between observed and expected TB treatment outcome probabilities because of COVID-19-associated disruptions in general. However, larger numbers of treatment failures and deaths on treatment than expected were observed globally, suggesting a need for further investigation., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Salmonella Typhi is a human-restricted pathogen that is transmitted by the faecal-oral route and causative organism of typhoid fever. Using health facility data from 2016 to 2020, this study focuses on modelling the spatial variation in typhoid risk in Ndirande township in Blantyre. To pursue this objective, we developed a marked inhomogeneous Poisson process model that allows us to incorporate both individual-level and environmental risk factors. The results from our analysis indicate that typhoid cases are spatially clustered, with the incidence decreasing by 54% for a unit increase in the water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) score. Typhoid intensity was also higher in children aged below 18 years than in adults. However, our results did not show evidence of a strong temporal variation in typhoid incidence. We also discuss the inferential benefits of using point pattern models to characterise the spatial variation in typhoid risk and outline possible extensions of the proposed modelling framework., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: In Malawi, the national pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) demonstrated less herd immunity than the USA, likely due to higher natural pneumococcal carriage rates. We assessed PCV13 efficacy against experimental pneumococcal carriage in healthy Malawian adults. We explored how natural carriage (pneumococcal carriage of any other serotype apart from 6B) influenced experimental carriage rates and vaccine efficacy., Methods: Healthy adults aged 18-40 were randomly assigned PCV13 (n=98) or saline (n=106), followed by intranasal SPN 6B inoculation at 20,000 (n=40), 80,000 (n=74), or 160,000 (n=90) CFU/100µl, 28 days post-vaccination. We evaluated natural and experimental pneumococcal carriage before and after vaccination on days 2, 7, and 14 post-inoculation using culture and multiplex qPCR targeting lytA/cpsA genes and compared carriage rates by vaccination status., Results: Of 204 participants, 19.6% (40) exhibited experimental carriage, detected by culture and 25.5% (52) by qPCR. Vaccinated individuals had lower experimental carriage rates (10.2%, n=10/98) compared to the placebo group (28.3%, n=30/106). This difference in vaccine efficacy was more pronounced in participants without natural carriage (PCV13=8% n=6/75 vs. placebo=25.9%, n=21/81) compared to those with natural carriage (PCV13=14.8%, n=4/27 vs. placebo=26.5%, n=9/34). Using a log-binomial model, vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 62%, whether assessed by culture or qPCR. Natural carriers had a lower VE of 52% compared to participants with no natural carriage (VE=69%)., Conclusion: We have shown that PCV13 VE estimate (62%) is robust whether carriage is assessed by culture or qPCR. PCV13 had lower VE in natural carriers compared to those without natural carriage at the inoculation visit., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission and prevalence are dynamic over time, and heterogeneous within populations. Public health programmes therefore require up-to-date, accurate epidemiological data to appropriately allocate resources, target interventions, and track progress towards End TB goals. Current methods of TB surveillance often rely on case notifications, which are biased by access to healthcare, and TB disease prevalence surveys, which are highly resource-intensive, requiring many tens of thousands of people to be tested to identify high-risk groups or capture trends. Surveys of "latent TB infection", or immunoreactivity to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), using tests such as interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) could provide a way to identify TB transmission hotspots, supplementing information from disease notifications, and with greater spatial and temporal resolution than is possible to achieve in disease prevalence surveys. This cross-sectional survey will investigate the prevalence of Mtb immunoreactivity amongst young children, adolescents and adults in Blantyre, Malawi, a high HIV-prevalence city in southern Africa. Through this study we will estimate the annual risk of TB infection (ARTI) in Blantyre and explore individual- and area-level risk factors for infection, as well as investigating geospatial heterogeneity of Mtb infection (and its determinants), and comparing these to the distribution of TB disease case-notifications. We will also evaluate novel diagnostics for Mtb infection (QIAreach QFT) and sampling methodologies (convenience sampling in healthcare settings and community sampling based on satellite imagery), which may increase the feasibility of measuring Mtb infection at large scale. The overall aim is to provide high-resolution epidemiological data and provide new insights into methodologies which may be used by TB programmes globally., Competing Interests: The manufacturers of QFT-Plus and QIAreach QFT (QIAGEN) have agreed to provide tests at reduced or no cost for the purposes of research. The investigators will retain all control over research questions and design, data analysis and dissemination, and the manufacturer will play no role in study design, collection, analysis, and interpretation of data, or writing up the study findings., (Copyright: © 2024 Rickman et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Pneumococcal carriage is the primary reservoir for transmissionand a prerequisite for invasive pneumococcal disease. Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine 13 (PCV13) showed a 62% efficacy in protection against experimental Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6B (Spn6B) carriage in a controlled human infection model (CHIM) of healthy Malawian adults. We, therefore, measured humoral responses to experimental challenge and PCV-13 vaccination and determined the association with protection against pneumococcal carriage., Methods: We vaccinated 204 young, healthy Malawian adults with PCV13 or placebo and nasally inoculated them with Spn6B at least four weeks post-vaccination to establish carriage. We collected peripheral blood and nasal lining fluid at baseline, 4 weeks post-vaccination (7 days pre-inoculation), 2, 7, 14 and > 1 year post-inoculation. We measured the concentration of anti-serotype 6B Capsular Polysaccharide (CPS) Immunoglobulin G (IgG) and IgA antibodies in serum and nasal lining fluid using the World Health Organization (WHO) standardised enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)., Results: PCV13-vaccinated adults had higher serum IgG and nasal IgG/IgA anti-Spn6B CPS-specific binding antibodies than placebo recipients 4 to 6 weeks post-vaccination, which persisted for at least a year after vaccination. Nasal challenge with Spn6B did not significantly alter serum or nasal anti-CPS IgG binding antibody titers with or without experimental pneumococcal carriage. Pre-challenge titers of PCV13-induced serum IgG and nasal IgG/IgA anti-Spn6B CPS binding antibodies did not significantly differ between those that got experimentally colonised by Spn6B compared to those that did not., Conclusion: This study demonstrates that despite high PCV13 efficacy against experimental Spn6B carriage in young, healthy Malawian adults, robust vaccine-induced systemic and mucosal anti-Spn6B CPS binding antibodies did not directly relate to protection., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier India Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Providing emergency care in low resource settings relies on delivery by lower cadres of health workers (LCHW). We describe the development, implementation and mixed methods evaluation of a mobile health (mHealth) triage algorithm based on the WHO Emergency, Triage, Assessment, and Treatment (ETAT) for primary-level care. We conducted an observational study design of implementation research. Key stakeholders were engaged throughout implementation. Clinicians and LCHW at eight primary health centres in Blantyre district were trained to use an mHealth algorithm for triage. An mHealth patient surveillance system monitored patients from presentation through referral to tertiary and final outcome. A total of 209,174 children were recorded by ETAT between April 2017 and September 2018, and 155,931 had both recorded mHealth and clinician triage outcome data. Concordance between mHealth triage by lower cadres of HCW and clinician assessment was 81·6% (95% CI [81·4, 81·8]) over all outcomes (kappa: 0·535 (95% CI [0·530, 0·539]). Concordance for mHealth emergency triage was 0.31 with kappa 0.42. The most common mHealth recorded emergency sign was breathing difficulty (74·1% 95% CI [70·1, 77·9]) and priority sign was raised temperature (76·2% (95% CI [75·9, 76·6]). A total of 1,644 referrals out of 3,004 (54·7%) successfully reached the tertiary site. Both providers and carers expressed high levels of satisfaction with the mHealth ETAT pathway. An mHealth triage algorithm can be used by LCHWs with moderate concordance with clinician triage. Implementation of ETAT through an mHealth algorithm documented successful referrals from primary to tertiary, but half of referred patients did not reach the tertiary site. Potential harms of such systems, such as cases requiring referral being missed during triage, require further evaluation. The ASPIRE mHealth primary ETAT approach can be used to prioritise acute illness and support future resource planning within both district and national health system., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Desmond et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Ciprofloxacin is the first-line drug for treating typhoid fever in many countries in Africa with a high disease burden, but the emergence of non-susceptibility poses a challenge to public health programmes. Through enhanced surveillance as part of vaccine evaluation, we investigated the occurrence and potential determinants of ciprofloxacin non-susceptibility in Blantyre, Malawi., Methods: We conducted systematic surveillance of typhoid fever cases and antibiotic prescription in two health centres in Blantyre, Malawi, between Oct 1, 2016, and Oct 31, 2019, as part of the STRATAA and TyVAC studies. In addition, blood cultures were taken from eligible patients presenting at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, as part of routine diagnosis. Inclusion criteria were measured or reported fever, or clinical suspicion of sepsis. Microbiologically, we identified Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S Typhi) isolates with a ciprofloxacin non-susceptible phenotype from blood cultures, and used whole-genome sequencing to identify drug-resistance mutations and phylogenetic relationships. We constructed generalised linear regression models to investigate associations between the number of ciprofloxacin prescriptions given per month to study participants and the proportion of S Typhi isolates with quinolone resistance-determining region (QRDR) mutations in the following month., Findings: From 46 989 blood cultures from Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, 502 S Typhi isolates were obtained, 30 (6%) of which had either decreased ciprofloxacin susceptibility, or ciprofloxacin resistance. From 11 295 blood cultures from STRATAA and TyVAC studies, 241 microbiologically confirmed cases of typhoid fever were identified, and 198 isolates from 195 participants sequenced (mean age 12·8 years [SD 10·2], 53% female, 47% male). Between Oct 1, 2016, and Aug 31, 2019, of 177 typhoid fever cases confirmed by whole-genome sequencing, four (2%) were caused by S Typhi with QRDR mutations, compared with six (33%) of 18 cases between Sept 1 and Oct 31, 2019. This increase was associated with a preceding spike in ciprofloxacin prescriptions. Every additional prescription of ciprofloxacin given to study participants in the preceding month was associated with a 4·2% increase (95% CI 1·8-7·0) in the relative risk of isolating S Typhi with a QRDR mutation (p=0·0008). Phylogenetic analysis showed that S Typhi isolates with QRDR mutations from September and October, 2019, belonged to two distinct subclades encoding two different QRDR mutations, and were closely related (4-10 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) to susceptible S Typhi endemic to Blantyre., Interpretation: We postulate a causal relationship between increased ciprofloxacin prescriptions and an increase in fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility in S Typhi. Decreasing ciprofloxacin use by improving typhoid diagnostics, and reducing typhoid fever cases through the use of an efficacious vaccine, could help to limit the emergence of resistance., Funding: Wellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute for Health and Care Research (UK)., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Recent evidence shows rapidly changing tuberculosis (TB) epidemiology in Southern and Eastern Africa, with need for subdistrict prevalence estimates to guide targeted interventions. We conducted a pulmonary TB prevalence survey to estimate current TB burden in Blantyre city, Malawi. From May 2019 to March 2020, 115 households in middle/high-density residential Blantyre, were randomly-selected from each of 72 clusters. Consenting eligible participants (household residents ≥ 18 years) were interviewed, including for cough (any duration), and offered HIV testing and chest X-ray; participants with cough and/or abnormal X-ray provided two sputum samples for microscopy, Xpert MTB/Rif and mycobacterial culture. TB disease prevalence and risk factors for prevalent TB were calculated using complete-case analysis, multiple imputation, and inverse probability weighting. Of 20,899 eligible adults, 15,897 (76%) were interviewed, 13,490/15,897 (85%) had X-ray, and 1,120/1,394 (80%) sputum-eligible participants produced at least one specimen, giving 15,318 complete cases (5,895, 38% men). 29/15,318 had bacteriologically-confirmed TB (189 per 100,000 complete-case (cc) / 150 per 100,000 with inverse weighting (iw)). Men had higher burden (cc: 305 [95% CI:144-645] per 100,000) than women (cc: 117 [95% CI:65-211] per 100,000): cc adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.70 (1.26-5.78). Other significant risk factors for prevalent TB on complete-case analysis were working age (25-49 years) and previous TB treatment, but not HIV status. Multivariable analysis of imputed data was limited by small numbers, but previous TB and age group 25-49 years remained significantly associated with higher TB prevalence. Pulmonary TB prevalence for Blantyre was considerably lower than the 1,014 per 100,000 for urban Malawi in the 2013-14 national survey, at 150-189 per 100,000 adults, but some groups, notably men, remain disproportionately affected. TB case-finding is still needed for TB elimination in Blantyre, and similar urban centres, but should focus on reaching the highest risk groups, such as older men., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Feasey et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

We used national facility-level data from all government hospitals in Malawi to examine the effects of the second and third COVID-19 waves on maternal and neonatal outcomes and access to care during September 6, 2020-October 31, 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic affected maternal and neonatal health not only through direct infections but also through disruption of the health system, which could have wider indirect effects on critical maternal and neonatal outcomes. In an interrupted time series analysis, we noted a cumulative 15.4% relative increase (63 more deaths) in maternal deaths than anticipated across the 2 COVID-19 waves. We observed a 41% decrease in postnatal care visits at the onset of the second COVID-19 wave and 0.2% by the third wave, cumulative to 36,809 fewer visits than anticipated. Our findings demonstrate the need for strengthening health systems, particularly in resource-constrained settings, to prepare for future pandemic threats.

Background: Cryptosporidium is a gastrointestinal pathogen that presents a serious opportunistic infection in immunocompromised individuals including those living with human immunodeficiency syndrome. The CRYPTOFAZ trial, previously published, was conducted in Malawi to evaluate the efficacy of clofazimine in response to an unmet need for drugs to treat cryptosporidiosis in HIV populations. A combination of rapid diagnostic tests, ELISA, qPCR, and conventional sequencing were employed to detect Cryptosporidium in 586 individuals during pre-screening and monitor oocyst shedding and identify enteric co-pathogens in 22 enrolled/randomized participants during the in-patient period and follow-up visits., Methodology: Oocyst shedding as measured by qPCR was used to determine primary trial outcomes, however pathogen was detected even at trial days 41-55 in individuals randomized to either clofazimine or placebo arms of the study. Therefore, in this work we re-examine the trial outcomes and conclusions in light of data from the other diagnostics, particularly ELISA. ELISA data was normalized between experiments prior to comparison to qPCR. The amount of all identified enteric pathogens was examined to determine if co-pathogens other than Cryptosporidium were major causative agents to a participant's diarrhea., Conclusion: ELISA had higher sample-to-sample variability and proved to be equally or less sensitive than qPCR in detecting Cryptosporidium positive samples. Compared to qPCR, ELISA had equal or greater specificity in detecting Cryptosporidium negative samples. Sequencing identified several Cryptosporidium species including viatorum which has never been identified in Malawi and Southern Africa. In addition to Cryptosporidium, enterotoxigenic E. coli was also identified as a pathogen in diarrheagenic amounts in 4 out of 22 participants., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Nyirenda et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: The effect of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccine implementation in Malawi is threatened by absence of herd effect. There is persistent vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage in both vaccinated children and the wider community. We aimed to use a human infection study to measure 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) efficacy against pneumococcal carriage., Methods: We did a double-blind, parallel-arm, randomised controlled trial investigating the efficacy of PCV13 or placebo against experimental pneumococcal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6B (strain BHN418) among healthy adults (aged 18-40 years) from Blantyre, Malawi. We randomly assigned participants (1:1) to receive PCV13 or placebo. PCV13 and placebo doses were prepared by an unmasked pharmacist to maintain research team and participant masking with identification only by a randomisation identification number and barcode. 4 weeks after receiving either PCV13 or placebo, participants were challenged with 20 000 colony forming units (CFUs) per naris, 80 000 CFUs per naris, or 160 000 CFUs per naris by intranasal inoculation. The primary endpoint was experimental pneumococcal carriage, established by culture of nasal wash at 2, 7, and 14 days. Vaccine efficacy was estimated per protocol by means of a log-binomial model adjusting for inoculation dose. The trial is registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, PACTR202008503507113, and is now closed., Findings: Recruitment commenced on April 27, 2021 and the final visit was completed on Sept 12, 2022. 204 participants completed the study protocol (98 PCV13, 106 placebo). There were lower carriage rates in the vaccine group at all three inoculation doses (0 of 21 vs two [11%] of 19 at 20 000 CFUs per naris; six [18%] of 33 vs 12 [29%] of 41 at 80 000 CFUs per naris, and four [9%] of 44 vs 16 [35%] of 46 at 160 000 CFUs per naris). The overall carriage rate was lower in the vaccine group compared with the placebo group (ten [10%] of 98 vs 30 [28%] of 106; Fisher's p value=0·0013) and the vaccine efficacy against carriage was estimated at 62·4% (95% CI 27·7-80·4). There were no severe adverse events related to vaccination or inoculation of pneumococci., Interpretation: This is, to our knowledge, the first human challenge study to test the efficacy of a pneumococcal vaccine against pneumococcal carriage in Africa, which can now be used to establish vaccine-induced correlates of protection and compare alternative strategies to prevent pneumococcal carriage. This powerful tool could lead to new means to enhance reduction in pneumococcal carriage after vaccination., Funding: Wellcome Trust., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests DF declares grant funding from Pfizer to her institution for separate projects and consulting fees from Pfizer, MSD, and Sanofi. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Despite decades of genetic studies on late-onset Alzheimer's disease, the underlying molecular mechanisms remain unclear. To better comprehend its complex etiology, we use an integrative approach to build robust predictive (causal) network models using two large human multi-omics datasets. We delineate bulk-tissue gene expression into single cell-type gene expression and integrate clinical and pathologic traits, single nucleotide variation, and deconvoluted gene expression for the construction of cell type-specific predictive network models. Here, we focus on neuron-specific network models and prioritize 19 predicted key drivers modulating Alzheimer's pathology, which we then validate by knockdown in human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived neurons. We find that neuronal knockdown of 10 of the 19 targets significantly modulates levels of amyloid-beta and/or phosphorylated tau peptides, most notably JMJD6. We also confirm our network structure by RNA sequencing in the neurons following knockdown of each of the 10 targets, which additionally predicts that they are upstream regulators of REST and VGF. Our work thus identifies robust neuronal key drivers of the Alzheimer's-associated network state which may represent therapeutic targets with relevance to both amyloid and tau pathology in Alzheimer's disease., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: The B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in the fourth COVID-19 pandemic wave across the southern African region, including Malawi. The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and their association with epidemiological trends of hospitalisations and deaths are needed to aid locally relevant public health policy decisions., Methods: We conducted a population-based serosurvey from December 27, 2021 to January 17, 2022, in 7 districts across Malawi to determine the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Serum samples were tested for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain using WANTAI SARS-CoV-2 Receptor Binding Domain total antibody commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). We also evaluated COVID-19 epidemiologic trends in Malawi, including cases, hospitalisations and deaths from April 1, 2021 through April 30, 2022, collected using the routine national COVID-19 reporting system. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to investigate the factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity., Findings: Serum samples were analysed from 4619 participants (57% female; 60% aged 18-50 years), of whom 878/3794 (23%) of vaccine eligible adults had received a single dose of any COVID-19 vaccine. The overall assay-adjusted seroprevalence was 83.7% (95% confidence interval (CI), 79.3%-93.4%). Seroprevalence was lowest among children <13 years of age (66%) and highest among adults 18-50 years of age (82%). Seroprevalence was higher among vaccinated compared to unvaccinated participants (1 dose, 94% vs. 77%, adjusted odds ratio 4.89 [95% CI, 3.43-7.22]; 2 doses, 97% vs. 77%, aOR 6.62 [95% CI, 4.14-11.3]). Urban residents were more likely to be seropositive than those from rural settings (91% vs. 78%, aOR 2.76 [95% CI, 2.16-3.55]). There was at least a two-fold reduction in the proportion of hospitalisations and deaths among the reported cases in the fourth wave compared to the third wave (hospitalisations, 10.7% (95% CI, 10.2-11.3) vs. 4.86% (95% CI, 4.52-5.23), p < 0.0001; deaths, 3.48% (95% CI, 3.18-3.81) vs. 1.15% (95% CI, 1.00-1.34), p < 0.0001)., Interpretation: We report reduction in proportion of hospitalisations and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Omicron variant dominated wave in Malawi, in the context of high SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and low COVID-19 vaccination coverage. These findings suggest that COVID-19 vaccination policy in high seroprevalence settings may need to be amended from mass campaigns to targeted vaccination of reported at-risk populations., Funding: Supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-039481)., Competing Interests: All authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2022 The Author(s).)

In sub-Saharan Africa, simple biomarkers of liver fibrosis are needed to scale-up hepatitis B treatment. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis of 3,548 chronic hepatitis B patients living in eight sub-Saharan African countries to assess the World Health Organization-recommended aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index and two other fibrosis biomarkers using a Bayesian bivariate model. Transient elastography was used as a reference test with liver stiffness measurement thresholds at 7.9 and 12.2kPa indicating significant fibrosis and cirrhosis, respectively. At the World Health Organization-recommended cirrhosis threshold (>2.0), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index had sensitivity (95% credible interval) of only 16.5% (12.5-20.5). We identified an optimised aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index rule-in threshold (>0.65) for liver stiffness measurement >12.2kPa with sensitivity and specificity of 56.2% (50.5-62.2) and 90.0% (89.0-91.0), and an optimised rule-out threshold (<0.36) with sensitivity and specificity of 80.6% (76.1-85.1) and 64.3% (62.8-65.8). Here we show that the World Health Organization-recommended aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index threshold is inappropriately high in sub-Saharan Africa; improved rule-in and rule-out thresholds can optimise treatment recommendations in this setting., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Typhoid conjugate vaccines are being introduced in low-income and middle-income countries to prevent typhoid illness in children. Vaccine effectiveness studies assess vaccine performance after introduction. The test-negative design is a commonly used method to estimate vaccine effectiveness that has not been applied to typhoid vaccines because of concerns over blood culture insensitivity. The overall aim of the study was to evaluate the appropriateness of using a test-negative design to assess typhoid Vi polysaccharide-tetanus toxoid conjugate vaccine (Vi-TT) effectiveness using a gold standard randomised controlled trial database., Methods: Using blood culture data from a randomised controlled trial of Vi-TT in Malawi, we simulated a test-negative design to derive vaccine effectiveness estimates using three different approaches and compared these to randomised trial efficacy results. In the randomised trial, 27 882 children aged 9 months to 12 years were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive a single dose of Vi-TT or meningococcal capsular group A conjugate vaccine between Feb 21 and Sept 27, 2018, and were followed up for blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever until Sept 30, 2021., Findings: For all three test-negative design approaches, vaccine effectiveness estimates (test-negative design A, 80·3% [95% CI 66·2 to 88·5] vs test-negative design B, 80·5% [66·5 to 88·6] vs test-negative design C, 80·4% [66·9 to 88·4]) were almost identical to the randomised trial results (80·4% [95% CI 66·4 to 88·5]). Receipt of Vi-TT did not affect the risk of non-typhoid fever (vaccine efficacy against non-typhoid fever -0·4% [95% CI -4·9 to 3·9] vs -1% [-5·6 to 3·3] vs -2·5% [-6·4 to 1·3] for test-negative design A, test-negative design B, and test-negative design C, respectively)., Interpretation: This study validates the test-negative design core assumption for typhoid vaccine effectiveness estimation and shows the accuracy and precision of the estimates compared with the randomised controlled trial. These results show that the test-negative design is suitable for assessing typhoid conjugate vaccine effectiveness in post-introduction studies using blood culture surveillance., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests YL, AJD, KMN, SD, MBL, and LPJ receive salary from the Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium (TyVAC) grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. KMN is a member of the WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization. MV reports grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, and Medical Research Council. NF reports grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Wellcome and serves as a steering group member of a Gates-funded study of pneumococcal vaccine schedules in The Gambia. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) induce serotype-specific IgG antibodies, effectively reducing vaccine-serotype carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). IgG production wanes approximately 1 month after vaccination in absence of serotype-specific exposure. With uncertainty surrrounding correlate of protection (CoP) estimates and with persistent vaccine-serotype carriage and vaccine-serotype IPD after PCV13 introduction, we aimed to profile population-level immunogenicity among children younger than 5 years in Blantyre, Malawi., Methods: For this serosurveillance study, we used a random subset of samples from a prospective population-based serosurvey in Blantyre, Malawi, done between Dec 16, 2016, and June 27, 2018. Sample selection was based on age category optimisation among children younger than 5 years, adequate sample volume, and available budget. We measured serotype-specific IgGs against the 13 vaccine serotypes (1, 3, 4, 5, 6A, 6B, 7F, 9V, 14, 18C, 19A, 19F, and 23F) and two non-vaccine serotypes (12F and 33F), as well as IgGs against three pneumococcal proteins (PsaA, NanA, and Ply), using ELISA and a direct-binding electrochemiluminescence-based multiplex assay. We estimated population-level, serotype-specific immunogenicity profiles using a linear spline regression model. Analyses included samples stratified to 20 3-month age strata (eg, age <3 months to 57-59 months)., Findings: We evaluated 638 plasma samples: 556 primary samples and 82 unique secondary samples (each linked to one primary sample). Immunogenicity profiles revealed a consistent pattern among vaccine serotypes except serotype 3: a vaccine-induced IgG peak followed by waning to a nadir and subsequent increase in titre. For serotype 3, we observed no apparent vaccine-induced increase. Heterogeneity in parameters included age range at post-vaccination nadir (from 11·2 months [19A] to 27·3 months [7F]). The age at peak IgG titre ranged from 2·69 months (5) to 6·64 months (14). Titres dropped below CoPs against IPD among nine vaccine serotypes (1, 3, 4, 5, 6B, 7F, 9V, 18C, and 23F) and below CoPs against carriage for ten vaccine serotypes (1, 4, 5, 6B, 7F, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, and 23F). Increasing antibody concentrations among older children and seroincident events were consistent with ongoing vaccine-serotype exposure., Interpretation: A 3 + 0 PCV13 schedule with high uptake has not led to sustained population-level antibody immunity beyond the first year of life. Indeed, post-vaccine antibody concentrations dropped below putative CoPs for several vaccine serotypes, potentially contributing to persistent vaccine-serotype carriage and residual vaccine-serotype IPD in Malawi and other similar settings. Policy decisions should consider alternative vaccine strategies, including a booster dose, to achieve sustained vaccine-induced antibody titres, and thus control., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome UK, and National Institute for Health and Care Research., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and severe complication of community acquired infection, but data on impact in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are lacking. We determined prevalence, risk factors and outcomes of infection associated kidney disease in adults in Malawi., Design: A prospective cohort study of adults admitted to hospital with infection, from February 2021 to June 2021, collecting demographic, clinical, laboratory and ultrasonography data., Setting: Adults admitted to a regional hospital in Southern Region, Malawi., Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: The primary outcomes were prevalence of kidney disease and mortality by Cox proportional hazard model. AKI was defined according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guidelines. Secondary outcomes were risk factors for AKI identified by logistic regression and prevalence of chronic kidney disease at 3 months., Results: We recruited 101 patients presenting to hospital with infection. Median age was 38 years (IQR: 29-48 years), 88 had known HIV status of which 53 (60%) were living with HIV, and of these 42 (79%) were receiving antiretroviral therapy. AKI was present in 33/101 at baseline, of which 18/33 (55%) cases were severe (KDIGO stage 3). At 3 months, 28/94 (30%) participants had died, while 7/61 (11%) of survivors had chronic kidney disease. AKI was associated with older age (age: 60 years vs 40 years, OR: 3.88, 95% CI 1.82 to 16.64), and HIV positivity (OR: 4.08, 95% CI 1.28 to 15.67). Living with HIV was independently associated with death (HR: 3.97, 95% CI 1.07 to 14.69)., Conclusions: Kidney disease is common among hospitalised adults with infection in Malawi, with significant kidney impairment identified at 3 months. Our study highlights the difficulty in diagnosing acute and chronic kidney disease, and the need for more accurate methods than creatinine based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) equations for populations in Africa. Patients with kidney impairment identified in hospital should be prioritised for follow-up., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Community-based screening for tuberculosis (TB) could improve detection but is resource intensive. We set out to evaluate the accuracy of computer-aided TB screening using digital chest X-ray (CXR) to determine if this approach met target product profiles (TPP) for community-based screening. CXR images from participants in the 2016 Kenya National TB Prevalence Survey were evaluated using CAD4TBv6 (Delft Imaging), giving a probabilistic score for pulmonary TB ranging from 0 (low probability) to 99 (high probability). We constructed a Bayesian latent class model to estimate the accuracy of CAD4TBv6 screening compared to bacteriologically-confirmed TB across CAD4TBv6 threshold cut-offs, incorporating data on Clinical Officer CXR interpretation, participant demographics (age, sex, TB symptoms, previous TB history), and sputum results. We compared model-estimated sensitivity and specificity of CAD4TBv6 to optimum and minimum TPPs. Of 63,050 prevalence survey participants, 61,848 (98%) had analysable CXR images, and 8,966 (14.5%) underwent sputum bacteriological testing; 298 had bacteriologically-confirmed pulmonary TB. Median CAD4TBv6 scores for participants with bacteriologically-confirmed TB were significantly higher (72, IQR: 58-82.75) compared to participants with bacteriologically-negative sputum results (49, IQR: 44-57, p<0.0001). CAD4TBv6 met the optimum TPP; with the threshold set to achieve a mean sensitivity of 95% (optimum TPP), specificity was 83.3%, (95% credible interval [CrI]: 83.0%-83.7%, CAD4TBv6 threshold: 55). There was considerable variation in accuracy by participant characteristics, with older individuals and those with previous TB having lowest specificity. CAD4TBv6 met the optimal TPP for TB community screening. To optimise screening accuracy and efficiency of confirmatory sputum testing, we recommend that an adaptive approach to threshold setting is adopted based on participant characteristics., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2022 Mungai et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Tuberculosis remains a major public health priority and is the second leading cause of mortality from infectious disease worldwide. TB case detection rates are unacceptably low for men, the elderly and children. Disruptions in TB services due to the COVID-19 pandemic may have exacerbated these and other inequalities., Methods: We modelled trends in age- and sex- disaggregated case notifications for all forms of new and relapse TB reported to the World Health Organization for 45 high TB, TB/HIV and MDR-TB burden countries from 2013 to 2019. We compared trend predicted notifications to observed notifications in 2020 to estimate the number of people with TB likely to have missed or delayed diagnosis. We estimated the risk ratio (RR) of missed or delayed TB diagnosis for children (aged &lt; 15 years) or the elderly (aged ≥ 65 years) compared to adults (aged 15-64 years) and women compared to men (both aged ≥ 15 years) using a random-effects meta-analysis., Results: An estimated 195,449 children (95% confidence interval, CI: 189,673-201,562, 37.8% of an expected 517,168), 1,126,133 adults (CI: 1,107,146-1,145,704, 21.8% of an expected 5,170,592) and 235,402 elderly (CI: 228,108-243,202, 28.5% of an expected 826,563) had a missed or delayed TB diagnosis in 2020. This included 511,546 women (CI: 499,623-523,869, 22.7%, of an expected 2,250,097) and 863,916 men (CI: 847,591-880,515, 23.0% of an expected 3,763,363). There was no evidence globally that the risk of having TB diagnosis missed or delayed was different for children and adults (RR: 1.09, CI: 0.41-2.91), the elderly and adults (RR: 1.40, CI: 0.62-3.16) or men and women (RR: 0.59, CI: 0.25-1.42). However, there was evidence of disparities in risk by age and/or sex in some WHO regions and in most countries., Conclusions: There is no evidence at an aggregate global level of any difference by age or sex in the risk of disruption to TB diagnosis as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in many countries, disruptions in TB services have been greater for some groups than others. It is important to recognise these context-specific inequalities when prioritising key populations for catch-up campaigns., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Outcomes of omicron-associated COVID-19 in pregnancy have not been reported from low-resource settings, and data from sub-Saharan Africa before the emergence of omicron are scarce. Using a national maternal surveillance platform (MATSurvey), we aimed to compare maternal and neonatal outcomes of COVID-19 in Malawi during the omicron wave to the preceding waves of beta and delta., Methods: All pregnant and recently pregnant patients, up to 42 days following delivery, admitted to 33 health-care facilities throughout Malawi with symptomatic, test-proven COVID-19 during the second (beta [B.1.351]: January to April, 2021), third (delta [B.1.617.2]: June to October, 2021), and fourth (omicron [B.1.1.529]: December 2021 to March, 2022) waves were included, with no age restrictions. Demographic and clinical features, maternal outcomes of interest (severe maternal outcome [a composite of maternal near-miss events and maternal deaths] and maternal death), and neonatal outcomes of interest (stillbirth and death during maternal stay in the health-care facility of enrolment) were compared between the fourth wave and the second and third waves using Fisher's exact test. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for maternal outcomes were estimated using mixed-effects logistic regression., Findings: Between Jan 1, 2021, and March 31, 2022, 437 patients admitted to 28 health-care facilities conducting MATSurvey had symptoms of COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed in 261 patients; of whom 76 (29%) had a severe maternal outcome and 45 (17%) died. These two outcomes were less common during the fourth wave (omicron dominance) than the second wave (adjusted OR of severe maternal outcome: 3·96 [95% CI 1·22-12·83], p=0·022; adjusted OR of maternal death: 5·65 [1·54-20·69], p=0·0090) and the third wave (adjusted OR: 3·18 [1·03-9·80], p=0·044; adjusted OR: 3·52 [0·98-12·60], p=0·053). Shortness of breath was the only symptom associated with poor maternal outcomes of interest (p<0·0001), and was less frequently reported in the fourth wave (23%) than in the second wave (51%; p=0·0007) or third wave (50%; p=0·0004). The demographic characteristics and medical histories of patients were similar across the three waves. During the second and third waves, 12 (13%) of 92 singleton neonates were stillborn or died during maternal stay in the health-care facility of enrolment, compared with 0 of the 25 born in the fourth wave (p=0·067 vs preceding waves combined)., Interpretation: Maternal and neonatal outcomes from COVID-19 were less severe during the fourth wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Malawi, during omicron dominance, than during the preceding beta and delta waves., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and the National Institute for Health and Care Research., Translation: For the Chichewa translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The Wellcome Trust has provided a Strategic Award to the Malawi–Liverpool–Wellcome Clinical Research Programme (206545/Z/17/Z) that, in part, covers the salary and operational costs of the Statistical Support Unit at the programme, led by MYRH. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Hepatitis B is the leading cause of cirrhosis and liver cancer in sub-Saharan Africa. To reduce mortality, antiviral treatment programs are needed. We estimated prevalence, vaccine impact, and need for antiviral treatment in Blantyre, Malawi., Methods: We conducted a household study in 2016-2018. We selected individuals from a census using random sampling and estimated age-sex-standardized hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroprevalence. Impact of infant hepatitis B vaccination was estimated by binomial log-linear regression comparing individuals born before and after vaccine implementation. In HBsAg-positive adults, eligibility for antiviral therapy was assessed., Results: Of 97386 censused individuals, 6073 (median age 18 years; 56.7% female) were sampled. HBsAg seroprevalence was 5.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.3%-6.1%) among adults and 0.3% (95% CI, .1%-.6%) among children born after vaccine introduction. Estimated vaccine impact was 95.8% (95% CI, 70.3%-99.4%). Of HBsAg-positive adults, 26% were HIV-positive. Among HIV-negative individuals, 3%, 6%, and 9% were eligible for hepatitis B treatment by WHO, European, and American hepatology association criteria, respectively., Conclusions: Infant HBV vaccination has been highly effective in reducing HBsAg prevalence in urban Malawi. Up to 9% of HBsAg-positive HIV-negative adults are eligible, but have an unmet need, for antiviral therapy., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. N. B.-Z. reports grants from Merck-Sharp-Dohme, Johnson & Johnson, and Serum Institute of India, outside the submitted work. A. M. G. reports grants and personal fees from Roche Pharma Research and Early Development, ViiV Healthcare, and Gilead; personal fees from Janssen; and consulting fees from GSK, outside the submitted work. All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Streptococcus pneumoniae is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality due to community acquired pneumonia, bacterial meningitis and bacteraemia worldwide. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines protect against invasive disease, but are expensive to manufacture, limited in serotype coverage, associated with serotype replacement, and demonstrate reduced effectiveness against mucosal colonisation.  For Malawi, nasopharyngeal carriage of vaccine-type pneumococci is common in vaccinated children despite national roll-out of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) since 2011. Our team has safely transferred an established experimental human pneumococcal carriage method from Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine to the Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme, Malawi. This study will determine potential immunological mechanisms for the differential effects of PCV13 on nasal carriage between healthy Malawian and UK populations. We will conduct a double-blinded randomised controlled trial to vaccinate (1:1) participants with either PCV13 or control (normal saline). After a period of one month, participants will be inoculated with S. pneumoniae serotype 6B to experimentally induce nasal carriage using the EHPC method. Subsequently, participants will be invited for a second inoculation after one year to determine longer-term vaccine-induced immunological effects. Primary endpoint: detection of inoculated pneumococci by classical culture from nasal wash recovered from the participants after pneumococcal challenge. Secondary endpoints: local and systemic innate, humoral and cellular responses to PCV-13 with and without pneumococcal nasal carriage The primary objective of this controlled human infection model study is to determine if PCV-13 vaccination is protective against pneumococcal carriage in healthy adult Malawian volunteers. This study will help us to understand the observed differences in PCV-13 efficacy between populations and inform the design of future vaccines relevant to the Malawian population. Trial Registration: Pan African Clinical Trial Registry (REF: PACTR202008503507113)., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2022 Morton B et al.)

Aims: This study evaluated detection methods for Salmonella Typhi (S. Typhi) in the environment, to establish a novel pathway from field sampling to isolation of viable organisms and molecular confirmation from complex environmental samples, thus enabling environmental surveillance of typhoid., Methods and Results: Multiple media were assessed using clinical isolates from the Public Health England's (PHE) Culture collection. The culture pathway selected consisted of a primary 2% bile broth and secondary Selenite F broth, followed by modified Chromogenic Agar for Salmonella Esterase (mCASE). A qPCR assay was adapted from a validated S. Typhi PCR panel for confirmation of isolates, with comparison to biochemical and serological tests showing good specificity. Sampling locations in Blantyre, Malawi were used to compare sampling methods. Viable S. Typhi were isolated from a mixture of trap and grab river water samples on six occasions., Conclusions: Culture of viable S. Typhi from environmental samples was possible using effective capture and culture techniques., Significance and Impact of Study: Whilst several studies have attempted to detect S. Typhi from the environment, this is the first successful attempt to isolate the organism from river water since the 1980s. Supplementing clinical data with environmental screening offers the potential for enhanced surveillance, which might inform interventions and assess vaccination programmes., (© 2021 The Authors. Journal of Applied Microbiology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for Applied Microbiology.)

Rotavirus is the major cause of severe gastroenteritis in children aged <5 years. Introduction of the G1P[8] Rotarix ® rotavirus vaccine in Malawi in 2012 has reduced rotavirus-associated hospitalisations and diarrhoeal mortality. However, the impact of rotavirus vaccine on the severity of gastroenteritis presented in children requiring hospitalisation remains unknown. We conducted a hospital-based surveillance study to assess the impact of Rotarix ® vaccination on the severity of gastroenteritis presented by Malawian children. Stool samples were collected from children aged <5 years who required hospitalisation with acute gastroenteritis from December 2011 to October 2019. Gastroenteritis severity was determined using Ruuska and Vesikari scores. Rotavirus was detected using enzyme immunoassay. Rotavirus genotypes were determined using nested RT-PCR. Associations between Rotarix ® vaccination and gastroenteritis severity were investigated using adjusted linear regression. In total, 3159 children were enrolled. After adjusting for mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), age, gender and receipt of other vaccines, all-cause gastroenteritis severity scores were 2.21 units lower ( p < 0.001) among Rotarix ® -vaccinated ( n = 2224) compared to Rotarix ® -unvaccinated children ( n = 935). The reduction in severity score was observed against every rotavirus genotype, although the magnitude was smaller among those infected with G12P[6] compared to the remaining genotypes ( p = 0.011). Each one-year increment in age was associated with a decrease of 0.43 severity score ( p < 0.001). Our findings provide additional evidence on the impact of Rotarix ® in Malawi, lending further support to Malawi's Rotarix ® programme.

Background: Inclusive universal health coverage requires access to quality health care without financial barriers. Receipt of palliative care after advanced cancer diagnosis might reduce household poverty, but evidence from low-income and middle-income settings is sparse., Methods: In this prospective study, the primary objective was to investigate total household costs of cancer-related health care after a diagnosis of advanced cancer, with and without the receipt of palliative care. Households comprising patients and their unpaid family caregiver were recruited into a cohort study at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital in Malawi, between Jan 16 and July 31, 2019. Costs of cancer-related health-care use (including palliative care) and health-related quality-of-life were recorded over 6 months. Regression analysis explored associations between receipt of palliative care and total household costs on health care as a proportion of household income. Catastrophic costs, defined as 20% or more of total household income, sale of assets and loans taken out (dissaving), and their association with palliative care were computed., Findings: We recruited 150 households. At 6 months, data from 89 (59%) of 150 households were available, comprising 89 patients (median age 50 years, 79% female) and 64 caregivers (median age 40 years, 73% female). Patients in 55 (37%) of the 150 households died and six (4%) were lost to follow-up. 19 (21%) of 89 households received palliative care. Catastrophic costs were experienced by nine (47%) of 19 households who received palliative care versus 48 (69%) of 70 households who did not (relative risk 0·69, 95% CI 0·42 to 1·14, p=0·109). Palliative care was associated with substantially reduced dissaving (median US$11, IQR 0 to 30 vs $34, 14 to 75; p=0·005). The mean difference in total household costs on cancer-related health care with receipt of palliative care was -36% (95% CI -94 to 594; p=0·707)., Interpretation: Vulnerable households in low-income countries are subject to catastrophic health-related costs following a diagnosis of advanced cancer. Palliative care might result in reduced dissaving in these households. Further consideration of the economic benefits of palliative care is justified., Funding: Wellcome Trust; National Institute for Health Research; and EMMS International., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: By August 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic has been less severe in sub-Saharan Africa than elsewhere. In Malawi, there have been three subsequent epidemic waves. We therefore aimed to describe the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in Malawi., Methods: We measured the seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies amongst randomly selected blood transfusion donor sera in Malawi from January 2020 to July 2021 using a cross-sectional study design. In a subset, we also assessed in vitro neutralisation against the original variant (D614G WT) and the Beta variant., Results: A total of 5085 samples were selected from the blood donor database, of which 4075 (80.1%) were aged 20-49 years. Of the total, 1401 were seropositive. After adjustment for assay characteristics and applying population weights, seropositivity reached peaks in October 2020 (18.5%) and May 2021 (64.9%) reflecting the first two epidemic waves. Unlike the first wave, both urban and rural areas had high seropositivity in the second wave, Balaka (rural, 66.2%, April 2021), Blantyre (urban, 75.6%, May 2021), Lilongwe (urban, 78.0%, May 2021), and Mzuzu (urban, 74.6%, April 2021). Blantyre and Mzuzu also show indications of the start of a third pandemic wave with seroprevalence picking up again in July 2021 (Blantyre, 81.7%; Mzuzu, 71.0%). More first wave sera showed in vitro neutralisation activity against the original variant (78% [7/9]) than the beta variant (22% [2/9]), while more second wave sera showed neutralisation activity against the beta variant (75% [12/16]) than the original variant (63% [10/16])., Conclusion: The findings confirm extensive SARS-CoV-2 exposure in Malawi over two epidemic waves with likely poor cross-protection to reinfection from the first on the second wave. The dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 exposure will therefore need to be taken into account in the formulation of the COVID-19 vaccination policy in Malawi and across the region. Future studies should use an adequate sample size for the assessment of neutralisation activity across a panel of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern/interest to estimate community immunity., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Objective: To investigate trends in population incidence of HIV-positive hospital admission and risk of in-hospital death among adults living with HIV between 2012 and 2019 in Blantyre, Malawi., Design: Population cohort study using an existing electronic health information system ('SPINE') at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital and Blantyre census data., Methods: We used multiple imputation and negative binomial regression to estimate population age-specific and sex-specific admission rates over time. We used a log-binomial model to investigate trends in risk of in-hospital death., Results: Of 32 814 adult medical admissions during Q4 2012--Q3 2019, HIV status was recorded for 75.6%. HIV-positive admissions decreased substantially between 2012 and 2019. After imputation for missing data, HIV-positive admissions were highest in Q3 2013 (173 per 100 000 adult Blantyre residents) and lowest in Q3 2019 (53 per 100 000 residents). An estimated 10 818 fewer than expected people with HIV (PWH) [95% confidence interval (CI) 10 068-11 568] were admitted during 2012-2019 compared with the counterfactual situation where admission rates stayed the same throughout this period. Absolute reductions were greatest for women aged 25-34 years (2264 fewer HIV-positive admissions, 95% CI 2002-2526). In-hospital mortality for PWH was 23.5%, with no significant change over time in any age-sex group, and no association with antiretroviral therapy (ART) use at admission., Conclusion: Rates of admission for adult PWH decreased substantially, likely because of large increases in community provision of HIV diagnosis, treatment and care. However, HIV-positive in-hospital deaths remain unacceptably high, despite improvements in ART coverage. A concerted research and implementation agenda is urgently needed to reduce inpatient deaths among PWH., (Copyright © 2021 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Persistent carriage of pneumococcal vaccine serotypes has occurred after introduction of PCV13 vaccination in Africa but the mechanisms are unclear. We tested the feasibility of using a human pneumococcal challenge model in Malawi to understand immune correlates of protection against carriage and to trial alternative vaccine candidates. We aimed to identify a dose of Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6B sufficient to establish nasopharyngeal carriage in 40% of those nasally inoculated and evaluate nasal mucosal immunity before and after experimental inoculation., Methods: Healthy student volunteers were recruited and inoculated with saline, 20,000 CFU/naris or 80,000 CFU/naris of Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6B Post inoculation carriage was determined by nasal sampling for bacterial culture and lytA PCR. Immunological responses were measured in serum and nasal mucosal biopsies before and after bacterial inoculation., Findings: Twenty-four subjects completed the feasibility protocol with minimal side effects. pneumococcal carriage was established in 0/6, 3/9 and 4/9 subjects in the saline, 20,000 CFU/naris and 80,000 CFU/naris groups, respectively. Incidental (natural) serotype carriage was common (7/24 participants carried non-6B strains, 29.2%. Experimentally induced type 6B pneumococcal carriage was associated with pro-inflammatory nasal mucosal responses prior to inoculation and altered mucosal recruitment of immune cells post bacterial challenge. There was no association with serum anti-capsular antibody., Interpretation: The serotype 6B experimental human pneumococcal carriage model is feasible in Malawi and can now be used to determine the immunological correlates of protection against carriage and vaccine efficacy in this population., Funding: None., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Streptococcus pneumoniae is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality due to community acquired pneumonia, bacterial meningitis and bacteraemia worldwide. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines protect against invasive disease, but are expensive to manufacture, limited in serotype coverage, associated with serotype replacement, and demonstrate reduced effectiveness against mucosal colonisation.  For Malawi, nasopharyngeal carriage of vaccine-type pneumococci is common in vaccinated children despite national roll-out of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) since 2011. Our team has safely transferred an established experimental human pneumococcal carriage method from Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine to the Malawi-Liverpool Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme, Malawi. This study will determine potential immunological mechanisms for the differential effects of PCV13 on nasal carriage between healthy Malawian and UK populations. We will conduct a double-blinded randomised controlled trial to vaccinate (1:1) participants with either PCV13 or control (normal saline). After a period of one month, participants will be inoculated with S. pneumoniae serotype 6B to experimentally induce nasal carriage using the EHPC method. Subsequently, participants will be invited for a second inoculation after one year to determine longer-term vaccine-induced immunological effects. Primary endpoint: detection of inoculated pneumococci by classical culture from nasal wash recovered from the participants after pneumococcal challenge. Secondary endpoints: local and systemic innate, humoral and cellular responses to PCV-13 with and without pneumococcal nasal carriage The primary objective of this controlled human infection model study is to determine if PCV-13 vaccination is protective against pneumococcal carriage in healthy adult Malawian volunteers. This study will help us to understand the observed differences in PCV-13 efficacy between populations and inform the design of future vaccines relevant to the Malawian population. Trial Registration: Pan African Clinical Trial Registry (REF: PACTR202008503507113)., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2021 Morton B et al.)

Background: There are limited data on healthcare-associated infections (HAI) from African countries like Malawi., Aim: We undertook a point prevalence survey of HAI and antimicrobial use in the surgery department of Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH) in Malawi and ascertained the associated risk factors for HAI., Methods: A cross-sectional point prevalence survey (PPS) was carried out in the surgery department of QECH. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control PPS protocol version 5.3 was adapted to our setting and used as a data collection tool., Findings: 105 patients were included in the analysis; median age was 34 (IQR: 24-47) years and 55.2% patients were male. Point prevalence of HAI was 11.4% (n=12/105) (95% CI: 6.0%-19.1%), including four surgical site infections, four urinary tract infections, three bloodstream infections and one bone/joint infection. We identified the following risk factors for HAI; length-of-stay between 8 and 14 days (OR=14.4, 95% CI: 1.65-124.7, p=0.0143), presence of indwelling urinary catheter (OR=8.3, 95% CI: 2.24-30.70, p=0.003) and history of surgery in the past 30 days (OR=5.11, 95% CI: 1.46-17.83, p=0.011). 29/105 patients (27.6%) were prescribed antimicrobials, most commonly the 3rd-generation cephalosporin, ceftriaxone (n=15)., Conclusion: The prevalence rates of HAI and antimicrobial use in surgery wards at QECH are relatively high. Hospital infection prevention and control measures need to be strengthened to reduce the burden of HAI at QECH., (© 2021 The Authors.)

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic might affect tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and patient care. We analyzed a citywide electronic TB register in Blantyre, Malawi and interviewed TB officers. Malawi did not have an official COVID-19 lockdown but closed schools and borders on March 23, 2020. In an interrupted time series analysis, we noted an immediate 35.9% reduction in TB notifications in April 2020; notifications recovered to near prepandemic numbers by December 2020. However, 333 fewer cumulative TB notifications were received than anticipated. Women and girls were affected more (30.7% fewer cases) than men and boys (20.9% fewer cases). Fear of COVID-19 infection, temporary facility closures, inadequate personal protective equipment, and COVID-19 stigma because of similar symptoms to TB were mentioned as reasons for fewer people being diagnosed with TB. Public health measures could benefit control of both TB and COVID-19, but only if TB diagnostic services remain accessible and are considered safe to attend.

Background: The relationship between asymptomatic Salmonella exposure within the gastrointestinal tract and Salmonella bacteraemia is poorly understood, in part due to the low sensitivity of stool culture and the lack of validated molecular diagnostic tests for the detection of Salmonella in the stool. The study aimed to determine a reliable molecular diagnostic test for Salmonella in stool specimens. Methods: We optimised an in-house monoplex real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the detection of Salmonella ttr and InvA genes in stool by including a selenite broth pre-culture step for Salmonella before DNA extraction and validated their specificity against other local common pathogens. Then we assessed their performance against a well-validated multiplex PCR targeting the same ttr and InvA genes and against stool culture using clinical stool specimens collected from a cohort of 50 asymptomatic healthy Malawian children that were sampled at 1-month intervals over 12 months. We employed a latent Markov model to estimate the specificities and sensitivities of PCR methods. Results : Ttr and InvA primers were both able to detect all the different Salmonella serovars tested and had superior limits of detection when DNA was extracted after selenite pre-culture. T tr sensitivity and specificity for monoplex-PCR were (99.53%, 95.46%) and for multiplex-PCR (90.30%, 99.30%) respectively. InvA specificity and specificity for using monoplex-PCR was (95.06%, 90.31%) and multiplex-PCRs (89.41%, 98.00%) respectively. Sensitivity and specificity for standard stool culture were 62.88% and 99.99%, respectively. Culture showed the highest PPV (99.73%), and monoplex- ttr had the highest NPV (99.67%). Conclusion: Test methods demonstrated high concordance, although stool culture and monoplexed ttr primers had superior specificity and sensitivity, respectively. The use of selenite pre-enrichment step increased Salmonella detection rate. Taken together, molecular detection methods used here could be used to reveal the true extent of both asymptomatic and symptomatic Salmonella exposure events., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2021 Chirambo AC et al.)

Seasonal trends in tuberculosis (TB) notifications have been observed in several countries but are poorly understood. Explanatory factors may include weather, indoor crowding, seasonal respiratory infections and migration. Using enhanced citywide TB surveillance data collected over nine years in Blantyre, Malawi, we set out to investigate how weather and seasonality affect temporal trends in TB case notification rates (CNRs) across different demographic groups. We used data from prospective enhanced surveillance between April 2011 and December 2018, which systematically collected age, HIV status, sex and case notification dates for all registering TB cases in Blantyre. We retrieved temperature and rainfall data from the Global Surface Summary of the Day weather station database. We calculated weekly trends in TB CNRs, rainfall and temperature, and calculated 10-week moving averages. To investigate the associations between rainfall, temperature and TB CNRs, we fitted generalized linear models using a distributed lag nonlinear framework. The estimated Blantyre population increased from 1,068,151 in April 2011 to 1,264,304 in December 2018, with 15,908 TB cases recorded. Overall annual TB CNRs declined from 222 to 145 per 100,000 between 2012 and 2018, with the largest declines seen in HIV-positive people and adults aged over 20 years old. TB CNRs peaks occurred with increasing temperature in September and October before the onset of increased rainfall, and later in the rainy season during January-March, after sustained rainfall. When lag between a change in weather and TB case notifications was accounted for, higher average rainfall was associated with an equivalent six weeks of relatively lower TB notification rates, whereas there were no changes in TB CNR associated with change in average temperatures. TB CNRs in Blantyre have a seasonal pattern of two cyclical peaks per year, coinciding with the start and end of the rainy season. These trends may be explained by increased transmission at certain times of the year, by limited healthcare access, by patterns of seasonal respiratory infections precipitating cough and care-seeking, or by migratory patterns related to planting and harvesting during the rainy season.

Background: Despite health centres being the first point of contact of care, there are challenges faced in providing care to patients at this level. In Malawi, service provision barriers reported at this level included long waiting times, high numbers of patients and erratic consultation systems which lead to mis-diagnosis and delayed referrals. Proper case management at this level of care is critical to prevent severe disease and deaths in children. We aimed to adopt Emergency, Triage, Assessment and Treatment algorithm (ETAT) to improve ability to identify severe illness in children at primary health centre (PHC) through comparison with secondary level diagnoses., Methods: We implemented ETAT mobile Health (mHealth) at eight urban PHCs in Blantyre, Malawi between April 2017 and September 2018. Health workers and support staff were trained in mHealth ETAT. Stabilisation rooms were established and equipped with emergency equipment. All PHCs used an electronic tracking system to triage and track sick children on referral to secondary care, facilitated by a unique barcode. Support staff at PHC triaged sick children using ETAT Emergency (E), Priority (P) and Queue (Q) symptoms and clinician gave clinical diagnosis. The secondary level diagnosis was considered as a gold standard. We used statistical computing software R (v3.5.1) and used exact 95% binomial confidence intervals when estimating diagnosis agreement proportions., Results: Eight-five percentage of all cases where assigned to E (9.0%) and P (75.5%) groups. Pneumonia was the most common PHC level diagnosis across all three triage groups (E, P, Q). The PHC level diagnosis of trauma was the most commonly confirmed diagnosis at secondary level facility (85.0%), while a PHC diagnosis of pneumonia was least likely to be confirmed at secondary level (39.6%). The secondary level diagnosis least likely to have been identified at PHC level was bronchiolitis 3 (5.2%). The majority of bronchiolitis cases (n = 50; (86.2%) were classified as pneumonia at the PHC level facility., Conclusions: Implementing a sustainable and consistent ETAT approach with stabilisation and treatment capacity at PHC level reinforce staff capacity to diagnose and has the potential to reduce other health system costs through fewer, timely and appropriate referrals.

Insulin resistance (IR) precedes the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and increases cardiovascular disease risk. Although genome wide association studies (GWAS) have uncovered new loci associated with T2D, their contribution to explain the mechanisms leading to decreased insulin sensitivity has been very limited. Thus, new approaches are necessary to explore the genetic architecture of insulin resistance. To that end, we generated an iPSC library across the spectrum of insulin sensitivity in humans. RNA-seq based analysis of 310 induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) clones derived from 100 individuals allowed us to identify differentially expressed genes between insulin resistant and sensitive iPSC lines. Analysis of the co-expression architecture uncovered several insulin sensitivity-relevant gene sub-networks, and predictive network modeling identified a set of key driver genes that regulate these co-expression modules. Functional validation in human adipocytes and skeletal muscle cells (SKMCs) confirmed the relevance of the key driver candidate genes for insulin responsiveness., Competing Interests: I have read the journal's policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: RC is the founder of INTelico Therapeutics LLC.

Adults admitted to hospital with critical illness are vulnerable and at high risk of morbidity and mortality, especially in sub-Saharan African settings where resources are severely limited. As life expectancy increases, patient demographics and healthcare needs are increasingly complex and require integrated approaches. Patient outcomes could be improved by increased critical care provision that standardises healthcare delivery, provides specialist staff and enhanced patient monitoring and facilitates some treatment modalities for organ support. In Malawi, we established a new high-dependency unit within Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, a tertiary referral centre serving the country's Southern region. This unit was designed in partnership with managers, clinicians, nurses and patients to address their needs. In this practice piece, we describe a participatory approach to design and implement a sustainable high-dependency unit for a low-income sub-Saharan African setting. This included: prospective agreement on remit, alignment with existing services, refurbishment of a dedicated physical space, recruitment and training of specialist nurses, development of context-sensitive clinical standard operating procedures, purchase of appropriate and durable equipment and creation of digital clinical information systems. As the global COVID-19 pandemic unfolded, we accelerated unit opening in anticipation of increased clinical requirement and describe how the high-dependency unit responded to this demand., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The relationship between asymptomatic Salmonella exposure within the gastrointestinal tract and Salmonella bacteraemia is poorly understood, in part due to the low sensitivity of stool culture, and the lack of validated molecular diagnostic tests for the detection of Salmonella in stool. The study aimed to determine a reliable molecular diagnostic test for Salmonella in stool specimens. Methods: We optimized an in-house monoplex real time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the detection of Salmonella TTR and InvA genes in stool by including a selenite broth pre-culture step for Salmonella before DNA extraction, and validated their specificity against other local common pathogens. Then we assessed their performance  against a well-validated multiplex PCR targeting the same TTR and InvA genes, and against stool culture using clinical stool specimens collected from a cohort of 50 asymptomatic healthy Malawian children that were sampled at 1-month intervals over a period of 12 months. We employed a latent Markov model to estimate the specificities and sensitivities of PCR methods. Results : TTR and InvA primers were both able to detect all the different Salmonella serovars tested, and had superior limits of detection if DNA was extracted after selenite pre-culture. TTR sensitivity and specificity for monoplex-PCR were (99.53%, 95.46%) and for multiplex-PCR (90.30%, 99.30%) respectively. InvA specificity and specificity for using monoplex-PCR was (95.06%, 90.31%) and multiplex-PCRs (89.41%, 98.00%) respectively. Sensitivity and specificity for standard stool culture were 62.88% and 99.99% respectively. Culture showed the highest PPV (99.73%) and mono-TTR had the highest NPV (99.67%). Conclusion: Test methods demonstrated high concordance although stool culture and monoplexed TTR primers had superior specificity and sensitivity respectively. The use of selenite pre-enrichment step increased Salmonella detection rate. Taken together, molecular detection methods used here could be used to reveal the true extent of both asymptomatic and symptomatic Salmonella exposure events., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2020 Chirambo AC et al.)

Background and Aims: There are uncertainties about the epidemic patterns of HDV infection and its contribution to the burden of liver disease. We estimated the global prevalence of HDV infection and explored its contribution to the development of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among HBsAg-positive people., Methods: We searched Pubmed, EMBASE and Scopus for studies reporting on total or IgG anti-HDV among HBsAg-positive people. Anti-HDV prevalence was estimated using a binomial mixed model, weighting for study quality and population size. The population attributable fraction (PAF) of HDV to cirrhosis and HCC among HBsAg-positive people was estimated using random effects models., Results: We included 282 studies, comprising 376 population samples from 95 countries, which together tested 120,293 HBsAg-positive people for anti-HDV. The estimated anti-HDV prevalence was 4.5% (95% CI 3.6-5.7) among all HBsAg-positive people and 16.4% (14.6-18.6) among those attending hepatology clinics. Worldwide, 0.16% (0.11-0.25) of the general population, totalling 12.0 (8.7-18.7) million people, were estimated to be anti-HDV positive. Prevalence among HBsAg-positive people was highest in Mongolia, the Republic of Moldova and countries in Western and Middle Africa, and was higher in injecting drug users, haemodialysis recipients, men who have sex with men, commercial sex workers, and those with HCV or HIV. Among HBsAg-positive people, preliminary PAF estimates of HDV were 18% (10-26) for cirrhosis and 20% (8-33) for HCC., Conclusions: An estimated 12 million people worldwide have experienced HDV infection, with higher prevalence in certain geographic areas and populations. HDV is a significant contributor to HBV-associated liver disease. More quality data are needed to improve the precision of burden estimates., Lay Summary: We combined all available studies to estimate how many people with hepatitis B also have hepatitis D, a viral infection that only affects people with hepatitis B. About 1 in 22 people with hepatitis B also have hepatitis D, increasing to 1 in 6 when considering people with liver disease. Hepatitis D may cause about 1 in 6 of the cases of cirrhosis and 1 in 5 of the cases of liver cancer that occur in people with hepatitis B. Hepatitis D is an important contributor to the global burden of liver disease., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest AMG reports personal payments and consulting honoraria from Roche Pharma Research & Early Development, Gilead, Janssen, and ViiV, and research funding from Roche Pharma Research & Early Development, Gilead, Janssen and ViiV, outside of the submitted work. Other authors do not declare any conflicts of interest. Please refer to the accompanying ICMJE disclosure forms for further details., (Copyright © 2020 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Streptococcus pneumoniae is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality due to community acquired pneumonia, bacterial meningitis and bacteraemia worldwide. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines protect against invasive disease, but are expensive to manufacture, limited in serotype coverage, associated with serotype replacement and demonstrate reduced effectiveness against mucosal colonisation.  As asymptomatic colonisation of the human nasopharynx is a prerequisite for pneumococcal disease, this is proposed as a marker for novel vaccine efficacy. Our team established a safe and reproducible pneumococcal controlled human infection model at Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (LSTM). This has been used to test vaccine induced protection against nasopharyngeal carriage for ten years in over 1000 participants. We will transfer established standardised operating procedures from LSTM to Malawi and test in up to 36 healthy participants. Primary endpoint: detection of the inoculated pneumococci by classical culture from nasal wash recovered from the participants after pneumococcal challenge. Secondary endpoints: confirmation of robust clinical and laboratory methods for sample capture and processing. Tertiary endpoints: participant acceptability of study and methods. We will test three doses of pneumococcal inoculation (20,000, 80,000 and 160,000 colony forming units [CFUs] per naris) using a parsimonious study design intended to reduce unnecessary exposure to participants. We hypothesise that 80,000 CFUs will induce nasal colonisation in approximately half of participants per established LSTM practice. The aims of the feasibility study are: 1) Establish Streptococcus pneumoniae experimental human pneumococcal carriage in Malawi; 2) Confirm optimal nasopharyngeal pneumococcal challenge dose; 3) Confirm safety and measure potential symptoms; 4) Confirm sampling protocols and laboratory assays; 5) Assess feasibility and acceptability of consent and study procedures. Confirmation of pneumococcal controlled human infection model feasibility in Malawi will enable us to target pneumococcal vaccine candidates for an at-risk population who stand the most to gain from new and improved vaccine strategies., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2020 Morton B et al.)

Background : Many households in low-and-middle income countries face the additional burden of crippling out-of-pocket expenditure when faced with a diagnosis of life-limiting illness. Available evidence suggests that receipt of palliative care supports cost-savings for cancer-affected households. This study will explore the relationship between receipt of palliative care, total household out-of-pocket expenditure on health and wellbeing following a first-time diagnosis of advanced cancer at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital in Blantyre, Malawi. Protocol : Patients and their primary family caregivers will be recruited at the time of cancer diagnosis.  Data on healthcare utilisation, related costs, coping strategies and wellbeing will be gathered using new and existing questionnaires (the Patient-and-Carer Cancer Cost Survey, EQ-5D-3L and the Integrated Palliative Care Outcome Score). Surveys will be repeated at one, three and six months after diagnosis. In the event of the patient's death, a brief five-item questionnaire on funeral costs will be administered to caregivers not less than two weeks following the date of death. Descriptive and Poisson regression analyses will assess the relationship between exposure to palliative care and total household expenditure from baseline to six months. A sample size of 138 households has been calculated in order to detect a medium effect (as determined by Cohen's f 2 =0.15) of receipt of palliative care in a regression model for change in total household out-of-pocket expenditure as a proportion of annual household income. Ethics and dissemination : The study has received ethical approval. Results will be reported using STROBE guidelines and disseminated through scientific meetings, open access publications and a national stakeholder meeting.  Conclusions : This study will provide data on expenditure for healthcare by households affected by advanced cancer in Malawi. We also explore whether receipt of palliative care is associated with a reduction in out-of-pocket expenditure at household level., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2020 Bates MJ et al.)

Invasive Salmonella diseases, both typhoid and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS), are seasonal bloodstream infections causing important morbidity and mortality globally in Africa. The reservoirs and transmission of both are not fully understood. We hypothesised that differences in the time-lagged relationships of rainfall or temperature with typhoid and iNTS incidence might infer differences in epidemiology. We assessed the dynamics of invasive Salmonella incidence over a 16-year period of surveillance, quantifying incidence peaks, seasonal variations, and nonlinear effects of rainfall and temperature exposures on the relative risks of typhoid and iNTS, using monthly lags. An increased relative risk of iNTS incidence was short-lasting but immediate after the onset of the rains, whereas that of typhoid was long-lasting but with a two months delayed start, implying a possible difference in transmission. The relative-risk function of temperature for typhoid was bimodal, with higher risk at both lower (with a 1 month lag) and higher (with a ≥4 months lag) temperatures, possibly reflecting the known patterns of short and long cycle typhoid transmission. In contrast, the relative-risk of iNTS was only increased at lower temperatures, suggesting distinct transmission mechanisms. Environmental and sanitation control strategies may be different for iNTS compared to typhoid disease.

Introduction: In Sub-Saharan Africa, the rising rates of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular diseases (CBD/CVD) are intersecting with an ageing HIV-infected population. The widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) may confer an additive risk and may not completely suppress the risk associated with HIV infection. High-quality prospective studies are needed to determine if HIV-infected patients in Africa are at increased risk of CBD/CVD and to identify factors associated with this risk. This study will test the hypothesis that immune activation and dysfunction, driven by HIV and reactivation of latent herpesvirus infections, lead to increased CBD/CVD risk in Malawian adults aged ≥35 years., Methods and Analysis: We will conduct a single-centre, 36-month, prospective cohort study in 800 HIV-infected patients initiating ART and 190 HIV-uninfected controls in Blantyre, Malawi. Patients and controls will be recruited from government ART clinics and the community, respectively, and will be frequency-matched by 5-year age band and sex. At baseline and follow-up visits, we will measure carotid intima-media thickness and pulse wave velocity as surrogate markers of vasculopathy, and will be used to estimate CBD/CVD risk. Our primary exposures of interest are cytomegalovirus and varicella zoster reactivation, changes in HIV plasma viral load, and markers of systemic inflammation and endothelial function. Multivariable regression models will be developed to assess the study's primary hypothesis. The occurrence of clinical CBD/CVD will be assessed as secondary study endpoints., Ethics and Dissemination: The University of Malawi College of Medicine and Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine research ethics committees approved this work. Our goal is to understand the pathogenesis of CBD/CVD among HIV cohorts on ART, in Sub-Saharan Africa, and provide data to inform future interventional clinical trials. This study runs between May 2017 and August 2020. Results of the main trial will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal., Trial Registration Number: ISRCTN42862937., Competing Interests: Competing interests: SP has academic grants from Sysmex, Gilead Sciences and ViiV Healthcare., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Typhoid fever is endemic across sub-Saharan Africa. However, estimates of the burden of typhoid are undermined by insufficient blood volumes and lack of sensitivity of blood culture. Here, we aimed to address this limitation by exploiting pre-enrichment culture followed by PCR, alongside routine blood culture to improve typhoid case detection. We carried out a prospective diagnostic cohort study and enrolled children (aged 0-4 years) with non-specific febrile disease admitted to a tertiary hospital in Blantyre, Malawi from August 2014 to July 2016. Blood was collected for culture (BC) and real-time PCR after a pre-enrichment culture in tryptone soy broth and ox-bile. DNA was subjected to PCR for invA (Pan-Salmonella), staG (S. Typhi), and fliC (S. Typhimurium) genes. A positive PCR was defined as invA plus either staG or fliC (CT<29). IgM and IgG ELISA against four S. Typhi antigens was also performed. In total, 643 children (median age 1.3 years) with nonspecific febrile disease were enrolled; 31 (4.8%) were BC positive for Salmonella (n = 13 S. Typhi, n = 16 S. Typhimurium, and n = 2 S. Enteritidis). Pre-enrichment culture of blood followed by PCR identified a further 8 S. Typhi and 15 S. Typhimurium positive children. IgM and IgG titres to the S. Typhi antigen STY1498 (haemolysin) were significantly higher in children that were PCR positive but blood culture negative compared to febrile children with all other non-typhoid illnesses. The addition of pre-enrichment culture and PCR increased the case ascertainment of invasive Salmonella disease in children by 62-94%. These data support recent burden estimates that highlight the insensitivity of blood cultures and support the targeting of pre-school children for typhoid vaccine prevention in Africa. Blood culture with real-time PCR following pre-enrichment should be used to further refine estimates of vaccine effectiveness in typhoid vaccine trials., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction: Chronic respiratory disease is a common cause of morbidity in children with HIV infection. We investigated longitudinal lung function trends among HIV-infected children, to describe the evolution of lung disease and assess the effect of anti-retroviral therapy (ART)., Methods: Prospective follow-up of two cohorts of HIV-infected children, aged 6 to 16 years, in Harare, Zimbabwe; one group were ART-naïve at enrolment, the other established on ART for a median of 4.7-years. Standardised spirometric assessments were repeated over a 2-year follow-up period. Forced expiratory volume (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were expressed as Global Lung Initiative defined z-scores (FEV1z and FVCz). Linear mixed-effects regression modelling of lung function was performed, with co-variate parameters evaluated by likelihood ratio comparison., Results: We included 271 ART-naïve and 197 ART-established children (median age 11 years in both groups) incorporating 1144 spirometric assessments. Changes in FEV1 and FVC were associated with age at ART initiation and body mass index for both cohorts. Our models estimate that ART initiation earlier in life could prevent a deterioration of 0.04 FVCz/year. In the ART-naïve cohort, likelihood ratio comparison suggested an improvement in 0.09 FVCz/year during the two years following treatment initiation, but no evidence for this among participants established on ART., Conclusion: Early ART initiation and improved nutrition are positively associated with lung function and are important modifiable factors. An initial improvement in lung growth was seen in the first 2-years following ART initiation, although this did not appear to be sustained beyond this timeframe., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.