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Clustering is an unsupervised learning technique that is useful when working with a large volume of unlabeled data. Complex dynamical systems in real life often entail data streaming from a large number of sources. Although it is desirable to use all source variables to form accurate state estimates, it is often impractical due to large computational power requirements, and sufficiently robust algorithms to handle these cases are not common. We propose a hierarchical time series clustering technique based on symbolic dynamic filtering and Granger causality, which serves as a dimensionality reduction and noise-rejection tool. Our process forms a hierarchy of variables in the multivariate time series with clustering of relevant variables at each level, thus separating out noise and less relevant variables. A new distance metric based on Granger causality is proposed and used for the time series clustering, as well as validated on empirical data sets. Experimental results from occupancy detection and building temperature estimation tasks show fidelity to the empirical data sets while maintaining state-prediction accuracy with substantially reduced data dimensionality., Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures, 1 table

Rapid urbanization, increasing integration of distributed renewable energy resources, energy storage, and electric vehicles introduce new challenges for the power grid. In the US, buildings represent about 70% of the total electricity demand and demand response has the potential for reducing peaks of electricity by about 20%. Unlocking this potential requires control systems that operate on distributed systems, ideally data-driven and model-free. For this, reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have gained increased interest in the past years. However, research in RL for demand response has been lacking the level of standardization that propelled the enormous progress in RL research in the computer science community. To remedy this, we created CityLearn, an OpenAI Gym Environment which allows researchers to implement, share, replicate, and compare their implementations of RL for demand response. Here, we discuss this environment and The CityLearn Challenge, a RL competition we organized to propel further progress in this field., Comment: under revision

Price-based demand response (PBDR) has recently been attributed great economic but also environmental potential. However, the determination of its short-term effects on carbon emissions requires the knowledge of marginal emission factors (MEFs), which compared to grid mix emission factors (XEFs), are cumbersome to calculate due to the complex characteristics of national electricity markets. This study, therefore, proposes two merit order-based methods to approximate hourly MEFs and applies it to readily available datasets from 20 European countries for the years 2017-2019. Based on the resulting electricity prices, MEFs, and XEFs, standardized daily load shifts were simulated to quantify their effects on marginal costs and carbon emissions. Finally, by repeating the load shift simulations for different carbon price levels, the impact of the carbon price on the resulting carbon emissions was analyzed. Interestingly, the simulated price-based load shifts led to increases in operational carbon emissions for 8 of the 20 countries and to an average increase of 2.1% across all 20 countries. Switching from price-based to MEF-based load shifts reduced the corresponding carbon emissions to a decrease of 35%, albeit with 56% lower monetary cost savings compared to the price-based load shifts. Under specific circumstances, PBDR leads to an increase in carbon emissions, mainly due to the economic advantage fuel sources such as lignite and coal have in the merit order. However, as the price of carbon is increased, the correlation between the carbon intensity and the marginal cost of the fuels substantially increases. Therefore, with adequate carbon prices, PBDR can be an effective tool for both economical and environmental improvement.

This paper presents a novel data-driven technique based on the spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN) for energy/power prediction for complex dynamical systems. Built on symbolic dynamic filtering, the STPN framework is used to capture not only the individual system characteristics but also the pair-wise causal dependencies among different sub-systems. For quantifying the causal dependency, a mutual information based metric is presented. An energy prediction approach is subsequently proposed based on the STPN framework. For validating the proposed scheme, two case studies are presented, one involving wind turbine power prediction (supply side energy) using the Western Wind Integration data set generated by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for identifying the spatiotemporal characteristics, and the other, residential electric energy disaggregation (demand side energy) using the Building America 2010 data set from NREL for exploring the temporal features. In the energy disaggregation context, convex programming techniques beyond the STPN framework are developed and applied to achieve improved disaggregation performance., Comment: 31 Pages, 24 Figures Preprint Submitted to Journal of Applied Energy