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1. Perimeter confinements of basic health zones and COVID-19 incidence in Madrid, Spain

Author

García-García David, Herranz-Hernandez Rafael, Rojas-Benedicto Ayelén, León-Gómez Inmaculada, Larrauri Amparo, Peñuelas Marina, Guerrero-Vadillo María, Ramis Rebeca, and Gómez-Barroso Diana

Subjects
Covid-19, Madrid, Spain, Perimeter closures, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract

Abstract Background A unique policy of perimeter closures of Basic Health Zones (small administrative health units) was implemented in the Autonomous Community of Madrid from September 21st 2020 to May 23rd 2021 to face the COVID-19 pandemic. Aim To assess the impact of local perimeter confinements on the 14-days cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 during the second wave of the pandemic in Madrid, Spain. Methods We compare the errors in estimation of two families of mathematical models: ones that include the perimeter closures as explanatory covariables and ones that do not, in search of a significant improvement in estimation of one family over the other. We incorporate leave-one-out cross-validation, and at each step of this process we select the best model in AIC score from a family of 15 differently tuned ones. Results The two families of models provided very similar estimations, for a 1- to 3-weeks delay in observed cumulative incidence, and also when restricting the analysis to only those Basic Health Zones that were subject to at least one closure during the time under study. In all cases the correlation between the errors yielded by both families of models was higher than 0.98 (±10− 3 95% CI), and the average difference of estimated 14-days cumulative incidence was smaller than 1.49 (±0.33 95% CI). Conclusion Our analysis suggests that the perimeter closures by Basic Health Zone did not have a significant effect on the epidemic curve in Madrid.

Published
2022
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2. Enfermedades transmitidas por mosquito AEDES SPP. En España: resultados de la vigilancia de Dengue, enfermedad por virus CHikungunya y Zika según los casos notificados a la Red Nacional de Vigilancia Epidemiológica de 2014 a 2018

Author

Herranz-Hernandez, Rafael, Díaz García, Oliva, Gómez-Barroso, Diana, and Fernández- Martínez, Beatriz

Subjects
Dengue, España, Zika, salud pública, vigilancia epidemiológica, Chikungunya
Abstract

[ES] Las enfermedades causadas por virus chikungunya (VCHIK), dengue (VDEN) y Zika (VZK) son principalmente importadas en España. Son de declaración obligatoria desde 2015 (VCHIK y VDEN) y 2016 (VZK). Este informe consta de tres partes, en las que se describen los resultados de la vigilancia y la calidad de los datos. Se incluyeron los casos del 01/01/2014 al 31/12/2018. Hubo 691 notificaciones de VCHIK, 838 de VDEN, 541 de VZK y 5 casos congénitos. La mayoría fueron de Madrid y Cataluña y más frecuente entre 25-44 años. Un 15% precisaron hospitalización, no se notificaron defunciones y hubo variables con porcentaje elevado de datos faltantes. Un porcentaje elevado de casos se notificó en verano, en periodo de actividad de A. albopictus y fueron importados de regiones endémicas, sobre todo por visitas familiares o turismo. Se identifican perfiles de viajero. La vigilancia junto a otras medidas son útiles para prevenir la aparición de casos endémicos. [EN] Most of the chikungunya (VCHIK), dengue (VDEN) and Zika virus (VZK) disease cases are imported in Spain. They are notifiable since 2015 (VCHIK y VDEN) and 2016 (VZK) through the national surveillance network. This report consists of three parts, where the main surveillance results and data quality are described. Cases from 01/01/2014 to 31/12/2018 were included. There were 691 cases of VCHIK, 838 of VDEN, 541 of VZK and 5 congenital cases. The majority were from Madrid or Catalonia and were more frequent between ages 25-44 years. Hospitalization was required for 15%, no deaths were reported and several variables had high proportions of missing data. A high percentage of cases were reported in summer, during A. albopictus season and were imported from endemic regions, especially after visiting friends/relatives or tourism. Traveler patterns were identified. Surveillance activities together with additional measures are considered to be useful to prevent autochthonous cases.

Published
2021

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