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We present TRACE, an almost time-reversible hybrid integrator for the planetary N-body problem. Like hybrid symplectic integrators, TRACE can resolve close encounters between particles while retaining many of the accuracy and speed advantages of a fixed time-step symplectic method such the Wisdom-Holman map. TRACE switches methods time-reversibly during close encounters following the prescription of Hernandez & Dehnen. In this paper we describe the derivation and implementation of TRACE and study its performance for a variety of astrophysical systems. In all our test cases, TRACE is at least as accurate and fast as the hybrid symplectic integrator MERCURIUS. In many cases, TRACE's performance is vastly superior to that of MERCURIUS. In test cases with planet-planet close encounters, TRACE is as accurate as MECURIUS with a 12x speed-up. If close encounters with the central star are considered, TRACE achieves good error performance while MERCURIUS fails to give qualitatively correct results. In ensemble tests of violent scattering systems, TRACE matches the high-accuracy IAS15 while providing a 15x speed-up. In large N systems simulating lunar accretion, TRACE qualitatively gives the same results as IAS15 but at a 41x speed-up. We also discuss some cases such as von Zeipel-Lidov-Kozai cycles where hybrid integrators perform poorly and provide some guidance on which integrator to use for which system. TRACE is freely available within the REBOUND package., Comment: Published in MNRAS. Minor changes

Rare event schemes require an approximation of the probability of the rare event as a function of system state. Finding an appropriate reaction coordinate is typically the most challenging aspect of applying a rare event scheme. Here we develop an artificial intelligence (AI) based reaction coordinate that effectively predicts which of a limited number of simulations of the Solar System will go unstable using a convolutional neural network classifier. The performance of the algorithm does not degrade significantly even 3.5 billion years before the instability. We overcome the class imbalance intrinsic to rare event problems using a combination of minority class oversampling, increased minority class weighting, and pulling multiple non-overlapping training sequences from simulations. Our success suggests that AI may provide a promising avenue for developing reaction coordinates without detailed theoretical knowledge of the system., Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure

We present new almost time-reversible integrators for solution of planetary systems consisting of "planets" and a dominant mass ("star"). The algorithms can be considered adaptive generalizations of the Wisdom--Holman method, in which all pairs of planets can be assigned timesteps. These timesteps, along with the global timestep, can be adapted time-reversibly, often at no appreciable additional compute cost, without sacrificing any of the long-term error benefits of the Wisdom--Holman method. The method can also be considered a simpler and more flexible version of the \texttt{SYMBA} symplectic code. We perform tests on several challenging problems with close encounters and find the reversible algorithms are up to $2.6$ times faster than a code based on \texttt{SYMBA}. The codes presented here are available on Github. We also find adapting a global timestep reversibly and discretely must be done in block-synchronized manner or similar., Comment: 11 pages, 7 Figures. Matches accepted MNRAS version

Mercury's orbit can destabilize, generally resulting in a collision with either Venus or the Sun. Chaotic evolution can cause g1 to decrease to the approximately constant value of g5 and create a resonance. Previous work has approximated the variation in g1 as stochastic diffusion, which leads to a phenomological model that can reproduce the Mercury instability statistics of secular and N-body models on timescales longer than 10 Gyr. Here we show that the diffusive model underpredicts the Mercury instability probability by a factor of 3-10,000 on timescales less than 5 Gyr, the remaining lifespan of the Solar System. This is because g1 exhibits larger variations on short timescales than the diffusive model would suggest. To better model the variations on short timescales, we build a new subdiffusive phenomological model for g1. Subdiffusion is similar to diffusion but exhibits larger displacements on short timescales and smaller displacements on long timescales. We choose model parameters based on the behavior of the g1 trajectories in the N-body simulations, leading to a tuned model that can reproduce Mercury instability statistics from 1-40 Gyr. This work motivates fundamental questions in Solar System dynamics: Why does subdiffusion better approximate the variation in g1 than standard diffusion? Why is there an upper bound on g1, but not a lower bound that would prevent it from reaching g5?, Comment: accepted at ApJ

We introduce ASSIST, a software package for ephemeris-quality integrations of test particles. ASSIST is an extension of the REBOUND framework and makes use of its IAS15 integrator to integrate test particle trajectories in the field of the Sun, Moon, planets, and 16 massive asteroids, with the positions of the masses coming from the JPL DE441 ephemeris and its associated asteroid perturber file. The package incorporates the most significant gravitational harmonics and general relativistic corrections. ASSIST also accounts for position- and velocity-dependent non-gravitational effects. The first order variational equations are included for all terms to support orbit fitting and covariance mapping. This new framework is meant to provide an open-source package written in a modern language to enable high-precision orbital analysis and science by the small body community. ASSIST is open source, freely distributed under the GNU General Public license, version 3., Comment: Submitted to PSJ (27 January 2023), Revised (28 March 2023)

We present a simple algorithm to switch between $N$-body time integrators in a reversible way. We apply it to planetary systems undergoing arbitrarily close encounters and highly eccentric orbits, but the potential applications are broader. Upgrading an ordinary non-reversible switching integrator to a reversible one is straightforward and introduces no appreciable computational burden in our tests. Our method checks if the integrator during the time step violates a time-symmetric selection condition and redoes the step if necessary. In our experiments a few percent of steps would have violated the condition without our corrections. By eliminating them the algorithm avoids long-term error accumulation, of several orders magnitude in some cases., Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures. Matches accepted MNRAS version

The long-term stability of the Solar System is an issue of significant scientific and philosophical interest. The mechanism leading to instability is Mercury's eccentricity being pumped up so high that Mercury either collides with Venus or is scattered into the Sun. Previously, only three five-billion-year $N$-body ensembles of the Solar System with thousands of simulations have been run to assess long-term stability. We generate two additional ensembles, each with 2750 members, and make them publicly available at \texttt{https://archive.org/details/@dorianabbot}. We find that accurate Mercury instability statistics can be obtained by (1) including only the Sun and the 8 planets, (2) using a simple Wisdom-Holman scheme without correctors, (3) using a basic representation of general relativity, and (4) using a time step of 3.16 days. By combining our Solar System ensembles with previous ensembles we form a 9,601-member ensemble of ensembles. In this ensemble of ensembles, the logarithm of the frequency of a Mercury instability event increases linearly with time between 1.3 and 5 Gyr, suggesting that a single mechanism is responsible for Mercury instabilities in this time range and that this mechanism becomes more active as time progresses. Our work provides a robust estimate of Mercury instability statistics over the next five billion years, outlines methodologies that may be useful for exoplanet system investigations, and provides two large ensembles of publicly available Solar System integrations that can serve as testbeds for theoretical ideas as well as training sets for artificial intelligence schemes., Comment: accepted at ApJ

Numerical integrations of the Solar System have been carried out for decades. Their results have been used, for example, to determine whether the Solar System is chaotic, whether Mercury's orbit is stable, or to help discern Earth's climate history. We argue that all of the past studies we consider in this work are affected by numerical chaos to different degrees, affecting the possible orbits and instability probability of Mercury, sometimes significantly. We show how to eliminate the effects of numerical chaos by resolving Mercury's pericentre passage. We also show that several higher order symplectic maps do not exhibit significant differences in resolving pericentre passage of Mercury (at fixed time step), making their advantages suspect for calculating long-term orbits. Resolving pericentre passage affects a wide array of orbital numerical studies, like exoplanet studies, studies of the galactic centre, and other $N$-body problems., Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures. Matches accepted MNRAS version

When fitting N-body models to astronomical data - including transit times, radial velocity, and astrometric positions at observed times - the derivatives of the model outputs with respect to the initial conditions can help with model optimization and posterior sampling. Here we describe a general-purpose symplectic integrator for arbitrary orbital architectures, including those with close encounters, which we have recast to maintain numerical stability and precision for small step sizes. We compute the derivatives of the N-body coordinates and velocities as a function of time with respect to the initial conditions and masses by propagating the Jacobian along with the N-body integration. For the first time we obtain the derivatives of the transit times with respect to the initial conditions and masses using the chain rule, which is quicker and more accurate than using finite differences or automatic differentiation. We implement this algorithm in an open source package, NbodyGradient.jl, written in the Julia language, which has been used in the optimization and error analysis of transit-timing variations in the TRAPPIST-1 system. We present tests of the accuracy and precision of the code, and show that it compares favorably in speed to other integrators which are written in C., Comment: 24 pages; 7 figures. Revised for submission to MNRAS. Links in equations are provided to code at the repository https://github.com/ericagol/NbodyGradient.jl Some documentation and example scripts for running the code are provided in the repository

It is well known that numerical errors grow exponentially in $N$-body simulations of gravitational bound stellar systems, but it is not well understood how the accuracy parameters of algorithms affect the physical evolution in simulations. By using the hybrid $N$-body code, PeTar, we investigate how escapers and the structure evolution of collisional stellar systems (e.g., star clusters) depend on the accuracy of long-range and short-range interactions. We study a group of simulations of ideal low-mass star clusters in which the accuracy parameters are varied. We find that although the number of escapers is different in individual simulations, its distribution from all simulations can be described by Poisson statistics. The density profile also has a similar feature. By using a self-consistent set-up of the accuracy parameters for long- and short-range interactions, such that orbits are resolved well enough, the physical evolution of the models is identical. But when the short-range accuracy is too low, a nonphysical dynamical evolution can easily occur; this is not the case for long-range interactions. This strengthens the need to include a proper algorithm (e.g. regularization methods) in the realistic modelling of collisional stellar systems. We also demonstrate that energy-conservation is not a good indicator to monitor the quality of the simulations. The energy error of the system is controlled by the hardest binary, and thus, it may not reflect the ensemble error of the global system., Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, submitted to MNRAS

Symplectic integrators are widely used for the study of planetary dynamics and other $N$-body problems. In a study of the outer Solar system, we demonstrate that individual symplectic integrations can yield biased errors in the semi-major axes and possibly other orbital elements. The bias is resolved by studying an ensemble of initial conditions of the outer Solar system. Such statistical sampling could significantly improve measurement of planetary system properties like their secular frequencies. We also compared the distributions of action-like variables between high and low accuracy integrations; traditional statistical metrics are unable to distinguish the distribution functions., Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure. Accepted by RNAAS

We present EnckeHH, a new, highly accurate code for orbital dynamics of perturbed Keplerian systems such as planetary systems or galactic centre systems. It solves Encke's equations of motion, which assume perturbed Keplerian orbits. By incorporating numerical techniques, we have made the code follow optimal roundoff error growth. In a $10^ {12}$ day integration of the outer Solar System, EnckeHH was $3.5$ orders of magnitude more accurate than IAS15 in a fixed time step test. Adaptive steps are recommended for IAS15. Through study of efficiency plots, we show that EnckeHH reaches significantly higher accuracy than the Rebound integrators IAS15 and WHCKL for fixed step size., Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, 1 table. Matches accepted MNRAS version. Instructions on code usage available at https://github.com/matthewholman/rebound/tree/master/examples/encke_hh

We have collected transit times for the TRAPPIST-1 system with the Spitzer Space Telescope over four years. We add to these ground-based, HST and K2 transit time measurements, and revisit an N-body dynamical analysis of the seven-planet system using our complete set of times from which we refine the mass ratios of the planets to the star. We next carry out a photodynamical analysis of the Spitzer light curves to derive the density of the host star and the planet densities. We find that all seven planets' densities may be described with a single rocky mass-radius relation which is depleted in iron relative to Earth, with Fe 21 wt% versus 32 wt% for Earth, and otherwise Earth-like in composition. Alternatively, the planets may have an Earth-like composition, but enhanced in light elements, such as a surface water layer or a core-free structure with oxidized iron in the mantle. We measure planet masses to a precision of 3-5%, equivalent to a radial-velocity (RV) precision of 2.5 cm/sec, or two orders of magnitude more precise than current RV capabilities. We find the eccentricities of the planets are very small; the orbits are extremely coplanar; and the system is stable on 10 Myr timescales. We find evidence of infrequent timing outliers which we cannot explain with an eighth planet; we instead account for the outliers using a robust likelihood function. We forecast JWST timing observations, and speculate on possible implications of the planet densities for the formation, migration and evolution of the planet system., Comment: Final version to be published in the Planetary Sciences Journal. 56 pages, 30 figures. Data from the paper and a complete table of forecast JWST times may be found at https://github.com/ericagol/TRAPPIST1_Spitzer/

$N$-body integrations are used to model a wide range of astrophysical dynamics, but they suffer from errors which make their orbits diverge exponentially in time from the correct orbits. Over long time-scales, their reliability needs to be established. We address this reliability by running a three-body planetary system over about $200$ e-folding times. Using nearby initial conditions, we can construct statistics of the long-term phase-space structure and compare to rough estimates of resonant widths of the system. We compared statistics for a wide range of numerical methods, including a Runge--Kutta method, Wisdom--Holman method, symplectic corrector methods, and a method by Laskar and Robutel. "Improving" an integrator did not increase the phase space accuracy, but simply increasing the number of initial conditions did. In fact, the statistics of a higher order symplectic corrector method were inconsistent with the other methods in one test., Comment: 14 pages, 13 figures, 4 tables. Matches accepted MNRAS version

Symplectic methods, in particular the Wisdom-Holman map, have revolutionized our ability to model the long-term, conservative dynamics of planetary systems. However, many astrophysically important effects are dissipative. The consequences of incorporating such forces into otherwise symplectic schemes is not always clear. We show that moving to a general framework of non-commutative operators (dissipative or not) clarifies many of these questions, and that several important properties of symplectic schemes carry over to the general case. In particular, we show that explicit splitting schemes generically exploit symmetries in the applied external forces which often strongly suppress integration errors. Furthermore, we demonstrate that so-called `symplectic correctors' (which reduce energy errors by orders of magnitude at fixed computational cost) apply equally well to weakly dissipative systems and can thus be more generally thought of as `weak splitting correctors.' Finally, we show that previously advocated approaches of incorporating additional forces into symplectic methods work well for dissipative forces, but give qualitatively wrong answers for conservative but velocity-dependent forces like post-Newtonian corrections. We release REBOUNDx, an open-source C library for incorporating additional effects into REBOUND N-body integrations, together with a convenient Python wrapper. All effects are machine-independent and we provide a binary format that interfaces with the SimulationArchive class in REBOUND to enable the sharing and reproducibility of results. Users can add effects from a list of pre-implemented astrophysical forces, or contribute new ones., Comment: Submitted. Paper repository: https://github.com/dtamayo/reboundxpaper, Library Documentation: https://reboundx.readthedocs.io/en/latest/

Symplectic integrators are a foundation to the study of dynamical $N$-body phenomena, at scales ranging from from planetary to cosmological. These integrators preserve the Poincar\'e invariants of Hamiltonian dynamics. The $N$-body Hamiltonian has another, perhaps overlooked, symmetry: it is smooth, or, in other words, it has infinite differentiability class order (DCO) for particle separations greater than $0$. Popular symplectic integrators, such as hybrid methods or block adaptive stepping methods do not come from smooth Hamiltonians and it is perhaps unclear whether they should. We investigate the importance of this symmetry by considering hybrid integrators, whose DCO can be tuned easily. Hybrid methods are smooth, except at a finite number of phase space points. We study chaotic planetary orbits in a test considered by Wisdom. We find that increasing smoothness, at negligible extra computational cost in particular tests, improves the Jacobi constant error of the orbits by about $5$ orders of magnitude in long-term simulations. The results from this work suggest that smoothness of the $N$-body Hamiltonian is a property worth preserving in simulations., Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures. Matches accepted MNRAS version

Hybrid symplectic integrators such as MERCURY are widely used to simulate complex dynamical phenomena in planetary dynamics that could otherwise not be investigated. A hybrid integrator achieves high accuracy during close encounters by using a high order integration scheme for the duration of the encounter while otherwise using a standard 2nd order Wisdom-Holman scheme, thereby optimizing both speed and accuracy. In this paper we reassess the criteria for choosing the switching function that determines which parts of the Hamiltonian are integrated with the high order integrator. We show that the original motivation for choosing a polynomial switching function in MERCURY is not correct. We explain the nevertheless excellent performance of the MERCURY integrator and then explore a wide range of different switching functions including an infinitely differentiable function and a Heaviside function. We find that using a Heaviside function leads to a significantly simpler scheme compared to MERCURY, while maintaining the same accuracy in short term simulations., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS, 9 pages, 2 figures

Symplectic integrators are the preferred method of solving conservative $N$-body problems in cosmological, stellar cluster, and planetary system simulations because of their superior error properties and ability to compute orbital stability. Newtonian gravity is scale free, and there is no preferred time or length scale: this is at odds with construction of traditional symplectic integrators, in which there is an explicit timescale in the time-step. Additional timescales have been incorporated into symplectic integration using various techniques, such as hybrid methods and potential decompositions in planetary astrophysics, integrator sub-cycling in cosmology, and block time-stepping in stellar astrophysics, at the cost of breaking or potentially breaking symplecticity at a few points in phase space. The justification provided, if any, for this procedure is that these trouble points where the symplectic structure is broken should be rarely or never encountered in practice. We consider the case of hybrid integrators, which are used ubiquitously in astrophysics and other fields, to show that symplecticity breaks at a few points are sufficient to destroy beneficial properties of symplectic integrators, which is at odds with some statements in the literature. We show how to solve this problem in the case of hybrid integrators by requiring Lipschitz continuity of the equations of motion. For other techniques, like time step subdivision, {consequences to this this problem are not explored here}, and the fact that symplectic structure is broken should be taken into account by $N$-body simulators, who may find an alternative non-symplectic integrator performs similarly., Comment: 8 pages, 9 figures. Matches accepted MNRAS version

Context. The TRAPPIST-1 system hosts seven Earth-sized, temperate exoplanets orbiting an ultra-cool dwarf star. As such, it represents a remarkable setting to study the formation and evolution of terrestrial planets that formed in the same protoplanetary disk. While the sizes of the TRAPPIST-1 planets are all known to better than 5% precision, their densities have significant uncertainties (between 28% and 95%) because of poor constraints on the planet's masses. Aims.The goal of this paper is to improve our knowledge of the TRAPPIST-1 planetary masses and densities using transit-timing variations (TTV). The complexity of the TTV inversion problem is known to be particularly acute in multi-planetary systems (convergence issues, degeneracies and size of the parameter space), especially for resonant chain systems such as TRAPPIST-1. Methods. To overcome these challenges, we have used a novel method that employs a genetic algorithm coupled to a full N-body integrator that we applied to a set of 284 individual transit timings. This approach enables us to efficiently explore the parameter space and to derive reliable masses and densities from TTVs for all seven planets. Results. Our new masses result in a five- to eight-fold improvement on the planetary density uncertainties, with precisions ranging from 5% to 12%. These updated values provide new insights into the bulk structure of the TRAPPIST-1 planets. We find that TRAPPIST-1\,c and e likely have largely rocky interiors, while planets b, d, f, g, and h require envelopes of volatiles in the form of thick atmospheres, oceans, or ice, in most cases with water mass fractions less than 5%., Comment: in press in Astronomy & Astrophysics, 24 pages, 13 figures

Calculating the long term solution of ordinary differential equations, such as those of the $N$-body problem, is central to understanding a wide range of dynamics in astrophysics, from galaxy formation to planetary chaos. Because generally no analytic solution exists to these equations, researchers rely on numerical methods which are prone to various errors. In an effort to mitigate these errors, powerful symplectic integrators have been employed. But symplectic integrators can be severely limited because they are not compatible with adaptive stepping and thus they have difficulty accommodating changing time and length scales. A promising alternative is time-reversible integration, which can handle adaptive time stepping, but the errors due to time-reversible integration in astrophysics are less understood. The goal of this work is to study analytically and numerically the errors caused by time-reversible integration, with and without adaptive stepping. We derive the modified differential equations of these integrators to perform the error analysis. As an example, we consider the trapezoidal rule, a reversible non-symplectic integrator, and show it gives secular energy error increase for a pendulum problem and for a H\'{e}non---Heiles orbit. We conclude that using reversible integration does not guarantee good energy conservation and that, when possible, use of symplectic integrators is favored. We also show that time-symmetry and time-reversibility are properties that are distinct for an integrator., Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures, 3, tables. Matches accepted MNRAS version

The symplectic Wisdom-Holman map revolutionized long-term integrations of planetary systems. There is freedom in such methods of how to split the Hamiltonian and which coordinate system to employ, and several options have been proposed in the literature. These choices lead to different integration errors, which we study analytically and numerically. The Wisdom-Holman method in Jacobi coordinates and the method of Hernandez, H16, compare favorably and avoid problems of some of the other maps, such as incorrect center-of-mass position or truncation errors even in the one-planet case. We use H16 to compute the evolution of Pluto's orbital elements over 500 million years in a new calculation., Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures, 1 table. Matches accepted MNRAS version

We study analytically and experimentally certain symplectic and time-reversible N-body integrators which employ a Kepler solver for each pair-wise interaction, including the method of Hernandez & Bertschinger (2015). Owing to the Kepler solver, these methods treat close two-body interactions correctly, while close three-body encounters contribute to the truncation error at second order and above. The second-order errors can be corrected to obtain a fourth-order scheme with little computational overhead. We generalise this map to an integrator which employs a Kepler solver only for selected interactions and yet retains fourth-order accuracy without backward steps. In this case, however, two-body encounters not treated via a Kepler solver contribute to the truncation error., Comment: 17 pages, re-submitted to MNRAS

We apply one of the exactly symplectic integrators, that we call HB15, of \cite{HB15}, along with the Kepler problem solver of \cite{WH15}, to solve planetary system $N$-body problems. We compare the method to Wisdom-Holman methods (WH) in the \texttt{MERCURY} software package, the \texttt{MERCURY} switching integrator, and others and find HB15 to be the most efficient method or tied for the most efficient method in many cases. Unlike WH, HB15 solved $N$-body problems exhibiting close encounters with small, acceptable error, although frequent encounters slowed the code. Switching maps like \texttt{MERCURY} change between two methods and are not exactly symplectic. We carry out careful tests on their properties and suggest they must be used with caution. We then use different integrators to solve a 3-body problem consisting of a binary planet orbiting a star. For all tested tolerances and time steps, \texttt{MERCURY} unbinds the binary after 0 to 25 years. However, in the solutions of HB15, a time-symmetric Hermite code, and a symplectic Yoshida method, the binary remains bound for $>1000$ years. The methods' solutions are qualitatively different, despite small errors in the first integrals in most cases. Several checks suggest the qualitative binary behavior of HB15's solution is correct. The Bulirsch-Stoer and Radau methods in the \texttt{MERCURY} package also unbind the binary before a time of 50 years, suggesting this dynamical error is due to a \texttt{MERCURY} bug., Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures. Matches accepted MNRAS version

We derive and present a fast and accurate solution of the initial value problem for Keplerian motion in universal variables that does not use the Stumpff series. We find that it performs better than methods based on the Stumpff series., Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures. Accepted by MNRAS, resubmitted because of a typo in the title, added author affiliations

We present a new symplectic integrator designed for collisional gravitational $N$-body problems which makes use of Kepler solvers. The integrator is also reversible and conserves 9 integrals of motion of the $N$-body problem to machine precision. The integrator is second order, but the order can easily be increased by the method of \citeauthor{yos90}. We use fixed time step in all tests studied in this paper to ensure preservation of symplecticity. We study small $N$ collisional problems and perform comparisons with typically used integrators. In particular, we find comparable or better performance when compared to the 4th order Hermite method and much better performance than adaptive time step symplectic integrators introduced previously. We find better performance compared to SAKURA, a non-symplectic, non-time-reversible integrator based on a different two-body decomposition of the $N$-body problem. The integrator is a promising tool in collisional gravitational dynamics., Comment: 11 pages, 7 Figures. Minor changes made and appendix added. To appear in MNRAS: (September 11, 2015) 452 (2): 1934-1944